FiinPro Digest #3: Covid-19 Pandemic: Assessing the Impacts from Corporate Financial Data Perspective

1Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research • Credit Rating
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Covid-19 Pandemic: Assessing the Impacts
from Corporate Financial Data Perspective
FiinPro Digest I Issue #3 I May 29, 2020
Prepared by: FiinGroup Data Analytics Team
@ 2019 FiinGroup Joint Stock Company
All rights reserved. All information contained in this publication is copyrighted in the name of FiinGroup, and as such no part of this publication may be reproduced,
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Table of Content
Content Page
Preface 3
Executive Summary 4 – 7
Part 1: Performance of Non-Financial Companies 8
1.1. Growth and Quality of Growth 9 – 15
1.2. Debts and Interest Coverage Ratio 16 – 18
1.3. Cash Flow Quality 19 – 20
Part 2: Banking Performance 21
2.1. Credit Growth and NIM 22 – 23
2.2. Change in Income Structure 24 – 28
2.3. Asset quality under the impact of Covid-19 29 – 30
2.4. Capital Structure and Liquidity 31 – 32
Part 3: Sector Outlook Update 2020 33
3.1. Overview 34 – 36
3.2. Real Estate 37 – 38
3.3. Travel & Leisure 39 – 40
3.4. Food & Beverage 41
3.5. Retail 42
3.6. Oil & Gas 43
3.7. Basic Resources 44
3.8. Personal & Household Goods 45
3.9. Utilities 46
Content Page
Part 4: Price and Value 47
4.1. 2020 EPS Growth Forecast 48 – 49
4.2. VN30 EPS Growth Forecast 50 – 51
4.3. Vietnam Stock Market Valuation Review 52
Appendix 53
Appendix 1: Net Revenue growth by Sector 54
Appendix 2: Profit after Tax (PAT) growth by Sector 55
Appendix 3: EBIT growth by Sector 56
Appendix 4: EBITDA growth by Sector 57
Appendix 5: Debt to Owner’s Equity Ratio by Sector 58
Appendix 6: Profit after Tax Margin by Sector 59
Appendix 7: EBIT margin by Sector 60
Appendix 8: EBITDA margin by Sector 61
Methodology and Important Data Notes! 62
FiinGroup Introduction 63 – 73

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Preface
Dear valued customers,
We are pleased to present FiinPro Data Digest #3 prepared by
FiinGroup.
This Report is part of “FiinPro Data Digest” series and prepared
primarily for subscribers of FiinGroup’s financial information and
data platforms. As noted in previous issues, FiinPro Data Digest
focuses on analyzing financial data to give commentaries and
findings with specific data-driven evidence in order to provide
independent and in-depth perspective on securities and financial
issues.
In FiinPro Data Digest #2, we conducted analysis on the quality of
corporate earnings and growth. FiinPro Data Digest #3, meanwhile,
focuses on analyzing data on corporate financial strength and
growth prospects amist the Covid-19 impact.
We hope that this Report will provide insights not only to analysts at
investment institutions and individual investors but also to credit
institutions and relevant government agencies in working out
measures or policies to lessen the Covid-19 impact on different
sectors.
For stock market, we realize that over the past two months, the
recovery of the VN-Index has been long ahead of the revival of
corporate fundamentals such as growth quality and earnings
prospect in 2020. We are trying to show the 2020 growth prospect of
different sectors as well as of the VN30 companies so that
customers can refer and conduct further analysis to support your
own investment decisions or assets allocation.
This report was prepared by the Data Analytics team of FiinGroup's
Financial Information Division. We hope this issue will provide you with
useful information.
A majority of data in this report was extracted from our FiinPro
Platform which is currently used by a lot of local and foreign
institutions.
We would like to note that data from financial statements have
been adjusted for the purpose of assessing corporate growth
quality as well as prospects. We also adjusted calculation
formulas for various indicators such as EPS, EBIT and EBITDA
growth with specific interpretation. We highly recommend you
carefully read all notes for every chart and methodology on page
62.
We are looking forward to receiving your comments and feedback on
this report. If you would like more information, please contact our
service contact or email info@fiingroup.vn.
Happy and Successful Investing!
Nguyen Quang Thuan
CEO
FiinGroup Joint Stock Company

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Executive Summary
Impacts of the pandemic have clearly reflected in the growth slowdown
of non-financial companies in Q1-2020:
 While revenue decreased slightly by 4.4%, profit after tax plunged by
57.8% from the same period last year and 68.9% from the preceding
quarter.
 However, if excluding two sectors worst hit by the Covid-19 outbreak
(Travel & Leisure and Oil & Gas), profit after tax of the remaining sectors
decreased by 27% YoY and 50.2% QoQ.
 The profit decline was steep in many sectors and industries, especially
those directly affected by Covid-19 such as Oil & Gas (-303%), Travel
and Leisure (-212%) and Real Estate (-81%).
 In this context, some sectors recorded high revenue growth including
Telecommunications (+23%), Retail (+16%), Food & Beverage (+8.7%),
Health Care/Pharmaceuticals (+10%) and Technology (+8%). These
sectors also recorded double-digit profit growth including Basic
Resources (+25%), typically HPG +27%; Technology (+14%) with FPT
+18%); Telecommunications (+227%), and Health Care/Pharmaceuticals
(+11%) in the first quarter.
Earnings quality declined sharply in the first quarter of 2020, following
the decline from the beginning of 2018 as we pointed out in the
previous publications:
 EBITDA in Q1-2020 decreased by 26.1% over the same period last year
and decreased by 33.3% from the preceding quarter. This is the 10th
quarter of decline since Q4-2017. This decline is due to Q1-2020
EBITDA/Net revenue fell to 10.9% from 13.7% in Q1-2019 and 12.3% in
Q4-2019.
 EBIT in Q1-2020 decreased by 44.7% YoY and 50% QoQ. The EBIT/Net
revenue ratio in Q1-2020 fell to 5.8% from 9.3% in Q1-2019 and 8.3% in
Q4-2019.
 The YoY decline in EBITDA and EBIT growth occurred in most sectors.
However, some sectors still had relatively high EBIT growth, at double
digits such as Basic Resources +31% thanks to the contribution of HPG,
Telecommunications (+43%) with the contribution of VGI, Health
Care/Pharmaceuticals +18%, Automotive distribution +18%, Retail +15%
and Technology +15%.
The decline in earnings quality has made corporate ability to pay
both principal and interest fall sharply:
 Interest Coverage Ratio, calculated by dividing EBIT by Interest
Expenses in the period, fell from 3.0 in Quarter 4-2019 to 2.0 in Quarter
1-2020. In other words, in Quarter 1-2020, interest expenses equaled to
about 50% of profit before tax and interest.
 The decline in Interest Coverage Ratio mainly came from the decline in
EBIT profit margin.
 More notably, cash flow from operating activities ("CFO") was also
negative for the first time at -VND 26.0 trillion in the first quarter of 2020,
data was from 999 non-financial companies. This is the first time CFO
has been negative since 2015.
 Because of negative CFO and declining Interest Coverage Ratio
companies have to borrow more to maintain operations. Accordingly, the
Debt/Equity ratio increased from 0.68 at the end of 2019 to 0.72 at the
end of the first quarter of 2020. (Note: the total number of companies that
we have data is 999 with total debt (short-term and long-term) of 1,030
trillion, equivalent to 12.6% of the whole banking system's loan balance at
the end of Quarter 1-2020).
 Cash flow from investing (CFI) shrank sharply in the first quarter of 2020.
In Q1-2018 and Q1-2019, companies spent VND51.8 trillion and
VND62.9 trillion respectively for investment activities, this figure dropped
to VND37.7 trillion in Q1-2020 (40% lower YoY). This is the lowest level
in the last 3 years. The data shows that companies have suspended
investment activities to ensure the cash flow for stable and safe business
operations in the context of the recent disease.
 The positive point is that the Average Age of Inventory and the number of
Days sales outstanding (DSO) and Days payable outstanding (DPO) rose
slightly but still not as high as they were in the previous crisis.
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Listed banks recorded their profits after tax increasing YoY but
considerably decreasing QoQ:
 Profit after tax of 18 listed banks rose by 3.4% YoY but fell by 11.5%
QoQ.
 Banks' profit somewhat grew because banks still maintained profit
from credit activities. Net interest margin (NIM) declined slightly by
1.1 basis points compared to Q4-2019 to 0.87% while NPL ratio
remained quite low at 1.65% at the end of Q1-2020. Net interest
income climbed by 13.6% YoY and 0.4% QoQ.
 Net fee and commission income rose by 11.4% YoY but dropped by
21.6% QoQ.
 In addition, net income from the remaining activities (trading of
foreign currencies, investment and trading securities, capital
contribution/equity investment and other activities) dropped by 24.6%
QoQ but jumped by 32.4% YoY. This is mainly due to the fact that
some banks realized securities investments in government bonds in
the context of reduced bond yields. However, due to low credit
growth, banks still increased their bond portfolio in the first quarter.
 Notably, in our opinion, the impacts of Covid-19 were only partially
reflected in the business results of banks in Q1-2020. Specifically,
according to the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV), banks restructured
VND13.5 trillion debts for about 12,000 customers affected by Covid-
19 in the first quarter. According to Circular 01/2020/TT-NHNN of the
SBV, structured outstanding loans will still be recorded as current
debt and hence no provision required.
 However, it is noteworthy that banks do not have to accrue interest
from these restructured debts, and the total restructured outstanding
loans were nearly VND138 trillion as of May 11, 2020. This will
probably reduce net interest income in Q2, but the benefit is that
banks will not have to pay corporate income tax on that accrued
interest.
Executive summary (cont.)
Banks’ earnings are expected to drop 11.9% in 2020:
 According to aggregated data from 12/18 listed banks accounting for
91.8% of market capitalization, which has announced the 2020 targets
after the general meeting of shareholders or has profit forecast made by
analysts, the estimated profit after tax is expected to fell by 11.9% in
2020. These targets are mostly set after the pandemic has been
contained recently.
 The low target setting is due to the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic and
the SBV’s policy orientation on sharing difficulties with customers. Covid-
19's influence is still being analyzed and evaluated by banks and they
can adjust business targets in 2020.
 According to our analysis, banks' financial statements in Q1-2020 did not
fully reflect the increase in provision expenses due to the impact of the
Covid-19 pandemic as well as massive in profit and cashflow of
businesses that we pointed out. The Provision expense/Outstanding
loans ratio increased slightly from 0.32% in Q4-2019 to 0.42% mainly due
to the provision expense increase in VCB and VPB. Data from the 2008
crisis indicates that the recognition of provision expense was often
spread over many quarters because the assessment of effects requires
time for evaluation and analysis as well as changes in accounting policies
for adaptation of the sector.
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Stock market outlook till the end of 2020:
 The stock markets of Vietnam as well as other countries are being
supported by new cash flows in the context of the Covid-19 shock.
financial strength and corporate earnings were seriously hit in Q1-2020
and likely in Q2-2020 as we pointed out in this Report.
 In respose to such a momentous impact, governments of many nations
have taken different measures to create liquidity for the market directly
through transactions and financial support packages for companies in
various forms. This kept the stock market active and stock indexes
increased sharply after touching the bottom at the end of March as
mentioned in our “FiinTrade Diary” series recently.
 The fact is clearly seen in Travel & Leisure (including airline stocks)
whose profits declined by 211.9% YoY in Q1-2020 and is projected to fall
18.6% in 2020. The price of airline stocks, however, bounced back 26.6%
from the "temporary bottom" set on March 24, 2020. Similarly, Oil & Gas
public companies reported a 303.4% drop in Q1/2020 profits and project
a lower decline of 35% for the whole year, but their stock prices have still
rose by 30% from the “temporary bottom”. Many other sectors have
similar stories, but just in narrower correlation.
 Despite such unusual stories in the stock markets of Vietnam and other
countries, we still observed the influence of major fundamentals on
corporate financial strength and corporate earnings prospects on stock
prices, with HPG, DBC, and FPT being among prominent examples.
 Finally, we believe that the pursuit of fundamental-based investment
principles with a focus on corporate financial strength and earnings
prospects remains an approach that is hardly to be reversed in the post-
Covid-19 era. This is very important when the stock market returns to its
usual fundamentals: in the long term, prospects will primarily lead stock
price stories. Of course, short-term waves remain opportunities (risks as
well) to short-term investors or speculators, who currently account for a
majority of trading value on the Vietnam stock market.
7Profits after tax of non-financial public companies is expected to
decline 12.1% YoY in 2020:
 Up to 426/1644 non-financial public companies, accounting for 71% of
the total market capitalization, had their 2020 management estimates
and earnings consensus (updated after the Covid-19 outbreak)
disclosed.
 This year, management are confident to maintain an YoY increase of
2.5% in revenue despite the Covid-19 impact. Some sectors still set
high revenue growth targets such as Real Estate (+26.2%); Food &
Beverage (+24.5%); Basic Resources (+13.3%); and Technology
(+14.7%).
 However, the profit after-tax target for 2020 is expected to fall 12.1%
YoY. This is a sharp decline compared to the actual growth rate of
14.7% in 2019 and 18.2% in 2018 of these 426 companies. The profit
after tax target is also widely spread. In addition to Basic Resources
(+35.1%) with HPG, and Technology (+18%) with FPT, almost all the
remaining sectors have moderate targets, or even sharp decrease
projections.
 We also note that prior to the Covid-19 outbreak, non-financial profit
growth was forecast to be +15% for 2020 as we analyzed in the FiinPro
Digest # 2.
 This shows that, if these sectors affected by Covid-19 have a mutation
in business results thanks to the re-open of flight routes, vibrant
domestic tourism and other macro-economic factors, the business
result will improve considerably. From our experience of monitoring and
analyzing data for many years, management of public companies are
more likely to build a "safe" or moderate business plans than they
achieve later. This is even more true in difficult situations when
objective factors such as this "black swan" appear. This reflects quite
clearly not only in the picture of the first quarter but also in the whole
year of 2020 that we analyze in this report.
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VN30 Index: The underlying index has the strong influence on the stock
market (accounting for 79.3% of the total market capitalization of HOSE), the
derivatives market, and dynamic index funds. We would like to have a look
at earnings prospects and stock price stories of VN30 stocks as follows:
 Adjusted EPS of the VN30 companies is expected to decrease by 5.2% in
2020 as per management estimates and earnings consensus by
securities companies following the social distancing. In particular, EPS of
non-financial public companies and banks is likely to fall by 1.1% and
11.8%, respectively.
 Management of top companies in the VN30 such as VHM, HPG, and FPT
are still confident with their 2020 business plans, especially Technology
and Basic Resources as pointed out in this Report.
 Eight out of nine banks in the VN30 had their 2020 management
estimates or earnings consensus by securities companies disclosed, but
BID, STB and VPB are the only three banks disclosing specific targets for
2020. The other banks, meanwhile, have not yet given any specific
figures on their 2020 plan because of unclear impacts of Covid-19
pandemic.
 Although the 2020 EPS growth projection turned negative following the
Covid-19 outbreak, FiinGroup believe that profitability indicators and
positive performance of some VN30 components with ROE and ROA in
Q1-2020 reported at 19.2% and 7.6%, respectively.
 At that EPS, P/E (forward) of the VN30 index is at 15.71, higher than the
trailing P/E of 14.63.
 Given the macro economic stability, the increased allocation of index-
tracking funds (including offshore ETFs) to VN30 stocks regardless of
fundamentals, and current valuation, it is not irrational to make long-term
investments in sector champions with sustainable business models.
8 On that basis, we have tried to summarize data from management
estimates to make assessment on growth prospects of certain sectors
within the scope of data analysis in order to help you understand sectors
with better growth prospects in the post-Covid-19 period.
 Accordingly, with profit after tax projected to decline by 12.1% for non-
financial companies and 11.9% for 12/18 banks (which account for 91.8%
of market capitalization of the banking sector) in 2020, there are certain
sectors that still set high profit targets with double-digit growth projection
as follows:
‒ That is the story of Technology with the “resilience" of FPT and other
peers in the Covid-19 outbreak. The sector reported a profit after tax
increase of 15.9% in Q1-2020, projecting a 18% growth for the whole
year of 2020. This has supported prices of Technology stocks, which
rebounded 24.8% from the “temporary bottom" on March 24, 2020
and fell by 4.5% since the beginning of 2020.
‒ That is the story of Basic Resources stocks led by HPG breakout.
This sector's stock price has increased by 10.6% since the beginning
of the year and increased by 44.9% from the "temporary bottom".
This price increase was driven by 25.4% increase in profit after-tax in
Q1-2020 and a 35.1% growth projection for the whole year despite a
profit decrease across sectors as pointed out in Part 4 of this Report.
‒ This is a remarkable breakthrough of Real estate stocks. Despite the
strong net selling by foreign investors in March and April, the Covid
19 impact, as well as the tightening of rules on lending to Real Estate,
Real estate stocks bounced back 31.5% from the "temporary bottom“,
supported by a 17.3% profit increase in Q1-2020 and the 3.3%
growth projection for the whole year.
‒ And there are many other sectors that are mentioned in this Report
and you can read to have background information and conduct further
analysis to serve your own purposes.

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Part 1: Performance of Non-Financial Companies
This section presents data of the non-financial companies, which include all companies listed on HOSE, HNX and
UPCOM without taking into account those in the Financial sector including Banks, Insurance companies,
Securities Companies and Fund Management companies.
The data was updated as of May 27, 2020. Accordingly, 999 non-financial listed companies officially announced
their business results for the first quarter of 2020. This list of companies accounted for 97.6% of the total market
capitalization of non-financial companies on HOSE, HNX and UPCoM.
In order to ensure the consistence of data coverage, only listed companies were covered in this report.
Our FiinPro Platform currently provides data on both listed and unlisted companies. Please trial our
FiinPro Platform for better experience or contact our Customers Support to have further updated data.

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 Net Revenue down 4.4%: This was the first quarter of revenue’s negative growth in the last 5 years and was also the first quarter of
sharp slowing down from the peak in 2017 the first two quarters in 2018. Revenues of almost all sectors fell except for consumer sectors
such as Retail, Food and Beverage, Pharmaceuticals, Telecommunications; and Technology. These are all sectors benefiting or less
affected by the Covid-19 Pandemic in the first quarter of 2020 (see Slide 11 for more details)
 Profit after tax (PAT) fell 57.8% YoY. The sharpest fall was seen in Oil & Gas sector (-303.4%); Travel & Leisure (-211.9%) and Real
Estate (-81.2%); and Utilities (-41.1%) (see slide 10 for more details). However, some sectors still saw double-digit profit growth such as
Basic Resources (25.4%), Technology (14.0%) and Telecommunications ( 14.0%) (see slide 12 for more details)
 Compared to the latest quarter 4-2019 (QoQ), net revenue decreased by 22.4% and net PAT fell by 68.9%.
 The question is why revenue was down slightly, the profits fell so sharply? The data gives us two main reasons: (i) due to the sharp
decline of two sectors, Travel & Leisure (including airlines); and Oil & Gas. The Oil & Gas sector was double hit by both low oil prices
and social distancing. Accordingly, profit after tax plunged 10 times as much as the decrease of revenue; (ii) due to the large fixed cost
in some sectors, the revenue decreased by 4.4% but the cost of goods sold decreased only 1.2% over the same period.
Q1-2020, Net Revenue of non-financial companies fell 4.4% YoY meanwhile Profit after tax plunged 57.8%
1.1. Growth and Quality of Growth
Figure 1: YoY Quarterly Net Revenue Growth Figure 2: YoY Quarterly Profit After Tax Growth
-1.1%
17.6%
6.2%
1.4%
-4.4%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Low net revenue
growth rate was
mainly due to Oil &
Gas sector (oil price
plunged in period
2015 – 2016)
-20.1%
-17.0%
13.0%
-57.8%
7.8%
3.6%
-5%
-3%
-1%
1%
3%
5%
7%
9%
11%
-65%
-45%
-25%
-5%
15%
35%
55%
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
PATmargin
PATGrowth
PAT Growth PAT Margin
Source FiinPro Platform
Note: The aggregated data from 999 listed non-financial enterprises accounts for 97.6% of the non-financial enterprises' capitalization on 3 floors, the adjusted growth figures have removed
data of listed subsidiaries which are consolidated into financial statements of listed parent companies in the same sector

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As we mentioned in the FiinPro Data Digest # 2, the picture of profit quality is clearer when we look at the growth of earnings before interest and
taxes (EBIT) and Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, amortization, and restructuring or rent costs (EBITDA):
EBIT and EBITDA growth were negative 44.7% and negative 26.1%, respectively. Both of the indicators have been in the down trend since the
peak in Q3-2017. It should be noted that they recorded negative growth from Q2-2019, well before the Covid-19 epidemic.
The sectors with the sharpest YoY decline in EBIT were Oil & Gas (-263.1%), Travel & Leisure (-171.8%) and Real Estate (-104.9%). Oil & Gas
is the story of oil prices, Travel & Leisure is hit directly by Covid-19 and Real Estate is the story of demand decline and credit tightening.
On the other side, there are still many sectors with double digit EBIT growth such as Basic Resources (+30.8%), Telecommunications (+43.0%),
Health Care (Pharmaceuticals) (+18,1%), Technology (+14.7%) and Retail (+14.7%). The EBITDA growth of these sectors moved in the same
patterns.
Along with the decline in EBIT and EBITDA growth, EBIT and EBITDA margin also plummeted and this downtrend was seen from Q1-2018.
EBIT margin decreased from 8.4% in Q4-2019 to 5.7%in Q1-2020. The same EBITDA margin decreased from 13.4% in Q4-2019 to 10.8% in
Q1-2020.
Earnings quality also fell sharply in Q1/2020 as a result of Covid 19 impacts
Figure 3: (YoY) Quarterly EBIT (adjusted) Growth Figure 4: (YoY) Quarterly EBITDA (adjusted) Growth
-6.5%
-44.7%
8.3%
5.8%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
EBITMargin
EBITgrowth
EBIT Growth EBIT Margin
-2.5%
-26.1%
13.3%
10.9%
-3%
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
15%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
EBITDAMargin
EBITDAGrowth
EBITDA Growth EBITDA Margin

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Consumption during Covid-19 lockdown supported resilient and defensive sectors in Q1/2020
Note: The aggregated data from 999 listed non-financial enterprises accounts for 97.6% of the non-financial enterprises' capitalization on 3 floors, the adjusted growth figures have
removed data of listed subsidiaries which are consolidated into financial statements of listed parent companies in the same sector
Figure 6: Sectors with highest YoY Revenue growthFigure 5: Sectors with highest YoY Revenue increase by VND Billion
6/16 sectors recorded YoY net revenue increase in Q1-2020 including:
 Food & Beverage is double hit by the Covid-19 epidemic and the Government's Decree No 100/2019/ND-CP, net revenue increased by VND
6.4 trillion coming from MSN, mainly due to the acquisition of Vincommerce of VinGroup. Excluding MSN, the sector's net revenue dropped by
VND 3.1 trillion. All beer and beverage businesses saw a sharp YoY decrease in net revenue, SAB recorded the sharpest fall of VND4.4 trillion
equivalent to 47.4% (YoY).
 Retail: The sector's net revenue increased by VND 6.3 trillion of which VND4.3 trillion was from MWG. In Q1-2020, MWG’s net revenue rose by
by double digits, up 17.3% YoY thanks to consumer goods stockpiles and higher demand for a number of electronics items such as laptops
during the social distancing lockdown. The impact of Covid-19 on this sector will be clearer in the second quarter.
 Basic resources grew by 3.2%, the lowest Q1 growth level since 2015 as steel enterprises recorded declining revenues in the context of the
gloomy real estate market.
 Health: Q1-202 growth was highest for the same period in the last three years mainly due to higher need to store and use immune-boosting
products and symptomatic medicines (colds, fevers, coughs). Top 5 leading enterprises (VMD, DVN, DHG, DP1, DHT) all recorded higher
revenue.
 Technology was one of the few sectors which were not affected much by Covid-19. The largest representative of this sector is FPT with
revenue growth of 17%, largely thanks to Software exports (usually contracts were signed in previous quarters) and the Telecom segment.
 Telecommunications: All 4 Telecommunication companies had double digit revenue growth thanks to digital transformation and the increasing
demand for online work/ entertainment during Covid-19 lockdown. Of which, FOX, accounting for 97% of market capitalization, rose up 12.3%.
727.1
1,476.5
1,498.4
2,216.9
6,327.9
6,377.8
Technology
Health Care
Telecommunications
Basic Resources
Retail
Food & Beverage
(adjusted)
3.2%
7.7%
8.7%
9.5%
16.0%
22.9%
Basic Resources
Technology
Food & Beverage (adjusted)
Health Care
Retail
Telecommunications

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Top revenue-declining sectors in Q1-2020
Figure 8: Sectors with highest YoY Revenue fall (%)
 Travel and Leisure, including aviation companies, was hardest hit by the Covid-19 epidemic, the sector's net revenue dropped by VND
14.3 trillion, or 30.7% YoY, mainly due to HVN (-26.3%), VJC (-47%) and VTR (-3.7%).
 Real estate: net revenue in Q1-2020 decreased by 13.1 trillion YoY. As many as 47/90 (more than 50%) of real estate businesses
recorded a decline in net revenue including VIC (-29,6%), NVL (-80.6%) and PDR (-63.1%). On the other side, FLC and IJC saw a sharp
increase in Q1-2020 net revenue, up VND1.7 trillion and 1.1 trillion, respectively.
 Oil and gas: net revenue fell by VND 7.5 trillion or 8.5% YoY mainly due to BSR (-22.0%), PLX (-8.3%) and PVS (-20.8%), ranking 3rd
biggest decliner in net revenue due to double hit of falling oil prices and decline in demand. Downstream enterprises such BSR was hit
directly with revenue down by VND5.1 trillion while upstream companies like PVS saw its net revenue fell by VND3.5 trillion.
 Construction & Materials (-9.8%): mainly including VCG (-39.8%), CII (-17.6%) and CTD (-16.4%).
 Chemicals (-13.2%): Mainly due to GVR (-19.6%), DCM (-6.9%) and AAA (-39.8%).
Figure 7: Sectors with highest YoY Revenue fall (VND Bn)
(298.8)
(303.1)
(635.1)
(1,020.7)
(1,095.8)
(3,114.1)
(5,209.3)
(7,503.4)
(13,116.1)
(14,322.1)
Utilities
Media
Industrial Goods & Services
Personal & Household Goods
Automobiles & Parts
Chemicals
Construction & Materials
Oil & Gas
Real Estate (adjusted)
Travel & Leisure
-0.6%
-1.5%
-3.9%
-8.5%
-9.8%
-11.1%
-13.2%
-18.2%
-24.1%
-30.7%
0Utilities
Oil & Gas
Automobiles & Parts
Chemicals
Media
Travel & Leisure
Total net revenue
growth: -4.4%

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Profit after tax decline in Q1-2020 follows a similar pattern to revenue
Figure 9: YoY Profit After Tax Growth by Sector in Q1-2020 Basic Resources, Telecommunications, Technology and Health Care
(Pharmaceuticals) were the four sectors booking double-digit profit
after tax growth; in which Basic resources was the leader in PAT
growth rate, up 28.3% YoY mostly thanks to HPG (although it is a
multi-sector enterprise but we are classified in this sector as steel
production brings the biggest revenue) with net revenue and profit
increase of nearly 30% YoY. HPG contributed 88.5% to the total net
profit of the sector thanks to higher Export to China and Japan in Q1-
2020.
 Sharpest PAT decliners were 1. Oil & Gas (-303.4 %%, in which OIL
(-1,507.8%), BSR (-492.7%) and PLX ( -240.1%)); 2. Travel and
Leisure (-211.9 %%, due to HVN (-315.4%) and VJC (-167.6%); 3.
Real estate (-81.2%), mainly due to VIC (-50.0%), DXG (-77.6%) and
BCM (-45.8%)); and 4. Utilities (-41.1%, mainly influenced by POW (
-44.9%), GAS (-23.3%) and PPC (-44.3%)) and some other
companies in the Hydropower sector).
 Food & Beverage: while net revenue still increased by 8.7%, net
profit after tax dropped by 32.9% (after removing subsidiaries of
listed companies in this sector). This difference was due to the
consolidated revenue of Vincommerce into MSN in 2019. If we
remove MSN to avoid data jamming, the Food & Beverage sector net
profit after tax fell 12.6% in Q1-2020 which was dragged by beer
sector with all companies recording negative growth in Q1-2020,
including SAB (-44.4%), SMB (-53.9 %).
 Real estate: PAT growth in Q1-2020 was negative 81.2% YoY
(accounting number before adjusting was +17.3%), this is the record
decline in the last 5 years since 2015. We have removed subsidiaries
which was consolidated into the parent companies in the same
sector such as VHM and VRE, VIC.
Note: The aggregated data from 999 listed non-financial enterprises accounts for 97.6% of
the non-financial enterprises' capitalization on 3 floors, the adjusted growth figures have
removed data of listed subsidiaries which are consolidated into financial statements of listed
parent companies in the same sector
-303.4%
-211.9%
-81.2%
-41.1%
-38.5%
-37.6%
-32.6%
-17.8%
-16.8%
-15.7%
2.4%
6.3%
10.8%
14.0%
25.4%
227.0%
Oil & Gas
Travel & Leisure
Utilities
Media
Chemicals
Food & Beverage
Retail
Automobiles & Parts
Health Care
Technology
Basic Resources
Telecommunications
Total PAT
growth: -57.8%

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Several sectors posted double-digit EBIT growth!
Figure 10: Q1-2020 YoY EBIT growth by sectorIn Q1-2020, EBIT of the whole market decreased by VND 23.5
trillion (excluding subsidiaries which are consolidated into the listed
parent companies). Accordingly, EBIT in Q1-2020 posted a
negative growth of 44.7% YoY (adjusted number), this was the
lowest level since 2015 and the third consecutive quarter of EBIT
negative growth.
Travel and Leisure, Oil & Gas and Real Estate were the three
sectors with the sharpest YoY EBIT declines; In the opposite
direction, basic resources, Retail and Technology were 3 sectors
with the highest YoY EBIT increase.
Real Estate sector: EBIT of the sector dropped by over VND5
trillion, or 104.9% YoY. As mentioned, the reason for the sharp
decline in EBIT despite higher profit was that the EBIT formula did
not take financial income including VHM’s VND 7.5 trillion in Q1-
2020 into account.
Highest EBIT increase was Basic Resources (+VND 1258.9
billion or 30.8%YoY thanks to good results from HPG and Retail
(+VND 241.7 billion or 14.7% YoY).
Information technology: The sector EBIT increased by VND160.6
billion, or 14.7% YoY, mainly from FPT with an increase of VND
225.3 billion. FPT's quarterly YoY EBIT growth has been stable at
a double-digit since Q1-2019.
Note: EBIT = Gross profit -Selling expenses -General and administrative expenses +Profits/losses from affiliated companies is an indicator
reflecting the core business situation of the company. Therefore financial income including transfer of shares is not reflected in this ratio. See
also the Methodology (page 62).
-263.1%
-171.8%
-104.9%
-36.6%
-29.3%
-20.0%
-19.7%
-18.5%
-12.2%
-4.5%
14.7%
14.7%
17.6%
18.1%
30.8%
43.0%
Oil & Gas
Travel & Leisure
Chemicals
Media
Utilities
Retail
Technology
Automobiles & Parts
Health Care
Basic Resources
Telecommunications
Total EBIT growth: -
44,7%

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And some sectors also recorded double-digit EBITDA growth!
Figure 11: YoY EBITDA Growth by sector
Note: EBITDA = EBIT +Interest. See also the Methodology (page 62).
 Sectors with positive EBITDA growth in Q1-2020 were:
Retail (19.6%), Technology (14.2%), HealthCare
(10.7%), Cars & spare parts (14.3%) and
Telecommunications (20.3%).
 Particularly, the Basic Resources sector saw EBITDA
grow by 30.2% after 6 consecutive quarters of negative
growth from Q3-2018 to Q4-2019.
 Sectors with sharpest EBITDA decline in Q1-2020 were:
Travel and Leisure (down 125.3%), Oil & Gas (down
162.3%) and Real estate (down 27.7%). Notably, the
EBITDA of Communications sector has been negative
for the fifth quarter in a row and EBITDA of Chemicals
sector remained negative for the fourth straight quarter.
-162.3%
-125.1%
-51.2%
-20.0%
-16.8%
-13.5%
-12.8%
-9.2%
-9.0%
-6.5%
10.7%
14.3%
14.3%
19.4%
25.9%
28.3%
Oil & Gas
Travel & Leisure
Media
Chemicals
Utilities
Health Care
Technology
Automobiles & Parts
Retail
Telecommunications
Basic Resources
Total EBITDA
growth: -26,1%

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Despite the declining earnings quality, financial leverage increased slightly
1.2. Debts and Interest Coverage Ratio
Figure 12: Debt to Equity ratio, Debt to Total assets ratio Figure 13: Top 10 sectors with biggest debts (trillion VND)
Source: FiinPro Platform
Note: Data was collected from Financial Statements as of 31/03/2020 of 999
non-financial companies on 3 exchanges. Debts = short-term debts +long term
debts
Note: Data was collected from Financial Statements as of 31/03/2020 of 999
non-financial companies on 3 exchanges. Debts = short-term debts +long term
debts
 The debt to equity ratio (D/E) tended to decrease in recent
years, reaching the lowest level in Q3-2019 but showed
signs of strong rebound in the last two quarters. The
average D/E ratio of the whole market increased from 0.68
in Q4-2019 to 0.7 at the end of Q1-2020.
 The three sectors with the highest D/E ratio are Travel and
Leisure (1.24), Construction & materials (1.08) and Basic
resources (1.06).
 In our opinion, due to Cash flows from operating activities
and Interest Coverage Ratio weakened therefore companies
had to borrow more to maintain their operations.
 In terms of absolute debt balance, the total outstanding debt of
these 999 listed companies was VND1,030 trillion, of which
Real Estate, Construction & Materials, Food & Beverage were
the biggest borrowers.
 Compared to total outstanding loans of the whole banking
system (about VND8,300 trillion), listed enterprises only
accounted for 12.4%.
0.66
0.70
0.29
0.31
0.25
0.27
0.29
0.31
0.33
0.35
0.37
0.65
0.70
0.75
0.80
0.85
0.90
0.95
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
D/A
D/E
Debts/Owner's Equity Debts/Total asset
267.4
166.9
142.9 132.2 126.6
79.8
53.0 44.4 37.3 33.8
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
trnVND
Total debts: 1,030 trillion VND

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Interest Coverage Ratio of Non-financial companies fell sharply in Q1-2020
Figure 14: YoY EBIT Change and Interest Coverage Ratio Figure 15: Sectors with sharpest EBIT decline
Source: FiinPro Platform Source: FiinPro Platform
 Overall EBIT has not increased strongly since Q3/2018 (not as
strongly as it did in 2017 and the first half of 2018) and started to
see YoY in 2019 before plunging in Q1-2020. Along with that,
interest coverage ratio (ICR) also declined continuously in recent
quarters.
 This fact is alarming for corporate liquidity risk whose level will
depend on how sharp decline in Q2-2020 will be and the
prospect of growth in the remaining quarters of 2020.
 In Q1-2020, besides Oil & Gas and Travel & Leisure sectors
reporting losses, 9/14 sectors saw their Interest Coverage Ratio
decline.
 In particular, real estate’s Interest Coverage Ratio fell from 1.4 in
Q4-2019 to -0.4 in Q1-2020, ie profit from core business activities
was not enough to pay interest for banks. Some companies had
the ratio under 1 such as VHM (0.27), VRE (0.1), KDH (0.12) and
PDR (0.52).
 On the other hand, Technology had the highest ICR of 9.7 (FPT
(11.3), CMG (7.0)); followed by Health Care/Pharmaceuticals at
8.8 (DHG (53.5), PME (215.8) and IMP (57.0)).
Đơn vị tính: Nghìn tỷ VND
3.6
3.0
2.0
-
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Interestcoverageratio
EBITchange(trnVND)
EBIT change Interest Coverage Ratio
(20.5)
(69.0)
(645.9)
(793.4)
(780.5)
(1,605.9)
(1,777.3)
(3,625.3)
(6,692.0)
(7,575.4)
Utilities
Food & Beverage
Retail
Technology
Automobiles & Parts
Basic Resources
Telecommunications

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Debts rose sharply compared with Revenue and EBITDA!
Figure 16: Debt/Net Revenue and Debt/EBITDA ratios
 Sharp decline of net revenue and EBITDA in Q1-2020 resulted
in strong increase in Debt/Net Revenue and Debt/EBITDA to 2.0
and 19.6, respectively.
 The ratio of Real Estate Debt/EBITDA increased sharply from
12.6x in Q4-2019 to 43.9x in Q1-2020, followed by Construction &
Materials with 12.6x.
 Despite uptrend in most sectors, this ratio decreased slightly in
Basic Resources (from 16.8x in Q4-2019 to 14.4x in Q1-2020)
and Retail (from 12.7x in Q4-2019 to 9.0x in Q1-2020) thanks to
the improvement of HPG and MWG’s business as mentioned in
the previous sections.
Figure 17: Debt/EBITDA ratio of Real estate and
1.97
12.24
19.33
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
0.5
0.7
0.9
1.1
1.3
1.5
1.7
1.9
2.1
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Debts/EBITDA
Debts/Netrevenue
Debts/Net Revenue Debts/EBITDA
12.6
44.0
17.5
25.2
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Real Estate Construction & Materials

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Cash flow from operating activities (CFO) in Q1-2020 turned negative for the first time in many years!
1.3. Cash Flow Quality
Figure 18: Quarterly Cash Flow of the Whole market
(Unit: VND Trillion)
Nguồn: FiinPro Platform
Figure 19: Sectors with negative CFO in Q1-2020
(Unit: VND Trillion)
)
Nguồn: FiinPro Platform
 Q1-2020 is the first time since 2015 that cash flow from operating
activities (CFO) has been a negative number, -VND 26.0 trillion.
Real estate saw the biggest drop in CFO, -VND12.2 trillion;
followed by Oil & Gas and Travel and Leisure with corresponding
numbers of -VND7.2 trillion and -VND6.6 trillion.
 The cash flow of real estate companies that we observed is often
unstable or does not have a clear trend (viewed quarterly). Oil and
Gas, Travel and Leisure and Industrial Goods & Services are
sectors that are directly affected by the pandemic (see next page).
 Food & Beverage sector has had negative CFO for the first time
since 2015, mainly dragged by SAB (-VND 1.1 trillion), ASM (-
VND 1 trillion), IDI (-516 billion dong); ASM and IDI are two big
seafood exporters who have encountered output difficulties during
the recent epidemic.
 Another observation is that the cash flow from investing (CFI)
shrank. While enterprises spent VND51.8 trillion and VND62.9
trillion for investment activities in Q1-2018 and Q1-2019,
respectively, this figure dropped to VND37.7 trillion in Q1-2020
(down 40%YoY), the lowest level in the last 3 years. This is a sign
that businesses are suspending investment activities to ensure the
stable and safe cash flow for business operations in the context of
the epidemic.
(80)
(60)
(40)
(20)
0
20
40
60
80
100
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
CFO CFF CFI
(0.1)
(0.1)
(0.1)
(0.3)
(0.3)
(0.7)
(2.1)
(4.3)
(6.6)
(7.2)
(12.2)
Basic Resources
Food & Beverage
Media
Technology
Automobiles & Parts
Chemicals
Travel & Leisure
Oil & Gas

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Working capital turnover ratios tended to increase but still at low level compared to the peak of the previous
downturn
1.3. Cash Flow Quality
Figure 20: Real Estate sector’s Average Age of Inventory
Note: Data was collected from 90 companies listed on 3 exchanges as of end Q1-2020. For Real Estate, Receivables includes Short-term receivables from
customers 'and' 'Receivables according to construction contract progress'.
 Looking back to 2011-2013 period, many segments of the real estate sector in Vietnam were mainly due to oversupply and lack of
demand in that period, the situation was only removed when the government had a stimulus package of VND30 trillion to support
low-income people to buy houses.
 From the data analysis perspective, we see that the number of days of cash turnover days in the Real Estate sector from 2018-2019
tends to increase, which is an important indicator of the sector in the coming period.
Figure 21: Days sales outstanding (DSO) and Days payable
outstanding (DPO) of Real Estate sector
4,043.2
470.4
740.2
913.7
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
Days of inventory on hand
271.9
57.2 69.0
129.8
53.2
86.9
106.6
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Days of sales outstanding Days of payables outstanding

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Part 2: Banking Performance
This section reflects Figure of the Banking sector, which includes all 18 listed banks, accounting for 62.9% of
the system's total outstanding loans. For Banking, besides comparing with the same period last year (YoY)
as done with non-financial companies, we also compared with the adjacent quarter (QoQ), due to the less
seasonal characteristics of banking business.
In order to ensure the consistence of data coverage, only listed companies were covered in this
report. Our FiinPro Platform currently provides data on both listed and unlisted companies. Please
trial our FiinPro Platform for better experience or contact our Customers Support to have further
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In Q1-2020, Banking recorded a 3.4% increase in profit after tax compared to the same period last year but
decreased by 11.5% compared to the preceding quarter.
2.1 Credit growth and NIM
Figure 22: Profit after tax (PAT) growth Figure 23: Net interest margin (NIM) and NIM Change (QoQ)
Note: Calculated from data of 18 listed banks with total outstanding loans of
VND5,219 trillion, accounting for 62.9% of the system’s loans.
VND5,219 trillion, accounting for 62.9% of the system’s loans.
.
 Net interest margin (NIM) of 18 listed banks fell slightly by 1.1 basis
points (bps) compared to Q4-2019 to 0.87%.
 Some banks, mainly small, saw a good improvement in NIM in Q1-
2020 including KLB (0.26% to 0.62%) and STB (0.45% to 0.72%)
while some banks had NIM dropping considerably like NVB (0.74%
to 0.38%) and SHB (0.77% to 0.51%).
 The highest NIM still belonged to banks with large consumer
finance lending segment such as VPB (2.27%), HDB (1.37%) and
MBB (1.22%). However, all these banks had lower NIM compared
to Q4-2019, in which VPB had the largest decrease of 11.9 bps,
followed by MBB with 6.8 bps and HDB with 2.7 bps.
 In Q1-2020, profit after tax (PAT) of 18 listed banks fell by 11.5%
compared to Q4-2019. This is the largest decrease since Q2-
2018, but not on the basis of the high growth of the previous
quarters as Q2-2018 and only up 3.4% YoY while Q2-2018
witnessed growth by 49.6% YoY.
 Lending to customers at the end of Q1-2020 of 18 listed banks
only grew by 1%, much lower than the same period in the last
two years (4.2% in Q1-2018, 3.4% in Q1-2019) and lower
compared with the average of the whole sector in the first 3
months of 2020 (1.3%).
 The growth rate of 1.3% of the whole sector showed some
recovery as credit only grew 0.17% the first two months.
However, the credit growth was 1.42% by end of April but
dropped to 1.2% by mid-May.
Decreased after 3 quarters of high
growth at 25.6%, 16.2% and 17.5%;
grew 49.6% YoY
17.5%
-12.7%
19.0%
-11.5%
49.6%
12.0%
3.4%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2017 2018 2019 2020
PAT growth (QoQ) PAT growth (YoY)
(2.1)
(0.1)
1.3
(6.0)
9.7
1.7 1.1
(0.5)
(1.1)
0.81%
0.86%
0.87%
-8.0
-4.0
0.0
4.0
8.0
12.0
0.65%
0.70%
0.75%
0.80%
0.85%
0.90%
Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2017 2018 2019 2020
basispoint(bps)
NIM change (bps) NIM

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2.1 Credit growth and NIM
Not only corporate lending but also personal credit also slowed down in the first quarter of 2020!
Figure 24: Credit growth structure
 In 2019, although still the main driver of growth, personal
credit growth continued to decline to 22.6% from 23.7% in
2018 while corporate credit growth surged again to 11%
from 7.6% in 2018.
 The data on corporate and personal outstanding loans was
not fully disclosed by banks in Q1-2020 but based on 5
banks with notes in their financial statements (VPB, VIB,
MBB, SHB, KLB), the growth of personal loans decreased
from 2.6% in Q3-2019 and 3.4% in Q4-2019 to 0% in Q1-
2020.
Note: Calculated on data of 16 listed banks (excluding NVB, BAB due to lack of disclosure
of full information in their financial statements)
Figure 25: Accrued interest and fee receivables/Net interest income
VND5,219 trillion, accounting for 62.9% of the system’s loans
 In order to monitor the quality of the bank's credit income, we
tracked the rate of Accrued interest and fee receivables over Net
interest income. This figure rebounded in Q1-2020 at 168.1%,
indicating that the quality of interest income of banks is showing
signs of slowing down.
 Moreover, according to Circular 01/2020/TT-NHNN of the State
Bank of Vietnam, the interest receivables on the outstanding loans
with repayment restructured, interest rates exempted or reduced
and debt group maintained as standard (Group 1) in accordance
with the Circular, from the date of restructuring, banks are not
required to account income (accruals) but put off-balance sheet to
urge collection, and account into income upon receipt. Thus,
without debt structuring, this ratio may be even higher.
32.5%
23.7%
22.6%
13.7%
7.6%
11.0%
20.0%
13.5%
15.6%
1.1%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
2017 2018 2019 Q1-2020
Personal lending Corporate lending Total outstanding loans
214.6%
178.8%
157.9%
168.1%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
100
102
Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2017 2018 2019 2020
VNDtrillion
Lãi và phí dự thu % thu nhập lãi thuần

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2.2 Change in income structure
Net interest income rose by 13.6% YoY but only by 0.4% QoQ.
Note: Calculated from data of 18 listed banks with total outstanding loans of VND5,219 trillion, accounting for 62.9% of the system’s loans.
Figure 26: Net interest income growth
 With a low credit growth and a slight decrease in NIM, net interest income of 18 listed banks edged up by only 0.4% compared to Q4-2019.
Some banks still have high growth of net interest income compared to Q4-2019 such as KLB (60.9%), STB (37.5%), TPB (13%) or
relatively high like TCB (7.3%), VIB (6.9%), EIB (6.9%). On the contrary, some banks saw a sharp drop in net interest income such as NVB
(-92.3%), SHB (-47.4%), BAB (-21.8%), VBB (-11.3%).
 However, compared to Q1-2019, net interest income of banks grew by 13.6%. Except for VBB, which saw lower net interest income over
the same period (-3.8%), all other banks recorded growth, in which some banks had high growth rates such as HDB (42.1%), NVB (35.7%),
VIB (29.9%), SHB (24.5%), TCB (22.8%), ACB (19.7%), VPB (18.2%).
 Compared to Q1-2018 and Q1-2019, net interest income growth of banks in Q1-2020 was lower than both the same period and the
previous quarter.
1.7%
15.7%
0.4%
25.1%
16.6%
13.6%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2017 2018 2019 2020
Net interest income growth (QoQ) Net interest income growth (YoY)

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Net fee and commission income rose by 11.4% YoY but fell by 21.6% QoQ.
Note: Calculated from data of 18 listed banks with total outstanding loans of VND5,219 trillion, accounting for 62.9% of the system’s loans
 Compared to Q4-2019, net fee and commision income dropped by 21.6%. In Q1-2020, except for three banks that recorded growth,
including VCB (27.2%), CTG (5%) and BAB (1.7%), or slightly decreased like HDB (-1.6%), the remaining banks saw net fee and
commision income sharply decreased.
 In addition to banks cutting their fees to share the difficulties caused by Covid-19 pandemic, it can be seen that it was also the trend in the
previous two years when this income decreased in Q1 after a sharp increase in Q4. The two banks that contributed the most to this trend
were TCB and STB, when net fee and commision income soared in Q4 and plummeted in Q1.
 However, compared to Q1-2019, net fee and commision income still increased by 11.4%, the lowest YoY growth rate from Q1-2018. Some
banks recorded high growth rates such as LPB (174.7%), NVB (146.4%), VBB (96.8%), TCB (73.1%), BID (23.9%) , VIB (18.2%), while
some banks experienced a decline in income such as BAB (-77.3%), TPB (-27.6%), SHB (-10.9%), VPB (-6.7%), EIB (-5%).
TCB, STB up by 249.1% and 191.8% to VND
2,247 billion and VND 1,319 billion respectively,
accounting for 49% of total net fee and commision
income of 18 banks
TCB, STB down by
78.1% and 59.1%
TCB, SHB, STB down by 65%,
73.6% and 47.2% after up by
52.6%, 677% và 47.2% in Q4-2018
Figure 27: Net fee and commission income growth
TCB, STB, VPB down by
36.8%, 39.5% và 32.2% after
up by 84.7%, 59.5% và 45% in
Q4-2019.-34.2%
-14.8%
-21.6%
26.6%
46.2%
11.4%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2017 2018 2019 2020
Net fee and commission income growth (QoQ) Net fee and commission income growth (YoY)

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Net income from remaining activities (trading and investment securities, foreign currency trading, etc.)
increased by 32.4% YoY but decreased by 24.6% QoQ.
Figure 28: Growth of net income from remaining activities (QoQ)
 The remaining activities we combine includes income from foreign currency trading, trading and investment securities, capital
contribution/equity investment and other activities.
 In Q1-2020, net income from remaining activities fell by 24.6% compared to Q4-2019. Banks with high growth of net income
from other activities included KLB (100.1%), VCB (86%), CTG (38.4%) and VPB (27.8%). In addition, except for VIB and VBB
with slight growth, other banks experienced sharp declines compared to Q4-2019.
 However, compared to Q1-2019, net income from remaining activities grew by 32.4%. Some banks enjoyed very high growth
rates such as KLB (1,180.9%), VBB (446.4%), VPB (175%), ACB (124.3%), CTG (69.3%), MBB (60.2%), TPB (34.3%), while
some banks saw big drops like VIB (-365.2%), HDB (-62.9%), LPB (-40, 9%), STB (-27.1%), SHB (-15.7%).
VCB, VPB, TCB down
by 43.5%, 69.7% and
50.3% with a total
decrease of VND3,940
billion
VPB, ACB, VIB down
by 76.7%, 67.4% and
105.3% with a total
decrease of VND
2,333 billion
-33.2%
-27.6%
-24.6%
21.0%
-34.0%
32.4%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2017 2018 2019 2020
Growth of net income from remaining activities (QoQ) Growth of net income from remaining activities (YoY)

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Net interest income still accounted for 78% of banks’ income structure!
 In Q1-2020, net interest income accounted for 78% of total operating income; while net fee and commission income and net income from
remaining activities accounted for 9.8% and 12.2% respectively, down from 11.8% and 15.2% in Q4-2019 respectively.
 In the remaining activities, the proportion of net gain from securities (including trading securities and investment securities) jumped from
19.7% to 33.8%, while interest from other activities plummeted from 60% to 38%. Especially compared to Q1-2019, the proportion of net
gain from securities increased 2.46 times. In terms of growth, net gain from securities rose by 29.3% compared to Q4-2019. Compared to
Q1-2019, this figure is even 225.9%.
 Despite low growth in credit, with a modest reduction of NIM at 1.1 basis points, it can be said that net interest income of banks in Q1-
2020 has not been much affected by the interest rate exemption and reduction for customers affected by Covid-19. From January 23
(when epidemic was declared) to March 28, 2020, the banking sector exempted and reduced interest for outstanding loans in total of
VND91 trillion. This impact will be significantly larger from Q2-2020, when by May 11, 2020 this figure was nearly VND1,128 trillion. New
loans with preferential interest rates also reached more than VND 639 trillion with interest rates lower by 0.5-2.5% compared to the pre-
epidemic period.
 The proportion of net fee and commission income was at its lowest level from Q3-2018 and is expected to continue to be affected in the
next quarters. As of April 2, 2020, banks had two times of fee exemption and reduction valued at about VND560 billion; by the end of
2020, the number will be about VND1,004 billion.
Figure 29: Income structure
Figure 30: Structure of net income from remaining activities
79.3% 77.6% 77.5% 73.1% 78.0%
10.2% 11.0% 10.2%
11.8%
9.8%
10.6% 11.4% 12.3% 15.2% 12.2%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2019 2020
Net interest income Net fee and commission income
Net income from remaining activities
28.2% 26.4% 23.5% 18.6%
26.0%
13.7%
8.0%
23.0%
19.7%
33.8%
55.3%
58.1%
51.0%
60.0%
38.0%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2019 2020
Forex trading Securities Other activities Capital contribution/equity investment

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In Q1-2020, net gain from securities rose in the context of low government bond yields.
Note: Portfolio includes investment securities and trading securities
Calculated from data of 18 listed banks with total outstanding loans of
VND5,219 trillion, accounting for 62.9% of the system’s loans
Figure 31: Value of securities portfolio (VND trillion)
 In Q1-2020, net gain from securities of banks increased in the
context of low government bond yields.
 Compared to the end of 2019, the value of the securities
portfolio (excluding provisions) of 18 listed banks rose by 8.5%.
This took place in the context of low credit growth and not
stressful dong liquidity (as shown by interbank interest rates in
Figure 37) despite a slight decline in customer deposits.
Figure 32: Bond portfolio of banks
Note: Calculated from data of 17 listed banks (excluding NVB due to not
disclosing notes of financial statements Q1-2020)
 In Q1-2020, the value of government bond portfolio held by
banks rose by 6.4% while the value of the bond portfolio of
other credit institutions fell by 8.9%.
 The portfolio value of bonds of economic organizations
increased by 31.3%. This explains the rise in banks’ net gain
from securities because these bonds carry high interest rates.
CTG, the bank switched from a loss of VND518 billion from
securities in Q4-2019 to a profit of VND428 billion in Q1-2020,
had total bond portfolio value slipped by 4.2% but the portfolio
value of bonds of economic organizations jumped by 48.1%.
1084.0
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
850
900
950
1000
1050
1100
VNDtrillion
Value of securities portfolio (VND trillion) 1-year G-bond yield
571
254
138
608
232
182
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Government bonds Bonds of other credit
institutions
Bonds of economic
organizations
VNDtrillion
Q4-2019 Q1-2020

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2.3 Asset quality under the impact of Covid-19
The NPL ratio edged up slightly compared to the end of 2019 but did not fully reflect the impact of
Covid-19 under new regulations of the State Bank of Vietnam.
Figure 33: Non-performing loan (NPL) ratio
Note: NPL is equal to the total of loans Group 3–5 over loans to customers. Calculated
from data of 16 listed banks (excluding NVB, VBB due to lack disclosure of full data)
Figure 34: NPL formation rate (QoQ)
Note: Calculated from data of 16 listed banks (excluding NVB, VBB due to lack
disclosure of full data in some quarters)
 In Q1-2020, NPL formation rate of 16 listed banks was 0.23%,
increasing sharply compared to the previous 7 quarters to be
equivalent to Q1-2018. NPL formation rate is calculated by change
in total debts of Group 3–5 in the quarter divided by the average
outstanding loans in the quarter.
 According to Circular 01/2020/TT-NHNN, banks may decide to
restructure loan repayment terms and maintain the borrowers
grading category affected by Covid-19. From January 23 to March
28, 2020, banks restructured the repayment terms for over 12,000
customers with total outstanding loans of VND13.5 trillion.
Therefore, without this restructuring, the NPL formation rate in Q1-
2020 will be higher. This will be similar in the following quarters,
when total restructured outstanding loans were at nearly VND138
trillion as of May 11, 2020.
 In Q1-2020, the NPL ratio of 16 listed banks edged up to 1.65%
from 1.44% at the end of Q4-2019. 6/18 listed banks disclosed
VAMC bonds with total outstanding debts of more than VND4.85
trillion, down from VND6 trillion at the end of Q4-2019. This
decrease is due to EIB's reduction of VAMC outstanding debts
from VND4.43 trillion to VND3.28 trillion. The remaining banks
are HDB, BAB, LPB, VBB, and VIB.
 In addition, some listed banks disclosed VAMC outstanding
loans at the end of 2019 but didn’t note in Q1-2020. Except for
BID that announced VAMC debt clearance in March 2020, the
remaining banks as of the end of 2019 still had relatively large
debts: STB (VND33.65 trillion), CTG (VND12.78 trillion), SHB
(VND4.5 trillion).
1.44%
1.65%
1.2%
1.3%
1.4%
1.5%
1.6%
1.7%
1.8%
1.9%
Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2017 2018 2019 2020
-0.20%
0.22%
0.02%
0.14%
-0.13%
0.14%
0.06%
0.10%
-0.25%
0.23%
-0.3%
-0.2%
-0.1%
0.0%
0.1%
0.2%
0.3%
Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2017 2018 2019 2020

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2.3 Asset quality under the impact of Covid-19
According to the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV), by the end of Q1-2020, more than VND2,000 trillion
outstanding loans were estimated to be affected by Covid-19 pandemic.
Source: Compiled by FiinGroup from announcement of the SBV in Securities Investment Newspaper (https://tinnhanhchungkhoan.vn/ngan-
hang/2-trieu-ty-dong-du-no-ngan-hang-bi-anh-huong-boi-dich-linh-vuc-nao-chiem-ty-trong-lon-nhat-322499.html)
Figure 35: Outstanding loans affected by Covid-19 (end of March 2020)
 According to preliminary estimate and notice of the SBV, as of March 31, 2020, about VND 2.000 trillion of outstanding
loans were affected by Covid-19, accounting for about 23% of the total outstanding loans of the whole system. In
particular, minerals, fuels, building materials, automobiles and parts were the most affected (VND548 trillion, accounting
for 6.6% of total outstanding loans). This is followed by processing and manufacturing (VND520 trillion, accounting for
6.3% of total outstanding loans), including food and beverage processing, garment and textile, cement and wood
processing.
 Comparing these with performance and especially the decline of the main indicators of the ability to service debts such as
EBIT and EBITDA as well as the Interest coverage ratio, there were common sectors including: Travel & Leisure, Real
Estate, Construction & Materials. In addition, subsectors affected by export demand discruption such as Clothing &
Accessories and Fisheries are also among the affected sectors reflected by the decline in financial indicators and
performance that we have pointed out in Part 1 of this report.
86
104
137
193
Wood processing
Cement
Garment and textile
Food and beverage processing
VND trillion
30
45
110
139
145
157
169
260
520
548
Education
Mining
Transportation BOT, BT projects
Transportation
Real estate
Agriculture, forestry and fisheries
Accommodation, eating and travel services
Other activities
Manufacturing and processing
Minerals, fuels, buiding materials, automobiles & parts
VND trilion

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2.4 Capital structure and liquidity
Figure 36: LDR
Note: LDR is calculated by Loans to customers/Deposits from customers
Calculated from data of 18 listed banks with total outstanding loans of VND5,219
trillion, accounting for 62.9% of the system’s loans
Figure 37: Interbank rates
Loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR) has continuously risen from Q1-2019, while average interbank rate tends to
decrease.
 In Q1-2020, loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR) of 18 listed banks was at
95.7%, up 1% compared to the end of Q4-2019. The reason was
that credit grew by 1% but customer deposits slipped by 0.1%.
 LDR has continuously risen from Q1-2019 when credit growth
rates in all quarters were higher than deposit growth rates.
 According to Circular 22/2019/TT-NHNN, from January 1, 2020,
the maximum LDR is 85%. The LDR here does not coincide with
the LDR calculated in accordace with Circular 22; however, its
upward trend showed higher level of capital balance stress when
customers’ deposits declined.
 From the beginning of 2019, the average interbank rates tended
to decrease, proving that the pressure on liquidity did not
increase sharply despite the decrease in customer deposits.
 In 2020, except for the sudden peak in early April, the average
interbank interest rates also tend to decrease. This is quite
understandable when credit in January and February grew by
0.1% and 0.07% respectively and recovered in March with an
increase of 1.13%.
92.1%
91.5%
91.3%
93.5%
93.2%
93.6%
93.9% 93.9%
94.7%
95.7%
89%
90%
91%
92%
93%
94%
95%
96%
97%
Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2018 2019 2020
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
Overnight rate 1-week rate

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2.4 Capital structure and liquidity
 In 2019, liquidity risk was high when the ratio of medium and long-term loans was at 48.7% -49.1% while short-term capital sources
(less than one year) accounted for 80.1% -85.8 %.
 In Q1-2020, the lending structure of banks was almost unchanged compared to Q4-2019 with the ratio of medium-and long-term
loans accounting for 49%. The ratio of short-term capital also remained unchanged at 85.8%. However, the proportion of capital
source under 3 months decreased while capital source from 3 months-1 year increased.
 In Q1-2020, customer deposits of 18 listed banks declined by 0.1% while that of 14 banks in Figure 39 fell by 0.03%. The decline in
customer deposits in Q1-2020 may be due to the following reasons: (i) Cash withdrawals to invest in more attractive channels such
as bonds or securities; (ii) Enterprises and individuals withdrawed money to spend or to offset the liquidity shortage during the
pandemic, especially demand deposits, leading to a decrease in the share of capital source of less than 3 months; and (iii) Money
turnover decreased due to the decline of economic activities during the recent time of pandemic.
Figure 38: Lending structure by terms
Note: Calculated from data of 17 listed banks (excluding NVB due to not disclosing
Q1-2020 data)
Figure 39: Capital structure by terms
Note: Calculated from data of 14 listed banks (excluding EIB, KLB, SHB, NVB due to
not disclosing Q1-2020 data)
Lending structure was almost unchanged from end-2019; however, the proportion of deposits of less
than 3 months slightly decreased.
85,8%
51.3% 51.3% 50.9% 51.0% 51.0%
14.4% 14.1% 13.9% 13.9% 14.0%
34.3% 34.6% 35.1% 35.1% 35.0%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2019 2020
Short-term lending Medium-term lending Long-term lending
49.7% 51.3% 52.4% 53.9% 50.8%
30.4% 31.3% 33.3% 31.9% 34.9%
15.1% 12.5% 9.6% 9.3% 9.6%
4.8% 4.8% 4.7% 4.8% 4.6%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2019 2020
Under 3 months 3 months - 1 year 1 - 5 years Over 5 years

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Part 3: Sector Outlook Update 2020
This part aims to update the 2020 growth outlook for non-financial companies which are being listed on
HOSE, HNX and UPCOM by conducting data analysis on management estimates by sectors.
Data on management estimates were updated as of May 24, 2020. Accordingly, up to 426/1644 non-financial
companies have disclosed their own business plans for 2020 and these companies represent a combined
71% of market capitalization of the non-financial group on these bourses.
In order to ensure the consistence of data coverage, only listed companies were covered in this
report. Our FiinPro Platform currently provides data on both listed and unlisted companies. Please
trial our FiinPro Platform for better experience or contact our Customers Support to have further
updated data.

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3.1. Overview
Notes: Including only listed companies having 2020 business plans updated from their 2020 Annual Shareholders’ Meeting resolutions or 2019 Annual
Reports or analysis by securities companies (from March 1, 2020 onwards)
Table 1: Management estimates on revenue & profit growth in 2020
 As of 27/5/2020, there were 426/1644 non-financial companies having their 2020 business plans disclosed or updated, which account for 71%
of market capitalization of non-financial group. The revenue growth is expected to slow to 2.5% in 2020, but profits before tax and after tax are
likely to drop 17.8% and 12.1%, respectively. This could be the lowest growth rate in recent five years for revenues and the first decline in nine
years for profits, dampened by the spreading of Covid-19 which has been hurting demand in both foreign and domestic markets.
 In this report, we conduct analysis on growth prospect for certain sectors in which the number of companies having their 2020 business plans
disclosed account for over 70% of market capitalization of each sector, i.e. Real estate, Travel & Leisure, Food & Beverage, Retail and Oil &
Gas. Three more sectors are covered in the report even though the criteria on market capitalization (over 70% of the sector) was not fulfilled.
They are sectors with significant revenue and profit growth (Basic Resources); with possible revenue decline for 2nd consecutive year
(Personal & Household Goods); and possible decline in both revenue & profits (Utilities).
Sector
(ICB-2)
Companies with
2020 mgnt estimates
+/-Revenue
(YoY)
+/-Profit before tax (PBT)
(YoY)
+/-Profit after tax (PAT)
(YoY)
Outlook
No. of companies % marcap of Sector 2019 2020F 2019 2020F 2019 2020F 2020
% % % % % % %
Real estate 33/123 88.6% 9.7% 26.2% 28.1% -7.7% 37.8% 3.3% Detail
Food & Beverage 32/161 71.0% 3.1% 24.5% 9.5% -21.1% 7.6% -22.6% Detail
Industrial Goods & Services 65/299 50.8% 15.6% -4.4% 21.6% -59.2% 16.1% -52.2%
Utilities 48/140 69.4% 3.8% -4.0% 8.2% -35.8% 8.0% -35.9% Detail
Construction & Materials 100/380 56.1% 1.6% -7.5% -0.7% -6.5% 0.6% -9.0%
Basic Resources 37/118 65.5% 5.2% 13.3% -6.8% 15.6% -9.4% 35.1% Detail
Oil & Gas 3/11 78.7% -3.7% -13.1% -2.7% -36.2% -1.9% -35.0% Detail
Travel &Tourism 12/61 80.8% 0.5% -18.5% -8.1% -38.5% -18.4% -18.6% Detail
Telecommunications 3/8 99.2% 6.9% 14.3% 38.2% 11.8% 732.3% 75.4%
Chemicals 15/68 28.3% -2.9% 6.1% -23.7% 23.1% -24.9% 14.9%
Personal & Household Goods 22/93 52.1% -0.6% -9.1% 5.0% -24.1% 3.2% -11.8% Detail
Retail 10/32 85.4% 16.3% 4.4% 27.1% -28.7% 26.1% -8.8% Detail
Technology 5/32 82.6% 20.0% 14.7% 21.7% 17.7% 21.6% 18.0%
Health Care 17/58 63.5% 12.5% 0.1% -0.1% 2.9% -0.7% -0.1%
Media 16/45 18.9% -0.8% 8.7% -88.0% 717.0% -102.3% 4368.6%
Automobiles & Parts 5/15 19.8% 15.7% -35.4% -19.4% -13.4% -0.3% -12.7%
TOTAL 426/1644 71.0% 4.2% 2.5% 11.7% -17.8% 12.2% -12.1%
Management estimated a 2.5% revenue growth in 2020 despite negative impacts of Covid-19 pandemic. Profit
after tax, however, is forecast to decline 12.1%.

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Revenue and profit growth outlook in 2020 is mixed among sectors!
3.1. Overview (cont.)
Figure 40: 2020 revenue growth by management estimates
by sectors
 Real estate revenues are likely to increase 26.2% in 2020, taking
lead among sectors in terms of 2020 revenue growth as top
companies such as VHM and HDG have strong revenue and
profit growth plans.
 Food & Beverage ranks the second, with two leading companies
MSN and VNM registering two-digit revenue growth in 2020.
 As one of sectors being hardest hit by Covid-19 pandemic, Travel
& Leisure forecasts its 2020 revenues to drop 23.8% from 2019.
Followings are Oil & Gas (-13.1%) and Construction & Materials
(-7.5%).
 With an expected 17.7% profit growth, technology is likely to be the
top-performing sector in terms of profit before tax growth in 2020, led
by FPT whose profit before tax growth is forecast to slow to 18% in
2020 from 21% in 2019. Basic Resources is followed with a planned
profit growth of 15.6%, driven by the breakthrough of HPG with profit
before tax projected to grow 10% in 2020.
 Real estate, which is burdened by borrowing expenses with interest
coverage ratio of as low as 0.4 in Q1-2020, will see profit to fall 7.7%
in 2020 while almost all the other sectors forecast a two-digit decline. It
is noteworthy that Oil & Gas and Utilities forecast profits to fall 36.2%
and 35.8%, respectively, even though the 2020 plans of some biggest
companies in these sectors were based on an estimated oil price of
US$60/barrel (as seen in their Annual Shareholders Meeting
documents), doubling the current price level.
Including only non-financial sectors in which the number of companies having their
2020 business plans disclosed account for over 50% of market cap of each sector.
Figure 41: 2020 profits before tax growth by management estimates
by sectors
Including only non-financial sectors in which the number of companies having their
2020 business plans disclosed account for over 50% of market cap of each sector.
26.2%
24.5%
14.7%
14.3%
13.3%
4.4%
0.1%
-4.0%
-4.4%
-7.5%
-9.1%
-13.1%
-18.5%
-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30%
Real estate
Food & Beverage
Technology
Telecommunications
Basic Resources
Retail
Health care
Utility
Oil & Gas
Travel & Leisure
17.7%
15.6%
2.9%
-6.5%
-7.7%
-21.1%
-24.1%
-28.7%
-35.8%
-36.2%
-38.5%
-48.6%
-59.2%
-70%-60% -50%-40% -30%-20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30%
Technology
Basic Resources
Health care
Real estate
Food & Beverage
Retail
Utility
Oil & Gas
Travel & Leisure
Telecommunications

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9/14 sectors (ICB-Level 2) are forecast to DECELERATE!
The growth of a certain sector or a group of certain sectors is classified as ACCELERATE if the forecast growth rate exceeds the upper limit of
CARG in the most recent five years by +5% for revenue.
Table 2: Evaluating revenue growth prospect for 2020
DECELERATE
ACCELERATE
MAINTAIN The growth of a certain sector or a group of certain sectors is classified as MAINTAIN if the forecast growth rate is within the limit of CARG in the
most recent five years by +/-5% for revenue.
The growth of a certain sector or a group of certain sectors is classified as DECELERATE if the forecast growth rate is below the lower limit of
CARG in the most recent five years by -5% for revenue.
In FiinPro Data Digest #2, we conducted evaluation on growth prospect for 16 non-financial sectors (there are 19 supersectors partitioned
in ICB-Level 2 if Banks, Insurance and Financial Services are included). However, in FiinPro Data Digest #3, we evaluate growth prospect
for just 14/16 non-financial sectors in which the number of companies having their 2020 business plans disclosed account for over 70% of
market capitalization of each sector, with certain rules applicable for the evaluation unchanged as follows:
NO. SECTOR REVENUE GROWTH EVALUATION
2019
REVENUE GROWTH EVALUATION
2020
5-year CARG 2019 RANKING Q1-2020 2020F RANKING
1 Real Estate 27.3% 8.0% DECELERATE -18.5% 26.2% MAINTAIN
2 Food & Beverage 10.0% 2.4% DECELERATE 6.9% 24.5% ACCELERATE
3 Utilities 4.0% 4.7% DECELERATE -0.6% -4.0% DECELERATE
4 Industrial Goods & Services 10.2% 4.8% DECELERATE -1.5% -4.4% DECELERATE
5 Travel & Leisure 12.7% 0.4% DECELERATE -30.7% -18.5% DECELERATE
6 Construction & Materials 7.0% 3.7% DECELERATE -9.8% -7.5% DECELERATE
7 Basic Resources 9.9% 1.7% DECELERATE 3.2% 13.3% ACCELERATE
8 Oil & Gas -3.0% 2.3% DECELERATE -8.5% -13.1% DECELERATE
9 Telecommunications 6.9% 11.4% MAINTAIN 22.9% 14.3% ACCELERATE
11 Retail 17.9% 10.6% DECELERATE 16.0% 4.4% DECELERATE
12 Personal & Household Goods 8.2% 0.3% DECELERATE -3.9% -9.1% DECELERATE
13 Technology 3.9% 9.1% ACCELERATE 11.2% 14.7% ACCELERATE
14 Health care 4.1% 7.5% MAINTAIN 9.5% 0.1% DECELERATE
We will keep updating our evaluation on growth prospect for non-financial listed companies by sectors in the upcoming reports once more
2020 business plans are added.
3.1. Overview (cont.)
Notes: Including only listed companies having 2020 business plans updated from their 2020 Annual Shareholders’ Meeting resolutions or 2019 Annual
Reports or analysis by securities companies (from March 1, 2020 onwards)

The
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ul
Product
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up
3.2. Real Estate
Despite strong decline in Q1-2020, Real estate revenue is set to grow 26.2%, but profits
before tax may go down!
Sector +/-Actual revenue growth (YoY) +/-2020 growth forecast (YoY)
No. of cos % marcap of Sector 2019 Q1-20 No. of cos % marcap of Sector Revenue PBT
1 Real estate 95 100.0% 9.5% -17.9% 36 88.6% 26.2% -7.7%
1.1 Residential real estate 59 100.0% 13.0% -22.8% 22 92.1% 31.0% -3.7%
2020 Outlook
 VHM, the leading residential real estate developer contributing 13% of
total revenue of the sector, witnessed a 11% decrease in the number of
pre-sold property units with deposits secured in Q1-2020. According to
the first-quarter financial results report disclosed on its website, the pre-
sales are forecast to fall 23% YoY in 2020 and VHM continues bulk sales
strategy in order to maintain cash flow and improve gross profit margin.
 Low liquidity in apartment market has hurt revenues of listed property
brokers (DXG and CRE) and this impact will continue if the liquidity is not
improved.
 Growth outlook for the Real estate will depend on Residential real
estate development which contributes 73% of the sector’s
revenues, but the sub-sector reported a 22.8% revenue decline in
Q1-2020.
 Up to 22 residential real estate companies which represent 92.1%
of the market capitalization of the sub-sector had management
estimates on 2020 disclosed, in which their combined revenues
are set to grow 31% YoY while profits before tax will fall 3.7%.
VHM will take the lead as its revenue and profit before tax are
projected to rise 88% and 25.1% respectively thanks to the
delivery of three mega projects: Vinhomes Ocean Park, Vinhomes
Smart City và Vinhomes Grand Park.
 A recent report by Savills showed that real estate secondary
transactions and take-up rate dropped significantly in Q1-2020
(see Figure 42). The drop was partly attributed to delayed
launches at various projects amid the Covid-19 social distancing,
but the main reason is “the tightening of rules on lending to both
real estate developers and homebuyers as well as granting
licenses to new property projects in Hanoi and HCM City.
71% 73%
35%
27%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
-
30,000
60,000
90,000
2018 2019 Q1'19 Q1'20
Secondary transactions (apartments) Take-up ratio
Figure 42: Transaction volume & take-up ratio in Hanoi & HCM City
Source: FiinPro Platform, Savills
Notes: Take-up ratio = transaction volume divided by secondary supply
volume

The
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ul
Product
Suite of
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up
3.2. Real Estate (cont.)
Industrial real estate developers are not confident with 2020 growth estimate
Sector
+/-Actual revenue growth (YoY) +/-2020 growth forecast (YoY)
1.2 Industrial real estate 24 99.9% 50.4% -3.8% 9 46.2% -54.5% -63.9%
1.3 Retail estate & Others 12 99.9% -0.5% 7.1% 5 89.7% 7.5% -14.0%
2020 Outlook
Industrial real estate development:
• Industrial real estate developers account for 8% of market capitalization of Real estate, but their contribution was 19% by revenue in Q1-2020,
up from a lower proportion of 10% in 2019.
• The recent relocation of manufacturing operations away from China to other countries including Vietnam, driven by supply disruptions in
Covid-19-hit China, is the new driving force for industrial real estate companies. In the Vietnam Industrial Property Market report released on
May 19, 2020, CBRE said that Vietnam is facing its greatest opportunity to become a new manufacturing hub of the world, but a lot of
challenges remain, such as escalating rents and high occupancy of industrial parks in major manufacturing cities and provinces amid limited
industrial land supply as well as the lack of an original equipment manufacturer ecosystem. Industrial real estate developers having clean land
funds, low occupancy rate at existing industrial parks and good infrastructure such as IDC, KBC, SIP and TID could benefit from the trend.
• It is noteworthing that VHM, the leading residential property developer, has expanded into industrial real estate development which is expected
to make little contribution to VHM’s revenue in 2020 because the expansion is at the initial stage.
• VHM, the leading residential real estate developer, has expanded into industrial real estate development, which could contribute a little to
VHM’s revenues in 2020 because it is at the initial stage.
Retail estate services & Other:
• VRE, the only listed retail estate operator with a 3% contribution to the Real estate, witnessed its revenue to decline 26% and average
occupancy to drop 4.3 percentage points from the same period last year in Q1-2020. According to the first-quarter financial results report
disclosed on its website, VRE delayed the launch of 7 out of 10 malls originally scheduled to open in 2020 to 2021. As a result, the gross floor
area of VRE at the end of 2020 is expected to increase 170 square meters from a year earlier, fulfilling 65% of its earlier plan which was
disclosed prior to the Covid-19 outbreak.

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3.3. Travel & Leisure
2020 Outlook
Travel & Leisure: growth prospect for 2020 depends on when international flights are resumed
Sector
2 Travel & Leisure 31 100.0% -0.3% -30.7% 12 80.8% -18.5% -38.5%
Figure 43: No. of scheduled seats of Vietnam airliners (weekly)
Source: FiinPro Platform, OAG
With a contribution of 80% of revenues and market capitalization of the
Travel & Leisure, the Airlines is one of sectors worst-hit by Covid-19
outbreak as mentioned in Part 1 of this report.
• Q1-2020 review: Revenues and profits before tax of the Airlines,
dominated by HVN and VJC, dropped 33.4% and 201% from the same
period last year because a lot of domestic and international flights were
cancelled following the Covid-19 outbreak.
• 2020 outlook:
• Up to 12 companies representing 80.8% of the market capitalization
of Travel & Leisure have their 2020 management estimates or
earnings consensus disclosed, with revenues and profits before tax
likely to drop 18.5% and 38.5% respectively.
• The low management estimates or earnings consensus for 2020 are
due to low airline capacity even though authorities have loosened
measures on Covid-19 preventions since April 22, 2020. International
flights, however, have not yet been resumed to date. Acccording to
OAG, the world's leading travel data provider, the number of
scheduled flights within Vietnam in the week ending April 27 fell
70.1% YoY to as low as 2,000 while the scheduled capacity of
Vietnam airliners in the week ending May 25 still halved from a week
earlier. (see Figure 43).
-
300
600
900
1,200
1,500
1,800
t-13
(20/1)
t
(27/4)
t+1
(4/5)
t+2
(11/5)
t+3
(18/5)
t+4
(25/5)
Thousandseats
t = week (ending on 27/4/2020)
Loosening of
social
distancing
-50,1%

The
Powerf
ul
Product
Suite of
FiinGro
up
3.3. Travel & Leisure (cont.)
2020 Outlook
• The number of flights conducted by HVN and VJC dropped 87.9% and 93.4% YoY in April, according to a recent report of the Civial Aviation
Authoritiy of Vietnam. Revenue from passengers transport normally contribute 70%-80% total revenues of HVN and VJC and has been on downtrend
over the past six quarters, but it was seriously hit by Covid-19 outbreak in Q1-2020. (see Figure 44).
• Given the negative impact, analysts at Bao Viet Securities JSC expect HVN’s revenue and profit before tax to drop 38.3% and 55% YoY in 2020,
respectively. The Committee for Management of State Capital at Enterprises, the representative of state capital at HVN, projects a stronger decline,
noting that the Covid-19 outbreak, if yet to be controlled soon, could trim HVN’s revenue by 61% and the national flag carrier is likely to incur a loss of
VND19.6 trillion in 2020 vs. a profit of nearly VND3.4 trillion in 2019.
• VJC: International flights contribute 39% of passengers transport in 2019, higher than the 29% contribution by domestic flights. The on-going
suspension of international flights to prevent Covid-19 spreading into Vietnam, effective on March 21, is hurting VJC’s passenger transport revenues.
Analysts at Ban Viet Securities JSC believed that sales and lease back could rise 65% YoY in 2020, contributing one-thirds of VJC’s full-year revenue
(see Figure 45). However, the delivery of airplanes from Airbus and Boeing was delayed due to the spreading of Covid-19 and thus, VJC’s incomes
from sales and lease back could be hurt. With fixed costs (mostly maintenance fee and aircraft rentals) accounting for over 90% of cost structure in
Q1-2020, VJC is hardly to have profit growth in Q2 as well as in 2020.
Revenue of HVN is forecast to fall 38.3% YoY in 2020 while VJC’s earnings from passengers
transport are likely to decrease
Figure 45: Sales & lease back (SALB) revenue of VJC
14.6%
-30.4%
52.1%
-38.2%-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2018 2019 2020
HVN VJC
Figure 44: Passengers transport revenue growth of HVN, VJC (YoY)
Bamboo Airways
launches first flight
Source: FiinPro Platform, VJC Annual Reports
Notes: F is the forecast by analysts at Ban Viet Securities JSC
47%
37%
24%
37%
0%
20%
40%
60%
-
5
10
15
20
25
2017 2018 2019 2020F
TrillionVND
SALB cost SALB gross profit SALB/revenue ratio
SALB revenue
(forecast)

The
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ul
Product
Suite of
FiinGro
up
3.4. Food & Beverage
2020 Outlook
• Categorized into various sub-sectors such as Milk (VNM), Food Products (MSN, MCH, MML, DBC), Seafood (MPC, VHC, IDI) and Brewers (SAB,
BHN), the growth of Food & Beverage is driven by Food Products which account for 45% of revenue of the sector. Followings are Milk (18.5%),
Seafood (15%) and Brewers (8.5%).
• Q1-2020 review: The growth diverged among sub-sectors as follows:
- Food Products: Thin supply of pork amid African swine disease and food stockpiling amid Covid-19 outbreak helped MSN, DBC, VSN to boost
their revenues by 21%-112%. It is noteworthing that MSN overtook VNM to become champion of Food Products sub-sector for the first time in
terms of revenues in Q1-2020 thanks to the acquisition of VinCommerce.
- Seafood: The demand deterioration in major export markets such as China, the U.S., and EU amid Covid-19 pandemic caused revenues of
70% of leading seafood processors to fall in the quarter.
- Brewers: Decree No. 100/2019/ND-CP Decree No. 100/2019/ND-CP outlining sanctions for alcohol-drinking drivers, effective from the
beginning of 2020, resulted in a 46.5% decline in revenues of listed brewers, including a 47.1% drop for SAB.
- Milk: The revenue growth of the sub-sector was modest at 2.6%, in which VNM gained a 7.4% revenue growth despite lower sales at
supermarkets amid the social distancing, but revenue of QNS fell 28.7%.
Food & Beverage forecasts 24.5% growth in revenue but ~21% decline in profit before tax in 2020
• 2020 outlook:
- As of May 27, 2020, up to 32 F&B companies accounting for 71% of
the market capitalization of the sector had the 2020 management
estimates disclosed, with revenues set to grow 24.5%. Profits before
tax, however, are likely to drop 21.1%.
- Apart from impacts mentioned in our FiinPro Digest #2 report, the
2020 growth outlook of the sector will depend on the recovery of
demand in domestic market (for Food Products & Milk) and overseas
markets (for Seafood) once the Covid-19 outbreak is put under
control.
7.1%
0.6%
-19.4%
9.8%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
Food Products Seafood Brewers Milk
2019 2020F
Figure 46: Revenue growth under management estimates by sub-sectors (2020)
2020F: management estimates or consensus from securities companies, in which:
Food Products with 11/50 companies (representing 75.3% of the marcap of the sub-sector);
Seafood with 13/42 companíe (36.8%); Brewers with3/25 companies (85.1%); Milk with 2/2
companies (100%)
Sector
No. of cos
% marcap of
Sector
2019 Q1-20 No. of cos % marcap of Sector Revenue PBT
3 Food & Beverage 91 96.6% 1.7% 6.9% 32 71.0% 24.5% -21.1%

The
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ul
Product
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up
3.5. Retail
2020 Outlook
The growth outlook for the Retail in 2020 will depend on two giant retailers of MWG and FRT, which contribute a combined 80% of the revenue
growth. The revenue of leading retailer MWG was six times higher than second-ranked FRT.
• Q1-2020 review: The Retail retained a sales growth of 16% in the first quarter though Vietnam’s first Covid-19 patient was recorded on January
23. MWG’s net revenues grew 17.3% YoY, mostly supported by the increase in the number of stores (+845 stores). The Gioi Di Dong (TGDD)
and Dien may Xanh (DMX), which contribute a combined 85% of MWG’s revenue, saw the average sales per store to deteriorate for three
consecutive quarters since Q3-2019 while that of Bach hoa Xanh was up 15.1% thanks to food stockpiling among urban residents in late March
for fear of the Covid-19 widespreading (see Figure 47).
• 2020 outlook: As of May 27, 2020, up to 10 companies accounting for 85.4% of the market capitalization and 76% of revenues of the sector
had their 2020 management estimates or earnings consensus by securities companies disclosed, with the revenue growth targeted at 4.4% or
below the 2015-2019 bottom (see Figure 47). Profits before tax, meanwhile, are set to decline 28.7%. Covid-19 outbreak has started in Vietnam
since mid-March, with negative impacts really imprinted from April 1 when strict social distancing measures were applied across the country.
Monthly earnings update of MWG showed that revenues of TGDD and DMX dropped 30% YoY in April as one-thirds of stores in these two
chains were temporarily closed amid Covid-19 outbreak. The decline together with weak demand in post-Covid-19 period (if any) will hurt the
2020 growth of MWG as well as the Retail.
Retail: revenues are set to rise but profits may go down
Figure 48: Sales growth (YoY) of Retail, MWG, FRT
Source: FiinPro PlatformSource: FiinPro Platform
-8.0%
7.7%
4.4%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020F
FRT MWG Retail
No. of MWG stores
doubled
Covid-19
impacts
Sector +/-Actual revenue growth (YoY) +/-2020 growth forecast (YoY)
4 Retail 20 100.0% 11.0% 16.0% 10 85.4% 4.4% -28.7%
-3.7%
-14.4%
15.1%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20
Thế giới di động Điện máy Xanh
Bách hóa Xanh
Figure 47: Sales-per-store growth (YoY) of MWG by chains

FiinPro Digest #3: Covid-19 Pandemic: Assessing the Impacts from Corporate Financial Data Perspective

FiinPro Digest #3: Covid-19 Pandemic: Assessing the Impacts from Corporate Financial Data Perspective

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