2. 2
CENTER FOR AUTOMOTIVE RESEARCH
THE CENTER FOR AUTOMOTIVE RESEARCH (CAR)
Consortia that bring together
industry stakeholders to
participate in working groups,
networking opportunities,
and access to CAR staff.
RESEARCH EVENTS CONNECT
Industry-driven events and
conferences that deliver
content, context, and
connections.
Independent research and
analysis on critical issues
facing the industry.
Our mission is to produce independent research, convene stakeholders, and analyze critical
issues facing the mobility industry and its impact on the economy and society.
3. 3
Electrified Vehicles take up 11.9% of the U.S. market
0.6%
3.1%
3.2%
6.7%
6.7%
10.1%
11.9%
18.5%
39.0%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%
Large Car
Van
Luxury Car
Small Car
Middle Car
SUV
Electrified
Pickup
CUV
Market Share: Light Vehicle Segment Breakdown
U.S. Light Vehicle Sales 2022 YTD Through April
Note: Electrified Segment consists of BEVs, HEVs and PHEVs; all other segments are sales exclusive of Hybrid models
Source: Wards Automotive Reports and CAR Research
4. 4
Electrified vehicles see a massive increase in
year-to-date sales since last year
-37.1%
-33.9%
-22.1%
-22.0%
-21.2%
-19.9%
-12.8%
-12.6%
-5.1%
6.8%
24.1%
63.6%
-16.6%
-60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
Small Car
Van
Luxury Car
Middle Car
CUV
Large Car
Pickup
Fuel Cell
SUV
Hybrid
PHEV
BEV
Total
Segment Breakdown: U.S. Light Vehicles Sales Percent Change
2022 YTD vs. 2021 YTD Through April
Note: All other segments are sales exclusive of Hybrid models
Source: Wards Automotive Reports and CAR Research
5. 5
Impact of EV on Automotive Ecosystem
Trends via CAR Research
CENTER FOR AUTOMOTIVE RESEARCH
Automakers
Disrupting value
chain and
ecosystem, i.e.,
new centers of
influence
Transition from
ICE to BEV to
affect
manufacturing
footprint and
processes
Dealers
Dealers model
affected by new
BEV upstarts and
reduced
maintenance
requirements
Build-to-order to
likely coexist
with traditional
“push” sales
strategies
Suppliers
New emerging
supply base for
electrified
powertrains
Vertical
integration by
automakers to
disrupt
traditional
suppliers
Risk of critical
mineral
shortages
End Customers
Customer
concerns remain
to be addressed
before mass
adoption, e.g.
range anxiety,
convenience,
and cost
EV’s to elevate
customer
expectations for
vehicle digital
experiences
Government
Regulations
Government
regulations and
incentives to
play important
role for EV
investment and
ESG strategies
CAR to publish
“white papers”
and research
Sources: CAR research
6. 6
CENTER FOR AUTOMOTIVE RESEARCH
Sources: CAR research, Wards historical 2020-2021; forecasts as of 27 April, 2022
Forecasting Dilemma = OEM Planning Challenges
U.S. EV sales %-total 2020-2021 actual; 2022-2030 projected
7. 7
CENTER FOR AUTOMOTIVE RESEARCH 7
North American Electrified Vehicle Production Models &
Volumes Projected to Grow Substantially
2020 – 2028 Forecast
Source: LMC Automotive
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
ELECTRIFIED NAMEPLATES
PRODUCED IN NORTH AMERICAN
PLANTS (#)
BEV PHEV FHEV MHEV EREV FCEV
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
45.0%
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Millions
TOTAL ELECTRIFIED VEHICLES
PRODUCED IN NORTH AMERICAN PLANTS
(%-TOTAL)
MHEV Total
MHEV (48V) Total
FHEV Total
EREV Total
FCEV Total
PHEV Total
BEV Total
Grand Total Electrified share
Grand Total BEV/PHEV/FCEV share
8. 8
CENTER FOR AUTOMOTIVE RESEARCH
EV Releases, Sales, and Production Projections
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2027 2030
Rivian
Production begins in their
Georgia plant
Audi
Starts production in
Chinese that aims to
produce 150,000 EVs/year
Genesis
EVs will be the only new models
Ford
Have sold a total of 1M EVs
Begins battery production in
Kentucky plant
GM
30 models by this time
Kia
20% of sales in Euro, NA, and
Korea will be EVs
Audi
20 models by this time
VW
ID.2 production will begin
Ram
Ram 1500 EV released
Mercedes
50% of sales to be EVs
Nissan
EV plant will begin assembly in
Mississippi
Kia
14 EV models by this time
GM
400,000 EVs delivered
Ford
600,000 EVs produced
Kia
Two EV models will be
released
VW
Ability to produce 1M
EVs/year in China
Stellantis
First Jeep EV released
Source:
Ford
40%-50% of global vehicle
volume to be electric
Subaru
40% of global sales will be EVs
or HEVs
GM
50% of NA assembly capacity
will be converted to EV
production
GM
70% of Euro sales will be EVs
Hyundai
Sell 1.87M EV/year
11 New models
Kia
Sell 1.2M EV/year
Volvo
Fully Electric
Toyota
Sell 3.5M EVs/year
Stellantis
50% of US sales BEV
100 % of Euro sales BEV
25 models by this time
Nissan
40% of sales to be EVs
Genesis
Internal combustion vehicles
phased out
Tesla
936k EVs delivered
Ford
Mache E sells over
27,000
Audi
80,000 EV sold
GM
Chevy sold over 20,000
EVs
Mercedes
99,000 EVs sold
Jaguar
i-Pace sold 9,970
Rivian
Delivered and sold
around 1,000 EVs
Kia
Over 8,000 EVs sold
VW
263K BEVs delivered
Volvo
25K BEVs sold
GM
Six-fold increase in EV
truck and SUV production
Ford
Projecting at least a 25%
growth in EV revenue and
several new models
Tesla
Projecting over 1.4M EVs
delivered
9. 9
CENTER FOR AUTOMOTIVE RESEARCH
Announced Automaker AV/EV-Related
Investments by Country
2015 to February 2022
The automotive industry has
invested heavily in Electrified Vehicle
(EV) and Automated Vehicle (AV)
technology and capacity since 2017.
In 2021 and the beginning of 2022,
some of the largest investments in
the U.S. automotive industry history
were announced, totaling more than
USD 40.0 billion.
1) Ford: Blue Oval City and Blue Oval
SK, USD 11.4 billion total
2) Rivian: Texas assembly plant and
Georgia assembly plant, USD 10
billion total
3) Hyundai-Kia: for EVs, and
hydrogen fueling infrastructure, USD
7.4 billion
4) Stellantis and LG Energy joint
venture battery manufacturing
facility in Windsor, Canada, CAD 5.0
billion (USD 4.1 billion)
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
$35
$40
$45
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 YTD
Billions
USA MEXICO CANADA
Source: CAR Book of Deals Database
Editor's Notes
Updated: 5/4/2022 By: Tina
Updated: 5/4/2022 By: Yen edit
The number of electrified vehicle models produced in North America is forecast to rapidly increase, 62 in 2020 doubling by 2022 and reaching 278 by 2028 (4.5X).
Volume increases from 1.2M to 6.7M (5.6X) (half BEV/PHEV/FCEV)
Methodology and sources:
Only represented if the following conditions apply:
Official company announcement or statement by corporate officer
Reference to specific year, if not more specific
Specified SAE J3016 level 3+ or provides enough detail to be confidently inferred
Mixed vehicle traffic (does not include protected guideways or pedestrian-only zones)
If level 4/5, no human operator (really)
Motional:
https://motional.com/news/introducing-motionals-next-generation-robotaxi-the-hyundai-ioniq-5
Udelve (Intel-Mobileye ADS):
https://www.intel.com/content/www/us/en/newsroom/news/mobileye-udelv-deal-autonomous-delivery.html
TransDev (Mobileye ADS):
https://www.intel.com/content/www/us/en/newsroom/news/mobileye-transdev-ats-lohr-group-av-shuttles.html
Waymo:
https://www.theverge.com/2017/11/7/16615290/waymo-self-driving-safety-driver-chandler-autonomous -
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/waymo-tests-rider-only-looks-170335188.html
https://twitter.com/EricPaulDennis/status/1227618453743374338?s=20
Audi:
https://www.audiusa.com/newsroom/topics/2016/audi-piloted-driving -
http://spectrum.ieee.org/cars-that-think/transportation/self-driving/nvidia-ceo-announces
http://audimagazine.com.au/post/audi-ai-traffic-jam-pilot
https://blog.caranddriver.com/traffic-jamming-in-the-2019-audi-a8-we-let-automated-driving-tech-take-the-wheel/
Also, that guy Stadler said level 5 by 2025-2030 but he was later arrested and fired.
Program cancelled: https://europe.autonews.com/automakers/audi-quits-bid-give-a8-level-3-autonomy
Level 4: https://spectrum.ieee.org/cars-that-think/transportation/self-driving/nvidia-ceo-announces
Lyft (GM ADS):
https://medium.com/@johnzimmer/the-third-transportation-revolution-27860f05fa91#.w4y2aw3ug
Ford-Argo:
https://media.ford.com/content/fordmedia/fna/us/en/news/2016/08/16/ford-targets-fully-autonomous-vehicle-for-ride-sharing-in-2021.html
https://fordauthority.com/2020/04/ford-autonomous-vehicle-services-postponed-until-2022-because-of-covid-19/
Argo-Lyft tie-up stated YES safety drivers : https://media.ford.com/content/fordmedia/fna/us/en/news/2021/07/21/argo-ai-ford-lyft-network.html
BMW:
https://www.press.bmwgroup.com/global/article/detail/T0261586EN/bmw-group-intel-and-mobileye-team-up-to-bring-fully-autonomous-driving-to-streets-by-2021?language=en
https://www.bmwblog.com/2017/10/29/bmw-shares-us-autonomous-technology-roadmap/
https://www.bmwblog.com/2018/09/24/klaus-frohlich-to-talks-about-bmw-inext/
https://bmwmovement.org/bmw-releases-safety-assessment-report-of-autonomous-vehicle-testing/
Mercedes:
https://europe.autonews.com/article/20170310/ANE/170309921/daimler-r-d-boss-outlines-mercedes-self-driving-ev-connectivity-plans
http://www.forbes.com/sites/matthewdepaula/2013/09/30/autonomous-driving-will-become-an-option-on-regular-mercedes-models-by-2020/#594c825d275c
https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/motor-shows-shanghai-auto-show/mercedes-owners-drive-hands-free-autonomous-tech-2020 - https://www.futurecar.com/2728/Mercedes-to-Offer-Level-3-Autonomous-Driving-on-the-Next-S-Class
https://www.daimler.com/innovation/case/autonomous/legal-framework.html
Volvo:
http://www.businessinsider.com/volvos-first-self-driving-car-is-coming-in-2020-2016-5
http://www.nydailynews.com/autos/news/volvo-self-driving-car-technology-pilot-program-gothenburg-article-1.3442614 http://www.autonews.com/article/20171212/COPY01/312129966/volvos-drive-me-takes-detour-on-road-to-full-autonomy
https://www.thecarconnection.com/news/1117336_self-driving-volvo-xc90-crossover-suv-planned-for-2021
VW (Mobileye ADS)
https://newsroom.intel.com/news-releases/volkswagen-mobileye-champion-motors-invest-israel-deploy-first-autonomous-ev-ride-hailing-service/#gs.3eiy82
https://www.calcalistech.com/ctech/articles/0,7340,L-3754013,00.html
VW (Argo ADS)
https://media.vw.com/en-us/releases/1481
VW-Audi (2021)
This was previously in their “Strategy 2025 Plan.” It no longer is and I lost a good link. Here’s a Wayback link:
https://web.archive.org/web/20170808175159/http://www.volkswagenag.com/presence/konzern/pdf/Group_Initiatives_Strategy_2025.pdf
https://web.archive.org/web/20170831092154/http://together.volkswagenag.com:80/en/
Moar VW: Vague plans for 2030: https://techcrunch.com/2021/07/13/volkswagens-new-business-strategy-puts-software-and-autonomous-driving-front-and-center/
https://www.volkswagenag.com/en/group/strategy.html
“The aim of the fifth initiative is to bring highly automated driving functions to market as a core competency from 2021. This involves private vehicles, shared mobility systems and commercial mobility providers.”
Comma.AI:
https://youtu.be/aqdYbwY9vPU?t=1185 “It’s going to be at least another 3 years before we solve the problem.”
https://twitter.com/comma_ai/status/939221105272692736
2getthere:
https://www.maakindustrie.nl/nieuws/autonome-parkshuttle-gaat-openbare-weg-rijden (confirmed via Twitter) , later said, “late 2020, early 2021” https://twitter.com/2getthereZF/status/1176899924463456256?s=20
old promise: https://www.2getthere.eu/1st-autonomous-vehicle-public-road/
Cruise:
Dan Ammann, November 30 2017, investor conference. Repeated several times since even by Barra and Vought
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-gm-autonomous/gm-plans-large-scale-launch-of-self-driving-cars-in-u-s-cities-in-2019-idUSKBN1DU2H0
And kaput. https://medium.com/cruise/the-next-steps-to-scale-start-in-san-francisco-713315f3a142
Dubai: https://www.mediaoffice.ae/en/news/2021/April/12-04/Hamdan-bin-Mohammed-attends-signing-of-agreement-between-RTA-and-Cruise-to-operate-self#.YHheusjViRo.twitter
Tesla:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-selfdriving-idUSBRE98H01720130918
http://fortune.com/2015/12/21/elon-musk-interview/
https://electrek.co/2017/12/08/elon-musk-tesla-self-driving-timeline/
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4298445-tesla-inc-tsla-ceo-elon-musk-q3-2019-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=single
https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/elon-musk-full-self-driving-tesla-earnings-call/#:~:text=According%20to%20Musk%2C%20the%20FSD,%2C%22%20according%20to%20the%20CEO.
Honda:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/honda-still-on-track-for-at-least-some-kind-of-self-driving-car-in-2020-2019-12-09?mod=mw_share_twitter
https://www.theverge.com/2017/6/8/15761272/honda-self-driving-cars-autonomous-level-4-date
https://hondanews.com/en-US/releases/release-e86048ba0d6e80b260e72d443f0e4d47-honda-launches-next-generation-honda-sensing-elite-safety-system-with-level-3-automated-driving-features-in-japan <- Have not confirmed these have actually been leased to peoples.
Transdev (Mobileye ADS):
https://www.intel.com/content/www/us/en/newsroom/news/mobileye-transdev-ats-lohr-group-av-shuttles.html
Nissan:
https://newsroom.nissan-europe.com/uk/en-gb/media/videos/108589/nissan-announces-autonomous-drive-plan-by-2020
Andy Palmer “True independence and mobility for all.” TBF, said this WAY back in 2013.
Later said 2022. Revision? Something else?
https://www.nissanusa.com/blog/autonomous-drive-car
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-06/nissan-plans-to-introduce-fully-autonomous-driving-cars-in-2022
Nuro:
https://medium.com/nuro/az-pilot-launch-33cceb55c871
Mobileye with SIXT – Doesn’t actually pledge to remove driver in 2022.
https://www.intel.com/content/www/us/en/newsroom/news/mobileye-sixt-plan-new-robotaxi-service.html
May Mobility:
https://medium.com/mobility-entrepreneurship/interview-with-alisyn-malek-co-founder-and-coo-of-may-mobility-bbdd48dfe5c
Drive.AI
https://www.theverge.com/2018/7/30/17622540/drive-ai-self-driving-car-ride-share-texas “Goal is to pull driver out of vehicle by end of year.”
Rivian:
https://www.rivian.com/technology
Plan 2020 debut of electric pickup. Website claims level 3 automation will be standard.
Baidu:
http://apollo.auto/
Project Apollo timeline: 2019 “Production-level Geo-fenced city roads autonomous driving”
TuSimple:
Chief Product officer pegs late 2020 to 2021 for “commercial driverless operation.” https://moneymaven.io/mishtalk/economics/self-driving-truck-startup-tusimple-confident-of-commercial-driverless-by-2021--FY5ce4I4UCGUPXRgzavRQ/
VP of Product actually claimed technology will be ready by late 2020 (but I don’;t have room in that year) https://www.ttnews.com/articles/tusimple-proceeds-plans-build-worlds-largest-self-driving-truck-fleet
Success:
https://electrek.co/2021/12/29/tusimple-successfully-operates-80-mile-autonomous-semi-truck-ride-on-public-roads-without-a-human-present/
Renault:
https://group.renault.com/en/news/blog-renault/renault-presents-eyes-offhands-off-technology-for-the-autonomous-vehicle-of-the-future/
Yandex:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nhqyrze30bk
PSA Groupe:
https://www.groupe-psa.com/en/story/en-route-vers-la-voiture-autonome/ (2024)
I had them down for 2023 level 3, but I didn’t document and can’t find the press release as everything was deleted with Stellantis.
Making this grey as Stellantis probably shouldn’t be associated with earlier pledges.
Hyundai (w Aurora):
https://www.hyundai.news/eu/articles/press-releases/hyundai-motor-and-aurora-partner-to-develop-level-4-autonomous-vehicles-by-2021.html
Aurora:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1zr0J6h6islsJoHSVKIHwkh1k2RaCCjwb/view
p. 46: “Aurora anticipates beginning to generate revenue from trucks without drivers in 2023.” Ridehailing in 2024.
Plus.AI. https://plus.ai/investors.html?gclid=CjwKCAjwjJmIBhA4EiwAQdCbxmWmN8oB8EJIJvnP2JSC2jQFcNHHLkypiO8p85QETKD-OCGLdCY2WBoCHcoQAvD_BwE
--------------------------------------------------
March 2019 revision
Removing suppliers since they aren’t really pledging deployment, but a “platform.”
Conti with Nvidia pledged L2-5 platform by 2021: https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/continental-and-nvidia-partner-to-enable-worldwide-production-of-ai-self-driving-cars
Aptive/Mobileye level 4/5 “turnkey solution” by 2019. (relates to VW 2019 Israel promise): http://www.aptiv.com/media/article/2017/11/26/mobileye-and-delphi-to-establish-partnership-for-sae-level-4-5-automated-driving-solution-for-2019
Bosch L3 platform in 2020: https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B7uiYk-iv-WNZXItSFpQaWpsWGs/view?usp=sharing
Aptive/Mobileye: http://www.aptiv.com/media/article/2017/11/26/mobileye-and-delphi-to-establish-partnership-for-sae-level-4-5-automated-driving-solution-for-2019
NVIDIA: Will have chip in 2019, but hasn’t really promised capability.
https://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/2017/10/10/gtc-europe-holodeck-drive-px/
Rando:
Toyota:
Not specific enough to hold them to a promise.
“The first milestone comes in 2020, when Toyota plans to introduce vehicles capable of driving themselves on highways.”
https://www.autonews.com/mobility-report/toyotas-moonshot-self-driving-car-sale-year
Yandex:
https://www.autonews.com/mobility-report/russias-yandex-plans-bold-step-self-driving-cars (might actually be planning dedicated tele-operator)
Had this as a promise, but removed it when Yandex demoed crewless operation in Ann Arbor. It’s not the same but it’s too confusing to have both.