How we prove that we are who or what we say we are during digital transactions and interactions is set to become one of the defining features of the next stage of the human digital transformation. Today, we are living with early attempts to solve the problem that are no longer fit for purpose. At best, the multitude of different ways we login, confirm our identities, and establish trust in claims made during digital exchanges, has become profoundly inconvenient. At worst, they have left us in a connected world which is neither safe nor secure, and in which we seem to have completely lost control of our most personal information. The next generation solutions to the digital identity challenge could change all of this.
At the end of 2018, Future Agenda undertook a major project exploring the Future of Digital Identity. With the generous support of Mastercard, the Future Agenda team ran a series of expert workshops in different locations around the world that explored the key factors that are likely to shape the future of digital identity. The programme began with an initial perspective as a provocation. Participants in the workshops then gave us new, more fully formed, insights which were in turn explored further during one-to-one interviews with major stakeholders and thinkers in the space.
We are proud to launch this report of the findings of that work
We would like to extend our sincerest thanks to all of those who contributed to the programme.
As always, we consider our reports to be the start point for further conversations, and would welcome further input. If you would like to join the conversation, you can join our LinkedIn Group here. If you have any further questions or would like to have a conversation about how your organisation can best make use of our respond to the implications of the Future of Digital Identity please contact
Dr Robin Pharoah https://www.linkedin.com/in/robinpharoah,
James Alexander https://uk.linkedin.com/pub/james-alexander/0/747/617 or
Patrick Harris https://www.linkedin.com/in/patrick-harris-777767/
This is the initial perspective:
https://www.slideshare.net/futureagenda2/the-future-of-digital-identity-initial-perspective
This was the initial summary:
https://www.slideshare.net/futureagenda2/future-of-digital-identity-programme-summary-15-dec-2018-lr
Profit and market value is migrating away from hardware, but few product companies are prepared and executing the required digital transformation. High tech companies need to invest in digital growth strategies, reinvigorate business models and create new revenue streams. Find out how to harness disruption to grow your business.
how the idea of cashless India got importance and the steps towards cashless India. challenges for cashless India and how far it is possible to achieve.
Why, When and How Do I Start a Digital Transformation?Acquia
Presented at Acquia Engage APAC by Brittany Fox, Marketing Campaign Strategist, Deloitte.
Every organisation undergoing a marketing transformation has a starting point, with the difference only being the product of internal capability and maturity. At Deloitte, we take our clients from their starting point to being ready for whatever the next innovation is. This is the only real mechanism enterprises can implement for the future.
Digital India program is a Modi Government initiative that aims to offer a one-stop shop for government services would use the mobile phone as the backbone of its delivery mechanism.
India's Digital Transformation by Nandan Nilekani.pdfTanuj Bhojwani
Nandan Nilekani's presentation on the rapid changes that are happening in India over the last decade and a half. India is going through non-linear changes by using Digital Public Infrastructure (DPI). This presentation joins the dots and presents the big picture.
The future of digital identity 2019 future agendaFuture Agenda
How we prove that we are who or what we say we are during digital transactions and interactions is set to become one of the defining features of the next stage of the human digital transformation. Today, we are living with early attempts to solve the problem that are no longer fit for purpose. At best, the multitude of different ways we login, confirm our identities, and establish trust in claims made during digital exchanges, has become profoundly inconvenient. At worst, they have left us in a connected world which is neither safe nor secure, and in which we seem to have completely lost control of our most personal information. The next generation solutions to the digital identity challenge could change all of this.
In the short term, new solutions are likely to move us towards the promise of a single Digital ID that allows us to simply, safely and securely navigate a connected world.
Looking further forward, the changes could be even more profound. The ways that we digitally manage, share and verify our personal information could well come to completely redefine the human digital experience. Current digital business models that seem immutable could collapse. Centres of digital power might shift radically. And the current personal data ‘land grab’ could be replaced by a new digital norm in which individuals can finally make meaningful claims to data ownership and control.
However, there are a number of potentially calamitous pitfalls to navigate along the way. Some of these could lead to whole new kinds of digital dystopia.
At the end of 2018, Future Agenda undertook a major project exploring the Future of Digital Identity. With the generous support of Mastercard, the Future Agenda team ran a series of expert workshops in different locations around the world that explored the key factors that are likely to shape the future of digital identity. The programme began with an initial perspective as a provocation. Participants in the workshops then gave us new, more fully formed, insights which were in turn explored further during one-to-one interviews with major stakeholders and thinkers in the space.
As always, we consider our reports to be the start point for further conversations, and would welcome further input. If you would like to join the conversation, you can join our LinkedIn Group here. If you have any further questions or would like to have a conversation about how your organisation can best make use of our
Profit and market value is migrating away from hardware, but few product companies are prepared and executing the required digital transformation. High tech companies need to invest in digital growth strategies, reinvigorate business models and create new revenue streams. Find out how to harness disruption to grow your business.
how the idea of cashless India got importance and the steps towards cashless India. challenges for cashless India and how far it is possible to achieve.
Why, When and How Do I Start a Digital Transformation?Acquia
Presented at Acquia Engage APAC by Brittany Fox, Marketing Campaign Strategist, Deloitte.
Every organisation undergoing a marketing transformation has a starting point, with the difference only being the product of internal capability and maturity. At Deloitte, we take our clients from their starting point to being ready for whatever the next innovation is. This is the only real mechanism enterprises can implement for the future.
Digital India program is a Modi Government initiative that aims to offer a one-stop shop for government services would use the mobile phone as the backbone of its delivery mechanism.
India's Digital Transformation by Nandan Nilekani.pdfTanuj Bhojwani
Nandan Nilekani's presentation on the rapid changes that are happening in India over the last decade and a half. India is going through non-linear changes by using Digital Public Infrastructure (DPI). This presentation joins the dots and presents the big picture.
The future of digital identity 2019 future agendaFuture Agenda
How we prove that we are who or what we say we are during digital transactions and interactions is set to become one of the defining features of the next stage of the human digital transformation. Today, we are living with early attempts to solve the problem that are no longer fit for purpose. At best, the multitude of different ways we login, confirm our identities, and establish trust in claims made during digital exchanges, has become profoundly inconvenient. At worst, they have left us in a connected world which is neither safe nor secure, and in which we seem to have completely lost control of our most personal information. The next generation solutions to the digital identity challenge could change all of this.
In the short term, new solutions are likely to move us towards the promise of a single Digital ID that allows us to simply, safely and securely navigate a connected world.
Looking further forward, the changes could be even more profound. The ways that we digitally manage, share and verify our personal information could well come to completely redefine the human digital experience. Current digital business models that seem immutable could collapse. Centres of digital power might shift radically. And the current personal data ‘land grab’ could be replaced by a new digital norm in which individuals can finally make meaningful claims to data ownership and control.
However, there are a number of potentially calamitous pitfalls to navigate along the way. Some of these could lead to whole new kinds of digital dystopia.
At the end of 2018, Future Agenda undertook a major project exploring the Future of Digital Identity. With the generous support of Mastercard, the Future Agenda team ran a series of expert workshops in different locations around the world that explored the key factors that are likely to shape the future of digital identity. The programme began with an initial perspective as a provocation. Participants in the workshops then gave us new, more fully formed, insights which were in turn explored further during one-to-one interviews with major stakeholders and thinkers in the space.
As always, we consider our reports to be the start point for further conversations, and would welcome further input. If you would like to join the conversation, you can join our LinkedIn Group here. If you have any further questions or would like to have a conversation about how your organisation can best make use of our
Developed with Forum for the Future, an international sustainability non-profit organization, and based on our own interviews and executive survey, Vision 2030: A connected future highlights the opportunities that experts and business leaders see for IoT, data and connectivity to create a sustainable future.
The report outlines a future vision for IoT driven connectivity and highlights the barriers that need to be overcome to realize this vision and concludes with recommended next steps.
Future of AI: Blockchain & Deep LearningMelanie Swan
Future of AI: intelligence “baked in” to smart networks, blockchains to confirm authenticity and transfer value, and Deep Learning algorithms for predictive identification. This talk presents two high-impact contemporary emerging technologies: big data and deep learning algorithms, and blockchain distributed ledgers, and discusses their implications for the future of artificial intelligence.
Technology Vision 2022: Communications Industry | Accentureaccenture
Accenture's Technology Vision 2022 for the Communications industry details the key building blocks of the Metaverse Continuum that every CSP needs to know. accntu.re/3l8fmT8
The fifth annual MIT Sloan and Deloitte study of digital business reveals digitally mature organizations don't just innovate more, they innovate differently—leveraging ecosystems and cross-functional teams that play critical roles.
Kantar annual trends share insights on how the consumers are preparing themselves with the brewing challenges, obstacles, and opportunities as we move forward in 2022.
Presentation by Bo Parker, Managing Director of Center for Technology and Innovation at PricewaterhouseCoopers. Presentation was shown during the lecture at Digital October technology entrepreneurship center in Moscow, on 26 October.
The U.S. State, Local, and Education market (SLED) has its own rules, contracts, and sales cycles. While SLED is a largely fragmented market, SLED IT is forecast to be nearly $100B. Understand how you can effectively tap this lucrative market.
Future of digital identity Programme summary - 15 dec 2018 lrFuture Agenda
Over the past few months we have run a series of expert workshops exploring the future of digital identity. Supported by Mastercard five events took place in London, Singapore, Sydney, San Francisco and Brussels building a collaborative expert view.
The project online and initial perspective is here https://www.futureagenda.org/news/the-future-of-digital-identity
The full report will be published in the New Year
Future of digital identity initial perspective - final lrFuture Agenda
Our interconnected digital world has started to make a mockery of traditional forms of identification. Being asked to produce ‘two forms of ID; at least one from each of the two following lists’ already seems hopelessly anachronistic in a world of automated password-managers, RFID-driven payments systems, and bio-metric authenticators on our mobile phones. The idea of having a single digital identity (Digital ID) that can replace the need to hold a plethora of cards and documents, from your passport and driving license to your library card and even your CV, is not only one whose time has come, it is one that is all but presumed to exist already. Although it doesn’t quite yet.
This ‘initial perspective’ is intended to provide a provocation for thinking and deeper discussion about the impending implementation, and future, of Digital Identity and its role and value in society.
In addition, we are also undertaking a set of 5 expert workshops across 4 continents in Q4 2018 (London, Singapore, Sydney, San Francisco and Brussels). If you are interested in joining, we would welcome your feedback and contribution to help build a richer view. Do let us know.
Developed with Forum for the Future, an international sustainability non-profit organization, and based on our own interviews and executive survey, Vision 2030: A connected future highlights the opportunities that experts and business leaders see for IoT, data and connectivity to create a sustainable future.
The report outlines a future vision for IoT driven connectivity and highlights the barriers that need to be overcome to realize this vision and concludes with recommended next steps.
Future of AI: Blockchain & Deep LearningMelanie Swan
Future of AI: intelligence “baked in” to smart networks, blockchains to confirm authenticity and transfer value, and Deep Learning algorithms for predictive identification. This talk presents two high-impact contemporary emerging technologies: big data and deep learning algorithms, and blockchain distributed ledgers, and discusses their implications for the future of artificial intelligence.
Technology Vision 2022: Communications Industry | Accentureaccenture
Accenture's Technology Vision 2022 for the Communications industry details the key building blocks of the Metaverse Continuum that every CSP needs to know. accntu.re/3l8fmT8
The fifth annual MIT Sloan and Deloitte study of digital business reveals digitally mature organizations don't just innovate more, they innovate differently—leveraging ecosystems and cross-functional teams that play critical roles.
Kantar annual trends share insights on how the consumers are preparing themselves with the brewing challenges, obstacles, and opportunities as we move forward in 2022.
Presentation by Bo Parker, Managing Director of Center for Technology and Innovation at PricewaterhouseCoopers. Presentation was shown during the lecture at Digital October technology entrepreneurship center in Moscow, on 26 October.
The U.S. State, Local, and Education market (SLED) has its own rules, contracts, and sales cycles. While SLED is a largely fragmented market, SLED IT is forecast to be nearly $100B. Understand how you can effectively tap this lucrative market.
Future of digital identity Programme summary - 15 dec 2018 lrFuture Agenda
Over the past few months we have run a series of expert workshops exploring the future of digital identity. Supported by Mastercard five events took place in London, Singapore, Sydney, San Francisco and Brussels building a collaborative expert view.
The project online and initial perspective is here https://www.futureagenda.org/news/the-future-of-digital-identity
The full report will be published in the New Year
Future of digital identity initial perspective - final lrFuture Agenda
Our interconnected digital world has started to make a mockery of traditional forms of identification. Being asked to produce ‘two forms of ID; at least one from each of the two following lists’ already seems hopelessly anachronistic in a world of automated password-managers, RFID-driven payments systems, and bio-metric authenticators on our mobile phones. The idea of having a single digital identity (Digital ID) that can replace the need to hold a plethora of cards and documents, from your passport and driving license to your library card and even your CV, is not only one whose time has come, it is one that is all but presumed to exist already. Although it doesn’t quite yet.
This ‘initial perspective’ is intended to provide a provocation for thinking and deeper discussion about the impending implementation, and future, of Digital Identity and its role and value in society.
In addition, we are also undertaking a set of 5 expert workshops across 4 continents in Q4 2018 (London, Singapore, Sydney, San Francisco and Brussels). If you are interested in joining, we would welcome your feedback and contribution to help build a richer view. Do let us know.
Citizen Digital Identity: Enabling and empowering individuals and institutionsConor Bronsdon
A 2019 paper (which I contributed to) demonstrating how governments can enable citizen services and inclusive economic gains through Citizen Digital Identity.
Part of Microsoft Services' eBook series exploring how digital transformation and Digital Identity are changing industries and cybersecurity across the world.
Digitization in Lending: Evolution, Benefits, Challenges, Future Trends | GQ ...GQ Research
This article delves into the evolution, benefits, challenges, and future trends of digitization in lending, highlighting its transformative impact on the financial sector.
Presented on the main stage at CVC2019 in Zug, Switzerland. Discusses the shifts in how digital identity, particularly CULedger's self-sovereign identity solution MyCUID is being used to return to a normal approach for relationships. Discusses future application in payments as well.
Digitalization: A Challenge and An Opportunity for BanksJérôme Kehrli
Today’s banking industry era is strongly defined by a word - digital. The urgency to act is only getting severe each day. Banks using digital technologies to automate processes, improve regulatory compliance, and transform the customer experience may realize a profit upside of 40% or more, while laggards that resist digital innovation will be punished by customers, financial markets, regulators, and may see up to 35% of net profit eroded, according to a McKinsey analysis.
The vital question to answer is, do we get digitalization right? Why is it getting extremely urgent to digitize?
The Essence of Online ID Verification for Enhanced User Authentication.pdfIDMERIT IDMERIT
The significance of a robust identity verification process cannot be overstated while businesses are struggling to deal with online frauds & thefts. The online transactions are growing continuously, ensuring safe and trusted user authentication becomes a mandatory concern for businesses and service providers. One key solution that takes center stage in this endeavor is online ID verification.
https://www.idmerit.com/blog/the-essence-of-online-id-verification-for-enhanced-user-authentication/
By 2020 more than 7 billion people will be communicating and performing transactions over the web on over 35 billion devices. So how can companies effectively create a digital identity that promises security, ease and comfort for its customers? This study, sponsored by Oracle, assesses the role identity plays in the digital economy. Visit hub: http://bit.ly/1LKqXfN
apidays LIVE JAKARTA - How National ID accelerates the digital economy by Rah...apidays
apidays LIVE JAKARTA - Connecting the Digital Stack
How National ID accelerates the digital economy
Rahul Parthe, CTO of International Biometrics Indonesia
Open Data e Smart Government: tecnologie e trend di mercato Alessio MeloniApulian ICT Living Labs
Presentazione nell'ambito del workshop: OPEN DATA E CLOUD COMPUTING: OPPORTUNITÀ DI BUSINESS. Una vista internazionale - 15 Settembre 2014 Pad. 152 della Regione Puglia - 78 Fiera del Levante Bari
Cartesian assesses the current state of identity management, and outlines the opportunity for trusted service providers such as MNOs, financial institutions and governments to act as “digital identity authorities”.
Presentation to UK Central Government describing how trends in Digital Enterprise will impact governments around the world. At the heart is information with process and collaboration driving innovation and service to citizens and stakeholders.
The future of identity verification predictions and trends in blockchain tech...Techgropse Pvt.Ltd.
As a leading mobile app development company in UAE, we have been closely following the rapid development of blockchain technology and its potential to transform various industries. One area that has caught our attention is identity verification, which plays a crucial role in countless processes - from financial transactions to government services. Dubai, a city at the forefront of technological innovation, is becoming a center for exploring the intersection of blockchain and identity management.
Similar to Future of digital identity programme summary - 19 mar 2019 lr (20)
Future of Off-Premise Dining - Emerging View.pdfFuture Agenda
From ‘dark kitchens’ to ubiquitous delivery brands and grocery on-demand, where, what and how we all eat is undergoing significant and rapid change.
In a collaborative project, put together in partnership with McCain, we have been looking out to 2030 to explore and define how Off-Premise Dining might further evolve, and which of the multiple current trends are likely to stick? The emerging view is a first step toward answering the question. It reflects the key insights gathered from interviews and in-depth workshops with key industry stakeholders in Europe, the Americas and Asia, as well as the Future Agenda database and synthesised desk research.
The fight for future market share is already well underway, and significant bets are being placed on a wide range of future opportunities; from health-focused vending machines, through increasingly sophisticated mobile apps, to personalisation of food flavours. With so many significant shifts taking place simultaneously across the entire off-premise dining value chain, there will inevitably be winners and losers. We hope our insights can serve as a jumping off point for further discussion as to where the winners might emerge.
As with all Future Agenda projects, the aim is to challenge assumptions, identify emerging trends, and build an informed assessment of the changes ahead and their implications for strategy, policy, innovation and action.
If you’d like to be involved and add your views into the mix please do get in touch james.alexander@futureagenda.org
As companies and governments around the world grapple with accommodating changes in the workplace, the workforce and the nature of work itself, we are pleased to be continuing our Future of Work foresight programme. Building on previous global research undertaken over the past few years, we are now looking in depth at six pivotal issues that have been prioritised as areas of major potential change. These are digital skills, soft skills, reinventing roles, the blurring of work, green jobs and digital productivity. Initially taking a European focus, with the support of Amazon, over the next couple of months a series of expert digital workshops are exploring the core shifts ahead and their implications for organisations and wider policy.
This PDF sets the scene for the dialogue both within the workshops and more widely. If you would like to be involved or have comments on the potential changes ahead, do let us know and we can accommodate. As always all discussions are under the Chatham House Rule and so there is no attribution and, as we progress with each area, we will be sharing a synthesis of all new insights and recommendations over the rest of the year.
Future of asthma care a global expert view - summary - august 2021Future Agenda
Future of Asthma Care in 2030
Often hidden by many, asthma is a set of chronic conditions that will, some believe, impact around 1bn of us by the end of the decade. It will see new diagnostics, new treatments as well as gain new social and economic perspectives in many nations. As part of a global Open Foresight programme to bring together an informed outlook for all to use, this is a draft synthesis based on dialogue with 100 experts worldwide. At a time when lung health is front of mind for many, this is an important topic for our future health.
We are keen to understand your view on this. What do you agree with, what is missing and what may need an alternative perspective? Please do share any comments and feedback to douglas.jones@futureagenda.org and we will include everything in the final report that will made available later this year.
Future of work employability and digital skills march 2021Future Agenda
The Future of Work, Employability and Digital Skills
This interim summary identifies 50 key insights for the next decade on this critical topic. These open foresight findings are based on the results of 20 workshops and 150 interviews with over 400 informed experts from across academia, business and government conduced in the last 12 months. These were primarily across Europe, but also include views from US and SE Asia.
The varied discussions identified multiple key shifts that expected to have greatest impact over the next decade. The top 3 of these are seen as pivotal for society, for government, for employers and for future workers.
Building Digital Skills
Reinventing Roles
Developing Soft Skills
To build a richer, deeper view, we would very much welcome your feedback – especially on which shifts may deliver most benefit in the next ten years, and what is missing that ought to be included in the mix.
The UK in 2030 - An expert informed view on some key trendsFuture Agenda
At a time when there is much speculation on what the next twelve months may bring, some are also looking ahead to prepare for the longer term. What will the UK be like in 2030 when the nation is post-Covid, post-Brexit and post-Johnson? Now that vaccines are being rolled out and the initial outline hard Brexit deal has been done, how will the UK fair over the decade – economically, socially and demographically? What changes are already locked-in and what is open to future variation? Based on numerous discussions with a wide range of experts across the UK in late 2020, this document explores some of the key potential trends for the next decade and highlights where the UK may be heading.
Having a well-defined future view is never easy – particularly in times of uncertainty. However, if we can differentiate between the certain, the probable and the possible we can build a clearer picture of the future which may help to challenge assumptions. Since 2010, Future Agenda has been using open foresight to explore decade-long trends with a high degree of accuracy. The World in 2020, written in 2010 for example, accurately anticipated a range of developments such as a global pandemic, the challenges around data privacy, the scaling up of electric and autonomous vehicles, the widespread use of drones and the building impact of solar energy. All of these were anticipated through extensive expert dialogue across multiple disciplines to curate an integrated, informed perspectives which can be accessed by everyone.
We used a similar approach to explore the pivotal shifts ahead for the UK. Following multiple expert discussions including academics, regional and central government, social and business leaders, as well as the military, this document summarises eight areas of alignment about UK 2030 but also highlights three fields where there is substantial difference of opinion.
Our conversations identified eight core areas where we can have confidence that changes will take place. These trends are:
1. A Changing Demographic Mix
2. Accelerating to Zero Carbon
3. Improved Digital Connectivity
4. Declining Economic Influence
5. More Devolved Power
6. Rising Inequality
7. Emphasis on the Local
8. UK Leadership
Future of retail - Five key future trends - 9 Dec 2020Future Agenda
Future of Retail – Five Key Trends
The pandemic has accelerated change across many sectors – and especially retail. More online, less physical and empty malls have been evident globally. So what about the next ten years? What changes will continue to accelerate, which will rebalance, and which new ones will emerge?
Based on extensive dialogue with retail, tech and city leaders globally, this new point of view brings together the major shifts in the mix collated under five key trends – Reemphasis on the Local, Identity Insights, Automated Retail, Continuous Interaction and Informed Consumers.
Now being used to stimulate new thinking, innovation and strategy development in multiple projects around the world, this is being shared to continue dialogue on changes and impact.
We welcome your views @futureagenda
The third programme has taken place during 2020, engaging more experts on the pivotal shifts via virtual workshops and wider community debate.Here are ten issues that will provide future challenge and opportunity.
E7 Not G7
As global GDP rises, the seven largest emerging economies (E7) have increasing economic power. The relative influence of the old G7 Western powers declines.
Data Sovereignty
Large-population emerging economies see the protection of their data as a national priority. Wider data sharing is restricted to within national borders.
The Race to Net Zero
Cities, countries and companies compete to set the standards for the planet.Fully reducing emissions is central for energy, health and economic targets.
Electric Aviation
As the pressure to decarbonise aviation builds and technology challenges are addressed, using electric planes for short / medium-haul flights gathers support.
The Stakeholder Society
The shift from maximising shareholder value to a stakeholder focus accelerates. Organisations’ purpose, action and performance measurement realign.
Migrating Diseases
Health systems struggle to address the impact of climate change. The increased spread of ‘old’ vector-borne diseases challenge nations for whom they are ‘new’.
Peak Soil
After water and air quality, attention shifts to soil. It impacts everything from food and health to conflict and migration. Action follows deeper understanding.
True Personalisation
Ubiquitous facial recognition and digital identity combine with wider AI adoption to enable the creation and delivery of truly individualised experiences.
Resilience by Design
Global supply chains evolve to be more flexible, shared regional supply webs. Competitors access shared, not proprietary, networks and systems.
Proof of Immunity
Public concerns about health security override worries about privacy. Governments integrate immunity and health data with national identities.
More details on www.futureagenda.org
Future of work employability and digital skills nov 2020Future Agenda
Future of Work, Employability and Digital Skills
As the world of work changes, how will organisations, society and individuals adapt to ensure that the current and the next generation will be able to acquire the skills necessary for future jobs? Building on previous Future Agenda research that focussed on key policy areas primarily in the Asian market and, more recently, an updated outlook on the future of work and skills development developed in partnership with the University of Bristol, School of Management, we are very pleased to be starting a new phase of research. As well as an analysis of the future of work, this will specifically explore the shifting nature of employability and how and where digital skills will have impact.
Over the next few months, expert views from across Europe will be shared in order to develop a richer understanding of key issues and how they vary across different jurisdictions. As with all Future Agenda projects, the aim is to challenge assumptions, identify emerging trends and build an informed assessment of the changes ahead and their implications for policy and action.
If you would like to be involved and add your views into the mix, please get in touch.
Future of retail global trends summary nov 2020Future Agenda
This is an updated summary of 60 global trends that may impact the world of retail over the next decade. Multiple expert discussions across Asia, Europe, MENA and North America have developed and shared these insights that have been curated into ten key shifts.
As we finalise the future views before wider public sharing, we very much welcome your feedback on these and which may have greatest future impact.
douglas.jones@futureagenda.org
@futureagenda
The UK in 2030
In the midst of all the current uncertainty, many people are seeking greater clarity around how the future may unfold – both globally and locally. Therefore, as part of the World in 2030 project, we have curated a specific perspective on the UK in 2030.
As with all our Open Foresight projects, UK 2030 is built through dialogue with informed individuals holding alternative outlooks on how things may unfold. This PDF provides an initial collation of some of their views on what is certain, probable and possible. We will use it to initiate further period of consultation over the next month.
With this in mind we would very much welcome your thoughts – especially around the areas that you agree with, those you disagree with and your suggestions about what is missing. Your knowledge will add both richness and depth to this point of view. We will share an updated and more detailed summary before Christmas. The ambition is that this can then be used to both inform and challenge assumptions so we can all gain a clearer perspective on the future of the UK.
@futureagenda
london@futureagenda.org
The world's most innovative cities past present future - oct 2020Future Agenda
Cities are where innovation happens, where most ideas form and economic growth largely stems. For centuries, the world’s most innovative cities have been acting as global catalysts for change, and will continue to do so. As more cities seek to have impact over the next decades, we need to better understand what drives success and so identify those that may have greatest lasting impact.
APPROACH – Getting Clarity
Future Agenda has been conducting multiple discussions around the world on the future of cities (www.futureofcities.city). Our aim is to explore the range of views about what makes one city more successful, more influential and more innovative than other, and also consider key related issues such as the future of work, health, trade, trust, transport and data.
In addition, we have applied a similar modelling technique to those applied to Innovation Leaders which, for twenty years, has identified the companies that have been the best and most sustained innovators, in order to assess what potentially makes one city more innovative than another. Exploring multiple criteria, we have highlighted some core global catalysts for change.
To accompany a speech at the WRLDCTY event, this presentation shares some of the salient insights: It profiles some of most innovative cities of the past, identifying the key elements that contributed to their success, highlights some of the pivotal cities having greatest impact today, and, lastly, suggests ten cities for future global innovation leadership.
https://www.futureofcities.city
https://www.wrldcty.com
https://www.futureagenda.org/the-world-in-2030/
Data as an Asset – A Top Risk?
The concept of data being accounted for as an 'asset' is increasingly considered to be a top future risk. The fifth of our 2030 digital workshops in collaboration with The Conference Board explored varied potential data risks (Many thanks to Ellen Hexter and Sara Murray for organising).
Rated top by 50 business leaders for future impact, and second for likely change, was a foresight that “organisations will be obliged to account for what data they own or access. As such they will be required to regularly report on their full data portfolio.” (See attached PDF)
Particular concerns were raised on; how organisations will best assign value to their data; how it will be treated as an asset; who will audit this; whether ownership will be transferred with use and how, if valued, data will be taxed.
Some felt that by 2030 there will be guidelines, standards and frameworks in place – other were less convinced. Most however agreed that many business models will change.
To explore this topic more see section 4.6 in the global report on https://www.deliveringvaluethroughdata.org
Add your view via @futureagenda on twitter or via LinkedIn on https://www.linkedin.com/posts/innovationstrategy_future-data-risk-workshop-stimulus-activity-6714470359971700736-MunM
While some regions gain from better water management, much of the world’s population increasingly depend on water moved from one river basin to another. New options are explored to achieve this economically and with reduced socio-environmental damage.
As part of the World in 2030 global open foresight project, this point of view shares some perspective on changes ahead.
With climate change, increasing urbanisation, growing contamination, higher water consumption, more intensive farming and rising industrial use in many economies all having significant and combined impact, as the global population approaches 10 billion, but the net amount of water on the planet stays constant, concerns over water stress have been building. With 70% of water used for agriculture, a quarter of humanity is now facing a looming water crisis. A broadening range of urban areas need multiple innovations to provide water to cities throughout the year.
Although better water management and the decreasing cost of desalination are having impact in some regions, in many others, and especially for fast-growing inland cities, the task of ensuring continued water access is mounting. Simply moving water from one river basin to another is not straightforward. It is fraught with technological, environmental, economic and socio-political challenge. There are however several developments underway to enable more effective long-distance movement of water – some focused on building new infrastructure at scale and others looking to imaginatively repurpose existing assets to help meet the inevitable future demand.
Share your views @futureagenda
Future of hospital design initial perspective - sept 2020Future Agenda
Hospitals of the Future
In partnership with Mott MacDonald we are exploring how hospital design will change in the next decade. Building on insights gained from multiple healthcare expert workshops around the world, this is an initial perspective that share some key thoughts on how and where we may see most change. Starting with context on shifts in healthcare more generally, from slide 28 onwards it includes 22 proposals for future design focus. These range from hub and spoke ecosystems and post-Covid reconfiguration to more flexible spaces and the impact of digital theatres.
As part of a global Open Foresight programme, we are now sharing these views to gain feedback for inclusion in a more detailed point of view that will be published later in the year. If you would like to add in your opinions on which issues will be driving most change in hospitals of the future, we would welcome input either directly to us by email (tim.jones@futureagenda.rg) or via this short survey: https://www.surveymonkey.co.uk/r/J9S8SB6
Many thanks in advance for your collaboration on another key topic for future change.
Future Risk: 12 Key Issues for Insurance in the Next DecadeFuture Agenda
The insurance sector is facing major change - from both within and outside. What will be the major shifts over the next decade that have greatest impact? As part of the World in 2030 project, this is an initial view of 12 major trends that will influence insurance globally - looking across data shifts, market trends and in-sector innovations.
What do you think? Which will have greatest impact? Will it be automatic insurance? or N=1 personalisation?
Let us know your views and we can include them in an updated foresight in the next month or so.
Get in touch via douglas.jones@futureagenda.org
For more on The World in 2030 see: https://www.futureagenda.org/the-world-in-2030/
Porous Organisations
Here is our latest 2030 foresight.
This time we focus on the challenges for the future of work. Increasing competition for talent forces organisations to open their doors to a growing number of independent workers. This makes it difficult to maintain corporate knowledge and becomes a challenge for business big and small. In a highly volatile and increasingly complex landscape, many must learn how to manage a seamless flow of knowledge and ideas so they can adapt to changing customer demands, ensure capabilities are maintained and keep the doors to innovation open. Looking ahead, it seems that only the wealthiest and most attractive organisations (in the main technology companies) will be able to retain the loyalty of their employees. For everyone else, building and preserving corporate know-how within increasingly porous organisational boundaries will become a priority. As ever your thoughts and provocations are very welcome.
To access via website https://www.futureagenda.org/foresights/porous-organisations/
New solid-state batteries offer safer, higher performance than existing options and become viable options for use across multiple sectors. Competitive pricing and proactive policymaking accelerate global uptake.
This foresight is part of the World in 2030 project exploring the key global shifts for the next decade - https://www.futureagenda.org/the-world-in-2030/
Battery development has become a priority area for a broadening range of companies in recent years. Significant investment is underway as a number of new technologies compete for fast-growing markets. Five years ago, we identified that energy storage was the missing piece of the renewables jigsaw: “If solved, it can enable truly distributed solar energy as well as accelerate the electrification of the transport industry.” Today, as economies focus on faster decarbonisation and increasing electrification, particularly in transportation, the speed of new battery development has become a central issue for many researchers, policy makers, investors and companies.
Why is this? If we can get significantly more energy from a lighter, more compact, but affordable battery then the implications are enormous. Not only will this accelerate the adoption of electric vehicles by extending their range and providing a cheap way to store renewable, particularly low cost solar, energy, but it will also release a host of new developments in other areas from wearable electronics to electric planes, drones and scooters.
Given the demand for high performing batteries is building, it is hardly surprising that there is as much focus today on creating the batteries of tomorrow as there was when the first rechargeable battery was invented 160 years ago: according to a USPTO search in the past decade or so over 200,000 battery related patents have been issued. The rush to deliver the next generation technology is bringing together a host of new partnerships and foremost in many discussions is the potential impact of solid-state batteries. Within the next decade these could become the catalysts for substantial and lasting change across many sectors.
Soil is fundamental, fragile and finite. It impacts everything from food and health to conflict and migration. Deeper understanding of its degradation raises the significance of soil to equal that of climate change and biodiversity loss.
We know that the quality of our soil is the key to the food we grow, the clothes we wear and the water we drink. It recycles nutrients, sequesters carbon, is fundamental to biodiversity, helps keep our ecosystems in balance and is an essential part of our general wellbeing. But, although soil represents the difference between survival and extinction for most terrestrial life, human activities have caused it harm leading to compaction, loss of structure, nutrient degradation, increasing salinity and denuding landscapes. Furthermore, the urgent need to preserve soil receives relatively little attention from governments. An unsung hero of our planet, it is fragile, infinitely important and finite. Why do we treat it with such disregard?
As part of the World in 2030 programme, this foresight explores the future of soil and the stresses ahead https://www.futureagenda.org/foresights/peaksoil/
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4. Future of Digital Identity - Programme Overview
This is an emerging view of the Future of Digital Identity - based on
multiple views collected during a 2018 Open Foresight programme
made possible by the generous sponsorship of Mastercard.
3 | Analysis and synthesis
• Identification of cross-
cutting themes and areas
of greatest impact over
the next ten years
2 | Exploration and iteration
• Expert workshops
• Regional perspectives
• Addition of new insights
through collaborative dialogue
1 | initial perspective
• Synthesis of existing Future
Agenda insights
• Interviews and desk research
• Meaningful baseline for
discussion
Emerging view
of the next ten
years
01
02
03
5. Workshops in 5 Countries Across 4 Continents
The programme has accessed more than 140 informed experts with
discussion focused on the key shifts and drivers most likely to have
an impact on the Future of Digital Identity, over the next decade.
San Francisco
London
Singapore
Sydney
Brussels
7. Project Summary
Key insights from each of our five workshop locations.
Percentage of population without any ID:
Source: World Bank 2018 http://id4d.worldbank.org;
The report and data presents economy-level aggregates on the share and number of the population without a
foundational/national ID, based on surveys covering over 100,000 people in 99 economies—representing 74
percent of the world’s population.
>50% 20-50% 2-20% 0-2%
Future of Digital Identity (2018/19)
Locations and Key Insights
Singapore 30 OCT 2018
Top Insights*
• Setting the Standards
• Enhanced Cyber-Security
• Robust Authentication Equals Trust
• Convenience Rules
• The Case for Digital Inclusion
Sydney 02 NOV 2018
Top Insights*
• Management of Digital ID Rights
• Super-Surveillance
• Digital ID Accountability
• The Big Fake
• The Case for Digital Inclusion
San Francisco 13 NOV 2018
Top Insights*
• Null Attributes
• Me, Myself and I
• Verified But Incognito
• Super-Surveillance
• Digital ID Accountability
London 15 OCT 2018
Top Insights*
• Personalised Controlled Exchanges
• Stateless Netizens
• The Big Fake
• Convenience Rules
• The Case For Digital Inclusion
Brussels 27 NOV 2018
Top Insights*
• Social Scoring
• Ethics By Design
• Influence of Scale
• Personalised Controlled Exchanges
• The Case for Digital Inclusion
% of Total Transactions That Were
Recognised As Identity Spoofing
REGION TOTAL
Africa 16.5%
Asia 12.8%
Europe 7.6%
Australia 6.8%
South America 6.3%
North America 5.6%
Source: Threat Matrix Cybercrime Report - Q2 2018
*Top 5 insights according to their relative impact on Digital ID over the next decade
9. Thematic Lens
Many of the insights generated have significant areas of overlap, both practical
and theoretical. Their implications for DI stakeholders, and the ‘DI story’,
become clearer when a cross-cutting thematic lens is applied.
Communicating Identity
Empowering the individual
System design
Unintended consequences
Re-assessing
self
sovereignty
Digital rights &
consent
The inclusion
illusion
System
vulnerabilities
Identity victims
Building blocks
still matter
Growing
standards
Ethics by
design
Multiple
bets
Ecosystem
development
Social
identities
Power and
influence
Its social
not
technical
Digital life
stages
Communicating Identity
11. Communicating Identity
Digital Identity is a nebulous term that covers multiple technologies and
digital and social interactions and transactions. Clarity around purpose,
language, need, value and application is needed.
• Digital Identity Literacy
• Attributes Not Digital ID
• Data IP Attribution
• Proxy Digital IDs
• Data Provenance
• Secure Access Without Disclosure
• Cost Reduction
• Convenience Rules
• Value Not Identity
12. Digital Identity Literacy
A wholesale move toward Digital ID will require it’s own programme of
education to teach people how to maintain and keep safe their Digital ID.
13. Attributes not Digital ID
Users give permission for a third party to access the appropriate attribute
mix required to complete a given exchange. ID may/may not feature.
14. Data IP Attribution
Digital IDs enable the tracing of contribution of individual ‘chunks’ of data
to data-driven services, allowing for all contributors to be recompensed.
15. Proxy Digital IDs
As the pool of Personally Identifiable Information continues to grow, the
need for Digital Identity reduces. Algorithms win the race for identity.
16. Data Provenance
Digital ID enables provenance of all ‘owned data’ including data provided
by, say, passive sensors in cars, much of which may not be personal at all.
17. Secure Access without Disclosure
Driven by increased consumer awareness of continuing misuse,
transacting while giving minimal (or no) information gains momentum.
18. Cost Reduction
Digital ID enables service providers to reduce their transaction costs and
accelerate the pace of innovation, both for them and for wider society.
19. Convenience Rules
Continuing consumer appetite for convenience drives development of Digital
ID, especially as many processes requiring formal ID feel so old-fashioned today.
20. Value, not Identity
Consumers are only motivated to adopt Digital Identity through compelling
use cases that deliver tangible value to them (e.g. time or cost saving).
22. Empowering the Individual
This theme contains three sub sections: Re-assessing Self-Sovereignty,
Digital Rights and Consent Management and The Inclusion Illusion.
23. Re-Assessing Self-Sovereignty
The data-driven world has already led to a loss of individual agency.
The advent of AI may accelerate this trend. Digital Identity could
help us to re-assert our sovereignty and agency in a data-driven world.
• Me, Myself and I
• Erosion of Agency
• Personalised Controlled Exchanges
• Self-Sovereign ID
• Personal Gatekeeping
• Balanced Proof of Identification
• Zero-Knowledge Proofs
• Verified but Incognito
24. Me, Myself and I
Digital ID users maintain deliberately separated identities and attribute
stores. Providers offer context-based, Digital-ID-as-a-service solutions.
25. Erosion of Agency
Consumer comfort in outsourcing agency to ‘things’ drives a rich market
of data driven technology deciding for us. Erosion of human agency results.
26. Personalised, Controlled Exchanges
Digital ID gives people greater control over access to their personal data,
and encourages transparency of service-providers in onward use.
27. Self-sovereign ID
Calls for self-sovereign digital ID - or the ‘controlled sharing’ principles
on which it is based - are likely to increase, as are attempts to build it.
28. Personal Gatekeeping
Consent management systems and platforms emerge to help individuals
more easily ‘trust in an otherwise trustless system (of machines)’.
29. Balanced Proof of Identification
Digital users become more demanding about ensuring they ‘get as well as they
give’ with regard to verification of those whom they choose to engage.
30. Zero Knowledge Proofs
Future Digital Identities will include attributes that are harder to mimic or steal.
Authentication will occur without data exchange, limiting the data at risk.
31. Verified but Incognito
For more private contexts and use-cases, properly authenticated, but wholly
anonymous identities are deployed within the Digital ID eco-system.
32. Digital Rights and Consent Management
Digital Identity rights could become fundamental human rights.
DI implementations could also become the means by
which we exercise wider emerging data rights.
• Digital Rights Management
• Transparent Exchange
• Assertion of My Digital Rights
• Management of Digital ID rights
• Digital ID as a Fundamental Human Right
• The Un-Digital
33. Digital Rights Management
Digital ID provides the vehicle for managing digital rights – when to be
anonymous, when to be seen, when its ok to be monitored, etc.
34. Transparent Exchange
Digital ID drives transparency in the value exchange between consumers
and services, curtailing current ’surveillance capitalism’ business models.
35. Assertion of My Digital Rights
A DI Bill of Rights is already demanded by many. How this is built, by who,
what it includes, and critically, how it is enforced, will be hotly contested.
36. Management of Digital ID Rights
As Digital ID becomes part of society’s critical infrastructure, rules emerge
on how access rights can be given, taken away, redressed and restored.
37. Digital ID as a Fundamental Human Right
Digital Identity becomes a fundamental human right. Governments ensure
both access and equity for all, while business is made to respect this right.
Image courtesy of: Interaction Institute for Social Change | Artist: Angus Maguire
38. The Un-Digital
With the arrival of Digital ID rights comes the inalienable right to be
non-digital, and the need to serve the ‘Digital Amish’ who choose to opt out.
39. The Inclusion Illusion
Those needing access to basic services constitute a meaningful audience
for Digital ID, and are likely to be enthusiastic early-adopters, despite
being a non-traditional target for commercial organisations.
• Digital Identity - The First Wave
• Stateless Netizens
• Digital Citizenship
• The Case For Digital Inclusion
40. Digital Identity - The First Wave
Early adopters will include those who need to become familiar with
Digital ID in order to access basic (digitally adapting) government services.
41. Stateless Netizens
Digital ID for some (e.g. displaced peoples) becomes more important than
citizenship, leading to societal groups based on new, shared attributes.
42. Digital Citizenship
Digital IDs issued at birth and/or multi-lateral and global bodies issuing
and protecting Digital ID, gives greater meaning and usefulness to them.
43. The Case for Digital Inclusion
Digital ID systems will go some way towards addressing access and
exclusion issues of the 1 billion+ people lacking legal identity documents.
45. System Design
This theme contains three subsets of The Basic Building Blocks
Still Matter, Growing Standards and Integrating Ethics.
46. The Basic Building Blocks Still Matter
Interoperability is likely to emerge first in regard to authentication
and verification, with interoperability around identity
attributes lagging behind and influenced by it.
• Something Owned, Something Known, Something You
• New Bio-Metric Fingerprints
• Trust Cocktails
• Robust Authentication Equals Trust
47. Something Owned, Something Known, Something You
Authentication typically features something you own, you know and you are.
Innovating unique identifiers leads to new ways of thinking about who we are.
48. New Biometric Fingerprints
New identity markers, including our ‘routines’, prove useful in detecting
fraud, especially where AI sees changes in behavioural patterns.
49. Trust Cocktails
As ‘things’ are given Digital IDs, people are no longer certain of who or what
they are trusting - app, service, device or person - or if they should care.
50. Robust Authentication Equals Trust
Strong authentication processes will be the key factor in determining overall
levels of trust in the reliability and security of a given Digital ID system.
51. Growing Standards
Digital Identity standards will begin to emerge, with
pace-setters reaping early benefits. But with first-mover
advantage will come responsibility and accountability.
• Implementation Matters
• Setting the Standards
• Digital ID Accountability
• Regulations on the Fly
53. Setting the Standards
First-movers will develop standards for basis of global Digital ID systems.
Consumers and governments decide the winners (e.g. Betamax vs VHS).
54. Digital ID Accountability
Clear accountability and good data stewardship is seen as key. Strong
punishment emerges in response to Digital ID misuse and reputation damage.
55. Regulation on the Fly
Digital ID will land and expand very quickly. Regulators will be
faced with the task of ‘building the aeroplane whilst flying it’.
56. Integrating Ethics
The field of Digital Identity is nascent enough that building truly
ethical principles and systems is still possible, helping to
avoid negative unintended consequences.
• Ethics By Design
• Unified Digital ID Ethical Principles
• Hyper Accurate Advertising
• Super-Surveillance
• Social Scoring
57. Ethics by Design
Sensitivity of Digital ID data, and the potential for catastrophic or malign
mis-use, drives ‘ethical by design’ standards that go beyond compliance.
58. Unified Digital ID Ethical Principles
Digital ID ethics will follow the bio-ethics lead with foundational principles:
e.g. Beneficence, Non-maleficence, Autonomy and Justice (and Explicability).
59. Hyper-accurate Advertising
Users practiced in social media’s ‘data for advertising’ model, consent to
sharing their ID for this purpose, resulting in hyper accurate advertising.
60. Super-surveillance
Digital ID’s highly accurate and relatively clean surveillance data,
will lead to mass surveillance in some states and market economies.
61. Social Scoring
Digital ID attributes enable monitoring of ‘good behaviour’ e.g. carbon
footprint tracking. In the hands of some, this evolves into social scoring.
64. Multiple Bets
Different players in the Digital ID space come with differing
priorities, visions and business models, each with different
implications for future opportunities and markets.
• New Digital ID Markets
• Expanding Digital Service Provision
• Data-less Business Models
• Blueprint for Success
• Many Internets
• IoT Leads IoP
65. New Digital ID markets
Digital ID has the potential to play a critical role in social and economic life.
A new range of economic opportunities and markets will emerge around it.
66. Expanding Digital Service Provision
With growing numbers of digital delivered services, Digital ID will enable
an expansion of access to different, and new kinds, of service providers.
67. Data-less Business Models
Innovations allow users to give access to data without sharing it.
New models centre on positive, privacy-preserving, consumer propositions.
68. Blueprint for Success
Global financial transactions and payments infrastructures will provide
us with the ‘blueprint’ for building a truly interoperable Digital ID system.
69. Many Internets
Lacking a single global solution, the internet splits into different realms: e.g.
Open-Internet, Dark Internet and Internet Islands (local Digital ID systems).
70. IoT Leads IoP
Commercial use cases for ‘things’ creates identity and attribute frameworks
and infrastructure for objects. These are then applied to people.
71. Power and Influence
As Digital Identity systems and networks emerge,
power and influence will come to rest in
different locations depending on different models.
• Centralised or Distributed Digital Identity Systems?
• Finders Keepers, Losers Weepers
• Expanding Roles
• Digital ID Platforms
• Digital ID Federations
• Influence of Scale
• Aussie Rules
72. Centralised or Distributed Digital Identity Systems?
Distributed implementation removes concerns of trust in single entities.
Centralised systems bring uptake and interoperability. Nation states decide.
73. Finders Keepers, Losers Weepers
Highly centralised Digital ID systems, provide potential for identity ‘keepers’
to hold vast amounts of user data across myriad different contexts.
74. Expanding Roles
Roles/responsibilities in Digital ID systems grow from today’s verifiers and
trust partners to legal guardians, delegated authorities, AI brokers, etc.
75. Digital ID Platforms
Brokers emerge to help individuals easily manage their use of
multiple ID’s, profiles and attributes across different contexts.
76. Digital ID Federations
As with airline alliances (e.g. Star Alliance), Digital ID Federations form
linking together Attribute Suppliers and different Digital ID Providers.
77. Influence of Scale
China’s super apps and India Stack are already expanding into, and
influencing, other geographies. Digital ID tech will ‘follow the money’.
78. Aussie Rules
Learning from mistakes of others, and positioning itself as a leader in terms
of cross-sector cooperation, Australia sets western Digital ID benchmarks.
81. It's Social Not Technical
Digital Identity is largely seen as a technical challenge, but ID
and Identity are about social relationships and will thus
bring attendant complexities into their digital realisation.
• Local Digital Citizenship
• Merging of Identity and ID
• From Tech to Society
• Digital ID as Belonging
82. Local Digital Citizenship
Distrust of surveillance and distant institutions leads to hyper-local identity
and authentication by the people we know and communities we live in.
83. Merging of Identity and ID
As ID management and attribute systems collect more detailed digital user
histories, our Identity and ID will merge, with unknowable consequences.
84. From Tech to Society
Today Digital ID is a tech challenge. Pressure increases for it to be managed
as a social challenge with tech held accountable for decisions made today.
85. Digital ID as Belonging
Just as individuals identify with others (e.g. location, faith, custom) in society,
so it is in the digital space. Cultural and social sensitivities remain key.
86. Digital Life Stages
Digital Identity creators will need to think hard about the
full life-cycle of a digital identity and how it will incorporate
the changes, life-stages and rituals of human life-cycles.
• Right to be Forgotten • Immortal ID
87. Right to be Forgotten
The right to be forgotten is increasingly recognised in a world with digital
memories. Implementation in Digital ID eco-systems is a significant challenge.
88. Immortal ID
Immortal IDs form - the sum of our digital histories and a collection of all
digital attributes. But who owns and controls them? Under what consent?
91. System Vulnerabilities
Digital Identity systems are potentially both a solution, and
a new frontline, in the battle for cyber security. They could re-define
and re-shape approaches to cyber risk, defense and attack.
• Re-evaluation of Cyber Risk
• Enhanced Cyber-Security
• Avoiding Honeypots
• The Big Fake
• Null Attributes
92. Enhanced Cyber Security
Strong and secure systems of digital identification will play a significant
role in enhancing cyber security for individuals, organisations and states.
93. Avoiding Honeypots
The need for cyber protection ensures that distributed data models prevail
over those that seek centralization, except in authoritarian regimes.
94. Re-evaluation of Cyber-risk
Breaches to digital ID systems have the potential to cause catastrophic damage.
Organisations will radically re-evaluate their investment to mitigate it.
95. The Big Fake
Fake Digital IDs, unlike fake passports, have the potential to be used in
many contexts at the same time, scaling up the consequences involved.
97. Digital Identity Victims
History teaches us that formalising identity can lead to great atrocities
and countless victims. The data and applications associated with
Digital Identity carry high risk for individuals, states and societies.
• Competing Interest Areas
• Identity Victims
• Offsetting Unintended Consequences
• Benefits of Catastrophe
• The Cost of Convenience
• Increased Accountability
Removed Honeypots – as also in
System Vulnerabilities sections –
presume we want to d-dupe
98. Competing Interest Areas
A battle for ‘ownership’ of the identity space grows, highlighting ideologies:
e.g. social good, economic opportunity, privacy, national security, social order.
99. Identity Victims
History is littered with horrific examples of the consequences of formally
assigning identity markers (race, religion etc.). Digital ID will be no different.
100. Offsetting Unintended Consequences
Specialist thinking emerges, particularly sociological, around the potential
unintended consequences of rapid deployment and adoption of Digital ID.
101. Benefits of Catastrophe
Digital ID catastrophe is almost inevitable, but will be a stimulus to drive
positive changes in awareness of secure identity and authentication.
102. The Cost of Convenience
Convenience remains as a core driver, but with the cost of teaching poor
behaviours, e.g., learning laziness, path of least resistance, etc.
103. Increased Accountability
Digital ID increases accountability in public online spaces, where
online behaviours can be traced back to offline identities.
105. Regional Comparison – Top 5
The chart shows those insights which featured in the ‘top 5’
according to relative impact on Digital ID over the next
ten years, in at least one of the workshops.
San Francisco
• Null Attributes
• Me, Myself and I
• Verified But Incognito
• Super-Surveillance
• Digital ID Accountability
Sydney
• Management of Digital ID Rights
• Super-Surveillance
• Digital ID Accountability
• The Big Fake
• The Case for Digital Inclusion
London
• Personalised Controlled Exchanges
• Stateless Netizens
• The Big Fake
• Convenience Rules
• The Case For Digital Inclusion
Brussels
• Social Scoring
• Ethics By Design
• Influence of Scale
• Personalised Controlled Exchanges
• The Case for Digital Inclusion
Singapore
• Setting the Standards
• Enhanced Cyber-Security
• Robust Authentication Equals Trust
• Convenience Rules
• The Case for Digital Inclusion
107. Some Key Questions for Digital ID Stakeholders
• Who are the other key digital identity stakeholders that can help enable our vision?
• What role do we wish to play in the identity ecosystem?
• How should we understand the purpose of Digital ID and how do we build to reflect that?
• How does personal data mesh with machine data?
• What is our ethical position regarding digital identity?
• How can we contribute to the prevention of unintended and negative long-term
consequences?
108. Some Key Questions for Industry
• In a world of Digital ID, will customers still want to share data with us?
• How will we ensure that we are ‘trustworthy’?
• What data do we need to collect in the future?
• How will we be able to comply when customers assert digital rights?
• Can we develop new, privacy-preserving customer propositions?
• What potential new products and services does widespread adoption of Digital ID unlock?
• How can we benefit from increased cybersecurity and better accountability in digital
transactions?
• Do we need to understand the impacts of Digital ID on our business models better?
109. Some Key Questions for Government and Regulators
• Would a government mandate around Digital ID help to accelerate the benefits of a secure
and interoperable ID system?
• How should we properly regulate Digital ID systems, and how can we ensure we create a
dynamic and responsive regulatory environment for Digital ID?
• What kind of identity ecosystem do we wish to support?
• What role will Government data about individuals play?
• How can we ensure that digital identity benefits all of society?
• How do we ensure that no citizen is excluded?
• What steps must we take to prevent unintended consequences?
• How can we think about the ethics of digital identity early?
• How can access to and delivery of public services be improved by widespread adoption of
Digital ID?
110. Some Key Questions for Individuals and Society
• How can my personal digital information facilitate my life?
• How will I manage my digital attributes?
• Who do I trust to help me do this?
• Do I want my personal data to help society?
• What are my digital rights and who protects them?
• When do I want and need to be identified and when can I remain anonymous?
• How can I better understand the role my data plays in a digital society and economy?
111. What Do You Think?
As an open foresight programme we would welcome your thoughts to help
build a stronger perspective. What do you agree or disagree with, what is
missing and what will be the key impacts and implications? Thank you.