The document discusses why scenarios are useful planning tools. Scenarios are used because we can influence the future through our present actions, we seek to anticipate unknown events, and transitions are accelerating. Scenarios are not predictions but explore the consequences of different choices. The document then provides examples of scenario frameworks addressing issues like population growth, energy, and governance and discusses factors to consider when developing scenarios.

1. S C E N A R I O S
C M P 6 9 6 0 G L O B A L S U S T A I N A B L E D E V E L O P M E N T
W H Y
W H A T
H O W
Deep in our hearts,
we would all choose
a scenario with no
surprises. —Pierre Wack

2. W H Y S C E N A R I O S ?
C M P 6 9 6 0 G L O B A L S U S T A I N A B L E D E V E L O P M E N T
 BECAUSE WE CAN ACT
 BECAUSE WE SEEK TO ANTICIPATE UNKNOWNS (DISCONTINUITIES)
 BECAUSE TRANSISTIONS ARE ACCELERATING

3. W H Y N O W ?
C M P 6 9 6 0 G L O B A L S U S T A I N A B L E D E V E L O P M E N T
BECAUSE WE CAN ACT
… at least more effectively
than we could before…
Technology
 Climate models
 Tracking sea ice/glacier loss
 Satellite imagery
 Spatial modeling
(Cellular Automata)
We understand better the
impact of our choices
We know we can do anything
we put our minds to

4. W H Y S C E N A R I O S ?
C M P 6 9 6 0 G L O B A L S U S T A I N A B L E D E V E L O P M E N T
DISCONTINUITIES
 i.e. atomic warfare: It’s not
about the future
(Herman Kahn).
 We know the future will be
different from the past, so
why project?
 Exogenous events
unanticipated by science
‘We live in Extremistan, not Mediocristan’
—Nassim Nicholas Taleb

5. C M P 6 9 6 0 G L O B A L S U S T A I N A B L E D E V E L O P M E N T
W H Y S C E N A R I O S ?
BECAUSE TRANSITIONS ARE ACCELERATING:

6. C M P 6 9 6 0 G L O B A L S U S T A I N A B L E D E V E L O P M E N T
P R E – T R A N S I T I O N

7. C M P 6 9 6 0 G L O B A L S U S T A I N A B L E D E V E L O P M E N T
P R E – T R A N S I T I O N

8. C M P 6 9 6 0 G L O B A L S U S T A I N A B L E D E V E L O P M E N T
P R E – T R A N S I T I O N

9. C M P 6 9 6 0 G L O B A L S U S T A I N A B L E D E V E L O P M E N T
P R E – T R A N S I T I O N

10. C M P 6 9 6 0 G L O B A L S U S T A I N A B L E D E V E L O P M E N T
P R E – T R A N S I T I O N

11. C M P 6 9 6 0 G L O B A L S U S T A I N A B L E D E V E L O P M E N T
P R E – T R A N S I T I O N

12. C M P 6 9 6 0 G L O B A L S U S T A I N A B L E D E V E L O P M E N T
P R E – T R A N S I T I O N

13. C M P 6 9 6 0 G L O B A L S U S T A I N A B L E D E V E L O P M E N T
F I R S T T R A N S I T I O N

14. C M P 6 9 6 0 G L O B A L S U S T A I N A B L E D E V E L O P M E N T
S E C O N D T R A N S I T I O N

15. C M P 6 9 6 0 G L O B A L S U S T A I N A B L E D E V E L O P M E N T
T H I R D T R A N S I T I O N

16. C M P 6 9 6 0 G L O B A L S U S T A I N A B L E D E V E L O P M E N T
S E C O N D A N D T H I R D T R A N S I T I O N

17. W H A T A R E S C E N A R I O S ?
C M P 6 9 6 0 G L O B A L S U S T A I N A B L E D E V E L O P M E N T
AREN’T THESE PROJECTIONS?  Top graphs more like scenarios
 Timeline based on current
knowledge / technologies

18. W H A T A R E S C E N A R I O S ?
C M P 6 9 6 0 G L O B A L S U S T A I N A B L E D E V E L O P M E N T
AREN’T THESE PROJECTIONS? Assumptions:
 Policy likely inadequate
 Markets likely to lead to regime
change

19. W H A T A R E S C E N A R I O S ?
C M P 6 9 6 0 G L O B A L S U S T A I N A B L E D E V E L O P M E N T
AREN’T THESE PROJECTIONS? Assumptions:
 Policy likely to favor natural gas
 Markets likely to favor solar PV

20. W H A T A R E S C E N A R I O S ?
C M P 6 9 6 0 G L O B A L S U S T A I N A B L E D E V E L O P M E N T
AREN’T THESE PROJECTIONS? Assumptions:
 Markets lag on decarbonization
 Policy best tool for eliminating
liquid fuels for passenger
vehicles

21. W H A T A R E S C E N A R I O S ?
C M P 6 9 6 0 G L O B A L S U S T A I N A B L E D E V E L O P M E N T
Not about the future
Not about predictions
IT’S ABOUT CONSEQUENCES FROM CHOICES WE MAKE RIGHT NOW.

22. C M P 6 9 6 0 G L O B A L S U S T A I N A B L E D E V E L O P M E N T
LADIES HOME JOURNAL, 1900
F A L S E S O M E W H A T T R U E T R U T H Y
P O P U L A R S C E N A R I O S

23. C M P 6 9 6 0 G L O B A L S U S T A I N A B L E D E V E L O P M E N T
ADVERTISING CAMPAIGN FOR HILDEBRAND’S CHOCOLATE, 1900 Themes: Transportation, Leisure
Allegory?: North Pole warming
Sci-Fi?
P O P U L A R S C E N A R I O S

24. C M P 6 9 6 0 G L O B A L S U S T A I N A B L E D E V E L O P M E N T
ADVERTISEMENT FROM JAPAN: MID-CENTURY Themes: Transportation,
Urbanization
P O P U L A R S C E N A R I O S

25. P O P U L A R S C E N A R I O S
C M P 6 9 6 0 G L O B A L S U S T A I N A B L E D E V E L O P M E N T
FILM CONCEPT ART, 2006 Themes: Transportation,
Overconsumption, Hopelessness,
Urbanization

26. S C E N A R I O S N O W
C M P 6 9 6 0 G L O B A L S U S T A I N A B L E D E V E L O P M E N T
APPLETON ON LYNAS
Six degrees of climate inferno:
 Below 2˚ = avoid apocalypse.
 IPCC hasn’t imagined
Dante’s darkest scenarios.
1˚
2˚
3˚
4˚
5˚
6˚
APOCALYPSENOAPOCALYPSE
?
NOIPCCDATA
7+˚
1˚
2˚
3˚
4˚
5˚
6˚
7˚
Drought in W. US
‘Day turns to night’
Flight from S. Spain
Super-hurricane
Odessa: Texas
Mass extinction
Beyond
IPCC estimate*

27. 3˚
S C E N A R I O S N O W
C M P 6 9 6 0 G L O B A L S U S T A I N A B L E D E V E L O P M E N T
REVISED IPCC SCENARIOS (2013) * Predicted change from
period 1986-2005
Source: IPCC
2˚
4˚
5˚
6˚
7+˚
Predicted temperature increases under two scenarios
Rise in average surface temperature by 2081-2100*
Lowest scenario (RCP 2.6) Highest scenario (RCP 8.5)

28. C O N V E N T I O N A L
C M P 6 9 6 0 G L O B A L S U S T A I N A B L E D E V E L O P M E N T
MARKET
FORTRESS
WORLD
ECO-
COMMUNAL
POLICY BARBARISM
NEW
SUSTAIN-
ABILITY
 Growth outpaces efficiency
 Private Sector, International
banks, WTO
 UN is ‘toothless
 Brown Tech
 Government Initiatives
 Global Citizens movement
 May be sustainable,
but may be undesirable
 Could evolve into
New Sustainability
 'Planetary apartheid’
 Rich in protective enclaves
 Fortress collapse would
lead to breakdown
 Breakdown
 Think Mad Max
 Could have a ‘second wind’,
evolving into Eco-Communalism
 Earth Stewards
 Think Gandhi and friends
in Hobbiton
 Permaculture
 Market-constraining policies
 Poor and Rich de-polarize
 UN supersedes nation-state
 Green Tech
B R E A K D O W N S U S T A I N A B I L I T Y

29. W I N N E R S A N D L O S E R S
C M P 6 9 6 0 G L O B A L S U S T A I N A B L E D E V E L O P M E N T
 Private Sector
 International banks, WTO
 Brown Tech
 Government
 Global Citizens movement
 The rich—sort-of
 Survivalist enthusiasts
 Hippies
 Global Citizens Movement
 The middle class
 UN
 Green Tech
MARKET
FORTRESS
WORLD
ECO-
COMMUNAL
POLICY BARBARISM
NEW
SUSTAIN-
ABILITY

30. W I N N E R S A N D L O S E R S
C M P 6 9 6 0 G L O B A L S U S T A I N A B L E D E V E L O P M E N T
MARKET
FORTRESS
WORLD
ECO-
COMMUNAL
POLICY BARBARISM
NEW
SUSTAIN-
ABILITY
 Governments
 Private enterprise
 The poor
 Everyone
 The rich
 No-one

31. S C E N A R I O M A T R I X
OGILVY AND SCHWARTZ
List factors and trends
Choose 2 most critical
Assemble in matrix
List potential outcomes in
respective cells
C M P 6 9 6 0 G L O B A L S U S T A I N A B L E D E V E L O P M E N T
 Outcome
 Outcome
 Outcome
 Outcome
A B
A
B

32. Pop. Growth
C M P 6 9 6 0 G L O B A L S U S T A I N A B L E D E V E L O P M E N T
 Outcome
 Outcome
 Outcome
 Outcome
Low High
Low
High
EnergyDescent
 Population growth
 Global governance
 Oil prices
 Urbanization
 Energy descent
 Solar technology
 Etc.

33. D I S C U S S I O N
C M P 6 9 6 0 G L O B A L S U S T A I N A B L E D E V E L O P M E N T
WHAT REASONS DO WE HAVE TO BE PESSIMISTIC / OPTIMISTIC?
WHAT DO WE THINK IS LIKELY?
WHAT ARE SOME DISCONTINUITIES WE HAVEN’T CONSIDERED?