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CFA Institute Research Challenge
Hosted by
CFA Society Minneapolis, Minnesota
Bethel University
CFA INSTITUTE RESEARCH CHALLENGE 12/21/14
2
Bethel University Student Research
This report is published for educational purposes
only by students competing in the CFA Institute
Research Challenge.
Date: 12/21/2014 Ticker: GGG:NYSE
Coverage
We initiate coverage on Graco, Inc. (GGG) with a 12-month price target of $81.50 and a
HOLD recommendation. This is a 3.2% return on the current stock price as of
December 21, 2014. Our price target was based on a Discounted Cash Flow Model in
addition to various per share valuation methods and qualitative assessment about the
macroeconomy and industry growth in the future.
Solid but conservative business model.
Although GGG is a strong company from many angles, management’s current approach
tends to be more conservative. This increases the likelihood of a potential missed
opportunity that could have driven overall growth at a higher rate. We see this as being
an incredibly important potential miss, specifically in our current slow growth
macroeconomic environment.
Impressive share of the market not yielding significant growth.
GGG has incredible margins from serving a niche market and essentially having the
advantage of being able to charge a high price for their high quality products. The
company does not however show signs of gaining significant market share, or
significantly increasing their bottom line despite insignificant threats of new entrance
to their market, low threat of substitute products, low bargaining power of customers
and suppliers and low competition in the industry. A detailed Porter’s Five Forces
analysis can be seen in Appendix 7
At 20.71x NTM EPS of $3.95 combined with DCF Analysis, GGG appears fully
valued with little upside.
At this valuation level GGG’s premium over its industry IME is at a historical high as
well as right at it’s 52 week high. We do not see the company growing at a pace over
projected estimates and do not see the market granting a higher multiple for GGG.
Company Overview
Graco, Inc. designs and manufactures equipment to move highly viscous, difficult-to-
handle fluids and coatings. The company operates in three operating segments,
Industrial, Contractor, and Lubrication within the Diversified Machinery Industry.
Business Model/Strategic Focus. Graco has an enduring business model that has
continually helped the company navigate the ever-changing global economy. This
model includes four strategies for long-term growth: new product development,
targeting new markets for existing technologies, geographic expansion, and key
acquisitions. The CFO Jim Graner recently commented on November 6, 2014 at the CFA
analyst day, “The strategies are the same today as they were ten years ago. We believe
in our strategies. They have served us well and we believe will continue to serve us
well.”
Industry: Diversified Machinery
22.0%
23.0%
24.0%
25.0%
26.0%
27.0%
28.0%
-
200.0
400.0
600.0
800.0
1,000.0
1,200.0
1,400.0
1,600.0
2011A
2012A
2013A
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
Sales and Margin
Source: FactSet, Team Estimates
Source: Yahoo! Finance
CFA INSTITUTE RESEARCH CHALLENGE 12/21/14
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Graco’s strong focus on the key business components of operational excellence, customer
intimacy, and product leadership give the company a strong current and future position
within the global market.
Management. Graco has a strong management team with broad experience in the
industry. Their consistent adherence to long-term strategies paired with their talented
team has been one of the major components to which Graco can attribute its success.
Graco has a culture intently focused on innovation and product quality that has been set
by the management team. On our site visit, we were able to see that employee retention
was strong, backed by a comment, “You are new here if you haven’t been around for ten
years or more.” Detailed management overview is in Appendix 16.
Patrick J. McHale, 52. President and Chief Executive Officer, a position he has held since
June 2007.
James A. Graner, 69. Chief Financial Officer, a position he has held in conjunction with
Treasurer from September 2005 to June 2011.
Christian E. Rothe, 40. Vice President and Treasurer, a position he has held since June
2011. Prior to Graco, held various positions in business development and accounting and
finance.
Jim Graner, CFO, will be retiring in the fall of 2015. We are confident that the hiring
decisions made by the company, whether external or internal, will be consistent with the
strategies employed throughout the company’s history.
Industry Overview and Competitive Positioning
As part of the Diversified Machinery Industry, we used ratios and models comparing four
main competitors with Graco’s performance: Colfax (CFX), Nordson (NDSN), Idex (IEX),
and FlowServe (FLS). The company’s relatively strong financial ratios, when compared to
competitors, stems from the high ROI provided to customers and the premium that Graco
charges for its products.
Although finding a list of trading competitors in the Diversified Machinery Industry is not
difficult, comparing these companies to Graco poses a significant challenge. The
diversified nature of the industry eliminates the plausibility of comparing most
companies in the industry side-by-side. Graco currently offers over 60,000 SKU’s, most of
which have different competitors entirely. Therefore, a ratio analysis between
competitors primarily provides guidance in our projections and target price models,
rather than a direct comparison.
Operational Excellence. Graco has centralized manufacturing operations that have
allowed the company to effectively leverage their overhead, driving their cost savings,
reliability, and quality in their products. This is well exemplified by the highest profit
margins of any of their competitors (see Exhibit A). They emphasize return on
investment and believe in both manufacturing and engineering excellence by investing
heavily in their factories as well as their R&D programs. They have a relentless focus on
quality and efficiency in their factories. Their operational excellence, specifically within
manufacturing, has allowed Graco the flexibility to be a rare company that has a high
product mix with a low volume of sales. Even with such high quantities of units, their
flexible manufacturing infrastructure, including shared components within products,
allows them to quickly and efficiently transition to create a wide array of products,
depending upon sales demand (Exhibit B).
Source: FactSet, Team Estimates
Exhibit B: Source: Graco Numbers
Exhibit A. Source: FactSet
CFA INSTITUTE RESEARCH CHALLENGE 12/21/14
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Customer, Distributor, and Supplier Intimacy. Graco has strong relationships with
material suppliers, end users, and channel partners. Their central attention is niche
markets in which they can charge a premium price for their high-quality and specific
products that are cost-effectively manufactured. In serving niche markets, they have a
determined customer-centered approach they use in developing new products to solve
new problems and continually improve existing product lines.
Despite selling heavily through distribution, Graco has made sure to stay close to the end
users to ensure that their products are not only the quality that they expected, but also to
seek out new opportunities for future innovation. They have a distinguished sales staff
that are highly trained and focused on showing their customers the high ROI they receive
from investing in Graco products. For example, in their contractor segment, the sales
people will travel to demonstrate products to potential customers. They allow the
contractors to use the products for a period of time to prove the quality and ROI inherent
in the high-quality equipment. Close relationships, such as these, allow Graco to maintain
their position as a product leader in these niche markets.
Product Leadership. Spending three times the amount of research and development as
their competitors, Graco ensures that their products are of the highest quality and
innovation (see Exhibit C, D). Their quality standards prove to be much higher as well, as
the company has committed to rigorous testing 10x the regulatory standards, compared
with competitors’ equipment that might break down at 2x or 3x regulatory standards.
Their product development is customer-centered and “enables customers to reduce their
use of labor, material and energy, improve quality and achieve environmental
compliance.” They invest heavily to help cut costs for their end-users and those customers
are willing to pay a premium for these solutions that help achieve a higher ROI on their
own work. In addition, Graco performs quality and accuracy testing at each important
juncture within the manufacturing process in order to achieve 100% product quality
certification.
Environmental Compliance. Graco maintains a strong commitment to environmentally
friendly machinery. In their recent acquisition of QED Environmental Systems, the
company has taken steps towards “environmental monitoring and remediation”. EcoQuip,
another recent acquisition, “offers an eco-friendly abrasive blasting technology”. Graco
also launched Diesel Exhaust Fluid dispensing solutions to facilitate clean and hygienic
disposal of these fluids in garages and heavy equipment maintenance facilities. The ability
for Graco to enter into and capitalize on environmentally friendly equipment will strongly
facilitate growth for the company’s top-line objectives.
Shareholder Value. Graco’s management maintains a strong initiative to provide
maximum shareholder value. This can be seen through two avenues: Dividends and Share
Buybacks. Graco strives to continuously provide a dividend at 30% of EPS (Exhibit E).
This per share valuation was recently raised to $1.20 on an annual basis, matching our
team’s projections. Graco has also announced aggressive commitment to reducing diluted
shares outstanding under 60M with a target by the end of FY2015, done at an average rate
of 10,000 shares per day. To reflect this commitment, we have employed a target common
shares level of 59.9 for FY2015 valuation.
Macroeconomic Outlook
The domestic macroeconomy shows slow, but steady growth in the post-recession
environment. We expect U.S. GDP to grow between 2-3% in 2015 (see Appendix 14-15).
Graco’s annual sales performance is fairly correlated with GDP, thus we expected to see
sales figures to grow minimally at 2%. After collecting and analyzing various economic
indicators and indices, we have determined a correlation with Graco’s sales and stock
price on a few key arenas: Oil and Mining Industries, Housing and Construction, and
Industrial Indices. End Market breakdown can be seen in Exhibit F.
Exhibit C: Source: Graco Numbers
Exhibit D. Source: FactSet, Team Estimates
Exhibit E Source: FactSet
Dividend Payout Ratio
Exhibit F: Source: Graco Numbers
Exhibit E Source: FactSet
CFA INSTITUTE RESEARCH CHALLENGE 12/21/14
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The success of Graco’s Lubrication segment, and the company as a whole, is loosely tied
to the success of various mining, oil, and gas indices (See Exhibit G). Paired with the
company’s recent acquisition of UK-based Alco Valves Group and a potential
improvement in mining and the recent boom in the oil industries, we see strong growth
prospects for proportionate sales stemming from these markets. See Appendix 14-15 for
complete analysis.
The success of Graco’s Contractor segment is strongly tied to the success of various
housing market health indicators (See Exhibit H). We forecast slow, but steady growth in
the housing market based on low interest rates and relatively relaxing credit. See
Appendix 14-15 for complete analysis.
Our main comparison index is an industrial production index. We have used comparison
trends and correlations between Graco’s valuation and the valuation of the index as
guidance for our target price models.
See Appendix 14-15 for complete analysis.
Operating Segment Overview
Graco, Inc. operates with three operating segments, Industrial, Contractor, and
Lubrication. These three segments are tied to economic indicators that correlate with
sales production on the segment level.
Industrial. Per management comment, Graco considers the Industrial segment to be the
“rockstar”, boasting roughly 59% of the company’s sales with a margin of 32.3% in
FY2013. Through this segment, Graco provides products that spray protective coatings,
fast-set foam insulation, sealants and adhesives, and other sanitation based fluids.
Opportunity for expansion and acquisition exists primarily in the Industrial segment due
to the wide array of end markets.
Performance. Industrial will continue posting the strongest margin, ranging between 32-
33%. However, Industrial share of total sales will slowly taper off to about 58% of sales
as the other segments gain market share, characteristic of pre-recession levels.
Contractor. Contractor directs its sales toward three broad areas: paints, texture, and
pavement maintenance. A primary catalyst for growth exists with the conversion of
manual brush and roller techniques to spray applicators. This is the second largest
segment by sales, representing 28-30% of overall sales and a margin between 20-23%.
Performance. We estimate that contractor will represent 32% of sales in 2015 and will
rise to 33-34% in the years following. Contractor performance is tied to movements in
the industrial and construction industries and, with slow post-recession growth, we
expect room for growth in the upcoming years. Margin will rest at 22.0% for 2015, as
contractor performance continues to strengthen.
Lubrication. Lubrication derives its sales around two main areas: industrial machinery
lubrication and vehicle services. Therefore, the segment is reliant on success in the Auto
and O&NG Industries. The company produces equipment that allows customers to
manually and automatically apply lubrication fluids to machinery and equipment. In
2013, Lubrication represented 10% of overall sales, with a strong margin of 20.6%.
Performance. Lubrication revenues will grow very slowly, due to depressed
commodities prices in the mining and oil industries. Margin will remain at or above 21%,
with share of sales remaining at 9.0%, reflecting little to no growth in O&NG industry.
Exhibit G: Source: Bloomberg
-
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
12/1/09
6/1/10
12/1/10
6/1/11
12/1/11
6/1/12
12/1/12
6/1/13
12/1/13
6/1/14
Ind. Prod.
Mining
GGG Monthly
Price
Exhibit H: Source: Bloomberg
Source: FactSet, Team Estimates
CFA INSTITUTE RESEARCH CHALLENGE 12/21/14
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53%25%
22%
54%26%
20%
54%26%
20%
53%27%
20%
Geographic Sales
Blue: Americas
Red: EMEA
Green: Asia-Pacific
2012 2013
2014E 2015E
Employee Efficiency
Sales Per Employee. An important analysis to keep tabs on, we compared
Graco’s employee/sales ratio for a nine year period, tracking efficiency pre-
and post-recession. The results were extremely conservative, with the
company clearly not gaining any material efficiencies or synergies through
their employee head-count. This supports our analysis that the company has
reached a maturity stage and will struggle to continue its high historical
growth rates.
Geographic Breakdown
Graco has diversified its presence in many regions, which proves effective in
avoiding economic downturns in any one country. Per management
comment, the company employs local and regional sales personnel that live
where they sell, promoting efficiency. In northern Africa, the market is
served by salespeople from France and in certain areas of Saudi Arabia, the
company serves the market with salespeople from the UK, both common
practices in the industry. As the company is currently in the process of
adding on-the-ground salespeople in the denoted regions, we expect growth
from these markets.
Americas. Graco’s production in the Americas
comprises roughly 55% of overall company sales.
Two-thirds of overall sales. Sales production from this
region is largely tied to housing, and general
economic health indicators. Growth opportunity
exists with potential expansion into South America,
noted by the company’s recent commitment to
boosting the sales force on the continent. However, as
the developed market in the United States is difficult
to foster significant expansion, we see this number
staying flat for the near-term.
Europe, Middle East, Africa. EMEA comprises the
next largest segment for Graco’s sales, at roughly 25%
of sales. Europe presents opportunity in emerging
markets, while Graco’s presence in the Middle East
and Africa is minimal, presenting strong opportunity
for expansion. We see EMEA’s share of sales
increasing in FY2014 and FY2015 backed by
expansion opportunity and increased volume from the
Alco-Valves acquisition.
Asia-Pacific. The Asia-Pacific segment is comprised
mainly of China, Japan, and Australia, with
surrounding islands included. This geographic
segment comprises roughly 20% of Graco’s sales. The
Asia-Pacific region presents the greatest room for
development and future expansion. Much of the
success of this region stems from productivity in
China, and given the macroeconomic outlook in the
country, we have taken a conservative stance on
growth of sales from this region, keeping sales at 20%
for FY2014 and FY2015.Source: Company
Data, Team Estimates
Source: The Conference
Board
CFA INSTITUTE RESEARCH CHALLENGE 12/21/14
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China GDP Growth Outlook. China, one of the
world’s largest economies, is a significant piece of
Graco’s Asia-Pacific sales. The International
Monetary Fund suggested, in 2014, that China
projected GDP growth is between 6.5-7.0%, down
from current estimates of 7.5% for 2015. Chinese
economists suggest that the economy needs growth
above 7.0% in order to foster job creation to support
the growing population. China’s economic data can
be seen in the Appendix 14.
Valuation
Our valuation are based on a discounted cash model, the details of which can be seen in
Appendix 8. Our estimated sales CAGR from 2014 through 2018E is 6.3% paired with Net
Income CAGR of 6.45%, as the company exhibits signs of a mature company – shrinking
sales growth opportunity with increased margin efficiency. It must be noted that these
growth rates will factor in the 2008-2009 financial crisis, representing growth rates that
fall far below historical sales growth of 9%. Graco management strives for top-line sales
growth of 10%, with two-thirds from organic and one-third from acquisitions. Our
models estimates are more conservative, due to Graco’s current size and shaky global
economic conditions in the post-financial crisis environment.
Conservative Estimates. Though
Graco’s management team targets top-
line sales growth of 10%, our analysis
suggests the company will not be able
to reach these historical goals,
especially given Graco’s maturity and
current established markets.
Sales Assumptions. In order to more
accurately project sales revenues in the
next five years, we have broken down
sales by operating segment. Macroeconomic trends were used to draw estimated trend
lines between sales growth within each segment and the level of economic activity.
Industries and indicators covered include Housing, O&NG, and Mining Industries on a
domestic and global basis. Details can be seen in Appendix 8.
Discounted Cash Flow Analysis – $81.71.
Our DCF valuation projects a 12-month target price of $81.71 based on an 8% top-line
growth scenario for FY2015E. This valuation stems from an average comparing the
Perpetuity Growth Method and the Exit Multiple Method to converge on a target price
(Exhibit I). Our detailed model can be seen in Appendix 8.
Our models are based around top-line sales growth as analyzed by forecasting revenue
for the Industrial, Construction and Lubrication segments. Growth calculations for each
segment were based primarily on a percentage of sales or assets. From here we
projected revenue forward at a flat growth rate due primarily to a similar projected
capital structure as stated by management.
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E
Consolidated Geographic Americas
EMEA
Asia-Pacific
Exhibit I. Source: Team Estimates
Exhibit J. Source: Team Estimates.
Exhibit K. Source: St Louis Fed
CFA INSTITUTE RESEARCH CHALLENGE 12/21/14
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Weighted Average Cost of Capital. WACC is based on industry competitors and market
conditions in combination with Graco’s historical capital structure (Exhibit J). WACC is
5.94% based on a continual capital structure of 50% equity (9.39% cost) and 50% debt
(2.49% cost). Cost of Common Equity was calculated by a peer comparison of quarterly
equity return compared to a weighted average of the S&P500 Index and the Dow Jones
Industrial Average. Levered Beta (2.70) was calculated by deriving the unlevered beta of
three competitors, IDEX, Colfax, and Nordson, and determining an average consensus.
The risk free rate of 1.59% is set as the 5-Year T-Bond as of 12/2/2014. Long-term
growth, g, is set at 2.71%, an average of the Real Potential GDP Growth Rate factoring in
145 quarters of domestic economic data (Exhibit K). We feel this is an accurate
representation due to Graco’s strong ties to economic strength. Detailed WACC
components can be seen in the Appendix 8.
Further Valuation Methods.
Price to Earnings per Share – $80.27. Our PE analysis is a blend of two parts, as seen in
Exhibit L. We believe shares warrant a premium multiple given a currently strong
financial position, strong long-term growth stemming from both organic and strategic
acquisitions, and the company’s ability to provide a high ROI to its end users. Using the
12/26/14 NTM-PE multiple of 20.71, we arrive at a projected target price of 81.80 for
FY2015.
Graco, Inc. also carries a historical P/E premium over the industry IME of about 20.8% on
a 5-year timeline (Exhibit M). This number is currently below historical trends, so we
believe the P/E of the company will outperform relative to the industry over the next few
months to in line with historical levels. We believe the business cycle has peaked,
generating an Industrial Machinery P/E at our team’s estimate of 16.50. We Graco’s P/E
at 19.93, as it typically trades at a 20.8% premium above the IME P/E. This P/E of 19.93
leads to an estimated 2015 stock price of $78.73. A blend of the two target prices reaches
$80.27.
Price to Sales per Share – $81.04. Price to Sales per Share was calculated using
assumptions about the company’s historical sales per share and price to sales per share
ratios. Graco clearly carries a premium over competitors in the Sales per Share ratio, as
seen in Exhibit N. Details can be seen in Appendix 10.
Price to Cash Flow per Share - $81.73. Price to Cash Flow per Share was calculated
using assumptions about the company’s historical Cash Flow per Share and Price to Cash
Flow per Share trends. The premium on Price to Sales per Share and Price to Cash Flow
per Share is due to its higher margin stemming from high operational efficiencies
compared to competitors.
Details can be seen in the Appendix 11.
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35 Daily NTM PE - GGG/IME With Spread Spread
GGG
IME
Exhibit M. Source: FactSet
-
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
5.00
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Price to Sales Per Share
Over Time
GGG
NDSN
CFX
IEX
FLS
Exhibit N. Source: FactSet
Exhibit L. Source: FactSet, Excel
-
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014E
2015E
Industry EV/Sales
(Source:Factset, Team Estimates)
Exhibit O. Source: FactSet.
CFA INSTITUTE RESEARCH CHALLENGE 12/21/14
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EV/Sales. Historically, Graco shows a premium over our four trading competitors in this
ratio. We recognize Graco’s valuation correlation with our chosen trading comps, by
employing our DCF template to determine NDSN, CFX, and IEX as the closest valuation
competitors in our calculation of WACC (see correlations in Exhibit O). We also recognize
Graco’s valuation as the leader in the industry, confirming our PE premium of 20.8% over
the industry. EV to Sales historically indicates the cost of purchasing a company’s sales.
Graco’s higher EV to Sales compared to trading comps demonstrates its leadership and
maturity in its industry class.
Conclusion. Graco’s valuation performance is closely tied with industry competitors,
noted by the tickers in Exhibits N and O. Using industry comps as guidance, we are able
to place Graco in a premium position in a variety of metrics. We conclude that Graco’s
current P/E premium over the Industry of 19.1% will expand to the historical level of
20.8%. However, with our negative outlook on the Industrial Machinery Index, we expect
the Industry P/E to shrink from its current level of 17.4 to about 16.5 by FY2015 (Exhibit
P). Graco will remain the leader in the industry, but will experience P/E tightening with
the industry.
Investment Summary
We are initiating coverage of Graco, Inc. (GGG) with a HOLD rating and a target price of $81.50 for FY2015. This
offers a 3.2% return over the current stock price as of December 21, 2014. Our valuation is derived from a
blending of our target price models, and weighting our target price evenly with our Discounted Cash Flow
Model.
Graco, Inc. will continue to outperform the industry and peers due to its competitive positioning, long-term
growth tactics, and product excellence. The company’s management effectively employs a long-term strategy,
which centers on steady growth. Through both organic and inorganic growth we expect Graco to grow at a top-
line CAGR of 6.3% for the period ’14-’18E based on conservative estimates and historic top-line sales growth
forecasts.
Although the company is highly profitable with an effective leadership team, we see Graco as a mature company
that will require a riskier change in strategy to achieve maximum potential upside. A tangible example of this
can be seen in the allocation of dollars from the sale of the Liquid Finishing business in 2015. The company has
publically stated they will repay debt with these proceeds. This will ultimately decrease their leverage, which
affirms our conservative estimates.
In support of our target price and hold recommendation, we see Graco, Inc. as a financially strong, mature
company that will outperform peers for years to come. In both the short and long run, the company will need to
increase their tolerance of risk to drive higher levels of growth in order to maintain their goals of top-line
growth at 10%.
Financial Analysis
In this section, we will outline the assumptions made in our analysis. Full financial statements can be seen in the
Appendix 1- 5 and we determine sales CAGR from 2010-2018 to be 9.13%, with EBIT CAGR at 12.89%. Our
assumptions are fairly consistent when compared to Graco’s management expectations of 10% top-line growth
and 12% bottom line growth
5-Year GGG Price w/ Daily Volume
Exhibit P. Source: FactSet, Team Estimates
CFA INSTITUTE RESEARCH CHALLENGE 12/21/14
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Top-Line Sales Approach Criticism. Our valuation models are heavily based on top-line
sales growth estimates. Therefore, with our models contingent on accurate projections,
we determined that a sensitivity analysis was appropriate to stress test our sales growth
assumptions. This analysis can be seen below. We converged on a historical sales growth
rate of 8% for FY15, reflecting moderate economic growth in global markets. Scenarios in
which sales growth falls above and below 8% were rejected due to our team’s consensus
opinions on global economic health. We feel that 10% growth is unobtainable for Graco
based on two reasons: 1) Their capital structure is too conservative, and 2) Economic
markets have not fully recovered, post-Recession.
Stable Growth in Earnings. For Graco, FY2014 looks to be another year of standard top-
and bottom-line growth. Continuation of steady growth in earnings through FY2015 and
beyond rests on the heels of two primary drivers. First, we must remain bullish on the
market through 2015, especially given Graco’s correlation with overall market
movements as a major member of the Industrial Machinery industry. Second, as stated by
the company directly, “we will continue to do what we always do, slow and steady
growth.” However, in the dynamic, post-recession market, these long-term tactics may
not be enough for Graco to continue to post its historical 10% growth rate goals.
Margin Analysis. Graco has historically exhibited higher margins when compared to
peers, specifically profit and operating margins over the past 5 years, by 15%. This stems from the premium
charged for the company’s products. We feel that these margins may receive pressure from shrinking top-line
growth and the general state of maturity reached by the company, but will continue to remain relatively high
when compared to peers. Ratio and margin analysis can be seen in Exhibit Q.
Allocation of Cash Proceeds. Graco is in a unique position in which the company will have access to roughly
$800M in debt-based capital to expend on the company through credit lines, uncharacteristic of the cash-light
company. Per management guidance, we see a few potential avenues for cash expenditure:
1. Continued, or expanded share buyback program through FY2015 and potentially FY2016
2. Increased dividend payout – Note the increase to $1.20/share in 2014, an average growth rate of ~8.5%
3. Strategic Acquisitions of a medium to smaller magnitude (<$250M) due to FTC regulation
4. Further increase R&D expenditure dominance, potentially 5+% of sales
5. Further exploration into the recovering O&NG market, boosting sales share to 10% from current 6%
Profitability – DuPont Analysis. Graco exhibits a high five-year average return on equity of 39% coming from a
high quantity, low volume mix which yields relatively high net income margins and asset turnover (1.12 5yr avg).
Our forecasts indicates an estimated drop in ROE to 35-36% primarily due to a lower net income margin and
asset turnover caused by the maturation of the company. Details can be seen in Exhibit R below.
Conclusion. Our analysis aligns with our investment summary; Graco is
a highly stable and profitable company with an enduring business
model that will enable the company to succeed for years to come. We do
not see overwhelming indications in our analysis that push us to see
Graco outperforming conservative profitability or growth estimates.
Exhibit Q. Source: FactSet, Team Estimates
Exhibit R: FactSet, Team Estimates
CFA INSTITUTE RESEARCH CHALLENGE 12/21/14
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Investment Risks and Opportunities
Divesture of Liquid Finishing Business. In Accordance with FTC regulations, Graco has agreed to divest its
interest in the Liquid Finishing business of a 2012 acquisition from Illinois Tool Works. The announced sale of
this business to Carlisle Company will realize an estimated $570M in cash. Speculation and uncertainty exists as
to Graco’s use of this cash in the upcoming business year. Graco management has announced a commitment to
paying down roughly $300M of their current repayable debt from a revolving credit line. We believe the
company will reissue this debt at a cheaper rate, keeping their capital structure at 50% equity, 50% debt, a
structure consistent with historical trends.
Future Acquisition Strategy. Uncertainty arises in Graco’s acquisition strategy for the future. With the recent
FTC order to divest the Liquid Finishing business, we conclude that Graco will have an inability to pursue
acquisitions of high magnitude in the future. We believe the company will keep acquisitions at middle levels,
between $100-250M. We believe these acquisitions will generally represent new expansionary industries, or
industries in which Graco’s current presence is non-dominant. However, Graco’s maturity and size will limit
growth opportunity in the future, both organically and inorganically.
Growth Opportunities
Expansion into South America and Africa. Graco management has labeled expansion as a key to growth.
Graco has the opportunity to capture new markets, especially within developing and emerging economies.
Oil and Natural Gas Industry. With its recent acquisition of UK-based Alco Valves Group, Graco is
positioned to strengthen its presence in the O&NG Industry. O&NG currently accounts for 6% of the
company’s business, and we see this expanding as the industry recovers on the back of rising commodity
prices in the future.
End-User Conversion. Graco continues to pursue opportunities through the conversion of manual brush
and roller paint techniques to spray applicators. Results have been disappointing, but strong upside exists if
Graco can capture the development in emerging economies and smaller cities.
Product Development and Research. Graco maintains a commitment to product excellence backed by
consistently keeping R&D expense at 4.5-5.0% of sales. In addition, through the hiring of top employees with
new ideas in the engineering and development areas, Graco can continue to produce the best products in the
industry. Margins are reliant on continued adherence to these guidelines.
Threats to Growth
Sluggish housing market in the United States. Contractor sales, through home center stores, are tied with
the US housing market. Strict home-mortgage requirements in the post-recession environment places
pressure on sustained growth. See Appendix 15 for details.
Acquisition opportunity. Graco needs to continuously acquire new companies and segments in order to
stay viable atop the industry as the quality product leader. Their recent acquisition and dissolution of ITW’s
Liquid Finishing Business projects uncertainties in the company’s ability to acquire reasonably viable
businesses in the future.
Geopolitical tension in China. With direct business in China and Hong Kong, Graco is susceptible to the
political turmoil that has been developing.
Slow growth and potential recession in Europe. While our models are based on the assumption that
Europe avoids recession, we have factored in sensitivity analyses to show what the company’s business
could look like in an economic downturn.
Discontinuation of the R&D Tax Credit. A potential discontinuation would adversely affect the company’s
R&D expenditure. This would force a business model revamp as Graco’s competitive advantage is centered
around new, high quality products.
CFA	
  INSTITUTE	
  RESEARCH	
  CHALLENGE	
   	
   	
   	
   	
   	
   12/23/14	
  
Appendix	
  1.	
  Income	
  Statement	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
CFA	
  INSTITUTE	
  RESEARCH	
  CHALLENGE	
   	
   	
   	
   	
   	
   12/23/14	
  
Appendix	
  2.	
  Balance	
  Sheet	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
CFA	
  INSTITUTE	
  RESEARCH	
  CHALLENGE	
   	
   	
   	
   	
   	
   12/23/14	
  
Appendix	
  3.	
  Statement	
  of	
  Cash	
  Flows	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
CFA	
  INSTITUTE	
  RESEARCH	
  CHALLENGE	
   	
   	
   	
   	
   	
   12/23/14	
  
Appendix	
  4.	
  Common-­‐Size	
  Income	
  Statement	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
CFA	
  INSTITUTE	
  RESEARCH	
  CHALLENGE	
   	
   	
   	
   	
   	
   12/23/14	
  
	
  
Appendix	
  5.	
  Common	
  Size	
  Balance	
  Sheet	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
CFA	
  INSTITUTE	
  RESEARCH	
  CHALLENGE	
   	
   	
   	
   	
   	
   12/23/14	
  
	
  
Appendix	
  6.	
  Selected	
  Graco-­‐Constructed	
  Charts.	
  Source:	
  2013	
  Presentation	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
CFA	
  INSTITUTE	
  RESEARCH	
  CHALLENGE	
   	
   	
   	
   	
   	
   12/23/14	
  
	
  
Appendix	
  7.	
  Porter’s	
  Five	
  Forces	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
Threat	
  of	
  New	
  Entrants.	
  Insignificant.	
  Graco,	
  
and	
  its	
  competitors,	
  have	
  a	
  dominant	
  presence	
  in	
  
the	
  market.	
  The	
  products	
  provided	
  are	
  expensive	
  
to	
  produce,	
  industry	
  customer	
  relationships	
  are	
  
strong,	
  and	
  business	
  models	
  have	
  long-­‐term	
  
focus.	
  Smaller	
  companies	
  will	
  be	
  absorbed	
  by	
  
larger	
  companies.	
  
Threat	
  of	
  Substitute	
  Products.	
  
Low.	
  Graco	
  maintains	
  
commitment	
  to	
  providing	
  the	
  
most	
  expensive	
  product	
  that	
  
provides	
  the	
  highest	
  ROI	
  for	
  
end-­‐users.	
  Graco	
  has	
  strong	
  
customer	
  relationships,	
  but	
  
until	
  the	
  customer	
  switches	
  to	
  a	
  
Graco	
  product,	
  they	
  will	
  remain	
  
with	
  the	
  cheaper	
  products.	
  
Bargaining	
  Power	
  of	
  Customers.	
  Low.	
  
Similar	
  to	
  substitutes,	
  Graco	
  has	
  the	
  
highest	
  quality	
  product	
  on	
  the	
  market,	
  but	
  
also	
  charges	
  the	
  highest	
  price.	
  Customers	
  
are	
  willing	
  to	
  pay	
  the	
  premium	
  as	
  long	
  as	
  
Graco’s	
  products	
  continue	
  to	
  provide	
  
environmentally	
  friendly	
  solutions	
  to	
  
specific	
  manufacturing	
  challenges.	
  
Competition	
  in	
  the	
  Industry.	
  Low.	
  Graco’s	
  
entire	
  business	
  model	
  relies	
  on	
  providing	
  the	
  
best	
  product	
  with	
  the	
  highest	
  ROI	
  to	
  its	
  
customers.	
  Competition	
  is	
  fierce	
  and	
  diverse,	
  
as	
  Graco	
  has	
  a	
  number	
  of	
  competitors	
  for	
  each	
  
product.	
  As	
  long	
  as	
  Graco	
  continues	
  
commitment	
  to	
  product	
  development,	
  they	
  will	
  
continue	
  to	
  remain	
  at	
  the	
  top	
  of	
  the	
  industry.	
  
Bargaining	
  Power	
  of	
  Suppliers.	
  
Low.	
  Graco	
  is	
  a	
  company	
  that	
  
produces	
  equipment	
  that	
  is	
  subject	
  
to	
  fluctuations	
  within	
  the	
  
commodities	
  market.	
  Graco	
  is	
  a	
  
major	
  buyer	
  from	
  suppliers,	
  so	
  has	
  
weight	
  in	
  negotiations.	
  Competition	
  
in	
  the	
  industry	
  keeps	
  Graco’s	
  power	
  
limited	
  when	
  buying	
  from	
  suppliers.	
  
CFA	
  INSTITUTE	
  RESEARCH	
  CHALLENGE	
   	
   	
   	
   	
   	
   12/23/14	
  
	
  
Appendix	
  8.	
  Discounted	
  Cash	
  Flow	
  Model	
  and	
  Calculations	
  
	
  
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!"#$%&'( )*+,! -,+-! .+*! -*+*! /+*! 0+1! 0+1! 0+1!
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CFA	
  INSTITUTE	
  RESEARCH	
  CHALLENGE	
   	
   	
   	
   	
   	
   12/23/14	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
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MRP.	
  Market	
  Risk	
  Premium,	
  as	
  depicted	
  in	
  the	
  chart	
  to	
  
the	
  left,	
  is	
  a	
  blend	
  of	
  the	
  average	
  Quarter	
  over	
  Quarter	
  
returns	
  of	
  Graco	
  (and	
  competitors)	
  over	
  the	
  S&P500	
  and	
  
DJIA.	
  Our	
  final	
  number,	
  5.89%,	
  is	
  very	
  comparable	
  to	
  
Aswath	
  Damodaran	
  and	
  KPMG’s	
  numbers	
  of	
  5.21%	
  and	
  
6%,	
  but	
  our	
  calculation	
  provides	
  a	
  more	
  accurate	
  
representation	
  of	
  the	
  industrial	
  machinery	
  industry.	
  
CFA	
  INSTITUTE	
  RESEARCH	
  CHALLENGE	
   	
   	
   	
   	
   	
   12/23/14	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
!"#$%
&'(' &'(( &'(& &'() &'(*+ &'(,+ &'(-+ &'(.+ &'(/+
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Growth	
  Calculations.	
  Most	
  growth	
  calculations	
  were	
  based	
  around	
  %	
  
of	
  sales,	
  historical	
  growth	
  rates,	
  and	
  %	
  of	
  cost	
  of	
  sales.	
  Our	
  models	
  are	
  
based	
  around	
  top-­‐line	
  sales	
  growth.	
  Diluted	
  Shares	
  Outstanding	
  is	
  
placed	
  at	
  59.9,	
  per	
  management	
  commitment	
  to	
  a	
  share	
  buyback	
  
program.	
  Tax	
  rates	
  and	
  cap-­‐ex	
  are	
  placed	
  on	
  guidance	
  by	
  management	
  
statements.	
  We	
  have	
  assumed	
  a	
  conservative	
  stance	
  with	
  sales	
  growth	
  
at	
  10%,	
  8%,	
  4.5%,	
  4.5%,	
  4.5%.	
  
CFA	
  INSTITUTE	
  RESEARCH	
  CHALLENGE	
   	
   	
   	
   	
   	
   12/23/14	
  
	
  
Appendix	
  9.	
  PE	
  and	
  EPS	
  Target	
  Price	
  Model	
  
	
  
Model	
  2.	
  Our	
  model	
  revolves	
  around	
  positioning	
  Graco’s	
  PE	
  against	
  the	
  Industrial	
  Machinery	
  
and	
  Equipment	
  Industry	
  P/E.	
  Data	
  was	
  gathered	
  from	
  FactSet.	
  We	
  obtained	
  daily	
  NTM-­‐P/E	
  
ratios	
  for	
  Graco,	
  the	
  S&P500,	
  and	
  the	
  Industry.	
  
	
  
As	
  seen	
  in	
  the	
  above	
  charts,	
  we	
  originally	
  pitted	
  Graco’s	
  PE	
  against	
  the	
  S&P500’s	
  PE,	
  but	
  the	
  
results	
  were	
  inconclusive	
  as	
  correlation	
  was	
  only	
  .445.	
  Transitioning	
  over	
  to	
  the	
  Industry	
  
comparison,	
  we	
  saw	
  a	
  higher	
  correlation,	
  showing	
  .726	
  for	
  daily	
  NTM-­‐P/E	
  numbers	
  on	
  a	
  10-­‐
year	
  basis.	
  We	
  decided	
  to	
  check	
  to	
  see	
  if	
  the	
  correlation	
  was	
  stronger	
  on	
  a	
  5-­‐year	
  basis,	
  and	
  we	
  
obtained	
  a	
  correlation	
  of	
  .90.	
  	
  
	
  
On	
  a	
  5-­‐year	
  basis	
  of	
  daily	
  NTM-­‐P/E	
  values,	
  Graco	
  holds	
  a	
  20.8%	
  premium	
  P/E	
  to	
  the	
  Industry	
  
P/E.	
  Currently,	
  the	
  spread	
  between	
  Graco’s	
  P/E	
  and	
  the	
  Industry	
  P/E	
  is	
  at	
  19.1%,	
  an	
  average	
  
for	
  the	
  most	
  recent	
  month’s	
  data.	
  This	
  leads	
  us	
  to	
  conclude	
  that	
  Graco	
  will	
  return	
  to	
  20.8%	
  by	
  
FYE2015.	
  
	
  
Now,	
  we	
  need	
  to	
  obtain	
  an	
  accurate	
  estimate	
  of	
  where	
  we	
  place	
  the	
  IME	
  P/E	
  for	
  FYE2015.	
  
Current	
  NTM-­‐P/E	
  is	
  17.4	
  as	
  shown	
  by	
  the	
  chart	
  to	
  the	
  left.	
  Our	
  team	
  estimated	
  that	
  the	
  
business	
  cycle	
  projects	
  a	
  P/E	
  of	
  16.5	
  for	
  the	
  industry	
  by	
  FYE2015,	
  a	
  decrease	
  from	
  today’s	
  
value.	
  	
  
	
  
Model	
  1.	
  Taking	
  the	
  NTM-­‐PE	
  Ratio	
  
as	
  of	
  12/26/14	
  and	
  our	
  team’s	
  
projected	
  2015	
  EPS	
  of	
  3.95,	
  we	
  
come	
  up	
  with	
  a	
  target	
  price	
  of	
  
$81.80.	
  
0.0%	
  
10.0%	
  
20.0%	
  
30.0%	
  
40.0%	
  
50.0%	
  
60.0%	
  
70.0%	
  
80.0%	
  
90.0%	
  
100.0%	
  
110.0%	
  
120.0%	
  
130.0%	
  
140.0%	
  
150.0%	
  
0	
  
5	
  
10	
  
15	
  
20	
  
25	
  
30	
  
5-­‐Year	
  GGG/IME	
  With	
  %	
  Spread	
  
Spread	
  
GGG	
  
IME	
  
CFA	
  INSTITUTE	
  RESEARCH	
  CHALLENGE	
   	
   	
   	
   	
   	
   12/23/14	
  
By	
  applying	
  Graco’s	
  20.8%	
  premium	
  to	
  our	
  projected	
  industry	
  value	
  of	
  16.5,	
  we	
  come	
  out	
  with	
  a	
  target	
  price	
  of	
  78.73.	
  When	
  combined	
  with	
  our	
  first	
  
model,	
  we	
  blend	
  a	
  target	
  price	
  at	
  $80.27.	
  
	
  
Appendix	
  10.	
  Price	
  to	
  Sales	
  per	
  Share	
  Model.	
  
	
  
Model	
  Methodology.	
  Our	
  Price	
  to	
  Sales	
  per	
  Share	
  Model	
  was	
  based	
  primarily	
  on	
  historical	
  trends	
  on	
  Graco’s	
  Sales	
  per	
  Share	
  numbers	
  and	
  Price	
  to	
  Sales	
  
per	
  Share	
  values	
  in	
  comparison	
  to	
  industry	
  trading	
  competitors	
  Trading	
  competitors	
  used	
  were	
  Nordson,	
  Colfax,	
  Idex,	
  and	
  FlowServe.	
  To	
  determine	
  
sales	
  per	
  share,	
  our	
  team	
  employed	
  our	
  projected	
  shares	
  outstanding	
  of	
  59.9M	
  for	
  FY2015	
  and	
  our	
  estimated	
  sales	
  for	
  the	
  year	
  at	
  1312.0M.	
  A	
  simple	
  
division	
  projects	
  a	
  Sales	
  per	
  Share	
  value	
  of	
  21.90	
  for	
  FY2015,	
  which	
  is	
  an	
  estimate	
  that	
  fits	
  historical	
  trends.	
  Data	
  was	
  gathered	
  from	
  FactSet.	
  
	
  
After	
  obtaining	
  our	
  Sales	
  per	
  Share	
  value,	
  the	
  next	
  step	
  was	
  to	
  determine	
  the	
  Price	
  to	
  Sales	
  per	
  Share	
  ratio.	
  We	
  opted	
  to	
  use	
  FactSet	
  consensus	
  estimates	
  
of	
  4.00	
  for	
  2014E	
  and	
  3.70	
  for	
  2015E.	
  Now,	
  after	
  multiplying	
  our	
  Sales	
  per	
  Share	
  value	
  of	
  21.90	
  by	
  the	
  Price	
  to	
  Sales	
  per	
  Share	
  value	
  of	
  3.70,	
  we	
  arrive	
  at	
  
a	
  target	
  price	
  of	
  $81.04	
  for	
  FY2015.	
  
	
  
Appendix	
  11.	
  Price	
  to	
  Cash	
  Flow	
  per	
  Share	
  Model	
  
	
  
Model	
  Methodology.	
  Following	
  a	
  similar	
  method	
  as	
  our	
  Sales	
  per	
  Share	
  model,	
  we	
  determined	
  historical	
  Cash	
  Flow	
  per	
  share	
  values	
  for	
  Graco	
  and	
  
industry	
  trading	
  competitors.	
  Trading	
  competitors	
  used	
  were	
  Nordson,	
  Colfax,	
  Idex,	
  and	
  FlowServe.	
  We	
  then	
  determined	
  the	
  Price	
  to	
  Cash	
  Flow	
  per	
  
Share	
  value	
  for	
  2015E	
  and	
  a	
  simple	
  multiplication	
  led	
  us	
  to	
  a	
  target	
  price.	
  Data	
  was	
  gathered	
  from	
  FactSet.	
  
	
  
After	
  projecting	
  our	
  financial	
  statements,	
  we	
  determined	
  Cash	
  Flow	
  per	
  Share	
  to	
  be	
  4.02	
  for	
  FY2014	
  and	
  4.24	
  for	
  FY2015.	
  We	
  feel	
  that	
  these	
  are	
  
accurate	
  estimates,	
  especially	
  when	
  checked	
  against	
  FactSet	
  consensus	
  values	
  of	
  4.08	
  and	
  3.98,	
  respectively.	
  
	
  
Our	
  Price	
  to	
  Cash	
  Flow	
  per	
  Share	
  value	
  for	
  2015E	
  was	
  determined	
  based	
  on	
  historical	
  industry	
  averages	
  and	
  Graco’s	
  historical	
  averages.	
  We	
  determined	
  
a	
  Price	
  to	
  Cash	
  Flow	
  per	
  Share	
  value	
  of	
  19.14,	
  which	
  is	
  an	
  average	
  of	
  Graco’s	
  Price	
  to	
  Cash	
  Flow	
  per	
  Share	
  values	
  for	
  2010-­‐2013	
  using	
  the	
  industry	
  as	
  
guidance.	
  We	
  feel	
  that	
  this	
  is	
  an	
  accurate	
  representation	
  of	
  Graco’s	
  valuation.	
  
	
  
After	
  multiplying	
  4.24	
  (Cash	
  Flow	
  per	
  Share,	
  Bethel	
  Estimate)	
  by	
  19.14	
  (Price	
  to	
  Cash	
  Flow	
  per	
  Share,	
  Bethel	
  Estimate),	
  we	
  arrive	
  at	
  a	
  target	
  price	
  for	
  
FY2015E	
  of	
  $81.16,	
  which	
  we	
  feel	
  is	
  a	
  reasonable	
  target	
  price.	
  
	
  
Appendix	
  12.	
  Price	
  to	
  Book	
  Value	
  per	
  Share	
  Model	
  
	
  
While	
  this	
  model	
  was	
  performed	
  in	
  a	
  similar	
  manner	
  as	
  Price	
  to	
  Sales	
  and	
  Price	
  to	
  Cash	
  Flow,	
  we	
  opted	
  to	
  reject	
  this	
  model’s	
  target	
  price.	
  Price	
  to	
  Book	
  
Value	
  per	
  Share	
  is	
  best	
  used	
  for	
  financial	
  institutions,	
  and	
  we	
  determined	
  that	
  this	
  model	
  does	
  not	
  fit	
  Graco’s	
  business	
  model	
  as	
  an	
  accurate	
  valuation	
  
method.	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
CFA	
  INSTITUTE	
  RESEARCH	
  CHALLENGE	
   	
   	
   	
   	
   	
   12/23/14	
  
	
  
	
  
Appendix	
  13.	
  	
  EV	
  to	
  Sales,	
  Competitor	
  Analysis	
  
	
  
Valuation	
  methodology.	
  This	
  valuation	
  technique	
  was	
  used	
  to	
  determine	
  how	
  Graco	
  compares	
  to	
  trading	
  competitors	
  in	
  the	
  industry.	
  We	
  compared	
  
Graco’s	
  EV/Sales	
  values	
  with	
  Nordson,	
  Colfax,	
  Idex,	
  and	
  FlowServe	
  on	
  a	
  historical	
  and	
  projected	
  basis.	
  Projected	
  values	
  were	
  taken	
  from	
  FactSet	
  
consensus	
  estimates.	
  
	
  
As	
  seen	
  in	
  the	
  supplemental	
  chart,	
  it	
  is	
  clear	
  that	
  
Graco	
  has	
  a	
  premium	
  over	
  the	
  four	
  trading	
  
competitors.	
  Additionally,	
  strong	
  correlation	
  
exists	
  between	
  Graco	
  and	
  the	
  trading	
  
competitors,	
  with	
  the	
  strongest	
  correlation	
  
existing	
  between	
  Nordson,	
  Colfax,	
  and	
  Idex.	
  We	
  
used	
  this	
  correlation	
  to	
  determine	
  that	
  Nordson,	
  
Colfax,	
  and	
  Idex	
  would	
  be	
  our	
  three	
  competitors	
  
used	
  in	
  the	
  Levered	
  Beta	
  calculation	
  of	
  our	
  DCF	
  
analysis.	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
Appendix	
  14.	
  EV	
  to	
  EBITDA,	
  Competitor	
  Analysis	
  
	
  
Valuation	
  methodology.	
  This	
  valuation	
  technique	
  was	
  used	
  to	
  determine	
  how	
  Graco	
  
compares	
  to	
  trading	
  competitors	
  in	
  the	
  industry.	
  We	
  compared	
  Graco’s	
  EV	
  to	
  EBITDA	
  
values	
  with	
  Nordson,	
  Colfax,	
  Idex,	
  and	
  FlowServe	
  on	
  a	
  historical	
  and	
  projected	
  basis.	
  
Projected	
  Values	
  were	
  taken	
  from	
  FactSet	
  consensus	
  estimates.	
  	
  
	
  
As	
  seen	
  in	
  the	
  supplemental	
  chart,	
  Graco	
  has	
  a	
  premium	
  over	
  the	
  four	
  trading	
  
competitors.	
  Additionally,	
  strong	
  correlation	
  exists	
  between	
  Graco	
  and	
  two	
  
competitors,	
  Nordson	
  and	
  Idex.	
  	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  -­‐	
  	
  	
  	
  
	
  0.50	
  	
  
	
  1.00	
  	
  
	
  1.50	
  	
  
	
  2.00	
  	
  
	
  2.50	
  	
  
	
  3.00	
  	
  
	
  3.50	
  	
  
	
  4.00	
  	
  
	
  4.50	
  	
  
	
  5.00	
  	
  
EV/Sales	
  
GGG	
  
NDSN	
  
CFX	
  
IEX	
  
FLS	
  
	
  -­‐	
  	
  	
  	
  
	
  5.00	
  	
  
	
  10.00	
  	
  
	
  15.00	
  	
  
	
  20.00	
  	
  
2004	
  
2005	
  
2006	
  
2007	
  
2008	
  
2009	
  
2010	
  
2011	
  
2012	
  
2013	
  
2014E	
  
2015E	
  
EV	
  to	
  EBITDA	
  
GGG	
  
NDSN	
  
CFX	
  
IEX	
  
FLS	
  
CFA	
  INSTITUTE	
  RESEARCH	
  CHALLENGE	
   	
   	
   	
   	
   	
   12/23/14	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  Appendix	
  14.	
  The	
  Conference	
  Board	
  Economic	
  Growth	
  Projections.	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
CFA	
  INSTITUTE	
  RESEARCH	
  CHALLENGE	
   	
   	
   	
   	
   	
   12/23/14	
  
	
  
	
  
Appendix	
  15.	
  Selected	
  Economic	
  Data	
  with	
  Comparison	
  Correlations	
  to	
  Graco,	
  Inc.	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
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!"#$"%& !!'&$ #($'$$ %$#) #*&**( *!&++ %##'+ #*#)$+
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,"#$"%$ (#')$ !%'$$ *#, +*+*#) &$(#& !!'! +##(,+
#"#%"%$ *$')$ !&'$$ ,#, +*%)$& &%*(% !!'% +*%()+
%+"#%"$! &*'#$ !('$$ *)% +*&+*( &*#!( !&'+ +**$&!
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-./01.230456782/39:;3082 $',)6666666666666666666666666
78<<.9;0456782/39:;3082 $',(6666666666666666666666666
=21:/390456>981:;30826=21.? $')#6666666666666666666666666
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8#7+'&$"%1
CFA	
  INSTITUTE	
  RESEARCH	
  CHALLENGE	
   	
   	
   	
   	
   	
   12/23/14	
  
	
  
	
  
Appendix	
  17.	
  Management	
  Profiles.	
  
	
  
Name	
   Position	
   Since	
   Bio	
  
Patrick	
  J.	
  
McHale,	
  52	
  
Director,	
  President	
  and	
  Chief	
  
Executive	
  Officer	
  
1999	
   Mr.	
  McHale,	
  52,	
  is	
  President	
  and	
  Chief	
  Executive	
  Officer	
  of	
  Graco	
  Inc.,	
  a	
  position	
  he	
  has	
  held	
  since	
  June	
  2007.	
  He	
  served	
  as	
  Vice	
  
President	
  and	
  General	
  Manager,	
  Lubrication	
  Equipment	
  Division	
  of	
  Graco	
  from	
  June	
  2003	
  until	
  June	
  2007.	
  He	
  was	
  Vice	
  President,	
  
Manufacturing	
  and	
  Distribution	
  Operations	
  from	
  April	
  2001	
  until	
  June	
  2003.	
  He	
  served	
  as	
  Vice	
  President,	
  Contractor	
  Equipment	
  
Division	
  from	
  February	
  2000	
  to	
  March	
  2001.	
  Prior	
  to	
  becoming	
  Vice	
  President,	
  Lubrication	
  Equipment	
  Division	
  in	
  September	
  
1999,	
  he	
  held	
  various	
  manufacturing	
  management	
  positions	
  in	
  Minneapolis,	
  Minnesota;	
  Plymouth,	
  Michigan;	
  and	
  Sioux	
  Falls,	
  
South	
  Dakota.	
  Mr.	
  McHale	
  joined	
  the	
  Company	
  in	
  December	
  1989	
  and	
  has	
  been	
  a	
  director	
  since	
  June	
  2007.	
  
David	
  M.	
  
Lowe,	
  58	
  
Executive	
  VP,	
  Industrial	
  
Products	
  Division	
  
1996	
   David	
  M.	
  Lowe,	
  58,	
  became	
  Executive	
  Vice	
  President,	
  Industrial	
  Products	
  Division	
  in	
  April	
  2012.	
  From	
  February	
  2005	
  to	
  April	
  
2012,	
  he	
  was	
  Vice	
  President	
  and	
  General	
  Manager,	
  Industrial	
  Products	
  Division.	
  He	
  was	
  Vice	
  President	
  and	
  General	
  Manager,	
  
European	
  Operations	
  from	
  September	
  1999	
  to	
  February	
  2005.	
  Prior	
  to	
  becoming	
  Vice	
  President,	
  Lubrication	
  Equipment	
  Division	
  
in	
  December	
  1996,	
  he	
  was	
  Treasurer.	
  Mr.	
  Lowe	
  joined	
  the	
  Company	
  in	
  1995.	
  
Charles	
  L.	
  
Rescorla,	
  62	
  
VP,	
  Corporate	
  Manufacturing,	
  
Distribution	
  Operations	
  and	
  
Corporate	
  Development	
  	
  
2001	
   Charles	
  L.	
  Rescorla,	
  62,	
  was	
  elected	
  Vice	
  President,	
  Corporate	
  Manufacturing,	
  Distribution	
  Operations	
  and	
  Corporate	
  
Development	
  on	
  December	
  6,	
  2013.	
  From	
  June	
  2011	
  to	
  December	
  2013,	
  he	
  was	
  Vice	
  President,	
  Corporate	
  Manufacturing,	
  
Information	
  Systems	
  and	
  Distribution	
  Operations.	
  He	
  was	
  Vice	
  President,	
  Manufacturing,	
  Information	
  Systems	
  and	
  Distribution	
  
Operations	
  from	
  April	
  2009	
  to	
  June	
  2011.	
  He	
  served	
  as	
  Vice	
  President,	
  Manufacturing	
  and	
  Distribution	
  Operations	
  from	
  
September	
  2005	
  to	
  April	
  2009.	
  From	
  June	
  2003	
  to	
  September	
  2005,	
  he	
  was	
  Vice	
  President,	
  Manufacturing/Distribution	
  
Operations	
  and	
  Information	
  Systems.	
  From	
  April	
  2001	
  until	
  June	
  2003,	
  he	
  was	
  Vice	
  President	
  and	
  General	
  Manager,	
  
Industrial/Automotive	
  Equipment	
  Division.	
  Prior	
  to	
  April	
  2001,	
  he	
  held	
  various	
  positions	
  in	
  manufacturing	
  and	
  engineering	
  
management.	
  Mr.	
  Rescorla	
  joined	
  the	
  Company	
  in	
  1988.	
  
James	
  A.	
  
Graner	
  
CFO	
   2005	
   James	
  A.	
  Graner,	
  69,	
  became	
  Chief	
  Financial	
  Officer	
  in	
  September	
  2005,	
  a	
  position	
  he	
  held	
  in	
  conjunction	
  with	
  Treasurer	
  from	
  
September	
  2005	
  to	
  June	
  2011.	
  He	
  served	
  as	
  Vice	
  President	
  and	
  Controller	
  from	
  March	
  1994	
  to	
  September	
  2005.	
  He	
  was	
  
Treasurer	
  from	
  May	
  1993	
  through	
  February	
  1994.	
  Prior	
  to	
  becoming	
  Treasurer,	
  he	
  held	
  various	
  managerial	
  positions	
  in	
  the	
  
treasury,	
  accounting	
  and	
  information	
  systems	
  departments.	
  He	
  joined	
  the	
  Company	
  in	
  1974.	
  On	
  September	
  19,	
  2014,	
  James	
  A.	
  
Graner	
  announced	
  his	
  intention	
  to	
  retire	
  from	
  his	
  position	
  as	
  the	
  Company's	
  Chief	
  Financial	
  Officer.	
  Mr.	
  Graner's	
  retirement	
  will	
  
become	
  effective	
  in	
  August	
  2015.	
  
Dale	
  D.	
  
Johnson,	
  59	
  
VP	
  and	
  GM,	
  Contractor	
  Division	
   1996	
   Dale	
  D.	
  Johnson,	
  59,	
  became	
  Vice	
  President	
  and	
  General	
  Manager,	
  Contractor	
  Equipment	
  Division	
  in	
  April	
  2001.	
  From	
  January	
  
2000	
  through	
  March	
  2001,	
  he	
  served	
  as	
  President	
  and	
  Chief	
  Operating	
  Officer.	
  From	
  December	
  1996	
  to	
  January	
  2000,	
  he	
  was	
  
Vice	
  President,	
  Contractor	
  Equipment	
  Division.	
  Prior	
  to	
  becoming	
  the	
  Director	
  of	
  Marketing,	
  Contractor	
  Equipment	
  Division	
  in	
  
June	
  1996,	
  he	
  held	
  various	
  marketing	
  and	
  sales	
  positions	
  in	
  the	
  Contractor	
  Equipment	
  division	
  and	
  the	
  Industrial	
  Equipment	
  
division.	
  He	
  joined	
  the	
  Company	
  in	
  1976.	
  
Mark	
  W.	
  
Sheahan,	
  49	
  
VP	
  and	
  GM,	
  Applied	
  Fluid	
  
Technologies	
  Division	
  
1996	
   Mark	
  W.	
  Sheahan,	
  49,	
  became	
  Vice	
  President	
  and	
  General	
  Manager,	
  Applied	
  Fluid	
  Technologies	
  Division	
  in	
  February	
  2008.	
  He	
  
served	
  as	
  Chief	
  Administrative	
  Officer	
  from	
  September	
  2005	
  until	
  February	
  2008,	
  and	
  was	
  Vice	
  President	
  and	
  Treasurer	
  from	
  
December	
  1998	
  to	
  September	
  2005.	
  Prior	
  to	
  becoming	
  Treasurer	
  in	
  December	
  1996,	
  he	
  was	
  Manager,	
  Treasury	
  Services.	
  He	
  
joined	
  the	
  Company	
  in	
  1995.	
  
David	
  M.	
  
Ahlers,	
  	
  
VP,	
  HR	
  and	
  Corporate	
  
Commiunications	
  
2008	
   David	
  M.	
  Ahlers,	
  55,	
  became	
  Vice	
  President,	
  Human	
  Resources	
  and	
  Corporate	
  Communications	
  in	
  April	
  2010.	
  From	
  September	
  
2008	
  through	
  March	
  2010,	
  he	
  served	
  as	
  the	
  Company's	
  Vice	
  President,	
  Human	
  Resources.	
  Prior	
  to	
  joining	
  Graco,	
  Mr.	
  Ahlers	
  held	
  
various	
  human	
  resources	
  positions,	
  including,	
  most	
  recently,	
  Chief	
  Human	
  Resources	
  Officer	
  and	
  Senior	
  Managing	
  Director	
  of	
  
GMAC	
  Residential	
  Capital,	
  from	
  August	
  2003	
  to	
  August	
  2008.	
  He	
  joined	
  the	
  Company	
  in	
  2008.	
  
Karen	
  Park	
  
Gallivan,	
  57	
  
VP,	
  General	
  Counsel	
  and	
  
Secretary	
  
2003	
   Karen	
  Park	
  Gallivan,	
  57,	
  became	
  Vice	
  President,	
  General	
  Counsel	
  and	
  Secretary	
  in	
  September	
  2005.	
  She	
  was	
  Vice	
  President,	
  
Human	
  Resources	
  from	
  January	
  2003	
  to	
  September	
  2005.	
  Prior	
  to	
  joining	
  Graco,	
  she	
  was	
  Vice	
  President	
  of	
  Human	
  Resources	
  and	
  
Communications	
  at	
  Syngenta	
  Seeds,	
  Inc.	
  from	
  January	
  1999	
  to	
  January	
  2003.	
  From	
  1988	
  through	
  January	
  1999,	
  she	
  was	
  the	
  
general	
  counsel	
  of	
  Novartis	
  Nutrition	
  Corporation.	
  Prior	
  to	
  joining	
  Novartis,	
  Ms.	
  Gallivan	
  was	
  an	
  attorney	
  with	
  the	
  law	
  firm	
  of	
  
Rider,	
  Bennett,	
  Egan	
  &	
  Arundel,	
  L.L.P.	
  She	
  joined	
  the	
  Company	
  in	
  2003	
  
Jeffrey	
  P.	
  
Johnson,	
  54	
  
VP	
  and	
  GM,	
  EMEA	
   2008	
   Jeffrey	
  P.	
  Johnson,	
  54,	
  became	
  Vice	
  President	
  and	
  General	
  Manager,	
  EMEA	
  in	
  January	
  2013.	
  From	
  February	
  2008	
  to	
  December	
  
2012	
  he	
  was	
  Vice	
  President	
  and	
  General	
  Manager,	
  Asia	
  Pacific.	
  He	
  served	
  as	
  Director	
  of	
  Sales	
  and	
  Marketing,	
  Applied	
  Fluid	
  
Technologies	
  Division,	
  from	
  June	
  2006	
  until	
  February	
  2008.	
  Prior	
  to	
  joining	
  Graco,	
  he	
  held	
  various	
  sales	
  and	
  marketing	
  positions,	
  
CFA	
  INSTITUTE	
  RESEARCH	
  CHALLENGE	
   	
   	
   	
   	
   	
   12/23/14	
  
including,	
  most	
  recently,	
  President	
  of	
  Johnson	
  Krumwiede	
  Roads,	
  a	
  full-­‐service	
  advertising	
  agency,	
  and	
  European	
  sales	
  manager	
  
at	
  General	
  Motors	
  Corp.	
  He	
  joined	
  the	
  Company	
  in	
  2006	
  
Brian	
  J.	
  
Zumbolo,	
  44	
  
VP	
  and	
  BM,	
  Lubrication	
  Division	
   2007	
   Brian	
  J.	
  Zumbolo,	
  44,	
  became	
  Vice	
  President	
  and	
  General	
  Manager,	
  Lubrication	
  Equipment	
  Division	
  in	
  August	
  2007.	
  He	
  was	
  
Director	
  of	
  Sales	
  and	
  Marketing,	
  Lubrication	
  Equipment	
  and	
  Applied	
  Fluid	
  Technologies,	
  Asia	
  Pacific,	
  from	
  November	
  2006	
  
through	
  July	
  2007.	
  From	
  February	
  2005	
  to	
  November	
  2006,	
  he	
  was	
  the	
  Director	
  of	
  Sales	
  and	
  Marketing,	
  High	
  Performance	
  
Coatings	
  and	
  Foam,	
  Applied	
  Fluid	
  Technologies	
  Division.	
  Mr.	
  Zumbolo	
  was	
  the	
  Director	
  of	
  Sales	
  and	
  Marketing,	
  Finishing	
  
Equipment	
  from	
  May	
  2004	
  to	
  February	
  2005.	
  Prior	
  to	
  May	
  2004,	
  he	
  held	
  various	
  marketing	
  positions	
  in	
  the	
  Industrial	
  
Equipment	
  division.	
  Mr.	
  Zumbolo	
  joined	
  the	
  Company	
  in	
  1999.	
  
Bernard	
  J.	
  
Moreau,	
  53	
  
VP	
  and	
  GM	
  South	
  and	
  Central	
  
America	
  
2013	
   Bernard	
  J.	
  Moreau,	
  53,	
  is	
  Vice	
  President	
  and	
  General	
  Manager,	
  South	
  and	
  Central	
  America,	
  a	
  position	
  he	
  has	
  held	
  since	
  January	
  
2013.	
  From	
  November	
  2003	
  to	
  December	
  2012,	
  he	
  was	
  Sales	
  and	
  Marketing	
  Director,	
  EMEA,	
  Industrial/Automotive	
  Equipment	
  
Division.	
  From	
  January	
  1997	
  to	
  October	
  2003,	
  he	
  was	
  Sales	
  Manager,	
  Middle	
  East,	
  Africa	
  and	
  East	
  Europe.	
  Prior	
  to	
  1997,	
  he	
  
worked	
  in	
  various	
  Graco	
  sales	
  engineering	
  and	
  sales	
  management	
  positions,	
  mainly	
  to	
  support	
  Middle	
  East,	
  Africa	
  and	
  southern	
  
Europe	
  territories.	
  He	
  joined	
  the	
  Company	
  in	
  1985.	
  
Caroline	
  M.	
  
Chambers	
  
VP,	
  Corporate	
  Controller	
  and	
  
Information	
  System	
  
2005	
   Caroline	
  M.	
  Chambers,	
  49,	
  was	
  elected	
  Vice	
  President,	
  Corporate	
  Controller	
  and	
  Information	
  Systems	
  on	
  December	
  6,	
  2013.	
  She	
  
has	
  also	
  served	
  as	
  the	
  Company's	
  principal	
  accounting	
  officer	
  since	
  September	
  2007.	
  From	
  April	
  2009	
  to	
  December	
  2013,	
  she	
  
was	
  Vice	
  President	
  and	
  Corporate	
  Controller.	
  She	
  served	
  as	
  Vice	
  President	
  and	
  Controller	
  from	
  December	
  2006	
  to	
  April	
  2009.	
  
She	
  was	
  Corporate	
  Controller	
  from	
  October	
  2005	
  to	
  December	
  2006	
  and	
  Director	
  of	
  Information	
  Systems	
  from	
  July	
  2003	
  
through	
  September	
  2005.	
  Prior	
  to	
  becoming	
  Director	
  of	
  Information	
  Systems,	
  she	
  held	
  various	
  management	
  positions	
  in	
  the	
  
internal	
  audit	
  and	
  accounting	
  departments.	
  Prior	
  to	
  joining	
  Graco,	
  Ms.	
  Chambers	
  was	
  an	
  auditor	
  with	
  Deloitte	
  &	
  Touche	
  in	
  
Minneapolis,	
  Minnesota	
  and	
  Paris,	
  France.	
  Ms.	
  Chambers	
  joined	
  the	
  Company	
  in	
  1992.	
  
Mark	
  D.	
  
Eberlein,	
  53	
  
VP	
  and	
  GM,	
  Process	
  Division	
   2013	
   Mark	
  D.	
  Eberlein,	
  53,	
  is	
  Vice	
  President	
  and	
  General	
  Manager,	
  Process	
  Division,	
  a	
  position	
  he	
  has	
  held	
  since	
  January	
  2013.	
  From	
  
November	
  2008	
  to	
  December	
  2012,	
  he	
  was	
  Director,	
  Business	
  Development,	
  Industrial	
  Products	
  Division.	
  He	
  was	
  Director,	
  
Manufacturing	
  Operations,	
  Industrial	
  Products	
  Division	
  from	
  January	
  to	
  October	
  2008.	
  From	
  2001	
  to	
  2008,	
  he	
  was	
  
Manufacturing	
  Operations	
  Manager	
  of	
  a	
  variety	
  of	
  Graco	
  business	
  divisions.	
  Prior	
  to	
  joining	
  Graco,	
  Mr.	
  Eberlein	
  worked	
  as	
  an	
  
engineer	
  at	
  Honeywell	
  and	
  at	
  Sheldahl.	
  He	
  joined	
  the	
  Company	
  in	
  1996.	
  
Peter	
  O’Shea,	
  	
   VP	
  and	
  GM,	
  Asia	
  Pacific	
   2013	
   Peter	
  J.	
  O'Shea,	
  49,	
  became	
  Vice	
  President	
  and	
  General	
  Manager,	
  Asia	
  Pacific	
  in	
  January	
  2013.	
  From	
  January	
  2012	
  until	
  December	
  
2012,	
  he	
  was	
  Director	
  of	
  Sales	
  and	
  Marketing,	
  Industrial	
  Products	
  Division,	
  and	
  from	
  2008	
  to	
  2012,	
  he	
  was	
  Director	
  of	
  Sales	
  and	
  
Marketing,	
  Industrial	
  Products	
  Division	
  and	
  Applied	
  Fluid	
  Technologies	
  Division.	
  He	
  was	
  Country	
  Manager,	
  Australia	
  -­‐	
  New	
  
Zealand	
  from	
  2005	
  to	
  2008,	
  and	
  from	
  2002	
  to	
  2005	
  he	
  served	
  as	
  Business	
  Development	
  Manager,	
  Australia	
  -­‐	
  New	
  Zealand.	
  Prior	
  
to	
  becoming	
  Business	
  Development	
  Manager,	
  Australia	
  -­‐	
  New	
  Zealand,	
  he	
  worked	
  in	
  various	
  Graco	
  sales	
  management	
  positions.	
  
Mr.	
  O'Shea	
  joined	
  the	
  Company	
  in	
  1995.	
  
Christian	
  E.	
  
Rothe,	
  40	
  
VP	
  and	
  Treasurer	
   2011	
   Christian	
  E.	
  Rothe,	
  40,	
  became	
  Vice	
  President	
  and	
  Treasurer	
  in	
  June	
  2011.	
  Prior	
  to	
  joining	
  Graco,	
  he	
  held	
  various	
  positions	
  in	
  
business	
  development,	
  accounting	
  and	
  finance,	
  including,	
  most	
  recently,	
  at	
  Gardner	
  Denver,	
  Inc.,	
  a	
  manufacturer	
  of	
  highly	
  
engineered	
  products,	
  as	
  Vice	
  President,	
  Treasurer	
  from	
  January	
  2011	
  to	
  June	
  2011,	
  Vice	
  President	
  -­‐	
  Finance,	
  Industrial	
  Products	
  
Group	
  from	
  October	
  2008	
  to	
  January	
  2011,	
  and	
  Director,	
  Strategic	
  Planning	
  and	
  Development	
  from	
  October	
  2006	
  to	
  October	
  
2008.	
  Mr.	
  Rothe	
  joined	
  the	
  Company	
  in	
  2011	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
 
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
Disclosures:	
  
Ownership	
  and	
  material	
  conflicts	
  of	
  interest:	
  
The	
  author(s),	
  or	
  a	
  member	
  of	
  their	
  household,	
  of	
  this	
  report	
  [does	
  not	
  hold]	
  a	
  financial	
  interest	
  in	
  the	
  securities	
  of	
  this	
  company.	
  
The	
  author(s),	
  or	
  a	
  member	
  of	
  their	
  household,	
  of	
  this	
  report	
  [does	
  not	
  know]	
  of	
  the	
  existence	
  of	
  any	
  conflicts	
  of	
  interest	
  that	
  might	
  bias	
  
the	
  content	
  or	
  publication	
  of	
  this	
  report.	
  	
  
Receipt	
  of	
  compensation:	
  
Compensation	
  of	
  the	
  author(s)	
  of	
  this	
  report	
  is	
  not	
  based	
  on	
  investment	
  banking	
  revenue.	
  
Position	
  as	
  a	
  officer	
  or	
  director:	
  
The	
  author(s),	
  or	
  a	
  member	
  of	
  their	
  household,	
  does	
  not	
  serve	
  as	
  an	
  officer,	
  director	
  or	
  advisory	
  board	
  member	
  of	
  the	
  subject	
  company.	
  
Market	
  making:	
  
The	
  author(s)	
  does	
  not	
  act	
  as	
  a	
  market	
  maker	
  in	
  the	
  subject	
  company’s	
  securities.	
  
Disclaimer:	
  
The	
  information	
  set	
  forth	
  herein	
  has	
  been	
  obtained	
  or	
  derived	
  from	
  sources	
  generally	
  available	
  to	
  the	
  public	
  and	
  believed	
  by	
  the	
  author(s)	
  
to	
  be	
  reliable,	
  but	
  the	
  author(s)	
  does	
  not	
  make	
  any	
  representation	
  or	
  warranty,	
  express	
  or	
  implied,	
  as	
  to	
  its	
  accuracy	
  or	
  completeness.	
  The	
  
information	
  is	
  not	
  intended	
  to	
  be	
  used	
  as	
  the	
  basis	
  of	
  any	
  investment	
  decisions	
  by	
  any	
  person	
  or	
  entity.	
  This	
  information	
  does	
  not	
  
constitute	
  investment	
  advice,	
  nor	
  is	
  it	
  an	
  offer	
  or	
  a	
  solicitation	
  of	
  an	
  offer	
  to	
  buy	
  or	
  sell	
  any	
  security.	
  This	
  report	
  should	
  not	
  be	
  considered	
  
to	
  be	
  a	
  recommendation	
  by	
  any	
  individual	
  affiliated	
  with	
  [Bethel	
  University],	
  CFA	
  Institute	
  or	
  the	
  CFA	
  Institute	
  Research	
  Challenge	
  with	
  
regard	
  to	
  this	
  company’s	
  stock.	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  

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GGG

  • 1. CFA Institute Research Challenge Hosted by CFA Society Minneapolis, Minnesota Bethel University
  • 2. CFA INSTITUTE RESEARCH CHALLENGE 12/21/14 2 Bethel University Student Research This report is published for educational purposes only by students competing in the CFA Institute Research Challenge. Date: 12/21/2014 Ticker: GGG:NYSE Coverage We initiate coverage on Graco, Inc. (GGG) with a 12-month price target of $81.50 and a HOLD recommendation. This is a 3.2% return on the current stock price as of December 21, 2014. Our price target was based on a Discounted Cash Flow Model in addition to various per share valuation methods and qualitative assessment about the macroeconomy and industry growth in the future. Solid but conservative business model. Although GGG is a strong company from many angles, management’s current approach tends to be more conservative. This increases the likelihood of a potential missed opportunity that could have driven overall growth at a higher rate. We see this as being an incredibly important potential miss, specifically in our current slow growth macroeconomic environment. Impressive share of the market not yielding significant growth. GGG has incredible margins from serving a niche market and essentially having the advantage of being able to charge a high price for their high quality products. The company does not however show signs of gaining significant market share, or significantly increasing their bottom line despite insignificant threats of new entrance to their market, low threat of substitute products, low bargaining power of customers and suppliers and low competition in the industry. A detailed Porter’s Five Forces analysis can be seen in Appendix 7 At 20.71x NTM EPS of $3.95 combined with DCF Analysis, GGG appears fully valued with little upside. At this valuation level GGG’s premium over its industry IME is at a historical high as well as right at it’s 52 week high. We do not see the company growing at a pace over projected estimates and do not see the market granting a higher multiple for GGG. Company Overview Graco, Inc. designs and manufactures equipment to move highly viscous, difficult-to- handle fluids and coatings. The company operates in three operating segments, Industrial, Contractor, and Lubrication within the Diversified Machinery Industry. Business Model/Strategic Focus. Graco has an enduring business model that has continually helped the company navigate the ever-changing global economy. This model includes four strategies for long-term growth: new product development, targeting new markets for existing technologies, geographic expansion, and key acquisitions. The CFO Jim Graner recently commented on November 6, 2014 at the CFA analyst day, “The strategies are the same today as they were ten years ago. We believe in our strategies. They have served us well and we believe will continue to serve us well.” Industry: Diversified Machinery 22.0% 23.0% 24.0% 25.0% 26.0% 27.0% 28.0% - 200.0 400.0 600.0 800.0 1,000.0 1,200.0 1,400.0 1,600.0 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E Sales and Margin Source: FactSet, Team Estimates Source: Yahoo! Finance
  • 3. CFA INSTITUTE RESEARCH CHALLENGE 12/21/14 3 Graco’s strong focus on the key business components of operational excellence, customer intimacy, and product leadership give the company a strong current and future position within the global market. Management. Graco has a strong management team with broad experience in the industry. Their consistent adherence to long-term strategies paired with their talented team has been one of the major components to which Graco can attribute its success. Graco has a culture intently focused on innovation and product quality that has been set by the management team. On our site visit, we were able to see that employee retention was strong, backed by a comment, “You are new here if you haven’t been around for ten years or more.” Detailed management overview is in Appendix 16. Patrick J. McHale, 52. President and Chief Executive Officer, a position he has held since June 2007. James A. Graner, 69. Chief Financial Officer, a position he has held in conjunction with Treasurer from September 2005 to June 2011. Christian E. Rothe, 40. Vice President and Treasurer, a position he has held since June 2011. Prior to Graco, held various positions in business development and accounting and finance. Jim Graner, CFO, will be retiring in the fall of 2015. We are confident that the hiring decisions made by the company, whether external or internal, will be consistent with the strategies employed throughout the company’s history. Industry Overview and Competitive Positioning As part of the Diversified Machinery Industry, we used ratios and models comparing four main competitors with Graco’s performance: Colfax (CFX), Nordson (NDSN), Idex (IEX), and FlowServe (FLS). The company’s relatively strong financial ratios, when compared to competitors, stems from the high ROI provided to customers and the premium that Graco charges for its products. Although finding a list of trading competitors in the Diversified Machinery Industry is not difficult, comparing these companies to Graco poses a significant challenge. The diversified nature of the industry eliminates the plausibility of comparing most companies in the industry side-by-side. Graco currently offers over 60,000 SKU’s, most of which have different competitors entirely. Therefore, a ratio analysis between competitors primarily provides guidance in our projections and target price models, rather than a direct comparison. Operational Excellence. Graco has centralized manufacturing operations that have allowed the company to effectively leverage their overhead, driving their cost savings, reliability, and quality in their products. This is well exemplified by the highest profit margins of any of their competitors (see Exhibit A). They emphasize return on investment and believe in both manufacturing and engineering excellence by investing heavily in their factories as well as their R&D programs. They have a relentless focus on quality and efficiency in their factories. Their operational excellence, specifically within manufacturing, has allowed Graco the flexibility to be a rare company that has a high product mix with a low volume of sales. Even with such high quantities of units, their flexible manufacturing infrastructure, including shared components within products, allows them to quickly and efficiently transition to create a wide array of products, depending upon sales demand (Exhibit B). Source: FactSet, Team Estimates Exhibit B: Source: Graco Numbers Exhibit A. Source: FactSet
  • 4. CFA INSTITUTE RESEARCH CHALLENGE 12/21/14 4 Customer, Distributor, and Supplier Intimacy. Graco has strong relationships with material suppliers, end users, and channel partners. Their central attention is niche markets in which they can charge a premium price for their high-quality and specific products that are cost-effectively manufactured. In serving niche markets, they have a determined customer-centered approach they use in developing new products to solve new problems and continually improve existing product lines. Despite selling heavily through distribution, Graco has made sure to stay close to the end users to ensure that their products are not only the quality that they expected, but also to seek out new opportunities for future innovation. They have a distinguished sales staff that are highly trained and focused on showing their customers the high ROI they receive from investing in Graco products. For example, in their contractor segment, the sales people will travel to demonstrate products to potential customers. They allow the contractors to use the products for a period of time to prove the quality and ROI inherent in the high-quality equipment. Close relationships, such as these, allow Graco to maintain their position as a product leader in these niche markets. Product Leadership. Spending three times the amount of research and development as their competitors, Graco ensures that their products are of the highest quality and innovation (see Exhibit C, D). Their quality standards prove to be much higher as well, as the company has committed to rigorous testing 10x the regulatory standards, compared with competitors’ equipment that might break down at 2x or 3x regulatory standards. Their product development is customer-centered and “enables customers to reduce their use of labor, material and energy, improve quality and achieve environmental compliance.” They invest heavily to help cut costs for their end-users and those customers are willing to pay a premium for these solutions that help achieve a higher ROI on their own work. In addition, Graco performs quality and accuracy testing at each important juncture within the manufacturing process in order to achieve 100% product quality certification. Environmental Compliance. Graco maintains a strong commitment to environmentally friendly machinery. In their recent acquisition of QED Environmental Systems, the company has taken steps towards “environmental monitoring and remediation”. EcoQuip, another recent acquisition, “offers an eco-friendly abrasive blasting technology”. Graco also launched Diesel Exhaust Fluid dispensing solutions to facilitate clean and hygienic disposal of these fluids in garages and heavy equipment maintenance facilities. The ability for Graco to enter into and capitalize on environmentally friendly equipment will strongly facilitate growth for the company’s top-line objectives. Shareholder Value. Graco’s management maintains a strong initiative to provide maximum shareholder value. This can be seen through two avenues: Dividends and Share Buybacks. Graco strives to continuously provide a dividend at 30% of EPS (Exhibit E). This per share valuation was recently raised to $1.20 on an annual basis, matching our team’s projections. Graco has also announced aggressive commitment to reducing diluted shares outstanding under 60M with a target by the end of FY2015, done at an average rate of 10,000 shares per day. To reflect this commitment, we have employed a target common shares level of 59.9 for FY2015 valuation. Macroeconomic Outlook The domestic macroeconomy shows slow, but steady growth in the post-recession environment. We expect U.S. GDP to grow between 2-3% in 2015 (see Appendix 14-15). Graco’s annual sales performance is fairly correlated with GDP, thus we expected to see sales figures to grow minimally at 2%. After collecting and analyzing various economic indicators and indices, we have determined a correlation with Graco’s sales and stock price on a few key arenas: Oil and Mining Industries, Housing and Construction, and Industrial Indices. End Market breakdown can be seen in Exhibit F. Exhibit C: Source: Graco Numbers Exhibit D. Source: FactSet, Team Estimates Exhibit E Source: FactSet Dividend Payout Ratio Exhibit F: Source: Graco Numbers Exhibit E Source: FactSet
  • 5. CFA INSTITUTE RESEARCH CHALLENGE 12/21/14 5 The success of Graco’s Lubrication segment, and the company as a whole, is loosely tied to the success of various mining, oil, and gas indices (See Exhibit G). Paired with the company’s recent acquisition of UK-based Alco Valves Group and a potential improvement in mining and the recent boom in the oil industries, we see strong growth prospects for proportionate sales stemming from these markets. See Appendix 14-15 for complete analysis. The success of Graco’s Contractor segment is strongly tied to the success of various housing market health indicators (See Exhibit H). We forecast slow, but steady growth in the housing market based on low interest rates and relatively relaxing credit. See Appendix 14-15 for complete analysis. Our main comparison index is an industrial production index. We have used comparison trends and correlations between Graco’s valuation and the valuation of the index as guidance for our target price models. See Appendix 14-15 for complete analysis. Operating Segment Overview Graco, Inc. operates with three operating segments, Industrial, Contractor, and Lubrication. These three segments are tied to economic indicators that correlate with sales production on the segment level. Industrial. Per management comment, Graco considers the Industrial segment to be the “rockstar”, boasting roughly 59% of the company’s sales with a margin of 32.3% in FY2013. Through this segment, Graco provides products that spray protective coatings, fast-set foam insulation, sealants and adhesives, and other sanitation based fluids. Opportunity for expansion and acquisition exists primarily in the Industrial segment due to the wide array of end markets. Performance. Industrial will continue posting the strongest margin, ranging between 32- 33%. However, Industrial share of total sales will slowly taper off to about 58% of sales as the other segments gain market share, characteristic of pre-recession levels. Contractor. Contractor directs its sales toward three broad areas: paints, texture, and pavement maintenance. A primary catalyst for growth exists with the conversion of manual brush and roller techniques to spray applicators. This is the second largest segment by sales, representing 28-30% of overall sales and a margin between 20-23%. Performance. We estimate that contractor will represent 32% of sales in 2015 and will rise to 33-34% in the years following. Contractor performance is tied to movements in the industrial and construction industries and, with slow post-recession growth, we expect room for growth in the upcoming years. Margin will rest at 22.0% for 2015, as contractor performance continues to strengthen. Lubrication. Lubrication derives its sales around two main areas: industrial machinery lubrication and vehicle services. Therefore, the segment is reliant on success in the Auto and O&NG Industries. The company produces equipment that allows customers to manually and automatically apply lubrication fluids to machinery and equipment. In 2013, Lubrication represented 10% of overall sales, with a strong margin of 20.6%. Performance. Lubrication revenues will grow very slowly, due to depressed commodities prices in the mining and oil industries. Margin will remain at or above 21%, with share of sales remaining at 9.0%, reflecting little to no growth in O&NG industry. Exhibit G: Source: Bloomberg - 20.00 40.00 60.00 80.00 100.00 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 12/1/09 6/1/10 12/1/10 6/1/11 12/1/11 6/1/12 12/1/12 6/1/13 12/1/13 6/1/14 Ind. Prod. Mining GGG Monthly Price Exhibit H: Source: Bloomberg Source: FactSet, Team Estimates
  • 6. CFA INSTITUTE RESEARCH CHALLENGE 12/21/14 6 53%25% 22% 54%26% 20% 54%26% 20% 53%27% 20% Geographic Sales Blue: Americas Red: EMEA Green: Asia-Pacific 2012 2013 2014E 2015E Employee Efficiency Sales Per Employee. An important analysis to keep tabs on, we compared Graco’s employee/sales ratio for a nine year period, tracking efficiency pre- and post-recession. The results were extremely conservative, with the company clearly not gaining any material efficiencies or synergies through their employee head-count. This supports our analysis that the company has reached a maturity stage and will struggle to continue its high historical growth rates. Geographic Breakdown Graco has diversified its presence in many regions, which proves effective in avoiding economic downturns in any one country. Per management comment, the company employs local and regional sales personnel that live where they sell, promoting efficiency. In northern Africa, the market is served by salespeople from France and in certain areas of Saudi Arabia, the company serves the market with salespeople from the UK, both common practices in the industry. As the company is currently in the process of adding on-the-ground salespeople in the denoted regions, we expect growth from these markets. Americas. Graco’s production in the Americas comprises roughly 55% of overall company sales. Two-thirds of overall sales. Sales production from this region is largely tied to housing, and general economic health indicators. Growth opportunity exists with potential expansion into South America, noted by the company’s recent commitment to boosting the sales force on the continent. However, as the developed market in the United States is difficult to foster significant expansion, we see this number staying flat for the near-term. Europe, Middle East, Africa. EMEA comprises the next largest segment for Graco’s sales, at roughly 25% of sales. Europe presents opportunity in emerging markets, while Graco’s presence in the Middle East and Africa is minimal, presenting strong opportunity for expansion. We see EMEA’s share of sales increasing in FY2014 and FY2015 backed by expansion opportunity and increased volume from the Alco-Valves acquisition. Asia-Pacific. The Asia-Pacific segment is comprised mainly of China, Japan, and Australia, with surrounding islands included. This geographic segment comprises roughly 20% of Graco’s sales. The Asia-Pacific region presents the greatest room for development and future expansion. Much of the success of this region stems from productivity in China, and given the macroeconomic outlook in the country, we have taken a conservative stance on growth of sales from this region, keeping sales at 20% for FY2014 and FY2015.Source: Company Data, Team Estimates Source: The Conference Board
  • 7. CFA INSTITUTE RESEARCH CHALLENGE 12/21/14 7 China GDP Growth Outlook. China, one of the world’s largest economies, is a significant piece of Graco’s Asia-Pacific sales. The International Monetary Fund suggested, in 2014, that China projected GDP growth is between 6.5-7.0%, down from current estimates of 7.5% for 2015. Chinese economists suggest that the economy needs growth above 7.0% in order to foster job creation to support the growing population. China’s economic data can be seen in the Appendix 14. Valuation Our valuation are based on a discounted cash model, the details of which can be seen in Appendix 8. Our estimated sales CAGR from 2014 through 2018E is 6.3% paired with Net Income CAGR of 6.45%, as the company exhibits signs of a mature company – shrinking sales growth opportunity with increased margin efficiency. It must be noted that these growth rates will factor in the 2008-2009 financial crisis, representing growth rates that fall far below historical sales growth of 9%. Graco management strives for top-line sales growth of 10%, with two-thirds from organic and one-third from acquisitions. Our models estimates are more conservative, due to Graco’s current size and shaky global economic conditions in the post-financial crisis environment. Conservative Estimates. Though Graco’s management team targets top- line sales growth of 10%, our analysis suggests the company will not be able to reach these historical goals, especially given Graco’s maturity and current established markets. Sales Assumptions. In order to more accurately project sales revenues in the next five years, we have broken down sales by operating segment. Macroeconomic trends were used to draw estimated trend lines between sales growth within each segment and the level of economic activity. Industries and indicators covered include Housing, O&NG, and Mining Industries on a domestic and global basis. Details can be seen in Appendix 8. Discounted Cash Flow Analysis – $81.71. Our DCF valuation projects a 12-month target price of $81.71 based on an 8% top-line growth scenario for FY2015E. This valuation stems from an average comparing the Perpetuity Growth Method and the Exit Multiple Method to converge on a target price (Exhibit I). Our detailed model can be seen in Appendix 8. Our models are based around top-line sales growth as analyzed by forecasting revenue for the Industrial, Construction and Lubrication segments. Growth calculations for each segment were based primarily on a percentage of sales or assets. From here we projected revenue forward at a flat growth rate due primarily to a similar projected capital structure as stated by management. 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E Consolidated Geographic Americas EMEA Asia-Pacific Exhibit I. Source: Team Estimates Exhibit J. Source: Team Estimates. Exhibit K. Source: St Louis Fed
  • 8. CFA INSTITUTE RESEARCH CHALLENGE 12/21/14 8 Weighted Average Cost of Capital. WACC is based on industry competitors and market conditions in combination with Graco’s historical capital structure (Exhibit J). WACC is 5.94% based on a continual capital structure of 50% equity (9.39% cost) and 50% debt (2.49% cost). Cost of Common Equity was calculated by a peer comparison of quarterly equity return compared to a weighted average of the S&P500 Index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Levered Beta (2.70) was calculated by deriving the unlevered beta of three competitors, IDEX, Colfax, and Nordson, and determining an average consensus. The risk free rate of 1.59% is set as the 5-Year T-Bond as of 12/2/2014. Long-term growth, g, is set at 2.71%, an average of the Real Potential GDP Growth Rate factoring in 145 quarters of domestic economic data (Exhibit K). We feel this is an accurate representation due to Graco’s strong ties to economic strength. Detailed WACC components can be seen in the Appendix 8. Further Valuation Methods. Price to Earnings per Share – $80.27. Our PE analysis is a blend of two parts, as seen in Exhibit L. We believe shares warrant a premium multiple given a currently strong financial position, strong long-term growth stemming from both organic and strategic acquisitions, and the company’s ability to provide a high ROI to its end users. Using the 12/26/14 NTM-PE multiple of 20.71, we arrive at a projected target price of 81.80 for FY2015. Graco, Inc. also carries a historical P/E premium over the industry IME of about 20.8% on a 5-year timeline (Exhibit M). This number is currently below historical trends, so we believe the P/E of the company will outperform relative to the industry over the next few months to in line with historical levels. We believe the business cycle has peaked, generating an Industrial Machinery P/E at our team’s estimate of 16.50. We Graco’s P/E at 19.93, as it typically trades at a 20.8% premium above the IME P/E. This P/E of 19.93 leads to an estimated 2015 stock price of $78.73. A blend of the two target prices reaches $80.27. Price to Sales per Share – $81.04. Price to Sales per Share was calculated using assumptions about the company’s historical sales per share and price to sales per share ratios. Graco clearly carries a premium over competitors in the Sales per Share ratio, as seen in Exhibit N. Details can be seen in Appendix 10. Price to Cash Flow per Share - $81.73. Price to Cash Flow per Share was calculated using assumptions about the company’s historical Cash Flow per Share and Price to Cash Flow per Share trends. The premium on Price to Sales per Share and Price to Cash Flow per Share is due to its higher margin stemming from high operational efficiencies compared to competitors. Details can be seen in the Appendix 11. -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Daily NTM PE - GGG/IME With Spread Spread GGG IME Exhibit M. Source: FactSet - 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50 5.00 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Price to Sales Per Share Over Time GGG NDSN CFX IEX FLS Exhibit N. Source: FactSet Exhibit L. Source: FactSet, Excel - 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E Industry EV/Sales (Source:Factset, Team Estimates) Exhibit O. Source: FactSet.
  • 9. CFA INSTITUTE RESEARCH CHALLENGE 12/21/14 9 EV/Sales. Historically, Graco shows a premium over our four trading competitors in this ratio. We recognize Graco’s valuation correlation with our chosen trading comps, by employing our DCF template to determine NDSN, CFX, and IEX as the closest valuation competitors in our calculation of WACC (see correlations in Exhibit O). We also recognize Graco’s valuation as the leader in the industry, confirming our PE premium of 20.8% over the industry. EV to Sales historically indicates the cost of purchasing a company’s sales. Graco’s higher EV to Sales compared to trading comps demonstrates its leadership and maturity in its industry class. Conclusion. Graco’s valuation performance is closely tied with industry competitors, noted by the tickers in Exhibits N and O. Using industry comps as guidance, we are able to place Graco in a premium position in a variety of metrics. We conclude that Graco’s current P/E premium over the Industry of 19.1% will expand to the historical level of 20.8%. However, with our negative outlook on the Industrial Machinery Index, we expect the Industry P/E to shrink from its current level of 17.4 to about 16.5 by FY2015 (Exhibit P). Graco will remain the leader in the industry, but will experience P/E tightening with the industry. Investment Summary We are initiating coverage of Graco, Inc. (GGG) with a HOLD rating and a target price of $81.50 for FY2015. This offers a 3.2% return over the current stock price as of December 21, 2014. Our valuation is derived from a blending of our target price models, and weighting our target price evenly with our Discounted Cash Flow Model. Graco, Inc. will continue to outperform the industry and peers due to its competitive positioning, long-term growth tactics, and product excellence. The company’s management effectively employs a long-term strategy, which centers on steady growth. Through both organic and inorganic growth we expect Graco to grow at a top- line CAGR of 6.3% for the period ’14-’18E based on conservative estimates and historic top-line sales growth forecasts. Although the company is highly profitable with an effective leadership team, we see Graco as a mature company that will require a riskier change in strategy to achieve maximum potential upside. A tangible example of this can be seen in the allocation of dollars from the sale of the Liquid Finishing business in 2015. The company has publically stated they will repay debt with these proceeds. This will ultimately decrease their leverage, which affirms our conservative estimates. In support of our target price and hold recommendation, we see Graco, Inc. as a financially strong, mature company that will outperform peers for years to come. In both the short and long run, the company will need to increase their tolerance of risk to drive higher levels of growth in order to maintain their goals of top-line growth at 10%. Financial Analysis In this section, we will outline the assumptions made in our analysis. Full financial statements can be seen in the Appendix 1- 5 and we determine sales CAGR from 2010-2018 to be 9.13%, with EBIT CAGR at 12.89%. Our assumptions are fairly consistent when compared to Graco’s management expectations of 10% top-line growth and 12% bottom line growth 5-Year GGG Price w/ Daily Volume Exhibit P. Source: FactSet, Team Estimates
  • 10. CFA INSTITUTE RESEARCH CHALLENGE 12/21/14 10 Top-Line Sales Approach Criticism. Our valuation models are heavily based on top-line sales growth estimates. Therefore, with our models contingent on accurate projections, we determined that a sensitivity analysis was appropriate to stress test our sales growth assumptions. This analysis can be seen below. We converged on a historical sales growth rate of 8% for FY15, reflecting moderate economic growth in global markets. Scenarios in which sales growth falls above and below 8% were rejected due to our team’s consensus opinions on global economic health. We feel that 10% growth is unobtainable for Graco based on two reasons: 1) Their capital structure is too conservative, and 2) Economic markets have not fully recovered, post-Recession. Stable Growth in Earnings. For Graco, FY2014 looks to be another year of standard top- and bottom-line growth. Continuation of steady growth in earnings through FY2015 and beyond rests on the heels of two primary drivers. First, we must remain bullish on the market through 2015, especially given Graco’s correlation with overall market movements as a major member of the Industrial Machinery industry. Second, as stated by the company directly, “we will continue to do what we always do, slow and steady growth.” However, in the dynamic, post-recession market, these long-term tactics may not be enough for Graco to continue to post its historical 10% growth rate goals. Margin Analysis. Graco has historically exhibited higher margins when compared to peers, specifically profit and operating margins over the past 5 years, by 15%. This stems from the premium charged for the company’s products. We feel that these margins may receive pressure from shrinking top-line growth and the general state of maturity reached by the company, but will continue to remain relatively high when compared to peers. Ratio and margin analysis can be seen in Exhibit Q. Allocation of Cash Proceeds. Graco is in a unique position in which the company will have access to roughly $800M in debt-based capital to expend on the company through credit lines, uncharacteristic of the cash-light company. Per management guidance, we see a few potential avenues for cash expenditure: 1. Continued, or expanded share buyback program through FY2015 and potentially FY2016 2. Increased dividend payout – Note the increase to $1.20/share in 2014, an average growth rate of ~8.5% 3. Strategic Acquisitions of a medium to smaller magnitude (<$250M) due to FTC regulation 4. Further increase R&D expenditure dominance, potentially 5+% of sales 5. Further exploration into the recovering O&NG market, boosting sales share to 10% from current 6% Profitability – DuPont Analysis. Graco exhibits a high five-year average return on equity of 39% coming from a high quantity, low volume mix which yields relatively high net income margins and asset turnover (1.12 5yr avg). Our forecasts indicates an estimated drop in ROE to 35-36% primarily due to a lower net income margin and asset turnover caused by the maturation of the company. Details can be seen in Exhibit R below. Conclusion. Our analysis aligns with our investment summary; Graco is a highly stable and profitable company with an enduring business model that will enable the company to succeed for years to come. We do not see overwhelming indications in our analysis that push us to see Graco outperforming conservative profitability or growth estimates. Exhibit Q. Source: FactSet, Team Estimates Exhibit R: FactSet, Team Estimates
  • 11. CFA INSTITUTE RESEARCH CHALLENGE 12/21/14 11 Investment Risks and Opportunities Divesture of Liquid Finishing Business. In Accordance with FTC regulations, Graco has agreed to divest its interest in the Liquid Finishing business of a 2012 acquisition from Illinois Tool Works. The announced sale of this business to Carlisle Company will realize an estimated $570M in cash. Speculation and uncertainty exists as to Graco’s use of this cash in the upcoming business year. Graco management has announced a commitment to paying down roughly $300M of their current repayable debt from a revolving credit line. We believe the company will reissue this debt at a cheaper rate, keeping their capital structure at 50% equity, 50% debt, a structure consistent with historical trends. Future Acquisition Strategy. Uncertainty arises in Graco’s acquisition strategy for the future. With the recent FTC order to divest the Liquid Finishing business, we conclude that Graco will have an inability to pursue acquisitions of high magnitude in the future. We believe the company will keep acquisitions at middle levels, between $100-250M. We believe these acquisitions will generally represent new expansionary industries, or industries in which Graco’s current presence is non-dominant. However, Graco’s maturity and size will limit growth opportunity in the future, both organically and inorganically. Growth Opportunities Expansion into South America and Africa. Graco management has labeled expansion as a key to growth. Graco has the opportunity to capture new markets, especially within developing and emerging economies. Oil and Natural Gas Industry. With its recent acquisition of UK-based Alco Valves Group, Graco is positioned to strengthen its presence in the O&NG Industry. O&NG currently accounts for 6% of the company’s business, and we see this expanding as the industry recovers on the back of rising commodity prices in the future. End-User Conversion. Graco continues to pursue opportunities through the conversion of manual brush and roller paint techniques to spray applicators. Results have been disappointing, but strong upside exists if Graco can capture the development in emerging economies and smaller cities. Product Development and Research. Graco maintains a commitment to product excellence backed by consistently keeping R&D expense at 4.5-5.0% of sales. In addition, through the hiring of top employees with new ideas in the engineering and development areas, Graco can continue to produce the best products in the industry. Margins are reliant on continued adherence to these guidelines. Threats to Growth Sluggish housing market in the United States. Contractor sales, through home center stores, are tied with the US housing market. Strict home-mortgage requirements in the post-recession environment places pressure on sustained growth. See Appendix 15 for details. Acquisition opportunity. Graco needs to continuously acquire new companies and segments in order to stay viable atop the industry as the quality product leader. Their recent acquisition and dissolution of ITW’s Liquid Finishing Business projects uncertainties in the company’s ability to acquire reasonably viable businesses in the future. Geopolitical tension in China. With direct business in China and Hong Kong, Graco is susceptible to the political turmoil that has been developing. Slow growth and potential recession in Europe. While our models are based on the assumption that Europe avoids recession, we have factored in sensitivity analyses to show what the company’s business could look like in an economic downturn. Discontinuation of the R&D Tax Credit. A potential discontinuation would adversely affect the company’s R&D expenditure. This would force a business model revamp as Graco’s competitive advantage is centered around new, high quality products.
  • 12. CFA  INSTITUTE  RESEARCH  CHALLENGE             12/23/14   Appendix  1.  Income  Statement          
  • 13. CFA  INSTITUTE  RESEARCH  CHALLENGE             12/23/14   Appendix  2.  Balance  Sheet              
  • 14. CFA  INSTITUTE  RESEARCH  CHALLENGE             12/23/14   Appendix  3.  Statement  of  Cash  Flows                
  • 15. CFA  INSTITUTE  RESEARCH  CHALLENGE             12/23/14   Appendix  4.  Common-­‐Size  Income  Statement                                
  • 16. CFA  INSTITUTE  RESEARCH  CHALLENGE             12/23/14     Appendix  5.  Common  Size  Balance  Sheet              
  • 17. CFA  INSTITUTE  RESEARCH  CHALLENGE             12/23/14     Appendix  6.  Selected  Graco-­‐Constructed  Charts.  Source:  2013  Presentation                                                                    
  • 18. CFA  INSTITUTE  RESEARCH  CHALLENGE             12/23/14     Appendix  7.  Porter’s  Five  Forces                                                                     Threat  of  New  Entrants.  Insignificant.  Graco,   and  its  competitors,  have  a  dominant  presence  in   the  market.  The  products  provided  are  expensive   to  produce,  industry  customer  relationships  are   strong,  and  business  models  have  long-­‐term   focus.  Smaller  companies  will  be  absorbed  by   larger  companies.   Threat  of  Substitute  Products.   Low.  Graco  maintains   commitment  to  providing  the   most  expensive  product  that   provides  the  highest  ROI  for   end-­‐users.  Graco  has  strong   customer  relationships,  but   until  the  customer  switches  to  a   Graco  product,  they  will  remain   with  the  cheaper  products.   Bargaining  Power  of  Customers.  Low.   Similar  to  substitutes,  Graco  has  the   highest  quality  product  on  the  market,  but   also  charges  the  highest  price.  Customers   are  willing  to  pay  the  premium  as  long  as   Graco’s  products  continue  to  provide   environmentally  friendly  solutions  to   specific  manufacturing  challenges.   Competition  in  the  Industry.  Low.  Graco’s   entire  business  model  relies  on  providing  the   best  product  with  the  highest  ROI  to  its   customers.  Competition  is  fierce  and  diverse,   as  Graco  has  a  number  of  competitors  for  each   product.  As  long  as  Graco  continues   commitment  to  product  development,  they  will   continue  to  remain  at  the  top  of  the  industry.   Bargaining  Power  of  Suppliers.   Low.  Graco  is  a  company  that   produces  equipment  that  is  subject   to  fluctuations  within  the   commodities  market.  Graco  is  a   major  buyer  from  suppliers,  so  has   weight  in  negotiations.  Competition   in  the  industry  keeps  Graco’s  power   limited  when  buying  from  suppliers.  
  • 19. CFA  INSTITUTE  RESEARCH  CHALLENGE             12/23/14     Appendix  8.  Discounted  Cash  Flow  Model  and  Calculations     !"#$%&'()$ *+,$%-)./0'1#,2'34%5'6)#47,+, 3+,$#4'8/#"'9)0/0'*/$/:;/"'<=&'>?=< @+,.%"+$#4 A"%B/$./0 >?=? >?== >?=> >?=< >?=C >?=D >?=E >?=F >?=G H=<'I'H=G'16!J K/.'J/L/)-/ FCCM''''''''''''''''''''''' GNDM''''''''''''''''''''''' =&?=<M''''''''''''''''''' =&=?CM''''''''''''''''''' =&>=CM''''''''''''''''''' =&<=>M''''''''''''''''''' =&<F=M''''''''''''''''''' =&C<>M''''''''''''''''''' =&CNFM''''''''''''''''''' EO<P !"#$%&'( )*+,! -,+-! .+*! -*+*! /+*! 0+1! 0+1! 0+1! !"#$%"&%'()*# +,-./%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% +,0,/%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% +12,/%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% +134/%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% +3-3/%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% +310/%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% +3.-/%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% +340/%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% +02,/%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% !"%,,'A"%Q+. 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  • 20. CFA  INSTITUTE  RESEARCH  CHALLENGE             12/23/14                                                                        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 Market  Risk  Premium,  as  depicted  in  the  chart  to   the  left,  is  a  blend  of  the  average  Quarter  over  Quarter   returns  of  Graco  (and  competitors)  over  the  S&P500  and   DJIA.  Our  final  number,  5.89%,  is  very  comparable  to   Aswath  Damodaran  and  KPMG’s  numbers  of  5.21%  and   6%,  but  our  calculation  provides  a  more  accurate   representation  of  the  industrial  machinery  industry.  
  • 21. CFA  INSTITUTE  RESEARCH  CHALLENGE             12/23/14             !"#$% &'(' &'(( &'(& &'() &'(*+ &'(,+ &'(-+ &'(.+ &'(/+ !"#$%&'(&) *++)&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& ,-.)&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& /01/2)&&&&&&&&&&&&& /0/1+)&&&&&&&&&&&&& /03/+)&&&&&&&&&&&&& /02/3)&&&&&&&&&&&&& /02*/)&&&&&&&&&&&&& /0+23)&&&&&&&&&&&&& /0+-*)&&&&&&&&&&&&& 456789&6:&!"#$%&'(&; 1<11; 31<23; /2<1-; -<1+; /1<11; ,<11; +<.1; +<.1; +<.1; &'(' &'(( &'(& &'() &'(*+ &'(,+ &'(-+ &'(.+ &'(/+ =6%8&'(&) >21*?&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& >2@2?&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& >+32?&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& >+.-?&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& >.1.?&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& >.+@?&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& >.*1?&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& >.-@?&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& >@32?&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& 456789&;&6:&=6%8 1<11; /,<3@; /@<*/; ,<.2; -<--; ,<11; +<.1; +<.1; +<.1; =6%8&"%&"&;&6:&!"#$% +/<31; +1<.1; +/<,1; +/<@1; +/<@1; +/<@1; +/<@1; +/<@1; +/<@1; &'(' &'(( &'(& &'() &'(*+ &'(,+ &'(-+ &'(.+ &'(/+ 456%%&A56:'8 +2,&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& .22&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& .,-&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& @+.&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& *1-&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& *@@&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& ,11&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& ,2@&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& ,*+&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& 456789&6:&)&'(&; 1<11; 3/<*@; /1<@2; -<+1; /1<1/; ,<11; +<.1; +<.1; +<.1; 456%%&A56:'8&; .,<,1; .-<.1; .,<31; .,<+1; .,<+1; .,<+1; .,<+1; .,<+1; .,<+1; B(C>D$C?&456789&6:&; 1; /<31; E3</,; 1<22; 1<1/; 1<11; 1<11; 1<11; 1<11; &'(' &'(( &'(& &'() &'(*+ &'(,+ &'(-+ &'(.+ &'(/+ 456%%&A56:'8 +1+&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& .11&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& ../&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& @1*&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& @@-&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& *3@&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& *@1&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& *-@&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& ,2+&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& 456789&6:&)&'(&; 1<11; 32<-/; /1<1@; /1<23; /1</,; ,<+,; +<*.; +<*+; +<*2; 456%%&A56:'8&; .+<3.; ..<,*; .+<2*; ..<13; ..<//; ..<2.; ..<+,; ..<@/; ..<*2; B(C>D$C?&456789&6:&; 1; 3<-,; E3<@,; /</,; 1</@; 1<++; 1<3+; 1<32; 1<33; &'(' &'(( &'(& &'() &'(*+ &'(,+ &'(-+ &'(.+ &'(/+ !4FG&'(&) >3/2?&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& >32-?&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& >3@/?&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& >3*+?&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& >3-/?&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& >2/.?&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& >23-?&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& >2++?&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& >2.-?&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& 456789&'(&; 1; /3; -; .; @; ,; +; .; .; G%&"&;&6:&=6%8 @-<2+; @.<-+; @/<@.; .-<*3; .*<@-; .*<@-; .*<@-; .*<@-; .*<@-; G%&"&;&6:&!"#$% 3,<.*; 3@<*/; 3.<**; 3+<,.; 3+<11; 3+<11; 3+<11; 3+<11; 3+<11; 012 &'(' &'(( &'(& &'() &'(*+ &'(,+ &'(-+ &'(.+ &'(/+ HFD&'(&) >2,?&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& >+3?&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& >+-?&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& >./?&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& >.,?&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& >@3?&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& >@.?&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& >@,?&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& >*/?&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& 456789&'(&; 1<11; /1<3/; /*<*+; .</2; /3</@; ,<11; +<.1; +<.1; +<.1; G%&"&;&6:&=6%8 /3<21; //<+@; //<.@; //<31; //<+3; //<+3; //<+3; //<+3; //<+3; G%&"&;&6:&!"#$% .<1*; +<@+; +<,2; +<@@; +<*.; +<*.; +<*.; +<*.; +<*.; 2$34$56"7689 BIJ&K$$L'(M&89'%&:#"8&"8&>32?&N$C"O%$&P$L5$C'"8'6(&'%&6(#Q&L"'5$P&7'89&L56L$58Q0&"(P&B&9"R$&(68&L5$P'C8$P&:O589$5&$SL"(%'6(< &'(' &'(( &'(& &'() &'(*+ &'(,+ &'(-+ &'(.+ &'(/+ >33?&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& >33?&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& >33?&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& >32?&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& >3+?&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& >3+?&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& >3+?&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& >3+?&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& >3+?&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& :;8476<"7689 T9'%&9"%&"&#'88#$&J65$&J$"('(M&N$C"O%$&'8&C6O#P&'(C#OP$&L"8$(8%&65&689$5&'(8"(M'N#$%<&B&9"R$&:"C865$P&'(&%6J$&M56789< &'(' &'(( &'(& &'() &'(*+ &'(,+ &'(-+ &'(.+ &'(/+ >/3?&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& >//?&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& >/*?&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& >/+?&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& >/@?&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& >/@?&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& >/@?&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& >/@?&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& >/@?&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& 456789&6:&GJ658'U"8'6( 1<11; E*<@2; ./<-2; E/.<-+; /+<-+; 1<11; 1<11; 1<11; 1<11; +=>? T9'%&'%&89$&:'("#&VWBT&#'(K$P&7'89&"##&89$&!"#$%&"(P&VSL$(%$%&"N6R$ &'(' &'(( &'(& &'() &'(*+ &'(,+ &'(-+ &'(.+ &'(/+ /.2&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& 331&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& 3+/&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& 3,3&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& 231&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& 2+-&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& 2@@&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& 2,.&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& +1+&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& ?"@A+@3$9%$ &'(' &'(( &'(& &'() &'(*+ &'(,+ &'(-+ &'(.+ &'(/+ )&X"#O$&6:&T"S >+@?&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& >@*?&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& >@,?&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& >*,?&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& >-2?&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& >//3?&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& >/31?&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& >/3*?&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& >/2+?&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& T"S&H"8$ 3-<,.; 21<*/; 3,<22; 3*<@,; 3-<11; 23<11; 23<11; 23<11; 23<11; B48C7DAE"#5F#"7689% E8%7A8GA!"#$%AE"#5F#"7689%A+@5#FH69IA21: B48%%AJ48G67A+@5#FH69IA21: !B1:A B48%%AJ48G67A"9HAK"4I69ALAM8##8C69IA>N! Growth  Calculations.  Most  growth  calculations  were  based  around  %   of  sales,  historical  growth  rates,  and  %  of  cost  of  sales.  Our  models  are   based  around  top-­‐line  sales  growth.  Diluted  Shares  Outstanding  is   placed  at  59.9,  per  management  commitment  to  a  share  buyback   program.  Tax  rates  and  cap-­‐ex  are  placed  on  guidance  by  management   statements.  We  have  assumed  a  conservative  stance  with  sales  growth   at  10%,  8%,  4.5%,  4.5%,  4.5%.  
  • 22. CFA  INSTITUTE  RESEARCH  CHALLENGE             12/23/14     Appendix  9.  PE  and  EPS  Target  Price  Model     Model  2.  Our  model  revolves  around  positioning  Graco’s  PE  against  the  Industrial  Machinery   and  Equipment  Industry  P/E.  Data  was  gathered  from  FactSet.  We  obtained  daily  NTM-­‐P/E   ratios  for  Graco,  the  S&P500,  and  the  Industry.     As  seen  in  the  above  charts,  we  originally  pitted  Graco’s  PE  against  the  S&P500’s  PE,  but  the   results  were  inconclusive  as  correlation  was  only  .445.  Transitioning  over  to  the  Industry   comparison,  we  saw  a  higher  correlation,  showing  .726  for  daily  NTM-­‐P/E  numbers  on  a  10-­‐ year  basis.  We  decided  to  check  to  see  if  the  correlation  was  stronger  on  a  5-­‐year  basis,  and  we   obtained  a  correlation  of  .90.       On  a  5-­‐year  basis  of  daily  NTM-­‐P/E  values,  Graco  holds  a  20.8%  premium  P/E  to  the  Industry   P/E.  Currently,  the  spread  between  Graco’s  P/E  and  the  Industry  P/E  is  at  19.1%,  an  average   for  the  most  recent  month’s  data.  This  leads  us  to  conclude  that  Graco  will  return  to  20.8%  by   FYE2015.     Now,  we  need  to  obtain  an  accurate  estimate  of  where  we  place  the  IME  P/E  for  FYE2015.   Current  NTM-­‐P/E  is  17.4  as  shown  by  the  chart  to  the  left.  Our  team  estimated  that  the   business  cycle  projects  a  P/E  of  16.5  for  the  industry  by  FYE2015,  a  decrease  from  today’s   value.       Model  1.  Taking  the  NTM-­‐PE  Ratio   as  of  12/26/14  and  our  team’s   projected  2015  EPS  of  3.95,  we   come  up  with  a  target  price  of   $81.80.   0.0%   10.0%   20.0%   30.0%   40.0%   50.0%   60.0%   70.0%   80.0%   90.0%   100.0%   110.0%   120.0%   130.0%   140.0%   150.0%   0   5   10   15   20   25   30   5-­‐Year  GGG/IME  With  %  Spread   Spread   GGG   IME  
  • 23. CFA  INSTITUTE  RESEARCH  CHALLENGE             12/23/14   By  applying  Graco’s  20.8%  premium  to  our  projected  industry  value  of  16.5,  we  come  out  with  a  target  price  of  78.73.  When  combined  with  our  first   model,  we  blend  a  target  price  at  $80.27.     Appendix  10.  Price  to  Sales  per  Share  Model.     Model  Methodology.  Our  Price  to  Sales  per  Share  Model  was  based  primarily  on  historical  trends  on  Graco’s  Sales  per  Share  numbers  and  Price  to  Sales   per  Share  values  in  comparison  to  industry  trading  competitors  Trading  competitors  used  were  Nordson,  Colfax,  Idex,  and  FlowServe.  To  determine   sales  per  share,  our  team  employed  our  projected  shares  outstanding  of  59.9M  for  FY2015  and  our  estimated  sales  for  the  year  at  1312.0M.  A  simple   division  projects  a  Sales  per  Share  value  of  21.90  for  FY2015,  which  is  an  estimate  that  fits  historical  trends.  Data  was  gathered  from  FactSet.     After  obtaining  our  Sales  per  Share  value,  the  next  step  was  to  determine  the  Price  to  Sales  per  Share  ratio.  We  opted  to  use  FactSet  consensus  estimates   of  4.00  for  2014E  and  3.70  for  2015E.  Now,  after  multiplying  our  Sales  per  Share  value  of  21.90  by  the  Price  to  Sales  per  Share  value  of  3.70,  we  arrive  at   a  target  price  of  $81.04  for  FY2015.     Appendix  11.  Price  to  Cash  Flow  per  Share  Model     Model  Methodology.  Following  a  similar  method  as  our  Sales  per  Share  model,  we  determined  historical  Cash  Flow  per  share  values  for  Graco  and   industry  trading  competitors.  Trading  competitors  used  were  Nordson,  Colfax,  Idex,  and  FlowServe.  We  then  determined  the  Price  to  Cash  Flow  per   Share  value  for  2015E  and  a  simple  multiplication  led  us  to  a  target  price.  Data  was  gathered  from  FactSet.     After  projecting  our  financial  statements,  we  determined  Cash  Flow  per  Share  to  be  4.02  for  FY2014  and  4.24  for  FY2015.  We  feel  that  these  are   accurate  estimates,  especially  when  checked  against  FactSet  consensus  values  of  4.08  and  3.98,  respectively.     Our  Price  to  Cash  Flow  per  Share  value  for  2015E  was  determined  based  on  historical  industry  averages  and  Graco’s  historical  averages.  We  determined   a  Price  to  Cash  Flow  per  Share  value  of  19.14,  which  is  an  average  of  Graco’s  Price  to  Cash  Flow  per  Share  values  for  2010-­‐2013  using  the  industry  as   guidance.  We  feel  that  this  is  an  accurate  representation  of  Graco’s  valuation.     After  multiplying  4.24  (Cash  Flow  per  Share,  Bethel  Estimate)  by  19.14  (Price  to  Cash  Flow  per  Share,  Bethel  Estimate),  we  arrive  at  a  target  price  for   FY2015E  of  $81.16,  which  we  feel  is  a  reasonable  target  price.     Appendix  12.  Price  to  Book  Value  per  Share  Model     While  this  model  was  performed  in  a  similar  manner  as  Price  to  Sales  and  Price  to  Cash  Flow,  we  opted  to  reject  this  model’s  target  price.  Price  to  Book   Value  per  Share  is  best  used  for  financial  institutions,  and  we  determined  that  this  model  does  not  fit  Graco’s  business  model  as  an  accurate  valuation   method.            
  • 24. CFA  INSTITUTE  RESEARCH  CHALLENGE             12/23/14       Appendix  13.    EV  to  Sales,  Competitor  Analysis     Valuation  methodology.  This  valuation  technique  was  used  to  determine  how  Graco  compares  to  trading  competitors  in  the  industry.  We  compared   Graco’s  EV/Sales  values  with  Nordson,  Colfax,  Idex,  and  FlowServe  on  a  historical  and  projected  basis.  Projected  values  were  taken  from  FactSet   consensus  estimates.     As  seen  in  the  supplemental  chart,  it  is  clear  that   Graco  has  a  premium  over  the  four  trading   competitors.  Additionally,  strong  correlation   exists  between  Graco  and  the  trading   competitors,  with  the  strongest  correlation   existing  between  Nordson,  Colfax,  and  Idex.  We   used  this  correlation  to  determine  that  Nordson,   Colfax,  and  Idex  would  be  our  three  competitors   used  in  the  Levered  Beta  calculation  of  our  DCF   analysis.                   Appendix  14.  EV  to  EBITDA,  Competitor  Analysis     Valuation  methodology.  This  valuation  technique  was  used  to  determine  how  Graco   compares  to  trading  competitors  in  the  industry.  We  compared  Graco’s  EV  to  EBITDA   values  with  Nordson,  Colfax,  Idex,  and  FlowServe  on  a  historical  and  projected  basis.   Projected  Values  were  taken  from  FactSet  consensus  estimates.       As  seen  in  the  supplemental  chart,  Graco  has  a  premium  over  the  four  trading   competitors.  Additionally,  strong  correlation  exists  between  Graco  and  two   competitors,  Nordson  and  Idex.                -­‐          0.50      1.00      1.50      2.00      2.50      3.00      3.50      4.00      4.50      5.00     EV/Sales   GGG   NDSN   CFX   IEX   FLS    -­‐          5.00      10.00      15.00      20.00     2004   2005   2006   2007   2008   2009   2010   2011   2012   2013   2014E   2015E   EV  to  EBITDA   GGG   NDSN   CFX   IEX   FLS  
  • 25. CFA  INSTITUTE  RESEARCH  CHALLENGE             12/23/14        Appendix  14.  The  Conference  Board  Economic  Growth  Projections.                                                                    
  • 26. CFA  INSTITUTE  RESEARCH  CHALLENGE             12/23/14       Appendix  15.  Selected  Economic  Data  with  Comparison  Correlations  to  Graco,  Inc.                                                                  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
  • 27. CFA  INSTITUTE  RESEARCH  CHALLENGE             12/23/14       Appendix  17.  Management  Profiles.     Name   Position   Since   Bio   Patrick  J.   McHale,  52   Director,  President  and  Chief   Executive  Officer   1999   Mr.  McHale,  52,  is  President  and  Chief  Executive  Officer  of  Graco  Inc.,  a  position  he  has  held  since  June  2007.  He  served  as  Vice   President  and  General  Manager,  Lubrication  Equipment  Division  of  Graco  from  June  2003  until  June  2007.  He  was  Vice  President,   Manufacturing  and  Distribution  Operations  from  April  2001  until  June  2003.  He  served  as  Vice  President,  Contractor  Equipment   Division  from  February  2000  to  March  2001.  Prior  to  becoming  Vice  President,  Lubrication  Equipment  Division  in  September   1999,  he  held  various  manufacturing  management  positions  in  Minneapolis,  Minnesota;  Plymouth,  Michigan;  and  Sioux  Falls,   South  Dakota.  Mr.  McHale  joined  the  Company  in  December  1989  and  has  been  a  director  since  June  2007.   David  M.   Lowe,  58   Executive  VP,  Industrial   Products  Division   1996   David  M.  Lowe,  58,  became  Executive  Vice  President,  Industrial  Products  Division  in  April  2012.  From  February  2005  to  April   2012,  he  was  Vice  President  and  General  Manager,  Industrial  Products  Division.  He  was  Vice  President  and  General  Manager,   European  Operations  from  September  1999  to  February  2005.  Prior  to  becoming  Vice  President,  Lubrication  Equipment  Division   in  December  1996,  he  was  Treasurer.  Mr.  Lowe  joined  the  Company  in  1995.   Charles  L.   Rescorla,  62   VP,  Corporate  Manufacturing,   Distribution  Operations  and   Corporate  Development     2001   Charles  L.  Rescorla,  62,  was  elected  Vice  President,  Corporate  Manufacturing,  Distribution  Operations  and  Corporate   Development  on  December  6,  2013.  From  June  2011  to  December  2013,  he  was  Vice  President,  Corporate  Manufacturing,   Information  Systems  and  Distribution  Operations.  He  was  Vice  President,  Manufacturing,  Information  Systems  and  Distribution   Operations  from  April  2009  to  June  2011.  He  served  as  Vice  President,  Manufacturing  and  Distribution  Operations  from   September  2005  to  April  2009.  From  June  2003  to  September  2005,  he  was  Vice  President,  Manufacturing/Distribution   Operations  and  Information  Systems.  From  April  2001  until  June  2003,  he  was  Vice  President  and  General  Manager,   Industrial/Automotive  Equipment  Division.  Prior  to  April  2001,  he  held  various  positions  in  manufacturing  and  engineering   management.  Mr.  Rescorla  joined  the  Company  in  1988.   James  A.   Graner   CFO   2005   James  A.  Graner,  69,  became  Chief  Financial  Officer  in  September  2005,  a  position  he  held  in  conjunction  with  Treasurer  from   September  2005  to  June  2011.  He  served  as  Vice  President  and  Controller  from  March  1994  to  September  2005.  He  was   Treasurer  from  May  1993  through  February  1994.  Prior  to  becoming  Treasurer,  he  held  various  managerial  positions  in  the   treasury,  accounting  and  information  systems  departments.  He  joined  the  Company  in  1974.  On  September  19,  2014,  James  A.   Graner  announced  his  intention  to  retire  from  his  position  as  the  Company's  Chief  Financial  Officer.  Mr.  Graner's  retirement  will   become  effective  in  August  2015.   Dale  D.   Johnson,  59   VP  and  GM,  Contractor  Division   1996   Dale  D.  Johnson,  59,  became  Vice  President  and  General  Manager,  Contractor  Equipment  Division  in  April  2001.  From  January   2000  through  March  2001,  he  served  as  President  and  Chief  Operating  Officer.  From  December  1996  to  January  2000,  he  was   Vice  President,  Contractor  Equipment  Division.  Prior  to  becoming  the  Director  of  Marketing,  Contractor  Equipment  Division  in   June  1996,  he  held  various  marketing  and  sales  positions  in  the  Contractor  Equipment  division  and  the  Industrial  Equipment   division.  He  joined  the  Company  in  1976.   Mark  W.   Sheahan,  49   VP  and  GM,  Applied  Fluid   Technologies  Division   1996   Mark  W.  Sheahan,  49,  became  Vice  President  and  General  Manager,  Applied  Fluid  Technologies  Division  in  February  2008.  He   served  as  Chief  Administrative  Officer  from  September  2005  until  February  2008,  and  was  Vice  President  and  Treasurer  from   December  1998  to  September  2005.  Prior  to  becoming  Treasurer  in  December  1996,  he  was  Manager,  Treasury  Services.  He   joined  the  Company  in  1995.   David  M.   Ahlers,     VP,  HR  and  Corporate   Commiunications   2008   David  M.  Ahlers,  55,  became  Vice  President,  Human  Resources  and  Corporate  Communications  in  April  2010.  From  September   2008  through  March  2010,  he  served  as  the  Company's  Vice  President,  Human  Resources.  Prior  to  joining  Graco,  Mr.  Ahlers  held   various  human  resources  positions,  including,  most  recently,  Chief  Human  Resources  Officer  and  Senior  Managing  Director  of   GMAC  Residential  Capital,  from  August  2003  to  August  2008.  He  joined  the  Company  in  2008.   Karen  Park   Gallivan,  57   VP,  General  Counsel  and   Secretary   2003   Karen  Park  Gallivan,  57,  became  Vice  President,  General  Counsel  and  Secretary  in  September  2005.  She  was  Vice  President,   Human  Resources  from  January  2003  to  September  2005.  Prior  to  joining  Graco,  she  was  Vice  President  of  Human  Resources  and   Communications  at  Syngenta  Seeds,  Inc.  from  January  1999  to  January  2003.  From  1988  through  January  1999,  she  was  the   general  counsel  of  Novartis  Nutrition  Corporation.  Prior  to  joining  Novartis,  Ms.  Gallivan  was  an  attorney  with  the  law  firm  of   Rider,  Bennett,  Egan  &  Arundel,  L.L.P.  She  joined  the  Company  in  2003   Jeffrey  P.   Johnson,  54   VP  and  GM,  EMEA   2008   Jeffrey  P.  Johnson,  54,  became  Vice  President  and  General  Manager,  EMEA  in  January  2013.  From  February  2008  to  December   2012  he  was  Vice  President  and  General  Manager,  Asia  Pacific.  He  served  as  Director  of  Sales  and  Marketing,  Applied  Fluid   Technologies  Division,  from  June  2006  until  February  2008.  Prior  to  joining  Graco,  he  held  various  sales  and  marketing  positions,  
  • 28. CFA  INSTITUTE  RESEARCH  CHALLENGE             12/23/14   including,  most  recently,  President  of  Johnson  Krumwiede  Roads,  a  full-­‐service  advertising  agency,  and  European  sales  manager   at  General  Motors  Corp.  He  joined  the  Company  in  2006   Brian  J.   Zumbolo,  44   VP  and  BM,  Lubrication  Division   2007   Brian  J.  Zumbolo,  44,  became  Vice  President  and  General  Manager,  Lubrication  Equipment  Division  in  August  2007.  He  was   Director  of  Sales  and  Marketing,  Lubrication  Equipment  and  Applied  Fluid  Technologies,  Asia  Pacific,  from  November  2006   through  July  2007.  From  February  2005  to  November  2006,  he  was  the  Director  of  Sales  and  Marketing,  High  Performance   Coatings  and  Foam,  Applied  Fluid  Technologies  Division.  Mr.  Zumbolo  was  the  Director  of  Sales  and  Marketing,  Finishing   Equipment  from  May  2004  to  February  2005.  Prior  to  May  2004,  he  held  various  marketing  positions  in  the  Industrial   Equipment  division.  Mr.  Zumbolo  joined  the  Company  in  1999.   Bernard  J.   Moreau,  53   VP  and  GM  South  and  Central   America   2013   Bernard  J.  Moreau,  53,  is  Vice  President  and  General  Manager,  South  and  Central  America,  a  position  he  has  held  since  January   2013.  From  November  2003  to  December  2012,  he  was  Sales  and  Marketing  Director,  EMEA,  Industrial/Automotive  Equipment   Division.  From  January  1997  to  October  2003,  he  was  Sales  Manager,  Middle  East,  Africa  and  East  Europe.  Prior  to  1997,  he   worked  in  various  Graco  sales  engineering  and  sales  management  positions,  mainly  to  support  Middle  East,  Africa  and  southern   Europe  territories.  He  joined  the  Company  in  1985.   Caroline  M.   Chambers   VP,  Corporate  Controller  and   Information  System   2005   Caroline  M.  Chambers,  49,  was  elected  Vice  President,  Corporate  Controller  and  Information  Systems  on  December  6,  2013.  She   has  also  served  as  the  Company's  principal  accounting  officer  since  September  2007.  From  April  2009  to  December  2013,  she   was  Vice  President  and  Corporate  Controller.  She  served  as  Vice  President  and  Controller  from  December  2006  to  April  2009.   She  was  Corporate  Controller  from  October  2005  to  December  2006  and  Director  of  Information  Systems  from  July  2003   through  September  2005.  Prior  to  becoming  Director  of  Information  Systems,  she  held  various  management  positions  in  the   internal  audit  and  accounting  departments.  Prior  to  joining  Graco,  Ms.  Chambers  was  an  auditor  with  Deloitte  &  Touche  in   Minneapolis,  Minnesota  and  Paris,  France.  Ms.  Chambers  joined  the  Company  in  1992.   Mark  D.   Eberlein,  53   VP  and  GM,  Process  Division   2013   Mark  D.  Eberlein,  53,  is  Vice  President  and  General  Manager,  Process  Division,  a  position  he  has  held  since  January  2013.  From   November  2008  to  December  2012,  he  was  Director,  Business  Development,  Industrial  Products  Division.  He  was  Director,   Manufacturing  Operations,  Industrial  Products  Division  from  January  to  October  2008.  From  2001  to  2008,  he  was   Manufacturing  Operations  Manager  of  a  variety  of  Graco  business  divisions.  Prior  to  joining  Graco,  Mr.  Eberlein  worked  as  an   engineer  at  Honeywell  and  at  Sheldahl.  He  joined  the  Company  in  1996.   Peter  O’Shea,     VP  and  GM,  Asia  Pacific   2013   Peter  J.  O'Shea,  49,  became  Vice  President  and  General  Manager,  Asia  Pacific  in  January  2013.  From  January  2012  until  December   2012,  he  was  Director  of  Sales  and  Marketing,  Industrial  Products  Division,  and  from  2008  to  2012,  he  was  Director  of  Sales  and   Marketing,  Industrial  Products  Division  and  Applied  Fluid  Technologies  Division.  He  was  Country  Manager,  Australia  -­‐  New   Zealand  from  2005  to  2008,  and  from  2002  to  2005  he  served  as  Business  Development  Manager,  Australia  -­‐  New  Zealand.  Prior   to  becoming  Business  Development  Manager,  Australia  -­‐  New  Zealand,  he  worked  in  various  Graco  sales  management  positions.   Mr.  O'Shea  joined  the  Company  in  1995.   Christian  E.   Rothe,  40   VP  and  Treasurer   2011   Christian  E.  Rothe,  40,  became  Vice  President  and  Treasurer  in  June  2011.  Prior  to  joining  Graco,  he  held  various  positions  in   business  development,  accounting  and  finance,  including,  most  recently,  at  Gardner  Denver,  Inc.,  a  manufacturer  of  highly   engineered  products,  as  Vice  President,  Treasurer  from  January  2011  to  June  2011,  Vice  President  -­‐  Finance,  Industrial  Products   Group  from  October  2008  to  January  2011,  and  Director,  Strategic  Planning  and  Development  from  October  2006  to  October   2008.  Mr.  Rothe  joined  the  Company  in  2011        
  • 29.                                   Disclosures:   Ownership  and  material  conflicts  of  interest:   The  author(s),  or  a  member  of  their  household,  of  this  report  [does  not  hold]  a  financial  interest  in  the  securities  of  this  company.   The  author(s),  or  a  member  of  their  household,  of  this  report  [does  not  know]  of  the  existence  of  any  conflicts  of  interest  that  might  bias   the  content  or  publication  of  this  report.     Receipt  of  compensation:   Compensation  of  the  author(s)  of  this  report  is  not  based  on  investment  banking  revenue.   Position  as  a  officer  or  director:   The  author(s),  or  a  member  of  their  household,  does  not  serve  as  an  officer,  director  or  advisory  board  member  of  the  subject  company.   Market  making:   The  author(s)  does  not  act  as  a  market  maker  in  the  subject  company’s  securities.   Disclaimer:   The  information  set  forth  herein  has  been  obtained  or  derived  from  sources  generally  available  to  the  public  and  believed  by  the  author(s)   to  be  reliable,  but  the  author(s)  does  not  make  any  representation  or  warranty,  express  or  implied,  as  to  its  accuracy  or  completeness.  The   information  is  not  intended  to  be  used  as  the  basis  of  any  investment  decisions  by  any  person  or  entity.  This  information  does  not   constitute  investment  advice,  nor  is  it  an  offer  or  a  solicitation  of  an  offer  to  buy  or  sell  any  security.  This  report  should  not  be  considered   to  be  a  recommendation  by  any  individual  affiliated  with  [Bethel  University],  CFA  Institute  or  the  CFA  Institute  Research  Challenge  with   regard  to  this  company’s  stock.