Allianz Demographic Pulse                             issue # 5 | March 2011       The Burden of our Long ...
Allianz Demographic Pulse                                                                                                 ...
Allianz Demographic Pulse                                                                                                 ...
Allianz Demographic Pulse                                                                                                 ...
Allianz Demographic Pulse                                                                                                i...
Allianz Demographic Pulse                                                                                                 ...
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Allianz Demographic Pulse March 2011


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It is predicted that age-related government expenditure for pensions, health and care will consume nearly 30% of Europe’s annual economic output by 2060.

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Allianz Demographic Pulse March 2011

  1. 1. Allianz Demographic Pulse issue # 5 | March 2011 The Burden of our Long Lives...It is predicted that age-related government expenditure for pensions, health and care will consume nearly 30% of Europe’s annual economic output by 2060.The financial crisis has placed national deficits at the focus of political debate and public awareness.Economic programs, capital injections in the financial sector and falling tax revenues have dyed publicfinances deep red in countries the world over. The precarious financial standing of Greece, Portugal andIreland has also shown that national financial crises are no longer restricted to emerging markets butcan become a real challenge everywhere. Cost explosion of pension, health and care costs everywhere in Europe Image © Martin Kraft, 2011 / Percent of GDP 2007 level Increase by 2060 35 31.1 29.1 29.5 30 28.4 28.3 27.6 27.8 25.7 25 24.0 20 15 10 5 0 France Austria Germany Spain Italy Hungary Great Britain Eurozone EU 27 Sources: Allianz/European Commission: The 2009 Ageing Report Age-related state spending for pensions, health and care in 2007 and prediction for 2060 1
  2. 2. Allianz Demographic Pulse issue # 5 | March 2011 Longer lives – longer retirement Image © Regien Paassen, 2011 / 1970 2007 Switzerland* 9.0 16.8 USA 11.0 17.6 Great Britain 10.5 18.8 Hungary 9.6 18.9 Germany 10.5 19.8 Spain 10.7 20.9 Italy 13.1 21.7 Austria 12.4 23.1 France 10.8 24.0 0 5 10 15 20 25 * Data based on 2008 Sources: Allianz / OECD / Swiss Statistics The expected time spent in retirement increased significantly everywhere between 1970 and 2007The financial crisis has placed an enormous Second, the aging process is a worldwide According to EU Commission projections,burden on state budgets. However, in all phenomenon that affects industrialized when these effects are taken into accountprobability the shock will pass in time. The and emerging countries alike. A combi- population aging will increase state ex-same cannot be said of the rapid aging of nation of increasing life expectancy and penditure by 4.75% of GDP in the EU andour societies. Unlike the financial crisis, falling retirement age until the late 1990s by half a percent more in the Eurozone.this new global challenge is foreseeable. has meant that many people now enjoy a This increase means that by 2060 aroundIts effects are long-term and slow to much longer retirement. Whereas rapid 28% of GDP will be spent in these areas.develop, which is why they are quickly population aging in China calls for further To put this into context, according to theforgotten – or do not even become the development of the state social systems, International Labor Office the fiscal pro-subject of public debate. the main driver of government spending grams imposed in the EU during the reces- in the USA is the healthcare system. sion are on order of 0.3 to 2.8% of GDP2.Nevertheless, aging is a global structural These figures do not imply that the trendtrend with potentially dramatic social and Third, a comparison of pension systems will peak by 2060. The time at which publiceconomic consequences, one of which is in terms of their sustainability shows that spending peaks differs from country tothat state budgets will be dominated by those with diversified pension income country, and the pressure on state financesspending on pensions, health and care. from various pillars are fiscally the most is felt much earlier. In the Eurozone, age-The main effects are: sustainable. For this reason Australia and related public spending is expected to swell Sweden lead the pack in the Allianz by 3.2 percentage points by 2035 and byFirst, the aging of society greatly increases Pension Sustainability Index. two percentage points in the following 25government spending on pensions, health years. Generally speaking, the pressure onand care. It is predicted that by 2060 these Aging and public finances national budgets is not just a direct conse-costs will rise by 4.75 percentage points of An aging population has repercussions quence of demographic trends but dependsgross domestic product (GDP) compared across the board. Pensions, health and care to a large extent on the nature of eachto today. To put this into perspective, the are just the most obvious and most directly national system and on policy decisions.current economic output (5861 bn Euro) affected areas, as these areas account forof the Netherlands accounts for the the lion’s share of public expenditure. On 1 Age-related government expenditure in 2060 can-same share of European GDP today! the other hand, governments will spend not be assessed in absolute terms. This figure is toThus, age-related state expenditure could less in other areas of an aging society: lower provide a sense of proportion by referring to today’s Dutch GDP in absolute terms; the Dutch GDP todaymake up 28% of GDP in the EU 27. In the birth rates mean less is spent on education, accounts for 4.75% of the current European GDP.Eurozone the increase will be 5.2 percentage and a smaller workforce should reduce 2 Steffen Ahrens. Fiscal Responses to the Financialpoints and total spending 29.5% of GDP. unemployment. Crisis. Kiel Institute for the World Economy Policy Brief No. 11/2009. 2
  3. 3. Allianz Demographic Pulse issue # 5 | March 2011Enormous proportions care combined will grow from approxi- Aging societies everywhereThis is one reason why increases in age- mately 10% of current GDP to 16% if Aging societies are either already a realityrelated public spending will vary consider- today’s regulations are maintained 6. or soon will be in many countries. The pro-ably in the EU and in some countries take The greater part of the increase will be portion of the population over age of 60 inon enormous proportions, albeit from very spent on healthcare. the German and Italian populations, whichdifferent baselines. In this respect the EU currently stands at around 26%, is set tocountries can be divided into three groups3. Asia will also be affected swell to one third of the population within• Countries with expected increases Aging is not limited to industrial countries; 15 years and to around 40% by 2050. Coun- in public spending of more than it also has an impact on the emerging Asian tries such as France, Sweden and the USA seven percentage points of GDP by economic powers such as South Korea, Tai- are aging somewhat slower but at an 2060: Greece, Spain, Slovenia, the wan, Singapore and China, and this impact appreciable rate. In Asia the two countries Netherlands and Ireland. is partly even greater, particularly in terms most affected are Japan and South Korea.• Countries with expected increases of speed. Although China has a relatively Japan is already the oldest society in the in public spending of four to seven young population at the moment, this will world, while South Korea is undergoing percentage points of GDP: Germany 4, change dramatically in the coming years. rapid aging. In China the process has start- the Czech Republic, Slovakia, For reasons that will be discussed later, ed somewhat later, but the country will Hungary and the UK. the birth rate has fallen from 5.5 children nevertheless age within a generation. The• Countries with expected increases per female in 1960 to just 1.8 today. At the social aging process is driven everywhere in public spending of less than four same time life expectancy has risen by an by rising life expectancy in combination percentage points of GDP: Austria, astonishing 28 years.7 Aging in China has with decreasing fertility. As a result, the France, Denmark, Italy, Bulgaria, thus set in during a much earlier phase of number of elderly in society is growing, Sweden and Poland. economic development than in Europe while the number of younger people is for example. The extent to which this will shrinking. The reasons for this develop-The increase in age-related public spending affect state spending is hard to predict, ment lie in the interplay between betteris not uniquely a European phenomenon; since both the pension and healthcare sys- healthcare, improved nutrition and higherit is worldwide, although the challenges tems are in a stage of early development standards of living.differ from country to country. or reform. At the moment China spends 2.7% of its GDP on pension payments.The USA’s healthcare problem 3 European Commission. The 2009 Ageing Report:The USA can expect a relatively favorable There are two pension systems in China: Economic and budgetary projections for the EU-27demographic trend, and for the most part one designed for employees in cities and Member States (2008–2060), European Economy 2/2009, p. 27.Social Security is designed to provide only the other for rural areas. However, less than 4 In the case of Germany, the projected increasea basic income. Nevertheless, the USA will half of workers in cities and just 12% of means that social security contributions wouldbe greatly affected. Healthcare is driving up workers in rural areas are covered.8 Thus, have to increase from just under 40 to just underpublic spending and is particularly affected most Chinese are not integrated in the 50% to keep public finances sustainable. Deutscheby an aging society because of its institu- pension system. Nor is the healthcare sys- Bundesbank 2009. Monthly Report July, p. 35. 5 George Magnus 2009. The Age of Aging. Johntional structure. Public spending has risen tem by any means available to all Chinese. Wiley & Sons, p. 131by 5% per annum since 1970, and if this Reforms of the rural pension system aim 6 Congress of the United States Congressionaltrend continues will reach 18% of GDP by to include the entire rural workforce by Budget Office. The Long-Term Budget Outlook.2050 5. This would be much higher than 2020. Age-dependent state expenditures August 2010 Revisionin other industrial countries with less in China will depend largely on which 7 United Nations. Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision Populationfavorable demographic trends. Other reforms are introduced and implemented. Databaseanalyses have come to similar conclusions. However, it is already clear that these 8 Heikki Oksanen 2010. The Chinese PensionThe US Congressional Budget Office has reforms and their design are among System: First Results on Assessing the Reformestimated that over the next 25 years US the most daunting social, economic and Options. European Economy Economic Papers 412,public spending on pensions and health- fiscal challenges facing China today. Data relate to 2008. 3
  4. 4. Allianz Demographic Pulse issue # 5 | March 2011 Fit for the future? Comparing the burden of pension systems Image © Eric Isselée, 2011 / China Greece Spain Japan Hungary Austria Bulgaria Italy France Croatia Germany USA Taiwan Great Britain Switzerland Netherlands Hong Kong Sweden Australia 0 low 2 Reform pressure 4 6 high 8 Source: Allianz Global Investors, Pension Sustainability Index 2009 The Pension Sustainability Index measures the sustainability of a pension system based on demographic development, pension system structure and the status of public finances. The countries in red are subject to the greatest reform pressure, while those in green have the most sustainable pension system.The lower fertility rate is also influenced by By the end of the 1990s rising life expec- introduced radical pension reforms. Typicalhigher standards of living as well as urban- tancy together with a falling retirement measures include raising the retirementization, better educational opportunities age led to an enormous increase in the age and applying new assessment criteria,and a growing employment rate for women. time people spend in retirement. The the chief aim being to make the public sys-The consequence is that the average age graph on page 2 illustrates the increase tems more sustainable and future-proof.of populations is increasing. An extreme in retirement time for men in the period However, this also means that pensionersexample is South Korea. In the past 50 years between 1970 and 2007. in the future will draw lower pensionthe average number of children per women payments than their predecessors. At thehas fallen from more than six to just over More time spent in retirement same time, and as a second part of pensionone, while life expectancy has increased In the industrialized countries people reform, capital-funded pension funds haveby more than 25 years. The average age spend around 20 years in retirement. Thus, been introduced or expanded.of the population is therefore expected to the relationship between retirement ageincrease from just under 30 in the mid- and life expectancy has been reversed In order to evaluate the extent to which1990s to around 50 by 2013. since the first statutory pension scheme countries are on the path toward a sustain- was introduced in Germany by Bismarck able pension system, Allianz Global InvestorsThis process influences state spending 1889. At the time, the retirement age was devised the Pension Sustainability several respects. With regard to state 70 while the average life expectancy was This index measures the sustainability ofpensions, more pensions, of course, mean just 45. This development has arisen as pension systems based on the interplay ofhigher pension payments and, because of the result of enormous social, medical and demographic development, the currentincreasing life expectance, they have to be social advances. And although widespread structure of the pension system and thepaid longer. At the same time the number diseases, such as obesity counterbalance health of public finances in the countryof people in gainful employment paying rising life expectancy, most experts believe under consideration. Various sub-indicatorsinto and financing the system is dwindling. that life expectancy will increase further, are subsumed in these categories, e.g.Moreover, it can be assumed that an aging continuing a trend in industrialized coun- current national debt, ongoing reforms,society will place greater demands on tries that began in 1840. retirement age, strength of capital-fundedhealth and care services. pension pillars and several other factors. Pension Sustainability Index These sub-indicators are weighted and The greatest increase in state spending used to derive a figure that expresses the is typically accounted for by payments into fiscal sustainability of the pension system the state pension system. In recent years and thus the residual reform pressure. nearly all industrialized countries have 4
  5. 5. Allianz Demographic Pulse issue # 5 | March 2011Australia and Sweden are sitting pretty as Control, but how? work process. The focus here is on elderlyfar as pension system sustainability is con- The aging of societies will place a huge workers and women, as reflected in recentcerned. China and Greece, by contrast, are burden on state finances, particularly as a heated debates about the retirement ageunder enormous pressure to make their consequence of increasing expenditures in German and France.pension systems fit for the future. for pensions, health and care. For this rea- son the main mechanism for controlling Second, there is the question as to whetherPension systems are highly complex these expenditures is to set up sustainable aging societies can be as innovative andarrangements. However, for all their and financially viable systems in these productive as younger societies. Definitivedifferences countries with a low reform areas. Many major reforms have already findings are lacking, but there is at leastpressure have one thing in common: they been implemented, though not to the evidence that elderly workers can be justcan point to a comparatively favorable same extent in every country. as productive as their younger counter-demographic development and relatively parts depending on the tasks at hand andlow national debt, as well as strong capital- An equally important factor is economic the composition of age-mixed teams. Asfunded pillars and thus balanced pension growth. The fiscal effects of aging are far as innovation is concerned, there is aincome. This pension design reduces the much easier to shoulder in a growing lack of robust evidence. However, it is con-burden on state finances. It also means economy than in a stagnating or shrinking ceivable that aging societies will requirethat individuals’ pension income is derived one. However, aging societies also have new kinds of products and services so thatfrom various sources. Thus, the overall risk potential effects on economic growth. Two entirely new markets develop, and agingis reduced, since the individual sources are main factors are at play. First, the number societies that prepare for them early willexposed to different risks. This is similar of employees decreases. This means that gain competitive the diversification principle for capital potentially less can be produced and theinvestments. economy grows at a slower pace. However, economic policies can counter this devel- opment by integrating more people in the Sustainable pension systems: the example of Sweden Sweden, alongside Australia, is the country with the most sustainable pension system, a prime example of the diversification of pension income among various pillars. The state pension system tries to establish equivalence between contributions and pension payments and is complemented by capital-funded reserve funds. In addition, part of social security contributions is invested in investment funds that the insured party can choose him/herself. At the same time, the vast majority of employees are covered by company pension funds. This design strikes a balance between the various pillars while ensuring the financial feasibility and sustainability of the system as a whole. The example of Sweden also shows that capital-funded pensions and a developed welfare state are not mutually exclusive and, in fact, can complement each other. 5
  6. 6. Allianz Demographic Pulse issue # 5 | March 2011The toolsAs we have seen, sustainable social sys- in the right direction in time, the state cantems and economic growth are the two maintain its determining role and atten-main tools for controlling the effects of tion can shift from the challenges of agingaging on state finances. If the course is set societies to the opportunities they offer.Editor: Dr. Alexander Börsch, Allianz, Senior Economist, International PensionsPublisher: Allianz SE, Königinstrasse 28, 80802 Munich, Germany | Claudia Mohr-Calliet, I Why does Allianz care about demography? Why does it matter to journalists and What are the benefits of Allianz As a global financial service provider, the public? Demographic Pulse? Allianz believes demographic change to Demographic change is challenging today’s Allianz Demographic Pulse is based on be of crucial importance. Identified as one societies in many ways: People are getting the latest research into various aspects of of the major megatrends, demographic older, and this raises the issue e.g. of long- demographic change. Conducted and change will hold the key to many upcoming term care and dementia. Furthermore in written by Allianz experts, it highlights social challenges, whether with regard the future there will be a significant decline current and globally relevant demographic to health, old-age provision, education, in the workforce in all of the world’s markets, data and provides an insight into their im- consumption or capital markets. triggering for example a challenge in pen- pact on worldwide economies and societies. sion funding. Only information, awareness To ensure up-to-date coverage of major devel- and discussion on the topic will help to opments in this field, Allianz Demographic change attitudes, behavior and situations, Pulse is published on a regular basis, thus so hopefully solve urgent needs and come providing ongoing and detailed information up with innovative solutions. about a major trend that is shaping the world we live in. More publications at: Do you have any comments, Allianz Group Economic Research & Corporate Development suggestions or questions? We look forward to your feedback! International Pensions at Allianz Global Investors Please contact: Claudia Mohr-Calliet, ++49 89 3800 18797 Allianz Knowledge Site assessments are, as always, subject to the disclaimer provided below.Cautionary note regarding forward-looking statements: The statements contained herein may include statements of future expectations and other forward-looking statements that are based on management’scurrent views and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertain-ties that could cause actual results, performance or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in such state-ments. In addition to statements which are forward-looking by reason of context, the words “may”, “will”, “should”, “expects”, “plans”, “intends”, “anticipates”, “believes”, “estimates”, “predicts”, “potential”, or“continue” and similar expressions identify forward-looking statements. Actual results, performance or events may differ materially from those in such statements due to, without limitation, (i) general economicconditions, including in particular economic conditions in the Allianz Group’s core business and core markets, (ii) performance of financial markets, including emerging markets, and including market volatility,liquidity and credit events (iii) the frequency and severity of insured loss events, including from natural catastrophes and including the development of loss expenses, (iv) mortality and morbidity levels and trends,(v) persistency levels, (vi) the extent of credit defaults, (vii) interest rate levels, (viii) currency exchange rates including the Euro/U.S. Dollar exchange rate, (ix) changing levels of competition, (x) changes in lawsand regulations, including monetary convergence and the European Monetary Union, (xi) changes in the policies of central banks and/or foreign governments, (xii) the impact of acquisitions, including relatedintegration issues, (xiii) reorganization measures, and (xiv) general competitive factors, in each case on a local, regional, national and/or global basis. Many of these factors may be more likely to occur, or morepronounced, as a result of terrorist activities and their consequences. The company assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statement.No duty to update: The company assumes no obligation to update any information contained herein. 6