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Future.org.final

The document summarizes a presentation on the role of cities in creating Australia's future and challenges they face. It discusses two main challenges - environmental issues from climate change and resource constraints, and maintaining population health. Other topics covered include urban renewal as an economic accelerator, megatrends shaping the future, importance of cities to the economy, themes for building resilient cities, and the need for innovative planning approaches to address these issues.

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Futures Forum Series, Melbourne, 27th February 2014 Darren Bilsborough, Director rIGAR Group Adjunct Professor of Sustainability, Curtin University The Role of Cities in Creating Australia’s Future Future Urban Renewal as an Economic Accelerator
2 Challenges Australian cities face two challenges and our future urban developments need to adapt to these challenges. Firstly there is the environmental challenges of climate change and resource constraints. Secondly each city faces increasing pressure to maintain the physical and psychological well-being of their occupants in the face of growing population and health risks.
More from less. Depleting natural resources and increasing demand for those resources through economic and population growth will see a focus on resource use efficiency. Going, going, gone. Reference to Ecological Habitat, Biodiversity loss and rising GHG’s The Silk Highway. Recognizing the emerging economic powers in BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India and China) Forever Young. OECD countries are ageing, with lifestyle and diet related health problems, in addition to a reduced tax payer base Great expectations. A rising demand for experiences and services over products but in poor countries the expectations are far more basic (food, water, shelter, etc) Virtually here. Computing power and memory storage are improving rapidly, with many more devices connected to the internet. A megatrend is based on the aggregation and synthesis of multiple trends. CSIRO “Megatrends”
“Megashocks” Fore-sighting indicates a number of risks that will require a strategic science response World Economic Forum Megashocks Map 2009 • asset price collapse • slowing Chinese economy • oil and gas price spikes • extreme climate change related weather • pandemic • biodiversity loss • terrorism • nanotechnology risks.
Future Health Liability – Unfunded Health Budgets
The Economic Relevance of our Cities It is our cities that power our economy, producing at least 80 per cent of our GDP and housing almost eight out of every ten of us
“Cities aren’t structures; cities are people … the strength that comes from human collaboration is the central truth behind civilisation’s Success and the primary reason why cities exist”. Edward Glaeser, Triumph of the City, 2011 “Today our greatest competitive advantageous are the qualities that attract the best and brightest from around the world to come here”. Michael Bloomberg, Mayor of New York City
“4 themes to building good cities” or resilient towns and regions 1. Economic development and diversity: employment, Indigenous engagement, entrepreneurship, trade and economic supply chains. 2. Infrastructure (social and physical): health, education, justice, transport, waste, power and water 3. Planning and PlaceMaking: the creation of place - affordable, liveable, amenable, home. 4. Governance: regional, state and federal.
Infrastructure (social and physical): health, education, justice, transport, waste, power and water The ‘body’ and ‘organs’ of a city, town or region relies on its essential physical and social infrastructure services; its ongoing operations need ‘sustenance’ in the form of energy, good metabolism, and the social infrastructure that enables a healthy, innovative, fair and secure place to live. In support of Place InfrastructureInfrastructure
Planning and PlaceMaking: the creation of place — affordable, liveable, amenable, home. People live in cities, towns and regions for lots of reasons; these might be historical, for employment or to maintain or pursue their relationships. But people stay for their sense of place — that is, the way the area makes them feel and the ability it gives them to connect with their surroundings, whether physical or metaphysical. Planning systems are set up to enable this to happen beyond individual project plans. The key is good planning Planning and PlaceMakingPlanning and PlaceMaking
Temporal scale of planning 0 5 10 15 20 25 Year Urban landuse planning Public service pricing Solid waste management Transportation planning Purchase of utility goods Industrial development strategy Urban infrastructure development Temporal scale of a council’s decision making. (a) Temporal scale of planning (Dr X Bai, CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems) Temporal Scale of Planning
Temporal scale of environmental implications of decisions 1 10 100 1000 Year Urban landuse planning Public service pricing Solid waste management Transportation planning Purchase of utility goods Industrial development strategy Urban infrastructure development Temporal scale of a council’s decision making. b) Temporal scale of environmental impacts of decisions (Dr X Bai) Temporal Scale of Implications
Binding People to Place The Knight Foundation-Gallup Soul of the Community project (John & James 2009) determined that communities with higher proportions of attached citizens (that is, people with high loyalty to and passion for their communities) had stronger GDP (gross domestic product) growth over the past five years than those with lower proportions of attached citizens. After interviewing close to 28,000 people in 26 communities over two years, the study found that three main qualities bind people to place: social offerings (such as entertainment venues and places to meet), openness (how welcoming a place is) and the area’s aesthetics (its physical beauty and green spaces). These communities show stronger population growth and other desirable vitality attributes.
So...Where to from here? The Next Wave?
Source: Scientific American, September 2011
What Constitutes a Better City or Precinct Scale Development? What should we measure? • One that is economically resilient and productive • One that attracts business and financial capital • One that is resource efficient and waste free • One that attracts people and enriches social capital • One that binds people to place • One that is socially inclusive (safe, just, affordable) • One in which all stakeholders can engage in its future • A place that promotes the health and well being of its occupants:- Land Use and Transport Planning
A new model for innovative planning is required at a precinct scale within our urban environments to provide a means for solving and resolving the plethora of problems we face in the years to come, including- rising health costs, a continued decline in productivity, adaptation to future climate change and decreasing biodiversity. Innovative planning is not about trying to predict the future, but instead to conceive of how things might be different, and to identify policies, strategies and infrastructure solutions that can readily adapt to change. Planning Responses New Ways Needed – A Change in Direction
“If you’re looking for a big opportunity look for a big problem” ANON Precinct Scale Development
SOLVING THE RIGHT PROBLEMS OUTCOME FOCUSSED
The following is an extract from the Commonwealth Governments “Australia in the Asian Century” White Paper, October 2012. Using creativity and design-based thinking to solve complex problems is a distinctive Australian strength that can help to meet the emerging challenges of this century. This points towards a tremendous opportunity for Australian businesses responsible for the design and delivery of solutions for the built environment to adopt a model, which allows for a logical assemblage of thinking and expertise which can be integrated to produce superior city and precinct scale development outcomes measured against increased amenity and improved liveability, productivity and sustainability indicators. Planning Responses New Ways Needed – A Change in Direction
URBAN INNOVATION In seeking a definition for Urban Innovation I came across the following which was proposed in a book from 2002 entitled “Critical Reflections of Cities in South-East Asia” which in turn referenced a 1998 book authored by Peter Hall entitled “Cities in Civilisation”. Urban Innovation; The marriage of culture and technology to solve urban (spatial) problems. Or more simply it is in the title of another book “Making Cities Work: The Dynamics of Urban Innovation” (1980) So perhaps for Urban Innovation it can be defined as; Urban Innovation; Integrated design solutions which maximise value to built form and minimise risk to future urban resilience
 Future Urban Form – Green Buildings (next steps) Planning Responses New Ways Needed – A Change in Direction
What are the next drivers for change? The challenge is to define our local responses to Global Challenges Green Buildings
Building Integrated PV Building Integrated PV (BIPV)
Consumption of Non-Renewable Resources What does this mean? No More New Buildings?......Probably the “right” answer but this is just not practical We must encourage the market to Refurbish and Reuse and if new buildings are required (and they will be required due to increasing population and growth demands in the short to medium term) we need them to be developed using a high proportion of renewable resources and to operate on zero waste principals including carbon neutrality.
 Future Urban Form – Housing Affordability Planning Responses New Ways Needed – A Change in Direction
Affordability Takes Many Forms
0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 2.00 Houston Atlanta Dallas-FortWorth Miami Detroit Minneapolis-St.Paul Phoenix Philadelphia KansasCity Tampa St.Louis Cleveland Pittsburgh LosAngeles Denver Seattle Portland Cincinnati Milwaukee SanDiego Washington,DC Boston SanFrancisco Chicago Baltimore NewYork Honolulu DegreeofSprawl 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% TransportationasPercentofExpenditures Degree of Sprawl Transportation as Percent of Expenditures Sprawling Places Are More Expensive
Density vs Private Transport C W A y = 403914x-0.8377 R2 = 0.8483 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Urban Density (persons/ha) PrivatePassengerTransportEnergyUseperPerson(MJ) US Cities (diamond) European Cities (X) Asian Cities (asterisk) Canadian Cities (cross) Australian Cities (square) New Zealand Cities (dot) A = Auckland W = Wellington C = Christchurch
Unreal Expectations?…
....and more Affordable Affordable Housing Models
 Future Urban Form – Sustainable Transport Planning Responses New Ways Needed – A Change in Direction
What is Sustainable Transport? • Rail and Public Transport • Bicycling etc • Green cars • Infrastructure Priorities and Configurations to Support the Various Modal Options
Vehicle Options: Peak Oil and Mitigating GHG’s Alternate Fuels electric cars electric motor-scooter electric-assist bike electric gopher Vehicle Options: Peak Oil and Mitigating GHG’s
“If you’re looking for a big opportunity look for a big problem” ANON If you want a big opportunity....look for a big problem
Where do Australian emissions come from? 48% 14% Stationary energy (power plants, etc) Transport (vehicles) 6% 3% 2% Garbage tips Industrial processes Gases escaping (during mining, from pipes) 17% 10% Land use change and forestry (clearing, etc) Agriculture (mostly ex-animals) AGO, figures for 1999 Australian Emissions
Where do Australian emissions come from? Stationary energy (power plants, etc) Transport (vehicles) AGO, figures for 1999 62% of all emissions from Transport and Energy Australian Emissions
 Sustainable Energy  Future Urban Form – Sustainable Transport Planning Responses New Ways Needed – A Change in Direction
EVs and Renewable Communities EVs in Toyota’s Dream House, Japan MASDAR City, United Arab Emirates
Smart Grids: An Alternative Renewables Enabler Smart Grids
Availability? What if we replaced all of the cars in Australia with EV’s? We would have 3 times (300%) the current power generation capacity for the nation........ Availability?.......and Capacity? Electric Cars Daily Commute
EVs, Distributed Energy and Smart Grids Courtesy of EPRI An Integrated Solution
But are Green Cars the Answer? • Hybrids can cut fuel consumption by 40% compared with similar sized petrol cars? • Won’t hybrids or electric cars solve all this? – Obviously helpful, but not the complete answer: • Currently < 1% of sales. 30 years to replace fleet • Would cost $300-400 billion, mostly imported • 5 major cities increase in population by 45% by 2050 • Even if we could afford it, it wouldn’t solve: – congestion, accidents, mobility for aged, obesity…
Land Use and Transport inextricably linked • A number of cities in US and elsewhere now pulling down inner city expressways • New concept in the US of “Road Diet” – removing some traffic lanes to limit traffic flows and speeds to environmental capacity • Singapore, London, Stockholm congestion charging and other cities looking at following • Roadspace is increasingly being allocated to public transport, bicycles and other small vehicles • Big investments are being made in public transport
Public Transport Trend back to public transport in US – PT growing faster in the US than car traffic since 1995 – Light rail up 10%, heavy rail up 5% in year to March. Car use down 4% Big shifts to PT in Australia – Patronage on Melbourne Trains up 23% in last 3 years – Buses in Brisbane up 30% in last few years – Trains in Perth up 40% in last year – Light Rail in Adelaide up 30% in last year
Sustainable Built Form and Land Use • Fewer cars (less roads), more public transport…..pedestrian and cycling priorities Changes Needed
Destiny of all life lies  within technology
Cheonggyecheon area before restoration (Seoul) Source: http://www.metro.seoul.kr/kor2000/chungaehome/en/seoul/2sub.htm/
Cheonggyecheon area after restoration Source: http://www.metro.seoul.kr/kor2000/chungaehome/en/seoul/2sub.htm/
Providing Specific Space for Cyclists is Catching On..
The Humble Bicycle
What do we need.....a Tipping Point? PPPs??
PB-CUSP Alliance Research Costs to government • $86 million (or approximately $80,000 per block) – or the cost to provide power, water, sewerage, schools, hospitals and local government services for fringe developments. Road infrastructure is the most significant cost. Cost to people • $250 million in transport costs over 50 years – people in fringe developments drive more frequently and own more cars • $ 4.23 million in health costs – people in fringe developments have higher risk of obesity related to lower levels of physical activity for people. Cost to the planet • 4,400 tons of greenhouse gas is saved for 1,000 urban dwellings, which is roughly equal to the amount emitted from 200 homes – an estimated dollar value of approximately $19.32 million. Productivity Opportunity • A 6% improvement in productivity due to active travel Lifestyle.
 Future Urban Form – Sustainable Land Use (how to grow?) Planning Responses New Ways Needed – A Change in Direction
Land Use and Transport Modes 240 persons travel to work in: 177 cars 3 buses 1 tram
RESULTS SUBSTANTIAL ECONOMIC, SOCIAL & ENVIRONMENTAL BENEFITS 1. Reduced congestion (cost of $20Billion by 2020), better access, raising productivity and social equity 2. Attracting business and finance to networked, efficient and active places 3. Savings in health care and improved workplace productivity 4. Energy/GHG savings in operating/using new precincts 5. Uplift in Property Values 6. Tourism Opportunities Economic Opportunities Through Better Transport and Land Use Planning
 Sustainable Energy  Future Urban Form – Biophillic city concept Planning Responses Planning Responses New Ways Needed – A Change in Direction
What is Biophilia? Edward O. Wilson, a Harvard University entomologist, coined the term "biophilia", referring to humans' "love of living things" - our innate affinity with nature
Encountering Nature in Our Daily Routine
Joyce Station, Vancouver, 2004 Joyce Station, Vancouver, 2004 Hotel, Offices, Farmers Market,  Cafes, Restaurants Generous, people‐oriented public  environments A range of housing densities that are  people‐oriented Vauban Redevelopment, Freiburg, Germany
The High Line, New York City
Caixa Forum Museum in Madrid
Montreal Rooftop Gardens Project
• Increase Biodiversity and Stabilise Ecological Systems The Biophilic City Concept
Deforestation Insufficient Nature in our Cities
On the Therapy of Walking in Nature: Study by British mental health charity MIND “The new research…shows green exercise has particular benefits for people experiencing mental distress. It directly benefits mental health (lowering stress and boosting self-esteem), improves physical health (lowering blood pressure and helping to tackle obesity), provides a source of meaning and purpose, helps to develop skills and form social connections.”
Does Nature Help Us To Be Better Human Beings? Nature Makes Us More Generous! “Those more immersed in natural settings were more generous, whereas those immersed in non- natural settings were less likely to give. Feelings of autonomy and nature relatedness were responsible for the willingness to give to others, indicating that these experiences facilitated a willingness to promote others’ interests as well as one’s own. In other words, autonomy and relatedness encouraged participants to focus on their intrinsic values for relationships and community rather than on personal gain.” --Weinstein, Przybylski, and Ryan, 2009
• Increase Biodiversity and Stabilise Ecological Systems • Introduction of Urban Farming (including Vertical Farms) Catering for Local Food Requirements and Reduction in Food Miles The Biophilic City Concept
Mole Hill Vancouver Edible Cities Cuba
Vertical Farms
• Increase Biodiversity and Stabilise Ecological Systems • Introduction of Urban Farming (including Vertical Farms) Catering for Local Food Requirements and Reduction in Food Miles • Improvement in Water Management, Efficiency and Recycling The Biophilic City Concept
Seattle Street Edge Alternatives
• Increase Biodiversity and Stabilise Ecological Systems • Introduction of Urban Farming (including Vertical Farms) Catering for Local Food Requirements and Reduction in Food Miles • Improvement in Water Management, Efficiency and Recycling • Decreased Energy Intensity through Reduced Heat Island Effect – Consideration of Climate Change Adaptation due to ▲ ºC into the Future The Biophilic City Concept
Economic Evidence  Chicago’s Millenium Park (10ha roof garden. Increased property values est, US$1.4Billion and Tourism US $2.6Billion Davis Community in California, uplift of property vales est. US$1.2 Million due to tree planting program BCR at 3.8:1 Sustainability Victoria study that shade planting for houses reduces summer internal temperatures between 6 and 12 deg C A hypothetical ‘cool communities’ program, revolving around reducing heat island effect in Los Angeles has projected estimated annual savings of US$170 million from reduced air-conditioning costs and US$360 million in smog-related health savings.
• Increase Biodiversity and Stabilise Ecological Systems • Introduction of Urban Farming (including Vertical Farms) Catering for Local Food Requirements and Reduction in Food Miles • Improvement in Water Management, Efficiency and Recycling • Decreased Energy Intensity through Reduced Heat Island Effect – Consideration of Climate Change Adaptation due to ▲ ºC into the Future • Improved Health and Well Being (Biophilia and Reduced Pollution) and Associated Productivity Improvements The Biophilic City Concept
The Economic Evidence! • Roger Ulrich’s classic study of the therapeutic effects of hospital room views; • Terry Hartig et al: emotional and intellectual restorative impacts of nature; • Judith Heerwegen’s study of productivity improvements in green buildings; • Leather: Sunlight penetration and views of nature in the workplace positively correlate with job satisfaction, negatively correlate with intention to quit; • Nancy Wells: Impact of nature on cognitive function of children • Francis Kuo and colleagues at Illinois: Chicago public housing studies • Outdoor learning studies: AIR/California Department of Education study • Many others…!!!
Biophilic Cities and Creativity? Right Brain Cities?
• Increase Biodiversity and Stabilise Ecological Systems • Introduction of Urban Farming (including Vertical Farms) Catering for Local Food Requirements and Reduction in Food Miles • Improvement in Water Management, Efficiency and Recycling • Decreased Energy Intensity through Reduced Heat Island Effect – Consideration of Climate Change Adaptation due to ▲ ºC into the Future • Improved Health and Well Being (Biophilia and Reduced Pollution) and Associated Productivity Improvements • Bio-sequestration of Legacy CO² The Biophilic City Concept
 Sustainable Energy and Cars • Renewable distributed energy generation • Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEV) • Smart Grids (V2G technologies)  Sustainable Built Form and Land Use • Fewer cars (less roads), more public transport…..pedestrian and cycling priorities • Urban growth containment • Transit Oriented Development (TODS, PODS, CODS and GODS) and increased density • Green Buildings, smaller houses (density) • Urban farming, local food supply • Biophilic cities New Ways Needed – A Change in Direction
Back to Place Social Offerings - such as entertainment venues and places to meet. Openness - how welcoming a place is. and the area’s Aesthetics - its physical beauty and green spaces. These communities show stronger population growth and other desirable vitality attributes.
RESULTS SUBSTANTIAL ECONOMIC, SOCIAL & ENVIRONMENTAL BENEFITS Scale, quality and value of benefits 1. Attracting business and finance to networked, efficient and active places 2. Attract and retain social capital 3. Reduced congestion, better access, raising productivity and social equity 4. Savings in health care and improved workplace productivity 5. Energy / GHG savings in operating/using new precincts

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Future.org.final

  • 1.
    Futures Forum Series,Melbourne, 27th February 2014 Darren Bilsborough, Director rIGAR Group Adjunct Professor of Sustainability, Curtin University The Role of Cities in Creating Australia’s Future Future Urban Renewal as an Economic Accelerator
  • 2.
    2 Challenges Australian citiesface two challenges and our future urban developments need to adapt to these challenges. Firstly there is the environmental challenges of climate change and resource constraints. Secondly each city faces increasing pressure to maintain the physical and psychological well-being of their occupants in the face of growing population and health risks.
  • 3.
    More from less.Depleting natural resources and increasing demand for those resources through economic and population growth will see a focus on resource use efficiency. Going, going, gone. Reference to Ecological Habitat, Biodiversity loss and rising GHG’s The Silk Highway. Recognizing the emerging economic powers in BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India and China) Forever Young. OECD countries are ageing, with lifestyle and diet related health problems, in addition to a reduced tax payer base Great expectations. A rising demand for experiences and services over products but in poor countries the expectations are far more basic (food, water, shelter, etc) Virtually here. Computing power and memory storage are improving rapidly, with many more devices connected to the internet. A megatrend is based on the aggregation and synthesis of multiple trends. CSIRO “Megatrends”
  • 4.
    “Megashocks” Fore-sighting indicates anumber of risks that will require a strategic science response World Economic Forum Megashocks Map 2009 • asset price collapse • slowing Chinese economy • oil and gas price spikes • extreme climate change related weather • pandemic • biodiversity loss • terrorism • nanotechnology risks.
  • 5.
    Future Health Liability– Unfunded Health Budgets
  • 7.
    The Economic Relevanceof our Cities It is our cities that power our economy, producing at least 80 per cent of our GDP and housing almost eight out of every ten of us
  • 9.
    “Cities aren’t structures;cities are people … the strength that comes from human collaboration is the central truth behind civilisation’s Success and the primary reason why cities exist”. Edward Glaeser, Triumph of the City, 2011 “Today our greatest competitive advantageous are the qualities that attract the best and brightest from around the world to come here”. Michael Bloomberg, Mayor of New York City
  • 10.
    “4 themes tobuilding good cities” or resilient towns and regions 1. Economic development and diversity: employment, Indigenous engagement, entrepreneurship, trade and economic supply chains. 2. Infrastructure (social and physical): health, education, justice, transport, waste, power and water 3. Planning and PlaceMaking: the creation of place - affordable, liveable, amenable, home. 4. Governance: regional, state and federal.
  • 11.
    Infrastructure (social andphysical): health, education, justice, transport, waste, power and water The ‘body’ and ‘organs’ of a city, town or region relies on its essential physical and social infrastructure services; its ongoing operations need ‘sustenance’ in the form of energy, good metabolism, and the social infrastructure that enables a healthy, innovative, fair and secure place to live. In support of Place InfrastructureInfrastructure
  • 12.
    Planning and PlaceMaking:the creation of place — affordable, liveable, amenable, home. People live in cities, towns and regions for lots of reasons; these might be historical, for employment or to maintain or pursue their relationships. But people stay for their sense of place — that is, the way the area makes them feel and the ability it gives them to connect with their surroundings, whether physical or metaphysical. Planning systems are set up to enable this to happen beyond individual project plans. The key is good planning Planning and PlaceMakingPlanning and PlaceMaking
  • 13.
    Temporal scale ofplanning 0 5 10 15 20 25 Year Urban landuse planning Public service pricing Solid waste management Transportation planning Purchase of utility goods Industrial development strategy Urban infrastructure development Temporal scale of a council’s decision making. (a) Temporal scale of planning (Dr X Bai, CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems) Temporal Scale of Planning
  • 14.
    Temporal scale ofenvironmental implications of decisions 1 10 100 1000 Year Urban landuse planning Public service pricing Solid waste management Transportation planning Purchase of utility goods Industrial development strategy Urban infrastructure development Temporal scale of a council’s decision making. b) Temporal scale of environmental impacts of decisions (Dr X Bai) Temporal Scale of Implications
  • 15.
    Binding People toPlace The Knight Foundation-Gallup Soul of the Community project (John & James 2009) determined that communities with higher proportions of attached citizens (that is, people with high loyalty to and passion for their communities) had stronger GDP (gross domestic product) growth over the past five years than those with lower proportions of attached citizens. After interviewing close to 28,000 people in 26 communities over two years, the study found that three main qualities bind people to place: social offerings (such as entertainment venues and places to meet), openness (how welcoming a place is) and the area’s aesthetics (its physical beauty and green spaces). These communities show stronger population growth and other desirable vitality attributes.
  • 16.
    So...Where to fromhere? The Next Wave?
  • 17.
  • 18.
    What Constitutes aBetter City or Precinct Scale Development? What should we measure? • One that is economically resilient and productive • One that attracts business and financial capital • One that is resource efficient and waste free • One that attracts people and enriches social capital • One that binds people to place • One that is socially inclusive (safe, just, affordable) • One in which all stakeholders can engage in its future • A place that promotes the health and well being of its occupants:- Land Use and Transport Planning
  • 19.
    A new modelfor innovative planning is required at a precinct scale within our urban environments to provide a means for solving and resolving the plethora of problems we face in the years to come, including- rising health costs, a continued decline in productivity, adaptation to future climate change and decreasing biodiversity. Innovative planning is not about trying to predict the future, but instead to conceive of how things might be different, and to identify policies, strategies and infrastructure solutions that can readily adapt to change. Planning Responses New Ways Needed – A Change in Direction
  • 20.
    “If you’re lookingfor a big opportunity look for a big problem” ANON Precinct Scale Development
  • 21.
    SOLVING THE RIGHTPROBLEMS OUTCOME FOCUSSED
  • 22.
    The following isan extract from the Commonwealth Governments “Australia in the Asian Century” White Paper, October 2012. Using creativity and design-based thinking to solve complex problems is a distinctive Australian strength that can help to meet the emerging challenges of this century. This points towards a tremendous opportunity for Australian businesses responsible for the design and delivery of solutions for the built environment to adopt a model, which allows for a logical assemblage of thinking and expertise which can be integrated to produce superior city and precinct scale development outcomes measured against increased amenity and improved liveability, productivity and sustainability indicators. Planning Responses New Ways Needed – A Change in Direction
  • 23.
    URBAN INNOVATION In seekinga definition for Urban Innovation I came across the following which was proposed in a book from 2002 entitled “Critical Reflections of Cities in South-East Asia” which in turn referenced a 1998 book authored by Peter Hall entitled “Cities in Civilisation”. Urban Innovation; The marriage of culture and technology to solve urban (spatial) problems. Or more simply it is in the title of another book “Making Cities Work: The Dynamics of Urban Innovation” (1980) So perhaps for Urban Innovation it can be defined as; Urban Innovation; Integrated design solutions which maximise value to built form and minimise risk to future urban resilience
  • 24.
     Future UrbanForm – Green Buildings (next steps) Planning Responses New Ways Needed – A Change in Direction
  • 25.
    What are thenext drivers for change? The challenge is to define our local responses to Global Challenges Green Buildings
  • 26.
    Building Integrated PV BuildingIntegrated PV (BIPV)
  • 27.
    Consumption of Non-RenewableResources What does this mean? No More New Buildings?......Probably the “right” answer but this is just not practical We must encourage the market to Refurbish and Reuse and if new buildings are required (and they will be required due to increasing population and growth demands in the short to medium term) we need them to be developed using a high proportion of renewable resources and to operate on zero waste principals including carbon neutrality.
  • 28.
     Future UrbanForm – Housing Affordability Planning Responses New Ways Needed – A Change in Direction
  • 29.
  • 30.
  • 31.
    Density vs PrivateTransport C W A y = 403914x-0.8377 R2 = 0.8483 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Urban Density (persons/ha) PrivatePassengerTransportEnergyUseperPerson(MJ) US Cities (diamond) European Cities (X) Asian Cities (asterisk) Canadian Cities (cross) Australian Cities (square) New Zealand Cities (dot) A = Auckland W = Wellington C = Christchurch
  • 32.
  • 33.
  • 34.
     Future UrbanForm – Sustainable Transport Planning Responses New Ways Needed – A Change in Direction
  • 35.
    What is SustainableTransport? • Rail and Public Transport • Bicycling etc • Green cars • Infrastructure Priorities and Configurations to Support the Various Modal Options
  • 36.
    Vehicle Options: PeakOil and Mitigating GHG’s Alternate Fuels electric cars electric motor-scooter electric-assist bike electric gopher Vehicle Options: Peak Oil and Mitigating GHG’s
  • 37.
    “If you’re lookingfor a big opportunity look for a big problem” ANON If you want a big opportunity....look for a big problem
  • 38.
    Where do Australianemissions come from? 48% 14% Stationary energy (power plants, etc) Transport (vehicles) 6% 3% 2% Garbage tips Industrial processes Gases escaping (during mining, from pipes) 17% 10% Land use change and forestry (clearing, etc) Agriculture (mostly ex-animals) AGO, figures for 1999 Australian Emissions
  • 39.
    Where do Australianemissions come from? Stationary energy (power plants, etc) Transport (vehicles) AGO, figures for 1999 62% of all emissions from Transport and Energy Australian Emissions
  • 40.
     Sustainable Energy Future Urban Form – Sustainable Transport Planning Responses New Ways Needed – A Change in Direction
  • 41.
    EVs and Renewable Communities EVsin Toyota’s Dream House, Japan MASDAR City, United Arab Emirates
  • 42.
    Smart Grids: AnAlternative Renewables Enabler Smart Grids
  • 43.
    Availability? What if wereplaced all of the cars in Australia with EV’s? We would have 3 times (300%) the current power generation capacity for the nation........ Availability?.......and Capacity? Electric Cars Daily Commute
  • 44.
    EVs, Distributed Energyand Smart Grids Courtesy of EPRI An Integrated Solution
  • 45.
    But are GreenCars the Answer? • Hybrids can cut fuel consumption by 40% compared with similar sized petrol cars? • Won’t hybrids or electric cars solve all this? – Obviously helpful, but not the complete answer: • Currently < 1% of sales. 30 years to replace fleet • Would cost $300-400 billion, mostly imported • 5 major cities increase in population by 45% by 2050 • Even if we could afford it, it wouldn’t solve: – congestion, accidents, mobility for aged, obesity…
  • 46.
    Land Use andTransport inextricably linked • A number of cities in US and elsewhere now pulling down inner city expressways • New concept in the US of “Road Diet” – removing some traffic lanes to limit traffic flows and speeds to environmental capacity • Singapore, London, Stockholm congestion charging and other cities looking at following • Roadspace is increasingly being allocated to public transport, bicycles and other small vehicles • Big investments are being made in public transport
  • 47.
    Public Transport Trend backto public transport in US – PT growing faster in the US than car traffic since 1995 – Light rail up 10%, heavy rail up 5% in year to March. Car use down 4% Big shifts to PT in Australia – Patronage on Melbourne Trains up 23% in last 3 years – Buses in Brisbane up 30% in last few years – Trains in Perth up 40% in last year – Light Rail in Adelaide up 30% in last year
  • 48.
    Sustainable Built Formand Land Use • Fewer cars (less roads), more public transport…..pedestrian and cycling priorities Changes Needed
  • 49.
  • 50.
    Cheonggyecheon area beforerestoration (Seoul) Source: http://www.metro.seoul.kr/kor2000/chungaehome/en/seoul/2sub.htm/
  • 51.
    Cheonggyecheon area afterrestoration Source: http://www.metro.seoul.kr/kor2000/chungaehome/en/seoul/2sub.htm/
  • 52.
    Providing Specific Spacefor Cyclists is Catching On..
  • 53.
  • 55.
    What do weneed.....a Tipping Point? PPPs??
  • 56.
    PB-CUSP Alliance Research Coststo government • $86 million (or approximately $80,000 per block) – or the cost to provide power, water, sewerage, schools, hospitals and local government services for fringe developments. Road infrastructure is the most significant cost. Cost to people • $250 million in transport costs over 50 years – people in fringe developments drive more frequently and own more cars • $ 4.23 million in health costs – people in fringe developments have higher risk of obesity related to lower levels of physical activity for people. Cost to the planet • 4,400 tons of greenhouse gas is saved for 1,000 urban dwellings, which is roughly equal to the amount emitted from 200 homes – an estimated dollar value of approximately $19.32 million. Productivity Opportunity • A 6% improvement in productivity due to active travel Lifestyle.
  • 57.
     Future UrbanForm – Sustainable Land Use (how to grow?) Planning Responses New Ways Needed – A Change in Direction
  • 58.
    Land Use andTransport Modes 240 persons travel to work in: 177 cars 3 buses 1 tram
  • 59.
    RESULTS SUBSTANTIAL ECONOMIC, SOCIAL& ENVIRONMENTAL BENEFITS 1. Reduced congestion (cost of $20Billion by 2020), better access, raising productivity and social equity 2. Attracting business and finance to networked, efficient and active places 3. Savings in health care and improved workplace productivity 4. Energy/GHG savings in operating/using new precincts 5. Uplift in Property Values 6. Tourism Opportunities Economic Opportunities Through Better Transport and Land Use Planning
  • 60.
     Sustainable Energy Future Urban Form – Biophillic city concept Planning Responses Planning Responses New Ways Needed – A Change in Direction
  • 62.
    What is Biophilia? EdwardO. Wilson, a Harvard University entomologist, coined the term "biophilia", referring to humans' "love of living things" - our innate affinity with nature
  • 63.
    Encountering Nature inOur Daily Routine
  • 64.
  • 66.
    The High Line,New York City
  • 68.
  • 69.
  • 70.
    • Increase Biodiversityand Stabilise Ecological Systems The Biophilic City Concept
  • 71.
  • 72.
    On the Therapyof Walking in Nature: Study by British mental health charity MIND “The new research…shows green exercise has particular benefits for people experiencing mental distress. It directly benefits mental health (lowering stress and boosting self-esteem), improves physical health (lowering blood pressure and helping to tackle obesity), provides a source of meaning and purpose, helps to develop skills and form social connections.”
  • 73.
    Does Nature HelpUs To Be Better Human Beings? Nature Makes Us More Generous! “Those more immersed in natural settings were more generous, whereas those immersed in non- natural settings were less likely to give. Feelings of autonomy and nature relatedness were responsible for the willingness to give to others, indicating that these experiences facilitated a willingness to promote others’ interests as well as one’s own. In other words, autonomy and relatedness encouraged participants to focus on their intrinsic values for relationships and community rather than on personal gain.” --Weinstein, Przybylski, and Ryan, 2009
  • 74.
    • Increase Biodiversityand Stabilise Ecological Systems • Introduction of Urban Farming (including Vertical Farms) Catering for Local Food Requirements and Reduction in Food Miles The Biophilic City Concept
  • 75.
  • 76.
  • 77.
    • Increase Biodiversityand Stabilise Ecological Systems • Introduction of Urban Farming (including Vertical Farms) Catering for Local Food Requirements and Reduction in Food Miles • Improvement in Water Management, Efficiency and Recycling The Biophilic City Concept
  • 78.
    Seattle Street EdgeAlternatives
  • 79.
    • Increase Biodiversityand Stabilise Ecological Systems • Introduction of Urban Farming (including Vertical Farms) Catering for Local Food Requirements and Reduction in Food Miles • Improvement in Water Management, Efficiency and Recycling • Decreased Energy Intensity through Reduced Heat Island Effect – Consideration of Climate Change Adaptation due to ▲ ºC into the Future The Biophilic City Concept
  • 80.
    Economic Evidence  Chicago’sMillenium Park (10ha roof garden. Increased property values est, US$1.4Billion and Tourism US $2.6Billion Davis Community in California, uplift of property vales est. US$1.2 Million due to tree planting program BCR at 3.8:1 Sustainability Victoria study that shade planting for houses reduces summer internal temperatures between 6 and 12 deg C A hypothetical ‘cool communities’ program, revolving around reducing heat island effect in Los Angeles has projected estimated annual savings of US$170 million from reduced air-conditioning costs and US$360 million in smog-related health savings.
  • 81.
    • Increase Biodiversityand Stabilise Ecological Systems • Introduction of Urban Farming (including Vertical Farms) Catering for Local Food Requirements and Reduction in Food Miles • Improvement in Water Management, Efficiency and Recycling • Decreased Energy Intensity through Reduced Heat Island Effect – Consideration of Climate Change Adaptation due to ▲ ºC into the Future • Improved Health and Well Being (Biophilia and Reduced Pollution) and Associated Productivity Improvements The Biophilic City Concept
  • 82.
    The Economic Evidence! •Roger Ulrich’s classic study of the therapeutic effects of hospital room views; • Terry Hartig et al: emotional and intellectual restorative impacts of nature; • Judith Heerwegen’s study of productivity improvements in green buildings; • Leather: Sunlight penetration and views of nature in the workplace positively correlate with job satisfaction, negatively correlate with intention to quit; • Nancy Wells: Impact of nature on cognitive function of children • Francis Kuo and colleagues at Illinois: Chicago public housing studies • Outdoor learning studies: AIR/California Department of Education study • Many others…!!!
  • 83.
    Biophilic Cities andCreativity? Right Brain Cities?
  • 84.
    • Increase Biodiversityand Stabilise Ecological Systems • Introduction of Urban Farming (including Vertical Farms) Catering for Local Food Requirements and Reduction in Food Miles • Improvement in Water Management, Efficiency and Recycling • Decreased Energy Intensity through Reduced Heat Island Effect – Consideration of Climate Change Adaptation due to ▲ ºC into the Future • Improved Health and Well Being (Biophilia and Reduced Pollution) and Associated Productivity Improvements • Bio-sequestration of Legacy CO² The Biophilic City Concept
  • 85.
     Sustainable Energyand Cars • Renewable distributed energy generation • Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEV) • Smart Grids (V2G technologies)  Sustainable Built Form and Land Use • Fewer cars (less roads), more public transport…..pedestrian and cycling priorities • Urban growth containment • Transit Oriented Development (TODS, PODS, CODS and GODS) and increased density • Green Buildings, smaller houses (density) • Urban farming, local food supply • Biophilic cities New Ways Needed – A Change in Direction
  • 86.
    Back to Place SocialOfferings - such as entertainment venues and places to meet. Openness - how welcoming a place is. and the area’s Aesthetics - its physical beauty and green spaces. These communities show stronger population growth and other desirable vitality attributes.
  • 87.
    RESULTS SUBSTANTIAL ECONOMIC, SOCIAL& ENVIRONMENTAL BENEFITS Scale, quality and value of benefits 1. Attracting business and finance to networked, efficient and active places 2. Attract and retain social capital 3. Reduced congestion, better access, raising productivity and social equity 4. Savings in health care and improved workplace productivity 5. Energy / GHG savings in operating/using new precincts