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Green safe connected trucks 2020

This document provides a summary of the global medium-heavy duty truck market outlook through 2022. Some key points: 1) Global truck sales are expected to reach 4.6 million units by 2022, driven by growth in emerging markets. The 22-27 ton weight segment is projected to be the most attractive globally. 2) Advanced powertrains such as natural gas and hybrids will see increased adoption, though diesel will remain dominant. North America and China will show greater preference for these technologies. 3) Manufacturers are focusing on platform commonality to reduce costs, with 30 global platforms expected to make up about a third of the market by 2022. Regulation compliance and new business models will be

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Global Medium-Heavy Duty Truck Market: Vision 2022 SANDEEP KAR Global Director, Automotive & Transportation Research
Vision 2022: Big Picture
2014-2022 CV Industry Senior Management Top-of-Mind Issues Global CV 2020 Vision: Senior Executive Top of Mind Issues, Global, 2014- 2022 Last frontiers of globalization- Next 11, Africa 5 4 3 2 1 0 2.Regulation compliance pressures 3.Global manufacturing and sourcing shifts 4.Rapid proliferation of electronics 8. New truck types (e.g. mega-trucks, city trucks, etc.) and pricing models 5.Urban logistics, bricks-and- clicks, and multi-modality 7. Service and maintenance revenue focused business models 6. Autonomous driven connected trucks Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis. Note: Data collected from 2013-2014 interviews and discussions with Sr. Manager to CEO level executives of truck OEMs and tier-1 suppliers in NA, EU, APAC, China, India, Latin America and other regions
Correlation Between Truck Buying Cycle and Industrial Growth, United States, 1998–2016 • Truck cycle peaks occur every 4th / 5th year. • Truck cycle peaks precede industrial production peak by a year. • This correlation suggests that the next truck cycle peak could be in 2014– 2015 followed by an potential economic upturn in 2016. 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 Truck Buying Cycles vis-a-vis Economic Cycles Increasing Volatility 105.0 95.0 85.0 75.0 65.0 55.0 Strong Economy • Robust economic activity • Class 8 growth exceeded overall 1998 truck growth sales during much of the 1990s, peaking in 1999 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Heavy-duty Truck Dealership Market: 2004 Artificial Boosters • Pre-buy activity • Regulation compliance • Cheaper trucks 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 US Annual Industrial Production Index US Class 8 Actual Units Sold Used Class 8 Estimated Units Sold Industrial Production Index (2007=100) Units Sold (‘000) Low Replacement • Increase in replacement cycle to 5 – 6 years • Slowdown of economy • Tremendous demand for used trucks Pent-up Demand • Growth in US manufacturing and industrial production • Pent-up replacement demand • Short supply of MY ‘08 and ‘09 used trucks
Global GDP & Commercial Truck Market Growth Outlook Growth in BRIC and Next 11 economies will offer strength to global truck demand. Developed economies to start offering momentum from 2015 onwards Global CV Vision 2020: World GDP and CV Growth Outlook – Global: 2012 – 2022 Region GDP Growth Estimates: 2012 – 2022 (%) MCV Growth (CAGR%) HCV Growth (CAGR%) Overall CV Growth (CAGR%) Market Opportunity North America 2.1 – 2.5 4.3 3.6 3.9 Moderate South America 4.0 – 5.0 4.4 5.7 5.3 Moderate-High Europe 1.0 – 1.5 4.2 3.8 3.9 Moderate China 6.5 – 7.0 2.9 5.4 4.7 Moderate-High India 6.0 – 7.0 4.4 7.0 5.9 Moderate-High Russia 3.5 – 4.0 10.3 8.4 8.9 High Next 11 5.0 – 6.0 7.1 9.2 8.2 High RoW 4.0 – 5.0 8.4 8.2 8.3 High Global 4.0 – 4.5 5.1 5.7 5.5 Moderate-High
Global Medium & Heavy Truck Market Forecast Despite short-term global headwinds, stabilizing BRIC markets and rising Next 11 and African markets to elevate global MCV and HCV sales to 4.6 Million by 2022 Global CV 2020 Vision: Unit Shipments – Global: 2013–2022 1,800,000 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 MCV HCV Next 11 includes the following countries: Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines, Turkey, South Korea, Vietnam, and Bangladesh. Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2012. Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis. MCV: 6T to 16T HCV: 16T and above 0 North America South America China India Russia Europe Next 11 RoW 2013 2022 ~2.7 2022 Regional Shares million ~4.6 million 34% 36% 64% 66% Units 44% 31% 24% 42% 21% 45% 53% 55% 69% 76% 58% 72% 79% 55% 47% 28% 5.5% CAGR Growth
Vehicle Platform Strategies of Key Global HD OEMs By 2022, 30 Global HD Truck Platforms are Expected Collectively Accounting One Out of Every Three HD Trucks Made That Year Global CV Vision 2020: Heavy-duty Truck Market: Key Truck Platforms – Global: 2013 and 2022 3 4 6 4 Note: All figures are rounded. The base year is 2011. Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis. 8 7 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 Note: Within the split Auman GTL, and MAN SITRAK platforms are accounted to both individual OEMs involved, but are counted only once for computing the total. 6 3 6 3 5 4 3 3 3 3 2 1 2 2 7 2 7 3 6 3 6 3 6 2 5 2 4 1 5 1 5 2 5 2 3 1 4 2 3 1 3 2 0 Observed no. of distinct platforms, 2013 Estimated no. of global platforms available, 2013 Observed no. of distinct platforms, 2022 Estimated no. of global platforms available, 2022 Beiqi Foton Dongfeng Motor Corp. CNHTC Ashok Leyland TATA Motors Navistar Inc. PACCAR Inc. IVECO Scania AB MAN SE Volvo Group Daimler Group 58 24 55 30
Price Attractive Segment by Region – 2022 22 to 27 Ton GVWR Segment to Emerge as Most Attractive Among Trucks Globally at Price Band of $45,000 to $75,000 Global CV Vision 2020: Highest-selling Weight Segment in Each Region – Global: 2022 South America North America China India Russia Europe Next 11 RoW $160,000 $140,000 $120,000 $100,000 $80,000 $60,000 $40,000 $20,000 $0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 GVWR (kilogram) Size of the bubble: Sales units of top segments in each country in 2022. Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2013. Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
Fleet Operations Overview – North America In 2022 Fleets Operating in NA Should Expect an Average Annual Cost of $183,000 or $1.9 Mer Mile, a 10 Percent Increase Over 2013’s Operating Cost Global CV 2020 Vision: Fleet Cost Overview – North America: 2013 and 2022 Tires 2.0 3.0 Permits / Toll 2.0 3.0 Maintenance 11.0 9.0 4.0 Insurance 3.0 10.0 Tractor / Trailer 12.0 Driver Benefits 9.0 11.0 Driver Wages 28.0 31.0 Fuel 33.0 29.0 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2013 2022
Global Powertrain Market Outlook: 2022
Global Medium & Heavy Truck Market Forecast 2013-2022 China and NA to show greater preference towards advanced powertrain systems; NG to emerge as fastest growing powertrain technology across regions Gasoline 1.4 6 1 0.5 0.1 0.3 0.1 2.1 HEV 3 4 1.3 4.9 0.8 1 4.6 0.6 NG 8.9 16.8 6.4 10.2 6.25 7.45 8.25 4.4 Diesel 86.7 73.2 91.3 84.4 92.85 91.25 87.05 92.9 2013 2022 Segment: GVWR 6T and above Global CV Vision 2020: Powertrain Mix, 2022 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% World NA SA China India Russia Europe RoW Global Medium-heavy truck sales to reach 4.6 million by 2022 ~2.7 million Units ~4.6 million
Advanced Diesel Engine Technologies – Weighted Average Preference Ranking Heavy-duty Engine Market: Weighted Average Preference Ranking of Advanced Powertrain Technologies by Key OEMs, North America, 2014 • Downspeeding emerges as top preference across all OEMs. • WHR is critical due to significant benefits the technology offers. • All OEMs are expected to focus on after-treatment technologies, owing to regulatory mandates. Note: 1.Ranking is on a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 being most preferred, and 1 being least preferred. 2.Weighted average ranking used as representative of industry. Individual OEM level rankings are detailed in respective OEM profiles. 7.9 7.8 8.4 7.6 8.2 Prognostics 7.9 Engine 8.1 7.5 In-cylinder Improvements Downsizing Downspeeding Waste Heat Recovery Advanced After-treatment Turbochargers & Related Boosting Technologies Hybridization
Global Natural Gas Truck Sales Forecasts Global Sales Expected to Reach 390,000 units by 2022; North America and China to Emerge as Leading Markets for NG Trucks Global CV Vision 2020: Natural Gas Sales Forecast, Split by Region by Type, 2013 and 2022 NA SA China India Russia West Europe Next 11 RoW 10% 2% 9% 5% 2013 2022 Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2012. Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis. 38% 32% 6% 5% 7% 22% 5% 41% 7% 5% 6% 2013 Regional Shares 2022 Regional Shares Unit Shipments ~390,000 ~35,100 CAGR: 36 %
Global Hybrid & Electric Truck Sales Forecasts Global Sales Expected to be Driven by Impetus from the NA, Europe and Chinese Markets. Japan Emerging as a Major Hub for Hybrid Components Global CV Vision 2020: Hybrid and Electric Sales Forecast, Split by Region by Type, 2013 and 2022 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 29% 61% 14% 10,000 17% 9% 10% 86% 0 47% CAGR Growth 2022 Regional Shares ~4,100 6% 39% 94% 83% 91% 69% 90% ~137,100 34% 2013 2022 North America Electric Hybrid South America China India Russia Europe RoW Units Next 11 includes the following countries: Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines, Turkey, South Korea, Vietnam, and Bangladesh. Trucks with GVWR 6T and above included 66% 31% 71%
2014 U.S. HD Fleet Managers’ Voice: Powertrain Technology Summary Convenience of servicing Primary reason for selecting OEM nameplate engines 4% vs. 2% Warranty and residual value Most influential factors in powertrain technology purchase process Semi / Fully automatic transmissions Currently one of the most prevalently used and important advanced powertrain technology in fleets 23% Estimated future growth rate Mean percent of fleets that currently versus plan to have diesel-electric hybrid trucks < 4% Mean percent of fleets that currently or plan to use CNG, LNG, or DME
Global Engine Displacement and Power Recalibration Dominant Narrative in Diesel Technologies in Engine Downsizing in Developed Markets Contrasted Against Engine Upsizing in Developing Markets Truck Engine Power Bandwidths, China, 2010 and 2020 HD Truck Diesel Engine Displacement Overview, North America, 2011 & 2018 HD Truck Diesel Engine Displacement Overview, Western Europe, 2012 & 2018 15 14.8 14.6 14.4 14.2 14 13.8 13.6 13.4 13.2 13 12.8 12.6 12.4 12.2 12 2011 2018 14 13.8 13.6 13.4 13.2 13 12.8 12.6 12.4 12.2 12 11.8 11.6 11.4 11.2 11 2012 2018 700 Power (kW) 400 kW 350 kW (Medium-High Duty) 2010 2020 600 500 400 300 100 MDT LDT 200 kW 100 kW 60k W HDT 220 kW HDT 600 kW MDT 300 kW 140 kW LDT 80 kW 200 Note: All figures are rounded. Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis. ~ 3% reduction ~ 3 % reduction 13.7 – 14.1 13.4 – 13.7 12.3 – 12.7 11.9 – 12.3 Weighted average displacement (in L) Weighted average displacement (in L)
Global Telematics Market Outlook 2022
New Fleet Management Systems Vendors Evolving – Expanding Value Chain Going forward most value chain partners will consider offering proprietary FMS solutions; Consolidations (acquisition / partnership) will be likely outcome Most of the value chain partners of the trucking industry are eyeing this market Tires Internet Companies ex: Google Truck OEMs ex: Freightliner, Volvo, PACCAR, International Telematics Companies ex: TomTom Wireless Companies ex: Verizon, AT&T Energy Companies ex: Shell, Exxon Tier-I Companies ex: Cummins, WABCO, Pirelli, Michelin, Continental After OEMs, it is Tier-1 Suppliers That Are Now Focusing on This Segment. Cummins, Eaton, WABCO, Michelin
Proliferation of Telematics is a Global Phenomenon: FMS Services by Region / Country CV Telematics Market: Key FMS services by region, Global, 2014 Turkey • Digital Tachograph • Driver Management • Fuel Management India • Vehicle Tracking, • Fuel Management • Safety of vehicles and Drivers Latin America • Stolen Vehicle Recovery. • Fuel Management • Insurance Service Russia • Emergency Services • Track and Trace • Two way messaging Australia • Vehicle Tracking, • Driver Management • Order Management China • Fuel Management • Driver Management European Union • Track and Trace • Driver Behavior • Vehicle Management • Fuel Management • Regulatory Mandated Services South Africa • Track and Trace • Stolen Vehicle Recovery • Driver Management Middle East • Track and Trace • Trailer Temperature Monitoring North America • EOBR • Prognostics / Preventive maintenance • Driver Management • Fuel Management
Commercial Vehicle Prognostics – Stakeholders Predictive maintenance and predictive analytics will increasingly encompass various vehicle systems and industry participant groups Prognostics Market: Prognostics Stakeholders, North America and Europe, 2012–2020 Aftermarket Vendors Independent Service Stations OEMs Tier I Suppliers Fleet Manager Fleet Maintenance Software Analytics Companies Note: Warehouse distributors (WDS); Independent Retail Channels(IRCs). Source: Frost & Sullivan Dealerships
True Value of Prognostics Will Only Be Realized When Most Vehicular Systems are Encompassed by Using Electronic Interfaces Fuel Fuel leakage Fuel quality Fuel injectors Fuel level Catalytic Converter Emissions Tires Out of balance tires Low tire pressure Tire wear Transmission Transmission Issues Coolant Cooling system failure Coolant pump failure Coolant hose failure Coolant level Air filter Dirty air filter Emissions Alternator Alternator problems Alternator deterioration Starter failure Engine Engine Issues Emissions Ignition Ignition Issues Brakes Brake problems Brake pressure Hard braking Oil Oil change needed Oil level Oil temperature
Prognostics Installed Base Estimates – NA & EU By 2017 Over 1 Million Commercial Vehicles in North America and Western Europe to Subscribe to Prognostics Applications Prognostics Market: Prognostics installed base estimates, North America and Europe, 2012-2020 Evolution of prognostics technology, moderately mature business models and demand from end users to increase vehicles uptime will push prognostics demand faster beyond 2017 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 - NORTH AMERICA 102,731 156,094 230,159 323,177 449,550 597,014 783,549 991,008 1,205,29 EUROPE 80,000 113,792 165,486 252,945 361,205 491,239 680,419 859,384 1,064,83
Purchase Intentions of Telematics Technologies – North America All surveyed fleet managers have some level of interest in critical event / safety system intervention alert and remote diagnostics and prognostics technologies. Prognostics Market: End-user Survey, North America, 2012–2020 Telematics Technology # Sample size does not support actionable analysis. Level of Purchase Intention Active (Considering) Passive (Might Consider) Q16: Which of the following best describes the consideration your fleet would give toward the following telematics technologies? No Interest Critical event / safety system intervention alert (N=30#) 37% 63% - Navigation-aided regulation compliance (N=36#) 36% 56% 8% Real-time traffic / dynamic navigation (N=46#) 33% 58% 9% Accident reconstruction analysis data (N=45#) 29% 62% 9% Remote diagnostics and prognostics (N=44#) 23% 77% - Back-office automation-dispatching (N=28#) 21% 75% 4% Geofencing (N=38#) 21% 66% 13% Stolen vehicle tracking (N=56) 20% 64% 16% Voice communication (N=33#) 18% 64% 18%
2014 U.S. HD Fleet Managers’ Voice: Telematics Technology Summary Improved regulatory compliance Most influential factor in telematics technology purchase process Driver performance monitoring Currently the most prevalently used and most important telematics technology in fleets 4% Estimated future growth rate 55% Percent interested in integrating remote/ prognostic data with maintenance management system and parts inventories 52% Percent of fleet managers consider engine related prognostic data most valuable 29% Estimated future growth rate for prognostics
Future of Connectivity in Urban Logistics Mobile Resource Management Focused Decision Making Poised to Become More Proactive than Reactive; Efficiency Gains in the Scale of 1990’s Coming Soon Connectivity and Urban Logistics: Evolution of Technology Platforms, Global, 2010 – 2025 Reactive Proactive 2025 2020 2015 2010 Telematics Intelligent Transport Systems Social Media Integration Sensors & Terrain / Weather Mapping Traffic Predicting Software Big Data Catalysis • Bigger and better data will enable logistics industry participants gain both panoramic and granular views of their business processes • One Simple Application- Shipping companies can improve on-time performance by leveraging shipping port availability, weather, traffic, and prognostics data • Proactive decision making derived from power of big data can catalyse better decisions, precise interventions, and accurate predictions enabling bottom-line growth
Global Safety Market Outlook 2020
Truck Safety Too Many Technologies Chasing Too Few Consumer Dollars- Integrated Systems on the Rise Global MCV-HCV Market: Overview of Trucks Safety Technologies, 2012 – 2020 Roll Stability Control System Lane Departure Warning System Electronic Stability Control System Blind Spot Detection System Anti-lock Braking System Electronic Braking System Integrated Safety Systems Forward Collision Warning System Adaptive Cruise Control System Driver Drowsiness Warning System Telematics Based Safety Applications Tire Pressure Monitoring System Driver Information & Warning Systems Active Chassis Control Legend Systems Integrated Safety Systems
Growth Opportunities in Safety Systems Market (2010-2022) TPMS, Stability Control Systems, and ABS to Experience Highest Traction in Global Markets; Integrated Safety Systems and Telematics Based Systems to Experience Rising penetration in North America and Europe Global CV Vision 2020: Safety Systems Adoption Potential Snapshot (Global), 2010-2022 Tire pressure monitoring systems TRIAD, BRIC, Next 11 Lane departure warning systems TRIAD, Next 11 Forward collision warning systems TRIAD Blind spot detection systems TRIAD, BRIC, Next 11 Driver drowsiness warning systems TRIAD Anti-lock braking systems Electronic stability control systems Roll-over stability control systems Adaptive cruise control systems Electronic braking systems Integrated safety systems Global Telematics based safety applications DIWS ACCS ISS TBSA Regional / Global Penetration: Moderate Noticeable High TRIAD = North America, EU, Japan BRIC = Brazil, Russia, India, China Next 11 countries Global TRIAD TRIAD TRIAD, BRIC (select) TRIAD TRIAD, BRIC, Next 11
2014 U.S. HD Fleet Managers’ Voice: Advanced Safety Technology Summary Improved Safe Driving Practices Most influential factors in advanced safety technology purchase process Tire Related Safety Systems Gaining significant increase in fleet manager interest Stability Control Systems Most important advanced safety technology in fleets 19% Estimated future growth rate for RSC 12% Estimated future growth rate for ESC 32% Fleet managers expect to use trailer tire inflation systems in 2015
Common Multiplexed Architecture Across OEMs: Foundations for Developing Smart Trucks Global CV Vision 2020: Common Multiplexed Architecture, NA-EU, 2014-2022 Need for Robust, Effective and Efficient Electronics, Communication and Networking Architecture Enables seamless communication between vehicle and devices Single standardized platform will streamline product development for OEMs and Teir1 suppliers Since, necessary infrastructure is available, new devices addition will not require discrete system integration and Development of architecture in compliance with SAE standards. J1939, J1708, CAN, LIN etc - vehicle bus protocol used for communication and diagnostics among vehicle components Infotainment Regulation Compliance MULTIPLEXED ARCHITECTURE OBD HMI – Driver Comfort & Convenience Controls Telematics Connectivity Safety System Integration HVAC Chassis Control Handheld / Personal Device Connectivity Powertrain Control IEC 60068, ISO 16750 OBD – On-Board Diagnostics; HVAC – Heating Ventilating and Air-Conditioning customization
Vision 2022 Profit from Volume and Margins and Truck of the Future
Volume Growth from Developing Markets, Margin Growth from Advanced Technologies: Product Focus on HD Trucks and City Trucks Volume Growth BRIC Next 11 Africa North America Eurasia APAC LatAm Margin Growth Advanced Powertrain Telematics Safety Health, Wellness, Wellbeing Platforms Autonomous Driving
Vision 2022: What Will be the Traits of Truck of The Future? Green Safe Connected Smart
Key Contacts Sandeep Kar Global Director- Automotive & Transportation Research Direct: 416.490.7796 Fax: 416.490.1533 Email: sandeep.kar@frost.com
Green safe connected trucks 2020

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Green safe connected trucks 2020

  • 1.
    Global Medium-Heavy DutyTruck Market: Vision 2022 SANDEEP KAR Global Director, Automotive & Transportation Research
  • 2.
  • 3.
    2014-2022 CV IndustrySenior Management Top-of-Mind Issues Global CV 2020 Vision: Senior Executive Top of Mind Issues, Global, 2014- 2022 Last frontiers of globalization- Next 11, Africa 5 4 3 2 1 0 2.Regulation compliance pressures 3.Global manufacturing and sourcing shifts 4.Rapid proliferation of electronics 8. New truck types (e.g. mega-trucks, city trucks, etc.) and pricing models 5.Urban logistics, bricks-and- clicks, and multi-modality 7. Service and maintenance revenue focused business models 6. Autonomous driven connected trucks Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis. Note: Data collected from 2013-2014 interviews and discussions with Sr. Manager to CEO level executives of truck OEMs and tier-1 suppliers in NA, EU, APAC, China, India, Latin America and other regions
  • 4.
    Correlation Between TruckBuying Cycle and Industrial Growth, United States, 1998–2016 • Truck cycle peaks occur every 4th / 5th year. • Truck cycle peaks precede industrial production peak by a year. • This correlation suggests that the next truck cycle peak could be in 2014– 2015 followed by an potential economic upturn in 2016. 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 Truck Buying Cycles vis-a-vis Economic Cycles Increasing Volatility 105.0 95.0 85.0 75.0 65.0 55.0 Strong Economy • Robust economic activity • Class 8 growth exceeded overall 1998 truck growth sales during much of the 1990s, peaking in 1999 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Heavy-duty Truck Dealership Market: 2004 Artificial Boosters • Pre-buy activity • Regulation compliance • Cheaper trucks 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 US Annual Industrial Production Index US Class 8 Actual Units Sold Used Class 8 Estimated Units Sold Industrial Production Index (2007=100) Units Sold (‘000) Low Replacement • Increase in replacement cycle to 5 – 6 years • Slowdown of economy • Tremendous demand for used trucks Pent-up Demand • Growth in US manufacturing and industrial production • Pent-up replacement demand • Short supply of MY ‘08 and ‘09 used trucks
  • 5.
    Global GDP &Commercial Truck Market Growth Outlook Growth in BRIC and Next 11 economies will offer strength to global truck demand. Developed economies to start offering momentum from 2015 onwards Global CV Vision 2020: World GDP and CV Growth Outlook – Global: 2012 – 2022 Region GDP Growth Estimates: 2012 – 2022 (%) MCV Growth (CAGR%) HCV Growth (CAGR%) Overall CV Growth (CAGR%) Market Opportunity North America 2.1 – 2.5 4.3 3.6 3.9 Moderate South America 4.0 – 5.0 4.4 5.7 5.3 Moderate-High Europe 1.0 – 1.5 4.2 3.8 3.9 Moderate China 6.5 – 7.0 2.9 5.4 4.7 Moderate-High India 6.0 – 7.0 4.4 7.0 5.9 Moderate-High Russia 3.5 – 4.0 10.3 8.4 8.9 High Next 11 5.0 – 6.0 7.1 9.2 8.2 High RoW 4.0 – 5.0 8.4 8.2 8.3 High Global 4.0 – 4.5 5.1 5.7 5.5 Moderate-High
  • 6.
    Global Medium &Heavy Truck Market Forecast Despite short-term global headwinds, stabilizing BRIC markets and rising Next 11 and African markets to elevate global MCV and HCV sales to 4.6 Million by 2022 Global CV 2020 Vision: Unit Shipments – Global: 2013–2022 1,800,000 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 MCV HCV Next 11 includes the following countries: Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines, Turkey, South Korea, Vietnam, and Bangladesh. Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2012. Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis. MCV: 6T to 16T HCV: 16T and above 0 North America South America China India Russia Europe Next 11 RoW 2013 2022 ~2.7 2022 Regional Shares million ~4.6 million 34% 36% 64% 66% Units 44% 31% 24% 42% 21% 45% 53% 55% 69% 76% 58% 72% 79% 55% 47% 28% 5.5% CAGR Growth
  • 7.
    Vehicle Platform Strategiesof Key Global HD OEMs By 2022, 30 Global HD Truck Platforms are Expected Collectively Accounting One Out of Every Three HD Trucks Made That Year Global CV Vision 2020: Heavy-duty Truck Market: Key Truck Platforms – Global: 2013 and 2022 3 4 6 4 Note: All figures are rounded. The base year is 2011. Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis. 8 7 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 Note: Within the split Auman GTL, and MAN SITRAK platforms are accounted to both individual OEMs involved, but are counted only once for computing the total. 6 3 6 3 5 4 3 3 3 3 2 1 2 2 7 2 7 3 6 3 6 3 6 2 5 2 4 1 5 1 5 2 5 2 3 1 4 2 3 1 3 2 0 Observed no. of distinct platforms, 2013 Estimated no. of global platforms available, 2013 Observed no. of distinct platforms, 2022 Estimated no. of global platforms available, 2022 Beiqi Foton Dongfeng Motor Corp. CNHTC Ashok Leyland TATA Motors Navistar Inc. PACCAR Inc. IVECO Scania AB MAN SE Volvo Group Daimler Group 58 24 55 30
  • 8.
    Price Attractive Segmentby Region – 2022 22 to 27 Ton GVWR Segment to Emerge as Most Attractive Among Trucks Globally at Price Band of $45,000 to $75,000 Global CV Vision 2020: Highest-selling Weight Segment in Each Region – Global: 2022 South America North America China India Russia Europe Next 11 RoW $160,000 $140,000 $120,000 $100,000 $80,000 $60,000 $40,000 $20,000 $0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 GVWR (kilogram) Size of the bubble: Sales units of top segments in each country in 2022. Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2013. Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
  • 9.
    Fleet Operations Overview– North America In 2022 Fleets Operating in NA Should Expect an Average Annual Cost of $183,000 or $1.9 Mer Mile, a 10 Percent Increase Over 2013’s Operating Cost Global CV 2020 Vision: Fleet Cost Overview – North America: 2013 and 2022 Tires 2.0 3.0 Permits / Toll 2.0 3.0 Maintenance 11.0 9.0 4.0 Insurance 3.0 10.0 Tractor / Trailer 12.0 Driver Benefits 9.0 11.0 Driver Wages 28.0 31.0 Fuel 33.0 29.0 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2013 2022
  • 10.
  • 11.
    Global Medium &Heavy Truck Market Forecast 2013-2022 China and NA to show greater preference towards advanced powertrain systems; NG to emerge as fastest growing powertrain technology across regions Gasoline 1.4 6 1 0.5 0.1 0.3 0.1 2.1 HEV 3 4 1.3 4.9 0.8 1 4.6 0.6 NG 8.9 16.8 6.4 10.2 6.25 7.45 8.25 4.4 Diesel 86.7 73.2 91.3 84.4 92.85 91.25 87.05 92.9 2013 2022 Segment: GVWR 6T and above Global CV Vision 2020: Powertrain Mix, 2022 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% World NA SA China India Russia Europe RoW Global Medium-heavy truck sales to reach 4.6 million by 2022 ~2.7 million Units ~4.6 million
  • 12.
    Advanced Diesel EngineTechnologies – Weighted Average Preference Ranking Heavy-duty Engine Market: Weighted Average Preference Ranking of Advanced Powertrain Technologies by Key OEMs, North America, 2014 • Downspeeding emerges as top preference across all OEMs. • WHR is critical due to significant benefits the technology offers. • All OEMs are expected to focus on after-treatment technologies, owing to regulatory mandates. Note: 1.Ranking is on a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 being most preferred, and 1 being least preferred. 2.Weighted average ranking used as representative of industry. Individual OEM level rankings are detailed in respective OEM profiles. 7.9 7.8 8.4 7.6 8.2 Prognostics 7.9 Engine 8.1 7.5 In-cylinder Improvements Downsizing Downspeeding Waste Heat Recovery Advanced After-treatment Turbochargers & Related Boosting Technologies Hybridization
  • 13.
    Global Natural GasTruck Sales Forecasts Global Sales Expected to Reach 390,000 units by 2022; North America and China to Emerge as Leading Markets for NG Trucks Global CV Vision 2020: Natural Gas Sales Forecast, Split by Region by Type, 2013 and 2022 NA SA China India Russia West Europe Next 11 RoW 10% 2% 9% 5% 2013 2022 Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2012. Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis. 38% 32% 6% 5% 7% 22% 5% 41% 7% 5% 6% 2013 Regional Shares 2022 Regional Shares Unit Shipments ~390,000 ~35,100 CAGR: 36 %
  • 14.
    Global Hybrid &Electric Truck Sales Forecasts Global Sales Expected to be Driven by Impetus from the NA, Europe and Chinese Markets. Japan Emerging as a Major Hub for Hybrid Components Global CV Vision 2020: Hybrid and Electric Sales Forecast, Split by Region by Type, 2013 and 2022 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 29% 61% 14% 10,000 17% 9% 10% 86% 0 47% CAGR Growth 2022 Regional Shares ~4,100 6% 39% 94% 83% 91% 69% 90% ~137,100 34% 2013 2022 North America Electric Hybrid South America China India Russia Europe RoW Units Next 11 includes the following countries: Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines, Turkey, South Korea, Vietnam, and Bangladesh. Trucks with GVWR 6T and above included 66% 31% 71%
  • 15.
    2014 U.S. HDFleet Managers’ Voice: Powertrain Technology Summary Convenience of servicing Primary reason for selecting OEM nameplate engines 4% vs. 2% Warranty and residual value Most influential factors in powertrain technology purchase process Semi / Fully automatic transmissions Currently one of the most prevalently used and important advanced powertrain technology in fleets 23% Estimated future growth rate Mean percent of fleets that currently versus plan to have diesel-electric hybrid trucks < 4% Mean percent of fleets that currently or plan to use CNG, LNG, or DME
  • 16.
    Global Engine Displacementand Power Recalibration Dominant Narrative in Diesel Technologies in Engine Downsizing in Developed Markets Contrasted Against Engine Upsizing in Developing Markets Truck Engine Power Bandwidths, China, 2010 and 2020 HD Truck Diesel Engine Displacement Overview, North America, 2011 & 2018 HD Truck Diesel Engine Displacement Overview, Western Europe, 2012 & 2018 15 14.8 14.6 14.4 14.2 14 13.8 13.6 13.4 13.2 13 12.8 12.6 12.4 12.2 12 2011 2018 14 13.8 13.6 13.4 13.2 13 12.8 12.6 12.4 12.2 12 11.8 11.6 11.4 11.2 11 2012 2018 700 Power (kW) 400 kW 350 kW (Medium-High Duty) 2010 2020 600 500 400 300 100 MDT LDT 200 kW 100 kW 60k W HDT 220 kW HDT 600 kW MDT 300 kW 140 kW LDT 80 kW 200 Note: All figures are rounded. Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis. ~ 3% reduction ~ 3 % reduction 13.7 – 14.1 13.4 – 13.7 12.3 – 12.7 11.9 – 12.3 Weighted average displacement (in L) Weighted average displacement (in L)
  • 17.
  • 18.
    New Fleet ManagementSystems Vendors Evolving – Expanding Value Chain Going forward most value chain partners will consider offering proprietary FMS solutions; Consolidations (acquisition / partnership) will be likely outcome Most of the value chain partners of the trucking industry are eyeing this market Tires Internet Companies ex: Google Truck OEMs ex: Freightliner, Volvo, PACCAR, International Telematics Companies ex: TomTom Wireless Companies ex: Verizon, AT&T Energy Companies ex: Shell, Exxon Tier-I Companies ex: Cummins, WABCO, Pirelli, Michelin, Continental After OEMs, it is Tier-1 Suppliers That Are Now Focusing on This Segment. Cummins, Eaton, WABCO, Michelin
  • 19.
    Proliferation of Telematicsis a Global Phenomenon: FMS Services by Region / Country CV Telematics Market: Key FMS services by region, Global, 2014 Turkey • Digital Tachograph • Driver Management • Fuel Management India • Vehicle Tracking, • Fuel Management • Safety of vehicles and Drivers Latin America • Stolen Vehicle Recovery. • Fuel Management • Insurance Service Russia • Emergency Services • Track and Trace • Two way messaging Australia • Vehicle Tracking, • Driver Management • Order Management China • Fuel Management • Driver Management European Union • Track and Trace • Driver Behavior • Vehicle Management • Fuel Management • Regulatory Mandated Services South Africa • Track and Trace • Stolen Vehicle Recovery • Driver Management Middle East • Track and Trace • Trailer Temperature Monitoring North America • EOBR • Prognostics / Preventive maintenance • Driver Management • Fuel Management
  • 20.
    Commercial Vehicle Prognostics– Stakeholders Predictive maintenance and predictive analytics will increasingly encompass various vehicle systems and industry participant groups Prognostics Market: Prognostics Stakeholders, North America and Europe, 2012–2020 Aftermarket Vendors Independent Service Stations OEMs Tier I Suppliers Fleet Manager Fleet Maintenance Software Analytics Companies Note: Warehouse distributors (WDS); Independent Retail Channels(IRCs). Source: Frost & Sullivan Dealerships
  • 21.
    True Value ofPrognostics Will Only Be Realized When Most Vehicular Systems are Encompassed by Using Electronic Interfaces Fuel Fuel leakage Fuel quality Fuel injectors Fuel level Catalytic Converter Emissions Tires Out of balance tires Low tire pressure Tire wear Transmission Transmission Issues Coolant Cooling system failure Coolant pump failure Coolant hose failure Coolant level Air filter Dirty air filter Emissions Alternator Alternator problems Alternator deterioration Starter failure Engine Engine Issues Emissions Ignition Ignition Issues Brakes Brake problems Brake pressure Hard braking Oil Oil change needed Oil level Oil temperature
  • 22.
    Prognostics Installed BaseEstimates – NA & EU By 2017 Over 1 Million Commercial Vehicles in North America and Western Europe to Subscribe to Prognostics Applications Prognostics Market: Prognostics installed base estimates, North America and Europe, 2012-2020 Evolution of prognostics technology, moderately mature business models and demand from end users to increase vehicles uptime will push prognostics demand faster beyond 2017 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 - NORTH AMERICA 102,731 156,094 230,159 323,177 449,550 597,014 783,549 991,008 1,205,29 EUROPE 80,000 113,792 165,486 252,945 361,205 491,239 680,419 859,384 1,064,83
  • 23.
    Purchase Intentions ofTelematics Technologies – North America All surveyed fleet managers have some level of interest in critical event / safety system intervention alert and remote diagnostics and prognostics technologies. Prognostics Market: End-user Survey, North America, 2012–2020 Telematics Technology # Sample size does not support actionable analysis. Level of Purchase Intention Active (Considering) Passive (Might Consider) Q16: Which of the following best describes the consideration your fleet would give toward the following telematics technologies? No Interest Critical event / safety system intervention alert (N=30#) 37% 63% - Navigation-aided regulation compliance (N=36#) 36% 56% 8% Real-time traffic / dynamic navigation (N=46#) 33% 58% 9% Accident reconstruction analysis data (N=45#) 29% 62% 9% Remote diagnostics and prognostics (N=44#) 23% 77% - Back-office automation-dispatching (N=28#) 21% 75% 4% Geofencing (N=38#) 21% 66% 13% Stolen vehicle tracking (N=56) 20% 64% 16% Voice communication (N=33#) 18% 64% 18%
  • 24.
    2014 U.S. HDFleet Managers’ Voice: Telematics Technology Summary Improved regulatory compliance Most influential factor in telematics technology purchase process Driver performance monitoring Currently the most prevalently used and most important telematics technology in fleets 4% Estimated future growth rate 55% Percent interested in integrating remote/ prognostic data with maintenance management system and parts inventories 52% Percent of fleet managers consider engine related prognostic data most valuable 29% Estimated future growth rate for prognostics
  • 25.
    Future of Connectivityin Urban Logistics Mobile Resource Management Focused Decision Making Poised to Become More Proactive than Reactive; Efficiency Gains in the Scale of 1990’s Coming Soon Connectivity and Urban Logistics: Evolution of Technology Platforms, Global, 2010 – 2025 Reactive Proactive 2025 2020 2015 2010 Telematics Intelligent Transport Systems Social Media Integration Sensors & Terrain / Weather Mapping Traffic Predicting Software Big Data Catalysis • Bigger and better data will enable logistics industry participants gain both panoramic and granular views of their business processes • One Simple Application- Shipping companies can improve on-time performance by leveraging shipping port availability, weather, traffic, and prognostics data • Proactive decision making derived from power of big data can catalyse better decisions, precise interventions, and accurate predictions enabling bottom-line growth
  • 26.
  • 27.
    Truck Safety TooMany Technologies Chasing Too Few Consumer Dollars- Integrated Systems on the Rise Global MCV-HCV Market: Overview of Trucks Safety Technologies, 2012 – 2020 Roll Stability Control System Lane Departure Warning System Electronic Stability Control System Blind Spot Detection System Anti-lock Braking System Electronic Braking System Integrated Safety Systems Forward Collision Warning System Adaptive Cruise Control System Driver Drowsiness Warning System Telematics Based Safety Applications Tire Pressure Monitoring System Driver Information & Warning Systems Active Chassis Control Legend Systems Integrated Safety Systems
  • 28.
    Growth Opportunities inSafety Systems Market (2010-2022) TPMS, Stability Control Systems, and ABS to Experience Highest Traction in Global Markets; Integrated Safety Systems and Telematics Based Systems to Experience Rising penetration in North America and Europe Global CV Vision 2020: Safety Systems Adoption Potential Snapshot (Global), 2010-2022 Tire pressure monitoring systems TRIAD, BRIC, Next 11 Lane departure warning systems TRIAD, Next 11 Forward collision warning systems TRIAD Blind spot detection systems TRIAD, BRIC, Next 11 Driver drowsiness warning systems TRIAD Anti-lock braking systems Electronic stability control systems Roll-over stability control systems Adaptive cruise control systems Electronic braking systems Integrated safety systems Global Telematics based safety applications DIWS ACCS ISS TBSA Regional / Global Penetration: Moderate Noticeable High TRIAD = North America, EU, Japan BRIC = Brazil, Russia, India, China Next 11 countries Global TRIAD TRIAD TRIAD, BRIC (select) TRIAD TRIAD, BRIC, Next 11
  • 29.
    2014 U.S. HDFleet Managers’ Voice: Advanced Safety Technology Summary Improved Safe Driving Practices Most influential factors in advanced safety technology purchase process Tire Related Safety Systems Gaining significant increase in fleet manager interest Stability Control Systems Most important advanced safety technology in fleets 19% Estimated future growth rate for RSC 12% Estimated future growth rate for ESC 32% Fleet managers expect to use trailer tire inflation systems in 2015
  • 30.
    Common Multiplexed ArchitectureAcross OEMs: Foundations for Developing Smart Trucks Global CV Vision 2020: Common Multiplexed Architecture, NA-EU, 2014-2022 Need for Robust, Effective and Efficient Electronics, Communication and Networking Architecture Enables seamless communication between vehicle and devices Single standardized platform will streamline product development for OEMs and Teir1 suppliers Since, necessary infrastructure is available, new devices addition will not require discrete system integration and Development of architecture in compliance with SAE standards. J1939, J1708, CAN, LIN etc - vehicle bus protocol used for communication and diagnostics among vehicle components Infotainment Regulation Compliance MULTIPLEXED ARCHITECTURE OBD HMI – Driver Comfort & Convenience Controls Telematics Connectivity Safety System Integration HVAC Chassis Control Handheld / Personal Device Connectivity Powertrain Control IEC 60068, ISO 16750 OBD – On-Board Diagnostics; HVAC – Heating Ventilating and Air-Conditioning customization
  • 31.
    Vision 2022 Profitfrom Volume and Margins and Truck of the Future
  • 32.
    Volume Growth fromDeveloping Markets, Margin Growth from Advanced Technologies: Product Focus on HD Trucks and City Trucks Volume Growth BRIC Next 11 Africa North America Eurasia APAC LatAm Margin Growth Advanced Powertrain Telematics Safety Health, Wellness, Wellbeing Platforms Autonomous Driving
  • 33.
    Vision 2022: WhatWill be the Traits of Truck of The Future? Green Safe Connected Smart
  • 34.
    Key Contacts SandeepKar Global Director- Automotive & Transportation Research Direct: 416.490.7796 Fax: 416.490.1533 Email: sandeep.kar@frost.com