This document discusses risk assessment and the prediction of dangerousness and violence. It covers 3 types of predictive schemes and notes the first generation of research found mental illness alone did not predict violence accurately. Later research focused on risk factors to assess risk with moderate accuracy. Prediction of specific types of violence like sexual offending, domestic violence, child abuse, and suicide were also discussed. Guidelines, tools, and statistics related to predicting and preventing these events were provided.

1. FROM DANGEROUSNESS
TO RISK ASSESSMENT
Chapter 6

2. Risk Assessment
 Risk assessment – the process of
conceptualizing hazards in order to make
judgments about their likelihood and the need
for various preventative measures

3. Risk Assessment
 3 types of predictive schemes (Morris & Miller,
1985)
 clinical prediction: based on clinical experience and
judgment
 actuarial prediction: based on statistical formulas
 anamnestic prediction: based on analysis of how a
particular person has acted in the past in similar situations

4. Predicting Dangerousness
 Practical predictions of future dangerousness
 parole boards, prison release review boards
 human resource managers
 school psychologists
 police

5. 1st Generation of Research
 Few studies done, with most focusing on the
relationship between mental illness and violence
 mentally ill are less prone to violence and have lower
arrest rates
 mental health professionals are unable to predict
dangerousness or violence accurately

6. Relevant Rulings
 Baxstrom v. Harold (1966)
 Baxstrom had been held in a state hospital after
his criminal sentence had expired, which was
found to be a violation of equal protection
 Aftermath
 After5 years, less than 3% of released inmates had to
return to security hospitals

7. Relevant Rulings
 Barefoot v. Estelle (1983)
 convictedof capital murder of a police officer
 sentencing jury must consider “future violence”
 Appeal
 American Psychiatric Association submitted an
amicus brief reporting that mental health professionals
are unable to predict with an acceptable degree of
reliability that a particular criminal will commit other
crimes in the future

8. Relevant Rulings
 Barefoot v. Estelle (1983) Ruling
 Supreme Court did not accept the argument that
mental health professionals were no better off at
predicting dangerousness than laypersons
 Supreme Court upheld Barefoot’s death sentence

9. Problems with Predictions of
Dangerousness
 Courts did not accept the information provided
in the American Psychiatric Association’s
amicus brief
 Conceptualization of “dangerousness”

10. 2nd Generation of Research
 Shift in focus from “dangerous/not dangerous”
to measuring risk
 New studies focused on factors that are
predictive of risk
 Examples
 History
of previous violence
 Psychopathology
 Consensus that risk assessment can be made
with “moderate to good” accuracy

11. Prediction of Violence
 Mental disorder
 Vast majority of people with mental disorders are not
violent
 Douglas and Webster (1999) identified 20
variables that seem to be related to the risk of
violence
 Static – do not change
 Dynamic – change over times and situations
 Risk management
 Stable and supportive environments lower the risk of
violence

12. Prediction Sexual Offending
 According to the U.S. Department of Justice
 1/4 women and 1/6 men will experience some sort of
sexual assault during their lifetime
 67% of sexual assaults occur to those under the age
of 18
 2/3 are committed by someone who knows the victim
 All 50 states have registration and tracking
systems
 Missouri:
http://www.mshp.dps.missouri.gov/MSHPWeb/Pat
rolDivisions/CRID/SOR/factsheet.html
 National Sexual Assault Hotline: 1-800-656-4673

13. Prediction of Sexual Offending
 Determination of how likely to commit a similar
offense in the future
 Follow-up studies (e.g., Quinsey et al., 1995)
 Rapists: 22.8% reconviction rate
 Child molesters: 20.4% reconviction rate
 Incest offenders: 8.5%

14. Prediction of Domestic Violence
 National Domestic Violence Hotline: 1-800-799-
7233
 ¼ women will experience DV in her lifetime
 85% of DV victims are women
 Occurs regardless of age, SES, religion,
nationality, educational background
 Most cases are not reported to the police
 Approximately 20% victims obtain civil protection
orders
 www.ncadv.org/files/DomesticViolenceFactSheet
(National).pdf

15. Prediction of Domestic Violence
 Danger signs
 Men who have witnessed family violence as
children
 Low education and low income
 Alcohol abuse
 About half of all men who batter their spouses
also batter their children
 Spousal Assault Risk Assessment Guide

16. Prediction of Child Abuse
 http://www.childwelfare.gov/systemwide/statisti
cs/can/stat_natl_state.cfm
 http://www.childhelp.org/pages/statistics
 In2009, 3.3 million child abuse allegations
involving 6 million children

17. Prediction of Child Abuse
 Belsky 4 ecological levels of risks:
 ontogenic level: being young, a single parent,
poor
 microsystem level: marital discord
 ecosystem level: employment stress, social
support
 macrosystem level: cultural values and attitudes
 Child Abuse Potential Inventory (CAPI)
 Acceptable reliability and validity

18. Prediction of Suicide
 Low accuracy rates in suicide prediction
 Predictions of suicide risk seem to have little
or no validity
 National Suicide Prevention Lifeline
 1-800-273-TALK