SlideShare a Scribd company logo
the king is dead, long live the king
the once and future state of venture capital

                                                    david aronoff
                                                  general partner
                                        flybridge capital partners
                                            david@flybridge.com



               1 Flybridge Capital Partners 2010
agenda

•    the VC model needs an upgrade
•    clues from history
•    implications for entrepreneurs
•    semi-random thoughts




                     2 Flybridge Capital Partners 2010
some facts

•  1972 to 2007, ~2500 VC-backed IPOs in US
  –  13% of all public firms at end of 2008.
  –  8% of market capitalization ($2.0 trillion)
  –  6% of total employees.
      •  Particularly true in high-technology industries.
•  VC appears ~3 to 4x more powerful than corp R&D
  –  From late 70s to mid-90s, VC was only 3% of corporate
     R&D, but responsible for ~10%-12% of privately funded
     innovations.


    source: Lerner

                            3 Flybridge Capital Partners 2010
the way it was
           •  basic premise:
                     an overabundance of great ideas
                   + an undersupply of capital
                   = only “best” ideas get funded


           •  a sector supports 4-5 players
                   –  1 is a home run
                   –  2-3 are “ok” outcomes
                   –  1-2 holes in the ground


           •  “healthy” industry loss ratios

           •  LPs can afford to remain patient
4 Flybridge Capital Partners 2010
the way it is
                                                 •  situation:
                                                          an overabundance of similar ideas
                                                        + an oversupply of capital
                                                        = nearly every good idea got funded


                                                 •  sectors have 10+ combatants
                                                        –  0-1 is a triple. 0-3 are “ok”
                                                        –  6-10 holes in the ground


                                                 •  vc loss ratios go through the roof
© Robert Mankoff, New Yorker
with thanks to Prof Bill Sahlman, HBS
                                                 •  LP patience waning b/c returns
                                                    suffer & great recession impact
                                        5 Flybridge Capital Partners 2010
the dream exposed




6 Flybridge Capital Partners 2010
time for an upgrade
                  US Venture Capital Returns: Inception to 3/31/08




Source: Venture Economics, Prof. Paul Gompers HBS                      n=1927




                                   7 Flybridge Capital Partners 2010
product refresh underway

                  Less Capital Being Committed                                                                            Fewer Professionals Investing

                          US VC Fund Raising and Funds Closed                                                                              Venture Professionals
                                 653                                                                             10,000
                   $120                                                                  700
                                                                                                                  9,000
                   $100                                                                  600                      8,000




                                                                                               VC Funds Closed
                          451
  $B USD Raised




                                 $105                                                    500                      7,000
                    $80                                                                                           6,000
                                          321                                            400                      5,000
                    $60    $55
                                                                239 241 251              300                      4,000
                                              206         211                 221
                    $40                 $39                                                                       3,000
                                                    163                                  200
                                                                $29 $32 $36                                       2,000
                                                          $19                 $28 70
                    $20                                                                  100                      1,000
                                              $9 $12
                    $-                                                              $6   0                            0
                                                                                                                          1980      1987       1988       1997      1998       2007       2008      2009E



                                                                                                                                 Includes: General Partners, Managing General Partners, Venture Partners
                                                Dollars            Firms




Source: NVCA
                                                                                    8 Flybridge Capital Partners 2010
we’ve seen this movie before

                                                                     PEAK
                                           Accelerating               1999/00
                                                                       1983
                                                                                             Free Fall
                                               1997-99                 1969                    2000-2002
                                               1981-83                                          1983-85
                                               1967-69                                          1969-71



    Vintage Year IRR
    Top Quartile
                                                                      10%
    Median                                                              2%


                                                                      26%
                                                                        12%

                                             Firming                                     Bottoming
                                               2009-?                                          2003-08
                                                                       2009
                                               1991-96                1990/91                  1986-90
                                               1975-80                 1974                    1971-74

                                                                   TROUGH


                                   investing through the trough offers strong opportunities
Source: Brooks Zug, Harbourvest Partners
                                                         9 Flybridge Capital Partners 2010
so …

•  clearly VC has been very important driver of
   innovation and wealth creation
•  but:
  –  low returns for past decade
  –  tremendous randomness in exit markets
  –  far too many companies funded
  –  calculus of funds doesn’t solve
  –  embroiled in secular & cyclical trough
•  has become at best a short-tail phenomenon
   and at worst a random-walk.
                   10 Flybridge Capital Partners 2010
what happens next
•  the number of VCs must shrink
  –  NVCA estimated 10% in 2009, 15% more in 2010
  –  PCG predicts 1500 firms to 500 within 5 to 7 years
•  accordingly, amount of money and number of
   limited partner investors will decrease
•  this won’t happen overnight
  –  VC partnerships are 10-12 years in duration, and
     they’ll drag out last fund in hope of hail maries
•  trickle down impact
  –  fewer numbers of startups will get funded
  –  smaller financings due to decreased VC fund sizes
                    11 Flybridge Capital Partners 2010
set the wayback machine




12 Flybridge Capital Partners 2010
that 70’s show

•  VC circa 1970’s
   –  take the good
      •  small funds (in dollars & professionals)
      •  generalists wrt industry focus / versatile
      •  collegial approach / lots of syndication
           –  size of funds & firms -> so smaller financings
           –  longer horizons until liquidity
   –  ignore the irrelevant
      •  bootstrapped companies - no startups (mid/late 80’s phenom)
   –  adapt the model to the current environment


•  Much of this is happening organically already
                        13 Flybridge Capital Partners 2010
implications for entrepreneurs
               what the new model means:
•  focus on capital efficiency until inflection point
   –  garage: bootstrap model – over longer period, CFBE
   –  seed-like: quicker time to lift-off (or crash) on short $$
   –  supersized first rounds: will be harder to come by
•  concentration on new areas w/huge potential SoM
   –  new media, energy-technology, revolutions
   –  fewer me-toos (salami model)
•  financing models morph
   –  angels /seed funds /VC get along because they have to
   –  full-funded staged approach?
                       14 Flybridge Capital Partners 2010
implications for entrepreneurs
          what the new model doesn’t mean:

•  venture investors won't invest in early-stage ideas
   –  it’s the charter of our fund and most others
•  investors only look for epic returns (10/100x)
   –  my crystal ball is really no good
•  VCs are replacing angel investors
   –  but we’re actively making seed investments
•  bellbottoms are back in style
   –  did they ever really go out?


                       15 Flybridge Capital Partners 2010
semi-random thoughts #1

•  VC performance is highly persistent
   –  good continue to do well, but so do poor performers!
         •  this is true for entrepreneurs and investors


•  deal sourcing is key factor
   –  successful entrepreneurs have returns that are 50%
      greater than first timers or those who failed last time
         •  success more likely for first timers than those who failed last time
   –  50% of the outperformance of top fund is due to higher
      concentration of serial entrepreneurs
         •  VC value-added is greatest with first timers

  source: Gompers, Lerner, Sahlman
                                     16 Flybridge Capital Partners 2010
semi-random thoughts #2

•  funding/opportunity size ratio
   –  not all big opportunities require big financings, at least
      at first, sometimes at all
   –  but some types of investments require huge rounds
      early on; don’t know if they’re good bets, just know I
      won’t place them
•  being first matters a lot
   –  the tao of glen garry glen ross

•  mike maples’ “thunder lizards”
•  “gap” vs “gretzky”
                      17 Flybridge Capital Partners 2010
semi-random thoughts #3

•  home-run mentality
   –  Are VCs bound to the home-run model or should they be more
      focused on OBP?
   –  I suggest that both the home-run and OBP models don’t work,
      but a hybrid of both is warranted (shameless self-promotion)




                        18 Flybridge Capital Partners 2010
discussion




19 Flybridge Capital Partners 2010

More Related Content

What's hot

Apresentacao ideiasnet english_20070823v1
Apresentacao ideiasnet english_20070823v1Apresentacao ideiasnet english_20070823v1
Apresentacao ideiasnet english_20070823v1ideiasnet
 
Claude Resources Inc. PDAC 2013 Presentation
Claude Resources Inc. PDAC 2013 PresentationClaude Resources Inc. PDAC 2013 Presentation
Claude Resources Inc. PDAC 2013 PresentationClaude Resources Inc.
 
Trends Affecting Today's Investor - Chris McDermott
Trends Affecting Today's Investor - Chris McDermottTrends Affecting Today's Investor - Chris McDermott
Trends Affecting Today's Investor - Chris McDermottPhilip Taylor
 
China's Entrepreneurship Ecosystem
China's Entrepreneurship EcosystemChina's Entrepreneurship Ecosystem
China's Entrepreneurship Ecosystem
ZhenFund
 
Ai August 5 2005
Ai   August 5 2005Ai   August 5 2005
Ai August 5 2005
pburley
 
pulte homes 91DC7C77-0015-45F1-A981-8387FF35D0E1_phm_InvestorPresentation200812
pulte homes 91DC7C77-0015-45F1-A981-8387FF35D0E1_phm_InvestorPresentation200812pulte homes 91DC7C77-0015-45F1-A981-8387FF35D0E1_phm_InvestorPresentation200812
pulte homes 91DC7C77-0015-45F1-A981-8387FF35D0E1_phm_InvestorPresentation200812finance42
 
regions Citigroup Napa_20080521
regions Citigroup Napa_20080521regions Citigroup Napa_20080521
regions Citigroup Napa_20080521finance25
 
2012 National Governors Association Growing State Economies Summit
2012 National Governors Association Growing State Economies Summit2012 National Governors Association Growing State Economies Summit
2012 National Governors Association Growing State Economies Summit
Jack Brittain
 
Duratex - 3rd Quarter 2007
Duratex - 3rd Quarter 2007Duratex - 3rd Quarter 2007
Duratex - 3rd Quarter 2007
Duratex
 
kohl's annual reports 2006
kohl's annual reports 2006kohl's annual reports 2006
kohl's annual reports 2006finance16
 
Feed me investors presentation final
Feed me investors presentation finalFeed me investors presentation final
Feed me investors presentation finalStian Larsen
 
AKT Construction: New day new strategy June 2, 2011 FMI presentation
AKT Construction: New day new strategy June 2, 2011 FMI presentationAKT Construction: New day new strategy June 2, 2011 FMI presentation
AKT Construction: New day new strategy June 2, 2011 FMI presentationpeggykitzmiller
 
M&A Trends, Valuation and Financial Preparation for an M&A Deal
M&A Trends, Valuation and Financial Preparation for an M&A DealM&A Trends, Valuation and Financial Preparation for an M&A Deal
M&A Trends, Valuation and Financial Preparation for an M&A DealWhitmeyerTuffin
 
Aba april 5 pitch_book_adley_exits deck
Aba april 5 pitch_book_adley_exits deckAba april 5 pitch_book_adley_exits deck
Aba april 5 pitch_book_adley_exits deckAdley Bowden
 
SLM CSPresentationFebruary42009Final
SLM  CSPresentationFebruary42009FinalSLM  CSPresentationFebruary42009Final
SLM CSPresentationFebruary42009Finalfinance42
 
College America 529 Plan
College America 529 PlanCollege America 529 Plan
College America 529 Plan
Bobby Cherry
 

What's hot (19)

Apresentacao ideiasnet english_20070823v1
Apresentacao ideiasnet english_20070823v1Apresentacao ideiasnet english_20070823v1
Apresentacao ideiasnet english_20070823v1
 
Claude Resources Inc. PDAC 2013 Presentation
Claude Resources Inc. PDAC 2013 PresentationClaude Resources Inc. PDAC 2013 Presentation
Claude Resources Inc. PDAC 2013 Presentation
 
Trends Affecting Today's Investor - Chris McDermott
Trends Affecting Today's Investor - Chris McDermottTrends Affecting Today's Investor - Chris McDermott
Trends Affecting Today's Investor - Chris McDermott
 
China's Entrepreneurship Ecosystem
China's Entrepreneurship EcosystemChina's Entrepreneurship Ecosystem
China's Entrepreneurship Ecosystem
 
63878
6387863878
63878
 
Ai August 5 2005
Ai   August 5 2005Ai   August 5 2005
Ai August 5 2005
 
pulte homes 91DC7C77-0015-45F1-A981-8387FF35D0E1_phm_InvestorPresentation200812
pulte homes 91DC7C77-0015-45F1-A981-8387FF35D0E1_phm_InvestorPresentation200812pulte homes 91DC7C77-0015-45F1-A981-8387FF35D0E1_phm_InvestorPresentation200812
pulte homes 91DC7C77-0015-45F1-A981-8387FF35D0E1_phm_InvestorPresentation200812
 
regions Citigroup Napa_20080521
regions Citigroup Napa_20080521regions Citigroup Napa_20080521
regions Citigroup Napa_20080521
 
2012 National Governors Association Growing State Economies Summit
2012 National Governors Association Growing State Economies Summit2012 National Governors Association Growing State Economies Summit
2012 National Governors Association Growing State Economies Summit
 
Duratex - 3rd Quarter 2007
Duratex - 3rd Quarter 2007Duratex - 3rd Quarter 2007
Duratex - 3rd Quarter 2007
 
Rethink The Way You Invest
Rethink The Way You InvestRethink The Way You Invest
Rethink The Way You Invest
 
kohl's annual reports 2006
kohl's annual reports 2006kohl's annual reports 2006
kohl's annual reports 2006
 
Feed me investors presentation final
Feed me investors presentation finalFeed me investors presentation final
Feed me investors presentation final
 
AKT Construction: New day new strategy June 2, 2011 FMI presentation
AKT Construction: New day new strategy June 2, 2011 FMI presentationAKT Construction: New day new strategy June 2, 2011 FMI presentation
AKT Construction: New day new strategy June 2, 2011 FMI presentation
 
M&A Trends, Valuation and Financial Preparation for an M&A Deal
M&A Trends, Valuation and Financial Preparation for an M&A DealM&A Trends, Valuation and Financial Preparation for an M&A Deal
M&A Trends, Valuation and Financial Preparation for an M&A Deal
 
Jiahua million afrikaans
Jiahua million afrikaansJiahua million afrikaans
Jiahua million afrikaans
 
Aba april 5 pitch_book_adley_exits deck
Aba april 5 pitch_book_adley_exits deckAba april 5 pitch_book_adley_exits deck
Aba april 5 pitch_book_adley_exits deck
 
SLM CSPresentationFebruary42009Final
SLM  CSPresentationFebruary42009FinalSLM  CSPresentationFebruary42009Final
SLM CSPresentationFebruary42009Final
 
College America 529 Plan
College America 529 PlanCollege America 529 Plan
College America 529 Plan
 

Viewers also liked

D aronoff 9nov11 rise of dynamic computing
D aronoff 9nov11  rise of dynamic computingD aronoff 9nov11  rise of dynamic computing
D aronoff 9nov11 rise of dynamic computing
David Aronoff
 
De Koude Oorlog En De Postcommunistische Wereldorde
De Koude Oorlog En De Postcommunistische WereldordeDe Koude Oorlog En De Postcommunistische Wereldorde
De Koude Oorlog En De Postcommunistische Wereldordeguest3e6e10
 
NYC is the next Venture Capitol presentation 3 14
NYC is the next Venture Capitol presentation 3 14NYC is the next Venture Capitol presentation 3 14
NYC is the next Venture Capitol presentation 3 14
David Aronoff
 
One Oasis Condominium
One Oasis CondominiumOne Oasis Condominium
One Oasis Condominium
thelly
 
MySQL: From Single Instance to Big Data
MySQL: From Single Instance to Big DataMySQL: From Single Instance to Big Data
MySQL: From Single Instance to Big Data
Morgan Tocker
 
Thanks
ThanksThanks
Thanks
guest4b4e04
 
Mysql 57-upcoming-changes
Mysql 57-upcoming-changesMysql 57-upcoming-changes
Mysql 57-upcoming-changesMorgan Tocker
 
MySQL Query Optimization
MySQL Query OptimizationMySQL Query Optimization
MySQL Query Optimization
Morgan Tocker
 
I Ct De Overheid En Bestuur
I Ct De Overheid En BestuurI Ct De Overheid En Bestuur
I Ct De Overheid En Bestuurguest3e6e10
 
Hci Map2
Hci Map2Hci Map2
Hci Map2
shaeful
 
MySQL 5.6 - Operations and Diagnostics Improvements
MySQL 5.6 - Operations and Diagnostics ImprovementsMySQL 5.6 - Operations and Diagnostics Improvements
MySQL 5.6 - Operations and Diagnostics ImprovementsMorgan Tocker
 
MySQL 5.7: Core Server Changes
MySQL 5.7: Core Server ChangesMySQL 5.7: Core Server Changes
MySQL 5.7: Core Server ChangesMorgan Tocker
 
Optimizing MySQL
Optimizing MySQLOptimizing MySQL
Optimizing MySQL
Morgan Tocker
 
MySQL Performance Metrics that Matter
MySQL Performance Metrics that MatterMySQL Performance Metrics that Matter
MySQL Performance Metrics that Matter
Morgan Tocker
 
MySQL For Linux Sysadmins
MySQL For Linux SysadminsMySQL For Linux Sysadmins
MySQL For Linux Sysadmins
Morgan Tocker
 
Expclinsegn
ExpclinsegnExpclinsegn
Expclinsegnbundioz
 
Locking and Concurrency Control
Locking and Concurrency ControlLocking and Concurrency Control
Locking and Concurrency ControlMorgan Tocker
 
The InnoDB Storage Engine for MySQL
The InnoDB Storage Engine for MySQLThe InnoDB Storage Engine for MySQL
The InnoDB Storage Engine for MySQLMorgan Tocker
 

Viewers also liked (19)

D aronoff 9nov11 rise of dynamic computing
D aronoff 9nov11  rise of dynamic computingD aronoff 9nov11  rise of dynamic computing
D aronoff 9nov11 rise of dynamic computing
 
De Koude Oorlog En De Postcommunistische Wereldorde
De Koude Oorlog En De Postcommunistische WereldordeDe Koude Oorlog En De Postcommunistische Wereldorde
De Koude Oorlog En De Postcommunistische Wereldorde
 
NYC is the next Venture Capitol presentation 3 14
NYC is the next Venture Capitol presentation 3 14NYC is the next Venture Capitol presentation 3 14
NYC is the next Venture Capitol presentation 3 14
 
One Oasis Condominium
One Oasis CondominiumOne Oasis Condominium
One Oasis Condominium
 
MySQL: From Single Instance to Big Data
MySQL: From Single Instance to Big DataMySQL: From Single Instance to Big Data
MySQL: From Single Instance to Big Data
 
Thanks
ThanksThanks
Thanks
 
Mysql 57-upcoming-changes
Mysql 57-upcoming-changesMysql 57-upcoming-changes
Mysql 57-upcoming-changes
 
MySQL Query Optimization
MySQL Query OptimizationMySQL Query Optimization
MySQL Query Optimization
 
I Ct De Overheid En Bestuur
I Ct De Overheid En BestuurI Ct De Overheid En Bestuur
I Ct De Overheid En Bestuur
 
Hci Map2
Hci Map2Hci Map2
Hci Map2
 
MySQL 5.6 - Operations and Diagnostics Improvements
MySQL 5.6 - Operations and Diagnostics ImprovementsMySQL 5.6 - Operations and Diagnostics Improvements
MySQL 5.6 - Operations and Diagnostics Improvements
 
MySQL 5.7: Core Server Changes
MySQL 5.7: Core Server ChangesMySQL 5.7: Core Server Changes
MySQL 5.7: Core Server Changes
 
MySQL NoSQL APIs
MySQL NoSQL APIsMySQL NoSQL APIs
MySQL NoSQL APIs
 
Optimizing MySQL
Optimizing MySQLOptimizing MySQL
Optimizing MySQL
 
MySQL Performance Metrics that Matter
MySQL Performance Metrics that MatterMySQL Performance Metrics that Matter
MySQL Performance Metrics that Matter
 
MySQL For Linux Sysadmins
MySQL For Linux SysadminsMySQL For Linux Sysadmins
MySQL For Linux Sysadmins
 
Expclinsegn
ExpclinsegnExpclinsegn
Expclinsegn
 
Locking and Concurrency Control
Locking and Concurrency ControlLocking and Concurrency Control
Locking and Concurrency Control
 
The InnoDB Storage Engine for MySQL
The InnoDB Storage Engine for MySQLThe InnoDB Storage Engine for MySQL
The InnoDB Storage Engine for MySQL
 

Similar to Flf final 26mar10 full version no video

Multifamily -mike kelly
Multifamily -mike kellyMultifamily -mike kelly
Multifamily -mike kellyguest381588
 
Distressed Multifamily Opportunities
Distressed Multifamily OpportunitiesDistressed Multifamily Opportunities
Distressed Multifamily Opportunities
Ryan Slack
 
Who wants to be a millionaire
Who wants to be a millionaireWho wants to be a millionaire
Who wants to be a millionairekrystals13
 
The Virtual Goods Ecosystem
The Virtual Goods EcosystemThe Virtual Goods Ecosystem
The Virtual Goods Ecosystem
Linda Gridley
 
Canada's VC Challenge - A statistical overview - August 2012
Canada's VC Challenge - A statistical overview - August 2012Canada's VC Challenge - A statistical overview - August 2012
Canada's VC Challenge - A statistical overview - August 2012heri
 
2012 a great time for start-ups
2012 a great time for start-ups2012 a great time for start-ups
2012 a great time for start-ups
matthewhyatt
 
Quigley Report: A Venture Capital Revival is Upon Us
Quigley Report: A Venture Capital Revival is Upon UsQuigley Report: A Venture Capital Revival is Upon Us
Quigley Report: A Venture Capital Revival is Upon Us
quigleyreport
 
Funding Resource
Funding ResourceFunding Resource
Funding Resource
valeriecason
 
2013 M&A Silicon Valley Gathering (MASiV)
2013 M&A Silicon Valley Gathering (MASiV)2013 M&A Silicon Valley Gathering (MASiV)
2013 M&A Silicon Valley Gathering (MASiV)
Tricia Salinero
 
Pdf version for flash drive torto_utah -august 14v1
Pdf version for flash drive  torto_utah -august 14v1Pdf version for flash drive  torto_utah -august 14v1
Pdf version for flash drive torto_utah -august 14v1
raymondtorto
 
Hughes Media Law Presents: Cascadia Capital - Venture Funding In Today's Market
Hughes Media Law Presents: Cascadia Capital - Venture Funding In Today's MarketHughes Media Law Presents: Cascadia Capital - Venture Funding In Today's Market
Hughes Media Law Presents: Cascadia Capital - Venture Funding In Today's Market
guest0855f4
 
Why You Should Invest In The Market Short
Why You Should Invest In The Market  ShortWhy You Should Invest In The Market  Short
Why You Should Invest In The Market Short
Lisa Brugman
 
Borrw Deck
Borrw DeckBorrw Deck
Borrw Deck
borrw
 
Yom hatzamut game
Yom hatzamut gameYom hatzamut game
Yom hatzamut game
hancsenate
 
Shark Tank
Shark TankShark Tank
Shark Tank
Virtual ULI
 
Whowantstobea millionaire
Whowantstobea millionaireWhowantstobea millionaire
Whowantstobea millionairehb0910bn
 
Whowantstobea millionaire
Whowantstobea millionaireWhowantstobea millionaire
Whowantstobea millionairemollyswabbs
 
The Best Plan You Never Heard of
The Best Plan You Never Heard ofThe Best Plan You Never Heard of
The Best Plan You Never Heard of
Bryan Daly
 

Similar to Flf final 26mar10 full version no video (20)

Multifamily -mike kelly
Multifamily -mike kellyMultifamily -mike kelly
Multifamily -mike kelly
 
Distressed Multifamily Opportunities
Distressed Multifamily OpportunitiesDistressed Multifamily Opportunities
Distressed Multifamily Opportunities
 
Who wants to be a millionaire
Who wants to be a millionaireWho wants to be a millionaire
Who wants to be a millionaire
 
The Virtual Goods Ecosystem
The Virtual Goods EcosystemThe Virtual Goods Ecosystem
The Virtual Goods Ecosystem
 
Canada's VC Challenge - A statistical overview - August 2012
Canada's VC Challenge - A statistical overview - August 2012Canada's VC Challenge - A statistical overview - August 2012
Canada's VC Challenge - A statistical overview - August 2012
 
2012 a great time for start-ups
2012 a great time for start-ups2012 a great time for start-ups
2012 a great time for start-ups
 
Quigley Report: A Venture Capital Revival is Upon Us
Quigley Report: A Venture Capital Revival is Upon UsQuigley Report: A Venture Capital Revival is Upon Us
Quigley Report: A Venture Capital Revival is Upon Us
 
Millionaire
MillionaireMillionaire
Millionaire
 
Funding Resource
Funding ResourceFunding Resource
Funding Resource
 
2013 M&A Silicon Valley Gathering (MASiV)
2013 M&A Silicon Valley Gathering (MASiV)2013 M&A Silicon Valley Gathering (MASiV)
2013 M&A Silicon Valley Gathering (MASiV)
 
Pdf version for flash drive torto_utah -august 14v1
Pdf version for flash drive  torto_utah -august 14v1Pdf version for flash drive  torto_utah -august 14v1
Pdf version for flash drive torto_utah -august 14v1
 
Millionaire 5è
Millionaire 5èMillionaire 5è
Millionaire 5è
 
Hughes Media Law Presents: Cascadia Capital - Venture Funding In Today's Market
Hughes Media Law Presents: Cascadia Capital - Venture Funding In Today's MarketHughes Media Law Presents: Cascadia Capital - Venture Funding In Today's Market
Hughes Media Law Presents: Cascadia Capital - Venture Funding In Today's Market
 
Why You Should Invest In The Market Short
Why You Should Invest In The Market  ShortWhy You Should Invest In The Market  Short
Why You Should Invest In The Market Short
 
Borrw Deck
Borrw DeckBorrw Deck
Borrw Deck
 
Yom hatzamut game
Yom hatzamut gameYom hatzamut game
Yom hatzamut game
 
Shark Tank
Shark TankShark Tank
Shark Tank
 
Whowantstobea millionaire
Whowantstobea millionaireWhowantstobea millionaire
Whowantstobea millionaire
 
Whowantstobea millionaire
Whowantstobea millionaireWhowantstobea millionaire
Whowantstobea millionaire
 
The Best Plan You Never Heard of
The Best Plan You Never Heard ofThe Best Plan You Never Heard of
The Best Plan You Never Heard of
 

Recently uploaded

how to sell pi coins on Binance exchange
how to sell pi coins on Binance exchangehow to sell pi coins on Binance exchange
how to sell pi coins on Binance exchange
DOT TECH
 
innovative-invoice-discounting-platforms-in-india-empowering-retail-investors...
innovative-invoice-discounting-platforms-in-india-empowering-retail-investors...innovative-invoice-discounting-platforms-in-india-empowering-retail-investors...
innovative-invoice-discounting-platforms-in-india-empowering-retail-investors...
Falcon Invoice Discounting
 
how to sell pi coins at high rate quickly.
how to sell pi coins at high rate quickly.how to sell pi coins at high rate quickly.
how to sell pi coins at high rate quickly.
DOT TECH
 
Greek trade a pillar of dynamic economic growth - European Business Review
Greek trade a pillar of dynamic economic growth - European Business ReviewGreek trade a pillar of dynamic economic growth - European Business Review
Greek trade a pillar of dynamic economic growth - European Business Review
Antonis Zairis
 
The European Unemployment Puzzle: implications from population aging
The European Unemployment Puzzle: implications from population agingThe European Unemployment Puzzle: implications from population aging
The European Unemployment Puzzle: implications from population aging
GRAPE
 
how can i use my minded pi coins I need some funds.
how can i use my minded pi coins I need some funds.how can i use my minded pi coins I need some funds.
how can i use my minded pi coins I need some funds.
DOT TECH
 
Falcon Invoice Discounting: Optimizing Returns with Minimal Risk
Falcon Invoice Discounting: Optimizing Returns with Minimal RiskFalcon Invoice Discounting: Optimizing Returns with Minimal Risk
Falcon Invoice Discounting: Optimizing Returns with Minimal Risk
Falcon Invoice Discounting
 
when will pi network coin be available on crypto exchange.
when will pi network coin be available on crypto exchange.when will pi network coin be available on crypto exchange.
when will pi network coin be available on crypto exchange.
DOT TECH
 
Latino Buying Power - May 2024 Presentation for Latino Caucus
Latino Buying Power - May 2024 Presentation for Latino CaucusLatino Buying Power - May 2024 Presentation for Latino Caucus
Latino Buying Power - May 2024 Presentation for Latino Caucus
Danay Escanaverino
 
一比一原版BCU毕业证伯明翰城市大学毕业证成绩单如何办理
一比一原版BCU毕业证伯明翰城市大学毕业证成绩单如何办理一比一原版BCU毕业证伯明翰城市大学毕业证成绩单如何办理
一比一原版BCU毕业证伯明翰城市大学毕业证成绩单如何办理
ydubwyt
 
一比一原版UOL毕业证利物浦大学毕业证成绩单如何办理
一比一原版UOL毕业证利物浦大学毕业证成绩单如何办理一比一原版UOL毕业证利物浦大学毕业证成绩单如何办理
一比一原版UOL毕业证利物浦大学毕业证成绩单如何办理
ydubwyt
 
how can I sell my pi coins for cash in a pi APP
how can I sell my pi coins for cash in a pi APPhow can I sell my pi coins for cash in a pi APP
how can I sell my pi coins for cash in a pi APP
DOT TECH
 
The new type of smart, sustainable entrepreneurship and the next day | Europe...
The new type of smart, sustainable entrepreneurship and the next day | Europe...The new type of smart, sustainable entrepreneurship and the next day | Europe...
The new type of smart, sustainable entrepreneurship and the next day | Europe...
Antonis Zairis
 
What price will pi network be listed on exchanges
What price will pi network be listed on exchangesWhat price will pi network be listed on exchanges
What price will pi network be listed on exchanges
DOT TECH
 
Chương 6. Ancol - phenol - ether (1).pdf
Chương 6. Ancol - phenol - ether (1).pdfChương 6. Ancol - phenol - ether (1).pdf
Chương 6. Ancol - phenol - ether (1).pdf
va2132004
 
Webinar Exploring DORA for Fintechs - Simont Braun
Webinar Exploring DORA for Fintechs - Simont BraunWebinar Exploring DORA for Fintechs - Simont Braun
Webinar Exploring DORA for Fintechs - Simont Braun
FinTech Belgium
 
what is a pi whale and how to access one.
what is a pi whale and how to access one.what is a pi whale and how to access one.
what is a pi whale and how to access one.
DOT TECH
 
Scope Of Macroeconomics introduction and basic theories
Scope Of Macroeconomics introduction and basic theoriesScope Of Macroeconomics introduction and basic theories
Scope Of Macroeconomics introduction and basic theories
nomankalyar153
 
US Economic Outlook - Being Decided - M Capital Group August 2021.pdf
US Economic Outlook - Being Decided - M Capital Group August 2021.pdfUS Economic Outlook - Being Decided - M Capital Group August 2021.pdf
US Economic Outlook - Being Decided - M Capital Group August 2021.pdf
pchutichetpong
 
Turin Startup Ecosystem 2024 - Ricerca sulle Startup e il Sistema dell'Innov...
Turin Startup Ecosystem 2024  - Ricerca sulle Startup e il Sistema dell'Innov...Turin Startup Ecosystem 2024  - Ricerca sulle Startup e il Sistema dell'Innov...
Turin Startup Ecosystem 2024 - Ricerca sulle Startup e il Sistema dell'Innov...
Quotidiano Piemontese
 

Recently uploaded (20)

how to sell pi coins on Binance exchange
how to sell pi coins on Binance exchangehow to sell pi coins on Binance exchange
how to sell pi coins on Binance exchange
 
innovative-invoice-discounting-platforms-in-india-empowering-retail-investors...
innovative-invoice-discounting-platforms-in-india-empowering-retail-investors...innovative-invoice-discounting-platforms-in-india-empowering-retail-investors...
innovative-invoice-discounting-platforms-in-india-empowering-retail-investors...
 
how to sell pi coins at high rate quickly.
how to sell pi coins at high rate quickly.how to sell pi coins at high rate quickly.
how to sell pi coins at high rate quickly.
 
Greek trade a pillar of dynamic economic growth - European Business Review
Greek trade a pillar of dynamic economic growth - European Business ReviewGreek trade a pillar of dynamic economic growth - European Business Review
Greek trade a pillar of dynamic economic growth - European Business Review
 
The European Unemployment Puzzle: implications from population aging
The European Unemployment Puzzle: implications from population agingThe European Unemployment Puzzle: implications from population aging
The European Unemployment Puzzle: implications from population aging
 
how can i use my minded pi coins I need some funds.
how can i use my minded pi coins I need some funds.how can i use my minded pi coins I need some funds.
how can i use my minded pi coins I need some funds.
 
Falcon Invoice Discounting: Optimizing Returns with Minimal Risk
Falcon Invoice Discounting: Optimizing Returns with Minimal RiskFalcon Invoice Discounting: Optimizing Returns with Minimal Risk
Falcon Invoice Discounting: Optimizing Returns with Minimal Risk
 
when will pi network coin be available on crypto exchange.
when will pi network coin be available on crypto exchange.when will pi network coin be available on crypto exchange.
when will pi network coin be available on crypto exchange.
 
Latino Buying Power - May 2024 Presentation for Latino Caucus
Latino Buying Power - May 2024 Presentation for Latino CaucusLatino Buying Power - May 2024 Presentation for Latino Caucus
Latino Buying Power - May 2024 Presentation for Latino Caucus
 
一比一原版BCU毕业证伯明翰城市大学毕业证成绩单如何办理
一比一原版BCU毕业证伯明翰城市大学毕业证成绩单如何办理一比一原版BCU毕业证伯明翰城市大学毕业证成绩单如何办理
一比一原版BCU毕业证伯明翰城市大学毕业证成绩单如何办理
 
一比一原版UOL毕业证利物浦大学毕业证成绩单如何办理
一比一原版UOL毕业证利物浦大学毕业证成绩单如何办理一比一原版UOL毕业证利物浦大学毕业证成绩单如何办理
一比一原版UOL毕业证利物浦大学毕业证成绩单如何办理
 
how can I sell my pi coins for cash in a pi APP
how can I sell my pi coins for cash in a pi APPhow can I sell my pi coins for cash in a pi APP
how can I sell my pi coins for cash in a pi APP
 
The new type of smart, sustainable entrepreneurship and the next day | Europe...
The new type of smart, sustainable entrepreneurship and the next day | Europe...The new type of smart, sustainable entrepreneurship and the next day | Europe...
The new type of smart, sustainable entrepreneurship and the next day | Europe...
 
What price will pi network be listed on exchanges
What price will pi network be listed on exchangesWhat price will pi network be listed on exchanges
What price will pi network be listed on exchanges
 
Chương 6. Ancol - phenol - ether (1).pdf
Chương 6. Ancol - phenol - ether (1).pdfChương 6. Ancol - phenol - ether (1).pdf
Chương 6. Ancol - phenol - ether (1).pdf
 
Webinar Exploring DORA for Fintechs - Simont Braun
Webinar Exploring DORA for Fintechs - Simont BraunWebinar Exploring DORA for Fintechs - Simont Braun
Webinar Exploring DORA for Fintechs - Simont Braun
 
what is a pi whale and how to access one.
what is a pi whale and how to access one.what is a pi whale and how to access one.
what is a pi whale and how to access one.
 
Scope Of Macroeconomics introduction and basic theories
Scope Of Macroeconomics introduction and basic theoriesScope Of Macroeconomics introduction and basic theories
Scope Of Macroeconomics introduction and basic theories
 
US Economic Outlook - Being Decided - M Capital Group August 2021.pdf
US Economic Outlook - Being Decided - M Capital Group August 2021.pdfUS Economic Outlook - Being Decided - M Capital Group August 2021.pdf
US Economic Outlook - Being Decided - M Capital Group August 2021.pdf
 
Turin Startup Ecosystem 2024 - Ricerca sulle Startup e il Sistema dell'Innov...
Turin Startup Ecosystem 2024  - Ricerca sulle Startup e il Sistema dell'Innov...Turin Startup Ecosystem 2024  - Ricerca sulle Startup e il Sistema dell'Innov...
Turin Startup Ecosystem 2024 - Ricerca sulle Startup e il Sistema dell'Innov...
 

Flf final 26mar10 full version no video

  • 1. the king is dead, long live the king the once and future state of venture capital david aronoff general partner flybridge capital partners david@flybridge.com 1 Flybridge Capital Partners 2010
  • 2. agenda •  the VC model needs an upgrade •  clues from history •  implications for entrepreneurs •  semi-random thoughts 2 Flybridge Capital Partners 2010
  • 3. some facts •  1972 to 2007, ~2500 VC-backed IPOs in US –  13% of all public firms at end of 2008. –  8% of market capitalization ($2.0 trillion) –  6% of total employees. •  Particularly true in high-technology industries. •  VC appears ~3 to 4x more powerful than corp R&D –  From late 70s to mid-90s, VC was only 3% of corporate R&D, but responsible for ~10%-12% of privately funded innovations. source: Lerner 3 Flybridge Capital Partners 2010
  • 4. the way it was •  basic premise: an overabundance of great ideas + an undersupply of capital = only “best” ideas get funded •  a sector supports 4-5 players –  1 is a home run –  2-3 are “ok” outcomes –  1-2 holes in the ground •  “healthy” industry loss ratios •  LPs can afford to remain patient 4 Flybridge Capital Partners 2010
  • 5. the way it is •  situation: an overabundance of similar ideas + an oversupply of capital = nearly every good idea got funded •  sectors have 10+ combatants –  0-1 is a triple. 0-3 are “ok” –  6-10 holes in the ground •  vc loss ratios go through the roof © Robert Mankoff, New Yorker with thanks to Prof Bill Sahlman, HBS •  LP patience waning b/c returns suffer & great recession impact 5 Flybridge Capital Partners 2010
  • 6. the dream exposed 6 Flybridge Capital Partners 2010
  • 7. time for an upgrade US Venture Capital Returns: Inception to 3/31/08 Source: Venture Economics, Prof. Paul Gompers HBS n=1927 7 Flybridge Capital Partners 2010
  • 8. product refresh underway Less Capital Being Committed Fewer Professionals Investing US VC Fund Raising and Funds Closed Venture Professionals 653 10,000 $120 700 9,000 $100 600 8,000 VC Funds Closed 451 $B USD Raised $105 500 7,000 $80 6,000 321 400 5,000 $60 $55 239 241 251 300 4,000 206 211 221 $40 $39 3,000 163 200 $29 $32 $36 2,000 $19 $28 70 $20 100 1,000 $9 $12 $- $6 0 0 1980 1987 1988 1997 1998 2007 2008 2009E Includes: General Partners, Managing General Partners, Venture Partners Dollars Firms Source: NVCA 8 Flybridge Capital Partners 2010
  • 9. we’ve seen this movie before PEAK Accelerating 1999/00 1983 Free Fall 1997-99 1969 2000-2002 1981-83 1983-85 1967-69 1969-71 Vintage Year IRR Top Quartile 10% Median 2% 26% 12% Firming Bottoming 2009-? 2003-08 2009 1991-96 1990/91 1986-90 1975-80 1974 1971-74 TROUGH investing through the trough offers strong opportunities Source: Brooks Zug, Harbourvest Partners 9 Flybridge Capital Partners 2010
  • 10. so … •  clearly VC has been very important driver of innovation and wealth creation •  but: –  low returns for past decade –  tremendous randomness in exit markets –  far too many companies funded –  calculus of funds doesn’t solve –  embroiled in secular & cyclical trough •  has become at best a short-tail phenomenon and at worst a random-walk. 10 Flybridge Capital Partners 2010
  • 11. what happens next •  the number of VCs must shrink –  NVCA estimated 10% in 2009, 15% more in 2010 –  PCG predicts 1500 firms to 500 within 5 to 7 years •  accordingly, amount of money and number of limited partner investors will decrease •  this won’t happen overnight –  VC partnerships are 10-12 years in duration, and they’ll drag out last fund in hope of hail maries •  trickle down impact –  fewer numbers of startups will get funded –  smaller financings due to decreased VC fund sizes 11 Flybridge Capital Partners 2010
  • 12. set the wayback machine 12 Flybridge Capital Partners 2010
  • 13. that 70’s show •  VC circa 1970’s –  take the good •  small funds (in dollars & professionals) •  generalists wrt industry focus / versatile •  collegial approach / lots of syndication –  size of funds & firms -> so smaller financings –  longer horizons until liquidity –  ignore the irrelevant •  bootstrapped companies - no startups (mid/late 80’s phenom) –  adapt the model to the current environment •  Much of this is happening organically already 13 Flybridge Capital Partners 2010
  • 14. implications for entrepreneurs what the new model means: •  focus on capital efficiency until inflection point –  garage: bootstrap model – over longer period, CFBE –  seed-like: quicker time to lift-off (or crash) on short $$ –  supersized first rounds: will be harder to come by •  concentration on new areas w/huge potential SoM –  new media, energy-technology, revolutions –  fewer me-toos (salami model) •  financing models morph –  angels /seed funds /VC get along because they have to –  full-funded staged approach? 14 Flybridge Capital Partners 2010
  • 15. implications for entrepreneurs what the new model doesn’t mean: •  venture investors won't invest in early-stage ideas –  it’s the charter of our fund and most others •  investors only look for epic returns (10/100x) –  my crystal ball is really no good •  VCs are replacing angel investors –  but we’re actively making seed investments •  bellbottoms are back in style –  did they ever really go out? 15 Flybridge Capital Partners 2010
  • 16. semi-random thoughts #1 •  VC performance is highly persistent –  good continue to do well, but so do poor performers! •  this is true for entrepreneurs and investors •  deal sourcing is key factor –  successful entrepreneurs have returns that are 50% greater than first timers or those who failed last time •  success more likely for first timers than those who failed last time –  50% of the outperformance of top fund is due to higher concentration of serial entrepreneurs •  VC value-added is greatest with first timers source: Gompers, Lerner, Sahlman 16 Flybridge Capital Partners 2010
  • 17. semi-random thoughts #2 •  funding/opportunity size ratio –  not all big opportunities require big financings, at least at first, sometimes at all –  but some types of investments require huge rounds early on; don’t know if they’re good bets, just know I won’t place them •  being first matters a lot –  the tao of glen garry glen ross •  mike maples’ “thunder lizards” •  “gap” vs “gretzky” 17 Flybridge Capital Partners 2010
  • 18. semi-random thoughts #3 •  home-run mentality –  Are VCs bound to the home-run model or should they be more focused on OBP? –  I suggest that both the home-run and OBP models don’t work, but a hybrid of both is warranted (shameless self-promotion) 18 Flybridge Capital Partners 2010