This presentation walks you through the global trends in HVACR, delivered by the current president of AHRI, Stephen Yurek.

1. Global Trends in HVACR
Stephen R. Yurek
AHRI President & CEO

2. Global demand for HVACR is growing
Warming
Climate
Aging
Population
Urbanization Digitalization

3. Challenges are increasing
Decarbonization Energy
Efficiency
Workforce
Circular
Economy
Trade Barriers

4. What our Industry Provides Matters!
Excessive Heat is a
Health Issue
Heating and Cooling
are a Necessity not
a Luxury

5. Drive to Sustainability
Cooling Load
Building Design
Shading
Windows
Systems
Renewables
Storage
Heat Recovery
Operation and Maintenance
Controls
Commissioning
Products
Efficiency
Refrigerants
GWP
Sizing
Materials and Recycling

6. Exciting and
Innovative
Period of
Change
• Industry Consolidation is Accelerating
• Refrigerant Transition is Underway (Again!)
• Global Demand for More Cooling, Energy
Efficiency, and Consumer Preferences are
Driving Innovation

7. Industry Consolidation:
• Economic Growth Tends to Increase Mergers and Acquisitions
• As do changes in consumer preferences and efficiency mandates
• This Round of Mergers Could Shift Governance from West to East
• Majority of companies seeking to merge or acquire are from Asia
• Daikin acquired Goodman (Residential) and McQuay
(Commercial)
• Mitsubishi acquired Climaveneta
• Tica acquired Smardt
• Another major U.S. iconic brand could be next
• Are There Risks From This Trend?

8. Refrigerant Transition
HCFCs
HFCs
A2Ls
A3s?

9. Industry is focused on…
Safe transition
Identifying
and removing
barriers
Meeting
phase-down
commitments

10. AHRTI Project 9007 Whole Room Scale Testing
• Designed to understand the ignition event severity,
not probability of event
Equipment A2Ls A3 (R290)
PTAC X X
Mini-split X
RTU X
Residential AC X
Reach-in cooler X X
Walk-in X
Service error and elec. feedthrough failure X

11. PTAC: A2L vs A3 per UL-60335-2-40
R452B, 1920 grams, 47.4
g/sec
No mitigation
LFL = 11.9% v/v
Small blue flame dissipated right
away; no further propagation
R290, 114 grams, 21 g/sec
No mitigation
LFL = 2.1% v/v
Flame propagates at floor level; two deflagration
vents burst and one melted open

12. Where are we now?
Much better understanding of the ignition
risks and severity under worst case scenarios
that are unlikely to happen
Many household ignition sources and hot
surfaces cannot ignite A2L refrigerants
Training materials and guidelines are being
developed

13. Current Refrigerant trends
Cooling
• Small splits <3kg:
• R-410A, R-407,
• R-32, R452B, R454B
• DX A/C 3kg – 12 kg:
• R-410A, R-407,
• R-32, R452B, R454B,
R513A
• Chillers: R134a, R407C,
R410a, R452B, R454B,
R513A, R514A,
R1233zd(E), R1224yd
(Z), R1234yf, R1234ze(E)
• VRF: R134a, R410A, R32
Refrigeration
• Self-Contained:
•R134a, HC, CO2,
R513A, R448A,
R449A, R452A
• Large equipment:
•R410A, R407, NH4,
CO2
• Small plug-in
equipment:
• R134,R513A,
R410A, HC, CO2,
• Medium size:
•CO2, A2Ls, HC
Heating
• Heat Pumps
• R410A, R32,
CO2
• Water Heaters
•R410A, R134a, R32,
CO2
Recovery / Recycling /
Reclaim
• Need to Increase
recovery, recycling, and
reclaiming.

14. Impact of Refrigerant Change on Technology
• Ensure safety
• Installation, use, maintenance, and decommissioning of equipment
• Enhanced manufacturer requirements
• Training and expertise of technicians working on equipment using flammable
refrigerants
• Designing equipment to limit risk of incidents
• Fewer connections
• No brazing
• Ease of installation and maintenance
• What does this mean for technicians and contractors?

15. Barrier: Code Limitations
Regulatory and safety
barriers on using A2L and A3
refrigerants in homes and
buildings

16. Key Standards
Regions General Standard Product Standard for ACs Product Standard for Refrigeration
US ASHRAE-15 UL 60335-2-40 UL 60335-2-89
International ISO-5149 IEC 60335-2-40 IEC 60335-2-89
Canada CSA B52 CAN/CSA-C22.2 No. 60335-2-40 CAN/CSA-C22.2 No. 60335-2-89
EU EN-378 EN 60335-2-40 EN 60335-2-89

17. Status of Key
Standards
• ASHRAE-15, 2016
• Addendum d (published in Oct. 2018): A2Ls for human
comfort
• Addendum h (published in Oct. 2018): A2Ls for machinery
room
• Stationary Cooling: UL 60335-2-40, Edition 3: Fully enable A2Ls
• Ballot approval of the standard passed in Feb. 2019. 160
comments addressed with final vote August 26, 2019
• Goal: Ready for publication on or before Sep 24, 2019
• Commercial Refrigeration: UL 60335-2-89, Edition 1 (published in
Sep. 2017): allows 150g of any flammable refrigerants
• Edition 2 will be based on IEC 60335-2-89
• IEC 60335-2-89 Edition 3 (published on June 20, 2019)
increased allowable charges to ~500g R290 and 1.2kg A2Ls
• UL 60335-2-89 may have its deviation and have different
charge requirement.

18. Challenge: Knowledge
Knowledge of new
technologies needs to be
relayed to most distributors,
technicians, engineers, building
owners, and consumers

19. Communication is Key
We need to stop just talking to ourselves
Key audiences do not know transition is occurring
• Technicians
• Building owners
• Architects and engineers
• Building code officials
• Fire marshals
Ignorance (lack of knowledge or information) creates fear

20. Innovation
• Cooling
• Variable frequency drives
• Solar-powered
• Energy/cooling storage
• Desiccant evaporation
• Heating
• Hydrogen-enriched gas
• Heat pump systems
• Geothermal
• Gas absorption
• Interconnectivity
• Grid enabled
• App enabled

21. Shift in Focus from Mechanical to IT
System
commissioning
Installation and
maintenance
Control panels
Remote
monitoring and
troubleshooting
Cybersecurity
Over 20 billion
interconnected
devices by 2020
Big data and
analytics

22. What are you doing to prepare
for these changes/opportunities?