ICAO - Effects of Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) on Civil Aviation

Effects of Novel Coronavirus
(COVID-19) on Civil Aviation:
Economic Impact Analysis
Montréal, Canada
6 July 2020
Air Transport Bureau

Contents
• Executive Summary: Economic
Impact in Brief
• Scenario Building
– Analytical Consideration
– Shapes of Economic Recession and
Recovery
– Indicative Scenarios and Paths Forward
• Scenario Estimates
– Impact on Passenger Seat Capacity (Supply)
– Impact on Passenger Numbers (Demand)
– Impact on Gross Passenger Operating
Revenues of Airlines
2
• Appendix
A. Overview of Early Impact
B. Scenario Assumptions in Detail
C. Summary of Key Impact Indicators
D. Estimated Results at Route Group
Level
E. Summary of Analysis by Other
Organizations

Executive Summary: Economic Impact in Brief
3
Figures and estimates herein are subject to substantial changes, and will be updated with the situation
evolving and more information available.

The latest estimates indicate that the possible COVID-19 impact on world
scheduled passenger traffic for the full year 2020, compared to Baseline
(business as usual, originally-planned), would be:
– Overall reduction ranging from 42% to 52% of seats offered by airlines
– Overall reduction of 2,369 to 2,947 million passengers
– Approx. USD 316 to 390 billion potential loss of gross operating
revenues of airlines
The impacts depend on duration and magnitude of the outbreak and
containment measures, the degree of consumer confidence for air travel, and
economic conditions, etc.
4
Estimated results in brief:
World total passenger traffic

5
Estimated results in brief:
International and domestic
International passenger traffic for 2020, compared to Baseline
– Approx. USD 213 to 257 billion potential loss of gross operating revenues of
airlines
Domestic passenger traffic for 2020, compared to Baseline
– Approx. USD 102 to 133 billion potential loss of gross operating revenues of
airlines

Source: ICAO Air Transport Reporting Form A and A-S plus ICAO estimates.
World passenger traffic collapses with
unprecedented decline in history
6
World passenger traffic evolution
1945 – 2020*
-48% to -61%
decline in world total
passengers in 2020*

Drastic capacity cut along with
dramatic drop in demand
Comparison of passenger numbers and capacity
(Green shoot recovery for domestic while international remains stagnant)
Source: ICAO ADS-B and OAG plus estimates 7

Source: ICAO estimates
Approximately USD 170 billion
passenger revenue loss from Jan to Jun 2020
8
Note: Compared to Baseline (business as usual, originally-planned)
-6
-60
-44
-12
-9
-40
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
Africa Asia/Pacific Europe
Latin
America/Caribbean Middle East North America
Revenueloss(USD,billions)
Jun 2020
May 2020
Apr 2020
Mar 2020
Feb 2020
Jan 2020

Due to extreme uncertainty,
4 different paths are considered
9Source: ICAO estimates based on ICAO ADS-B, OAG, ICAO-ICM MIDT, ICAO LTF, ICAO RCA, IATA Economics, and IMF/World Bank Economic Outlook
Scenarios for passenger seat capacity compared to Baseline (business as usual)
Actual path
(January to May 2020)
V-shaped path (reference only,
based on the latest airlines schedules)
“Nike swoosh”-shaped path
W-shaped path
U-shaped path
L-shaped path

Estimated impact on international passenger
traffic and revenues by region for 2020
10
Capacity:
-57% to -68%
Passenger:
-52 to -62 million
Revenue (USD):
-10 to -13 billion
Capacity:
-55% to -67%
Passenger:
-331 to -399 million
Revenue (USD):
-68 to -83 billion
Capacity:
-55% to -68%
Passenger:
Revenue (USD):
-77 to -92 billion
Capacity:
-51% to -62%
Passenger:
-72 to -85 million
Revenue (USD):
-14 to -17 billion
Capacity:
-54% to -65%
Passenger:
-96 to -114 million
Revenue (USD):
-17 to -20 billion
Capacity:
-55% to -66%
Passenger:
Revenue (USD):
-27 to -32 billion

Estimated impact on domestic passenger
traffic and revenues by region for 2020
11
Capacity:
-47% to -58%
Passenger:
-24 to -29 million
Revenue (USD):
-2 to -3 billion
Capacity:
-30% to -37%
Passenger:
Revenue (USD):
-33 to -43 billion
Capacity:
-36% to -45%
Passenger:
Revenue (USD):
-11 to -14 billion
Capacity:
-43% to -54%
Passenger:
Revenue (USD):
-9 to -12 billion
Capacity:
-40% to -51%
Passenger:
-18 to -24 million
Revenue (USD):
-2 to -2 billion
Capacity:
-31% to -40%
Passenger:
Revenue (USD):
-45 to -60 billion

• Air passenger traffic: An overall reduction of air passengers (both international and domestic)
ranging from 48% to 61% in 2020 compared to 2019 (by ICAO)
• Airports: An estimated loss of over 50% of passenger traffic and 57% or over USD 97 billion
airport revenues in 2020 compared to business as usual (by ACI)
• Airlines: A 54.7% decline of revenue passenger kilometres (RPKs, both international and
domestic) in 2020 compared to 2019 (by IATA)
• Tourism: A decline in international tourism receipts of between USD 910 to 1,170 billion in 2020,
compared to the USD 1.5 trillion generated in 2019, with 100% of worldwide destinations having
travel restrictions (by UNWTO)
• Trade: A fall of global merchandise trade volume by between 13% and 32% in 2020 compared
to 2019 (by WTO)
• Global economy: A projected -4.9% to -5.2% contraction in world GDP in 2020, far worse than
during the 2008–09 financial crisis (by IMF and World Bank)
12
Global impact of COVID-19 on
aviation, tourism, trade and economy

Scenario Building
13
Previous two (2) scenarios and six (6) different paths were restructured with new two (2) scenarios and
four (4) different paths for scheduled passenger traffic till December 2020.

Scope of analysis
14
• Analysis focuses on simultaneous supply shock and drop in demand
– in a near-term, i.e. monthly profile from January to December 2020
– in terms of scheduled passenger traffic globally
• Taking into account the heterogeneity, distinction is made:
– between international and domestic
– by six (6) geographical region and/or 50 route groups used in ICAO’s long-term
traffic forecasts (LTF)
• Analysis is based on forward-looking scenarios, which will be continuously
adjusted and updated

Analytical Consideration
15
• Geographical disparity of international-domestic passenger traffic mix
• Difference in market size among regions
• Potential difference in resilience and speed of recovery
• Outbreak timing that impacts when traffic would bottom out
• Gap between what is scheduled and actual operations

Share of international-domestic passenger traffic by region (2019)
16
International-domestic passenger traffic mix
exhibits significant geographical disparity
Source: ICAO estimates based on ICAO ADS-B, OAG, ICAO LTF, ICAO Statistical Reporting, and IATA Economics

Source: ICAO long-term traffic forecasts, ADS-B and estimates
Europe and Asia/Pacific accounted for over 70%
of the world international traffic pre-COVID-19
Number of International Passengers by Region
(2019, based on from/to State)
17

North America and China account for over half of
world domestic passenger traffic
18
Number of Domestic Passengers by Route Group (2019)

Asia/Pacific and North America have experienced 20% to 25% less decline in
domestic passenger traffic than international
19
Domestic passenger traffic may be more resilient
than international in some markets
Domestic seat capacity reduction
(compared to baseline)
International seat capacity reduction
(compared to baseline)
-100%
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
Africa Asia/Pacific Europe Latin
America/Caribbean
Middle East North America World Total
Seatcapacityreduction(%)
January 2020 February 2020 March 2020 April 2020 May 2020 June 2020
-100%
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
Africa Asia/Pacific Europe Latin
America/Caribbean
Middle East North America World Total
Seatcapacityreduction(%)
January 2020 February 2020 March 2020 April 2020 May 2020 June 2020

Domestic passenger traffic may recover
ahead of international
Source: ICAO ADS-B operation data
Domestic passenger traffic in China already bottomed out in mid-February,
and capacity offered in June was recovered to around 76% of last year
20

The outbreak timing impacts when domestic
traffic would bottom out in each region
Capacity evolution of two largest domestic markets
China and United States since January 2020
21

Source: Estimates based on ICAO ADS-B operation data and OAG
Regions with higher share of intra-region
traffic are expected to recover faster
22
Almost 80% of international seats offered in Asia/Pacific and Europe
were for intra-regional traffic (2019)

Source: OAG
A gap exists between what is scheduled
and actual operations
23
Airlines announced/planned resumption of flights in early May, however,
over half of which were subsequently withdrawn
International schedules Domestic schedules
100
150
200
250
300
Apr 2020 May 2020 Jun 2020 Jul 2020 Aug 2020 Sep 2020 Oct 2020 Nov 2020 Dec 2020
Numberofseatsscheduled(millions)
06-Jul-20
29-Jun-20
22-Jun-20
15-Jun-20
08-Jun-20
25-May-20
11-May-20
27-Apr-20
0
50
100
150
200
Apr 2020 May 2020 Jun 2020 Jul 2020 Aug 2020 Sep 2020 Oct 2020 Nov 2020 Dec 2020
Numberofseatsscheduled(millions)
06-Jul-20
29-Jun-20
22-Jun-20
15-Jun-20
08-Jun-20
25-May-20
11-May-20
27-Apr-20

Shapes of Economic Recession and Recovery
24
Informal classification to describe different types of recessions:
• V-shaped: normal shape for recession, a brief period of sharp economic decline
followed by quick/smooth recovery
• U-shaped: prolonged contraction and muted recovery to trend line growth
• L-shaped (depression): long-term downturn in economic activity, steep drop
followed by a flat line with possibility of not returning to trend line growth
• W-shaped: a double-dip recession, “down up down up” pattern before full recovery
• “Nike swoosh”-shaped*: bounce back sharply but blunt quickly (* Brookings Institution/WEF)

What “recession shape” can be assumed
given uncertainties surrounding the outlook?
25Source: IMF Word Economic Outlook (April 2020)
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/04/14/weo-april-2020
World’s GDP Projections (by IMF)
• How long will the pandemic last and what
will be the severity levels?
• How deep and how long will the global
recession be?
• How long will lockdowns and travel
restrictions continue?
• How fast will consumer confidence in air
travel be restored?
• Will there be a structural shift in industry
and consumers’ behaviors?
• How long can the air transport industry
withstand the finical adversity?

Previous outbreaks/pandemics had a V-shaped
impact on air transport in Asia/Pacific
Source: IATA COVID-19 Updated Impact Assessment (dated 24 March 2020)
The impact of COVID-
19 has already
surpassed the 2003
SARS outbreak which
had resulted in
reduction of annual
RPKs by 8% and USD 6
billion revenues for
Asia/Pacific airlines.
The 6-month
recovery path of
SARS might not
apply to today’s
situation.
26
https://www.iata.org/en/iata-repository/publications/economic-reports/third-impact-assessment/

9/11 and global financial crisis had a U/L-shaped
impact on air transport in United States
Source: A4A Tracking the Impacts of COVID-19 - Some Early Indicators (updated on 29 April 2020) 27
https://www.airlines.org/dataset/impact-of-covid19-data-updates/

Indicative Scenarios and Paths Forward
28
As overall severity and duration of the COVID-19 pandemic are still uncertain, four (4)
different recovery paths under two (2) indicative scenarios are developed:
• Baseline: counterfactual scenario, in which the COVID-19 pandemic does not
occur, that is, originally-planned or business as usual
• Scenario 1: two (2) different paths (similar to Nike swoosh- and W-shaped)
• Scenario 2: two (2) different paths (similar to U- and L-shaped)
• Reference: information only, based on latest airline schedules (similar to V-shaped)

• Notwithstanding the elevated uncertainty surrounding the outlook, a scenario
analysis could help gauge potential economic implications of the COVID-19 pandemic
• Scenarios are not forecasts of what is most likely to happen. Given rapidly changing
circumstances, they are merely indicative of possible paths or consequential
outcomes out of many
• The exact path (depth, length and shape) will depend upon various factors, inter alia,
duration and magnitude of the outbreak and containment measures, availability of
government assistance, consumer confidence, and economic conditions
• With the situation evolving and more information available, scenarios will be adjusted
as necessary
29
What does Scenario mean?

Key assumptions
30
• International and domestic passenger traffic has separate scenarios/paths
• Scenarios/paths are differentiated in terms of supply and demand, i.e.
– Scale of output or seat capacity change
– Degree of consumer confidence that can be translated into demand or load factor as a proxy
• Supply and demand are influenced by:
– Different timing and speed of recovery by region, international/domestic, and intra-/inter-region
– Global economic contraction
• No consideration is made to social distancing requirements on aircraft, etc.
• Detailed scenario assumptions are summarized in Appendix B

Baseline & Reference
31
• Baseline: originally-planned or business as usual
– Counterfactual hypothesis that are expected to occur in the absence of COVID-19 pandemic
– Supply: airlines’ originally-planned schedules supplemented by trend line growth
– Demand: trend line growth of demand from 2019 level
• Reference: V-shaped
– Information-only scenario that reflects airlines’ most recent expectation or a “signal” of airlines’
plan to the market (not necessarily realistic)
– Supply: based on latest update of airline schedules filed up to December, which are adjusted
weekly by airlines according to the expectation of the evolving situation (quite often managing
capacity for a short period due to the uncertainties)
– Demand: quickly returning to Baseline level

Scenarios 1 & 2
32
Scenario 1: Nike swoosh- and W-shaped
• International
– Path 1: Smooth capacity recovery to two thirds of
Baseline level by December with pent-up demand
– Path 1a: Capacity to start with smooth recovery but
then turn back down due to over-capacity
• Domestic
– Path 1: Swift capacity rebound to 92% of Baseline by
December pushed by pent-up demand
– Path 1a: Capacity to start with smooth recovery but
then turn back down due to over-capacity
Scenario 2: U- and L-shaped
• International
– Path 2: Slow progression of capacity recovery to 55%,
picking up more demand in 4Q
– Path 2a: Recovery to one third at diminishing speed
due to respite and continuous demand slump
• Domestic
– Path 2: Gradual capacity recovery to 85%, picking up
more demand in 4Q
– Path 2a: Capacity recovery to two thirds at diminishing
speed due to sluggish demand growth
In the following analysis, international and domestic scenarios having the same path number are
linked with each other, although different combination of scenarios/paths would be possible

Scenario Estimates
33
Figures and estimates herein reflect the latest operational data and schedules filed by airlines
but are subject to substantial changes, and will be updated with the situation evolving
and more information available.

34
Three (3) key impact indictors
• Three (3) key impact indicators under four (4) paths of two (2) scenarios:
– Impact on passenger seat capacity (supply, % change)
– Impact on passenger numbers (demand)
– Impact on gross passenger operating revenues of airlines
• Comparison to:
– Baseline scenario
– 2019 level (year-on-year)
– Reference scenario
• Break-down by:
– International and domestic
– Six (6) geographical regions
Estimation based on actual results of January to
June 2020 are used for the key impact indicators.
Appendix C details the key impact indicators while
Appendix D presents estimation based on actual
results by route group.

Impact on Passenger Seat Capacity (Supply)
• Prior to the outbreak, airlines had planned to increase seat capacity in 2020 by 2.8%
(international by 2.5% and domestic by 3.0%), compared to 2019.
• According to the latest estimates, passenger seat capacity could instead drop from the above
Baseline by 42% to 52% (international by 55% to 67% and domestic by 33% to 41%).
• This capacity level would be 40% to 51% (international 54% to 66% and domestic 31% to 39%)
below the 2019 level.
• Biggest capacity reduction (%) is expected to be in Middle East, followed by Africa and Europe.
35

(+2.8% YoY)
6.3%
10.1%
6.1% 5.5%
6.5% 6.6%
4.2%
2.9%
4.2%
4.0%
5.5%
7.0%
6.2%
7.2%
4.4%
2.0%
2.7%
2.1%
2.5%
3.0%
2.7%
3.3%
3.5%
4.0%
-0.1%
3.8%
2.2%
1.7%
0.2%
2.2%
1.8%
1.3%
1.2%
-0.6% -0.7%
1.6%
0.8%
3.7% 3.1%
4.0%
4.7%
5.8%
2.8% 2.7%
4.0%
2.1%
1.0%
0.7%
1.7%
4.7%
1.4%
3.4%
8.3%
2.5%
2.0%
0.9%
1.4%
-0.5%
-1.2%
1.5%
0.8%
4.2%
0.5%
2.8%
3.5%
4.6%
5.7%
3.0%
5.1%
1.7%
0.8%
2.4%
3.0%
5.4%
2.8%
2.4%
2.7%
3.1% 3.1%
2.4%
2.9%
1.7%
1.6%
2.8%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
11.0%
Jan 2020 Feb 2020 Mar 2020 Apr 2020 May 2020 Jun 2020 Jul 2020 Aug 2020 Sep 2020 Oct 2020 Nov 2020 Dec 2020
SeatcapacitygrowthYoY
Africa Asia/Pacific Europe Latin America/Caribbean Middle East North America Total
Baseline seat capacity compared to 2019
36Source: ICAO estimates based on ICAO ADS-B, OAG, Routes Online and airline websites
International + Domestic

5.0%
7.2%
4.1%
1.9%
3.7% 3.7%
2.2%
0.2%
1.7%
2.9%
4.6%
6.8%
5.7%
7.3%
4.6%
1.6%
2.1%
1.6%
2.2%
2.3%
2.7%
2.5%
2.5%
3.2%
-1.7%
-0.6%
-1.9%
-0.5%
-0.7% -0.7% -0.7%
-0.7%
-0.7%
-1.7% -1.7%
-2.2%
3.5%
6.2% 7.1%
5.7%
6.2%
8.3%
4.2%
3.3%
4.2% 4.1%
3.3%
2.9%
-6.8%
-3.5%
-7.1%
-0.7%
-0.7% -0.7% -0.7%
-0.7%
-0.7%
-10.5%
-11.0%
-8.1%
2.2%
5.4%
1.8%
3.8%
4.4%
5.8%
7.1%
3.8%
6.2%
3.0%
2.0%
4.0%
3.4%
5.6%
3.0% 2.4%
2.8%
3.2%
3.5%
2.4%
3.4%
2.1% 1.8%
2.7%
-12.0%
-10.0%
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
7.1%
11.7%
7.2%
7.5%
8.0% 8.0%
5.2%
4.2%
5.6%
4.7%
6.1%
7.2%7.3%
6.8%
4.0%
2.8%
3.9%
3.4%
3.1%
4.5%
2.7%
5.0% 5.9%
6.0%
0.6%
5.7%
4.0%
2.4%
0.5%
3.2%
2.6%
1.9%
1.9%
-0.2%
-0.2%
3.1%
-3.8%
-0.5%
-3.7%
1.0%
1.8% 1.3%
0.2%
1.7%
3.4%
-2.3%
-3.5%
-3.2%
4.2%
7.1%
3.9%
4.5%
11.0%
3.4%
2.7%
1.3%
2.0%
2.2%
1.4%
4.0%
-5.7%
-2.0%
-5.6%
-1.9% -1.1% -1.2%
-0.7%
-1.1%
-0.2%
-5.2% -5.8%
-5.4%
2.3%
5.2%
2.6% 2.4%
2.4% 3.0%
2.4%
2.3%
2.2%
1.1% 1.3%
3.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
Baseline seat capacity compared to 2019
International Domestic(+2.5% YoY) (+3.0% YoY)

Scenarios 1 & 2 (World total):
Seat capacity change compared to Baseline & 2019
International + Domestic International + Domestic
-1%
-14%
-38%
-82%
-81%
-60%
-35%
-26%
-21%
-18%
-46%
-42%
-51%
-48%
-44%
-73%
-65%
-53%
-46%
-38%
-28%
-59%
-54%
-51% -49%
-48%
-54%
-27%
-10%
-7%
-12%
-13%
-90%
-80%
-70%
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
Actual
Scenario 1
Scenario 1a
Scenario 2
Scenario 2a
Reference
2%
-9%
-36%
-82%
-80%
-59%
-33%
-25% -20%
-15%
-45%
-41%
-50%
-47%
-43%
-73%
-64%
-58%
-51%
-45%
-37%
-26%
-53%
-50%
-48%
-46%
-52%
-25%
-8%
-6%
-11%
-11%
-90%
-80%
-70%
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
Actual
Scenario 1
Scenario 1a
Scenario 2
Scenario 2a
Reference
(-42% to -52% from Baseline) (-40% to -51% YoY)

Seat capacity change compared to Baseline
International Domestic
0%
-10%
-48%
-94% -93%
-90%
-81%
-50%
-42%
-37%
-33%
-63%
-60%
-71%
-69%
-65%
-84%
-71%
-65%
-57%
-46%
-79%
-74%
-71%
-70%
-68%
-73%
-40%
-20%
-14%
-11%
-14%
-100%
-90%
-80%
-70%
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
Actual
Scenario 1
Scenario 1a
Scenario 2
Scenario 2a
Reference
-2%
-16%
-31%
-74%
-72%
-60%
-45%
-32%
-23%
-15%
-11%
-8%
-32%
-29%
-36%
-34%
-30%
-51%
-43%
-39%
-32%
-25%
-15%
-39%
-36%
-35%
-34%
-39%
-17%
-3% -2%
-13%
-13%
-100%
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
Actual
Scenario 1
Scenario 1a
Scenario 2
Scenario 2a
Reference
(-55% to -67% from Baseline) (-33% to -41% from Baseline)

Seat capacity change compared to 2019
2%
-5%
-46%
-93% -93%
-90%
-80%
-49%
-41%
-36%
-31%
-62%
-59%
-71%
-69%
-64%
-84%
-71%
-64%
-56%
-45%
-78%
-74%
-71%
-69%
-67%
-72%
-39%
-18%
-13%
-10%
-11%
-100%
-90%
-80%
-70%
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
Actual
Scenario 1
Scenario 1a
Scenario 2
Scenario 2a
Reference
1%
-12%
-29%
-73%
-71%
-59%
-43%
-20%
-14%
-9%
-5%
-31%
-26%
-35%
-33%
-28%
-49%
-42%
-36%
-31%
-24%
-13%
-37%
-35% -34%
-32%
-37%
-15%
0% 0%
-11%
-11%
-100%
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
Actual
Scenario 1
Scenario 1a
Scenario 2
Scenario 2a
Reference
International Domestic(-54% to -66% YoY) (-31% to -39% YoY)

41
Scenarios 1 & 2 (Africa):
Source: ICAO estimates based on ICAO ADS-B, OAG, Routes Online and airline websites
-4%
-5%
-43%
-95%
-94%
-92%
-83%
-57%
-49%
-44%
-40%
-68%
-66%
-75%
-71%
-67%
-77%
-71%
-64%
-54%
-83%
-79%
-77%
-75% -74%
-69%
-38%
-16%
-8%
-11%
-15%
-100%
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
Actual
Scenario 1
Scenario 1a
Scenario 2
Scenario 2a
Reference
-4%
-2%
-31%
-97%
-95%
-90%
-71%
-43%
-34%
-29%
-24%
-55%
-52%
-61%
-59%
-55%
-78%
-63%
-56%
-47%
-35%
-69%
-64%
-61%
-59%
-57%
-69%
-26%
-19%
-22%
-36%
-40%
-100%
-90%
-80%
-70%
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
Actual
Scenario 1
Scenario 1a
Scenario 2
Scenario 2a
Reference
International Domestic (-47% to -58% from Baseline)(-57% to -68% from Baseline)

Scenarios 1 & 2 (Asia/Pacific):
-1%
-27%
-63%
-91% -91% -91%
-85%
-49%
-40%
-34%
-30%
-62%
-59%
-72%
-69%
-65%
-85%
-78%
-70%
-63%
-55%
-44%
-73%
-70%
-69%
-67%
-85%
-43%
-21%
-19%
-17%
-19%
-100%
-90%
-80%
-70%
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
Actual
Scenario 1
Scenario 1a
Scenario 2
Scenario 2a
Reference
-6%
-39%
-42%
-70%
-61%
-48%
-35%
-16%
-10%
-7%
-4%
-25%
-21%
-27%
-25%
-21%
-40%
-34%
-30%
-25%
-19%
-11%
-31%
-28%
-27%
-26%-25%
-5%
-1%
-8%
-30%
-30%
-80%
-70%
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
Actual
Scenario 1
Scenario 1a
Scenario 2
Scenario 2a
Reference
International Domestic(-55% to -67% from Baseline) (-30% to -37% from Baseline)

Scenarios 1 & 2 (Europe):
-1%
-3%
-44%
-95% -95%
-90%
-79%
-48%
-39%
-34%
-30%
-62%
-58%
-71%
-69%
-65%
-84%
-70%
-63%
-54%
-43%
-78%
-73%
-70%
-68% -67%
-66%
-36%
-20%
-13%
-9%
-13%
-100%
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
Actual
Scenario 1
Scenario 1a
Scenario 2
Scenario 2a
Reference
3% 2%
-31%
-88% -87%
-68%
-49%
-26%
-17%
-11%
-7%
-38%
-34%
-43%
-42%
-38%
-56%
-41%
-33%
-24%
-12%
-47%
-42%
-39%
-37%
-35%
-37%
-11%
-2% -1%
-5% -3%
-100%
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
Actual
Scenario 1
Scenario 1a
Scenario 2
Scenario 2a
Reference

44
Scenarios 1 & 2 (Latina America/Caribbean):
Source: ICAO estimates based on ICAO ADS-B, OAG, Routes Online and airline websites
2% 3%
-26%
-93% -92%
-90%
-80%
-54%
-46%
-41%
-37%
-65%
-63%
-72% -69%
-65%
-85%
-74%
-68%
-61%
-51%
-80%
-76%
-74%
-72%
-71%
-79%
-60%
-27%
-17%
-12%
-8%
-100%
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
Actual
Scenario 1
Scenario 1a
Scenario 2
Scenario 2a
Reference
1% 1%
-30%
-91% -91%
-85%
-66%
-38%
-29%
-23%
-19%
-50%
-46%
-55%
-53%
-49%
-73%
-58%
-50%
-41%
-29%
-64%
-59%
-56% -54%
-52%
-66%
-29%
3%
4% 3%
1%
-100%
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
Actual
Scenario 1
Scenario 1a
Scenario 2
Scenario 2a
Reference

Scenarios 1 & 2 (Middle East):
-1%
-3%
-51%
-92% -92%
-78%
-53%
-45%
-40%
-36%
-64%
-61%
-69%
-66%
-62%
-87%
-73%
-67%
-61%
-51%
-79%
-75%
-73%
-71%
-70%
-66%
-31%
-6%
-4%
-11%
-15%
-100%
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
Actual
Scenario 1
Scenario 1a
Scenario 2
Scenario 2a
Reference
-9%
6%
-38%
-96%
-94%
-74%
-55%
-27%
-18%
-13%
-8%
-39%
-36%
-45%
-43%
-39%
-62%
-48%
-40%
-31%
-19%
-54%
-48%
-45%
-43%
-41%
-49%
-20% -16%
-9%
-27% -30%
-100%
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
Actual
Scenario 1
Scenario 1a
Scenario 2
Scenario 2a
Reference

Scenarios 1 & 2 (North America):
5%
2%
-27%
-91%
-93%
-90%
-82%
-58%
-51%
-46%
-42%
-69%
-66%
-73% -70%
-66%
-86%
-77%
-73%
-66%
-57%
-83%
-80%
-77%
-76%
-75%
-82%
-54%
-28%
-15%
-3%
-3%
-100%
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
Actual
Scenario 1
Scenario 1a
Scenario 2
Scenario 2a
Reference
3%
6%
-14%
-67%
-73%
-49%
-25%
-17%
-13%
-9%
-35%
-32%
-39%
-38%
-34%
-55%
-47%
-42%
-36%
-28%
-18%
-43%
-40%
-39%
-37%
-65%
-49%
-32%
-7%
5%
8%
7%
-80%
-70%
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
Actual
Scenario 1
Scenario 1a
Scenario 2
Scenario 2a
Reference

Impact on Passenger Numbers (Demand)
• Given the originally-planned seat capacity, passenger demand could have increased 151
million for 2020 (international 56 million and domestic 95 million), compared to 2019.
• According to the latest estimates, passenger demand could instead drop from the above
Baseline by 2,369 to 2,947 million (international by 1,212 to 1,451 million and domestic by
1,157 to 1,496 million).
• This demand level would be 2,218 to 2,796 million (international by 1,155 to 1,394 million
and domestic by 1,063 to 1,402 million) below the 2019 level.
• The most substantial demand reduction (in total number) is expected to be in Asia/Pacific,
followed by Europe, hitting its summer travel peak season.
47

621 866 592 569 581 679 492 363 445 401 530 743
9,508
10,320
6,939
3,425
4,317
3,586
4,528 5,123
4,408
5,476 5,656
6,621
448
3,334
2,546
2,297 840
3,360
3,021 2,409
2,181 84
-1
1,898
459
1,208
1,092
1,302
1,514
1,797 1,115 1,007
1,240
773 468
411
331
708
275
598 1,254
459
425
226
275
-27 -115
317
900
3,232
860
2,741
3,537
4,658
5,969
3,169 4,474
1,817
940
2,456
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
PassengerNumber(thousand)
Africa Asia/Pacific Europe Latin America/Caribbean Middle East North America
Baseline passenger numbers compared to 2019
48
(+151 million)

446 632
441 500 465 557 410 354 382 294 365 481
3,365 2,839
1,828
1,318
1,744 1,542
1,581
2,215
1,233
2,264
2,573
2,868
702
3,343
2,875
2,262
869
3,391
3,054
2,441
2,212 381
262
2,283
-384
-3
-372
146
223
168
76 219
332
-172 -295 -318
563
808
514
614
1,270
475
443 244
291
307
209
581
-720
-191
-748
-217
-122 -142
-63 -124
4
-641
-660 -701
-2,000
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
175 234 151 68 116 122 82 9 63 108 166 262
6,143
7,481
5,110
2,107
2,573
2,043
2,947 2,908
3,175 3,212 3,083
3,754
-254 -9
-329
35
-30 -31 -33 -33 -31
-297 -263 -385
842
1,211
1,464
1,156
1,290
1,629
1,039
788
907 945
762
729
-232
-100
-239
-17 -16 -16 -18 -18 -16
-333 -324 -264
1,620
3,423
1,608
2,957
3,659
4,799
6,032
3,293
4,469
2,458
1,600
3,157
-2,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
Baseline passenger numbers compared to 2019
49Source: ICAO estimates based on ICAO ADS-B, OAG, ICAO LTF, ICAO Statistical Reporting, and IATA Economics
Note: Number of international passengers departing from each country and territory, which are aggregated at the regional level to avoid double counting
International Domestic(+56 million) (+95 million)

351.90
328.54
370.51 374.70
386.62
401.24
432.29 430.57
385.99 391.51
355.44
373.15364.17
348.20
382.81
385.63
398.67
415.78
447.84
442.87
399.02 400.04
362.92
385.59
358.90
281.06
172.01
31.34
49.00
77.17
201.14
229.15
267.56
262.17
293.52
141.31
185.40
174.97
160.02 157.82
183.55
110.73
131.37
137.96
166.06 183.40
240.96
129.99 129.93
144.81 142.52
158.84171.31
280.18
324.10
347.39
300.82
320.09
0.00
50.00
100.00
150.00
200.00
250.00
300.00
350.00
400.00
450.00
500.00
PassengerNumber(million)
2019
Baseline
Actual
Scenario 1
Scenario 1a
Scenario 2
Scenario 2a
Reference
Passenger numbers compared to Baseline & 2019
50
Source: ICAO estimates based on ICAO ADS-B, OAG, ICAO LTF, ICAO Statistical Reporting, IATA Economics, and IMF/World Bank Economic Outlook
(-2,369 to -2,947 million from Baseline and -2,218 to -2,796 million from 2019)

51
International
Domestic
142.54
129.65
147.31
157.18
160.01
172.63
187.34
188.64
165.85
160.49
138.67
149.81146.52
137.08
151.85
161.81
164.46
178.63
192.84 193.99
170.30
162.92
141.12
155.00
147.70
116.58
61.46
3.57
4.42 8.92
25.38
55.43
69.55
81.11
78.01
92.58
47.20
43.97
31.35 30.96
41.34
30.55
38.71 44.93
68.50
17.01
25.13 27.45
30.24 28.49
34.75
38.56
93.38
116.18
124.07
113.37
122.81
0.00
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
120.00
140.00
160.00
180.00
200.00
2019
Baseline
Actual
Scenario 1
Scenario 1a
Scenario 2
Scenario 2a
Reference
209.36
198.88
223.20
217.51
226.61 228.61
244.96 241.93
220.15
231.02
216.77
223.33217.65
211.12
230.97
223.82
234.20
237.16
255.01
248.88
228.72
237.11
221.80
230.59
211.21
110.55
27.76
44.59
68.25
145.72
159.60
186.45
184.16
200.94
115.93
138.21
131.00
128.67
126.86
142.21
106.24 107.40
127.36
138.47
172.46
93.72 104.86 102.48
114.57 114.03
124.09
132.75
186.80
207.92
223.32
187.45
197.28
0.00
50.00
100.00
150.00
200.00
250.00
2019
Baseline
Actual
Scenario 1
Scenario 1a
Scenario 2
Scenario 2a
Reference
(-1,212 to -1,451 million from Baseline and -1,155 to -1,394 million from 2019) (-1,157 to -1,496 million from Baseline and -1,063 to -1,402 million from 2019)

52
6.07
5.32
6.13
6.28
5.82
6.52
7.41
7.79
6.56
6.20
5.91
6.556.51
5.95
6.57
6.78
6.29
7.08
7.82
8.15
6.94
6.49
6.27
7.03
6.30
5.43
3.07
0.07
0.10
0.24
1.92
2.38
2.76
3.02
3.70
0.85
1.61
1.45
1.05
1.21
1.67
0.92
1.15
1.58
2.57
0.49
0.76 0.82 0.88
0.95
1.20
1.68
3.93
4.87
5.21
5.01
5.41
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
2019
Baseline
Actual
Scenario 1
Scenario 1a
Scenario 2
Scenario 2a
Reference
3.47
3.20
3.56
3.46
3.07
3.21
3.61
3.68
3.50
3.57 3.56
3.82
3.64
3.43
3.71
3.53
3.19
3.33
3.70 3.69
3.56
3.68
3.72
4.08
3.42
3.17
2.07
0.03 0.03 0.13
0.71
1.29
1.70
2.09
2.30
2.72
1.18
1.21
1.09
1.20
1.50
0.65
0.84
1.11
1.49
2.28
0.40
0.62
0.73
0.90
1.04
1.30
0.80
2.23
2.53
2.60
2.17
2.27
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
2019
Baseline
Actual
Scenario 1
Scenario 1a
Scenario 2
Scenario 2a
Reference
(-52 to -62 million from Baseline and -47 to -56 million from 2019) (-24 to -29 million from Baseline and -22 to -28 million from 2019)

43.31
39.59
42.36
42.03
40.96
41.69
44.83
45.32
40.16
41.79
40.97
44.99
46.68
42.43
44.19
43.35
42.70
43.23
46.41
47.54
41.40
44.05
43.54
47.86
45.99
26.18
11.81
1.40 1.53 1.91
13.89
17.32
22.60 24.95
29.68
4.74
11.73
10.72
8.39
9.47
12.71
7.48
10.78
14.37
22.25
3.94
6.21
6.70
8.36
9.14
11.25
4.92
21.96
27.79
31.89 33.04
36.04
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
40.00
45.00
50.00
2019
Baseline
Actual
Scenario 1
Scenario 1a
Scenario 2
Scenario 2a
Reference
97.11
94.56
98.53
96.85
99.16 97.96
106.52 107.52
99.39
104.31
99.87
99.63
103.25
102.04
103.64
98.96
101.73 100.00
109.46 110.43
102.56
107.52
102.96
103.39
93.28
51.54
42.75
20.32
30.29
41.54
73.99 78.85
91.16
90.87
95.07
61.11
71.08
67.84
68.66
68.28
72.96
57.87 57.43
65.89
70.63
81.48
52.50
57.87 56.12
61.01
60.84
62.96
73.20
97.30
96.91
97.06
70.75
71.78
0.00
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
120.00
2019
Baseline
Actual
Scenario 1
Scenario 1a
Scenario 2
Scenario 2a
Reference
53

56.19
52.40
61.24
72.13
78.12
86.21
93.32 93.85
84.83
78.50
58.64
60.12
56.89
55.75
64.11
74.39
78.99
89.60
96.37 96.30
87.04
78.88
58.90
62.41
57.59
52.82
28.05
1.08
1.79 4.61
28.92
37.31
40.99
33.97
38.77
14.21
24.78
23.95
15.72
13.21
16.87
16.97
20.24 20.29
29.34
9.10
13.47
15.23 15.84
12.88
15.06
24.60
50.01
60.02 60.88
48.66
49.96
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
80.00
90.00
100.00
2019
Baseline
Actual
Scenario 1
Scenario 1a
Scenario 2
Scenario 2a
Reference
22.89
21.74
25.07 24.98
26.46
28.15
29.31 29.09
27.91
26.70
23.72
23.21
22.64
21.73
24.75 25.02 26.43
28.12 29.28 29.06
27.88
26.40
23.46
22.83
23.38
21.79
13.27
1.66
1.95
6.01
12.05
15.09
17.85
19.50
18.40
18.99
14.09
13.71
11.88
11.13 11.89
8.88
10.98 11.91
13.15 14.18
17.42
10.64
10.99 11.37 10.99
11.48
15.28
22.39
24.53
24.00
20.51
20.68
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
2019
Baseline
Actual
Scenario 1
Scenario 1a
Scenario 2
Scenario 2a
Reference
54

11.36
9.91
11.26
10.23
9.96
10.22
11.21
10.58
8.70
8.96
9.61
11.20
10.97
9.91
10.89 10.38
10.18
10.39
11.28
10.80
9.04
8.78
9.31
10.88
10.02
6.29
0.29 0.31
0.53
1.51
2.84
3.38
4.02
4.78
6.07
2.41
2.14
1.65
2.04
2.89
1.44
1.84
2.67
4.38
0.95
1.26 1.30
1.45
1.69
2.20
1.74
3.40
5.59
6.44
7.36
9.15
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
2019
Baseline
Actual
Scenario 1
Scenario 1a
Scenario 2
Scenario 2a
Reference
20.25
17.54
18.56
18.02
18.68
18.14
21.08
19.73
18.38
19.72
18.93
20.50
21.09
18.75
20.02
19.18
19.97
19.77
22.12
20.51
19.28
20.66
19.69
21.23
21.45
18.59
12.10
1.27
1.56
2.65
7.01
9.50
11.34
14.32
14.70
16.92
9.13
9.06
8.11
8.24
9.92
5.35
6.63
7.26
9.37
10.68
14.24
6.63
7.12
8.28 8.34
9.32
7.17
13.91
19.47
21.59
20.51
21.87
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
2019
Baseline
Actual
Scenario 1
Scenario 1a
Scenario 2
Scenario 2a
Reference
55
Scenarios 1 & 2 (Latina America/Caribbean):

12.35
10.78
12.13
12.68
11.15
12.80
14.35
15.14
12.40
12.15
11.62
13.17
12.91
11.59
12.65
13.30
12.42
13.27
14.79
15.38
12.69
12.45
11.83
13.75
13.23
4.90
0.34 0.32
0.89
2.14
4.16 4.74
5.68 6.05
7.69
3.51
2.95
2.43
2.71
3.88
2.00
2.55
3.32
5.47
1.37
1.90 1.83
2.03
2.13
2.82
3.57
8.40
9.99
10.50
9.47
10.72
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
16.00
2019
Baseline
Actual
Scenario 1
Scenario 1a
Scenario 2
Scenario 2a
Reference
3.55
3.06
3.45
3.49
3.41 3.42
3.77 3.79
3.27 3.23
3.00
3.363.32
2.96
3.21
3.47
3.40 3.40
3.75 3.78
3.25
2.90
2.67
3.09
3.19 3.08
1.58
0.06 0.10
0.55
1.32
1.94 2.06
2.13 2.10
2.60
1.80
1.54
1.26
1.24
1.61
1.18 1.16 1.26
1.46
2.21
0.91
1.14
1.06 1.06
1.10
1.41
1.56
2.68
2.49
2.48
1.83
2.06
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
2019
Baseline
Actual
Scenario 1
Scenario 1a
Scenario 2
Scenario 2a
Reference
56

57
13.28
11.64
14.19
13.82 14.01
15.20 16.22
15.96
13.20
12.91
11.92
13.78
12.56
11.45
13.44
13.61
13.88
15.06
16.16
15.84
13.20
12.26
11.26
13.07
13.34
11.23
7.35
0.40 0.37
3.70
4.41
5.06
5.24
6.67
1.92
3.14
2.75
2.13 2.33
3.32
0.74
1.16
1.75
2.15
2.70
4.49
1.54 1.58
1.68 1.70
2.232.05
5.69
7.92
9.16 9.83
11.53
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
16.00
18.00
2019
Baseline
Actual
Scenario 1
Scenario 1a
Scenario 2
Scenario 2a
Reference
62.09
58.79
74.03
70.71
75.83 77.73
80.66
78.12
67.71
73.49
67.70
72.81
63.71
62.21
75.64
73.67
79.48 82.53
86.70
81.41
72.18
75.95
69.30
75.96
66.49 66.32
38.78
4.41
10.66
33.72
43.91 47.80
57.25
55.80
64.64
40.93
37.65
37.67
36.77
44.32
17.37
28.92
28.80
36.57
40.03
54.84
25.67 27.95
26.47
31.94
31.71
37.63
34.74
48.30
62.00
75.58
71.68
78.62
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
80.00
90.00
2019
Baseline
Actual
Scenario 1
Scenario 1a
Scenario 2
Scenario 2a
Reference

Impact on Gross Passenger Operating Revenues of Airlines
• With the originally-planned seat capacity and trend line growth of demand, airlines’ gross
passenger operating revenues could have increased USD 18 billion for 2020 (USD 9 billion
from international and USD 9 billon from domestic), compared to 2019.
• According to the latest estimates, airlines’ revenues could instead plummet USD 316 to 390
billion (international USD 213 to 257 billion and domestic USD 102 to 133 billion) below the
Baseline, or USD 298 to 373 billion (international USD 204 to 248 billion and domestic USD
94 to 125 billion) below the 2019 level.
• Approximately 60% of revenue loss would be recorded by Asia/Pacific and Europe.
58

99 147 99 96 99 104 72 53 69 54 76 112
1,203
1,202
749
361
471
395 460
607
388
743
786
924
32
390
205
256
136
363
362
286
249
13
5
220
-16
90
42
131 159
182 125
129
143
45
-3
1
77
134
61
103
219
79
62
32
43 18
15
75
32
375
30
311
428
545
710
384
541
121 15
212
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Millions(USD)
Baseline passenger revenues compared to 2019
International + Domestic (+18 billion USD)

84
126
85 90 88 93 64 53 64 44 62 89
735 636
364
237
322 277
287
435
200
477
555
634
52
391
232
254
138
366 365
288
252
37
26
251
-83
-6
-78
36
52
47
40
62
69
-30 -63 -56
99
143
83
104
221
80
64
34
44
49
45
100
-156
-22
-156
-32
4
-13
9
1
22
-164
-170 -155
-250
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
1,500
Millions(USD)
16 21 13 6 10
11
7 1 6 10 15 23
467
566
385
124
149
118
173 172 187
266 231
289
-21 -1
-27
3
-2 -3
-3 -3 -3
-24 -21 -31
66
97
119
95
106
135
86
66
74
75
60
57
-22 -9
-22
-2
-2 -2 -2 -2 -1
-31 -30 -25
188
397
187
343
425
557
700
382
519
285
186
367
-100
100
300
500
700
900
1,100
Millions(USD)
Note: The international revenues are gross passenger operating revenues of all airlines serving international routes from each country and territory, which are aggregated at the regional
level (revenues of international routes to each country and territory were removed to avoid double counting).
Baseline passenger revenues compared to 2019
International Domestic(+9 billion USD) (+9 billion USD)

-50
-7,845
-26,855
-45,564 -45,106
-33,229
-23,361
-18,696
-14,666
-13,979
-41,703
-35,418
-30,516
-32,784
-28,449
-28,741
-44,778 -45,194
-42,306
-35,062
-31,680
-24,927
-21,024
-42,453
-36,080
-34,360
-30,160
-31,709
-38,366
-23,412
-10,856
-7,430 -7,196
-7,963
-50,000
-45,000
-40,000
-35,000
-30,000
-25,000
-20,000
-15,000
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
Millions(USD)
Actual
Scenario 1
Scenario 1a
Scenario 2
Scenario 2a
Reference
1,376
-5,507
-25,670
-44,306
-43,594 -43,112
-39,912
-31,739
-21,928
-17,703
-13,772
-12,436
-33,927
-29,083
-31,790
-27,555 -27,198
-43,403
-40,815
-33,630
-30,686
-24,033
-19,480
-40,962
-34,647
-33,366
-29,266 -30,165
-36,575
-21,921
-9,423
-6,436 -6,302
-6,419
-50,000
-45,000
-40,000
-35,000
-30,000
-25,000
-20,000
-15,000
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
Millions(USD)
Actual
Scenario 1
Scenario 1a
Scenario 2
Scenario 2a
Reference
Passenger revenues compared to Baseline & 2019
International + Domestic International + Domestic
(-316 to -390 billion USD from Baseline) (-298 to -373 billion USD from 2019)

Passenger revenues compared to Baseline
409
-3,972
-16,050
-27,990
-28,131
-29,450 -29,187
-24,105
-17,408
-14,353
-11,612
-11,595
-25,587
-21,935
-23,189
-20,210
-21,005
-24,313
-21,946
-17,723 -16,057
-30,628
-29,524
-24,854
-23,450
-20,735
-22,319
-27,176
-17,618
-9,203
-6,687
-5,115
-5,940
-35,000
-30,000
-25,000
-20,000
-15,000
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
Millions(USD)
Actual
Scenario 1
Scenario 1a
Scenario 2
Scenario 2a
Reference
-459
-3,873
-10,805
-17,574
-16,975
-15,328
-12,516
-9,125
-5,953
-4,344
-3,054
-2,385
-9,831
-8,581
-9,595
-8,239
-7,736
-14,565
-12,782
-10,749
-9,734
-7,205
-4,967
-12,928
-11,226
-10,910
-9,425
-9,390
-11,190
-5,794
-1,653
-743
-2,081 -2,023
-18,000
-16,000
-14,000
-12,000
-10,000
-8,000
-6,000
-4,000
-2,000
0
Millions(USD)
Actual
Scenario 1
Scenario 1a
Scenario 2
Scenario 2a
Reference
(-213 to -257 billion USD from Baseline) (-102 to -133 billion USD from Baseline)

Passenger revenues compared to 2019
1,140
-2,705
-15,520
-27,301
-27,306
-28,601
-23,231
-16,757
-13,939
-11,158 -10,732
-28,358
-24,714
-21,284
-22,776
-19,756
-20,142
-29,799
-23,662
-21,533
-17,269
-15,194
-28,651
-24,203
-23,037
-20,281
-21,456
-26,346
-16,745
-8,552
-6,274
-4,661
-5,077
-35,000
-30,000
-25,000
-20,000
-15,000
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
Millions(USD)
Actual
Scenario 1
Scenario 1a
Scenario 2
Scenario 2a
Reference
236
-2,802
-10,150
-17,005
-16,288
-8,507
-5,171
-3,763
-2,614
-1,704
-11,554
-9,213
-7,799
-9,014
-7,799
-7,056
-12,164
-9,967 -9,153
-6,764
-4,286
-14,511
-13,604
-12,311
-10,444 -10,330
-8,985
-8,709
-10,228
-5,176
-871
-163
-1,641
-1,342
-18,000
-16,000
-14,000
-12,000
-10,000
-8,000
-6,000
-4,000
-2,000
0
2,000
Millions(USD)
Actual
Scenario 1
Scenario 1a
Scenario 2
Scenario 2a
Reference
(-204 to -248 billion USD from 2019) (-94 to -125 billion USD from 2019)

-19
-100
-719
-1,395
-1,303
-1,413 -1,420
-1,229
-871
-702
-616
-629
-1,303
-1,093
-1,105
-1,038
-1,098
-1,221
-1,079
-948
-886
-1,512 -1,510
-1,245
-1,146
-1,101
-1,211-1,221
-778
-332
-178 -193
-270
-1,600
-1,400
-1,200
-1,000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
Millions(USD)
Actual
Scenario 1
Scenario 1a
Scenario 2
Scenario 2a
Reference
-20 -23
-147
-312
-282
-267
-215
-167
-142
-127 -122
-224
-210
-232 -226
-231
-271
-243
-230
-199
-161
-286
-294
-274
-253
-249
-239
-249
-259
-131
-92
-97
-139
-162
-350
-300
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
Millions(USD)
Actual
Scenario 1
Scenario 1a
Scenario 2
Scenario 2a
Reference

-57
-3,189
-6,548
-8,737
-8,577 -8,600 -8,629
-6,898
-4,905
-4,388
-3,783
-3,717
-7,376
-6,345
-7,480
-7,142
-7,389-7,049
-6,950
-6,065
-5,304
-8,810
-8,584
-7,220
-7,480
-7,209
-7,704
-8,589
-5,177
-2,691
-2,434
-2,089
-2,398
-10,000
-9,000
-8,000
-7,000
-6,000
-5,000
-4,000
-3,000
-2,000
-1,000
0
Millions(USD)
Actual
Scenario 1
Scenario 1a
Scenario 2
Scenario 2a
Reference
-841
-4,331
-4,646
-5,543
-4,901
-4,012
-3,226
-2,334
-1,363
-863
-471
-219
-2,561
-2,200
-2,548
-2,155
-1,865
-3,559
-2,980 -2,765
-1,990
-1,241
-3,884
-3,559
-3,081 -3,135
-2,723
-2,622
-2,321
-617
-35
-431
-1,956 -1,935
-6,000
-5,000
-4,000
-3,000
-2,000
-1,000
0
Millions(USD)
Actual
Scenario 1
Scenario 1a
Scenario 2
Scenario 2a
Reference

170
-440
-4,919
-10,063 -10,486
-11,429
-9,140
-6,657
-5,189
-3,800 -3,665
-11,128
-9,705
-8,474
-8,631
-6,639
-6,668
-9,425
-8,013
-5,662
-4,932
-11,826
-11,248
-9,663
-8,613
-6,682 -6,916
-9,713
-6,272
-3,575
-2,489
-1,806
-2,175
-13,000
-11,000
-9,000
-7,000
-5,000
-3,000
-1,000
1,000
Millions(USD)
Actual
Scenario 1
Scenario 1a
Scenario 2
Scenario 2a
Reference
60
4
-929
-1,892
-1,983
-1,790
-1,132
-812
-559
-410
-311
-1,395
-1,213
-1,147 -1,176
-999
-886
-1,465
-1,293
-1,073
-751
-438
-1,652
-1,492
-1,368
-1,217
-1,010
-919
-1,134
-540
-271
-194 -239 -174
-2,500
-2,000
-1,500
-1,000
-500
0
500
Millions(USD)
Actual
Scenario 1
Scenario 1a
Scenario 2
Scenario 2a
Reference

47 10
-908
-1,997
-1,947
-1,960 -1,967
-1,632
-1,183
-999
-922
-987
-1,711
-1,420
-1,456
-1,451
-1,603
-1,554
-1,419
-1,331
-1,318
-2,072
-1,931
-1,581
-1,494
-1,517
-1,734
-1,925
-1,524
-745
-517
-408 -371
-2,500
-2,000
-1,500
-1,000
-500
0
500
Millions(USD)
Actual
Scenario 1
Scenario 1a
Scenario 2
Scenario 2a
Reference
31
-12
-653
-1,470
-1,512
-1,408
-1,252
-919
-669
-537
-425
-372
-949
-855
-1,043
-951
-943
-1,152
-1,001 -941
-753
-591
-1,386
-1,152
-1,013 -1,029
-943 -992
-1,239
-559
-2
61 54
37
-1,600
-1,400
-1,200
-1,000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
Millions(USD)
Actual
Scenario 1
Scenario 1a
Scenario 2
Scenario 2a
Reference
Scenarios 1 & 2 (Latin America/Caribbean):

67
-124
-1,343
-2,338
-2,195
-2,252
-1,957
-1,371
-1,151
-991
-1,019
-2,085
-1,716
-1,773
-1,626
-1,740
-1,899
-1,748
-1,508
-1,434
-2,222
-2,405 -2,397
-1,932
-1,848
-1,739
-1,945
-1,976
-1,169
-411
-274
-371
-475
-3,000
-2,500
-2,000
-1,500
-1,000
-500
0
500
Millions(USD)
Actual
Scenario 1
Scenario 1a
Scenario 2
Scenario 2a
Reference
-11
12
-151
-317
-307
-226
-171
-111
-72
-54
-46
-184
-159
-152
-133
-138
-266
-264
-241
-194
-153
-113
-83
-245
-204
-171
-147
-157
-204
-102
-71
-39
-78
-97
-350
-300
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
Millions(USD)
Actual
Scenario 1
Scenario 1a
Scenario 2
Scenario 2a
Reference

201
-129
-1,613
-3,460 -3,622
-3,826 -3,791
-3,249
-2,421
-1,924
-1,501
-1,578
-3,407
-2,886 -2,745
-2,313
-2,508
-4,004
-3,165
-2,737
-2,209 -2,183
-3,854
-3,213
-2,869
-2,487
-2,810
-3,752
-2,698
-1,448
-795
-249
-250
-4,500
-4,000
-3,500
-3,000
-2,500
-2,000
-1,500
-1,000
-500
0
500
Millions(USD)
Actual
Scenario 1
Scenario 1a
Scenario 2
Scenario 2a
Reference
322
477
-4,279
-8,040 -7,991
-7,565
-4,354
-2,831
-2,172
-1,567
-1,314
-6,150
-4,700
-4,009
-4,444
-3,776
-3,674
-7,085
-6,094
-5,036
-4,572
-3,398
-2,452
-6,207
-5,307
-5,110
-4,363
-4,451
-6,032
-3,845
-1,182
-43
277 309
-9,000
-8,000
-7,000
-6,000
-5,000
-4,000
-3,000
-2,000
-1,000
0
1,000
Millions(USD)
Actual
Scenario 1
Scenario 1a
Scenario 2
Scenario 2a
Reference

Appendix A: Overview of Early Impact
70

Source: CARNOC.com/VariFlight (retrieved on 9 March 2020)
COVID-19 outbreak has impacted air traffic
of China starting from late January 2020
Number of cancellation
Number of originally-planned flights
Number of actual operations
Note: The above includes a) international from mainland China, Hong Kong SAR of China, Macao SAR of China, Taiwan, Province of China;
b) domestic within mainland China, and c) regional between mainland China and Hong Kong SAR, Macao SAR and Taiwan Province
71

January 2020 February 2020
Country/Territory Country/Territory
Russian Federation -89,778 -1% China -10,532,219 -61%
Italy -65,971 -1% Hong Kong SAR of China (CN) -2,363,320 -36%
Turkey -53,262 -1% Republic of Korea -1,717,147 -19%
China -45,484 0% Japan -1,592,429 -15%
Morocco -42,684 -2% Thailand -1,452,478 -15%
United Arab Emirates -31,464 0% Taiwan, Province of China (CN) -1,446,686 -23%
Iraq -29,326 -3% Singapore -807,608 -12%
Albania -22,080 -7% Viet Nam -731,936 -16%
United Kingdom -21,888 0% Macao SAR of China (CN) -721,489 -64%
South Africa -21,476 -1% Philippines -646,104 -18%
Iran Islamic Republic of -20,891 -2% United States -620,296 -3%
France -19,537 0% Malaysia -448,172 -8%
Poland -18,154 0% Indonesia -426,102 -10%
Romania -17,493 -1% Russian Federation -317,890 -5%
Japan -16,449 0% Cambodia -307,968 -4%
United States -13,067 0% Turkey -277,868 -21%
Indonesia -12,114 0% Italy -268,846 -3%
Bulgaria -10,540 -1% United Arab Emirates -253,548 -2%
India -10,342 0% Australia -241,284 -5%
Cambodia -10,158 -1% United Kingdom -188,864 -1%
Bahamas -9,588 -2% Iran Islamic Republic of -169,782 -18%
Denmark -8,942 0% France -157,998 -1%
Viet Nam -8,489 0% Myanmar -147,487 -21%
Malta -7,372 -1% Germany -145,561 -1%
Lebanon -7,182 -1% India -116,823 -2%
Bahrain -7,123 -1% Morocco -108,186 -5%
Uzbekistan -6,539 -1% Qatar -99,338 -2%
Tunisia -6,362 -1% Canada -96,231 -1%
Switzerland -6,235 0% Lao People's Democratic Republi -71,910 -21%
Czechia -5,642 0% Finland -71,413 -4%
Capacity change from originally-
planned
Capacity change from originally-
planned
A surge of COVID-19 confirmed cases occurred
in several States by late February 2020
Source: OAG scheduled data adjusted by ICAO estimates
In February 2020, international
passenger capacity reduced by
10%, mainly related to traffic
from/to States experiencing an
early outbreak and States
deeply interconnected to
China.
State/Territory with 100 to 999
confirmed cases*
State/Territory with 1,000 to 9,999
confirmed cases*
confirmed cases*
State/Territory with 50,000 or more
confirmed cases*
*: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Situation
Report by WHO (29 February 2020)
72

COVID-19 Pandemic was declared and
accelerating in March 2020
In March 2020, global
international passenger
capacity reduced by 48%,
with significant reduction
not only in States
experiencing an early
outbreak but also
worldwide.
confirmed cases*
confirmed cases*
confirmed cases*
confirmed cases*
Report by WHO (31 March 2020)
73
China -14,841,792 -82% Philippines -1,669,456 -45%
Italy -6,860,837 -60% Indonesia -1,466,518 -34%
Republic of Korea -6,536,917 -70% Netherlands -1,292,472 -17%
Japan -5,837,894 -51% Canada -1,218,383 -16%
Germany -5,771,162 -31% Austria -1,200,864 -30%
Hong Kong SAR of China (CN) -5,352,855 -77% Russian Federation -1,177,704 -19%
United Kingdom -4,965,296 -22% Australia -1,119,345 -25%
United States -4,950,969 -19% Portugal -1,118,941 -26%
Thailand -4,587,421 -46% Belgium -1,060,572 -31%
Taiwan, Province of China (CN) -4,074,431 -62% Qatar -1,041,439 -21%
Spain -3,792,140 -26% Denmark -980,211 -28%
United Arab Emirates -3,400,833 -26% Israel -972,061 -44%
Singapore -3,297,434 -45% Poland -967,520 -24%
France -3,216,482 -25% Macao SAR of China (CN) -954,453 -80%
Turkey -2,879,271 -35% Egypt -818,043 -28%
Viet Nam -2,599,336 -55% Morocco -762,145 -31%
Malaysia -2,500,355 -42% Sweden -761,425 -24%
India -2,077,578 -29% Ireland -733,678 -21%
Saudi Arabia -1,747,385 -31% Greece -635,039 -34%
Switzerland -1,691,017 -28% Czechia -610,048 -37%
March 2020 International Passenger Capacity
Capacity change from
originally-planned
originally-planned

The world reached 3 million confirmed
COVID-19 cases in April 2020
In April 2020, global
international
passenger capacity so
far experienced by
unprecedented 94%
reduction (estimated)
74
United States -22,976,621 -88% Malaysia -4,959,606 -85%
United Kingdom -22,345,210 -90% Portugal -4,913,803 -95%
Germany -19,374,444 -92% Saudi Arabia -4,193,572 -77%
Spain -18,041,897 -94% Australia -4,115,805 -92%
China -16,683,876 -95% Mexico -4,104,882 -78%
France -13,480,021 -91% Austria -3,812,866 -91%
Italy -12,464,502 -94% Qatar -3,760,492 -80%
United Arab Emirates -11,009,896 -89% Indonesia -3,723,583 -87%
Japan -9,501,833 -88% Viet Nam -3,681,731 -89%
Turkey -8,798,224 -94% Ireland -3,595,318 -92%
Thailand -8,441,105 -94% Poland -3,449,632 -79%
Republic of Korea -7,960,525 -86% Denmark -3,417,729 -93%
Hong Kong SAR of China (CN) -7,122,206 -93% Belgium -3,323,135 -87%
Netherlands -6,960,693 -89% Greece -3,078,774 -94%
Singapore -6,596,279 -93% Philippines -2,993,741 -86%
Canada -6,288,656 -90% Sweden -2,941,579 -89%
India -6,286,458 -89% Norway -2,476,519 -90%
Switzerland -5,990,424 -93% Egypt -2,248,437 -78%
Russian Federation -5,747,918 -87% Brazil -2,214,850 -92%
Taiwan, Province of China (CN) -5,400,277 -85% Israel -2,196,238 -91%
originally-planned
originally-planned
April 2020 International Passenger Capacity
confirmed cases*
confirmed cases*
confirmed cases*
confirmed cases*
Report by WHO (30 April 2020)

Source: UNWTO COVID-19 Related Travel Restrictions – A Global Review for Tourism (4th report dated 29 May 2020)
Drastic reduction in passenger traffic amplified
by travel restrictions
Number of confirmed cases and destinations
with COVID-19-related travel restrictions
75
As of 18 May 2020, 100%
of all world destinations
have travel restrictions.
About 185 (85%)
destinations have
completely or partially
closed their borders,
while 11 destinations
(5%) have suspended
completely or partially
international flights.
https://www.unwto.org/news/covid-19-response-travel-restrictions

In contrast, surge in cargo flights
since March 2020
In contrast to the fall in passenger traffic, cargo flights surged with the
increased cargo-only operations using passenger aircraft
76

Appendix B: Scenario Assumptions in Detail
77

Assumptions underlying Scenarios
78
Seat capacity Passenger load factor
January 2020
February 2020
March 2020
April 2020
May 2020
June 2020
July 2020
August 2020
September 2020
October 2020
November 2020
December 2020
Seat capacity Passenger load factor
January 2020
February 2020
March 2020
April 2020
May 2020
June 2020
41 percentage points (international) and 23 percentage points (domestic) lower
than Baseline with adjustment of GDP impact by region/route group
July 2020
August 2020
September 2020
October 2020
November 2020
December 2020
(International and
domestic)
Scenarios 1/1a, 2/2a and Reference
Scenarios 1/1a & 2/2a: Application of monthly "base percentage" which
incorporates impacts of intra-/inter-regional share difference (2019)
Reference: Most recent airlines' schedules filed with OAG
Actual estimated results by region/route group
Application of "base percentage" which incorporates GDP impact by region/route
group
Actual capacity based on ICAO ADS-B data
Scenarios 1/1a & 2/2a: Application of monthly "base percentage" which
incorporates impacts of intra-/inter-regional share difference (2019), or most
recent airlines' schedules filed with OAG, whichever is smaller
Reference: Most recent airlines' schedules filed with OAG
Using 2019 winter schedule as the base, and applying the growth rate of
2019/2018
Forecasted 2020 load factor by region/route group, based on ICAO long-term
traffic forecasts (LTF), which was adjusted monthly by difference between 2019
actual monthly results (ICAO, IATA) and 2019 LTF forecasted load factor
(International and
domestic)
Baseline (Originally-planned, business as usual)
Airlines' winter schedules filed with OAG as of 6 January 2020
Maximum number of seats taken from airlines' summer schedules filed with OAG
during the period from 6 January 2020 to 20 April 2020

“Base percentages” used for scenarios
79
International (world average) Domestic (world average)
• Base percentages of seat capacity already take into consideration short-/long-haul (intra-/inter-region) impacts and will be
applied to Baseline level of seat capacity
• Base percentages of load factor already take into consideration economic (GDP) factors and will be added to 2019 load factor %
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
-73% -40% -20% -14% -11% -14%
-81% -63% -50% -42% -37% -33%
-81% -63% -60% -71% -69% -65%
-84% -79% -71% -65% -57% -46%
-84% -79% -74% -71% -70% -68%
-23% -17% -13% -10% -8% -7%
-28% -20% -16% -13% -11% -10%
-28% -30% -30% -27% -24% -20%
-38% -34% -31% -27% -22% -15%
-38% -34% -31% -29% -27% -25%
Seat capacity
Load factor
Reference
Scenario 1
Scenario 1a
Reference
Scenario 1
Scenario 1a
Scenario 2
Scenario 2a
Scenario 2
Scenario 2a
-39% -17% -3% -2% -13% -13%
-45% -32% -23% -15% -11% -8%
-45% -32% -29% -36% -34% -30%
-51% -43% -39% -32% -25% -15%
-51% -43% -39% -36% -35% -34%
-13% -9% -6% -4% -3% -2%
-16% -12% -9% -7% -6% -5%
-16% -16% -17% -13% -11% -10%
-23% -22% -20% -18% -15% -10%
-23% -23% -22% -21% -18% -16%
Seat capacity
Reference
Scenario 1
Scenario 1
Scenario 1a
Scenario 2
Scenario 2a
Scenario 1a
Scenario 2
Scenario 2a
Load factor
Reference

Data used for scenario analysis
80
• Seat capacity (seats available for sale): OAG airlines schedule data; Route Online; airline
websites and ICAO ADS-B operational data
• Load factor (RPKs/ASKs): ICAO long-term traffic forecasts (LTF); ICAO statistical reporting
forms; IATA economics data; and airline news release
• Historical passenger traffic (including ASKs, RPKs, passenger numbers and operating
revenues): ICO Annual Report of the Council; and ICAO statistical reporting forms
• Yield (passenger revenues/RPK): ICAO revenue-cost analysis of airlines (RCA); and ICAO-ICM
Marketing Information Data Transfer (MIDT passenger origin-destination)
• Macroeconomic factors (GDP impact): Income elasticity of demand estimated for ICAO LTF;
and IMF and World Bank economic outlook data
Note 1: A list of route group is shown in Appendix D.
Note 2: Average air fares (i.e. passenger yield multiplied by average trip distance) for each region/route group are used to
estimate gross passenger operating revenues.

Appendix C: Summary of Key Impact Indicators
Figures and estimates herein are subject to substantial changes, and will be updated with the situation
evolving and more information available.
81

Source: ICAO estimates 82
Baseline & Reference (World total)
Baseline Reference
Compared to 2019
(year-on-year)
Region Seat Capacity (%)
Passenger number
(million)
Passenger revenue
(USD, billion)
Africa 5.7% 6.88 1.08
Asia/Pacific 3.6% 69.91 8.29
Europe 1.2% 22.42 2.52
Latin America/Caribbean 2.9% 12.39 1.03
Middle East 2.1% 4.73 0.92
North America 3.0% 34.75 3.70
Total 2.8% 151.07 17.53
Baseline (Originally-planned or business as usual)
Compared to 2019
(year-on-year)
Month Seat Capacity (%)
Passenger number
(million)
Passenger revenue
(USD, billion)
January 2020 3.0% 12.27 1.43
February 2020 5.4% 19.67 2.34
March 2020 2.8% 12.30 1.19
April 2020 2.4% 10.93 1.26
May 2020 2.7% 12.04 1.51
June 2020 3.1% 14.54 1.67
July 2020 3.1% 15.55 1.79
August 2020 2.4% 12.30 1.49
September 2020 2.9% 13.02 1.43
October 2020 1.7% 8.53 0.99
November 2020 1.6% 7.48 0.89
December 2020 2.8% 12.45 1.54
Total 2.8% 151.07 17.53
Passenger number
(million)
Passenger revenue
(USD, billion)
Seat Capacity (%)
Passenger number
(million)
Passenger revenue
(USD, billion)
Africa -42.1% -62.39 -9.87 -38.9% -55.51 -8.79
Asia/Pacific -35.2% -748.15 -90.65 -32.9% -678.25 -82.36
Europe -39.7% -571.70 -72.28 -38.9% -549.28 -69.76
Latin America/Caribbean -35.0% -140.60 -18.92 -33.1% -128.22 -17.89
Middle East -38.6% -91.33 -14.46 -37.3% -86.61 -13.55
North America -27.2% -406.00 -59.24 -25.0% -371.24 -55.53
Total -34.9% -2,020.17 -265.42 -33.1% -1,869.10 -247.89
Reference
(compared to Baseline)
Reference
(compared to 2019)
Passenger number
(million)
Passenger revenue
(USD, billion)
Seat Capacity (%)
Passenger number
(million)
Passenger revenue
(USD, billion)
January 2020 -1.4% -5.27 -0.05 1.5% 7.00 1.38
February 2020 -13.7% -67.14 -7.85 -9.0% -47.47 -5.51
March 2020 -37.5% -210.80 -26.86 -35.8% -198.50 -25.67
April 2020 -82.0% -354.29 -45.56 -81.6% -343.36 -44.31
May 2020 -80.7% -349.66 -45.11 -80.2% -337.62 -43.59
June 2020 -73.3% -338.61 -44.78 -72.5% -324.08 -43.11
July 2020 -53.9% -276.54 -38.37 -52.5% -260.99 -36.57
August 2020 -27.1% -162.69 -23.41 -25.4% -150.39 -21.92
September 2020 -10.5% -74.91 -10.86 -7.9% -61.89 -9.42
October 2020 -7.3% -52.65 -7.43 -5.7% -44.12 -6.44
November 2020 -12.1% -62.10 -7.20 -10.7% -54.63 -6.30
December 2020 -13.4% -65.51 -7.96 -11.0% -53.06 -6.42
Total -34.9% -2,020.17 -265.42 -33.1% -1,869.10 -247.89
Reference
Reference
(compared to 2019)

Estimated results:
Scenario 1 (World total)
Compared to Baseline
(business as usual)
Compared to 2019
(year-on-year)
Passenger number
(million)
Passenger revenue
(USD, billion)
Seat Capacity (%)
Passenger number
(million)
Passenger revenue
(USD, billion)
Passenger number
(million)
Passenger revenue
(USD, billion)
Seat Capacity (%)
Passenger number
(million)
Passenger revenue
(USD, billion)
Africa -53.5% -75.65 -12.53 -61.2% -86.37 -14.47 Africa -50.8% -68.77 -11.45 -59.0% -79.48 -13.39
Asia/Pacific -37.6% -806.56 -100.78 -43.9% -943.09 -118.90 Asia/Pacific -35.4% -736.65 -92.49 -41.8% -873.19 -110.61
Europe -50.3% -697.15 -87.90 -58.7% -809.71 -101.76 Europe -49.7% -674.73 -85.38 -58.2% -787.29 -99.24
Latin America/Caribbean -45.9% -182.39 -23.64 -53.7% -214.69 -27.38 Latin America/Caribbean -44.3% -170.01 -22.62 -52.3% -202.30 -26.35
Middle East -51.3% -114.48 -18.62 -58.2% -130.69 -21.38 Middle East -50.2% -109.76 -17.70 -57.3% -125.97 -20.46
North America -34.8% -492.97 -72.38 -41.2% -576.45 -83.93 North America -32.9% -458.22 -68.67 -39.4% -541.69 -80.23
Total -41.9% -2,369.20 -315.83 -48.9% -2,760.99 -367.81 Total -40.3% -2,218.13 -298.30 -47.5% -2,609.92 -350.28
Scenario 1
Path 1
Scenario 1
Path 1a
Scenario 1
Path 1
Scenario 1
Path 1a
(business as usual)
Compared to 2019
(year-on-year)
Passenger number
(million)
Passenger revenue
(USD, billion)
Seat Capacity (%)
Passenger number
(million)
Passenger revenue
(USD, billion)
Passenger number
(million)
Passenger revenue
(USD, billion)
Seat Capacity (%)
Passenger number
(million)
Passenger revenue
(USD, billion)
January 2020 -1.4% -5.27 -0.05 -1.4% -5.27 -0.05 January 2020 1.5% 7.00 1.38 1.5% 7.00 1.38
February 2020 -13.7% -67.14 -7.85 -13.7% -67.14 -7.85 February 2020 -9.0% -47.47 -5.51 -9.0% -47.47 -5.51
March 2020 -37.5% -210.80 -26.86 -37.5% -210.80 -26.86 March 2020 -35.8% -198.50 -25.67 -35.8% -198.50 -25.67
April 2020 -82.0% -354.29 -45.56 -82.0% -354.29 -45.56 April 2020 -81.6% -343.36 -44.31 -81.6% -343.36 -44.31
May 2020 -80.7% -349.66 -45.11 -80.7% -349.66 -45.11 May 2020 -80.2% -337.62 -43.59 -80.2% -337.62 -43.59
June 2020 -73.3% -338.61 -44.78 -73.3% -338.61 -44.78 June 2020 -72.5% -324.08 -43.11 -72.5% -324.08 -43.11
July 2020 -60.2% -306.53 -41.70 -60.2% -306.53 -41.70 July 2020 -59.0% -290.98 -39.91 -59.0% -290.98 -39.91
August 2020 -45.9% -241.73 -33.23 -45.9% -257.47 -35.42 August 2020 -44.6% -229.43 -31.74 -44.6% -245.17 -33.93
September 2020 -34.6% -169.87 -23.36 -42.2% -224.05 -30.52 September 2020 -32.7% -156.84 -21.93 -40.5% -211.03 -29.08
October 2020 -26.3% -132.48 -18.70 -50.8% -240.01 -32.78 October 2020 -25.1% -123.95 -17.70 -50.0% -231.49 -31.79
November 2020 -21.2% -100.75 -14.67 -48.1% -205.10 -28.45 November 2020 -19.9% -93.27 -13.77 -47.2% -197.62 -27.55
December 2020 -17.8% -92.07 -13.98 -44.4% -202.04 -28.74 December 2020 -15.5% -79.62 -12.44 -42.8% -189.60 -27.20
Total -41.9% -2,369.20 -315.83 -48.9% -2,760.99 -367.81 Total -40.3% -2,218.13 -298.30 -47.5% -2,609.92 -350.28
Scenario 1
Path 1
Scenario 1
Path 1a
Scenario 1
Path 1
Scenario 1
Path 1a

Estimated results:
Scenario 2 (World total)
(business as usual)
Compared to 2019
(year-on-year)
Passenger number
(million)
Passenger revenue
(USD, billion)
Seat Capacity (%)
Passenger number
(million)
Passenger revenue
(USD, billion)
Passenger number
(million)
Passenger revenue
(USD, billion)
Seat Capacity (%)
Passenger number
(million)
Passenger revenue
(USD, billion)
Africa -61.5% -86.85 -14.57 -64.9% -91.00 -15.30 Africa -59.4% -79.97 -13.49 -62.9% -84.12 -14.22
Asia/Pacific -43.7% -959.96 -119.16 -46.5% -1,013.90 -125.99 Asia/Pacific -41.7% -890.05 -110.87 -44.6% -943.99 -117.70
Europe -58.2% -807.27 -101.48 -61.6% -847.26 -106.30 Europe -57.7% -784.86 -98.96 -61.2% -824.85 -103.79
Total -48.9% -2,793.58 -370.39 -51.9% -2,947.25 -390.15 Total -47.5% -2,642.51 -352.86 -50.6% -2,796.18 -372.62
Scenario 2
Path 2
Scenario 2
Path 2a
Scenario 2
Path 2
Scenario 2
Path 2a
(business as usual)
Compared to 2019
(year-on-year)
Passenger number
(million)
Passenger revenue
(USD, billion)
Seat Capacity (%)
Passenger number
(million)
Passenger revenue
(USD, billion)
Passenger number
(million)
Passenger revenue
(USD, billion)
Seat Capacity (%)
Passenger number
(million)
Passenger revenue
(USD, billion)
January 2020 -1.4% -5.27 -0.05 -1.4% -5.27 -0.05 January 2020 1.5% 7.00 1.38 1.5% 7.00 1.38
March 2020 -37.5% -210.80 -26.86 -37.5% -210.80 -26.86 March 2020 -35.8% -198.50 -25.67 -35.8% -198.50 -25.67
April 2020 -82.0% -354.29 -45.56 -82.0% -354.29 -45.56 April 2020 -81.6% -343.36 -44.31 -81.6% -343.36 -44.31
May 2020 -80.7% -349.66 -45.11 -80.7% -349.66 -45.11 May 2020 -80.2% -337.62 -43.59 -80.2% -337.62 -43.59
June 2020 -73.3% -338.61 -44.78 -73.3% -338.61 -44.78 June 2020 -72.5% -324.08 -43.11 -72.5% -324.08 -43.11
July 2020 -65.3% -337.11 -45.19 -65.3% -337.11 -45.19 July 2020 -64.3% -321.56 -43.40 -64.3% -321.56 -43.40
August 2020 -58.8% -311.50 -42.31 -58.8% -312.88 -42.45 August 2020 -57.9% -299.20 -40.82 -57.9% -300.59 -40.96
October 2020 -45.8% -233.97 -31.68 -51.0% -255.23 -34.36 October 2020 -44.9% -225.45 -30.69 -50.1% -246.71 -33.37
Total -48.9% -2,793.58 -370.39 -51.9% -2,947.25 -390.15 Total -47.5% -2,642.51 -352.86 -50.6% -2,796.18 -372.62
Scenario 2
Path 2
Scenario 2
Path 2a
Scenario 2
Path 2
Scenario 2
Path 2a

Baseline & Reference (International)
Baseline Reference
Compared to 2019
(year-on-year)
Passenger number
(million)
Passenger revenue
(USD, billion)
Africa 6.8% 5.33 0.94
Asia/Pacific 4.6% 25.37 5.16
Europe 2.0% 24.08 2.65
Latin America/Caribbean -0.7% -0.38 -0.01
Middle East 3.9% 6.32 1.07
North America -2.9% -4.32 -0.83
Total 2.5% 56.39 8.98
Compared to 2019
(year-on-year)
Passenger number
(million)
Passenger revenue
(USD, billion)
January 2020 2.3% 3.97 0.73
February 2020 5.2% 7.43 1.27
March 2020 2.6% 4.54 0.53
April 2020 2.4% 4.62 0.69
May 2020 2.4% 4.45 0.82
June 2020 3.0% 5.99 0.85
July 2020 2.4% 5.50 0.83
August 2020 2.3% 5.35 0.87
September 2020 2.2% 4.45 0.65
October 2020 1.1% 2.43 0.41
November 2020 1.3% 2.45 0.45
December 2020 3.0% 5.19 0.86
Total 2.5% 56.39 8.98
Passenger number
(million)
Passenger revenue
(USD, billion)
Seat Capacity (%)
Passenger number
(million)
Passenger revenue
(USD, billion)
Africa -41.5% -40.56 -7.92 -37.5% -35.23 -6.98
Asia/Pacific -46.9% -288.93 -59.09 -44.5% -263.55 -53.93
Europe -43.7% -459.57 -63.20 -42.6% -435.49 -60.55
Middle East -38.5% -73.80 -12.83 -36.2% -67.48 -11.77
North America -42.3% -82.20 -21.64 -44.0% -86.52 -22.48
Total -43.8% -1,005.50 -176.92 -42.4% -949.11 -167.95
Reference
Reference
(compared to 2019)
Passenger number
(million)
Passenger revenue
(USD, billion)
Seat Capacity (%)
Passenger number
(million)
Passenger revenue
(USD, billion)
January 2020 -0.4% 1.18 0.41 1.9% 5.15 1.14
February 2020 -9.6% -20.50 -3.97 -4.9% -13.07 -2.70
March 2020 -47.6% -90.39 -16.05 -46.2% -85.85 -15.52
April 2020 -93.6% -158.23 -27.99 -93.4% -153.61 -27.30
May 2020 -93.1% -160.04 -28.13 -93.0% -155.59 -27.31
June 2020 -90.2% -169.70 -29.45 -89.9% -163.71 -28.60
July 2020 -73.0% -154.28 -27.18 -72.4% -148.78 -26.35
August 2020 -40.3% -100.61 -17.62 -38.9% -95.26 -16.74
September 2020 -20.0% -54.12 -9.20 -18.3% -49.67 -8.55
October 2020 -14.1% -38.85 -6.69 -13.2% -36.42 -6.27
November 2020 -11.5% -27.76 -5.11 -10.3% -25.30 -4.66
December 2020 -14.0% -32.19 -5.94 -11.4% -27.00 -5.08
Total -43.8% -1,005.50 -176.92 -42.4% -949.11 -167.95
Reference
Reference
(compared to 2019)

Estimated results:
Scenario 1 (International)
(business as usual)
Compared to 2019
(year-on-year)
Passenger number
(million)
Passenger revenue
(USD, billion)
Seat Capacity (%)
Passenger number
(million)
Passenger revenue
(USD, billion)
Passenger number
(million)
Passenger revenue
(USD, billion)
Seat Capacity (%)
Passenger number
(million)
Passenger revenue
(USD, billion)
Africa -57.0% -52.03 -10.42 -64.4% -58.81 -12.01 Africa -54.1% -46.71 -9.48 -62.0% -53.49 -11.07
Europe -55.5% -559.51 -76.75 -64.0% -644.94 -88.41 Europe -54.6% -535.44 -74.10 -63.3% -620.87 -85.76
Total -55.0% -1,211.82 -213.44 -63.3% -1,393.68 -246.30 Total -53.9% -1,155.43 -204.47 -62.4% -1,337.29 -237.32
Scenario 1
Path 1a
Scenario 1
Path 1
Scenario 1
Path 1a
Scenario 1
Path 1
(business as usual)
Compared to 2019
(year-on-year)
Passenger number
(million)
Passenger revenue
(USD, billion)
Seat Capacity (%)
Passenger number
(million)
Passenger revenue
(USD, billion)
Passenger number
(million)
Passenger revenue
(USD, billion)
Seat Capacity (%)
Passenger number
(million)
Passenger revenue
(USD, billion)
January 2020 -0.4% 1.18 0.41 -0.4% 1.18 0.41 January 2020 1.9% 5.15 1.14 1.9% 5.15 1.14
March 2020 -47.6% -90.39 -16.05 -47.6% -90.39 -16.05 March 2020 -46.2% -85.85 -15.52 -46.2% -85.85 -15.52
April 2020 -93.6% -158.23 -27.99 -93.6% -158.23 -27.99 April 2020 -93.4% -153.61 -27.30 -93.4% -153.61 -27.30
May 2020 -93.1% -160.04 -28.13 -93.1% -160.04 -28.13 May 2020 -93.0% -155.59 -27.31 -93.0% -155.59 -27.31
June 2020 -90.2% -169.70 -29.45 -90.2% -169.70 -29.45 June 2020 -89.9% -163.71 -28.60 -89.9% -163.71 -28.60
July 2020 -80.6% -167.46 -29.19 -80.6% -167.46 -29.19 July 2020 -80.2% -161.95 -28.36 -80.2% -161.95 -28.36
August 2020 -63.0% -138.57 -24.10 -63.0% -146.80 -25.59 August 2020 -62.1% -133.22 -23.23 -62.1% -141.45 -24.71
October 2020 -41.6% -81.82 -14.35 -71.4% -131.57 -23.19 October 2020 -41.0% -79.39 -13.94 -71.1% -129.14 -22.78
Total -55.0% -1,211.82 -213.44 -63.3% -1,393.68 -246.30 Total -53.9% -1,155.43 -204.47 -62.4% -1,337.29 -237.32
Scenario 1
Path 1a
Scenario 1
Path 1
Scenario 1
Path 1a
Scenario 1
Path 1

Estimated results:
Scenario 2 (International)
(business as usual)
Compared to 2019
(year-on-year)
Passenger number
(million)
Passenger revenue
(USD, billion)
Seat Capacity (%)
Passenger number
(million)
Passenger revenue
(USD, billion)
Passenger number
(million)
Passenger revenue
(USD, billion)
Seat Capacity (%)
Passenger number
(million)
Passenger revenue
(USD, billion)
Africa -65.2% -59.20 -12.10 -68.4% -61.57 -12.67 Africa -62.9% -53.87 -11.16 -66.3% -56.24 -11.73
Europe -64.1% -644.28 -88.27 -67.6% -672.11 -92.12 Europe -63.4% -620.20 -85.62 -66.9% -648.03 -89.46
Total -63.2% -1,389.04 -245.38 -66.8% -1,450.80 -256.69 Total -62.3% -1,332.65 -236.40 -65.9% -1,394.42 -247.72
Scenario 2
Path 2
Scenario 2
Path 2a
Scenario 2
Path 2
Scenario 2
Path 2a
(business as usual)
Compared to 2019
(year-on-year)
Passenger number
(million)
Passenger revenue
(USD, billion)
Seat Capacity (%)
Passenger number
(million)
Passenger revenue
(USD, billion)
Passenger number
(million)
Passenger revenue
(USD, billion)
Seat Capacity (%)
Passenger number
(million)
Passenger revenue
(USD, billion)
January 2020 -0.4% 1.18 0.41 -0.4% 1.18 0.41 January 2020 1.9% 5.15 1.14 1.9% 5.15 1.14
March 2020 -47.6% -90.39 -16.05 -47.6% -90.39 -16.05 March 2020 -46.2% -85.85 -15.52 -46.2% -85.85 -15.52
April 2020 -93.6% -158.23 -27.99 -93.6% -158.23 -27.99 April 2020 -93.4% -153.61 -27.30 -93.4% -153.61 -27.30
May 2020 -93.1% -160.04 -28.13 -93.1% -160.04 -28.13 May 2020 -93.0% -155.59 -27.31 -93.0% -155.59 -27.31
June 2020 -90.2% -169.70 -29.45 -90.2% -169.70 -29.45 June 2020 -89.9% -163.71 -28.60 -89.9% -163.71 -28.60
July 2020 -84.5% -175.83 -30.63 -84.5% -175.83 -30.63 July 2020 -84.1% -170.32 -29.80 -84.1% -170.32 -29.80
August 2020 -78.6% -168.86 -29.52 -78.6% -168.86 -29.52 August 2020 -78.1% -163.51 -28.65 -78.1% -163.51 -28.65
October 2020 -64.7% -124.22 -21.95 -71.3% -132.69 -23.45 October 2020 -64.4% -121.78 -21.53 -71.0% -130.26 -23.04
Total -63.2% -1,389.04 -245.38 -66.8% -1,450.80 -256.69 Total -62.3% -1,332.65 -236.40 -65.9% -1,394.42 -247.72
Scenario 2
Path 2
Scenario 2
Path 2a
Scenario 2
Path 2
Scenario 2
Path 2a

Baseline & Reference (Domestic)
Baseline Reference
Compared to 2019
(year-on-year)
Passenger number
(million)
Passenger revenue
(USD, billion)
Africa 3.7% 1.56 0.14
Asia/Pacific 3.2% 44.54 3.13
Europe -1.1% -1.66 -0.13
Latin America/Caribbean 4.9% 12.76 1.04
Middle East -4.2% -1.59 -0.15
North America 4.1% 39.08 4.54
Total 3.0% 94.68 8.56
Compared to 2019
(year-on-year)
Passenger number
(million)
Passenger revenue
(USD, billion)
January 2020 3.4% 8.29 0.70
February 2020 5.6% 12.24 1.07
March 2020 3.0% 7.77 0.66
April 2020 2.4% 6.31 0.57
May 2020 2.8% 7.59 0.69
June 2020 3.2% 8.55 0.82
July 2020 3.5% 10.05 0.96
August 2020 2.4% 6.95 0.62
September 2020 3.4% 8.57 0.78
October 2020 2.1% 6.09 0.58
November 2020 1.8% 5.02 0.44
December 2020 2.7% 7.25 0.68
Total 3.0% 94.68 8.56
Passenger number
(million)
Passenger revenue
(USD, billion)
Seat Capacity (%)
Passenger number
(million)
Passenger revenue
(USD, billion)
Africa -43.4% -21.84 -1.95 -41.3% -20.28 -1.81
Asia/Pacific -30.0% -459.23 -31.57 -27.8% -414.69 -28.44
Europe -28.1% -112.13 -9.08 -28.9% -113.79 -9.22
Middle East -38.8% -17.53 -1.63 -41.4% -19.12 -1.78
North America -24.3% -323.80 -37.59 -21.2% -284.72 -33.06
Total -28.5% -1,014.67 -88.50 -26.4% -919.99 -79.94
Reference
Reference
(compared to 2019)
Passenger number
(million)
Passenger revenue
(USD, billion)
Seat Capacity (%)
Passenger number
(million)
Passenger revenue
(USD, billion)
January 2020 -2.0% -6.45 -0.46 1.3% 1.85 0.24
February 2020 -16.4% -46.64 -3.87 -11.8% -34.40 -2.80
March 2020 -30.7% -120.42 -10.81 -28.6% -112.65 -10.15
April 2020 -73.6% -196.06 -17.57 -73.0% -189.75 -17.00
May 2020 -71.6% -189.62 -16.98 -70.7% -182.02 -16.29
June 2020 -60.4% -168.91 -15.33 -59.1% -160.36 -14.51
July 2020 -39.1% -122.26 -11.19 -37.0% -112.21 -10.23
August 2020 -16.8% -62.08 -5.79 -14.7% -55.13 -5.18
September 2020 -3.3% -20.79 -1.65 -0.1% -12.22 -0.87
October 2020 -2.4% -13.80 -0.74 -0.4% -7.70 -0.16
November 2020 -12.6% -34.35 -2.08 -11.0% -29.32 -1.64
December 2020 -13.1% -33.31 -2.02 -10.8% -26.06 -1.34
Total -28.5% -1,014.67 -88.50 -26.4% -919.99 -79.94
Reference
Reference
(compared to 2019)

Estimated results:
Scenario 1 (Domestic)
(business as usual)
Compared to 2019
(year-on-year)
Passenger number
(million)
Passenger revenue
(USD, billion)
Seat Capacity (%)
Passenger number
(million)
Passenger revenue
(USD, billion)
Passenger number
(million)
Passenger revenue
(USD, billion)
Seat Capacity (%)
Passenger number
(million)
Passenger revenue
(USD, billion)
Africa -46.9% -23.62 -2.11 -55.4% -27.55 -2.46 Africa -44.9% -22.06 -1.97 -53.8% -26.00 -2.32
Europe -35.7% -137.64 -11.15 -43.4% -164.76 -13.35 Europe -36.4% -139.30 -11.28 -44.1% -166.42 -13.48
Total -32.5% -1,157.38 -102.39 -38.6% -1,367.32 -121.51 Total -30.5% -1,062.70 -93.83 -36.7% -1,272.63 -112.96
Scenario 1
Path 1
Scenario 1
Path 1a
Scenario 1
Path 1
Scenario 1
Path 1a
(business as usual)
Compared to 2019
(year-on-year)
Passenger number
(million)
Passenger revenue
(USD, billion)
Seat Capacity (%)
Passenger number
(million)
Passenger revenue
(USD, billion)
Passenger number
(million)
Passenger revenue
(USD, billion)
Seat Capacity (%)
Passenger number
(million)
Passenger revenue
(USD, billion)
January 2020 -2.0% -6.45 -0.46 -2.0% -6.45 -0.46 January 2020 1.3% 1.85 0.24 1.3% 1.85 0.24
March 2020 -30.7% -120.42 -10.81 -30.7% -120.42 -10.81 March 2020 -28.6% -112.65 -10.15 -28.6% -112.65 -10.15
April 2020 -73.6% -196.06 -17.57 -73.6% -196.06 -17.57 April 2020 -73.0% -189.75 -17.00 -73.0% -189.75 -17.00
May 2020 -71.6% -189.62 -16.98 -71.6% -189.62 -16.98 May 2020 -70.7% -182.02 -16.29 -70.7% -182.02 -16.29
June 2020 -60.4% -168.91 -15.33 -60.4% -168.91 -15.33 June 2020 -59.1% -160.36 -14.51 -59.1% -160.36 -14.51
July 2020 -44.6% -139.08 -12.52 -44.6% -139.08 -12.52 July 2020 -42.6% -129.03 -11.55 -42.6% -129.03 -11.55
August 2020 -32.5% -103.16 -9.12 -32.5% -110.67 -9.83 August 2020 -30.8% -96.21 -8.51 -30.8% -103.73 -9.21
October 2020 -15.4% -50.66 -4.34 -36.1% -108.44 -9.59 October 2020 -13.7% -44.57 -3.76 -34.7% -102.35 -9.01
Total -32.5% -1,157.38 -102.39 -38.6% -1,367.32 -121.51 Total -30.5% -1,062.70 -93.83 -36.7% -1,272.63 -112.96
Scenario 1
Path 1
Scenario 1
Path 1a
Scenario 1
Path 1
Scenario 1
Path 1a

Estimated results:
Scenario 2 (Domestic)
(business as usual)
Compared to 2019
(year-on-year)
Passenger number
(million)
Passenger revenue
(USD, billion)
Seat Capacity (%)
Passenger number
(million)
Passenger revenue
(USD, billion)
Passenger number
(million)
Passenger revenue
(USD, billion)
Seat Capacity (%)
Passenger number
(million)
Passenger revenue
(USD, billion)
Africa -54.8% -27.65 -2.47 -58.5% -29.43 -2.63 Africa -53.1% -26.10 -2.33 -57.0% -27.87 -2.49
Europe -41.4% -163.00 -13.20 -44.6% -175.16 -14.19 Europe -42.1% -164.66 -13.34 -45.3% -176.82 -14.32
Total -38.5% -1,404.54 -125.02 -41.3% -1,496.44 -133.46 Total -36.7% -1,309.86 -116.46 -39.5% -1,401.76 -124.90
Scenario 2
Path 2
Scenario 2
Path 2a
Scenario 2
Path 2
Scenario 2
Path 2a
(business as usual)
Compared to 2019
(year-on-year)
Passenger number
(million)
Passenger revenue
(USD, billion)
Seat Capacity (%)
Passenger number
(million)
Passenger revenue
(USD, billion)
Passenger number
(million)
Passenger revenue
(USD, billion)
Seat Capacity (%)
Passenger number
(million)
Passenger revenue
(USD, billion)
January 2020 -2.0% -6.45 -0.46 -2.0% -6.45 -0.46 January 2020 1.3% 1.85 0.24 1.3% 1.85 0.24
March 2020 -30.7% -120.42 -10.81 -30.7% -120.42 -10.81 March 2020 -28.6% -112.65 -10.15 -28.6% -112.65 -10.15
April 2020 -73.6% -196.06 -17.57 -73.6% -196.06 -17.57 April 2020 -73.0% -189.75 -17.00 -73.0% -189.75 -17.00
May 2020 -71.6% -189.62 -16.98 -71.6% -189.62 -16.98 May 2020 -70.7% -182.02 -16.29 -70.7% -182.02 -16.29
June 2020 -60.4% -168.91 -15.33 -60.4% -168.91 -15.33 June 2020 -59.1% -160.36 -14.51 -59.1% -160.36 -14.51
July 2020 -50.6% -161.29 -14.57 -50.6% -161.29 -14.57 July 2020 -48.9% -151.24 -13.60 -48.9% -151.24 -13.60
August 2020 -43.3% -142.64 -12.78 -43.3% -144.02 -12.93 August 2020 -41.9% -135.69 -12.16 -41.9% -137.07 -12.31
October 2020 -32.2% -109.76 -9.73 -36.4% -122.54 -10.91 October 2020 -30.8% -103.66 -9.15 -35.1% -116.45 -10.33
Total -38.5% -1,404.54 -125.02 -41.3% -1,496.44 -133.46 Total -36.7% -1,309.86 -116.46 -39.5% -1,401.76 -124.90
Scenario 2
Path 2
Scenario 2
Path 2a
Scenario 2
Path 2
Scenario 2
Path 2a

Appendix D: Estimated Results at Route Group Level
More detailed break-down of the information is available in the COVID-19 Air Traffic Dashboard
(https://www.icao.int/sustainability/Pages/COVID-19-Air-Traffic-Dashboard.aspx).
In case of any discrepancy and inconsistency of information contained in this Appendix and the
Dashboard, the Appendix information shall prevail as the Dashboard uses non-cleaned operational data.
91

ICAO - Effects of Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) on Civil Aviation

ICAO - Effects of Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) on Civil Aviation

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