Bayer reported its Q2 2018 results and provided an outlook for fiscal year 2018 including the impact of the Monsanto acquisition. Key points include:
- The Monsanto acquisition closed on June 7th and integration is underway.
- Q2 performance was on track to meet previous targets. Guidance now reflects Monsanto.
- Full year sales are expected to increase mid-single digits including Monsanto. EBITDA is forecast to rise high-single digits.
- Core EPS is projected to decrease high-single digits due to Monsanto seasonality and financing costs, but Monsanto is expected to be accretive in the first year.
- Net debt is estimated to reduce to around €37 billion by
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Disclaimer
This presentation may contain forward-looking statements based on current assumptions and forecasts made by Bayer Group or subgroup management. Various known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors could lead to material differences between the actual future results, financial situation, development or performance of the company and the estimates given here. These factors include those discussed in Bayer’s public reports which are available on the Bayer website at www.bayer.com. The company assumes no liability whatsoever to update these forward-looking statements or to conform them to future events or developments.
Disclaimer
This presentation may contain forward-looking statements based on current assumptions and forecasts made by Bayer Group or subgroup management. Various known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors could lead to material differences between the actual future results, financial situation, development or performance of the company and the estimates given here. These factors include those discussed in Bayer’s public reports which are available on the Bayer website at www.bayer.com. The company assumes no liability whatsoever to update these forward-looking statements or to conform them to future events or developments.
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findings with specific data-driven evidence in order to provide
independent and in-depth perspective on securities and financial
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2. Cautionary Statements Regarding Forward-Looking Information
/// Q2 2018 Investor Conference Call2
Certain statements contained in this communication may constitute “forward-looking statements.” Actual results could differ materially
from those projected or forecast in the forward-looking statements. The factors that could cause actual results to differ materially include
the following: the risk that the parties may be unable to achieve expected synergies and operating efficiencies in the merger within the
expected timeframes (or at all) and to successfully integrate the operations of Monsanto Company (“Monsanto”) into those of Bayer
Aktiengesellschaft (“Bayer”); such integration may be more difficult, time-consuming or costly than expected; revenues following the
transaction may be lower than expected; operating costs, customer loss and business disruption (including difficulties in maintaining
relationships with employees, customers, clients or suppliers) may be greater or more significant than expected following the transaction;
the retention of certain key employees at Monsanto; the parties’ ability to meet expectations regarding the accounting and tax treatments
of the merger; the impact of refinancing the loans taken out for the transaction; the impact of indebtedness incurred by Bayer in
connection with the transaction and the potential impact on Bayer’s rating of indebtedness; the effects of the business combination of
Bayer and Monsanto, including the combined company’s future financial condition, operating results, strategy and plans; other factors
detailed in Monsanto’s Annual Report on Form 10-K filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) for the fiscal
year ended August 31, 2017, and Monsanto’s other filings with the SEC, which are available at http://www.sec.gov and on Monsanto’s
website at www.monsanto.com; and other factors discussed in Bayer’s public reports which are available on the Bayer website at
www.bayer.com. Bayer assumes no obligation to update the information in this communication, except as otherwise required by law.
Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements that speak only as of the date hereof.
3. Agenda
/// Q2 2018 Investor Conference Call3
1. Monsanto Acquisition &
Business Update Q2 2018
2. Financials Q2 2018
3. Outlook FY 2018
Werner Baumann, CEO
4. Highlights
/// Q2 2018 Investor Conference Call4
Monsanto acquisition successfully closed on June 7th
Integration started after “Hold Separate“ has ended* on August 16th
Bayer (stand-alone) Q2 performance on track to meet previous FY 2018 targets
2018 guidance now reflects impact of Monsanto acquisition
Expected EBITDA contribution from Monsanto in H2 aligned to seasonality of the business
Anticipate strong Cash Flow contribution in H2
Net debt of €45bn (June 30, 2018) expected to be reduced to around €37bn (December 31, 2018)
Dividend per share proposed for 2018 at least on prior-year level
*based on finalization of divestments to BASF
5. New Crop Science – A Game Changer in the Industry
/// Q2 2018 Investor Conference Call5
The leading agriculture company in the world with …
Excellent product portfolio and leading innovation capabilities
Most advanced digital platform
Very strong and experienced team
Committed to shape agriculture to benefit farmers and consumers
Strong value creation …
Striving for longer term above average market growth and industry-leading profitability
Targeting synergies of USD1.2bn per annum by 2022
Already accretive to EPS in Year 1
6. Divisional Highlights
/// Q2 2018 Investor Conference Call6
Pharma on track to deliver FY 2018 guidance
Key growth products overall continue to drive performance
Further differentiation of Xarelto supported by first approval
of CAD/PAD indication
Damoctocog (Jivi) approved; larotrectinib expected in H2
Pharmaceuticals Crop Science
Consumer Health
Seasonal business in the US and supply chain
interruptions in EMEA impacted Q2 performance
APAC returned to growth driven by strong performance
of Nutritionals in China; OTC version of KW/PKW is
back in the market
Divestment of prescription dermatology business
North America, APAC and Latin America growing
Advantage product-family and Seresto with double-digit
sales increases
Share of top 4 brands increased to 68% of sales (+3pp)
Animal Health
Q2 pro forma sales grew 10% as Brazil Crop Protection
business normalizes and Corn business improves
Double-digit Q2 sales growth in Herbicides, Fungicides
and Insecticides driven by Brazil, EMEA and Asia Pacific
Monsanto delivered on key metrics with continued
adoption of new soybean, cotton and digital technologies
7. Agenda
/// Q2 2018 Investor Conference Call7
1. Monsanto Acquisition &
Business Update Q2 2018
2. Financials Q2 2018
3. Outlook FY 2018
Wolfgang Nickl, CFO
8. 543
Q2'17 Q2'18 Q2'17 Q2'18
70
Q2'17 Q2'18
Q2 2018 – On track for FY guidance
/// Q2 2018 Investor Conference Call8
Sales
in € million; currency & portfolio adj.
EBITDA
before special items; in € million
Core EPS
cont. operations; in €
8,714
9,481
1.52 1.54
2,247
2,335+9% +4% +1%
Monsanto contribution since June 7
9. Q2'17 Q2'18
Q2 2018 – Pharmaceuticals Driven by Key Growth Products
/// Q2 2018 Investor Conference Call9
Sales
EBITDA
in € million; ∆% yoy, Fx & portfolio adj.
before special items, in € million; ∆% yoy
Key growth products > 13% year on year
EBITDA impacted by negative Fx effect and investments in R&D as well as
Marketing & Sales
Limited impact from supply chain issues
Q2'17 Q2'18
4,304 4,217+3%
1,481
1,363-8%
34.4%
32.3%
EBITDA Margin
Volume +6%
Price -3%
Currency -5%
Portfolio 0%
Key growth products up by > 13% year on year
EBITDA impacted by negative Fx effect and higher investments in
R&D as well as Marketing & Sales expenses
Warning letter remediation plan on track
10. 468
543
Q2'17 Q2'18
70
Q2'17 Q2'18
Q2 2018 – Crop Science with Sales and Profit Improvement
/// Q2 2018 Investor Conference Call10
Sales
EBITDA
in € million; ∆% yoy, Fx & portfolio adj.
before special items, in € million; ∆% yoy
2,163
+21%
3,011
317
631
+99%
Monsanto contribution since June 7 BASF divestmentEBITDA Margin
Key growth products > 13% year on year
EBITDA impacted by negative Fx effect and investments in R&D as well as
Marketing & Sales
Limited impact from supply chain issues
Volume +22%
Price -1%
Currency -7%
Portfolio +25%
Monsanto EBITDA contribution limited due to timing of closing
EBITDA margins rebound with growth in Crop Protection in Brazil
Businesses divested to BASF deconsolidated as of August 1 and 16
14.7%
21.0%
11. Understanding the Seasonality of Monsanto‘s Business
/// Q2 2018 Investor Conference Call11
Q1 Q4Q2 Q3
2014 2015 20172016
Sales EBITDA before special items Cash Flow
Q2 Q4Q1 Q3 Q4Q1 Q2 Q3
~60% ~40% ~80% ~20% ~ minus 20% ~ plus 120%
June 7th June 7thJune 7th
12. Q2'17 Q2'18
Q2'17 Q2'18
Q2 2018 – Consumer Health Challenging
/// Q2 2018 Investor Conference Call12
Sales
EBITDA
in € million; ∆% yoy, Fx & portfolio adj.
before special items, in € million; ∆% yoy
1,542
-1%
314
256-19%
1,413
EBITDA Margin
Key growth products > 13% year on year
EBITDA impacted by negative Fx effect and investments in R&D as well as
Marketing & Sales
Limited impact from supply chain issues
Volume -2%
Price +1%
Currency -7%
Portfolio 0%
Late start to the allergy and suncare seasons determined Claritin and
Coppertone performance in the US, APAC with positive momentum
EBITDA impacted by lower volumes, unfavorable product mix and Fx
Divestment of prescription dermatology business
20.4%
18.1%
13. Q2'17 Q2'18
Q2'17 Q2'18
Q2 2018 – Animal Health with Strong Sales and Profit Increase
/// Q2 2018 Investor Conference Call13
Sales
EBITDA
in € million; ∆% yoy, Fx & portfolio adj.
before special items, in € million; ∆% yoy
450 +8% 453
116
128
+10%
EBITDA Margin
Volume +10%
Price -2%
Currency -7%
Portfolio 0%
Strong volume driven by sales increase, partially due to phasing
from Q3 into Q2
Double-digit EBITDA improvement despite negative Fx effects25.8%
28.3%
14. Q2 2018 P&L: Key Developments
/// Q2 2018 Investor Conference Call14
Core tax rate higher than reported
tax rate (21%) due to tax effects related
to amortization, special items and other
Increase in weighted number of
shares due to equity measures
P&L Q2 2017 Q2 2018
€ million € million
EBITDA before special items 2,247 2,335
Special items -112 -318
Reported EBITDA 2,135 2,017
Depreciation & Amortization -672 -666
Reported EBIT 1,463 1,351
Amortization and impairment losses / loss reversals on intangible assets 416 416
Special items (EBITDA) 112 318
Other 33 2
Core EBIT 2,024 2,087
Financial result (before special items) -205 -216
Core EBT 1,819 1,871
Taxes (before special items) -472 -456
Tax rate 25.9% 24.4%
Minorities -2 -6
Core Net income 1,345 1,409
No. of shares (m) 885.2 915.7
Core EPS (€) 1.52 1.54
Excl. special charges of €106m
mainly due to bridge financing of
Monsanto acquisition (reported
financial result: -€322m)
Mainly related to Crop Science
(€278m, ca. 50% related to PPA)
Amortization mainly resulting from
previous acquisitions
15. Strong Commitment to De-lever
Net Financial Debt at Year End now forecasted at ~€37bn
/// Q2 2018 Investor Conference Call15
1.650
44,697
13,811 4,965
12,762
5,652
13,608
51,774
~37,000
246
Monsanto
USD Bonds
Gross Financial
Debt
31.03.18
EUR-Bonds USD-Bonds
730
Bridge
Financing
Commercial
Paper
Other Financial
Liabilities
Gross Financial
Debt
30.06.18
in € million
Net Financial
Debt
31.12.18e
Gross financial debt
Net financial debt
17. Agenda
/// Q2 2018 Investor Conference Call17
1. Monsanto Acquisition &
Business Update Q2 2018
2. Financials Q2 2018
3. Outlook FY 2018
Werner Baumann, CEO
18. FY 2018 Outlook including Monsanto as of June 7
18
2017 Group Forecast 2018
(at closing rates of Jun. 30, 2018)
Group Forecast 2018
(currency adjusted)
Sales €35.0bn >€39.0bn Mid-single-digit % increase
(currency and portfolio adjusted)
EBITDA
(before special items)
€9.3bn
Low-to-mid-single-digit %
increase
High-single-digit % increase
Core EPS €6.64
1
€5.70 - €5.90 High-single-digit % decrease
/// Q2 2018 Investor Conference Call
Monsanto Core EPS contribution impacted by typical seasonality and technical effects
1 Adjusted for the bonus element in the context of the discounted rights issue in June 2018
19. Illustrative pro forma 2018 calculation showing 5% accretion of Monsanto
Pro-forma Core EPS at ~ 7€ for Fiscal Year 2018
/// Q2 2018 Investor Conference Call19
As of January 1, 2018
Monsanto included and step-up fixed assets
Synergies partially included
Divestments to BASF
All Financing measures (equity and debt)
resulting in 980m shares
Conversion US-GAAP to IFRS is cash
neutral
Major assumptions Pro-forma calculation for 2018
Monsanto
stand-
alone
BASF
Divestments
Bayer
stand-
alone
2018 *
~ 6.6
Pro-Forma
2018
~ 7.0
Share
Count
~6.7
~0.7
Financing
cost
~0.9
Synergies
~0.3
IFRS
Conversion
(cash
neutral)
~2.2
~0.5
Pro-Forma
2018
~ +5%
* Adjusted for the bonus element in the context of the discounted rights issue in June 2018
20. Dividend Payment for 2018
/// Q2 2018 Investor Conference Call20
Dividend per share proposal at least on prior-year level based on:
Strong Cash Flow generation capability of the combined entity
Lower than originally expected net debt level of ~€37bn at year end 2018e
Exciting future growth prospects
21. Coming Events
/// Q2 2018 Investor Conference Call21
Coming Events
Bayer Q3 2018 results on 13 November, 2018
Capital Markets Day in London on 5 December, 2018
24. 2018 Guidance for Key Pharma Products
24 /// Q2 2018 Investor Conference Call
Product Guidance FY 2018 (Fx adjusted)
Xarelto ~10% growth vs. 2017
Eylea Mid-teens-% growth vs. 2017
Xofigo Mid-single-digit % decline vs. 2017
Stivarga ~10% growth vs. 2017
Adempas >20% growth vs. 2017
Kogenate / Kovaltry High-single-digit-% decline vs. 2017 (incl. CSL)
Mid-single-digit-% increase vs. 2017 (excl. CSL)
Betaferon / Betaseron Mid-single-digit-% decline vs. 2017
Mirena family ~10% growth vs. 2017
YAZ family Low-single-digit-% increase vs. 2017
Nexavar High-single-digit-% decline vs. 2017
25. Group Outlook for FY 2018 including Monsanto Acquisition
25
2017 Group Forecast 2018
Sales €35.0bn
As reported *
>€39bn
(prev. <€35bn)
Portfolio & currency adjusted
Mid-single-digit % increase
(prev. low- to mid-single-digit % increase)
EBITDA
(before special items)
€9.3bn
As reported *
Low-to-mid-single-digit % increase
(prev. low-single-digit % decline)
Currency adjusted
High-single-digit % increase
(prev. mid-single-digit % increase)
Core EPS €6.641
As reported *
€5.70 - €5.90
(prev. prior-year level)
Currency adjusted
High-single-digit % decrease
(prev. mid-single-digit % increase)
Outlook depends on specific planning assumptions outlined in the Annual Report
/// Q2 2018 Investor Conference Call
*) At closing rates as of June 30, 2018; 1 Adjusted for the bonus element in the context of the discounted rights issue in June 2018
26. FY 2018 – Guidance by Segment
/// Q2 2018 Investor Conference Call26
Sales
Adj. EBITDA
Closing rates as of Jun. 30, 2018 Currency-adjusted
Pharma
Low-single-digit % increase to
>€16.5bn
Key growth products towards
€7bn
Low-single-digit % decline
Slight margin decline
Low-single-digit % increase
Consumer
Health
>€5.5bn (prior-year level)
Mid-single-digit % decline
(prev. low-single-digit % decline)
Low-single-digit % increase
Crop
Science
Mid-single-digit % increase to
Slightly above €14bn
(prev. mid-single-digit % increase
to >€9.5bn)
Mid-twenties % increase
(prev. mid-to-high-single-digit %
increase)
~30% increase
(prev. mid-teens % increase)
Animal
Health
Low-single-digit % increase Mid-single-digit % decline Prior-year level
Sales ∆ % yoy Fx and portfolio adj., EBITDA before special items, Continuing operations
Outlook depends on specific planning assumptions outlined in the Annual Report