In Search of a Tool to Support Planning Inside Large Cities: the SustaIn-LED ...
Future.org.final
1. Futures Forum Series, Melbourne, 27th February 2014
Darren Bilsborough, Director rIGAR Group
Adjunct Professor of Sustainability, Curtin University
The Role of Cities in Creating
Australia’s Future
Future Urban Renewal as an Economic Accelerator
2. 2 Challenges
Australian cities face two challenges and our future urban
developments need to adapt to these challenges.
Firstly there is the environmental challenges of climate
change and resource constraints.
Secondly each city faces increasing pressure to maintain
the physical and psychological well-being of their
occupants in the face of growing population and health
risks.
3. More from less. Depleting natural resources and
increasing demand for those resources through
economic and population growth will see a focus
on resource use efficiency.
Going, going, gone. Reference to Ecological
Habitat, Biodiversity loss and rising GHG’s
The Silk Highway. Recognizing the emerging
economic powers in BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India
and China)
Forever Young. OECD countries are ageing, with
lifestyle and diet related health problems, in
addition to a reduced tax payer base
Great expectations. A rising demand for
experiences and services over products but in poor
countries the expectations are far more basic (food,
water, shelter, etc)
Virtually here. Computing power and memory
storage are improving rapidly, with many more
devices connected to the internet.
A megatrend is based on the aggregation
and synthesis of multiple trends.
CSIRO “Megatrends”
4. “Megashocks”
Fore-sighting indicates a number of risks that will require
a strategic science response
World Economic Forum Megashocks Map 2009
• asset price collapse
• slowing Chinese economy
• oil and gas price spikes
• extreme climate change
related weather
• pandemic
• biodiversity loss
• terrorism
• nanotechnology risks.
7. The Economic Relevance of our Cities
It is our cities that power our economy, producing at least 80 per
cent of our GDP and housing almost eight out of every ten of us
8.
9. “Cities aren’t structures; cities are people … the strength that comes
from human collaboration is the central truth behind civilisation’s
Success and the primary reason why cities exist”.
Edward Glaeser, Triumph of the City, 2011
“Today our greatest competitive advantageous are the qualities that
attract the best and brightest from around the world to come here”.
Michael Bloomberg, Mayor of New York City
10. “4 themes to building good cities”
or resilient towns and regions
1. Economic development and diversity:
employment, Indigenous engagement,
entrepreneurship, trade and economic
supply chains.
2. Infrastructure (social and physical):
health, education, justice, transport,
waste, power and water
3. Planning and PlaceMaking: the
creation of place - affordable, liveable,
amenable, home.
4. Governance: regional, state and
federal.
11. Infrastructure (social and physical):
health, education, justice, transport, waste, power and water
The ‘body’ and ‘organs’ of a city, town or region
relies on its essential physical and social
infrastructure services; its ongoing operations
need ‘sustenance’ in the form of energy, good
metabolism, and the social infrastructure that
enables a healthy, innovative, fair and secure
place to live.
In support of Place
InfrastructureInfrastructure
12. Planning and PlaceMaking: the creation of place
— affordable, liveable, amenable, home.
People live in cities, towns and regions for lots of
reasons; these might be historical, for employment
or to maintain or pursue their relationships. But
people stay for their sense of place — that is, the
way the area makes them feel and the ability it gives
them to connect with their surroundings, whether
physical or metaphysical.
Planning systems are set up to enable this to
happen beyond individual project plans. The key is
good planning
Planning and PlaceMakingPlanning and PlaceMaking
13. Temporal scale of planning
0 5 10 15 20 25
Year
Urban landuse planning
Public service pricing
Solid waste management
Transportation planning
Purchase of utility goods
Industrial development strategy
Urban infrastructure development
Temporal scale of a council’s decision making.
(a) Temporal scale of planning (Dr X Bai, CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems)
Temporal Scale of Planning
14. Temporal scale of environmental implications of decisions
1 10 100 1000
Year
Urban landuse planning
Public service pricing
Solid waste management
Transportation planning
Purchase of utility goods
Industrial development strategy
Urban infrastructure development
Temporal scale of a council’s decision making.
b) Temporal scale of environmental impacts of decisions (Dr X Bai)
Temporal Scale of Implications
15. Binding People to Place
The Knight Foundation-Gallup Soul of the Community project (John &
James 2009) determined that communities with higher proportions of
attached citizens (that is, people with high loyalty to and passion for
their communities) had stronger GDP (gross domestic product) growth
over the past five years than those with lower proportions of attached
citizens. After interviewing close to 28,000 people in 26 communities
over two years, the study found that three main qualities
bind people to place: social offerings (such as
entertainment venues and places to meet),
openness (how welcoming a place is) and the
area’s aesthetics (its physical beauty and
green spaces). These communities show stronger population
growth and other desirable vitality attributes.
18. What Constitutes a Better City or Precinct Scale Development?
What should we measure?
• One that is economically resilient and productive
• One that attracts business and financial capital
• One that is resource efficient and waste free
• One that attracts people and enriches social capital
• One that binds people to place
• One that is socially inclusive (safe, just, affordable)
• One in which all stakeholders can engage in its future
• A place that promotes the health and well being of its
occupants:- Land Use and Transport Planning
19. A new model for innovative planning is required at a precinct scale
within our urban environments to provide a means for solving and
resolving the plethora of problems we face in the years to come,
including- rising health costs, a continued decline in productivity,
adaptation to future climate change and decreasing biodiversity.
Innovative planning is not about trying to predict the future, but instead
to conceive of how things might be different, and to identify policies,
strategies and infrastructure solutions that can readily adapt to change.
Planning Responses
New Ways Needed – A Change in Direction
20. “If you’re looking for a big opportunity look for a big
problem” ANON
Precinct Scale Development
22. The following is an extract from the Commonwealth Governments
“Australia in the Asian Century” White Paper, October 2012.
Using creativity and design-based thinking to solve complex
problems is a distinctive Australian strength that can help to
meet the emerging challenges of this century.
This points towards a tremendous opportunity for Australian businesses
responsible for the design and delivery of solutions for the built
environment to adopt a model, which allows for a logical assemblage of
thinking and expertise which can be integrated to produce superior city
and precinct scale development outcomes measured against increased
amenity and improved liveability, productivity and sustainability
indicators.
Planning Responses
New Ways Needed – A Change in Direction
23. URBAN INNOVATION
In seeking a definition for Urban Innovation I came across the following which was
proposed in a book from 2002 entitled “Critical Reflections of Cities in South-East
Asia” which in turn referenced a 1998 book authored by Peter Hall entitled “Cities
in Civilisation”.
Urban Innovation; The marriage of culture and technology to solve urban (spatial)
problems.
Or more simply it is in the title of another book “Making Cities Work: The
Dynamics of Urban Innovation” (1980)
So perhaps for Urban Innovation it can be defined as;
Urban Innovation; Integrated design solutions which maximise value to built form
and minimise risk to future urban resilience
24. Future Urban Form
– Green Buildings (next steps)
Planning Responses
New Ways Needed – A Change in Direction
25. What are the next drivers for change?
The challenge is to define our local responses to Global Challenges
Green Buildings
27. Consumption of Non-Renewable Resources
What does this mean?
No More New Buildings?......Probably the “right”
answer but this is just not practical
We must encourage the market to Refurbish and
Reuse and if new buildings are required (and
they will be required due to increasing
population and growth demands in the short to
medium term) we need them to be developed
using a high proportion of renewable resources
and to operate on zero waste principals
including carbon neutrality.
28. Future Urban Form
– Housing Affordability
Planning Responses
New Ways Needed – A Change in Direction
31. Density vs Private Transport
C
W
A
y = 403914x-0.8377
R2
= 0.8483
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
Urban Density (persons/ha)
PrivatePassengerTransportEnergyUseperPerson(MJ)
US Cities (diamond)
European Cities (X)
Asian Cities (asterisk)
Canadian Cities (cross)
Australian Cities (square)
New Zealand Cities (dot)
A = Auckland
W = Wellington
C = Christchurch
34. Future Urban Form
– Sustainable Transport
Planning Responses
New Ways Needed – A Change in Direction
35. What is Sustainable Transport?
• Rail and Public Transport
• Bicycling etc
• Green cars
• Infrastructure Priorities and
Configurations to Support the
Various Modal Options
36. Vehicle Options: Peak Oil and Mitigating GHG’s
Alternate Fuels
electric cars
electric motor-scooter
electric-assist bike
electric gopher
Vehicle Options: Peak Oil and Mitigating GHG’s
37. “If you’re looking for a big opportunity look for a big
problem” ANON
If you want a big opportunity....look for a big problem
38. Where do Australian emissions come from?
48%
14%
Stationary energy
(power plants, etc)
Transport
(vehicles)
6%
3%
2%
Garbage tips
Industrial processes
Gases escaping (during
mining, from pipes)
17%
10%
Land use change and forestry
(clearing, etc)
Agriculture
(mostly ex-animals)
AGO, figures for 1999
Australian Emissions
39. Where do Australian emissions come from?
Stationary energy
(power plants, etc)
Transport
(vehicles)
AGO, figures for 1999
62% of all emissions
from Transport and
Energy
Australian Emissions
40. Sustainable Energy
Future Urban Form
– Sustainable Transport
Planning Responses
New Ways Needed – A Change in Direction
43. Availability?
What if we replaced all of the cars in
Australia with EV’s?
We would have 3 times (300%) the current
power generation capacity for the nation........
Availability?.......and Capacity?
Electric Cars Daily Commute
45. But are Green Cars the Answer?
• Hybrids can cut fuel consumption by 40% compared with
similar sized petrol cars?
• Won’t hybrids or electric cars solve all this?
– Obviously helpful, but not the complete answer:
• Currently < 1% of sales. 30 years to replace fleet
• Would cost $300-400 billion, mostly imported
• 5 major cities increase in population by 45% by
2050
• Even if we could afford it, it wouldn’t solve:
– congestion, accidents, mobility for aged, obesity…
46. Land Use and Transport inextricably linked
• A number of cities in US and elsewhere now
pulling down inner city expressways
• New concept in the US of “Road Diet” –
removing some traffic lanes to limit traffic flows
and speeds to environmental capacity
• Singapore, London, Stockholm congestion
charging and other cities looking at following
• Roadspace is increasingly being allocated to
public transport, bicycles and other small
vehicles
• Big investments are being made in public
transport
47. Public Transport
Trend back to public transport in US
– PT growing faster in the US than car traffic since 1995
– Light rail up 10%, heavy rail up 5% in year to March.
Car use down 4%
Big shifts to PT in Australia
– Patronage on Melbourne Trains up 23% in last 3
years
– Buses in Brisbane up 30% in last few years
– Trains in Perth up 40% in last year
– Light Rail in Adelaide up 30% in last year
48. Sustainable Built Form and Land Use
• Fewer cars (less roads), more public
transport…..pedestrian and cycling priorities
Changes Needed
56. PB-CUSP Alliance Research
Costs to government
• $86 million (or approximately $80,000 per block) – or the cost to provide
power, water, sewerage, schools, hospitals and local government services
for fringe developments. Road infrastructure is the most significant cost.
Cost to people
• $250 million in transport costs over 50 years – people in fringe
developments drive more frequently and own more cars
• $ 4.23 million in health costs – people in fringe developments have higher
risk of obesity related to lower levels of physical activity for people.
Cost to the planet
• 4,400 tons of greenhouse gas is saved for 1,000 urban dwellings, which is
roughly equal to the amount emitted from 200 homes – an estimated dollar
value of approximately $19.32 million.
Productivity Opportunity
• A 6% improvement in productivity due to active travel Lifestyle.
57. Future Urban Form
– Sustainable Land Use (how to grow?)
Planning Responses
New Ways Needed – A Change in Direction
58. Land Use and Transport Modes
240 persons travel to work in:
177 cars 3 buses 1 tram
59. RESULTS
SUBSTANTIAL ECONOMIC, SOCIAL & ENVIRONMENTAL BENEFITS
1. Reduced congestion (cost of $20Billion by 2020),
better access, raising productivity and social equity
2. Attracting business and finance to networked,
efficient and active places
3. Savings in health care and improved workplace
productivity
4. Energy/GHG savings in operating/using new
precincts
5. Uplift in Property Values
6. Tourism Opportunities
Economic Opportunities Through Better
Transport and Land Use Planning
60. Sustainable Energy
Future Urban Form
– Biophillic city concept
Planning Responses
Planning Responses
New Ways Needed – A Change in Direction
61.
62. What is Biophilia?
Edward O. Wilson, a Harvard University entomologist,
coined the term "biophilia", referring to humans' "love of
living things" - our innate affinity with nature
72. On the Therapy of Walking
in Nature:
Study by British mental health charity MIND
“The new research…shows green exercise has
particular benefits for people experiencing mental
distress. It directly benefits mental health (lowering
stress and boosting self-esteem), improves physical
health (lowering blood pressure and helping to tackle
obesity), provides a source of meaning and purpose,
helps to develop skills and form social connections.”
73. Does Nature Help Us To Be Better Human Beings?
Nature Makes Us More
Generous!
“Those more immersed in natural
settings were more generous,
whereas those immersed in non-
natural settings were less likely to
give. Feelings of autonomy and
nature relatedness were responsible
for the willingness to give to others,
indicating that these experiences
facilitated a willingness to promote
others’ interests as well as one’s
own. In other words, autonomy and
relatedness encouraged participants
to focus on their intrinsic values for
relationships and community rather
than on personal gain.” --Weinstein,
Przybylski, and Ryan, 2009
74. • Increase Biodiversity and Stabilise
Ecological Systems
• Introduction of Urban Farming (including
Vertical Farms) Catering for Local Food
Requirements and Reduction in Food Miles
The Biophilic City Concept
77. • Increase Biodiversity and Stabilise
Ecological Systems
• Introduction of Urban Farming (including
Vertical Farms) Catering for Local Food
Requirements and Reduction in Food Miles
• Improvement in Water Management,
Efficiency and Recycling
The Biophilic City Concept
79. • Increase Biodiversity and Stabilise
Ecological Systems
• Introduction of Urban Farming (including
Vertical Farms) Catering for Local Food
Requirements and Reduction in Food Miles
• Improvement in Water Management,
Efficiency and Recycling
• Decreased Energy Intensity through
Reduced Heat Island Effect – Consideration
of Climate Change Adaptation due to ▲ ºC
into the Future
The Biophilic City Concept
80. Economic Evidence
Chicago’s Millenium Park (10ha roof
garden. Increased property values est,
US$1.4Billion and Tourism US $2.6Billion
Davis Community in California, uplift of
property vales est. US$1.2 Million due to
tree planting program BCR at 3.8:1
Sustainability Victoria study that shade
planting for houses reduces summer
internal temperatures between 6 and 12
deg C
A hypothetical ‘cool communities’
program, revolving around reducing heat
island effect in Los Angeles has projected
estimated annual savings of US$170
million from reduced air-conditioning
costs and US$360 million in smog-related
health savings.
81. • Increase Biodiversity and Stabilise
Ecological Systems
• Introduction of Urban Farming (including
Vertical Farms) Catering for Local Food
Requirements and Reduction in Food Miles
• Improvement in Water Management,
Efficiency and Recycling
• Decreased Energy Intensity through
Reduced Heat Island Effect – Consideration
of Climate Change Adaptation due to ▲ ºC
into the Future
• Improved Health and Well Being (Biophilia
and Reduced Pollution) and Associated
Productivity Improvements
The Biophilic City Concept
82. The Economic Evidence!
• Roger Ulrich’s classic study of the therapeutic effects of
hospital room views;
• Terry Hartig et al: emotional and intellectual restorative
impacts of nature;
• Judith Heerwegen’s study of productivity improvements in
green buildings;
• Leather: Sunlight penetration and views of nature in the
workplace positively correlate with job satisfaction,
negatively correlate with intention to quit;
• Nancy Wells: Impact of nature on cognitive function of
children
• Francis Kuo and colleagues at Illinois: Chicago public
housing studies
• Outdoor learning studies: AIR/California Department of
Education study
• Many others…!!!
84. • Increase Biodiversity and Stabilise
Ecological Systems
• Introduction of Urban Farming (including
Vertical Farms) Catering for Local Food
Requirements and Reduction in Food Miles
• Improvement in Water Management,
Efficiency and Recycling
• Decreased Energy Intensity through
Reduced Heat Island Effect – Consideration
of Climate Change Adaptation due to ▲ ºC
into the Future
• Improved Health and Well Being (Biophilia
and Reduced Pollution) and Associated
Productivity Improvements
• Bio-sequestration of Legacy CO²
The Biophilic City Concept
85. Sustainable Energy and Cars
• Renewable distributed energy generation
• Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEV)
• Smart Grids (V2G technologies)
Sustainable Built Form and Land Use
• Fewer cars (less roads), more public
transport…..pedestrian and cycling priorities
• Urban growth containment
• Transit Oriented Development (TODS, PODS,
CODS and GODS) and increased density
• Green Buildings, smaller houses (density)
• Urban farming, local food supply
• Biophilic cities
New Ways Needed – A Change in Direction
86. Back to Place
Social Offerings - such as entertainment
venues and places to meet.
Openness - how welcoming a place is.
and the area’s
Aesthetics - its physical beauty and green
spaces.
These communities show stronger population
growth and other desirable vitality attributes.
87. RESULTS
SUBSTANTIAL ECONOMIC, SOCIAL & ENVIRONMENTAL BENEFITS
Scale, quality and value of benefits
1. Attracting business and finance to networked, efficient and active
places
2. Attract and retain social capital
3. Reduced congestion, better access, raising productivity and social
equity
4. Savings in health care and improved workplace productivity
5. Energy / GHG savings in operating/using new precincts
