This is the file to explain forsight to beginners. It was composed and used by Nares Damrongchai of the APEC Center for Technology Foresight at Aisawan Hotel in Pattaya at the Forensic Science Foresight Workshop.
1. āļāļēāļĢāļĄāļāļāļāļāļēāļāļ (Foresight)
āđāļĨāļ°āļāļēāļĢāļāļāļāļēāļ āļēāļāļāļāļēāļāļ (Scenario)
āļāļĢ. āļāđāļĢāļĻ āļāļēāļĢāļāļāļĒ (nares@sti.or.th)
āļ,-āļāļēāļāļ§āļĒāļāļēāļĢ āļĻ,āļāļĒ/āļāļēāļāļāļēāļĢāļ/āđāļāļāđāļāđāļĨāļĒ2āđāļāđāļāļ
(APEC Center for Technology Foresight)
āļŠāļēāļāļāļāļēāļāļāļāļ°āļāļĢāļĢāļĄāļāļēāļĢāļāđāļĒāļāļēāļĒāļ§>āļāļĒāļēāļĻāļēāļŠāļāļĢ/ āđāļāļāđāļāđāļĨāļĒ2āđāļĨāļ°āļāļ§āļāļāļĢāļĢāļĄāđāļŦ@āļāļāļēāļ> (āļŠāļ§āļāļ.)
2. āļāļēāļĢāļĄāļāļāļāļāļēāļāļ (foresight) āļIāļāļāļ°āđāļĢ
ïŽ
āļāļĢāļ°āļāļ§āļāļāļēāļĢāļāļēāļāļāļēāļĢāļ/āđāļŦāļAāļāļēāļĢāļ/āđāļāļāļāļēāļāļāļāļĒ@āļēāļāđāļCāļāļĢāļ°āļāļ
āđāļāļĒāļāļēāļDāļāļDāļāļāļāļāļĒāļĢāļāļāļ-āļēāļ āđāļ@āļ āļ-āļēāļāļŠāļāļāļĄ āđāļĻāļĢāļĐāļāļ>āļ āļŠ>Hāļ
āđāļ§āļāļĨ-āļāļĄ āđāļāļāđāļāđāļĨāļĒ2 āļāļēāļĢāđāļĄIāļāļ āļŊāļĨāļŊ āļ2HāđāļCāļāļKāļāđāļĢāļāļāļĨāļāļāļāđāļŦ-
āđāļŦāļAāļāļēāļĢāļ/āđāļ>āļ āļAāļāļŠāļĢāļĢāļāļāļāļāļ§āļēāļāđāļĄ@āđāļŦ-āđāļ>āļ āđāļĨāļ°āļāļ§āļēāļĄāđāļĄ@
āđāļ@ āļāļāļāļ2HāļāļēāļāļāļĨ>āļāļāļāļŠāļāļēāļāļāļēāļĢāļ/āđāļ-
ïŽ
āļāļĢāļ°āļāļ§āļāļāļēāļĢāļ2Kāđāļ-āļāļāļēāļĢāļĄ2āļŠ@āļ§āļāļĢ@āļ§āļĄāļāļāļāļ,-āļĄāļŠ@āļ§āļāđāļ-āļŠ@āļ§āļāđāļŠ2āļĒ
2
āļāļ§āļēāļĄāļāļĨ-āļēāļ2Hāļāļ°āļ>āļāļāļāļāļāļĢāļāļ āđāļĨāļ°āļāļ§āļēāļĄāļĄA@āļāļĄHāļāļ2Hāļāļ°āđāļŦ-āļāļāļēāļāļ
āļ2āļ2āļāļ§@āļēāđāļ@āļāļāļĢA@āļāļ@āļāđāļ
H
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3. āļ āļēāļāļāļāļēāļāļ (scenario) āļIāļāļāļ°āđāļĢ
ïŽ
āđāļĢIāļāļāđāļĨ@āļēāđāļŦāļAāļāļēāļĢāļ/āļ2HāđāļCāļāđāļāđāļ-āđāļāļāļāļēāļāļ āļāļēāđāļŦ-āļŠāļēāļĄāļēāļĢāļāļ>āļāļāļāļēāļāļēāļĢ
H
āđāļCāļāļ āļēāļāđāļāđāļāļāļāļāļēāļ@āļēāļĒ
ïŽ
āļ āļēāļāļāļāļēāļāļāļIāļāđāļĢIāļāļāļ2HāđāļCāļāļāļĢ>āļāđāļ- (plausible) āļĄ>āđāļ@āļ āļēāļāļ2Hāļ@āļēāļāļ°āđāļCāļ
H
(expected) āļŦāļĢIāļāļ2Hāļāļ§āļĢāļāļ°āđāļCāļ (preferred)
ïŽ
āļ āļēāļāļāļāļēāļāļāđāļCāļāļāļēāļĢāļāļāļ-āļāļĄāļāļāļēāļāļ āđāļIHāļāđāļāļĨ2HāļĒāļāļāļ§āļēāļĄāđāļĄ@āđāļ@ āļāļāļ
(uncertainties) āļāļēāļāļāļēāļĢāļAāļāļāļēāļĄāđāļCāļāļ-āļāđāļ-āđāļāļĢ2āļĒāļ
ïŽ
āļ āļēāļāļāļāļēāļāļāļŠāļĢ-āļēāļāļāļ§āļēāļĄāđāļ-āļēāđāļāđāļ2HāļĒāļ§āļāļāļāļ>āļŠāļĄāļāļāļ/āļāļāļāđāļĢāļāļāļĨāļāļāļ
āļ@āļēāļāđ āļ2āļāļēāđāļĢāļēāđāļāļŠ,@āļāļāļēāļāļ
H
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4. Scenario Planning at Shell (1)
âĒ Set up a new department called Group
Planning in the early 1970s
âĒ Looked for the event that might affect the price
of oil, which had been steady since World War
II
âĒ Wrote up two sets of scenarios:-
â the oil price would stay stable
â an oil price crisis sparked by OPEC
1 February 2010 APEC Center for Technology Foresight 4
5. Scenario Planning at Shell (2)
âĒ When the energy crisis burst upon the world, only
Shell was prepared for the changed.
âĒ From one of the weaker of the seven largest global
oil companies, Shell became one of the two largest
and the most profitable.
âĒ In addition, scenario planning also helped Shell
anticipate the fall of Communism in Russia and its
effect on natural gas prices, while other oil
companies were mostly caught unaware
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7. Water Purification
Single Disciplines Multiple Multiple Disciplines: User Group/
Disciplines: Fully Integrated Application
Partially
Integrated
Traditional Transitional Evolved
Filters and Catalytic Functionalized, General Populace/
Catalysts Membranes Controlled Pore Cleaner Water,
Size, Selective Safer from Disease
Catalytic Filters
and Membranes
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8. The generic foresight process
framework
inputs Strategic intelligence scanning, Delphi
Emerging issues/trends analysis
analysis
Foresight
interpretation Systems thinking, Causal Layered Analysis
prospection Scenarios, visioning, backcasts, roadmaps
outputs Reports, presentations, workshops, multimedia
Strategy development & strategic planning:
individual, workgroup, organisation, society,
strategy
etc.
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Source: Voros (2003)
9. āļāļēāļĢāļāļēāļāļāļēāļĢāļ/āļĄ>āđāļ@āļāļēāļĢāļāļēāļāļēāļĒ
(Foresight is not forecast)
āļāļēāļĢāļāļēāļāļēāļĒ āļāļēāļĢāļāļēāļāļāļēāļĢāļ/
ïŽ āđāļ-āļāļāļ§āļēāļĄāđāļ@ āļāļāļ ïŽ āļĒāļāļĄāļĢāļāļāļ§āļēāļĄāđāļĄ@āđāļ@ āļāļāļ
ïŽ āļ>āļāļāļāļāļ§āļēāļĄāđāļŠ2HāļĒāļ ïŽ āļāļēāļāļ§āļēāļĄāđāļŠ2HāļĒāļāđāļŦ-āļāļāđāļāļ
ïŽ āļĄ2āđāļ2āļĒāļāļāļāļēāļāļāđāļ2āļĒāļ§ ïŽ āļĄ2āļāļāļēāļāļāđāļ-āļŦāļĨāļēāļāļŦāļĨāļēāļĒ
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11. APEC Member Economies
APEC Official Observers
1 February 2010 APEC
âĒ Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) Secretariat Center for Technology Foresight 11
âĒ Pacific Economic Cooperation Council (PECC)
âĒ Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) ÂĐ 2008 APEC Secretariat
14. South Africa in1990âs
ïŽ
Feb. 1990 Nelson Mandela was released from prison after 27 years
ïŽ
R. W. de Klerk leader of the ruling white minority National Party
(NP) allowed the African National Congress (ANC), Pan African
Congress (PAC), South African Communist Party (SACP), etc. to be
legalized
ïŽ
The first all-race elections were to be held in April 1994
ïŽ
Dozen of âforumsâ were set up creating temporary structures that
gathered together the broadest possible range of stakeholders to
discuss the future of South Africa
ïŽ
They ranged from informal workshops to formal, public negotiations
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15. South Africa in crisis
âĒThe present systemâs lack of
legitimacy
âĒWidespread mistrust of the security
force
âĒA lack of faith in the judicial system
âĒRepression, intimidation, intolerance,
and political violence
âĒIncreasing exploitation of ethnic and
regional divisions
âĒThe collapse of black local authorities
and the breakdown of services in many
areas
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16. The Mont Fleur Project
ïŽ
uniquely used scenarios as a tool for discovering common
ground
ïŽ
22 prominent South Africans - politicians, activists,
academics, and businessman from across the ideological
spectrum - to develop and disseminate a set of stories about
what might happen in their countries over 1992-2002
ïŽ
It did not deal with the differences among the
participants, but to find and enlarge the common ground
ïŽ
The set of scenarios developed were widely disseminated and
discussed using documents, video, and discussed the
scenarios with > 50 diverse groups
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17. 7 November 2009 APEC Center for Technology Foresight www.apecforesight.org 17
18. 7 November 2009 APEC Center for Technology Foresight www.apecforesight.org 18
19. 7 November 2009 APEC Center for Technology Foresight www.apecforesight.org 19
20. 7 November 2009 APEC Center for Technology Foresight www.apecforesight.org 20
21. 7 November 2009 APEC Center for Technology Foresight www.apecforesight.org 21
22. 7 November 2009 APEC Center for Technology Foresight www.apecforesight.org 22
27. Looking to the Future
Scenario A
Possible and Plausible Futures
Expected
Today
early
weak
signals of Preferred
change
Scenario B
Time modified from Bezold and Hancock 1993
Source:
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28. āļāļāļēāļāļāļāļāļāļĢāļ°āļāļāļāļāļŠ,āļāļĢāļĻāļāđāļāļĒ
ïĨ āļāļĢāļ°āđāļāļĻāđāļāļĒāļāļāļāđāļĢāļēāļāļēāļāđāļāļĨ2HāļĒāļāđāļCāļāļāļĒ@āļēāļāđāļĢāđāļ 10 āļ2āļ-āļēāļāļŦāļ-āļē â
āļāļēāļĢāļ-āļē āļAāļāļŠāļēāļŦāļāļĢāļĢāļĄ āļāļēāļĢāļ@āļēāļāļāļĢāļ°āđāļāļĻ āļŠāļāļāļĄ āļāļēāļĢāļĻDāļāļĐāļē āļāļ§āļēāļĄ
āļĄHāļāļāļ āļŊāļĨāļŊ
ïĨ āļĢāļ°āļāļāļāļāļŠ,āļāļĢāđāļāļĒāļāļ°āđāļāļĨ2HāļĒāļāđāļāļāļĒ@āļēāļāđāļĢāļ@āļēāļĄāļāļĨāļēāļāļŠāļ āļēāļ
āđāļĻāļĢāļĐāļāļ>āļ āļŠāļāļāļĄ āļ2āđāļāļĨ2HāļĒāļāđāļ
H
ïĨ āļ,-āđāļ2HāļĒāļ§āļ-āļāļāļ-āļāļāļŠāļĢ-āļēāļāļāļ§āļēāļĄāļŠāļēāļĄāļēāļĢāļāļāļ°āđāļĢāđāļ>HāļĄāļ-āļēāļ
ïĨ āļĄ2āļāļ°āđāļĢāļ-āļēāļāđāļCāļāļāļāļāļĒāđāļĄ@āđāļ@ āļāļāļ
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