Global warming has put us on a path to a 4 Deg C warmer world by 2100. We have to act together and now to avoid it happening.

1. Let Us Avoid a 4°C Warmer World
Assignment for World Bank/Coursera 2015 Course
Turn Down the Heat
By Hillary N. Fernando
Colombo – Sri Lanka

2. Context of Global Warming
The earth is warming due to greenhouse gases - GHG (ie: Carbon Dioxide,
Methane, Nitrous Oxide, Fluorocarbons etc.) released by our actions and
unsustainable industrial development.
We are on course to 4°C warmer world by 2100.
What it causes and what are its impacts?
• Extremes of temperature, heat waves, drought, typhoons, floods, sea level
rise, ocean acidification, and changes in our climate cycle.
• Impact on agriculture, food production, water availability, natural
ecosystems and bio diversity that support life, affecting all communities.
A timely and appropriate response to this massive climate change challenge
is urgently needed from everyone now to avoid a 4oC warmer world in future.

3. Historical Observations of Global warming
What Have Been Observed related to Climate Changes and Causes
• The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), approved by
almost 200 countries including Sri Lanka, states with 95%-100% certainty,
that human influence has been the dominant cause of observed warming
since the mid-20th century.
• Consequences of GHG emissions are felt decades or even centuries after
they occur. Some of the visible consequences of climate change today are
the results of the emissions since the preindustrial period.
• Sri Lanka has observed effects of climate change as extreme temperatures
storms and floods, droughts, loss of rain forests, erosion of coastal areas,
loss of mangroves, effects of EL-Niño and change of monsoon cycles.

4. Carbon Dioxide has been the main cause for global warming
Atmospheric CO2 concentrations at Mauna Loa, Hawaii Greenhouse gas emitted by sector (Wikipedia)

5. Trends of possible 21st century global climate
The global community is committed to limit warming to below 2°C to prevent “dangerous” climate
change. Small island states like Sri Lanka and developed countries are pushing to limit warming to
1.5°C, above which their own development or very survival would be under threat.
• The present emission trends direct to a 4°C warming path within this century.
• Projections show intense and frequent temperature extremes with dry areas becoming drier and
wet areas wetter, extinction of the coral reef ecosystems due to a 150% increase in ocean acidity
and flooding due to sea-level rise of 0.5 to 1 meter .
Scientists state that 21st century climates would result from different emission scenarios:
• A mitigation pathway or business as usual emissions scenario.
• The global warming effects of future depend on the emission scenario we select now.
We still have the choice to move towards 2OC warmer world, and avoid a 4OC warmer world, but the
window for making that choice is rapidly narrowing.

6. What will be the life in a 4°C Warmer World?
• It is increasingly clear that climatic changes are already affecting the daily
lives of millions of people globally and in South Asia including Sri Lanka
• Even a 2°C warming will affect human health, food production, water
resources, agriculture and coastal infrastructure
• The biodiversity and ecosystems are likely to be impacted with disastrous
consequences for human development.
• The adverse effects of climate change would disproportionately impact the
world’s poorest countries undermining their development efforts
• The impacts of going beyond 2°C warming, will continue to increase in a
non- linear fashion and the effects can compound, cascading substantially.
• Life on Earth in a 4°C warmer world would be very different.

7. It will affect everyone,
especially the most vulnerable of our society
Fig 3: Emergency appeal launched the drought affected in Sri Lanka (courtesy: Red Cross Sri Lanka)

8. Threats, Challenges and Opportunities
• Global warming threatens to reverse development gains and
undermine poverty reduction efforts.
• The expected impacts of climate change in future will depend upon
the mitigation choices we make today.
• Delayed action on changing our behaviour can have detrimental
effects on climate in the future.
• The good news is that if we act now, act together and act differently, a
climate-smart world is within our reach.
• We have a choice and opportunity at global, national and local scale,
and individually to help transition to a low-emission climate-resilient
development path.

9. What can we do individually
• Turn off unnecessary lights, it reduces the release of CO2 in power stations
• Let us put a stop to plastic bags by bringing a carry bag for groceries and shopping
• Buy local food as they use minimum energy to store and transport to the local
market
• Grow your own food in your garden
• Make organic fertilizer, use composting of organic waste
• Plant a tree and we can plant 7 million trees globally if only we resolve to do
• Use water resources efficiently, it starts off at our household
• Help conserve materials, remember the 3R Principle: Reduce, Reuse, Recycle
• Walk or bike, it helps the environment, save money and keep us healthy
• Use a hybrid or energy efficient car
• Reduce carbon footprint associated with different dietary choices.
• Purchase good quality and lasting products with reusable or recyclable packaging.
• Use your consumer power to stimulate the cycle of climate smart manufacture and
reduce-reuse-recycle process that can help reduce global warming

10. What can policy makers and governments do
to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions
• Join with multilateral organizations to work together to reduce emissions globally
• Implement regulatory frameworks for reduction of GHG emissions
• Remove or reduce fossil fuel subsidies
• Encourage subsidies on renewable energy technologies
• Reduce emissions by imposing Emission Trading Systems
• Stimulate climate smart technologies for food production, agriculture and
manufacturing
• Invest in climate smart infrastructure and energy efficient systems
• Preserve and manage water resources efficiently
• Promote climate resilient lifestyles and behavioural changes
• Introduce Climate Change as a subject in the curriculum of primary education
• Give highest priority to biodiversity, ecosystems and environment at cabinet level
portfolio
• Recognize climate champions and institutions working to preserve climate and
environment

11. We have a choice and opportunity now to change course to avoid a 4°C warmer world.
Multilateral organizations like UN, governments, financial institutions etc, have a
responsibility to lead the way for a collective effort by everyone to act now, act
together and act differently to make that choice for the survival of mankind.
The Choice is in Our Hands
*Courtesy Sunday Times- 2013 your year to go green by Joanne Kotelawala

12. References
1. Wikipedia Greenhouse Gases/Direct greenhouse gas emissions : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenhouse_gas
2. Turn Down the Heat: Why a 4°C World Must Be Avoided World Bank, 2012 : http://www-
wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2012/12/20/000356161_20121220072749/Rendered/PDF/NonAsciiFileName
0.pdf
3. World bank Climate Change Report Warns of Dramatically Warmer World This Century:
http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2012/11/18/Climate-change-report-warns-dramatically-warmer-world-this-century
4. IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis IPCC, 2013 | Pages 1-17 Summary for Policymakers:
http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf
5. NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory main website : http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/obop/mlo/
6. Keeling curve: https://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/keelingcurve/
7. Special Report on emission Scenarios: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_Report_on_Emissions_Scenarios
8. Policy Instruments for Low Emission Development by Moderator: Pablo Benitez, World Bank:
https://d396qusza40orc.cloudfront.net/warmerworld/pdfs/week_4/Week%204_video3.pdf
9. Sri Lanka Red Cross Society/ Emergency appeal launched for the drought affected in Sri Lanka: http://www.redcross.lk/main-news/red-cross-
launches-emergency-appeal-as-climate-change-causes-hardship-in-sri-lanka/
10. Sri Lanka Red Cross Society/ Drought and food crisis pile on misery for over 1.8 million people in Sri Lanka: http://www.redcross.lk/main-
news/drought-and-food-crisis-pile-on-misery-for-over-1-8-million-people-in-sri-lanka/
11. 2013 Your Year to Go Green- Sunday Times Sri Lanka Article by Joanne Kotelawala: http://www.sundaytimes.lk/130106/education/2013-your-
year-to-go-green-27227.html
12. Sri Lanka’s Water falls/Sunday Observer: http://www.sundayobserver.lk/2010/08/29/mag13.asp
13. Unesco.org/Education/Biodiversity/Namal Kamalgoda- Central Highlands of Sri Lanka:
http://www.unesco.org/new/en/education/themes/leading-the-international-agenda/education-for-sustainable-development/biodiversity/