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Marc J. Dourojeanni
June 2015
A brief presentation to the
«Funders of the Amazon
Basin»
1. Amazon environmental situation vis a vis deforestation
and forest degradation and causes of the situation
1. Direct causes: Agriculture (96% or more)
2. Indirect causes: Roads (90% or more)
3. Forest exploitation: selective logging, fisheries, etc.
2. Future infrastructure: Business as usual!
3. Infrastructure impacting on natural resources:
1. Transportation
2. Hydroenergy
4. Exploitation of natural resources
1. (Agriculture, Forestry)
2. Mining
3. Oil & gas
5. Priorities for conservation investments
Contents
Protected areas (minus superpositions) ………………
20%
Strict protection……………………. 10%
Soft protection ……………………… 10%
Indigenous land ……………………………………….. 21%
Production, protection and non allocated forests …….
30% ?
Agriculture …………………………….…………….… 17%
Annual…. …………………………. 8%
Grassland…………………………. 7%
Permanent…………………………. 2%
Secondary forests (partially imbricated
with annual agriculture and grassland)……….…..…. 6%
?
Other (water bodies, cities, etc.) …………...….…..… 6%
Causes of deforestation in
Andean countries (Peru)
Over 80% unlawful: No title
and unsuitable land
Small scale agriculture: 80% ?
Mid size agriculture: 20% ?
Transformed into:
Grassland: 16%
Agriculture: 10%
Fallow: 74%
BRAZIL
An area exceeding 76 million ha
(larger than all Peruvian
Amazon), or about 19% of its
total surface, has been cleared
in the Amazon since 1970,
when only 2.4% of the
Amazon's forests had been
No overall evaluation available !
However:
Every year degradation size is equivalent to
deforestation
Considering the history of past 50 years of
selective logging (moving from one species to
another) + hunting + “secondary” products
probably more than 50% of remaining forest is
degraded.
Infrastructure with impact
on natural resources
Transportation
• Roads
• Formal
• Informal
• Railroads
• Waterways
• Airports
Energy
• Hydro-energy
Urbanization
Exploitation of natural
resources
Agriculture
 Annual crops
Formal (commodities)
Informal
 Cattle ranching
 Permanent: coffee, cacao, etc.
 Biofuels (oil palm, sugar cane)
Oil and gas
Mining (Formal/Informal)
Forestry
Fisheries
1990 42,000 km in the Amazon
2004-2007 17,000 km/year only in the Brazilian Amazon
2012 96,500 km in the Amazon (RASG)
2013 178,000 km of roads only in the Brazilian
Amazon (including inminent projects).
Laurance:
• Brazil is currently building 7,500 kilometers of new
paved highways that crisscross the Amazon basin.
• By the year 2020, rates of forest destruction would rise
by up to 500,000 ha/year, and the area of forest that
remained in large, unfragmented tracts -exceeding
100,000 km2 would decline by 36%.
Informality
Most roads in the Amazon are not planned by
national/federal or state/regional governments… They
respond to local decisions!
 91% of the Brazilian roads are not paved and 80% of non-
paved roads is municipal.
o i.e. In Para State 72% is not paved and 77% is
municipal
o In Peru it is worst. Even international roads are being
built without national approval. Six roads are now
being built between the Amazon and Ucayali rivers
and the Brazilian frontier all driven by individual or
group interests (logging, farming, smuggling, etc.)
International roads, railways and waterways
Peru-Brazil:
2 Interoceanic roads (one bimodal) operating
1 Interoceanic road in construction (Pucallpa-Cruzeiro
do Sul )
5 railways planned , 2 highly probable (China
financing?)
1 waterway operating but to be improved
Bolivia-Brazil:
2 Interoceanic roads
1 projected railway
Colombia-Brazil
1 Interoceanic road + waterway
Venezuela-Brazil
Anounced investments in Amazon transportation
(billion US$)
 Ministry of Transportation of Peru (2010-2021)
 Roads 3.8
 Railways 5.1
 Waterways
 Government of Loreto (2006-2015)
 Roads 2.5
 Railways 2.0
 Waterways 2.6
The «Chinese»
railway Brazil-Peru
US$10 billion
Energy Agreement Brazil-Peru
(2010):
7,000 MW in the next 50 years.
but
The Pongo de Manseriche
(Marañón) project alone may
produce 7,000MW
Brazilian dams in
Operation: 74
Total in Brazil
(operative, under construction & planned): 258
Total in Amazonia : 414
(23 dams with more than 50,000 ha flooded area each)
Finer & Jenkins (Amazon Andes):
Today: 41 small/mid size hydro
Projects : 151 new hydroelectric projects
Infrastructure impacting on natural resources
Hydro-energy
Exploitation of natural resources
Mining , oil and gas
MINING
 53,000 permits or concessions covering 21% of the
Amazon…. (80% in Brazil, 11% in Peru)
 Unlawful mining (garimpo)… much worst than legal
mining (Peru, Brazil, Ecuador, Guyana, etc.)
OIL & GAS
 Concentrated in the Andean countries: 263 of the 327
petroleum concessions
 Enormous overlap with indigenous land and some
protected areas
 Only 25% is currently in the production phase
 IIRSA (today’s COSIPLAN-UNASUR)
Agenda of Priority Integration (transport, energy)
Projects: 544 projects, estimated at US$130 billion
 Peru (Amazon 2010-2021), including natural
resources exploitation
 US$80 billion
 Brazilian PAC
Total US$313 billion, over 40% in the Amazon
NOT TO BE TAKEN VERY
SERIOUSLY… HOWEVER
STILL MANY, MANY BILLION
DOLLARS !
«Conservation» versus «Development»
budgets
Annual budget for conservation
Governments…………………….. US$900
million/year ?
Donations (Castro de la Mata)….. 206
million/year ?
Carbon related ( REDD, etc.)…….. Future
Annual expenditures for development
Governments
Foreign private investments
National private investments
What to do with such small money
for conservation?
Many, many
billion/year
!!!
Today’s internationally financed activities
(Castro de la Mata):Legislation, policy,
enforcement ….. 27.4%
PES/RED …………………………. 23.5%
Protected areas ………………… 15.8%
Local livelihood…………………… 7.5%
Indigenous land……………………. 6.3%
Others…………………………… 19.5%
Government expenses concentrates in
enforcement but spend % less for protected
areas.
These expenditures have no correlation with
 % more investments are needed in the Andes.
Governments usually do not apply
recommendation on legislation, policy or
enforcement. Even less coming from abroad: A
lot of paper and little results.
PES/RED is also much money wasted in paper.
Governments are interested… they may pay for.
 The only real significant success until now are
the strictly protected areas. Every day more
abandoned !
The main additional option for the future are the
indigenous territories.
Poor results of expensive “community based
Best opportunities for conservation are (in priority
order):
1. Strictly protected areas
1. Better management, more areas
2. Ecotourism & raising public awareness
3. Intensify sustainability in buffer zones
2. Indigenous territories
1. Profitability with sustainability
2. Conservation practices (protected areas
inside)
3. Soft protected areas
1. Profitability with sustainability
Priorities for international conservation
investments
Temporal
gains that
must be
consolidat
ed

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Finance and development trends in amazonia

  • 1. Marc J. Dourojeanni June 2015 A brief presentation to the «Funders of the Amazon Basin»
  • 2. 1. Amazon environmental situation vis a vis deforestation and forest degradation and causes of the situation 1. Direct causes: Agriculture (96% or more) 2. Indirect causes: Roads (90% or more) 3. Forest exploitation: selective logging, fisheries, etc. 2. Future infrastructure: Business as usual! 3. Infrastructure impacting on natural resources: 1. Transportation 2. Hydroenergy 4. Exploitation of natural resources 1. (Agriculture, Forestry) 2. Mining 3. Oil & gas 5. Priorities for conservation investments Contents
  • 3. Protected areas (minus superpositions) ……………… 20% Strict protection……………………. 10% Soft protection ……………………… 10% Indigenous land ……………………………………….. 21% Production, protection and non allocated forests ……. 30% ? Agriculture …………………………….…………….… 17% Annual…. …………………………. 8% Grassland…………………………. 7% Permanent…………………………. 2% Secondary forests (partially imbricated with annual agriculture and grassland)……….…..…. 6% ? Other (water bodies, cities, etc.) …………...….…..… 6%
  • 4. Causes of deforestation in Andean countries (Peru) Over 80% unlawful: No title and unsuitable land Small scale agriculture: 80% ? Mid size agriculture: 20% ? Transformed into: Grassland: 16% Agriculture: 10% Fallow: 74%
  • 5. BRAZIL An area exceeding 76 million ha (larger than all Peruvian Amazon), or about 19% of its total surface, has been cleared in the Amazon since 1970, when only 2.4% of the Amazon's forests had been
  • 6. No overall evaluation available ! However: Every year degradation size is equivalent to deforestation Considering the history of past 50 years of selective logging (moving from one species to another) + hunting + “secondary” products probably more than 50% of remaining forest is degraded.
  • 7. Infrastructure with impact on natural resources Transportation • Roads • Formal • Informal • Railroads • Waterways • Airports Energy • Hydro-energy Urbanization Exploitation of natural resources Agriculture  Annual crops Formal (commodities) Informal  Cattle ranching  Permanent: coffee, cacao, etc.  Biofuels (oil palm, sugar cane) Oil and gas Mining (Formal/Informal) Forestry Fisheries
  • 8. 1990 42,000 km in the Amazon 2004-2007 17,000 km/year only in the Brazilian Amazon 2012 96,500 km in the Amazon (RASG) 2013 178,000 km of roads only in the Brazilian Amazon (including inminent projects). Laurance: • Brazil is currently building 7,500 kilometers of new paved highways that crisscross the Amazon basin. • By the year 2020, rates of forest destruction would rise by up to 500,000 ha/year, and the area of forest that remained in large, unfragmented tracts -exceeding 100,000 km2 would decline by 36%.
  • 9. Informality Most roads in the Amazon are not planned by national/federal or state/regional governments… They respond to local decisions!  91% of the Brazilian roads are not paved and 80% of non- paved roads is municipal. o i.e. In Para State 72% is not paved and 77% is municipal o In Peru it is worst. Even international roads are being built without national approval. Six roads are now being built between the Amazon and Ucayali rivers and the Brazilian frontier all driven by individual or group interests (logging, farming, smuggling, etc.)
  • 10. International roads, railways and waterways Peru-Brazil: 2 Interoceanic roads (one bimodal) operating 1 Interoceanic road in construction (Pucallpa-Cruzeiro do Sul ) 5 railways planned , 2 highly probable (China financing?) 1 waterway operating but to be improved Bolivia-Brazil: 2 Interoceanic roads 1 projected railway Colombia-Brazil 1 Interoceanic road + waterway Venezuela-Brazil
  • 11. Anounced investments in Amazon transportation (billion US$)  Ministry of Transportation of Peru (2010-2021)  Roads 3.8  Railways 5.1  Waterways  Government of Loreto (2006-2015)  Roads 2.5  Railways 2.0  Waterways 2.6 The «Chinese» railway Brazil-Peru US$10 billion
  • 12. Energy Agreement Brazil-Peru (2010): 7,000 MW in the next 50 years. but The Pongo de Manseriche (Marañón) project alone may produce 7,000MW Brazilian dams in Operation: 74 Total in Brazil (operative, under construction & planned): 258 Total in Amazonia : 414 (23 dams with more than 50,000 ha flooded area each) Finer & Jenkins (Amazon Andes): Today: 41 small/mid size hydro Projects : 151 new hydroelectric projects Infrastructure impacting on natural resources Hydro-energy
  • 13. Exploitation of natural resources Mining , oil and gas MINING  53,000 permits or concessions covering 21% of the Amazon…. (80% in Brazil, 11% in Peru)  Unlawful mining (garimpo)… much worst than legal mining (Peru, Brazil, Ecuador, Guyana, etc.) OIL & GAS  Concentrated in the Andean countries: 263 of the 327 petroleum concessions  Enormous overlap with indigenous land and some protected areas  Only 25% is currently in the production phase
  • 14.  IIRSA (today’s COSIPLAN-UNASUR) Agenda of Priority Integration (transport, energy) Projects: 544 projects, estimated at US$130 billion  Peru (Amazon 2010-2021), including natural resources exploitation  US$80 billion  Brazilian PAC Total US$313 billion, over 40% in the Amazon NOT TO BE TAKEN VERY SERIOUSLY… HOWEVER STILL MANY, MANY BILLION DOLLARS !
  • 15. «Conservation» versus «Development» budgets Annual budget for conservation Governments…………………….. US$900 million/year ? Donations (Castro de la Mata)….. 206 million/year ? Carbon related ( REDD, etc.)…….. Future Annual expenditures for development Governments Foreign private investments National private investments What to do with such small money for conservation? Many, many billion/year !!!
  • 16. Today’s internationally financed activities (Castro de la Mata):Legislation, policy, enforcement ….. 27.4% PES/RED …………………………. 23.5% Protected areas ………………… 15.8% Local livelihood…………………… 7.5% Indigenous land……………………. 6.3% Others…………………………… 19.5% Government expenses concentrates in enforcement but spend % less for protected areas. These expenditures have no correlation with
  • 17.  % more investments are needed in the Andes. Governments usually do not apply recommendation on legislation, policy or enforcement. Even less coming from abroad: A lot of paper and little results. PES/RED is also much money wasted in paper. Governments are interested… they may pay for.  The only real significant success until now are the strictly protected areas. Every day more abandoned ! The main additional option for the future are the indigenous territories. Poor results of expensive “community based
  • 18. Best opportunities for conservation are (in priority order): 1. Strictly protected areas 1. Better management, more areas 2. Ecotourism & raising public awareness 3. Intensify sustainability in buffer zones 2. Indigenous territories 1. Profitability with sustainability 2. Conservation practices (protected areas inside) 3. Soft protected areas 1. Profitability with sustainability Priorities for international conservation investments Temporal gains that must be consolidat ed