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![A growing concern about jobs
“If you were to ask me, from all the world polling Gallup has
done for more than 75 years, what would fix the world -- what
would suddenly create worldwide peace, global wellbeing,
and the next extraordinary advancements in human
development, I would say the immediate appearance of 1.8
billion jobs -- formal jobs. […] We can’t see that quest for
good jobs as an internal skirmish between warring political
ideologies. It’s an international war” (Jim Clifton, Chairman
and CEO of Gallup, author of The Coming Jobs War.
19
Focus on Jobs
](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/g20inretrospectandinprospect-190820181640/75/G20-in-retrospect-and-in-prospect-19-2048.jpg)
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G20 in retrospect and in prospect
The document presents a comprehensive overview of the G20, detailing its origins, membership, and evolving roles in global economic governance since its inception in 1999, notably following the Asian financial crisis. Key focus areas include financial stability, sustainable development, and responses to global challenges such as the 2008 financial crisis, with the World Bank actively engaging in initiatives connected to financial inclusion, food security, and infrastructure. The G20 aims to foster consensus and cooperative policy-making to address the complex dynamics of a multi-polar world economy.
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G20 in retrospect and in prospect
- 1. G20 in Retrospectand Prospect Mahmoud Mohieldin* Managing Director The World Bank Presentation to the School of International Public Affairs Columbia University January 25, 2012 *Disclaimer: The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of The World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work.
- 2. Key questions Whatis the G20 and who are its members? What is the role of the G20? What is the G20 focusing on? What is the contribution of the World Bank? Introduction 2
- 3. Follows inthe footsteps of the G6, G7, G8 (a leaders’ forum established in 1975). The G20 was setup in the wake of the Asian financial crisis as a global forum for Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors to discuss measures to promote financial stability and sustainable development. Representatives account for about 85 percent of the world economy. First meeting took place in Berlin in December 1999 (chaired by Paul Martin, former Finance Minister of Canada). Origins of the G20 3
- 4. Additional invitees: •France invitedEthiopia, Singapore, Spain, UAE (Chair of the GCC), and Equatorial Guinea (Chair of the African Union). •Mexico invited Colombia, Cambodia, Chile, Equatorial Guinea (Chair of the African Union), and Spain. 1. Argentina 2. Australia 3. Brazil 4. Canada 5. China 6. France 7. Germany 8. India 9. Indonesia 10. Italy Who are the G20 4 11. Japan 12. Mexico 13. Russia 14. Saudi Arabia 15. South Africa 16. Republic of Korea 17. Turkey 18. United Kingdom 19. United States of America 20. European Union/ECB • International Monetary Fund • World Bank • Financial Stability Board • Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development • United Nations • International Labor Organization • World Trade Organization
- 5. 1999-2001 Canada 2002 India 2003Mexico 2004 Germany 2005 China 2006 Australia 2007 South Africa 2008 Brazil 2009 United Kingdom 2010 Korea 2011 France 2012 Mexico The G20 Chairs 5
- 6. A. Multi-polar world EMEs accounting for rapidly increasing shares of output, growth, trade and investment. Trend accentuated in the outlook, where 2012 Global Economic Prospects highlights weakening in advanced economies, while growth slows but remains strong in EMEs. Evolution of the G20 6 Two key factors driving the importance of the G20 in international policy making:
- 7. Evolution of theG20 (cont.) 7 An increasingly multi-polar pattern of global growth
- 8. 8 An increasingly multi-polarpattern of global trade Evolution of the G20 (cont.)
- 9. 9 Source: World Bank,Global Economic Prospects, 2012 In weakening outlook, EMEs sustain global growth Evolution of the G20 (cont.)
- 10. B. Global financialcrisis starting in 2008 The US called a meeting of G20 leaders in November 2008, seeking to agree measures to stabilize financial markets, stimulate demand and avoid protectionism. The important role of EMEs was recognized in addressing global challenges of the international economy and financial system. At September 2009 G20 Summit, leaders announced that the G20 would replace the G8 as the premier forum for discussing international economic issues. 10 Evolution of the G20 (cont.)
- 11. Governance and Role Rotating Presidency (no permanent secretariat). Consensus based, informal. Agenda setting by the presiding presidency. 1. Working Groups 2. Finance and Central Bank Deputies 3. Sherpa Stream (including development) 4. Ministerial Summit 5. Leaders Summit Arduously negotiated Communiquès. Commitments reached are political and provide an indication of shared views and approaches. 11 Evolution of the G20 (cont.)
- 12. Highlights of thegrowing agendas at the G20 Summits Washington (2008) – Stabilize financial markets and restore growth (Washington Action Plan). London (2009) – Implementation of the Washington Action Plan, strengthening the financial system. Pittsburgh (2009) – From crisis to recovery. Toronto (2010) – Framework for strong, sustainable and balanced growth. Seoul (2010) – Seoul Development Consensus (9 pillars) Cannes (2011) – Expanded list, overtaken by euro crisis. Key Focus Areas of the G20 12
- 13. Korea Presidency 2010 Ensuring global economic recovery Framework for strong, sustainable, and balanced global growth (Seoul Action Plan). International financial institution reform Financial sector reforms Fighting protectionism and promoting trade and investment Financial inclusion Energy Seoul Development Consensus for Shared Growth Key Focus Areas of the G20 (cont.) 13
- 14. Seoul Consensus Focuson economic growth needed to reach MDGs. Global development partnership – development assistance, transparent and accountable. Prioritize global or regional systemic issues. Private sector participation essential. G20 to complement, not duplicate other global actors. Outcome orientation - focus on tangible measures. The nine key pillars most in need of attention within developing countries: 1) infrastructure, 2) private investment and job creation, 3) human resource development, 4) trade, 5) financial inclusion, 6) resilient growth , 7) food security, 8) domestic resource mobilization 9) knowledge sharing. Key Focus Areas of the G20 (cont.) 14
- 15. French Presidency 2011 Framework for Strong, Sustainable and Balanced Growth Reform of the International Monetary System Financial sector regulation Commodity price volatility Food security Infrastructure financing Financial inclusion Climate change financing Anticorruption Key Focus Areas of the G20 (cont.) 15
- 16. Framework for Strong,Sustainable and Balanced Growth Agreement on the technical and definitional aspects of the Mutual Assessment Process in place, turning to consideration of member policies. Derive base case assessment of economic prospects based on members’ inputs. Assess progress with respect to earlier policy commitments. Undertake external sustainability assessment for the seven member economies with the largest and most persistent imbalances (China, France Germany, India, Japan, UK, US). Identification of additional policy measures - Cannes Action Plan. 16 Key Focus Areas of the G20 (cont.)
- 17. Cannes Action Planfor Growth and Jobs All G20 members commit to keep global markets open and resist trade protectionism. All will take whatever measures necessary to preserve the stability of banking systems and financial markets, and to ensure that banks are adequately capitalized. All will ensure that the IMF has adequate resources. 17 Key Focus Areas of the G20 (cont.)
- 18. Country commitments underthe Cannes Action Plan United States will implement tax reforms for jobs and investment. Japan will quickly implement reconstruction measures. Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Germany, Korea, and Indonesia, where public finance are relatively strong, will let automatic stabilizers work and will take additional discretionary fiscal measures as deemed necessary. Emerging market economies with external surpluses commit to boosting domestic demand and move more rapidly toward market-determined exchange rates. 18 Key Focus Areas of the G20 (cont.)
- 19. A growing concernabout jobs “If you were to ask me, from all the world polling Gallup has done for more than 75 years, what would fix the world -- what would suddenly create worldwide peace, global wellbeing, and the next extraordinary advancements in human development, I would say the immediate appearance of 1.8 billion jobs -- formal jobs. […] We can’t see that quest for good jobs as an internal skirmish between warring political ideologies. It’s an international war” (Jim Clifton, Chairman and CEO of Gallup, author of The Coming Jobs War. 19 Focus on Jobs
- 20. In timesof rapid technological progress, entire sectors may be affected. The global financial crisis resulted in massive job losses in both emerging and industrial countries. Recent political events highlight the discontent of educated youth whose job opportunities fall short of their expectations. Around the world, there is anxiety about the pace of job creation and the prospect of a global fight for jobs. 20 Focus on Jobs (cont.)
- 21. Good jobs inpractice Living standards. Jobs that make a greater contribution to poverty reduction; female employment; jobs with greater potential for growth in earnings and satisfaction. Productivity. New jobs whose productivity is above the country’s average; jobs with greater productive externalities; jobs with potential for productivity growth. Social cohesion. Jobs that convey a greater sense of dignity and belonging in society; jobs that do not conflict with human rights; jobs providing voice and encouraging participation. 21 Focus on Jobs – WDR 2013
- 22. Diverse jobs agendas Sub-Saharan Africa: increasing earnings from farming and creating enough off-farm jobs (all informal). South Asia: creating enough productive jobs to absorb one milion new entrants to the labor market every month. Middle East: finding alternatives for educated (not necessarily skilled) youth who aspire to civil servant jobs. East Asia: handling massive destruction and reallocation of jobs in low- end manufacturing as wages increase. Latin America: rebuilding a social compact that requires formalization without undermining efficiency. Eastern Europe: coping with a jobless recovery amidst an aging labor force. 22 Focus on Jobs – WDR 2013 (cont.) Country, regional and global level?
- 23. Priorities under theMexican Presidency – streamlining and prioritization Economic stabilization and structural reforms as foundations for growth and employment. Strengthening the financial system and fostering financial inclusion to promote economic growth. Improving the international financial architecture in an interconnected world (Finance Track). Enhancing food security and addressing commodity price volatility. Promoting sustainable development, green growth and the fight against climate change. The G20 going forward 23
- 24. The G20 goingforward (cont.) 24
- 25. Agenda setting:Helps set the agenda, coordinate policies, distribute tasks across existing institutions, and build consensus. Convergence of ideas: Brings together leaders, Finance Ministers, Central Bank Governors, and other officials and interested parties to share views and broaden understanding on various key challenges. Part of the mosaic of international economic governance: Complements other multilateral institutions for international economic cooperation. What can be expected from the G20? 25
- 26. Bridge from G20to G187 Represent the interests of the non-G20 developing countries in the forum (G187). Highlight development perspectives, and impacts on the poor. Substantive contributions on the development stream. Capacity building – Collaboration with the Korean Development School The Role of the World Bank 26
- 27. Main points ofWorld Bank engagement with the G20 1. Mutual Assessment Process (MAP)/Framework: Support efforts to encourage balanced growth in the Emerging Markets and Developing Economies. 2. Food Security: RBZ plan in Jan 6, 2011 Financial Times: (transparency on stocks, code of conduct on humanitarian food exports, humanitarian reserve placement, weather forecasting capacity, Social Safety Nets, quick disbursing crisis support, risk management products). The Role of the World Bank (cont.) 27
- 28. 3. Financial Inclusion:The World Bank Group, including CGAP and the IFC, is a leading implementing partner for the G20 Financial Inclusion Action Plan (the G20 Global Partnership for Financial Inclusion was launched in South Korea in December 2010). 4. Financial Regulation: FSAPs, FIRST initiative, capacity building for regulators, new annual report on Global Financial Development (expected Sept 2012). 5. Climate Finance: Coordinated the preparation of : “Mobilizing Climate Finance: A Paper prepared at the request of G20 Finance Ministers” (October 6, 2011). The Role of the World Bank (cont.) 28
- 29. 6. Local currencybond markets: Helped articulate action plan through the “Local Currency Bond Markets in Emerging Markets: A Contribution to the Stability of the International Monetary System” (April 2011) 7. Infrastructure: Working with regional development banks, identified infrastructure gaps and recommended options to mobilize financing (scale up Africa regional integration). The Role of the World Bank (cont.) 29
- 30.
Editor's Notes
- #5 The host governments usually invite additional countries, whether to represent particular regions or assuage complaining neighbors. So there are usually about 25 nations present, plus the heads of international organizations such as the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund and the United Nations. (The European Union has the most seats, usually with six or seven countries as well as representatives of the president of the European Council, the presidency country and the European Commission.) The countries around the table account for about 85 percent of global GDP.
- #12 Troika
- #18 Specific commitments include: - China committed to rebalance demand toward domestic consumption, promote market-based interest rate reform, and move further toward capital account convertibility. The G-20 welcomes China's determination to increase exchange rate flexibility consistent with underlying market fundamentals. - Saudi Arabia commits to helping stabilize oil markets in support of the global economy. - All G-20 members commit to keep global markets open and resist trade protectionism. Relevant Links U.S., Canada and Africa Business International Organisations - Many G-20 members committed to implement structural reforms to boost long-term growth potential and enhance job growth prospects. - Countries with large current account surpluses commit to boost domestic sources of growth by implementing measures to increase growth of consumption and investment as a share of GDP. - All G-20 members committed to full and timely implementation of financial sector reforms, including Basel II, II.5, and III along the agreed timelines.
- #19 Specific commitments include: - China committed to rebalance demand toward domestic consumption, promote market-based interest rate reform, and move further toward capital account convertibility. The G-20 welcomes China's determination to increase exchange rate flexibility consistent with underlying market fundamentals. - Saudi Arabia commits to helping stabilize oil markets in support of the global economy. - All G-20 members commit to keep global markets open and resist trade protectionism. Relevant Links U.S., Canada and Africa Business International Organisations - Many G-20 members committed to implement structural reforms to boost long-term growth potential and enhance job growth prospects. - Countries with large current account surpluses commit to boost domestic sources of growth by implementing measures to increase growth of consumption and investment as a share of GDP. - All G-20 members committed to full and timely implementation of financial sector reforms, including Basel II, II.5, and III along the agreed timelines.
- #20 Specific commitments include: - China committed to rebalance demand toward domestic consumption, promote market-based interest rate reform, and move further toward capital account convertibility. The G-20 welcomes China's determination to increase exchange rate flexibility consistent with underlying market fundamentals. - Saudi Arabia commits to helping stabilize oil markets in support of the global economy. - All G-20 members commit to keep global markets open and resist trade protectionism. Relevant Links U.S., Canada and Africa Business International Organisations - Many G-20 members committed to implement structural reforms to boost long-term growth potential and enhance job growth prospects. - Countries with large current account surpluses commit to boost domestic sources of growth by implementing measures to increase growth of consumption and investment as a share of GDP. - All G-20 members committed to full and timely implementation of financial sector reforms, including Basel II, II.5, and III along the agreed timelines.
- #21 Specific commitments include: - China committed to rebalance demand toward domestic consumption, promote market-based interest rate reform, and move further toward capital account convertibility. The G-20 welcomes China's determination to increase exchange rate flexibility consistent with underlying market fundamentals. - Saudi Arabia commits to helping stabilize oil markets in support of the global economy. - All G-20 members commit to keep global markets open and resist trade protectionism. Relevant Links U.S., Canada and Africa Business International Organisations - Many G-20 members committed to implement structural reforms to boost long-term growth potential and enhance job growth prospects. - Countries with large current account surpluses commit to boost domestic sources of growth by implementing measures to increase growth of consumption and investment as a share of GDP. - All G-20 members committed to full and timely implementation of financial sector reforms, including Basel II, II.5, and III along the agreed timelines.
- #22 Specific commitments include: - China committed to rebalance demand toward domestic consumption, promote market-based interest rate reform, and move further toward capital account convertibility. The G-20 welcomes China's determination to increase exchange rate flexibility consistent with underlying market fundamentals. - Saudi Arabia commits to helping stabilize oil markets in support of the global economy. - All G-20 members commit to keep global markets open and resist trade protectionism. Relevant Links U.S., Canada and Africa Business International Organisations - Many G-20 members committed to implement structural reforms to boost long-term growth potential and enhance job growth prospects. - Countries with large current account surpluses commit to boost domestic sources of growth by implementing measures to increase growth of consumption and investment as a share of GDP. - All G-20 members committed to full and timely implementation of financial sector reforms, including Basel II, II.5, and III along the agreed timelines.
- #23 Specific commitments include: - China committed to rebalance demand toward domestic consumption, promote market-based interest rate reform, and move further toward capital account convertibility. The G-20 welcomes China's determination to increase exchange rate flexibility consistent with underlying market fundamentals. - Saudi Arabia commits to helping stabilize oil markets in support of the global economy. - All G-20 members commit to keep global markets open and resist trade protectionism. Relevant Links U.S., Canada and Africa Business International Organisations - Many G-20 members committed to implement structural reforms to boost long-term growth potential and enhance job growth prospects. - Countries with large current account surpluses commit to boost domestic sources of growth by implementing measures to increase growth of consumption and investment as a share of GDP. - All G-20 members committed to full and timely implementation of financial sector reforms, including Basel II, II.5, and III along the agreed timelines.