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Food System Dynamics in Africa: Anticipating and Adapting to Change

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Food System Dynamics in Africa: Anticipating and Adapting to Change

  1. 1. Food System Dynamics in Africa: Anticipating and Adapting to Change David Tschirley with colleagues in the MAFS and ABCC Consortia Paper presented at the 6th FARA Science Week 15-19 July, 2013 Accra, Ghana
  2. 2. Institutions Involved in MAFS and ABCC
  3. 3. Modernizing African Food Systems (MAFS) team members: Richard Mkandawire, Nelson Ojijo, Tom Anyonge Mwangi, Aissetou Yaye, Moses Osiru, Bernard Bashaasha, John David Kabasa, Johnny Mugisha, Anthony Mugisha, Francis Ejobi, Johann Kirsten, Sheryl Hendriks, Casper Madakadze, Ferdi Meyer, Lulama Traub, John Kaneene, David Tschirley, Steve Haggblade, Duncan Boughton Africa’s Bending the Curve Consortium (ABCC) members: John Taylor, John David Kabasa (MU), Steven Haggblade (MSU), Nelson Ojijo (FARA), Elna Buys (UP), Francis Ejobi (MU), Riette de Kock (UP), Amanda Minnaar (UP), Hettie Schonfeldt (UP, John Kaneene (MSU), David Tschirley (MSU), Duncan Boughton (MSU) MAFS and ABCC Members
  4. 4. Outline • Drivers of Change in the African Food Systems • Resulting changes in food consumption patterns • Implications for skill requirements in the public and private sector • Implications for productivity, human health and nutrition • Anticipating and adapting to change • Conclusion
  5. 5. Drivers of Change in the African Food Systems Urban, rural and total population Key drivers • Rapid urban population growth rates • Income growth • Climate change • Globalization
  6. 6. Resulting changes in food consumption patterns Urbanization (3%) + income growth (2%)  Rapidly growing food markets  Changing composition of demand + meat + dairy + fresh produce + processed foods
  7. 7. Projected consumption increases, 2010-2050 ( Africa’s maize belt; by processing level) Processing level Per capita Total ----- percent increase ------ Own production - 7% + 80% Unprocessed + 108% + 300% Informally processed - 34% + 30% Formal 1 + 126% + 330% Formal 2 (most processed) + 184% + 440%
  8. 8. Projected consumption increases, 2010-2050 ( Africa’s maize belt; by commodity type) Processing level Per capita Total ----- percent increase ------ Plantains + 6% + 100% Cassava + 9% + 110% Fish + 29% + 150% … Poultry + 58% + 200% Beef + 66% + 220% Milk & animal fats + 72% + 230% Prepared food away from home + 72% + 230%
  9. 9. Sources of Growth in African Food Systems
  10. 10. Implications for Skill Requirements in the Public and Private Sector and Shifting Focus on Employment
  11. 11. Implications for Skill Requirements • More post-farm skills (a) • More private sector engagement (b) • AET to adjust to this new post-farm, private sector dominance – Change in curricula – Farm and industrial attachment / internships for students Need for practical, applied knowledge
  12. 12. Hand to Industrial Processing
  13. 13. More Advanced Skills Needed in Packaging
  14. 14. Changing Skills in Marketing
  15. 15. Changing Skills in Food Safety, Nutrition and Regulation
  16. 16. Preparing students for Industrial Food Processing Above: Frida, an iAGRI sponsored student in MSU food science lab
  17. 17. Implications for Productivity Africa Food Staple Zones What Do These Zones Mean? • Staple consumption varies across zones • Need to project consumption (model) these across time • Contribute to understanding productivity levels necessary to meet consumption requirements and match skill requirements
  18. 18. Implications to Human Health and Nutrition
  19. 19. Rapid Urban Population Associated with High Consumption of Starch, Sugar, Fat-Based Foods
  20. 20. High Starch, Sugar, Fat-based Consequences
  21. 21. Rapid Urban Population Growth Associated Consuming Low Micro-Nutrient Foods and Vitamins
  22. 22. Consequences of Low Consumption of Micro-nutrients and Vitamins
  23. 23. Anticipating and Adapting to Change • Africa must learn from the mistakes of other developing countries in managing the food systems and adjust • MAFS to focus on supply side of Africa food marketsassisted by the Advisory Board • ABCC to focus on the consumer transition associated with food systems transition
  24. 24. Conclusions (1) • Urbanization & income growth – Key drivers of change in the African food systems the next 40 years • More food will be required • Different food will be required – More processed – More perishable – Better packaged – More ready to eat – Higher quality & safety standards
  25. 25. Conclusions (2) • The new food characteristics will require three responses: – African AET institutions will need to produce a different kind of graduate • More technical skills • More applied knowledge • More problem-solving skills – Diets will be too high in energy, fat, and sugar • obesity, heart disease and diabetes!! – Many processed foods will have fewer vitamins, minerals and micronutrients • serious nutrition and public health concerns
  26. 26. Conclusions (3) • All these will require – Collaborative private & public sector intervention – Focused on key education, action research and knowledge dissemination areas • MAFS and ABCC intend to be among those informing these interventions
  27. 27. THANK YOU FOR LISTENING

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