EXPLORING MULTIPLE ENERGY FUTURES Using Patent Trends, TRIZ, Scenario Writing and AHP

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craftinginnovationtogether
c r a f t i n g i n n o v a t i o n t o g e t h e r
March 15, 2010© Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd. 1
2 0 1 0
7th
INTERNATIONAL SYMPOSIUM
ON FUELS AND LUBRICANTS
Theme:
Advances in Fuels and Lubricants
March 9-12, 2010
India Habitat Centre, New Delhi, India
Organised by
Exploring Multiple Energy Futures
– Using Patent Trends, TRIZ,
Scenario Writing and AHP
Navneet Bhushan#, Karthikeyan Iyer and
Ashank Reddy
# Email: navneet.bhushan@crafitti.com
Crafitti Consulting Private
Limited, Bangalore
http://www.crafitti.com

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ABSTRACT
Despite many technological advances, human race has continued to rely on fossil
fuels for its expanding energy consumption, thus depleting these precious
resources at much faster rates than they are replenished. There is a need to
describe, imagine and explore possible energy futures that we are facing in next
20 years or so. This paper use a new integrated approach which combines
scenario planning and studies of patent trends in specific domains and combine
them with the Theory of Inventive Problem Solving (TRIZ). This integrated
approach results in much more comprehensive and robust scenarios. The
resulting scenarios are explored to determine new possibilities for our energy
needs. The scope of research into energy efficient mechanisms (both present
and future) is then prioritized in each scenario. This is carried out using a
combination of Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). The comprehensive multi-
dimensional and multi-perspective (MDMP) methodology proposed in this
paper using well-established scientific methods results in exploration of multiple
energy futures thus creating more robust solution directions.

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Multi Dimensional Multi Perspective (MDMP)
Methodology to Explore the Future
STEP 1 Write MULTIPLE FUTURE SCENARIOS
STEP 2 EXPLORE TECHNOLOGY TRENDS (PATENTS) –
EXTRAPOLATE IF POSSIBLE
STEP 3 IMAGINE And FORECAST FUTURE POSSIBILITIES
(Thought Experiments, Theory of Inventive
Problem Solving (TRIZ))
STEP 4 PLAY OUT PATENTS TRENDS and TRIZ POSSIBILITIES
in Various SCENARIOS and EVALUATE USING
Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)

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ENERGY SCEANRIOS –
3 SCENARIO PLANNING STUDIES
Two SHELL ENERGY SCENARIOS TO 2050
• SCRAMBLE VS BLUEPRINTS
– In a Polarized Reactive World
• Step wise inadequate transition from coal to biofuels to
renewables (wind, solar)
• Shift towards bio-fuels and the demand for fossil-derived
fuels decelerates.
– In a Collaborative Proactive World
• Incentivizing early stage technologies
• Emergence of renewable driven electric transport and
demand for both fossil and bio-fuels start reducing
Four WORLD ENERGY
COUNCIL (WEC) SCENARIOS
Three WORLD
ECONOMIC
FORUM – INDIA
AND THE
WORLD
SCENARIOS
2025
Bollyworld Scenario, India follows the path of a make-believe
world characterized by typical bollywood movie. Superficial Growth!
The Pahale Bharat (“Putting India First”) Scenario
Idealized transformational scenario requires a movement where all
rise above the petty local issues.
Atakta Bharat (“India Getting Stuck”) Scenario, Indian
government fails to take action to instigate reforms. This scenario
paints a very bleak future for India.

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Four Future Scenarios – ENERGY OF INDIA
Perspective
SCENARIO Shell Scenarios WEC Study WEF Study
Holistic Organized
Systemic Empowerment
(HOSE)
Blueprints LION Pahale
Bharat
Specific Adaptive Modular
Enhancement (SAME)
Scramble GIRAFFE Atakata
Bharat
Specific Organized
Reactive Enhancement
(SORE)
Scramble LEOPARD Atakata
Bharat
Holistic Organized
Modular Engagement
(HOME)
Blueprints ELEPHANT Pahale
Bharat

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Holistic Organized Systemic Empowerment (HOSE)
This scenario combines elements of Blueprints from Shell scenario, elements of
LION scenario from WEC scenarios and elements of Pahale Bharath from WEF
scenario study. The world wakes up to the energy challenge with the associated
environment consequences and through an unprecedented level of inter-
government cooperation combined with informal and formal social networks
across boundaries join hands to create a holistic response to these challenges.
The global sharing and collaboration designed under this scenario percolates
down to individual countries and in fact Indians wakes up to these needs and
come up to put “India first” to eliminate and minimize the individualistic issues
and conflicts. The world cooperates in technology, science and commerce in an
unprecedented manner. The ideals of “One world Joint Response” leads to
improving the energy security of the whole world as the waste of resources is
minimized everywhere. The joint technology development in the renewable
resources openly embraces collaboration across all boundaries.

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Specific Adaptive Modular Enhancement (SAME)
This scenario combines elements of Scramble from the Shell Study with elements
of Giraffe scenario from the WEC scenario study. Further it includes elements of
Atakta Bharat, wherein neither the government is connected with the world nor
does it facilitate inclusive growth for the people of India. In the SAME scenario,
the world nations continue to view each other with suspicion which leads to
reduction in the pace of globalization and collaboration. There is an increase in
entrepreneurship, new products and technologies. India, however, continues to
remain a divided society – with half a population remaining unconnected with
the new development. This leads to unprecedented increase in frustration in
the form of young and unemployed population. The increase in violence on
petty issues continues to plague the nation.

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Specific Organized Reactive Enhancement (SORE)
This scenario combines elements of Scramble from the Shell Study
with elements of Leopard scenario from the WEC scenario study.
Further it includes elements of Atakta Bharat. In the SORE scenario,
the world nations look at their own interests only. The anti-
globalization sentiments increase with the associated increase in
the conflicts and hoarding of energy resources. With extremely
individualistic and short term focus the voices of reason and
rationality are trampled by the egos of nations. India continues to
remain a divided society – with half a population remaining
unconnected with the new development. The world finds itself on
the brink of energy and environment crises with a very strong
possibility of First World War of the millennium.

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Holistic Organized Modular Engagement (HOME)
This scenario combines elements of Blueprints from the Shell Study with
elements of Elephant scenario from the WEC scenario study. Further it includes
elements of Pahale Bharat. In the HOME scenario, the world nations are
organized into 4-5 different poles. It has become a multi-polar world looking at
the interests of only their own group. These poles or group of nations, although
connected with each other through trade and other links, do not interfere in
each other’s businesses and follow the principles of peaceful co-existence.
Within their own pole, they organize themselves as hierarchies based on the
energy surplus available to them. India assumes a position of strength as being
at the helm of one of the poles in the pentapolar world of 2050. With innovative
strategies for inclusive growth, India takes pragmatic initiatives to join hands
with many like-minded countries in the penta-polar world. The multiple poles
work towards enhancing their own energy security, however, they come
together to resolve conflicts and contradictions related to environment in a
more or less cohesive manner.

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PATENT TRENDS IN THE ENERGY SECTOR
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1979198119831985198719891991199319951997199920012003200520072009
#ofInternationalApps
AlternateEnergy Patent Apps Trends
solar power (materials or cells and modules)
solar power (systems)
Wind Power
Wave and Tidal
Hyrogen Production
Hydrogen Storage
Fuelcells
Carbon capture and Storage

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Japanese patent application number JP
2008101598 suggests the addition of
water to petroleum fuel to increase fuel
economy.
Water Petrol
Increased Fuel
Economy
+
Some Interesting Patents
JP 2008127578 gives a
lubricating oil
composition that can
decrease the amount of
fuel consumption in an
internal combustion
engine.

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March 15, 2010 13© Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd.
Patent application number CN
101016488/ KR20040104318
describes a methanol reformulated
fuel alternative to gasoline.
US2008047290 provides a method and an apparatus to stop and overcome
the known shortage of the fresh water
through its obtaining by freezing-out from the
atmospheric air, even in the most arid, but
sunny, areas of the Earth, as well as to
substitute the organic and nuclear fuels by the
hydrogen-fuel obtained, by decomposition of
the fresh water, as the materialized energy of
the concentrated and accumulated Sun-heat
and of the accumulated night cosmic cold.

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March 15, 2010 14© Crafitti ConsultingPrivate Ltd.
US2009288584 (A1) provides a
method to convert solid
combustible waste materials
highly efficient fuel
by subjecting such materials to size reduction in suitable
size-reducing equipment. The last piece of the equipment is a
mill which pulverizes the waste materials into fine particles
having a high surface to mass ratio and forming a highly
efficient fuel when these particles are directly injected into a
combustion reactor operating at high temperature.
WO 2009101647(A1)
describes a procedure to
produce bio-fuels of
natural origin from
organic wastes
Organic Wastes Bio-Fuels

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Two Clear Strategies from Patent Filing Trends
• The analysis of patent documents indicate a two-pronged
approach is being followed which we name –
– (a) The Use it Well approach (the technology that
could use the available oil, coal or gas in the most
efficient way possible) and
– (b) Make the Move approach, a futuristic approach
of moving into alternate sources of energy.

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TRIZ – Inventive Problem Solving by
Altshuller
Teoriya Resheniya Izobreatatelskikh Zadatch• 1946 Patent
Officer in Russian
Navy
• Discovered
patterns in
patents,
published paper.
Sent to Gulag
• 1954 released,
analysed
2,500,000 patents
• Identified what
makes a
successful patent
• 1956-1985 TRIZ
formulated
• Same Problems and Solutions appear repeatedly in different
industries (Myth: My field is Unique )
• There are a series of recognizable evolution paths for all technical
systems (Myth: Evolution is Completely Random)
• Innovative solutions used theories outside their own area/industry
(Myth: Innovation happens through Deeper Knowledge)
• The most powerful solutions uncover and eliminate contradictions
(Myth: Optimization is the Focus)
TRIZ itself does not solve problems.
Problems are solved by people.
TRIZ teaches how to solve problems.

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TRIZ: Laws of Evolution
1. Law of Increasing Degree of Ideality - Increasing Ratio -> Benefits/Harm (cost)
2. Law of Non-uniform evolution of subsystems -> Leads to System Conflicts
3. Law of Transition to a higher Level system -> from simple to more complex
4. Law of Increasing dynamism (flexibility) -> More adaptable to change
5. Law of Transition to micro-level -> Increasing fragmentation
6. Law of Completeness -> Gradual Elimination of Human Component
7. Law of Shortening of Energy Flow Path -> Reduction in Energy/Info transformation
stages
8. Law of Increasing controllability -> Evolution of controlled interactions of system
elements
9. Law of Harmonization of rhythms -> Synchronization of natural frequencies of
elements

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Future of Energy using TRIZ
Laws of System Evolution

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c r a f t i n g i n n o v a t i o n t o g e t h e rUse of easily available
perishing energy
sources (fossil fuels –
natural gas, oil)
Use of widely available
perishing energy
sources (coal)
Use of widely available
but slowly replenishing
energy sources (bio-
fuel)
Minimal energy wastage
(minimum transportation
of energy, minimum
emissions)
Complete recapture and
use of energy waste
(heat) and emissions
Use of free, clean
energy sources (non-
polluting renewable
energy - wind, solar)
IFR - Self-sustaining,
self-cleaning energy
(humans and
machines self sustain
– perpetual machines)
Working backwards from
Ideal Final Result

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Higher level energy systems are able to work with higher
entropy energy forms .e.g. movement from fossil-fuels to bio-
fuel and then to geothermal, wind, solar, tidal
energy. Collaborative science and technology helps multiple
domains like material science, nanotechnology,
biotechnology etc. to come together and create the next level
of biological energy systems that actively generate and store
energy.
LiveEnergy
Transition to higher
level systems
Smart
Materials
Biotech
NanotechIncreasing number and diversity of systems,
convolving into materials with built-in
functional zones
Bio-batteries like sugar molecules store
energy captured from sunlight similar to
photosynthesis in plants).

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Systems are built for highly efficient utilization of popular energy
sources, e.g. Cars engines are able to operate on petrol, diesel,
natural gas, CNG, LPG, ethanol or any combinations.
Systems are able to dynamically adapt to a larger variety of energy
sources, albeit with only above average efficiencies, initially.
MultiEnergy
Increasing dynamism
Transition to active
adapting, self adapting,
forward sensing systems
All cars come pre- equipped with
variety of energy crunchers - solar
panels, batteries, diesel engines,
batteries, wind sails etc.

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Energy consumption is measured in milliliters or equivalent
rather than liter equivalents. Oil supply and demand
measured in liters rather than barrels. Systems are also able
to capture in the minutest quantities, store and re-utilize
energy wasted during transmission and use.
DropEnergy
Transition to micro-
level
Crystal sponge
holds three
times more
hydrogen than
any known
substance
Crystal Lattice to molecules to atom-
ions to elementary particles
Law of completeness
Dislodging of human involvement
Roads are designed with
structured bumps – car
suspension systems are able to
store and re-use the energy
generated.

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Systems become increasingly segmented
and modular. Standardization helps iron out
inefficiencies in energy storage,
transmission and use.
New plug and play automobiles are widely
used. Users can assemble their own cycles,
motorbikes and cars, or convert one to
another with easy toolkits.
ModularEnergy
Increasing dynamism
Increasing
controllability
Increasing flexibility of physical
structures – rigid system to
system with one or more flexing
points to elastomeric systems
Moving towards completely
controlled fields – gravity to
electromechanical
A modular family car

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EnergyNets
Bio-Fuel
Food
Competition for landNon-uniform evolution of
sub-systems
Harmonization of rhythms
Integrated supply chains for food
and bio-fuel
Shortening of Energy
Flow Path
From multiple systems to synchronized
systems – function distribution
Lesser number of energy transformation
stages
Lowest energy transmission loss by
enabling fuel to energy conversion
at last mile
With the advent of bio-fuels, food and fuel supply
chains are integrated. The resulting supply chain
efficiencies salvage the escalating global standoff
between food crops and fuel crops.
Vegetable oils are used for both food and fuel.
All households have simple thermal oil
convertors.

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EnergyNets
The Global Energy Network

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TRIZ Laws of Evolution Strategy
 Non-uniform evolution
of sub-systems
 Harmonization of
rhythms
 Shortening of energy
flow path
Energy Nets
With the advent of bio -fuels, food and fuel supply chains are
integrated. The resulting supply chain efficiencies salvage the
escalating global standoff between food crops and fuel crops.
Vegetable oils are used for both food and fuel. All households have
simple thermal oil convertors.
 Transition to higher
level system
 Law of system
completeness
Live Energy
Higher level energy systems are able to work with higher entropy
energy forms .e.g. movement from fossil -fuels to bio-fuel and then to
geothermal, wind, solar, tidal energy. Systems are also able to store
and re-utilize energy wasted during transmission and use.
Collaborative science and technology helps multiple domains like
material science, nanotechnology, biotechnology et c. to come
together and create the next level of biological energy systems that
actively generate and store energy. Roads are designed with
structured bumps – car suspension systems are able to store and re -
use the energy generated. Bio-batteries like sugar molecules store
energy captured from sunlight similar to photosynthesis in plants.
 Increasing dynamism
 Harmonization of
rhythms
 Shortening of energy
flow path
Multi-Energy
Systems are built for highly efficient utilization of popular energy
sources, e.g. Cars engines are able to operate on petrol, diesel,
natural gas, CNG, LPG, ethanol or any combinations.
Systems are able to dynamically adapt to a larger variety of energy
sources, albeit with only above a verage efficiencies, initially. All cars
come pre- equipped with variety of energy crunchers - solar panels,
batteries, diesel engines, batteries, wind sails etc.
 Transition to micro-level Drop Energy
Energy consumption is measured in milliliters or equivalent rather than
liter equivalents. Oil supply and demand measured in liters rather than
barrels.
 Increasing dynamism
 Increasing
Controllability
Modular Energy
Systems become increasingly segmented and modular.
Standardization helps iron out inefficiencies in energy storage,
transmission and use. New plug and play automobiles are widely
used. Users can assemble their own cycles, motorbikes and cars, or
convert one to another with easy toolkits.

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Analytic Hierarchy Process is a Multi-Criteria
Decision Analysis Technique
SCENARIOS Strategy Expert 1 Expert 2 Expert 3
Geo
Mean
Relative
Value of
Strategy
Energy Nets 0.453 0.524 0.476 0.484 0.485
Live Energy 0.037 0.050 0.054 0.046 0.046
Multi-Energy 0.234 0.191 0.197 0.207 0.207
Drop Energy 0.061 0.051 0.056 0.056 0.056
Modular Energy 0.215 0.185 0.216 0.204 0.205
Energy Nets 0.055 0.039 0.053 0.048 0.051
Live Energy 0.087 0.346 0.202 0.183 0.193
Multi-Energy 0.196 0.126 0.130 0.148 0.156
Drop Energy 0.296 0.290 0.196 0.256 0.270
Modular Energy 0.367 0.199 0.419 0.312 0.330
Energy Nets 0.035 0.038 0.041 0.038 0.043
Live Energy 0.275 0.136 0.155 0.180 0.203
Multi-Energy 0.176 0.345 0.148 0.208 0.235
Drop Energy 0.444 0.136 0.229 0.240 0.272
Modular Energy 0.070 0.345 0.427 0.218 0.247
Energy Nets 0.454 0.472 0.574 0.497 0.504
Live Energy 0.033 0.049 0.046 0.042 0.043
Multi-Energy 0.222 0.146 0.150 0.169 0.171
Drop Energy 0.070 0.135 0.080 0.091 0.092
Modular Energy 0.222 0.197 0.150 0.187 0.190
Holistic Organized
Systemic
Empowerment
(HOSE)
Specific Adaptive
Modular
Enhancement (SAME)
Specific Organized
Reactive
Enhancement (SORE)
Holistic Organized
Modular Engagement
(HOME)

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Which Energy Strategy will work in Which
Scenario more ….
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
Energy Nets
Live Energy
Multi-EnergyDrop Energy
Modular Energy
Holistic OrganizedSystemic Empowerment
(HOSE)
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
EnergyNets
Live Energy
Multi-EnergyDropEnergy
Modular Energy
Specific Adaptive Modular Enhancement
(SAME)
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
Energy Nets
Live Energy
Modular Energy
Specific Organized Reactive Enhancement
(SORE)
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
Energy Nets
Live Energy
Modular Energy
Holistic OrganizedModular Engagement
(HOME)

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What should be the LONG TERM STRATEGY …..
It is evident that in HOSE and HOME Scenarios, the Energy Nets strategy
emerges as the top priority with almost 50% relative value. However, in the
SAME and SORE scenarios, Energy Net strategy is of least value. In the SAME
scenario Modular Energy and Drop Energy strategies become more important
while in the SORE Modular, Drop, Multi and Live energy have very close relative
values.
Once can choose a relative path based on the possibility of future.
However, given the need of global cooperation, creating an integrated
global collaborative energy net seemsto be the most important
long term strategy.

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CONCLUSIONS
• An integrated methodology combining Scenario planning, Patent
trends, Theory of Inventive Problem Solving (TRIZ) and Analytic
Hierarchy Process (AHP). This is used as a test case in scenarios for
possible futures of energy in the global context.
• One can see the efficacy of the methodology as the results explore
multiple inputs and contexts to generate newer and different
possibilities yet integrating in the overall context.
• We intend to develop and apply this methodology in further
detailed explorations of future energy needs of the world.
• Lastly, we look forward to active collaborators in our
explorations of future as we believe the methodology reinforced
with multiple domain experts from wide ranging organizations
will lead to a more Energized Future – we believe this is really the
need of the hour!

Confidential
Thank You
Crafitti Consulting Pvt Ltd |www.crafitti.com
(info@crafitti.com)
navneet.bhushan@crafitti.com
© Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd.

EXPLORING MULTIPLE ENERGY FUTURES Using Patent Trends, TRIZ, Scenario Writing and AHP

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