eyes on tomorrow...




                      Nares Damrongchai @APEC Center for
                      Technology Foresigh...
Nares Damrongchai @APEC Center for
Technology Foresight                      2
                           Source: Picture ...
Nares Damrongchai   Futures of Low Carbon Society
Germany 2020




20 November 2009   APEC Center for Technology Foresight
                                                 ...
DBR trend map showing growth-
                                                  related MacroTrends




20 November 2009  ...
20 November 2009   APEC Center for Technology Foresight
                                                          6
Trends
                        Economic




Technology                                   Environment
 (Google)            ...
Scenario logic
                       Uncertainty1 (+)




                   scenario1      scenario2

Uncertainty2 (-)  ...
APEC Center for Technology Foresight Global Scenarios to 2025 (2005)
                      Source: The Shell
      www.ape...
Can you beat me on
                  FORESIGHT?




Nares Damrongchai @APEC Center for
Technology Foresight               ...
What's the difference?




Nares Damrongchai @APEC Center for
Technology Foresight                 11
The Johari Window


   Strategic planning




          trends         KNOWN     UNKNOWN        environment
              ...
Thailand Scenarios 2020




20 November 2009    APEC Center for Technology Foresight
                                     ...
Traditional           Dynamic Mekhong                   Violent
    Thai Mackerel         Shrimp Spicy Soup               ...
Process Flow of Scenario Planning




   Trends        Uncertainties     Scenarios     Scenarios
Identification   Identifi...
2010
       2015
                       2020
                              2025




          Thank you!
APEC Center for Technology Foresight


   Established in 1998 under Asia-Pacific
   Economic Cooperation (APEC)
      No...
APEC Member Economies




APEC Official Observers
• Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) Secretariat Damrongcha...
Mission of APEC CTF

       •RESEARCH: APEC-wide Foresight Studies
       –7 Projects finished since 1998, focusing on hig...
Our Customers
●Siam Cement Group, Premier Group, CDG
Group, Ministry of Public Health, SCI Research
and Innovation Co.,Ltd...
Foresight for cis
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Foresight for cis

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Slides I used in the training workshop for the ASEAN City Innovation System project, 17 August 2010.

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Foresight for cis

  1. 1. eyes on tomorrow... Nares Damrongchai @APEC Center for Technology Foresight 1
  2. 2. Nares Damrongchai @APEC Center for Technology Foresight 2 Source: Picture of the Future, Siemens (2005)
  3. 3. Nares Damrongchai Futures of Low Carbon Society
  4. 4. Germany 2020 20 November 2009 APEC Center for Technology Foresight 4
  5. 5. DBR trend map showing growth- related MacroTrends 20 November 2009 APEC Center for Technology Foresight 5
  6. 6. 20 November 2009 APEC Center for Technology Foresight 6
  7. 7. Trends Economic Technology Environment (Google) (Green) STEEP Society Politic (Grey)
  8. 8. Scenario logic Uncertainty1 (+) scenario1 scenario2 Uncertainty2 (-) Uncertainty2 (+) scenario3 scenario4 Uncertainty1 (-)
  9. 9. APEC Center for Technology Foresight Global Scenarios to 2025 (2005) Source: The Shell www.apecforesight.org 9
  10. 10. Can you beat me on FORESIGHT? Nares Damrongchai @APEC Center for Technology Foresight 10
  11. 11. What's the difference? Nares Damrongchai @APEC Center for Technology Foresight 11
  12. 12. The Johari Window Strategic planning trends KNOWN UNKNOWN environment KNOWNS KNOWNS scanning KNOWN UNKNOWN imagination Knowledge UNKNOWNS management UNKNOWNS Foresight
  13. 13. Thailand Scenarios 2020 20 November 2009 APEC Center for Technology Foresight 13
  14. 14. Traditional Dynamic Mekhong Violent Thai Mackerel Shrimp Spicy Soup Meat Soup 20 November 2009 APEC Center for Technology Foresight 14
  15. 15. Process Flow of Scenario Planning Trends Uncertainties Scenarios Scenarios Identification Identification Logic Design Writing
  16. 16. 2010 2015 2020 2025 Thank you!
  17. 17. APEC Center for Technology Foresight Established in 1998 under Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC)  Now part of STI, Thailand Nares Damrongchai @APEC Center for Technology Foresight 18
  18. 18. APEC Member Economies APEC Official Observers • Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) Secretariat Damrongchai @APEC • Pacific Economic Cooperation Council (PECC) • Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) Nares Technology Foresight Center for 19 © 2008 APEC Secretariat
  19. 19. Mission of APEC CTF •RESEARCH: APEC-wide Foresight Studies –7 Projects finished since 1998, focusing on high impact area such as water, education, nanotechnology and energy –Mostly funded by both NSTDA and APEC –Methodologies include Delphi, Scenarios, and TRM •CONSULTING: for Public and Private Sectors •TRAINING: Seminars and Workshops (2-3 times a year) ●Conference on Foresight and Emerging Technologies Towards “Best Practice” in Technology Foresight Nares Damrongchai @APEC Center for 20 Technology Foresight
  20. 20. Our Customers ●Siam Cement Group, Premier Group, CDG Group, Ministry of Public Health, SCI Research and Innovation Co.,Ltd., CAT Telecom Pubic Company Limited, Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand, Department of Agriculture, Institute of Solar Energy Technology Development, Petroleum Institute of Thailand, TRIDI, KNIT, Kasetsart University, Parliamentary Office, TPA, SIRIM, NISTPASS, and many others. Nares Damrongchai @APEC Center for 21 Technology Foresight

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