The document discusses the future of U.S. organic agriculture given changes in consumer preferences, climate change, agricultural technology developments, and population growth. It provides historical context on the growth of organic agriculture since the 1930s. Key forces of change are identified as consumer preferences, climate change, technology advances, and population growth. Baseline forecasts are presented for each force based on indicator trends. Four potential future scenarios are outlined: 1) continued organic growth with government and corporate support; 2) constraints on organic farming amid focus on high-yield conventional agriculture; 3) large-scale transformation to organic following health and environmental concerns about GMOs; and 4) collapse of agriculture systems from overuse and lack of sustainability.

1. Food for Thought
Cat Beer, Erin Reily, Mark Grasberger, Pierre Byrne, and Noah
Wilson

2. Central Question
What is the future of U.S organic
agriculture as it relates to changes in
consumer preferences, climate change,
developments in agricultural seed and
satellite farming technology, and
population growth?

3. Historical Context
1930s
•Green Revolution
•Profound agricultural advancements
•Feed growing population
•J.I. Rodale – father of organic agriculture
•Rodale Research Institute
•Focus on healthy living; back to basics – “non-chemical” farming
•International Federation of Organic Agriculture Movements
•Mission - "Lead, unite and assist the organic movement in its
full diversity."
•Increased consumer awareness of healthy living
1970’s
•Introduction of GMO use
•Increased conventional farming technology boosts yields
•Organic agriculture begins developing standards
1990’s
•Specialty retail developments help spur growth
•Organic farmland still represents less than 1% of total2000's-present
1930s
1940s1940’s
1930’s

5. Matrix of Stakeholder Influence

6. Forces of Change

7. Force of Change: Consumer Preferences
● Consumer demand drives growth while supply struggles to keep up
● In turn, major shift in the types and numbers of organic food retailers,
manufacturers, distributors and customer base
● Increase in variety of organic food products and development of private label
product lines
● Larger number & broader range of consumers buying more varieties of organic
food (driver of growth)
● Education and willingness to pay are key factors determining organic
purchases
● Age, race, presence of children and income do not demonstrate tangible,
consistent effect on consumer preference
● Organic product retail sales vary largely by category, most popular being
produce

8. Force of Change: Climate Change
● Increased severity and frequency of extreme weather patterns with rising
price of fossil fuel based chemical fertilizers, herbicides and pesticides puts
huge pressure on agricultural production and most significantly on the
world’s poor
● Water scarcity, extreme weather patterns, rising temperatures, and soil
degradation have exposed the unsustainable nature and massive future
implications of industrial agriculture and food production
● Organic agriculture has well-established practices that simultaneously
mitigate climate change, build resilient farming systems, reduce poverty,
and improve food security
● The United States refused to participate in the Kyoto Treaty

9. Force of Change:
Technology
Force of Change: Technology
● Technological innovations in agriculture over the past several decades have led
to flourishing yields to feed the growing population
● Companies like Monsanto and Syngenta have adopted economies of scale
through their global genetically modified organism businesses
● Progressive satellite farming technology has enabled farmers to grow more
efficiently and productively
● Significant uncertainty remains around the health benefits or drawbacks to
GMOs
● Organic agriculture remains in the dark over what technologies they can use to
stay within organic standards

10. Force of Change:
Population Growth
Force of Change:
Technology
Force of Change: Population Growth
● Constraint of growth
● World population= 7 billion people, 300 million of which live in the United
States
● Population growth drives the demand for immense levels of food production
that the organic industry cannot keep up with due to yields
● Nobel Peace Prize winner Norman Borlaug- plant breeder who won for
increasing worldwide grain yields by 150%
● Anti- organic agriculture
● Impacts of urbanization in the U.S.
● In 2010, ~71% of the population lived in urbanized areas
● Challenge to develop sustainable input-efficient solutions

11. Baseline Forecast

12. Force of Change:
Technology
Baseline Forecast: Consumer Preferences
Indicators:
● Expenditures on fruits and vegetables
● Disposable income
Results:
● Increasing expenditures and disposable income over the past 20 years predicts a continuation of this
trend in the future. Expenditures on fruits and vegetables indicates an increasing focus toward a
more healthful lifestyle and this leads to increasing consumer preferences for organic food over time

13. Force of Change:
Technology
Baseline Forecast: Climate Change
Indicators:
● U.S Average Temperature
● Average Annual Mean Nitrogen Levels
● U.S Annual Precipitation Levels
Results:
● Although precipitation levels stayed level,
both increases in Nitrogen levels and
temperature suggest agriculture will
become increasingly more difficult and
require new farming strategies

14. Force of Change:
Technology
Baseline Forecast: Technology
Indicators:
● Total Factor Productivity
● Total Agriculture Outputs
Results:
● Increased agricultural outputs and TFP suggest technology is poised to continue influencing the
industry

15. Force of Change:
Technology
Baseline Forecast: Population Growth
Indicators:
● U.S. population growth
● World population growth
● Population density
Results:
● Pressure will be put on the United States to focus on production at an industrial scale to sustain a
world of nine billion people. As a result, the government likely will not be as supportive of organic
farmers, thus decreasing the supply of organic food to the U.S.

16. Future Scenarios

17. SEQUENCE OF EVENTS
• Increased awareness regarding personal
health in the population
• Additional states and corporations offering
subsidies to farms
• Increased regulations on the quality of
organic in labelled foods
• Increased consumer confidence and
education tools for quality of organic &
tangible benefits
GALVANIC ORGANICS: Growth
Large
Corporations
State
Governments
Food
Retailers
BUSINESS IMPLICATIONS

18. Food
Retailers
Technology
companies
Independent
small farms
• National government supports
conventional agribusiness to produce
quality over quantity
• Organic farming cannot yield the high crop
yields to support the growing population
• Conventional farming harms the
environment drastically forcing
government to impose strict farming
regulations
OVERCOOKED: Constraint
SEQUENCE OF EVENTS BUSINESS IMPLICATIONS

19. • News outlets and bodies of research begin
confirming that GMOs are unsafe for
human health
• Massive investment in organic agriculture
is made
• Consumers adopt lifestyle shifts towards
only organic food
• Education for organic food and healthy
living permeate the schooling systems
RAISIN’ THE ROOF: Transformation
Shipping
Industry
Investment
Firms
Existing GMO
Companies
SEQUENCE OF EVENTS BUSINESS IMPLICATIONS

20. JUST BEET IT: Collapse
SEQUENCE OF EVENTS BUSINESS IMPLICATIONS
Housing
Industry
Insurance
Industry
Agriculture
Conglomerates
• Governments push agribusiness to
produce as much as possible to meet
demand from rapid population growth
• Organic becomes too
expensive/unprofitable and GMO’s take
center stage
• Environment is in serious trouble; food
gets increasingly harder to produce.
Resources are regulated

21. Questions?