The document discusses background, problems, purpose, objectives and significance of a study on national inflation rates in Indonesia. It provides context on inflation calculation and its importance. The main problem is choosing the best fitted time series model to forecast inflation. The purpose is to identify, calculate and explain the best fitted model for the given data set. Objectives include studying Indonesia's inflation, measuring one-step ahead forecasts with suitable models, analyzing time series components, and finding the best fit model. The study aims to help government, academics and businesses understand economic conditions.
Aspirations and well-being outcomes in EthiopiaEvidence from a randomized fi...essp2
This document summarizes the results of a randomized field experiment conducted in Ethiopia to study aspirations and well-being outcomes. The experiment involved screening mini-documentaries of local success stories for randomly selected individuals to exogenously impact their aspirations. Surveys were conducted before and after the screenings, as well as 6 months later, to measure impacts. The results show that exposure to the documentaries led to small increases in individual aspirations, hypothetical demand for loans, and savings behavior. The impacts were larger for individuals with initially lower aspirations. The findings provide evidence that aspirations are malleable and can be influenced by exposing individuals to inspiring stories of others.
The document summarizes the agricultural crisis in India and its causes. It notes that agriculture has shifted from a cyclical model to an input-intensive linear model, leading to economic, ecological and socio-political problems. Key issues include rising costs of cultivation and farmer debt levels, ecological damage from monocropping, tens of thousands of farmer suicides, lack of employment opportunities, and stagnating or declining farm incomes despite rising costs of living. The situation has worsened inequality between rural and urban populations. Solutions are needed to move agriculture to a more sustainable model.
This document summarizes the shape context algorithm for shape matching and object recognition. It discusses computing shape contexts, which describe the distribution of relative positions of points around a shape. Shape contexts are represented as histograms of distances and angles between points. The algorithm finds correspondences between points on two shapes by matching their shape contexts and minimizing the total cost. Additional cost terms can be added, such as color or texture differences. The algorithm is shown to be robust to noise and inexact rotations.
The Indian stock market ended the day on a weak note, with the Sensex and Nifty down 1.1%. Mid and small cap indices also closed lower. Select power, FMCG and healthcare stocks gained, while metals, real estate and banking stocks declined. Steel consumption in India rose 9.8% in the first half of the fiscal year. BHEL secured a Rs. 3,700 crore contract to set up a 700 MW power plant in Karnataka. Food inflation dipped marginally but is expected to ease further with the arrival of new crops.
The document provides an overview of business opportunities in Thailand. It discusses Thailand's rankings as a top prospective host economy for foreign direct investment from 2012-2014. Specific industries of opportunity highlighted include agriculture and food processing, automotive, machinery, electronics and alternative energy. Details are given on Thailand's strong food and automotive industries, noting Thailand's position as the world's top exporter of cassava and a top global producer of vehicles.
This document summarizes research on predicting obstructive sleep apnea through statistical models and clinical prediction formulas. It discusses four models that use variables like witnessed apnea, hypertension, BMI, age, snoring, and neck circumference. One model called the Multivariable Apnea Prediction Index uses a 13-question survey on sleep symptoms. The MAP index can predict likelihood of sleep apnea based on a person's symptoms, BMI, age, and sex. Studies show the MAP index provides generally accurate predictions when applied to new patient populations beyond where it was originally developed.
Deutsche EuroShop - Conference Call Presentation - Interim Report H1 2012Deutsche EuroShop AG
- Retail sales in H1 2012 were up 0.3% overall in German shopping centers on a like-for-like basis, with food sales up 2.3% and sports up 6.3%. International sales were up 3.0%.
- The company's loan structure has an average interest rate of 4.32% and average maturity of 6.84 years, with 46.5% of debt between 5-10 years.
- Key financial figures for H1 2012 show a 16% increase in EBIT and 20% increase in consolidated profit compared to H1 2011.
The Indian stock market indices gained slightly to reach their highest closing levels in over 32 months. Key sectors like realty, capital goods and metals rose, while FMCG stocks declined. The market pared some gains in afternoon trade due to profit booking. Cement prices are expected to rise in October in some regions. L&T received a Rs1,610 crore order, and M&M will raise vehicle prices starting October 1.
Aspirations and well-being outcomes in EthiopiaEvidence from a randomized fi...essp2
This document summarizes the results of a randomized field experiment conducted in Ethiopia to study aspirations and well-being outcomes. The experiment involved screening mini-documentaries of local success stories for randomly selected individuals to exogenously impact their aspirations. Surveys were conducted before and after the screenings, as well as 6 months later, to measure impacts. The results show that exposure to the documentaries led to small increases in individual aspirations, hypothetical demand for loans, and savings behavior. The impacts were larger for individuals with initially lower aspirations. The findings provide evidence that aspirations are malleable and can be influenced by exposing individuals to inspiring stories of others.
The document summarizes the agricultural crisis in India and its causes. It notes that agriculture has shifted from a cyclical model to an input-intensive linear model, leading to economic, ecological and socio-political problems. Key issues include rising costs of cultivation and farmer debt levels, ecological damage from monocropping, tens of thousands of farmer suicides, lack of employment opportunities, and stagnating or declining farm incomes despite rising costs of living. The situation has worsened inequality between rural and urban populations. Solutions are needed to move agriculture to a more sustainable model.
This document summarizes the shape context algorithm for shape matching and object recognition. It discusses computing shape contexts, which describe the distribution of relative positions of points around a shape. Shape contexts are represented as histograms of distances and angles between points. The algorithm finds correspondences between points on two shapes by matching their shape contexts and minimizing the total cost. Additional cost terms can be added, such as color or texture differences. The algorithm is shown to be robust to noise and inexact rotations.
The Indian stock market ended the day on a weak note, with the Sensex and Nifty down 1.1%. Mid and small cap indices also closed lower. Select power, FMCG and healthcare stocks gained, while metals, real estate and banking stocks declined. Steel consumption in India rose 9.8% in the first half of the fiscal year. BHEL secured a Rs. 3,700 crore contract to set up a 700 MW power plant in Karnataka. Food inflation dipped marginally but is expected to ease further with the arrival of new crops.
The document provides an overview of business opportunities in Thailand. It discusses Thailand's rankings as a top prospective host economy for foreign direct investment from 2012-2014. Specific industries of opportunity highlighted include agriculture and food processing, automotive, machinery, electronics and alternative energy. Details are given on Thailand's strong food and automotive industries, noting Thailand's position as the world's top exporter of cassava and a top global producer of vehicles.
This document summarizes research on predicting obstructive sleep apnea through statistical models and clinical prediction formulas. It discusses four models that use variables like witnessed apnea, hypertension, BMI, age, snoring, and neck circumference. One model called the Multivariable Apnea Prediction Index uses a 13-question survey on sleep symptoms. The MAP index can predict likelihood of sleep apnea based on a person's symptoms, BMI, age, and sex. Studies show the MAP index provides generally accurate predictions when applied to new patient populations beyond where it was originally developed.
Deutsche EuroShop - Conference Call Presentation - Interim Report H1 2012Deutsche EuroShop AG
- Retail sales in H1 2012 were up 0.3% overall in German shopping centers on a like-for-like basis, with food sales up 2.3% and sports up 6.3%. International sales were up 3.0%.
- The company's loan structure has an average interest rate of 4.32% and average maturity of 6.84 years, with 46.5% of debt between 5-10 years.
- Key financial figures for H1 2012 show a 16% increase in EBIT and 20% increase in consolidated profit compared to H1 2011.
The Indian stock market indices gained slightly to reach their highest closing levels in over 32 months. Key sectors like realty, capital goods and metals rose, while FMCG stocks declined. The market pared some gains in afternoon trade due to profit booking. Cement prices are expected to rise in October in some regions. L&T received a Rs1,610 crore order, and M&M will raise vehicle prices starting October 1.
Iirs Artificial Naural network based Urban growth ModelingTushar Dholakia
1) Artificial neural networks were used to model urban growth by reducing subjectivity and calibration time compared to traditional models.
2) The neural network was trained using spatial data on driving factors like distance to roads, city core, and existing development from GIS to predict urban growth probability.
3) The neural network model was able to accurately simulate past urban growth in Dehradun, India in 2001 and 2005 based on maps and data from 1997, 2001, and 2005, demonstrating the ability to predict urban expansion.
The document examines how Asia remains important for global economic growth and wealth creation despite challenges from the eurozone crisis. It revisits conclusions from a previous report that Asia's high net worth population will grow substantially through 2015, driven primarily by China, India, and Indonesia. While Asia has remained relatively insulated from the eurozone crisis, continued weakness in Europe could potentially impact Asian growth through financial markets, exports, and credit exposure over the medium term. The report aims to stress test previous assumptions about Asia's wealth creation in a more difficult global environment.
Centex Corporation held a homebuilding symposium to discuss the current state of the housing industry and Centex's strategies. The housing market is experiencing a typical downturn with rising foreclosures, slowing economy, and precipitously falling housing starts. Centex is taking immediate actions like reducing land inventory and sales cancellations while conserving cash. Centex is also focusing on restoring profitability through cost reductions and standardized business processes. Centex will allocate capital strategically to markets with the greatest long-term potential and exit those without strong fundamentals to improve margins and returns.
Alan Clayton-Matthews 2013 Economic Forecast presented to Mass Econ 1/18/13taitken1
The document summarizes the state of the Massachusetts economy as presented to MassEcon on January 18, 2013. It finds that the state economy is slowly recovering along with the national economy, with growth expected to gradually accelerate through 2015. Several key points are that the housing market is finally improving, the European debt crisis has negatively impacted exports, and employment growth will be slow until 2014 due to weak recovery and demographic constraints.
GartnerBI SP Session: Harnessing Mobile Intelligence by Steve ReynoldsneutrinoBI
This is President of the Mobile Data Association and CEO of TBS Mobility, Steve Reynold's paper on Harnessing Mobile Intelligence, as presented at Gartner BI & Analytics Summit in Barcelona (5th February 2013) in NeutrinoBI's Solution Provider Session.
Many Thanks to TBS Mobility for agreeing to let us share this presentation.
1) The study analyzes the productivity and determinants of productivity in Korea's ICT industry from 2000-2009.
2) It finds that R&D expenditure and firm age are the key determinants of productivity growth in the ICT industry. R&D and older firms had higher productivity.
3) While hardware productivity grew, the industry needs to focus more on software to maintain growth and competitiveness, as hardware productivity faces constraints from emerging competitors. Investment in software and service firms is recommended.
The document presents financial ratios for Essar Steel Ltd. from March 1999 to March 2011. Some key ratios in recent years include:
- Earnings per share was negative Rs. 0.68 in March 2011, compared to Rs. 0.06 in March 2010.
- Return on equity was negative 1.72% in March 2011, compared to 0.33% in March 2010.
- Debt to equity ratio was 2.18 in March 2011, compared to 2.00 in March 2010.
- Net sales grew 15.84% in March 2011, compared to a 9.14% decline in March 2010.
Is a credit crunch threatening the financing of the economy (BFF 12 june 2012)Cfinancing
The document summarizes recent credit developments in the euro area and Belgium based on a presentation given by Jan Smets.
1) Credit growth to both corporations and households has slowed significantly since the financial crisis, though utilization rates remain high.
2) Factors influencing credit demand and supply include weak economic growth, risk aversion on the part of banks, and tighter credit standards.
3) Liquidity provision by central banks has helped ease credit conditions, but financing costs and balance sheet constraints still weigh on lending.
The document is a presentation from Centex Corporation at the 2008 UBS CEO Conference. It discusses Centex navigating the difficult housing market and preparing for the future. Specifically:
1) Centex is taking actions like reducing costs and debt in response to falling home sales and a challenging economic environment.
2) The company is focusing on improving margins and accumulating cash to strengthen its financial position.
3) Centex aims to emerge from the downturn with a competitive cost structure and the scale to gain market share as smaller homebuilders exit the industry.
Sl12 keynote - will economic growth return - finalcabotmoney
The document summarizes Rob Lutts' presentation at the 23rd Annual Investment Conference & Luncheon on the themes of economic growth returning in 2013, governments' fiscal crisis status, and Cabot's top three investment themes. Lutts discusses that slowly improving global economics, government solutions to sovereign debt crises through currency debasement, and attractive stock valuations provide opportunities for investors willing to take risk. Currency debasement through money printing risks inflation increasing in the next 2-3 years.
This document contains sample problems and calculations related to beta estimation and the cost of equity capital. It includes examples of calculating beta based on market data, leveraged beta, portfolio returns, and required returns for different assets based on their risk levels. The overall document provides examples and calculations to help understand how to measure risk and determine the required return on equity.
The survey shows a decline in business sentiment over the past month. While conditions modestly improved in the past 30 days, the outlook for the next 60 days saw a significant drop. As a result, the index measuring business conditions fell sharply to its lowest level since July. The data indicate the perceived momentum of the recovery may be slowing.
1) Tata Consultancy Services is an IT consulting firm that is a part of the Tata Group. It has experienced significant growth due to the leadership of its Managing Director and CEO Mr. N Chandrasekaran and Executive Director Mr. S Mahalingam.
2) TCS provides a variety of IT services, business solutions, and outsourcing to many industries. It stresses innovation through research and development.
3) In 2010, TCS was awarded a major multi-year contract by the British government to administer the National Employment Savings Trust, among other deals.
The presentation I gave for my 2011 annual review to the key stakeholders in the division. I put a good amount of time into working on the composition, structure & delivery of this presentation, and was very happy with how it went. If you're looking for ideas on how to present yourself in the best possible way to your managers, here's the ticket!
- Marketing budgets continue to grow at a high rate, with B2C-Product companies expecting a 20% increase in the next year.
- Growth in marketing budgets has remained high across sectors, ranging from 0.2% for B2C-Services to 20.4% for B2C-Products.
- B2B-Services companies saw the largest increases in the past, with budget growth of 14.1% expected last survey period.
The cmo survey highlights and insights, feb 2011christinemoorman
The survey found that marketer optimism about the overall US economy reached its highest point in two years, with an optimism score of 63.3 out of 100. Marketer optimism about their own company's revenue prospects continues to accelerate, scoring 73.2 out of 100. Over two-thirds of marketers say they are more optimistic about their company's revenue compared to last quarter, while optimism about the overall US economy increased from the previous quarter.
AMA/Duke - The CMO Survey Highlights And Insights - Feb 2011Ann Honomichl
- Marketing budgets continue to grow at a high rate, with B2C-Product companies expecting a 20% increase in the next year.
- Growth in marketing budgets has remained high across sectors, ranging from 0.2% for B2C-Services to 20.4% for B2C-Products.
- B2B-Services companies saw the largest increases in the past, with budget growth of 14.1% expected last survey period.
The document summarizes several solid reasons to invest in Canada:
1) Canada has a relatively strong economy compared to other G7 nations, with expected above-average GDP growth through 2010-2011 according to various forecasts.
2) Canada has enjoyed healthy employment gains over the past decade and low unemployment.
3) Canada has a sound fiscal position, with federal budget surpluses until recently and expected return to surplus in the medium term, as well as relatively low national debt levels.
This document discusses the growth and impact of social media and technology. It notes that internet usage has grown rapidly globally with over 1 billion users and is projected to reach 2 billion within 10 years. Social media usage has also increased significantly with more people consuming and creating content online. The document explores how technology can be persuasive in changing behaviors and discusses concepts like social objects and influencers to understand online interactions and spread of information. It emphasizes that while technology is neutral, its widespread adoption requires reflection on its societal impacts.
Threats to mobile devices are more prevalent and increasing in scope and complexity. Users of mobile devices desire to take full advantage of the features
available on those devices, but many of the features provide convenience and capability but sacrifice security. This best practices guide outlines steps the users can take to better protect personal devices and information.
Iirs Artificial Naural network based Urban growth ModelingTushar Dholakia
1) Artificial neural networks were used to model urban growth by reducing subjectivity and calibration time compared to traditional models.
2) The neural network was trained using spatial data on driving factors like distance to roads, city core, and existing development from GIS to predict urban growth probability.
3) The neural network model was able to accurately simulate past urban growth in Dehradun, India in 2001 and 2005 based on maps and data from 1997, 2001, and 2005, demonstrating the ability to predict urban expansion.
The document examines how Asia remains important for global economic growth and wealth creation despite challenges from the eurozone crisis. It revisits conclusions from a previous report that Asia's high net worth population will grow substantially through 2015, driven primarily by China, India, and Indonesia. While Asia has remained relatively insulated from the eurozone crisis, continued weakness in Europe could potentially impact Asian growth through financial markets, exports, and credit exposure over the medium term. The report aims to stress test previous assumptions about Asia's wealth creation in a more difficult global environment.
Centex Corporation held a homebuilding symposium to discuss the current state of the housing industry and Centex's strategies. The housing market is experiencing a typical downturn with rising foreclosures, slowing economy, and precipitously falling housing starts. Centex is taking immediate actions like reducing land inventory and sales cancellations while conserving cash. Centex is also focusing on restoring profitability through cost reductions and standardized business processes. Centex will allocate capital strategically to markets with the greatest long-term potential and exit those without strong fundamentals to improve margins and returns.
Alan Clayton-Matthews 2013 Economic Forecast presented to Mass Econ 1/18/13taitken1
The document summarizes the state of the Massachusetts economy as presented to MassEcon on January 18, 2013. It finds that the state economy is slowly recovering along with the national economy, with growth expected to gradually accelerate through 2015. Several key points are that the housing market is finally improving, the European debt crisis has negatively impacted exports, and employment growth will be slow until 2014 due to weak recovery and demographic constraints.
GartnerBI SP Session: Harnessing Mobile Intelligence by Steve ReynoldsneutrinoBI
This is President of the Mobile Data Association and CEO of TBS Mobility, Steve Reynold's paper on Harnessing Mobile Intelligence, as presented at Gartner BI & Analytics Summit in Barcelona (5th February 2013) in NeutrinoBI's Solution Provider Session.
Many Thanks to TBS Mobility for agreeing to let us share this presentation.
1) The study analyzes the productivity and determinants of productivity in Korea's ICT industry from 2000-2009.
2) It finds that R&D expenditure and firm age are the key determinants of productivity growth in the ICT industry. R&D and older firms had higher productivity.
3) While hardware productivity grew, the industry needs to focus more on software to maintain growth and competitiveness, as hardware productivity faces constraints from emerging competitors. Investment in software and service firms is recommended.
The document presents financial ratios for Essar Steel Ltd. from March 1999 to March 2011. Some key ratios in recent years include:
- Earnings per share was negative Rs. 0.68 in March 2011, compared to Rs. 0.06 in March 2010.
- Return on equity was negative 1.72% in March 2011, compared to 0.33% in March 2010.
- Debt to equity ratio was 2.18 in March 2011, compared to 2.00 in March 2010.
- Net sales grew 15.84% in March 2011, compared to a 9.14% decline in March 2010.
Is a credit crunch threatening the financing of the economy (BFF 12 june 2012)Cfinancing
The document summarizes recent credit developments in the euro area and Belgium based on a presentation given by Jan Smets.
1) Credit growth to both corporations and households has slowed significantly since the financial crisis, though utilization rates remain high.
2) Factors influencing credit demand and supply include weak economic growth, risk aversion on the part of banks, and tighter credit standards.
3) Liquidity provision by central banks has helped ease credit conditions, but financing costs and balance sheet constraints still weigh on lending.
The document is a presentation from Centex Corporation at the 2008 UBS CEO Conference. It discusses Centex navigating the difficult housing market and preparing for the future. Specifically:
1) Centex is taking actions like reducing costs and debt in response to falling home sales and a challenging economic environment.
2) The company is focusing on improving margins and accumulating cash to strengthen its financial position.
3) Centex aims to emerge from the downturn with a competitive cost structure and the scale to gain market share as smaller homebuilders exit the industry.
Sl12 keynote - will economic growth return - finalcabotmoney
The document summarizes Rob Lutts' presentation at the 23rd Annual Investment Conference & Luncheon on the themes of economic growth returning in 2013, governments' fiscal crisis status, and Cabot's top three investment themes. Lutts discusses that slowly improving global economics, government solutions to sovereign debt crises through currency debasement, and attractive stock valuations provide opportunities for investors willing to take risk. Currency debasement through money printing risks inflation increasing in the next 2-3 years.
This document contains sample problems and calculations related to beta estimation and the cost of equity capital. It includes examples of calculating beta based on market data, leveraged beta, portfolio returns, and required returns for different assets based on their risk levels. The overall document provides examples and calculations to help understand how to measure risk and determine the required return on equity.
The survey shows a decline in business sentiment over the past month. While conditions modestly improved in the past 30 days, the outlook for the next 60 days saw a significant drop. As a result, the index measuring business conditions fell sharply to its lowest level since July. The data indicate the perceived momentum of the recovery may be slowing.
1) Tata Consultancy Services is an IT consulting firm that is a part of the Tata Group. It has experienced significant growth due to the leadership of its Managing Director and CEO Mr. N Chandrasekaran and Executive Director Mr. S Mahalingam.
2) TCS provides a variety of IT services, business solutions, and outsourcing to many industries. It stresses innovation through research and development.
3) In 2010, TCS was awarded a major multi-year contract by the British government to administer the National Employment Savings Trust, among other deals.
The presentation I gave for my 2011 annual review to the key stakeholders in the division. I put a good amount of time into working on the composition, structure & delivery of this presentation, and was very happy with how it went. If you're looking for ideas on how to present yourself in the best possible way to your managers, here's the ticket!
- Marketing budgets continue to grow at a high rate, with B2C-Product companies expecting a 20% increase in the next year.
- Growth in marketing budgets has remained high across sectors, ranging from 0.2% for B2C-Services to 20.4% for B2C-Products.
- B2B-Services companies saw the largest increases in the past, with budget growth of 14.1% expected last survey period.
The cmo survey highlights and insights, feb 2011christinemoorman
The survey found that marketer optimism about the overall US economy reached its highest point in two years, with an optimism score of 63.3 out of 100. Marketer optimism about their own company's revenue prospects continues to accelerate, scoring 73.2 out of 100. Over two-thirds of marketers say they are more optimistic about their company's revenue compared to last quarter, while optimism about the overall US economy increased from the previous quarter.
AMA/Duke - The CMO Survey Highlights And Insights - Feb 2011Ann Honomichl
- Marketing budgets continue to grow at a high rate, with B2C-Product companies expecting a 20% increase in the next year.
- Growth in marketing budgets has remained high across sectors, ranging from 0.2% for B2C-Services to 20.4% for B2C-Products.
- B2B-Services companies saw the largest increases in the past, with budget growth of 14.1% expected last survey period.
The document summarizes several solid reasons to invest in Canada:
1) Canada has a relatively strong economy compared to other G7 nations, with expected above-average GDP growth through 2010-2011 according to various forecasts.
2) Canada has enjoyed healthy employment gains over the past decade and low unemployment.
3) Canada has a sound fiscal position, with federal budget surpluses until recently and expected return to surplus in the medium term, as well as relatively low national debt levels.
This document discusses the growth and impact of social media and technology. It notes that internet usage has grown rapidly globally with over 1 billion users and is projected to reach 2 billion within 10 years. Social media usage has also increased significantly with more people consuming and creating content online. The document explores how technology can be persuasive in changing behaviors and discusses concepts like social objects and influencers to understand online interactions and spread of information. It emphasizes that while technology is neutral, its widespread adoption requires reflection on its societal impacts.
Similar to Forecast Modelling (Single Variable) (20)
Threats to mobile devices are more prevalent and increasing in scope and complexity. Users of mobile devices desire to take full advantage of the features
available on those devices, but many of the features provide convenience and capability but sacrifice security. This best practices guide outlines steps the users can take to better protect personal devices and information.
“An Outlook of the Ongoing and Future Relationship between Blockchain Technologies and Process-aware Information Systems.” Invited talk at the joint workshop on Blockchain for Information Systems (BC4IS) and Blockchain for Trusted Data Sharing (B4TDS), co-located with with the 36th International Conference on Advanced Information Systems Engineering (CAiSE), 3 June 2024, Limassol, Cyprus.
AI 101: An Introduction to the Basics and Impact of Artificial IntelligenceIndexBug
Imagine a world where machines not only perform tasks but also learn, adapt, and make decisions. This is the promise of Artificial Intelligence (AI), a technology that's not just enhancing our lives but revolutionizing entire industries.
In the rapidly evolving landscape of technologies, XML continues to play a vital role in structuring, storing, and transporting data across diverse systems. The recent advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) present new methodologies for enhancing XML development workflows, introducing efficiency, automation, and intelligent capabilities. This presentation will outline the scope and perspective of utilizing AI in XML development. The potential benefits and the possible pitfalls will be highlighted, providing a balanced view of the subject.
We will explore the capabilities of AI in understanding XML markup languages and autonomously creating structured XML content. Additionally, we will examine the capacity of AI to enrich plain text with appropriate XML markup. Practical examples and methodological guidelines will be provided to elucidate how AI can be effectively prompted to interpret and generate accurate XML markup.
Further emphasis will be placed on the role of AI in developing XSLT, or schemas such as XSD and Schematron. We will address the techniques and strategies adopted to create prompts for generating code, explaining code, or refactoring the code, and the results achieved.
The discussion will extend to how AI can be used to transform XML content. In particular, the focus will be on the use of AI XPath extension functions in XSLT, Schematron, Schematron Quick Fixes, or for XML content refactoring.
The presentation aims to deliver a comprehensive overview of AI usage in XML development, providing attendees with the necessary knowledge to make informed decisions. Whether you’re at the early stages of adopting AI or considering integrating it in advanced XML development, this presentation will cover all levels of expertise.
By highlighting the potential advantages and challenges of integrating AI with XML development tools and languages, the presentation seeks to inspire thoughtful conversation around the future of XML development. We’ll not only delve into the technical aspects of AI-powered XML development but also discuss practical implications and possible future directions.
Full-RAG: A modern architecture for hyper-personalizationZilliz
Mike Del Balso, CEO & Co-Founder at Tecton, presents "Full RAG," a novel approach to AI recommendation systems, aiming to push beyond the limitations of traditional models through a deep integration of contextual insights and real-time data, leveraging the Retrieval-Augmented Generation architecture. This talk will outline Full RAG's potential to significantly enhance personalization, address engineering challenges such as data management and model training, and introduce data enrichment with reranking as a key solution. Attendees will gain crucial insights into the importance of hyperpersonalization in AI, the capabilities of Full RAG for advanced personalization, and strategies for managing complex data integrations for deploying cutting-edge AI solutions.
Generating privacy-protected synthetic data using Secludy and MilvusZilliz
During this demo, the founders of Secludy will demonstrate how their system utilizes Milvus to store and manipulate embeddings for generating privacy-protected synthetic data. Their approach not only maintains the confidentiality of the original data but also enhances the utility and scalability of LLMs under privacy constraints. Attendees, including machine learning engineers, data scientists, and data managers, will witness first-hand how Secludy's integration with Milvus empowers organizations to harness the power of LLMs securely and efficiently.
Cosa hanno in comune un mattoncino Lego e la backdoor XZ?Speck&Tech
ABSTRACT: A prima vista, un mattoncino Lego e la backdoor XZ potrebbero avere in comune il fatto di essere entrambi blocchi di costruzione, o dipendenze di progetti creativi e software. La realtà è che un mattoncino Lego e il caso della backdoor XZ hanno molto di più di tutto ciò in comune.
Partecipate alla presentazione per immergervi in una storia di interoperabilità, standard e formati aperti, per poi discutere del ruolo importante che i contributori hanno in una comunità open source sostenibile.
BIO: Sostenitrice del software libero e dei formati standard e aperti. È stata un membro attivo dei progetti Fedora e openSUSE e ha co-fondato l'Associazione LibreItalia dove è stata coinvolta in diversi eventi, migrazioni e formazione relativi a LibreOffice. In precedenza ha lavorato a migrazioni e corsi di formazione su LibreOffice per diverse amministrazioni pubbliche e privati. Da gennaio 2020 lavora in SUSE come Software Release Engineer per Uyuni e SUSE Manager e quando non segue la sua passione per i computer e per Geeko coltiva la sua curiosità per l'astronomia (da cui deriva il suo nickname deneb_alpha).
Climate Impact of Software Testing at Nordic Testing DaysKari Kakkonen
My slides at Nordic Testing Days 6.6.2024
Climate impact / sustainability of software testing discussed on the talk. ICT and testing must carry their part of global responsibility to help with the climat warming. We can minimize the carbon footprint but we can also have a carbon handprint, a positive impact on the climate. Quality characteristics can be added with sustainability, and then measured continuously. Test environments can be used less, and in smaller scale and on demand. Test techniques can be used in optimizing or minimizing number of tests. Test automation can be used to speed up testing.
Best 20 SEO Techniques To Improve Website Visibility In SERPPixlogix Infotech
Boost your website's visibility with proven SEO techniques! Our latest blog dives into essential strategies to enhance your online presence, increase traffic, and rank higher on search engines. From keyword optimization to quality content creation, learn how to make your site stand out in the crowded digital landscape. Discover actionable tips and expert insights to elevate your SEO game.
Ocean lotus Threat actors project by John Sitima 2024 (1).pptxSitimaJohn
Ocean Lotus cyber threat actors represent a sophisticated, persistent, and politically motivated group that poses a significant risk to organizations and individuals in the Southeast Asian region. Their continuous evolution and adaptability underscore the need for robust cybersecurity measures and international cooperation to identify and mitigate the threats posed by such advanced persistent threat groups.
HCL Notes und Domino Lizenzkostenreduzierung in der Welt von DLAUpanagenda
Webinar Recording: https://www.panagenda.com/webinars/hcl-notes-und-domino-lizenzkostenreduzierung-in-der-welt-von-dlau/
DLAU und die Lizenzen nach dem CCB- und CCX-Modell sind für viele in der HCL-Community seit letztem Jahr ein heißes Thema. Als Notes- oder Domino-Kunde haben Sie vielleicht mit unerwartet hohen Benutzerzahlen und Lizenzgebühren zu kämpfen. Sie fragen sich vielleicht, wie diese neue Art der Lizenzierung funktioniert und welchen Nutzen sie Ihnen bringt. Vor allem wollen Sie sicherlich Ihr Budget einhalten und Kosten sparen, wo immer möglich. Das verstehen wir und wir möchten Ihnen dabei helfen!
Wir erklären Ihnen, wie Sie häufige Konfigurationsprobleme lösen können, die dazu führen können, dass mehr Benutzer gezählt werden als nötig, und wie Sie überflüssige oder ungenutzte Konten identifizieren und entfernen können, um Geld zu sparen. Es gibt auch einige Ansätze, die zu unnötigen Ausgaben führen können, z. B. wenn ein Personendokument anstelle eines Mail-Ins für geteilte Mailboxen verwendet wird. Wir zeigen Ihnen solche Fälle und deren Lösungen. Und natürlich erklären wir Ihnen das neue Lizenzmodell.
Nehmen Sie an diesem Webinar teil, bei dem HCL-Ambassador Marc Thomas und Gastredner Franz Walder Ihnen diese neue Welt näherbringen. Es vermittelt Ihnen die Tools und das Know-how, um den Überblick zu bewahren. Sie werden in der Lage sein, Ihre Kosten durch eine optimierte Domino-Konfiguration zu reduzieren und auch in Zukunft gering zu halten.
Diese Themen werden behandelt
- Reduzierung der Lizenzkosten durch Auffinden und Beheben von Fehlkonfigurationen und überflüssigen Konten
- Wie funktionieren CCB- und CCX-Lizenzen wirklich?
- Verstehen des DLAU-Tools und wie man es am besten nutzt
- Tipps für häufige Problembereiche, wie z. B. Team-Postfächer, Funktions-/Testbenutzer usw.
- Praxisbeispiele und Best Practices zum sofortigen Umsetzen
UiPath Test Automation using UiPath Test Suite series, part 6DianaGray10
Welcome to UiPath Test Automation using UiPath Test Suite series part 6. In this session, we will cover Test Automation with generative AI and Open AI.
UiPath Test Automation with generative AI and Open AI webinar offers an in-depth exploration of leveraging cutting-edge technologies for test automation within the UiPath platform. Attendees will delve into the integration of generative AI, a test automation solution, with Open AI advanced natural language processing capabilities.
Throughout the session, participants will discover how this synergy empowers testers to automate repetitive tasks, enhance testing accuracy, and expedite the software testing life cycle. Topics covered include the seamless integration process, practical use cases, and the benefits of harnessing AI-driven automation for UiPath testing initiatives. By attending this webinar, testers, and automation professionals can gain valuable insights into harnessing the power of AI to optimize their test automation workflows within the UiPath ecosystem, ultimately driving efficiency and quality in software development processes.
What will you get from this session?
1. Insights into integrating generative AI.
2. Understanding how this integration enhances test automation within the UiPath platform
3. Practical demonstrations
4. Exploration of real-world use cases illustrating the benefits of AI-driven test automation for UiPath
Topics covered:
What is generative AI
Test Automation with generative AI and Open AI.
UiPath integration with generative AI
Speaker:
Deepak Rai, Automation Practice Lead, Boundaryless Group and UiPath MVP
TrustArc Webinar - 2024 Global Privacy SurveyTrustArc
How does your privacy program stack up against your peers? What challenges are privacy teams tackling and prioritizing in 2024?
In the fifth annual Global Privacy Benchmarks Survey, we asked over 1,800 global privacy professionals and business executives to share their perspectives on the current state of privacy inside and outside of their organizations. This year’s report focused on emerging areas of importance for privacy and compliance professionals, including considerations and implications of Artificial Intelligence (AI) technologies, building brand trust, and different approaches for achieving higher privacy competence scores.
See how organizational priorities and strategic approaches to data security and privacy are evolving around the globe.
This webinar will review:
- The top 10 privacy insights from the fifth annual Global Privacy Benchmarks Survey
- The top challenges for privacy leaders, practitioners, and organizations in 2024
- Key themes to consider in developing and maintaining your privacy program
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AI-Powered Food Delivery Transforming App Development in Saudi Arabia.pdfTechgropse Pvt.Ltd.
In this blog post, we'll delve into the intersection of AI and app development in Saudi Arabia, focusing on the food delivery sector. We'll explore how AI is revolutionizing the way Saudi consumers order food, how restaurants manage their operations, and how delivery partners navigate the bustling streets of cities like Riyadh, Jeddah, and Dammam. Through real-world case studies, we'll showcase how leading Saudi food delivery apps are leveraging AI to redefine convenience, personalization, and efficiency.
1. 1.0 INTRODUCTION
This chapter discuss about background of study, statement of problem, purpose, objective and
significance of the study.
1.1 BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY
This section will present detailed explanation of National Inflation Rate for Indonesia.
Inflation is the rate to measuring increase of goods price. There are certain processes to calculate
the Inflation in economic like we calculate GDP. So Inflation rate is important for the
government, academician, consumer also businessman to know economy situation for the
country. The rational why I am choose this topic is to open our mind and to know about our
neighbour economy. Then, with reference that I have in QMT 463 I can forecast one step ahead
with suitable models.
1.2 STATEMENT OF PROBLEM
The main problem in this case, is to choose the best fitted models to generate the forecast for
National Inflation Rate in Indonesia. By this guide it easy for me and other forecaster or
researcher to do this task.
1
2. There are 10 stages in forecasting procedure that I must follow to complete this task.
i. Determine the purpose and objective of the forecasting exercise.
ii. Selection of relevant theory
iii. Collection data
iv. Getting to know your data
v. Initial model estimation
vi. Model evaluation and revision
vii. Initial forecast presentation
viii. Final revision
ix. Forecast distribution
x. Establish monitoring system
1.3 PURPOSE OF STUDY
The purpose of this assignment is to identify, choose, calculate the best fitted model for the set
data that I have. This study also explains the related graph which can explain the National
Inflation Rate in Indonesia.
1.4 OBJECTIVES OF STUDY
The objectives of this study are:
1.4.1 To study about National Inflation Rate of Indonesia.
1.4.2 To measure the one step ahead forecast with suitable model.
1.4.3 To analyze the data set and discuss on the component of time series (graph) that related to
the data set.
1.4.4 To search best fit model for the set data that I have.
2
4. 1.5 SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY
The study of will present detailed explanation of National Inflation Rate for Indonesia.
Inflation is the rate to measuring increase of goods price. There are certain processes to calculate
the Inflation in economic like we calculate GDP. So Inflation rate is important for the
government, academician, consumer also businessman to know economy situation for the
country. The Government, academician, consumer also businessman can use this information to
the industry and society to increase the level of awareness of economy.
4
5. 2.0 METHODOLOGY
This chapter describes the methodology used to carry out the study on the benefit of eggshell
technology in industries. Only secondary research was used to get the data for the study. One set
data of National Inflation rate in Indonesia obtain through internet research will used as source of
information. The data was synthesized and summarized for the report, no primary research was
done, no interviews were conducted, no questionnaire will distribute and no observations will
make. These are the limitations of the study.
5
6. 3.0 FINDINGS AND DISCUSSIONS
I have search through the internet to get the data set which has 36 month data. This data set I get
from Indonesia Statistic Ministry Web. This data set is called External Data because obtained
outside the normal operational activities of the firms and are beyond the management’s control.
When data obtained from secondary sources they are known as “Secondary Data”. The data set
can be seen in Figure1 and Table1.
From the data set that I have, in this task, I must use five models and then choose the best fitted
model.
i. Naïve Model
ii. Simple exponential smoothing Model
iii. Decomposition Method
iv. ARRES Method
v. Holt-Winters
6
7. Figure1 (National Inflation of Indonesia Graph)
National Inflation of Indonesia
2.50
2.00
1.50
Inflation
1.00
0.50
0.00
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35
-0.50
Month
Inflation
The graph in Figure1 shows that the National Inflation of Indonesia from January 2002 to
December 2004. The highest rate in January 2002 and the lowest data in March 2003. The trend
for the graph is decrease.
The table1 in the next page shows that all data set that I get obtain through internet. This data set
about the National Inflation Rate of Indonesia.
7
9. 3.1 NAIVE MODEL
Naïve with Trend Model
The application of this model is fairly common among organizations. One reason for its
popularity is that can be used even with fairly short time series. Thus, overcoming the common
problem in most organizations where insufficient data is a common phenomenon. Insufficient
data would prohibit the application of sophisticated modeling technique.
The one step ahead forecast is represented as, Ft+1 = yt (yt/ yt-1) where yt is the actual value at time
t, and yt-1 is the actual value in preceding period. This model implies that all future forecast can
be set to the equal the actual observed value in the most recent time period plus the growth rate
that is the trend value as measured by yt/ yt-1. Hence, if yt is greater than yt-1 then the trend is
upward and conversely if yt is less than yt-1 then trend is downward.
This model is highly sensitive to the change in the actual value. As such a sudden drop or sharp
increase in the value will severely affect the forecast. Furthermore, fitting this model type will
result in the loss of the first two observations in the series. On the other hand,this model can also
be used for short time series.
Fitting The Naïve With Trend Model With Excel
Table2 in the next page shows that how I am fitting Naïve with Trend Model with using Excel.
Firstly set the data like Table1. Then, make the column name fitted and type (D3*D3)/D2 in the
3rd row. Then drag the box until one step ahead. Then, calculate its MSE to compare with other
model. The forecast value that I get for January 2005 is 1.22 .The MSE show that 24.23 and
the value of MAPE is 8.92 .
9
12. 3.2 SIMPLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING MODEL
Some people call this model Single Exponential Smoothing Technique. But one thing is sure, it
is the simplest form of model within the family of the exponential smoothing technique. The
model requires only one parameter, that is the smoothing constant α to generate the fitted values
and hence forecast.
The advantage of this procedure is that it takes into account the most recent forecast. In Simple
Exponential Smoothing Model, the forecast for the next and all subsequent periods are
determined by adjusting the current period forecast by apportion of the difference between the
current forecast and current actual value. This is described in term of minimum errors.
Hence, if the recent forecast proves to be accurate, then it seems reasonable to base the
subsequent forecast on these estimates. Likewise, if recent predictions have been subjected to
large errors, then new forecast will also take this into consideration.
Another advantage of this technique is that it is requires the retention of only a limited amount
the data. There is no need to store data for many periods, because the historical profile is
recorded in concise form in the current smoothed statistic.
Ft+m = α yt + (1-α)Ft
The main thing in simple exponential smoothing is to choose best value of α. The first procedure
relies heavily not only on ones personal knowledge about the problem being evaluated and but
also on the amount of past experience one has with regard to the variable involved. For instance,
if one’s experience leads one to believe that past values can still contribute significantly the
necessary information needed to generate the forecast values, the small value of α is assigned.
Conversely, large value of α is used when one believes that only the most recent information are
important to generate the forecast value.
12
13. The second procedure that require the application of certain measurement criterion that can be
used to determined the best value of α. This is called “error measurement”. Some people called it
Mean Square Error (MSE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Percent Error
(MAPE). The main purpose of this procedure is to generate a set fitted values associated with
each value. This is with objective of choosing the alpha value such that when it applied to the
model it minimizes the error. More specifically, it is to search far an alpha that result I the
smallest error measurement.
Fitting The Exponential Using Excel
Firstly key in the data like Table3. Then, in the fitted column write the equation =(E3*C2)+((1-
E3)*D2) to get the fitted value. Then ,drag the box to get fitted data. From the Table3, forecast of
the January 2005 one step ahead is 1.22 . After that, calculate error, MSE and MAPE to compare
with other model.
13
16. 3.3 DECOMPOSITION METHOD
The process of generating the forecast values using this methodology is basically the reverse of
the process of decomposing the components. What is done here is to integrate the individual
components that have been identified and isolated earlier using past data points in the forecast
periods. This is made on the basis of either one assumptions used when the data were initially
analyze. For instance, if these components are assumed to be related in multiplicative manner,
such that y = T.S.C.I , then the forecast is simply the product of these components. Similarly, if
the assumption takes the additive form, y = T+S+C+I.
It should be note that the application of the decomposition method is basically made on a very
important assumption. It is assumed that the patterns or characteristics of the data as exhibited in
the past will be repeated in the future. Even if there is any change, it is not expected to seriously
affect the future estimates.
To make the job more easier in decomposition method, I have use a simple linear trend for this
purpose which can easily be extrapolated by using excel.
Where
T = α + βt
16
17. Figure2 (Linear Trend for National Inflation in Indonesia)
Inflation and Trend
2.50
2.00
1.50
Inflation
1.00
0.50
0.00
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35
-0.50
Month
y = -0.0071x + 0.7099
R2 = 0.0202 Inflation Linear (Inflation)
From the graph in figure2, we can see downward trend over 36 month period from January 2002
to December 2004. Based on adjusted seasonal indices, it is determined that the highest rate of
inflation in Indonesia is November. The highest being the month of November, recording an
index of 219.32 percent. The lowest rate is in March as evident with lowest index with 9.59
percent.
Y = -0.0071x + 0.0799
From the estimated linear equation, it ca be conclude that over the period time the National
Inflation Rate of Indonesia have been increase at average monthly rate of 0.0799.
17
21. Inflation,Deseasonalised data and Linear Trend
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
Inflation
-0.50 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35
-1.00
Figure3 (Inflation, Deseasonalized Data and Linear Trend)
-1.50 Inflation
-2.00 Linear Trend
-2.50
Deseasonalised Data
Month
21
22. 3.4 ADDAPTIVE RESPONSE RATE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING (ARRES)
ARRES is different from other exponential method. It is because, other exponential method
discussed that, the value of parameter alpha used assumed constant for all time periods.
However, over time events may take place that affect the subsequent data behaviour. Some of
these events have been described earlier. For example, people may change their desire to buy a
certain product or there is change in the level of output as a result of technology change.
In these situation, to maintain the same value for alpha for all time periods may not be realistic
decision. Thus, the development of ARRES is an attempt to overcome this problem by
incorporating the effect of the changing pattern of the data series.
Ft+1 = αt yt + (1-αt) Ft
This indicates that the value of alpha is only appropriate at a particular period t, and maybe
different at different value of t.
As in any exponential smoothing technique, the appropriate initial values are required to start the
algorithm. In this case, value are for F0, α0, E0 and AET0.
Fitting ARRES With Excel
Firstly set up the data in the Table6,the make assumption alpha and beta with certain number
between 1 and 0. then in the fitted column write the equation =$H$2*C2+(1-$H$2)*C2 then drag
the box to the down. After that, calculate the MSE and retest the alpha and beta which have
smallest MSE.
22
25. 3.5 HOLT-WINTER’S METHOD
All earlier exponential models are good as long as they deal with non seasonal data. When
seasonality exists, a more suitable model is needed. Holt-Winters is one such technique that takes
into account the trend and seasonality factors.
Fitting Holt-Winters Using Excel
Holt-Winters consist of three basic equation that define the level component, the trend
component and the seasonality component. Two assumption can be made with regard to the
relationship of these component.
Level Component
Lt = α ( yt / st-s ) + ( 1-α ) ( Lt-1 + bt-1 )
Trend Component
bt = β ( Lt Lt-1 ) + ( 1-β ) bt-1
Seasonal Component
St = γ (yt / Lt ) + (1-γ) St-s
The forecast
Ft+m = (Lt + bt * m) St-s+m
As usual, when fitting the model, some initial value are required. For ease of computation, some
simple technique will discuss here.
Determine the Initial Value
To determine the initial value, a simple procedure used to take the average of the first 12 quarters
(month).
25
26. b0 = 1/s ( (ys+1 – y1 ) / s) + (ys+2 – y1 ) / s2) + ......
where s = 12 (represent the number of month in year)
The initial value of the seasonal component of the first 12 month are calculated by using the ratio
of the actual values to the mean of the first 12 values as represent by Lo in which
St = Yt / Lt
26
29. 4.0 CONCLUSSION
1. Where you need to find the initial value of the models that you have used. Why was
the method ?
Determine the Initial Value
To determine the initial value, a simple procedure used to take the average of the first 12 quarters
(month).
b0 = 1/s ( (ys+1 – y1 ) / s) + (ys+2 – y1 ) / s2) + ......
where s = 12 (represent the number of month in year)
The initial value of the seasonal component of the first 12 month are calculated by using the ratio
of the actual values to the mean of the first 12 values as represent by Lo in which
St = Yt / Lt
2. You are to find the best fitted model. In the other words to find the best parameter
value.
The smallest MSE among the model is ARRES which its MSE = 0.27 . So, the best parameter
value among the model that I have used is ARRES.
But the smallest MAPE that I have is NAÏVE model which is MAPE = 8.92 . But the main
disadvantage of this measure lies in its relevancy as it is valid only for ratio scale data ( data with
meaning full zero ) . For this reason , MAPE is potentially explosive for large forecast error
when the actual value observation close to the zero. In addition, percentage measure do not treat
errors of overestimate and underestimate.
29
30. 3. Present the result of your analysis. Which of the model do you think would perfom
the best forecast?
MODEL Naïve with Trend Single Exponential ARRES Method Holt Winters
α=0.9 α=0.9 α=0.9
β=0.1 β=0.1
γ=0.0
MSE 24.23 0.29 0.27 2.71
Forecast 1.22 1.02 1.04 1.86
From the table above, we can see the lowest MSE is 0.27 which is ARRES Method with α=0.9,
β=0.1 . So I choose ARRES Method as the best model in this task.
ARRES is different from other exponential method. It is because, other exponential method
discussed that, the value of parameter alpha used assumed constant for all time periods.
However, over time events may take place that affect the subsequent data behaviour. Some of
these events have been described earlier. For example, people may change their desire to buy a
certain product or there is change in the level of output as a result of technology change.
In this case, Inflation rate maybe change in certain time period because Income factor, GDP, cost
of production, price elasticity and other related factor.
In these situation, to maintain the same value for alpha for all time periods may not be realistic
decision. Thus, the development of ARRES is an attempt to overcome this problem by
incorporating the effect of the changing pattern of the data series.
30