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Game of Fraud Detection
with SQL and Machine Learning
Chris Saxon, Oracle & Abi Giles-Haigh, Chief Data Science Officer
The Iron Bank is
Going Bust!
Photo by Katie Harp on Unsplash
We need new ways
to solve an old problem…
SQL guy
Data Science
Girl
@ChrisRSaxon @Abi_Giles_Haigh
The Hand of the King
analysed fraud trxns
Causes of fraud
1. Value = 10M
2. Same value transfer
from/to the same house
SQL
desc got_transactions
Name Null? Type
-------------------- ----- -------------
SQL
TRANSACTION_CATEGORY VARCHAR2(26)
TRANSACTION_AMOUNT NUMBER(38,2)
TRANSACTION_TYPE VARCHAR2(26)
TRANSACTION_DATE DATE
TRANS_ID NUMBER(10)
FRAUD NUMBER(38)
SQL
SENDER_ID VARCHAR2(26)
SENDER_NAME VARCHAR2(100)
SENDER_HOUSE VARCHAR2(100)
SENDER_GENDER VARCHAR2(26)
SENDER_NOBILITY VARCHAR2(26)
SENDER_HOME_OWNER VARCHAR2(26)
SENDER_INCOME NUMBER(38)
SQL
RECEIVER_ID VARCHAR2(26)
RECEIVER_NAME VARCHAR2(100)
RECEIVER_HOUSE VARCHAR2(100)
RECEIVER_GENDER VARCHAR2(26)
RECEIVER_NOBILITY VARCHAR2(26)
RECEIVER_HOME_OWNER VARCHAR2(26)
RECEIVER_INCOME NUMBER(38)
SQL
TDT TAMOUNT TTYPE SENDER_HOUSE RECEIVER_HOUSE
----------- -------------- ---------- --------------- ---------------
04-JAN-2017 257,657.85 CASH_IN House Tyrell House Lannister
03-FEB-2017 105,861.07 TRANSFER House Arryn House Stark
06-FEB-2017 2,410.38 DEBIT House Tyrell House Baratheon
20-FEB-2017 322.94 PAYMENT House Arryn House Stark
21-FEB-2017 1,559.41 CASH_OUT House Tyrell House Targaryen
04-MAY-2017 1,624.57 CASH_IN House Arryn House Baratheon
07-JUN-2017 2,070.47 CASH_OUT Night's Watch House Arryn
22-JUN-2017 3,392.80 DEBIT House Tully House Arryn
03-JUL-2017 1,767.72 PAYMENT Wildling House Lannister
16-JUL-2017 56,125.55 TRANSFER House Greyjoy House Stark
Rule 1
select t.*
from got_transactions t
where transaction_amount = 10000000
Rule 2
"dirty"
money
"clean"
money
transfer
Of course the real world is more like…
"dirty"
money
"clean"
money
or…
"dirty"
money
"clean"
money
SQL
case
when transaction_type in (
'CASH_IN', 'TRANSFER', 'CASH_OUT'
) and max ( trans_id ) over ( … ) is not null
then 1 -- FRAUD, it's FRAUD!
else 0
end
SQL
case
when transaction_type in (
'CASH_IN', 'TRANSFER', 'CASH_OUT'
) and max ( trans_id ) over ( … ) is not null
then 1 -- FRAUD, it's FRAUD!
else 0
end
SQL
max ( trans_id ) over (
partition by sender_house, receiver_house,
transaction_amount
)
SQL
max ( trans_id ) over (
partition by sender_house, receiver_house,
transaction_amount
order by transaction_date
)
SQL
max ( trans_id ) over (
partition by sender_house, receiver_house,
transaction_amount
order by transaction_date
range between unbounded preceding and
current row
)
All previous and itself!
SQL
max ( trans_id ) over (
partition by sender_house, receiver_house,
transaction_amount
order by transaction_date
range between 90 preceding and
1 preceding
)
Excludes today…
SQL
max ( trans_id ) over (
partition by sender_house, receiver_house,
transaction_amount
order by transaction_date
range between 90 preceding and
1/1440 preceding
)
Previous minute
Multiple transfers same amount
count (*) over (
partition by sender_house, receiver_house,
transaction_amount
order by transaction_date
range between 90 preceding and
1/1440 preceding
)
So how successful are we?
Error rate ~1%
Fraud rate ~1%
We did it!
SENDER_HOUSE RECEIVER_HOUSE TRX#
None None 321
Night's Watch Night's Watch 216
House Greyjoy House Greyjoy 73
House Baratheon House Baratheon 71
House Lannister House Lannister 57
https:/gameofthrones.fandom.com/wiki/Jon_Snow/ This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under CC BY-SA
We're still losing money
Image by 1820796 from Pixabay
But…
… and the Baratheons are
complaining their trxns are
blocked
WTF?!
Theory
You've tested positive for
a rare disease
Image by rawpixel from Pixabay
Theory
It affects ~ 1 in 10,000 people
Theory
The test is
~ 99% accurate
Photo by NeONBRAND on Unsplash
Theory
Are you scared?
Reality
Sick (100) Healthy (999,900)
TestResults
Sick
99
Healthy
989,901
Reality
Sick (100) Healthy (999,900)
TestResults
Sick
99
Healthy
1 989,901
Reality
Sick (100) Healthy (999,900)
TestResults
Sick
99 9,999
Healthy
1 989,901
100x
Classifying events:
confusion matrix
Confusion Matrix
Actual Values
Positive (1) Negative (0)
PredictedValues
Positive (1)
True positive False positive
Negative (0)
False negative True negative
So how do our rules do?
Error rate ~1%
Fraud rate ~1%
Mark everything "NOT FRAUD"!
SQL: Results
Confusion Matrix
Actual Values
Positive (1) Negative (0)
PredictedValues
Positive (1)
80
Negative (0)
115,519
Confusion Matrix
Actual Values
Positive (1) Negative (0)
PredictedValues
Positive (1)
80 872
Negative (0)
1,203 115,519
15x
10x
So how can we do better?
Machine Learning!
Machine Learning
Supervised: Labels 
Unsupervised: No labels 
SQL
TDT TAMOUNT TTYPE SENDER_HOUSE RECEIVER_HOUSE FRAUD
----------- -------------- ---------- --------------- --------------- -----
04-JAN-2017 257,657.85 CASH_IN House Tyrell House Lannister 1
03-FEB-2017 105,861.07 TRANSFER House Arryn House Stark 0
06-FEB-2017 2,410.38 DEBIT House Tyrell House Baratheon 0
20-FEB-2017 322.94 PAYMENT House Arryn House Stark 0
21-FEB-2017 1,559.41 CASH_OUT House Tyrell House Targaryen 0
04-MAY-2017 1,624.57 CASH_IN House Arryn House Baratheon 0
07-JUN-2017 2,070.47 CASH_OUT Night's Watch House Arryn 1
22-JUN-2017 3,392.80 DEBIT House Tully House Arryn 0
03-JUL-2017 1,767.72 PAYMENT Wildling House Lannister 0
16-JUL-2017 56,125.55 TRANSFER House Greyjoy House Stark 0
Machine Learning: Split the data!
Train Data (80%)
Test Data (20%)
got_transactions SAMPLE(80)
seed(124)
… Minus …
Supervised Modeling: Settings
Step 2: Setting for the algorithm…..
INSERT INTO MODEL_SETTINGS (setting_name, setting_value)
VALUES ('ALGO_NAME', 'ALGO_NAIVE_BAYES');
INSERT INTO MODEL_SETTINGS (setting_name, setting_value)
VALUES ('PREP_AUTO', 'ON');
Supervised Modeling: Modeling
Step 3: Build the model….
DBMS_DATA_MINING.CREATE_MODEL
Supervised Modeling: Modeling
Step 2: Build the model….
model_name => 'GOT_FRAUD_MODEL',
mining_function => dbms_data_mining.classification,
data_table_name => 'got_transactions_train',
case_id_column_name => 'trans_id',
target_column_name => 'fraud',
settings_table_name => 'MODEL_SETTINGS',
);
Supervised Modeling: Apply the model
Step 4: Apply the model….
DBMS_DATA_MINING.APPLY
Supervised Learning: Apply the model
Step 4: Apply the model….
model_name => 'GOT_FRAUD_MODEL',
data_table_name => 'got_transactions_test',
case_id_column_name => 'trans_id',
results_table_name => 'FRAUD_RESULTS',
);
ML: Results
Error rate ~3%
Fraud rate ~1%
Worse than rules?!
Create the confusion!
DBMS_DATA_MINING.COMPUTE_CONFUSION_MATRIX
The code…
accuracy => v_accuracy,
apply_result_table_name => 'FRAUD_NB_RESULTS',
target_table_name => 'got_transactions_test',
case_id_column_name => 'trans_id',
target_column_name => 'FRAUD',
confusion_matrix_table_name => 'Fraud_NB_confusion_matrix',
score_column_name => 'PREDICTION',
score_criterion_column_name => 'COST',
score_criterion_type => 'COST'
);
Confusion Matrix
Actual Values
Positive (1) Negative (0)
PredictedValues
Positive (1)
832 4,566
Negative (0)
451 111,825
0.5x
3x
SQL
TRANS_ID PREDICTION PROBABILITY
---------- ---------- --------------
731418 0 0.999999999985
731418 1 0.000000000015
1010855 0 0.999999999998
1010855 1 0.000000000002
1013297 0 1.000000000000
1013297 1 0.000000000000
1153504 0 0.999999999496
1153504 1 0.000000000504
select trans_id,
row_number () over (
partition by trans_id
order by probability desc
) rn
from fraud_nb_results
with ranks as (
select trans_id,
row_number () over (
partition by trans_id
order by prediction desc
) rn
from fraud_nb_results
)
select * from ranks where rn = 1
SENDER_HOUSE RECEIVER_HOUSE TRX#
House Lannister House Lannister 421
House Arryn House Arryn 41
Night's Watch Night's Watch 38
House Greyjoy House Greyjoy 35
None None 28
It's the Lannisters!
https://guff.com/this-theory-about-the-lannister-siblings-changes-everything-we-thought-we-knew-about-game-of-thrones
Can we reduce the errors?
Combine SQL & ML!
Data Science Approach
Machine Learning
SQL Rules
The seven kingdoms….
select gt.trans_id,
greatest (
ml.fraud_flag, gt.fraud_flag
) fraud_flag
from got_transactions_rules_test gt
join got_transactions_ml_test_results ml
on gt.trans_id = ml.trans_id
Join Rules & ML
Confusion Matrix
Actual Values
Positive (1) Negative (0)
PredictedValues
Positive (1)
898 5,073
Negative (0)
385 111,318
0.4x
5x
Confusion Matrix: Final comparison
Actual Values
Positive (1) Negative (0)
PredictedValues
Positive (1)
SQL: 80
ML: 832
SQL + ML: 898
SQL: 872
ML: 4,566
SQL + ML: 5,073
Negative (0)
SQL: 1,203
ML: 451
SQL + ML: 385
SQL: 115,519
ML: 111,825
SQL + ML: 111,318
Deterministic vs Probabilistic
Deterministic
if <rule 1> then …
if <rule 2> then …
if <rule 3> then …
else …
How most people view probabilities
% chance of an event
0% 100%50%
How most people view probabilities
% chance of an event
0% 100%50%
Impossible CertainToss-up
How most people view probabilities
% chance of an event
0% 100%50%
Impossible CertainToss-up
Almost certainNearly impossible
SQL rules vs ML
• Deterministic -> guaranteed
to flag; easy to test/verify
• Needs to be told rules
• Need domain knowledge
• Existing skills
• You KNOW why trx flagged
• Probabilistic -> don't know
the outcome
• Can find rules
• Might miss "obvious" fraud
• New skills & approaches
• Why flagged? ¯_(ツ)_/¯
The real world
• What's the impact of false positive & false negative?
• How much effort is it to resolve misclassification?
• How high is the false positive rate?
• How do explain the results if someone wants to know?
Which one are you ready for?
www.verticecloud.com
Q&A
@VerticeCloud
Connect@VerticeCloud.com
SQL Guy: Chris Saxon @ChrisRSaxon
ML Girl: Abi Giles-Haigh @Abi_Giles_Haigh

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