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The Global Aging
Preparedness Index
           GAPINDEX.CSIS.ORG

               Richard Jackson
Center for Strategic and International Studies

              October 14, 2010
                  London
The world stands on the threshold of a
stunning demographic transformation. It’s
called global aging and it promises to affect
every dimension of social and economic life.
Perhaps most fatefully, it could call into
question the ability of societies to maintain
a decent standard of living for the old
without imposing a crushing burden on the
young.
Elderly (Aged 60 and Over), as a Percent of the Population in 2007 and 2040

   India          7.2
                           15.6                                      Canada                    18.6
                                                                                                                 31.5
   Brazil          9.3
                                       22.2             2007          France                        21.6
                                                                                                                 31.6
 Mexico            8.7                                                                             20.2
                                       22.3             2040      Netherlands                                    32.2
   Chile                 12.2                                                                       22.2
                                         25.0                     Switzerland                                    32.7

     US                         17.2                                                          17.9
                                         25.4                         Poland                                       33.5

  China                 11.3                                                                        21.9
                                              27.9                     Spain                                            37.9

     UK                            21.8                                                     14.2
                                              27.9                     Korea                                              38.6

Australia                       18.3                                Germany                               25.3
                                              28.5                                                                        39.0

 Russia                         17.3                                     Italy                            25.7
                                               28.8                                                                        39.9

Sweden                                  24.0                           Japan                                28.1
                                               29.6                                                                            43.3

            0%   10%        20%           30%         40%   50%                  0%   10%    20%          30%        40%          50%
The GAP Index
                                                   GAP Index Countries

   The GAP Index provides a unique new                 Australia
    quantitative assessment of the progress that          Brazil
    countries worldwide are making in preparing         Canada
    for the global aging challenge.                       Chile
                                                         China
                                                         France
   The GAP Index projections extend through            Germany
    the year 2040 in order to capture the full            India
    impact of the demographic transformation               Italy
    now sweeping the world.                              Japan
                                                         Korea
                                                         Mexico
   The GAP Index covers twenty                        Netherlands
    countries, including both developed                  Poland
    economies and emerging markets.                      Russia
                                                          Spain
                                                        Sweden
   The GAP Index consists of two subindices—
                                                       Switzerland
    the fiscal sustainability index and the
                                                            UK
    income adequacy index.                                  US
GAP FISCAL
                                         SUSTAINABILITY INDEX


       PUBLIC BURDEN                            FISCAL ROOM CATEGORY                                BENEFIT DEPENDENCE
         CATEGORY                                Measures each country’s ability                        CATEGORY
  Measures the magnitude of                      to accommodate the growth in                      Measures how dependent the
 each country’s projected public                  its public old-age dependency                    elderly in each country are on
  old-age dependency burden                      burden by raising taxes, cutting                  public benefits—and thus how
                                                   other spending, or borrowing                    politically difficult it may be to
                                                                                                       reduce those benefits




 BENEFIT              BENEFIT       TAX ROOM                BUDGET             BORROWING          BENEFIT                BENEFIT
  LEVEL               GROWTH        INDICATOR                ROOM                 ROOM             SHARE                   CUT
INDICATOR            INDICATOR           Total            INDICATOR             INDICATOR        INDICATOR              INDICATOR
 Total public       The growth in   Government             Total public         The net public    Total public             The % of
 benefits to         total public    revenue in             benefits to        debt in 2040 as   benefits as a              elderly
the elderly in        benefits to   2040 as a %           the elderly in            a % of        % of elderly           households
2040 as a %           the elderly          of             2040 as a %          GDP, assumin        income:              that would be
   of GDP           from 2007 to    GDP, assumi                  of              g borrowing      Average for            pushed into
                    2040 as a %     ng taxes are           government            pays for all    2007 to 2040            poverty by a
                        of GDP      raised to pay         outlays, assu           growth in                               10% cut in
                                    for all growth         ming cuts in        public benefits                              public
                                       in public               other                                                      benefits in
                                       benefits           spending pay                                                   2007 or the
                                                          for all growth                                                 most recent
                                                             in public                                                  available year
                                                             benefits
Public Burden Category
Benefit Level Indicator


     Total Public Benefits to the Elderly, as a Percent of GDP, 2007–2040

                            2007      2020       2030      2040                                    2007   2020   2030   2040

     1 India                  1.9        3.1       4.2        3.6         11 Switzerland            9.8   12.6   15.7   17.4

     2 Mexico                 2.4        3.2       3.9        5.1         12 UK                    12.1   14.0   16.4   18.2

     3 Chile                  6.0        6.8       7.0        7.5         13 Japan                 14.1   15.4   15.9   18.4

     4 China                  2.8        4.6       6.1        8.0         14 Sweden                15.7   16.6   18.1   19.2

     5 Russia                 5.8        7.5       8.7      10.2          15 Brazil                 8.8   12.5   16.3   20.4

     6 Poland                10.1      12.0      13.1       13.9          16 Germany               15.8   17.3   20.0   21.7

     7 Korea                  3.4        7.5      11.0      14.1          17 Netherlands           12.0   15.7   20.0   23.2

     8 Canada                 8.3      10.9      13.2       14.7          18 France                16.6   19.4   21.8   23.5

     9 Australia              8.9      10.7      12.9       14.9          19 Italy                 18.0   19.9   22.3   24.7

     10 US                    8.9      12.5      15.1       16.3          20 Spain                 14.3   17.0   20.6   26.1

     Note: Countries are ranked from best to worst according to the projection results for 2040.
Public Burden Category
Benefit Growth Indicator

                 Growth in Total Public Benefits to the Elderly from 2007 to
                 2040, as a Percent of GDP

       Chile           1.5                                                  UK               6.1

       India           1.6                                             Canada                6.4

     Mexico                  2.7                                           Italy              6.6

     Sweden                    3.5                                      France                 6.8

     Poland                        3.8                                      US                     7.4

      Japan                         4.3                             Switzerland                    7.6

     Russia                         4.4                                  Korea                                 10.7

      China                              5.2                        Netherlands                                 11.2

    Germany                                5.9                           Brazil                                  11.6

    Australia                              6.0                           Spain                                    11.8

                0%                 5%            10%          15%                  0%   5%               10%             15%

                 Note: Countries are ranked from best to worst.
Fiscal Room Category
Tax Room Indicator

     Total Government Revenue as a Percent of GDP, Assuming Taxes Are Raised to
     Pay for All Growth in Public Benefits, 2007–2040*

                           2007       2020      2030       2040                                  2007      2020      2030       2040

     1 India                23.5       23.8      25.1      24.2          11 Korea                33.3       36.4      39.4       42.3

     2 Mexico               22.6       22.9      23.4      24.4          12 Canada               40.7       41.5      43.5       45.0

     3 Chile                29.5       26.4      26.4      26.9          13 UK                   41.4       43.2      45.4       47.4

     4 China                21.7       23.9      25.2      27.2          14 Brazil               34.8       39.6      43.5       47.4

     5 Japan                33.5       33.7      34.0      36.2          15 Germany              43.9       43.9      45.8       47.5

     6 Poland               40.3       39.4      39.8      40.4          16 Spain                41.1       42.4      45.6       50.3

     7 Russia               40.0       38.0      38.9      40.5          17 Italy                46.4       47.7      49.5       51.4

     8 Switzerland          33.9       35.9      38.8      40.6          18 Netherlands          45.7       47.8      51.5       54.7

     9 Australia            35.7       36.6      38.7      40.6          19 France               49.6       52.4      54.6       56.3

     10 US                  34.0       37.6      40.3      41.7          20 Sweden               56.3       55.1      56.3       57.4

     Note: Countries are ranked from best to worst according to the projection results for 2040.
     * The projections assume that, beginning in 2015, each country moves to a debt-neutral fiscal balance in its ―rest of government‖
     budget.
Fiscal Room Category
Budget Room Indicator

      Total Public Benefits to the Elderly as a Percent of Government Outlays in 2007
      and 2040, Assuming Cuts in Other Spending Pay for All Growth in Public Benefits*

        India         6.7                                                            US                  24.2
                            12.5                                                                                        44.1

     Mexico             10.2                                                     France                        31.8
                                   21.2                         2007                                                    44.9

      Russia                  17.3                                                Korea          12.0
                                      27.9                      2040                                                     46.4

        Chile                             29.2                                 Germany                           36.3
                                           30.9                                                                            48.8

      Poland                        24.0                                     Netherlands                  26.3
                                            33.3                                                                           50.1

    Sweden                                29.9                                      Italy                         37.7
                                             35.5                                                                           51.0

    Canada                         21.2                                           Japan                             39.2
                                             36.3                                                                           51.0

       China                12.6                                             Switzerland                     30.4
                                             36.3                                                                              52.6

          UK                          27.4                                        Brazil                23.8
                                                  41.2                                                                          55.6

    Australia                        26.0                                         Spain                          36.4
                                                   42.5                                                                                64.0

                0%          20%             40%           60%          80%                  0%    20%           40%            60%            80%
    Note: Countries are ranked from best to worst according to the projection results for 2040.
    * The projections assume that, beginning in 2015, each country moves to a debt-neutral fiscal balance in its ―rest of government‖ budget.
Fiscal Room Category
Borrowing Room Indicator

     Net Public Debt as a Percent of GDP, Assuming that Borrowing Pays for All
     Growth in Public Benefits, 2007–2040*

                           2007       2020      2030       2040                                  2007      2020      2030       2040

     1 Chile               -13.7      -14.5     -26.0      -31.1         11 India†               78.3       84.6      80.0     108.0

     2 Sweden              -25.0      -12.9     -14.1      17.8          12 Germany              42.9       54.7      56.7     127.2

     3 Russia                 0.0       1.6       -6.2     32.0          13 Japan                80.4     104.6      114.9     133.6

     4 China                  1.7      -1.5       -1.1     39.0          14 France               34.0       60.7      73.5     149.2

     5 Mexico               31.4       44.4      43.0      66.8          15 UK                   28.8       58.3      76.9     152.6

     6 Poland               17.0       32.4      41.7      70.1          16 Italy                87.1     100.8      103.6     168.2

     7 Australia             -6.6      -1.1        1.3     73.9          17 Netherlands          28.0       36.5      41.3     169.1

     8 Korea               -35.8      -33.4     -36.8      87.4          18 Spain                18.7       41.6      49.2     175.1

     9 Switzerland           11.0       9.3        5.8     98.9          19 Brazil               42.0       37.3      37.2     175.2

     10 Canada              23.1       32.6      32.7     104.8          20 US                   42.3       65.0      76.2     179.0

     Note: Countries are ranked from best to worst according to the projection results for 2040.
     * The projections assume that, beginning in 2015, each country moves to a debt-neutral fiscal balance in its ―rest of government‖
     budget.
     † Data for India refer to gross debt.
Benefit Dependence Category
Benefit Share Indicator

   Public Benefits, as a Percent of Elderly Income, 2007–2040

                                                            Average                                                       Average
                         2007 2020 2030 2040                                                  2007 2020 2030 2040
                                                            2007-40                                                       2007-40

   1   Mexico             25.3    26.6     26.0    26.5       27.1          11 Netherlands 49.6      48.9   49.6   51.6    49.8

   2   Chile              34.8    30.6     26.9    26.3       30.8          12 China          48.0   52.5   51.0   54.8    52.1

   3   India              27.4    32.2     34.5    26.5       31.6          13 Sweden         53.6   52.6   51.2   52.8    52.5

   4   US                 35.1    37.2     38.8    40.3       38.1          14 UK             51.5   52.5   52.2   55.1    52.8

   5   Australia          43.1    39.5     40.3    41.2       40.5          15 Russia         57.4   55.9   57.4   54.9    56.5

   6   Korea              29.9    40.9     44.0    45.9       41.3          16 Italy          60.5   58.1   55.8   55.9    57.6

   7   Japan              46.9    44.5     42.2    42.6       43.9          17 Brazil         64.2   62.6   62.3   62.2    62.8

   8   Canada             43.8    43.3     44.8    46.0       44.2          18 Spain          63.1   63.3   63.0   64.2    64.0

   9   Switzerland        41.5    43.6     44.9    47.1       44.3          19 France         66.7   65.8   66.2   67.4    66.3

   10 Germany             54.5    47.8     45.2    47.1       48.4          20 Poland         77.1   68.6   63.0   56.7    66.8

   Note: Countries are ranked from best to worst according to the average for 2007 to 2040.
Benefit Dependence Category
Benefit Cut Indicator

                Percent of Elderly Households That Would Be Pushed into Poverty
                Today by a 10 Percent Cut in Public Benefits*

      India         0.1                                                      Italy                   3.3

     Mexico          0.6                                                   Spain                           4.1

     Korea            0.7                                                 Russia                             4.6

      Brazil              1.2                                           Sweden                                   5.1

      China               1.2                                            Canada                                  5.3

     Poland                     2.2                                           UK                                       5.8

      Chile                     2.3                                     Australia                                      5.9

     France                       2.8                                  Germany                                          6.2

     Japan                            2.9                           Switzerland                                         6.3

        US                            3.0                           Netherlands                                                7.7

               0%          2%          4%   6%    8%       10%                       0%    2%        4%          6%           8%     10%
                Note: Countries are ranked from best to worst.
                * Data refer to various years between 1999 and 2007 and exclude public health benefits. Poor households are
                households with incomes beneath 50 percent of the median income for all households.
GAP INCOME
                                                 ADEQUACY INDEX


       TOTAL INCOME                                 INCOME VULNERABILITY                                  FAMILY SUPPORT
         CATEGORY                                        CATEGORY                                           CATEGORY
  Measures the overall level of                    Measures income adequacy for                      Measures the strength of family
  and trend in the income of the                    ―middle class‖ elders and the                      support networks in each
 elderly relative to the nonelderly                extent of elderly poverty in each                            country
          in each country                                       country




   TOTAL                 TOTAL           MEDIAN               MEDIAN                POVERTY          FAMILY               FAMILY
  INCOME                INCOME           INCOME               INCOME                 LEVEL            TIES                 SIZE
   LEVEL                 TREND            LEVEL                TREND               INDICATOR       INDICATOR            INDICATOR
INDICATOR             INDICATOR        INDICATOR            INDICATOR              The % of the     The % of the         The change
 The ratio of             The %         The ratio of            The %               elderly with    elderly living          in the
average after-        change in the    median after-        change in the            incomes       in households           average
tax elderly to            ratio of     tax elderly to          ratio of           beneath 50%         with their          number of
  nonelderly          average after-    nonelderly          median after-         of the median    adult children          surviving
  income in           tax elderly to     income in          tax elderly to        income for all       in 2007            children of
2040, includin          nonelderly     2040, excludi         nonelderly             persons in                            the elderly
   g public            income from        ng public         income from            2007 or the                          from 2007 to
    health                2007 to          health              2007 to             most recent                               2040
   benefits           2040, includin      benefits          2040, excludi         available year
                          g public                            ng public
                           health                               health
                         benefits                              benefits
Total Income Category
Total Income Level Indicator

     Ratio of Average After-Tax Elderly to Nonelderly Income, Including Public Health
     Benefits, 2007–2040

                          2007      2020     2030      2040                               2007     2020   2030   2040

     1 Netherlands         1.29     1.37      1.52      1.72        11 Japan               1.19    1.12   1.11   1.12

     2 US                  1.43     1.54      1.62      1.67        12 Spain               1.00    1.06   1.05   1.06

     3 Brazil              1.33     1.40      1.47      1.54        13 Italy               1.12    1.12   1.09   1.04

     4 Germany             1.31     1.43      1.48      1.48        14 Switzerland         0.86    0.87   0.88   0.89

     5 Chile               1.41     1.45      1.39      1.38        15 Mexico              0.94    0.88   0.85   0.82

     6 Sweden              1.26     1.21      1.27      1.28        16 Korea               0.81    0.82   0.79   0.79

     7 Australia           1.04     1.09      1.14      1.20        17 India               0.78    0.83   0.85   0.78

     8 UK                  1.05     1.08      1.14      1.19        18 Poland              0.75    0.70   0.76   0.74

     9 Canada              1.13      1.11     1.11      1.14        19 Russia              0.68    0.65   0.65   0.71

     10 France             1.16     1.09      1.10      1.13        20 China               0.52    0.53   0.50   0.51

     Note: Countries are ranked from best to worst according to the projection results for 2040.
Total Income Category
Total Income Trend Indicator

              Percent Change in the Ratio of Average After-Tax Elderly to Nonelderly
              Income from 2007 to 2040, Including Public Health Benefits

     Netherlands                                             32.9
                                                                     Canada                      0.7

             US                                  17.0                  India                 0.5

           Brazil                                15.9                Poland          -1.2

        Australia                               15.7                  China         -1.8

             UK                                13.4                    Chile        -2.2

       Germany                                 13.0                   Korea         -2.9

           Spain                         5.7                         France         -3.1

         Russia                         3.9                           Japan     -5.6

     Switzerland                        3.8                            Italy    -6.6

        Sweden                        1.8                            Mexico -12.7

                -20% -10% 0%            10% 20% 30% 40%                    -20% -10%        0%     10% 20% 30% 40%

                    Note: Countries are ranked from best to worst.
Income Vulnerability Category
Median Income Level Indicator

     Ratio of Median After-Tax Elderly to Nonelderly Income, Excluding Public Health
     Benefits, 2007–2040*

                             2007       2020       2030       2040                                    2007       2020   2030   2040

     1 Brazil                 1.23       1.24       1.26       1.30          11 Italy                     1.02   0.99   0.94   0.87

     2 Netherlands            1.00       1.02       1.13       1.27          12 Canada                    0.91   0.87   0.85   0.81

     3 US                     1.16       1.22       1.27       1.26          13 France                    0.89   0.78   0.76   0.75

     4 Germany                1.05       1.04       1.04       1.04          14 Poland                    0.80   0.71   0.77   0.72

     5 Chile                  1.11       1.11       1.02       0.99          15 Switzerland               0.73   0.71   0.71   0.71

     6 Japan                  1.11       1.00       0.95       0.96          16 India                     0.76   0.78   0.78   0.71

     7 Sweden                 0.94       0.92       0.94       0.94          17 Russia                    0.64   0.59   0.58   0.61

     8 Australia              0.89       0.85       0.88       0.93          18 Mexico                    0.72   0.64   0.60   0.56

     9 Spain                  0.93       0.95       0.93       0.93          19 Korea                     0.59   0.57   0.53   0.52

     10 UK                    0.88       0.88       0.90       0.93          20 China                     0.39   0.38   0.35   0.34

     Note: Countries are ranked from best to worst according to the projection results for 2040.
     * Data for both the elderly and nonelderly refer to the third quintile of the income distribution.
Income Vulnerability Category
Median Income Trend Indicator

               Percent Change in the Ratio of Median After-Tax Elderly to Nonelderly
               Income from 2007 to 2040, Excluding Public Health Benefits*

    Netherlands                                                 27.7
                                                                                  India                   -6.9

            US                                      8.8                        Poland                    -9.4

          Brazil                                  5.5                         Canada                 -10.2

            UK                                    5.3                             Chile              -10.8

       Australia                               4.6                               China              -12.1

          Spain                             0.1                                 Korea               -13.2

       Sweden                       -0.8                                        Japan             -14.2

      Germany                       -0.9                                           Italy          -14.8

    Switzerland                    -2.5                                        France            -15.9

        Russia                  -5.5                                           Mexico       -21.9

               -35% -25% -15% -5%           5% 15% 25% 35%                             -35% -25% -15% -5%           5% 15% 25% 35%

               Note: Countries are ranked from best to worst.
               * Data for both the elderly and nonelderly refer to the third quintile of the income distribution.
Income Vulnerability Category
Poverty Level Indicator

                    Percent of the Elderly Living in Poverty Today*

    Netherlands         2.3                                                Chile                     14.0

        Poland           3.7                                                 UK                        15.4

         Brazil           5.1                                         Australia                               20.9

       Sweden                 5.5                                          India                              21.8

        France                  8.1                                     Japan†                                 22.0

       Canada                       8.9                                      US                                22.4

      Germany                       9.8                                   Spain                                22.6

           Italy                     10.7                                 China                                      25.0

    Switzerland                           12.7                          Mexico                                       25.5

        Russia                             13.8                           Korea                                             36.2

                   0%         10%            20%   30%     40%                     0%       10%         20%           30%   40%

               Note: Countries are ranked from best to worst.
               * Data refer to various years between 999 and 2007 and exclude public health benefits. Poor persons are
               persons with incomes beneath 50 percent of the median income for all persons.
               † Data for Japan refer to elderly aged 65 and older.
Family Support Category
Family Ties Indicator


                    Percent of the Elderly Living in Households with Their Adult
                    Children in 2007
                                                                              Italy                      28.2
      India                                                 82.8

      China                                       64.0                    Canada                   20.5


     Mexico                                    57.3                            US                 16.9


      Chile                                   54.5                        Australia               16.2

      Brazil                               51.3                            France            10.5

     Japan                             44.0                                    UK            9.7

      Spain                            42.4                              Germany            8.4

     Russia                         39.9                               Switzerland         6.4

     Korea                         37.2                                Netherlands         5.3

     Poland                     31.6                                      Sweden           4.1

               0%      20%      40%        60%        80%       100%                  0%     20%          40%   60%   80%   100%
               Note: Countries are ranked from best to worst.
Family Support Category
Family Size Indicator


     Average Number of Surviving Children of the Elderly: 2007, 2040, and Change
     from 2007 to 2040

                                2007        2040      Change                                       2007     2040    Change

     1    Sweden                  2.1         2.0        -0.2           11 US                         1.9     1.0    -1.0

     2    Japan                   2.0         1.5        -0.5           12 Australia                  3.0     2.0    -1.0

     3    Poland                  2.6         2.0        -0.6           13 Netherlands                2.7     1.6    -1.1

     4    UK                      2.4         1.9        -0.6           14 Chile                      3.5     2.4    -1.1

     5    France                  2.5         1.9        -0.6           15 Spain                      2.7     1.4    -1.2

     6    Germany                 2.1         1.4        -0.7           16 Canada                     3.2     1.7    -1.5

     7    Switzerland             2.2         1.6        -0.7           17 China                      3.5     2.0    -1.6

     8    Russia                  2.2         1.5        -0.7           18 Brazil                     3.8     2.1    -1.7

     9    India                   3.5         2.6        -0.9           19 Korea                      3.6     1.8    -1.8

     10 Italy                     2.3         1.4        -0.9           20 Mexico                     5.0     2.6    -2.5

     Note: Countries are ranked from best to worst according to the projected change from 2007 to 2040.
GAP Index Country Rankings
Fiscal Sustainability Index   Income Adequacy Index
 1     India                   1    Netherlands
 2     Mexico                  2    Brazil
 3     Chile                   3    US
 4     China                   4    Germany
 5     Russia                  5    UK
 6     Poland                  6    Australia
 7     Australia               7    Sweden
 8     Japan                   8    Chile
 9     Canada                  9    Spain
 10    Sweden                 10    India
 11    US                     11    Canada
 12    Korea                  12    Japan
 13    Switzerland            13    Poland
 14    Germany                14    Switzerland
 15    UK                     15    Russia
 16    Italy                  16    France
 17    France                 17    Italy
 18    Brazil                 18    China
 19    Netherlands            19    Korea
 20    Spain                  20    Mexico
GAP Index Reform Strategy Guide
              1. Reduce                               4. Increase
                           2. Reduce                                5. Strengthen
              public                     3. Extend    funded                      6. Increase     7. Increase
                           health-care                              poverty
              pension                    work lives   pension                     fertility rates immigration
                           cost growth                              floors
              benefits                                savings
Australia     ★             ★★           ★                           ★★            ★
Brazil        ★★★           ★            ★             ★★                          ★             ★
Canada        ★             ★★           ★                                         ★★            ★
Chile         ★                          ★             ★             ★             ★             ★
China         ★                          ★★            ★★            ★★★           ★★            ★
France        ★★★           ★★★          ★★★           ★★★                         ★             ★
Germany       ★★★           ★★           ★★            ★★                          ★★★           ★★★
India*                                   ★★            ★★            ★★
Italy         ★★★           ★★           ★★★           ★★            ★             ★★★           ★★
Japan         ★★★           ★★                         ★★            ★★            ★★★           ★★★
Korea         ★             ★                          ★★★           ★★★           ★★★           ★★★
Mexico                                                 ★★            ★★★                         ★
Netherlands   ★★            ★★★          ★★                                        ★★            ★★
Poland        ★★★                        ★★            ★★                          ★★★           ★★
Russia        ★                          ★★            ★★            ★             ★★★           ★
Spain         ★★★           ★★           ★★★           ★★★           ★★            ★★★           ★★
Sweden        ★★            ★★           ★             ★                           ★
Switzerland   ★             ★★           ★                           ★             ★★★           ★
UK            ★             ★★           ★★            ★             ★             ★
US            ★             ★★★                        ★             ★★

Reform Guide Key: No Stars = Not a Priority ★ = Low Priority ★★ = Significant Priority ★★★= High Priority
Annex
GAP Index Reform Strategy Guide
                                                                           No Stars =                                ★★ =
                                                                                                 ★=                                     ★★★=
Reform Guide Key                                                             Not a                                 Significant
                                                                                              Low Priority                            High Priority
                                                                            Priority                                 Priority
Strategy 1: Stars refer to projected current-deal public
                                                                               < 5%               5–10%               10–15%               > 15%
pension benefits to the elderly in 2040 as a % of GDP

Strategy 2: Stars refer to projected public health
                                                                               < 4%                4–6%                6–8%                 > 8%
benefits to the elderly in 2040 as a % of GDP

Strategy 3: Stars refer to projected labor-force
                                                                              > 40%              30–40%               20–30%               < 20%
participation rate of the elderly aged 60–74 in 2040

Strategy 4: Stars refer to projected funded pension
                                                                              > 25%              15–25%               5–15%                 < 5%
benefits as a % of elderly cash income in 2040

Strategy 5: Stars refer to percent of the elderly living in
                                                                              < 10%              10–20%               20–25%               > 25%
relative poverty today

Strategy 6: Stars refer to projected total fertility rates
                                                                               > 2.0              1.8–2.0             1.5–1.8               < 1.5
for the period 2010-2040

                                                                                          moderate aging          moderate aging
                                                                                          & high                  & low
Strategy 7: Stars refer to a composite measure of net                    low aging & high                                          high aging & low
                                                                                          immigration or          immigration or
immigration rates and the degree of population aging †                   immigration
                                                                                          low aging & low         high aging &
                                                                                                                                   immigration
                                                                                          immigration             high immigration

* Following our priority categories for strategy seven, India, which has a low net immigration rate and low aging, should receive one star. But
because its aging trend is so moderate compared with other Index countries, we make an exception and give it no stars.
† Countries are divided into low-immigration countries (those below the mean for all Index countries) and high-immigration countries (those above
the mean). They are also divided into three demographic groups according to the projected elderly share of the population in 2040: low (under
30%), moderate (30-35%), and high (over 35%).
Public Pension Benefits to the Elderly, as a Percent of GDP in 2007 and
  2040: Current-Law versus Current-Deal Scenario*

                                  Current Current                                               Current Current
                       2007        Law     Deal*                                     2007        Law     Deal*
                                   2040    2040                                                  2040    2040

  Australia               4.6          6.5         8.0          Korea                   1.4          7.5          4.8

  Brazil                  6.5        13.4        16.1           Mexico                  0.8          0.8          2.1

  Canada                  3.9          5.6         7.7          Netherlands             5.3        10.7          10.0

  Chile                   4.2          3.3         9.4          Poland                  7.3          8.4         15.8

  China                   2.2          5.5         6.0          Russia                  3.5          5.6          6.6

  France                 11.2        12.8        19.0           Spain                   8.0        14.7          17.4

  Germany               10.0         11.9        18.5           Sweden                  8.8          9.9         11.8

  India                   1.4          2.2         2.7          Switzerland             5.4          8.5          9.2

  Italy                 12.3         15.1        23.5           UK                      5.8          7.9          8.1

  Japan                   9.1        10.1        17.4           US                      4.1          6.1          6.8

* The current-deal scenario assumes that workers in the future on average retire at the same age they do today
and that benefits replace the same share of wages.
Strategy 1: Reduce public pension benefits
       Public Pension Benefits to the Elderly, as a Percent of GDP in 2007 and 2040:
       Current-Law and Current-Deal Scenario*
                                 Current Current                                                     Current Current
                        2007      Law     Deal*              Stars                         2007       Law     Deal*           Stars
                                  2040    2040                                                        2040    2040
     Mexico              0.8        0.8         2.1          zero       Chile               4.2         3.3           9.4       ★
     India               1.4        2.2         2.7          zero       Netherlands         5.3        10.7           10.0     ★★
     Korea               1.4        7.5         4.8           ★         Sweden              8.8         9.9           11.8     ★★
     China               2.2        5.5         6.0           ★         Poland              7.3         8.4           15.8   ★★★
     Russia              3.5        5.6         6.6           ★         Brazil              6.5        13.4           16.1   ★★★
     US                  4.1        6.1         6.8           ★         Spain               8.0        14.7           17.4   ★★★
     Canada              3.9        5.6         7.7           ★         Japan               9.1        10.1           17.4   ★★★
     Australia           4.6        6.5         8.0           ★         Germany             10.0       11.9           18.5   ★★★
     UK                  5.8        7.9         8.1           ★         France              11.2       12.8           19.0   ★★★
     Switzerland         5.4        8.5         9.2           ★         Italy               12.3       15.1           23.5   ★★★

     * The current-deal scenario assumes that workers in the future on average retire at the same age they do today
     and that benefits replace the same share of wages.

                                                                                                             ★★ =
                                                                      No Stars =           ★=                                  ★★★=
  Reform Guide Key                                                                                         Significant
                                                                     Not a Priority     Low Priority                         High Priority
                                                                                                             Priority
  Strategy 1: Stars refer to projected current-deal public
                                                                          < 5%             5–10%              10–15%            > 15%
  pension benefits to the elderly in 2040 as a % of GDP
Strategy 2: Reduce health-care cost growth
        Public Health Benefits to the Elderly, as a Percent of GDP in 2007 and 2040


                              2007          2040          Stars                            2007       2040       Stars


      India                    0.2            0.9          zero       Sweden                 4.9       6.7       ★★
      China                    0.6            2.3          zero       Spain                  3.1       6.9       ★★
      Mexico                   0.7            2.8          zero       Japan                  4.0       7.0       ★★
      Chile                    1.1            3.3          zero       Germany                4.1       7.3       ★★
      Russia                   1.5            3.5          zero       UK                     4.0       7.5       ★★
      Poland                   1.7            3.7          zero       Switzerland            3.4       7.6       ★★
      Korea                    1.3            5.4           ★         Canada                 3.6       7.7       ★★
      Brazil                   1.4            5.4           ★         Netherlands            3.9       8.5       ★★★
      Australia                2.7            6.1          ★★         France                 4.5       9.2       ★★★
      Italy                    3.4            6.7          ★★         US                     4.2       9.3       ★★★




                                                                                                     ★★ =
                                                                    No Stars =         ★=                          ★★★=
  Reform Guide Key                                                                                 Significant
                                                                   Not a Priority   Low Priority                 High Priority
                                                                                                     Priority
  Strategy 2: Stars refer to projected public health benefits to
                                                                        < 4%           4–6%           6–8%           > 8%
  the elderly in 2040 as a % of GDP
Strategy 3: Extend work lives
        Labor-Force Participation Rate of the Elderly Aged 60–74 in 2007 and 2040


                              2007          2040          Stars                            2007       2040       Stars


      Korea                    45.6          44.6          zero       UK                    25.3      29.3       ★★
      Japan                    40.9          41.7          zero       China                 31.0      27.8       ★★
      US                       36.5          41.0          zero       India                 26.4      25.4       ★★
      Mexico                   41.1          40.1          zero       Russia                18.3      24.2       ★★
      Chile                    33.8          36.6           ★         Germany               15.7      23.5       ★★
      Brazil                   36.7          36.6           ★         Netherlands           18.2      22.4       ★★
      Australia                27.0          30.2           ★         Poland                11.8      21.8       ★★
      Canada                   27.8          30.2           ★         Spain                 15.2      17.6       ★★★
      Sweden                   33.5          30.1           ★         Italy                 10.5      13.9       ★★★
      Switzerland              30.7          30.0           ★         France                 7.9       8.5       ★★★




                                                                                                     ★★ =
                                                                    No Stars =         ★=                          ★★★=
  Reform Guide Key                                                                                 Significant
                                                                   Not a Priority   Low Priority                 High Priority
                                                                                                     Priority
  Strategy 3: Stars refer to projected labor-force participation
                                                                       > 40%          30–40%         20–30%         < 20%
  rate of the elderly aged 60–74 in 2040
Strategy 4: Increase funded pension savings
        Funded Pension Benefits as a Percent of Elderly Cash Income in 2007 and 2040


                             2007          2040         Stars                               2007       2040       Stars


      Netherlands             24.4         28.8          zero          Brazil                 2.2       8.2       ★★
      Canada                  26.8         28.6          zero          Russia                 0.4       8.1       ★★
      Australia               15.6         28.5          zero          Mexico                 2.3       7.5       ★★
      Switzerland             20.9         25.0          zero          Japan                  7.3       7.1       ★★
      US                      19.6         21.1           ★            India                  1.7       6.9       ★★
      Sweden                  9.3          18.8           ★            Germany                2.7       6.7       ★★
      Chile                   9.3          16.6           ★            Italy                  2.9       5.9       ★★
      UK                      16.3         16.3           ★            Spain                  2.9       4.6       ★★★
      Poland                  0.0          14.3          ★★            Korea                  4.1       3.9       ★★★
      China                   0.0           9.7          ★★            France                 1.3       1.8       ★★★




                                                                                                      ★★ =
                                                                     No Stars =         ★=                          ★★★=
  Reform Guide Key                                                                                  Significant
                                                                    Not a Priority   Low Priority                 High Priority
                                                                                                      Priority
  Strategy 4: Stars refer to projected funded pension benefits as
                                                                        > 25%          15–25%         5–15%           < 5%
  a % of elderly cash income in 2040
Strategy 5: Strengthen poverty floors
          Percent of the Elderly Living in Poverty Today*


                                        2007              Stars                                         2007            Stars

        Netherlands                      2.3              zero           Chile                          14.0             ★

        Poland                           3.7              zero           UK                             15.4             ★

        Brazil                           5.1              zero           Australia                      20.9            ★★

        Sweden                           5.5              zero           India                          21.8            ★★

        France                           8.1              zero           Japan†                         22.0            ★★

        Canada                           8.9              zero           US                             22.4            ★★

        Germany                          9.8              zero           Spain                          22.6            ★★

        Italy                           10.7                ★            China                          25.0            ★★★

        Switzerland                     12.7                ★            Mexico                         25.5            ★★★

        Russia                          13.8                ★            Korea                          36.2            ★★★

        * Data refer to various years between 1999 and 2007 and exclude public health benefits. Poor persons are
        persons with incomes beneath 50 percent of the median income for all persons.
        † Data for Japan refer to elderly aged 65 and older.

                                                                                                            ★★ =
                                                                      No Stars =          ★=                                ★★★=
  Reform Guide Key                                                                                        Significant
                                                                     Not a Priority    Low Priority                       High Priority
                                                                                                            Priority
  Strategy 5: Stars refer to percent of the elderly living in
                                                                         < 10%            10–20%            20–25%              > 25%
  relative poverty today
Strategy 6: Increase fertility rates
            Total Fertility Rate: Average for 2010-2040


                                       Average                                                         Average
                                                            Stars                                                        Stars
                                      2010-2040                                                       2010-2040

         India                             2.2               zero           Netherlands                  1.7             ★★
         Mexico                            2.2               zero           Canada                       1.6             ★★
         US                                2.1               zero           Switzerland                  1.5             ★★★
         Chile                             1.9                ★             Spain                        1.4             ★★★
         Brazil                            1.9                ★             Italy                        1.4             ★★★
         France                            1.9                ★             Russia                       1.4             ★★★
         Sweden                            1.9                ★             Germany                      1.3             ★★★
         UK                                1.8                ★             Japan                        1.3             ★★★
         Australia                         1.8                ★             Poland                       1.3             ★★★
         China                             1.8               ★★             Korea                        1.2             ★★★




                                                                                                            ★★ =
                                                                         No Stars =         ★=                               ★★★=
   Reform Guide Key                                                                                       Significant
                                                                        Not a Priority   Low Priority                      High Priority
                                                                                                            Priority
   Strategy 6: Stars refer to projected total fertility rates for the
                                                                             > 2.0          1.8–2.0            1.5–1.8           < 1.5
   period 2010-2040
Strategy 7: Increase immigration
                        Aging       Immigration                                          Aging        Immigration
                                                          Stars                                                         Stars
                        Group         Group                                              Group          Group
      India              Low             Low              zero         Canada              Med            High            ★
      Australia          Low             High             zero         France              Med            High            ★
      Sweden             Low             High             zero         Switzerland         Med            High            ★
      UK                 Low             High             zero         Netherlands         Med            Low            ★★
      US                 Low             High             zero         Poland              Med            Low            ★★
      Brazil             Low             Low               ★           Italy               High           High           ★★
      Chile              Low             Low               ★           Spain               High           High           ★★
      China              Low             Low               ★           Germany             High           Low           ★★★
      Mexico             Low             Low               ★           Japan               High           Low           ★★★
      Russia             Low             Low               ★           Korea               High           Low           ★★★


                                                                                                          ★★ =
                                                                    No Stars =          ★=                                 ★★★=
  Reform Guide Key                                                                                      Significant
                                                                   Not a Priority    Low Priority                        High Priority
                                                                                                          Priority
                                                                                                       moderate aging
                                                                                    moderate aging
                                                                                                       & low
                                                                   low aging &      & high
  Strategy 7: Stars refer to a composite measure of net                                                immigration or high aging &
                                                                   high             immigration or
  immigration rates and the degree of population aging*                                                high aging &   low immigration
                                                                   immigration      low aging & low
                                                                                                       high
                                                                                    immigration
                                                                                                       immigration

  * Countries are divided into low-immigration countries (those below the mean for all Index countries) and high-immigration countries
  (those above the mean). They are also divided into three demographic groups according to the projected elderly share of the
  population in 2040: low (under 30%), moderate (30-35%), and high (over 35%).

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Gap Aging presentation

  • 1. The Global Aging Preparedness Index GAPINDEX.CSIS.ORG Richard Jackson Center for Strategic and International Studies October 14, 2010 London
  • 2. The world stands on the threshold of a stunning demographic transformation. It’s called global aging and it promises to affect every dimension of social and economic life. Perhaps most fatefully, it could call into question the ability of societies to maintain a decent standard of living for the old without imposing a crushing burden on the young.
  • 3. Elderly (Aged 60 and Over), as a Percent of the Population in 2007 and 2040 India 7.2 15.6 Canada 18.6 31.5 Brazil 9.3 22.2 2007 France 21.6 31.6 Mexico 8.7 20.2 22.3 2040 Netherlands 32.2 Chile 12.2 22.2 25.0 Switzerland 32.7 US 17.2 17.9 25.4 Poland 33.5 China 11.3 21.9 27.9 Spain 37.9 UK 21.8 14.2 27.9 Korea 38.6 Australia 18.3 Germany 25.3 28.5 39.0 Russia 17.3 Italy 25.7 28.8 39.9 Sweden 24.0 Japan 28.1 29.6 43.3 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
  • 4. The GAP Index GAP Index Countries  The GAP Index provides a unique new Australia quantitative assessment of the progress that Brazil countries worldwide are making in preparing Canada for the global aging challenge. Chile China France  The GAP Index projections extend through Germany the year 2040 in order to capture the full India impact of the demographic transformation Italy now sweeping the world. Japan Korea Mexico  The GAP Index covers twenty Netherlands countries, including both developed Poland economies and emerging markets. Russia Spain Sweden  The GAP Index consists of two subindices— Switzerland the fiscal sustainability index and the UK income adequacy index. US
  • 5. GAP FISCAL SUSTAINABILITY INDEX PUBLIC BURDEN FISCAL ROOM CATEGORY BENEFIT DEPENDENCE CATEGORY Measures each country’s ability CATEGORY Measures the magnitude of to accommodate the growth in Measures how dependent the each country’s projected public its public old-age dependency elderly in each country are on old-age dependency burden burden by raising taxes, cutting public benefits—and thus how other spending, or borrowing politically difficult it may be to reduce those benefits BENEFIT BENEFIT TAX ROOM BUDGET BORROWING BENEFIT BENEFIT LEVEL GROWTH INDICATOR ROOM ROOM SHARE CUT INDICATOR INDICATOR Total INDICATOR INDICATOR INDICATOR INDICATOR Total public The growth in Government Total public The net public Total public The % of benefits to total public revenue in benefits to debt in 2040 as benefits as a elderly the elderly in benefits to 2040 as a % the elderly in a % of % of elderly households 2040 as a % the elderly of 2040 as a % GDP, assumin income: that would be of GDP from 2007 to GDP, assumi of g borrowing Average for pushed into 2040 as a % ng taxes are government pays for all 2007 to 2040 poverty by a of GDP raised to pay outlays, assu growth in 10% cut in for all growth ming cuts in public benefits public in public other benefits in benefits spending pay 2007 or the for all growth most recent in public available year benefits
  • 6. Public Burden Category Benefit Level Indicator Total Public Benefits to the Elderly, as a Percent of GDP, 2007–2040 2007 2020 2030 2040 2007 2020 2030 2040 1 India 1.9 3.1 4.2 3.6 11 Switzerland 9.8 12.6 15.7 17.4 2 Mexico 2.4 3.2 3.9 5.1 12 UK 12.1 14.0 16.4 18.2 3 Chile 6.0 6.8 7.0 7.5 13 Japan 14.1 15.4 15.9 18.4 4 China 2.8 4.6 6.1 8.0 14 Sweden 15.7 16.6 18.1 19.2 5 Russia 5.8 7.5 8.7 10.2 15 Brazil 8.8 12.5 16.3 20.4 6 Poland 10.1 12.0 13.1 13.9 16 Germany 15.8 17.3 20.0 21.7 7 Korea 3.4 7.5 11.0 14.1 17 Netherlands 12.0 15.7 20.0 23.2 8 Canada 8.3 10.9 13.2 14.7 18 France 16.6 19.4 21.8 23.5 9 Australia 8.9 10.7 12.9 14.9 19 Italy 18.0 19.9 22.3 24.7 10 US 8.9 12.5 15.1 16.3 20 Spain 14.3 17.0 20.6 26.1 Note: Countries are ranked from best to worst according to the projection results for 2040.
  • 7. Public Burden Category Benefit Growth Indicator Growth in Total Public Benefits to the Elderly from 2007 to 2040, as a Percent of GDP Chile 1.5 UK 6.1 India 1.6 Canada 6.4 Mexico 2.7 Italy 6.6 Sweden 3.5 France 6.8 Poland 3.8 US 7.4 Japan 4.3 Switzerland 7.6 Russia 4.4 Korea 10.7 China 5.2 Netherlands 11.2 Germany 5.9 Brazil 11.6 Australia 6.0 Spain 11.8 0% 5% 10% 15% 0% 5% 10% 15% Note: Countries are ranked from best to worst.
  • 8. Fiscal Room Category Tax Room Indicator Total Government Revenue as a Percent of GDP, Assuming Taxes Are Raised to Pay for All Growth in Public Benefits, 2007–2040* 2007 2020 2030 2040 2007 2020 2030 2040 1 India 23.5 23.8 25.1 24.2 11 Korea 33.3 36.4 39.4 42.3 2 Mexico 22.6 22.9 23.4 24.4 12 Canada 40.7 41.5 43.5 45.0 3 Chile 29.5 26.4 26.4 26.9 13 UK 41.4 43.2 45.4 47.4 4 China 21.7 23.9 25.2 27.2 14 Brazil 34.8 39.6 43.5 47.4 5 Japan 33.5 33.7 34.0 36.2 15 Germany 43.9 43.9 45.8 47.5 6 Poland 40.3 39.4 39.8 40.4 16 Spain 41.1 42.4 45.6 50.3 7 Russia 40.0 38.0 38.9 40.5 17 Italy 46.4 47.7 49.5 51.4 8 Switzerland 33.9 35.9 38.8 40.6 18 Netherlands 45.7 47.8 51.5 54.7 9 Australia 35.7 36.6 38.7 40.6 19 France 49.6 52.4 54.6 56.3 10 US 34.0 37.6 40.3 41.7 20 Sweden 56.3 55.1 56.3 57.4 Note: Countries are ranked from best to worst according to the projection results for 2040. * The projections assume that, beginning in 2015, each country moves to a debt-neutral fiscal balance in its ―rest of government‖ budget.
  • 9. Fiscal Room Category Budget Room Indicator Total Public Benefits to the Elderly as a Percent of Government Outlays in 2007 and 2040, Assuming Cuts in Other Spending Pay for All Growth in Public Benefits* India 6.7 US 24.2 12.5 44.1 Mexico 10.2 France 31.8 21.2 2007 44.9 Russia 17.3 Korea 12.0 27.9 2040 46.4 Chile 29.2 Germany 36.3 30.9 48.8 Poland 24.0 Netherlands 26.3 33.3 50.1 Sweden 29.9 Italy 37.7 35.5 51.0 Canada 21.2 Japan 39.2 36.3 51.0 China 12.6 Switzerland 30.4 36.3 52.6 UK 27.4 Brazil 23.8 41.2 55.6 Australia 26.0 Spain 36.4 42.5 64.0 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% Note: Countries are ranked from best to worst according to the projection results for 2040. * The projections assume that, beginning in 2015, each country moves to a debt-neutral fiscal balance in its ―rest of government‖ budget.
  • 10. Fiscal Room Category Borrowing Room Indicator Net Public Debt as a Percent of GDP, Assuming that Borrowing Pays for All Growth in Public Benefits, 2007–2040* 2007 2020 2030 2040 2007 2020 2030 2040 1 Chile -13.7 -14.5 -26.0 -31.1 11 India† 78.3 84.6 80.0 108.0 2 Sweden -25.0 -12.9 -14.1 17.8 12 Germany 42.9 54.7 56.7 127.2 3 Russia 0.0 1.6 -6.2 32.0 13 Japan 80.4 104.6 114.9 133.6 4 China 1.7 -1.5 -1.1 39.0 14 France 34.0 60.7 73.5 149.2 5 Mexico 31.4 44.4 43.0 66.8 15 UK 28.8 58.3 76.9 152.6 6 Poland 17.0 32.4 41.7 70.1 16 Italy 87.1 100.8 103.6 168.2 7 Australia -6.6 -1.1 1.3 73.9 17 Netherlands 28.0 36.5 41.3 169.1 8 Korea -35.8 -33.4 -36.8 87.4 18 Spain 18.7 41.6 49.2 175.1 9 Switzerland 11.0 9.3 5.8 98.9 19 Brazil 42.0 37.3 37.2 175.2 10 Canada 23.1 32.6 32.7 104.8 20 US 42.3 65.0 76.2 179.0 Note: Countries are ranked from best to worst according to the projection results for 2040. * The projections assume that, beginning in 2015, each country moves to a debt-neutral fiscal balance in its ―rest of government‖ budget. † Data for India refer to gross debt.
  • 11. Benefit Dependence Category Benefit Share Indicator Public Benefits, as a Percent of Elderly Income, 2007–2040 Average Average 2007 2020 2030 2040 2007 2020 2030 2040 2007-40 2007-40 1 Mexico 25.3 26.6 26.0 26.5 27.1 11 Netherlands 49.6 48.9 49.6 51.6 49.8 2 Chile 34.8 30.6 26.9 26.3 30.8 12 China 48.0 52.5 51.0 54.8 52.1 3 India 27.4 32.2 34.5 26.5 31.6 13 Sweden 53.6 52.6 51.2 52.8 52.5 4 US 35.1 37.2 38.8 40.3 38.1 14 UK 51.5 52.5 52.2 55.1 52.8 5 Australia 43.1 39.5 40.3 41.2 40.5 15 Russia 57.4 55.9 57.4 54.9 56.5 6 Korea 29.9 40.9 44.0 45.9 41.3 16 Italy 60.5 58.1 55.8 55.9 57.6 7 Japan 46.9 44.5 42.2 42.6 43.9 17 Brazil 64.2 62.6 62.3 62.2 62.8 8 Canada 43.8 43.3 44.8 46.0 44.2 18 Spain 63.1 63.3 63.0 64.2 64.0 9 Switzerland 41.5 43.6 44.9 47.1 44.3 19 France 66.7 65.8 66.2 67.4 66.3 10 Germany 54.5 47.8 45.2 47.1 48.4 20 Poland 77.1 68.6 63.0 56.7 66.8 Note: Countries are ranked from best to worst according to the average for 2007 to 2040.
  • 12. Benefit Dependence Category Benefit Cut Indicator Percent of Elderly Households That Would Be Pushed into Poverty Today by a 10 Percent Cut in Public Benefits* India 0.1 Italy 3.3 Mexico 0.6 Spain 4.1 Korea 0.7 Russia 4.6 Brazil 1.2 Sweden 5.1 China 1.2 Canada 5.3 Poland 2.2 UK 5.8 Chile 2.3 Australia 5.9 France 2.8 Germany 6.2 Japan 2.9 Switzerland 6.3 US 3.0 Netherlands 7.7 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% Note: Countries are ranked from best to worst. * Data refer to various years between 1999 and 2007 and exclude public health benefits. Poor households are households with incomes beneath 50 percent of the median income for all households.
  • 13. GAP INCOME ADEQUACY INDEX TOTAL INCOME INCOME VULNERABILITY FAMILY SUPPORT CATEGORY CATEGORY CATEGORY Measures the overall level of Measures income adequacy for Measures the strength of family and trend in the income of the ―middle class‖ elders and the support networks in each elderly relative to the nonelderly extent of elderly poverty in each country in each country country TOTAL TOTAL MEDIAN MEDIAN POVERTY FAMILY FAMILY INCOME INCOME INCOME INCOME LEVEL TIES SIZE LEVEL TREND LEVEL TREND INDICATOR INDICATOR INDICATOR INDICATOR INDICATOR INDICATOR INDICATOR The % of the The % of the The change The ratio of The % The ratio of The % elderly with elderly living in the average after- change in the median after- change in the incomes in households average tax elderly to ratio of tax elderly to ratio of beneath 50% with their number of nonelderly average after- nonelderly median after- of the median adult children surviving income in tax elderly to income in tax elderly to income for all in 2007 children of 2040, includin nonelderly 2040, excludi nonelderly persons in the elderly g public income from ng public income from 2007 or the from 2007 to health 2007 to health 2007 to most recent 2040 benefits 2040, includin benefits 2040, excludi available year g public ng public health health benefits benefits
  • 14. Total Income Category Total Income Level Indicator Ratio of Average After-Tax Elderly to Nonelderly Income, Including Public Health Benefits, 2007–2040 2007 2020 2030 2040 2007 2020 2030 2040 1 Netherlands 1.29 1.37 1.52 1.72 11 Japan 1.19 1.12 1.11 1.12 2 US 1.43 1.54 1.62 1.67 12 Spain 1.00 1.06 1.05 1.06 3 Brazil 1.33 1.40 1.47 1.54 13 Italy 1.12 1.12 1.09 1.04 4 Germany 1.31 1.43 1.48 1.48 14 Switzerland 0.86 0.87 0.88 0.89 5 Chile 1.41 1.45 1.39 1.38 15 Mexico 0.94 0.88 0.85 0.82 6 Sweden 1.26 1.21 1.27 1.28 16 Korea 0.81 0.82 0.79 0.79 7 Australia 1.04 1.09 1.14 1.20 17 India 0.78 0.83 0.85 0.78 8 UK 1.05 1.08 1.14 1.19 18 Poland 0.75 0.70 0.76 0.74 9 Canada 1.13 1.11 1.11 1.14 19 Russia 0.68 0.65 0.65 0.71 10 France 1.16 1.09 1.10 1.13 20 China 0.52 0.53 0.50 0.51 Note: Countries are ranked from best to worst according to the projection results for 2040.
  • 15. Total Income Category Total Income Trend Indicator Percent Change in the Ratio of Average After-Tax Elderly to Nonelderly Income from 2007 to 2040, Including Public Health Benefits Netherlands 32.9 Canada 0.7 US 17.0 India 0.5 Brazil 15.9 Poland -1.2 Australia 15.7 China -1.8 UK 13.4 Chile -2.2 Germany 13.0 Korea -2.9 Spain 5.7 France -3.1 Russia 3.9 Japan -5.6 Switzerland 3.8 Italy -6.6 Sweden 1.8 Mexico -12.7 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Note: Countries are ranked from best to worst.
  • 16. Income Vulnerability Category Median Income Level Indicator Ratio of Median After-Tax Elderly to Nonelderly Income, Excluding Public Health Benefits, 2007–2040* 2007 2020 2030 2040 2007 2020 2030 2040 1 Brazil 1.23 1.24 1.26 1.30 11 Italy 1.02 0.99 0.94 0.87 2 Netherlands 1.00 1.02 1.13 1.27 12 Canada 0.91 0.87 0.85 0.81 3 US 1.16 1.22 1.27 1.26 13 France 0.89 0.78 0.76 0.75 4 Germany 1.05 1.04 1.04 1.04 14 Poland 0.80 0.71 0.77 0.72 5 Chile 1.11 1.11 1.02 0.99 15 Switzerland 0.73 0.71 0.71 0.71 6 Japan 1.11 1.00 0.95 0.96 16 India 0.76 0.78 0.78 0.71 7 Sweden 0.94 0.92 0.94 0.94 17 Russia 0.64 0.59 0.58 0.61 8 Australia 0.89 0.85 0.88 0.93 18 Mexico 0.72 0.64 0.60 0.56 9 Spain 0.93 0.95 0.93 0.93 19 Korea 0.59 0.57 0.53 0.52 10 UK 0.88 0.88 0.90 0.93 20 China 0.39 0.38 0.35 0.34 Note: Countries are ranked from best to worst according to the projection results for 2040. * Data for both the elderly and nonelderly refer to the third quintile of the income distribution.
  • 17. Income Vulnerability Category Median Income Trend Indicator Percent Change in the Ratio of Median After-Tax Elderly to Nonelderly Income from 2007 to 2040, Excluding Public Health Benefits* Netherlands 27.7 India -6.9 US 8.8 Poland -9.4 Brazil 5.5 Canada -10.2 UK 5.3 Chile -10.8 Australia 4.6 China -12.1 Spain 0.1 Korea -13.2 Sweden -0.8 Japan -14.2 Germany -0.9 Italy -14.8 Switzerland -2.5 France -15.9 Russia -5.5 Mexico -21.9 -35% -25% -15% -5% 5% 15% 25% 35% -35% -25% -15% -5% 5% 15% 25% 35% Note: Countries are ranked from best to worst. * Data for both the elderly and nonelderly refer to the third quintile of the income distribution.
  • 18. Income Vulnerability Category Poverty Level Indicator Percent of the Elderly Living in Poverty Today* Netherlands 2.3 Chile 14.0 Poland 3.7 UK 15.4 Brazil 5.1 Australia 20.9 Sweden 5.5 India 21.8 France 8.1 Japan† 22.0 Canada 8.9 US 22.4 Germany 9.8 Spain 22.6 Italy 10.7 China 25.0 Switzerland 12.7 Mexico 25.5 Russia 13.8 Korea 36.2 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Note: Countries are ranked from best to worst. * Data refer to various years between 999 and 2007 and exclude public health benefits. Poor persons are persons with incomes beneath 50 percent of the median income for all persons. † Data for Japan refer to elderly aged 65 and older.
  • 19. Family Support Category Family Ties Indicator Percent of the Elderly Living in Households with Their Adult Children in 2007 Italy 28.2 India 82.8 China 64.0 Canada 20.5 Mexico 57.3 US 16.9 Chile 54.5 Australia 16.2 Brazil 51.3 France 10.5 Japan 44.0 UK 9.7 Spain 42.4 Germany 8.4 Russia 39.9 Switzerland 6.4 Korea 37.2 Netherlands 5.3 Poland 31.6 Sweden 4.1 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Note: Countries are ranked from best to worst.
  • 20. Family Support Category Family Size Indicator Average Number of Surviving Children of the Elderly: 2007, 2040, and Change from 2007 to 2040 2007 2040 Change 2007 2040 Change 1 Sweden 2.1 2.0 -0.2 11 US 1.9 1.0 -1.0 2 Japan 2.0 1.5 -0.5 12 Australia 3.0 2.0 -1.0 3 Poland 2.6 2.0 -0.6 13 Netherlands 2.7 1.6 -1.1 4 UK 2.4 1.9 -0.6 14 Chile 3.5 2.4 -1.1 5 France 2.5 1.9 -0.6 15 Spain 2.7 1.4 -1.2 6 Germany 2.1 1.4 -0.7 16 Canada 3.2 1.7 -1.5 7 Switzerland 2.2 1.6 -0.7 17 China 3.5 2.0 -1.6 8 Russia 2.2 1.5 -0.7 18 Brazil 3.8 2.1 -1.7 9 India 3.5 2.6 -0.9 19 Korea 3.6 1.8 -1.8 10 Italy 2.3 1.4 -0.9 20 Mexico 5.0 2.6 -2.5 Note: Countries are ranked from best to worst according to the projected change from 2007 to 2040.
  • 21. GAP Index Country Rankings Fiscal Sustainability Index Income Adequacy Index 1 India 1 Netherlands 2 Mexico 2 Brazil 3 Chile 3 US 4 China 4 Germany 5 Russia 5 UK 6 Poland 6 Australia 7 Australia 7 Sweden 8 Japan 8 Chile 9 Canada 9 Spain 10 Sweden 10 India 11 US 11 Canada 12 Korea 12 Japan 13 Switzerland 13 Poland 14 Germany 14 Switzerland 15 UK 15 Russia 16 Italy 16 France 17 France 17 Italy 18 Brazil 18 China 19 Netherlands 19 Korea 20 Spain 20 Mexico
  • 22. GAP Index Reform Strategy Guide 1. Reduce 4. Increase 2. Reduce 5. Strengthen public 3. Extend funded 6. Increase 7. Increase health-care poverty pension work lives pension fertility rates immigration cost growth floors benefits savings Australia ★ ★★ ★ ★★ ★ Brazil ★★★ ★ ★ ★★ ★ ★ Canada ★ ★★ ★ ★★ ★ Chile ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ China ★ ★★ ★★ ★★★ ★★ ★ France ★★★ ★★★ ★★★ ★★★ ★ ★ Germany ★★★ ★★ ★★ ★★ ★★★ ★★★ India* ★★ ★★ ★★ Italy ★★★ ★★ ★★★ ★★ ★ ★★★ ★★ Japan ★★★ ★★ ★★ ★★ ★★★ ★★★ Korea ★ ★ ★★★ ★★★ ★★★ ★★★ Mexico ★★ ★★★ ★ Netherlands ★★ ★★★ ★★ ★★ ★★ Poland ★★★ ★★ ★★ ★★★ ★★ Russia ★ ★★ ★★ ★ ★★★ ★ Spain ★★★ ★★ ★★★ ★★★ ★★ ★★★ ★★ Sweden ★★ ★★ ★ ★ ★ Switzerland ★ ★★ ★ ★ ★★★ ★ UK ★ ★★ ★★ ★ ★ ★ US ★ ★★★ ★ ★★ Reform Guide Key: No Stars = Not a Priority ★ = Low Priority ★★ = Significant Priority ★★★= High Priority
  • 23. Annex
  • 24. GAP Index Reform Strategy Guide No Stars = ★★ = ★= ★★★= Reform Guide Key Not a Significant Low Priority High Priority Priority Priority Strategy 1: Stars refer to projected current-deal public < 5% 5–10% 10–15% > 15% pension benefits to the elderly in 2040 as a % of GDP Strategy 2: Stars refer to projected public health < 4% 4–6% 6–8% > 8% benefits to the elderly in 2040 as a % of GDP Strategy 3: Stars refer to projected labor-force > 40% 30–40% 20–30% < 20% participation rate of the elderly aged 60–74 in 2040 Strategy 4: Stars refer to projected funded pension > 25% 15–25% 5–15% < 5% benefits as a % of elderly cash income in 2040 Strategy 5: Stars refer to percent of the elderly living in < 10% 10–20% 20–25% > 25% relative poverty today Strategy 6: Stars refer to projected total fertility rates > 2.0 1.8–2.0 1.5–1.8 < 1.5 for the period 2010-2040 moderate aging moderate aging & high & low Strategy 7: Stars refer to a composite measure of net low aging & high high aging & low immigration or immigration or immigration rates and the degree of population aging † immigration low aging & low high aging & immigration immigration high immigration * Following our priority categories for strategy seven, India, which has a low net immigration rate and low aging, should receive one star. But because its aging trend is so moderate compared with other Index countries, we make an exception and give it no stars. † Countries are divided into low-immigration countries (those below the mean for all Index countries) and high-immigration countries (those above the mean). They are also divided into three demographic groups according to the projected elderly share of the population in 2040: low (under 30%), moderate (30-35%), and high (over 35%).
  • 25. Public Pension Benefits to the Elderly, as a Percent of GDP in 2007 and 2040: Current-Law versus Current-Deal Scenario* Current Current Current Current 2007 Law Deal* 2007 Law Deal* 2040 2040 2040 2040 Australia 4.6 6.5 8.0 Korea 1.4 7.5 4.8 Brazil 6.5 13.4 16.1 Mexico 0.8 0.8 2.1 Canada 3.9 5.6 7.7 Netherlands 5.3 10.7 10.0 Chile 4.2 3.3 9.4 Poland 7.3 8.4 15.8 China 2.2 5.5 6.0 Russia 3.5 5.6 6.6 France 11.2 12.8 19.0 Spain 8.0 14.7 17.4 Germany 10.0 11.9 18.5 Sweden 8.8 9.9 11.8 India 1.4 2.2 2.7 Switzerland 5.4 8.5 9.2 Italy 12.3 15.1 23.5 UK 5.8 7.9 8.1 Japan 9.1 10.1 17.4 US 4.1 6.1 6.8 * The current-deal scenario assumes that workers in the future on average retire at the same age they do today and that benefits replace the same share of wages.
  • 26. Strategy 1: Reduce public pension benefits Public Pension Benefits to the Elderly, as a Percent of GDP in 2007 and 2040: Current-Law and Current-Deal Scenario* Current Current Current Current 2007 Law Deal* Stars 2007 Law Deal* Stars 2040 2040 2040 2040 Mexico 0.8 0.8 2.1 zero Chile 4.2 3.3 9.4 ★ India 1.4 2.2 2.7 zero Netherlands 5.3 10.7 10.0 ★★ Korea 1.4 7.5 4.8 ★ Sweden 8.8 9.9 11.8 ★★ China 2.2 5.5 6.0 ★ Poland 7.3 8.4 15.8 ★★★ Russia 3.5 5.6 6.6 ★ Brazil 6.5 13.4 16.1 ★★★ US 4.1 6.1 6.8 ★ Spain 8.0 14.7 17.4 ★★★ Canada 3.9 5.6 7.7 ★ Japan 9.1 10.1 17.4 ★★★ Australia 4.6 6.5 8.0 ★ Germany 10.0 11.9 18.5 ★★★ UK 5.8 7.9 8.1 ★ France 11.2 12.8 19.0 ★★★ Switzerland 5.4 8.5 9.2 ★ Italy 12.3 15.1 23.5 ★★★ * The current-deal scenario assumes that workers in the future on average retire at the same age they do today and that benefits replace the same share of wages. ★★ = No Stars = ★= ★★★= Reform Guide Key Significant Not a Priority Low Priority High Priority Priority Strategy 1: Stars refer to projected current-deal public < 5% 5–10% 10–15% > 15% pension benefits to the elderly in 2040 as a % of GDP
  • 27. Strategy 2: Reduce health-care cost growth Public Health Benefits to the Elderly, as a Percent of GDP in 2007 and 2040 2007 2040 Stars 2007 2040 Stars India 0.2 0.9 zero Sweden 4.9 6.7 ★★ China 0.6 2.3 zero Spain 3.1 6.9 ★★ Mexico 0.7 2.8 zero Japan 4.0 7.0 ★★ Chile 1.1 3.3 zero Germany 4.1 7.3 ★★ Russia 1.5 3.5 zero UK 4.0 7.5 ★★ Poland 1.7 3.7 zero Switzerland 3.4 7.6 ★★ Korea 1.3 5.4 ★ Canada 3.6 7.7 ★★ Brazil 1.4 5.4 ★ Netherlands 3.9 8.5 ★★★ Australia 2.7 6.1 ★★ France 4.5 9.2 ★★★ Italy 3.4 6.7 ★★ US 4.2 9.3 ★★★ ★★ = No Stars = ★= ★★★= Reform Guide Key Significant Not a Priority Low Priority High Priority Priority Strategy 2: Stars refer to projected public health benefits to < 4% 4–6% 6–8% > 8% the elderly in 2040 as a % of GDP
  • 28. Strategy 3: Extend work lives Labor-Force Participation Rate of the Elderly Aged 60–74 in 2007 and 2040 2007 2040 Stars 2007 2040 Stars Korea 45.6 44.6 zero UK 25.3 29.3 ★★ Japan 40.9 41.7 zero China 31.0 27.8 ★★ US 36.5 41.0 zero India 26.4 25.4 ★★ Mexico 41.1 40.1 zero Russia 18.3 24.2 ★★ Chile 33.8 36.6 ★ Germany 15.7 23.5 ★★ Brazil 36.7 36.6 ★ Netherlands 18.2 22.4 ★★ Australia 27.0 30.2 ★ Poland 11.8 21.8 ★★ Canada 27.8 30.2 ★ Spain 15.2 17.6 ★★★ Sweden 33.5 30.1 ★ Italy 10.5 13.9 ★★★ Switzerland 30.7 30.0 ★ France 7.9 8.5 ★★★ ★★ = No Stars = ★= ★★★= Reform Guide Key Significant Not a Priority Low Priority High Priority Priority Strategy 3: Stars refer to projected labor-force participation > 40% 30–40% 20–30% < 20% rate of the elderly aged 60–74 in 2040
  • 29. Strategy 4: Increase funded pension savings Funded Pension Benefits as a Percent of Elderly Cash Income in 2007 and 2040 2007 2040 Stars 2007 2040 Stars Netherlands 24.4 28.8 zero Brazil 2.2 8.2 ★★ Canada 26.8 28.6 zero Russia 0.4 8.1 ★★ Australia 15.6 28.5 zero Mexico 2.3 7.5 ★★ Switzerland 20.9 25.0 zero Japan 7.3 7.1 ★★ US 19.6 21.1 ★ India 1.7 6.9 ★★ Sweden 9.3 18.8 ★ Germany 2.7 6.7 ★★ Chile 9.3 16.6 ★ Italy 2.9 5.9 ★★ UK 16.3 16.3 ★ Spain 2.9 4.6 ★★★ Poland 0.0 14.3 ★★ Korea 4.1 3.9 ★★★ China 0.0 9.7 ★★ France 1.3 1.8 ★★★ ★★ = No Stars = ★= ★★★= Reform Guide Key Significant Not a Priority Low Priority High Priority Priority Strategy 4: Stars refer to projected funded pension benefits as > 25% 15–25% 5–15% < 5% a % of elderly cash income in 2040
  • 30. Strategy 5: Strengthen poverty floors Percent of the Elderly Living in Poverty Today* 2007 Stars 2007 Stars Netherlands 2.3 zero Chile 14.0 ★ Poland 3.7 zero UK 15.4 ★ Brazil 5.1 zero Australia 20.9 ★★ Sweden 5.5 zero India 21.8 ★★ France 8.1 zero Japan† 22.0 ★★ Canada 8.9 zero US 22.4 ★★ Germany 9.8 zero Spain 22.6 ★★ Italy 10.7 ★ China 25.0 ★★★ Switzerland 12.7 ★ Mexico 25.5 ★★★ Russia 13.8 ★ Korea 36.2 ★★★ * Data refer to various years between 1999 and 2007 and exclude public health benefits. Poor persons are persons with incomes beneath 50 percent of the median income for all persons. † Data for Japan refer to elderly aged 65 and older. ★★ = No Stars = ★= ★★★= Reform Guide Key Significant Not a Priority Low Priority High Priority Priority Strategy 5: Stars refer to percent of the elderly living in < 10% 10–20% 20–25% > 25% relative poverty today
  • 31. Strategy 6: Increase fertility rates Total Fertility Rate: Average for 2010-2040 Average Average Stars Stars 2010-2040 2010-2040 India 2.2 zero Netherlands 1.7 ★★ Mexico 2.2 zero Canada 1.6 ★★ US 2.1 zero Switzerland 1.5 ★★★ Chile 1.9 ★ Spain 1.4 ★★★ Brazil 1.9 ★ Italy 1.4 ★★★ France 1.9 ★ Russia 1.4 ★★★ Sweden 1.9 ★ Germany 1.3 ★★★ UK 1.8 ★ Japan 1.3 ★★★ Australia 1.8 ★ Poland 1.3 ★★★ China 1.8 ★★ Korea 1.2 ★★★ ★★ = No Stars = ★= ★★★= Reform Guide Key Significant Not a Priority Low Priority High Priority Priority Strategy 6: Stars refer to projected total fertility rates for the > 2.0 1.8–2.0 1.5–1.8 < 1.5 period 2010-2040
  • 32. Strategy 7: Increase immigration Aging Immigration Aging Immigration Stars Stars Group Group Group Group India Low Low zero Canada Med High ★ Australia Low High zero France Med High ★ Sweden Low High zero Switzerland Med High ★ UK Low High zero Netherlands Med Low ★★ US Low High zero Poland Med Low ★★ Brazil Low Low ★ Italy High High ★★ Chile Low Low ★ Spain High High ★★ China Low Low ★ Germany High Low ★★★ Mexico Low Low ★ Japan High Low ★★★ Russia Low Low ★ Korea High Low ★★★ ★★ = No Stars = ★= ★★★= Reform Guide Key Significant Not a Priority Low Priority High Priority Priority moderate aging moderate aging & low low aging & & high Strategy 7: Stars refer to a composite measure of net immigration or high aging & high immigration or immigration rates and the degree of population aging* high aging & low immigration immigration low aging & low high immigration immigration * Countries are divided into low-immigration countries (those below the mean for all Index countries) and high-immigration countries (those above the mean). They are also divided into three demographic groups according to the projected elderly share of the population in 2040: low (under 30%), moderate (30-35%), and high (over 35%).