The document discusses three main topics:
1. Greed of financial investors and their influence on commodity markets through speculation and manipulation, which has significantly impacted oil prices.
2. The distribution of commodity reserves is uneven, with most located in regions different from major consumers, and access for international companies is limited in some countries due to political risks.
3. OPEC risks long-term budget deficits if oil prices fall much lower and members do not obey production quotas, as external account balances require prices of $30-95 per barrel for most OPEC countries.
Shelub cdc health care professional travel lectureAaron Shelub
This document provides an overview of travel medicine and the pre-travel consultation process. It discusses key topics including travelers' health epidemiology, assessing the traveler, reviewing the travel itinerary, common travel health risks such as malaria, hepatitis A, typhoid fever and travelers' diarrhea. It also reviews important travel vaccines including hepatitis A and B, typhoid, yellow fever and malaria chemoprophylaxis. The document is intended as an educational reference for healthcare professionals conducting pre-travel health consultations.
The document summarizes the state of the global wool market in 2011. It finds that world wool prices increased significantly from 2010 levels. Wool demand is recovering due to economic growth and higher consumer confidence, though unemployment remains high. The textile industry is seeing increased activity and orders, particularly in Europe. Global wool production declined slightly in 2010 but is expected to stabilize or increase slightly going forward as high wool prices encourage production. Overall the outlook for wool demand and prices remains positive.
Shelub cdc health care professional travel lectureAaron Shelub
This document discusses key aspects of travel medicine and the pre-travel consultation. It outlines topics to cover in the consultation including assessing the traveler's health risks based on their medical history, itinerary, destinations and activities. Common health risks and diseases of concern for travelers are reviewed, such as malaria, travelers' diarrhea, hepatitis A, typhoid and yellow fever. The importance of vaccinations for adult travelers is emphasized. The document provides guidance on travel health resources and disease specific information to discuss with patients during the pre-travel consultation.
Us Commercial Real Estate The Next Drag Aug12futlus
This document summarizes the state of the US real estate markets, including both housing and commercial real estate. While the housing market is showing some signs of improvement with rising home sales and prices, there are still concerns around potential additional foreclosures and difficulties for builders and buyers to obtain financing. The commercial real estate market is seen as the next potential drag, with continued declines in property prices, rising foreclosures, and risks that a large portion of loans from 2006-07 will not qualify for refinancing. Losses in commercial real estate could negatively impact US banks and increase risks of further bank failures.
The “World Silver Survey” is the authoritative publication on the silver market. The 2012 edition reports on all aspects of the silver market, including key areas such as demand, supply, investment, and price. Thomson Reuters GFMS produced the “World Silver Survey 2012” on behalf of the Silver Institute, which has been publishing the “Survey” since 1990. Thomson Reuters GFMS is recognized as the world’s leading precious metals markets consultancy.
An nfpSynergy presentation on how advice charities are affected by the recession, and how they can combat the effects of the credit crunch. Includes data on how the recession is affecting charity income.
The document provides key metrics for marketing and customer programs on a monthly basis. For marketing, it tracks opportunities, collateral, webcasts, impressions, budgets, leads and social media. For customers, it tracks new customers, retention, database size, adoption, total customers and lifetime value. Metrics show performance compared to goals. Overall it provides a comprehensive overview of marketing and customer pipeline, performance and growth on a monthly and quarterly basis.
Shelub cdc health care professional travel lectureAaron Shelub
This document provides an overview of travel medicine and the pre-travel consultation process. It discusses key topics including travelers' health epidemiology, assessing the traveler, reviewing the travel itinerary, common travel health risks such as malaria, hepatitis A, typhoid fever and travelers' diarrhea. It also reviews important travel vaccines including hepatitis A and B, typhoid, yellow fever and malaria chemoprophylaxis. The document is intended as an educational reference for healthcare professionals conducting pre-travel health consultations.
The document summarizes the state of the global wool market in 2011. It finds that world wool prices increased significantly from 2010 levels. Wool demand is recovering due to economic growth and higher consumer confidence, though unemployment remains high. The textile industry is seeing increased activity and orders, particularly in Europe. Global wool production declined slightly in 2010 but is expected to stabilize or increase slightly going forward as high wool prices encourage production. Overall the outlook for wool demand and prices remains positive.
Shelub cdc health care professional travel lectureAaron Shelub
This document discusses key aspects of travel medicine and the pre-travel consultation. It outlines topics to cover in the consultation including assessing the traveler's health risks based on their medical history, itinerary, destinations and activities. Common health risks and diseases of concern for travelers are reviewed, such as malaria, travelers' diarrhea, hepatitis A, typhoid and yellow fever. The importance of vaccinations for adult travelers is emphasized. The document provides guidance on travel health resources and disease specific information to discuss with patients during the pre-travel consultation.
Us Commercial Real Estate The Next Drag Aug12futlus
This document summarizes the state of the US real estate markets, including both housing and commercial real estate. While the housing market is showing some signs of improvement with rising home sales and prices, there are still concerns around potential additional foreclosures and difficulties for builders and buyers to obtain financing. The commercial real estate market is seen as the next potential drag, with continued declines in property prices, rising foreclosures, and risks that a large portion of loans from 2006-07 will not qualify for refinancing. Losses in commercial real estate could negatively impact US banks and increase risks of further bank failures.
The “World Silver Survey” is the authoritative publication on the silver market. The 2012 edition reports on all aspects of the silver market, including key areas such as demand, supply, investment, and price. Thomson Reuters GFMS produced the “World Silver Survey 2012” on behalf of the Silver Institute, which has been publishing the “Survey” since 1990. Thomson Reuters GFMS is recognized as the world’s leading precious metals markets consultancy.
An nfpSynergy presentation on how advice charities are affected by the recession, and how they can combat the effects of the credit crunch. Includes data on how the recession is affecting charity income.
The document provides key metrics for marketing and customer programs on a monthly basis. For marketing, it tracks opportunities, collateral, webcasts, impressions, budgets, leads and social media. For customers, it tracks new customers, retention, database size, adoption, total customers and lifetime value. Metrics show performance compared to goals. Overall it provides a comprehensive overview of marketing and customer pipeline, performance and growth on a monthly and quarterly basis.
Taller en Control en la Distribución, expendio y uso de Medicamentos Veterinarios aplicable en Apicultura, Acuicultura, Bovinos y Porcinos, basados en la OIE y la
Legislación Europea en Materia de Salud Animal.
07 al 10 de abril de 2014 – Guatemala
constructing social power through academic literacyMihaela Tilinca
presentation of research on construction of power through academic literacy in a Romanian University
drawing on works of David Barton, Roz Ivanic, Bordieu
EcoSaludable cree que la calidad de vida de las personas mayores depende de su alimentación y pretende ser una referencia para la calidad de la alimentación de las personas mayores a través de productos orgánicos, locales y acordes a sus necesidades de salud, libres de químicos y respetuosos con el medio ambiente. Su misión es optimizar la salud de las personas mayores mediante una alimentación sostenible que incluye productos de temporada producidos localmente.
A Leads 4 Business oferece serviços de geração de leads qualificadas e fechamento de vendas através de estratégias de marketing digital. A empresa assume todos os custos e o cliente paga apenas por resultados, em leads entregues ou vendas concluídas. A Leads 4 Business cria e mantém todos os meios necessários para gerar vendas para os clientes.
Lenze offers a complete range of three-phase AC motors that:
- Come in different designs for foot or flange mounting and can operate in any mounting position.
- Have options for separate or integral fans, brakes, and encoders.
- Are suitable for inverter operation and designed to withstand high switching frequencies.
- Can be paired with Lenze frequency inverters and gearboxes for complete drive solutions from a single supplier.
Construya su propia pbx asteriks elastixjuanes2001
Este documento describe cómo configurar un sistema PBX (central telefónica privada) utilizando el software de código abierto Asterisk y la distribución Elastix. Explica que Asterisk es un software PBX popular que ha sido adoptado por muchas empresas, y que Elastix es una distribución que facilita la instalación y configuración de Asterisk a través de una interfaz web amigable sin necesidad de experiencia en Linux o programación. A continuación, guía al lector paso a paso en la instalación de un sistema PBX basado en Asterisk/Elastix con 4 líneas
This document outlines the agenda for the CIRCLE-2 MOUNTain Final Meeting on September 26-27, 2013 in Barcelona, Spain. Day 1 will cover topics like CIRCLE-2 projects, knowledge exchange in mountain areas, and adaptation efforts in the Pyrenees and Carpathians. Working groups will discuss improving knowledge sharing and cooperation in mountain regions. Day 2 will cover climate change in the Himalayas and integrating stakeholder needs with scientific knowledge through effective science-practice interactions. The CIRCLE-2 MOUNTain sub-network funded research projects on climate change impacts and adaptation in European mountain areas.
Paolo Petrucciani has over 30 years of experience in management consulting, having worked at several large consulting firms and run his own firm. He has extensive experience designing and implementing organizational change projects, HR systems, knowledge management programs, and strategic planning initiatives for a wide range of clients across multiple industries. Petrucciani holds a degree in mathematics and specializes in organizational cybernetics, change management, and human resources. He is a certified management consultant and has authored several publications.
Kevin Leversee on Big Data and You at Campus DevCon at DLSUDEVCON
The document discusses how the amount of content on the internet doubles every 48 hours, meaning data is growing exponentially. It states that even small businesses now have access to massive amounts of data and making sense of this data is critical for business success. The final line indicates that every company is now a social business.
Este documento presenta una guía de aprendizaje para un programa de formación técnica. La guía describe las actividades de aprendizaje que incluyen reflexión, contextualización, apropiación de conocimientos, transferencia y evaluación. El objetivo es que los aprendices desarrollen habilidades para el mantenimiento de equipos de cómputo y redes a través de dramatizaciones y ejercicios prácticos.
The British Council is the UK’s official agency for building trust between the UK and other countries through developing cultural and educational links and providing educational opportunities.
El documento presenta TREEMODEL, un servicio de consultoría para PYMEs que se describe mediante la metáfora de un árbol. TREEMODEL ofrece asesoramiento a PYMEs para mejorar sus procesos a través de un análisis inicial, establecimiento de objetivos, implantación de mejoras y seguimiento. El servicio busca que las PYMEs se unan en una comunidad para apoyarse mutuamente en su crecimiento.
Crossfit es un tipo de entrenamiento funcional de alta intensidad que combina ejercicios de fuerza, resistencia y gimnasia. Se enfoca en mejorar la funcionalidad de los músculos a través de movimientos constantes y variados realizados a alta intensidad. Comenzó en 1995 en California y desde entonces se ha expandido a más de 2,700 gimnasios (llamados "Boxes") alrededor del mundo.
Revista de agosto de Tiendas Top Móvil. Este mes coontinuamos hablando de móviles, samartphones y tablets.
Este mes analizamos el nuevo modelo Q10 de la marca Blackberry, comparamos dos tablets de Samsung y Amazon y entrevistamos a nuestro departamento de franquicias.
- PRT Growing Services Ltd. is the largest producer of container grown forest seedlings in North America, with 13 nursery sites and over 425 employees.
- The presentation discusses PRT's competitive position, contracted revenue stream, forest seedling market drivers including the housing market and export markets, and the impact of the US housing market downturn on PRT's financial performance between 2008-2011.
- Looking ahead, PRT's growth strategies include leveraging an expected housing market recovery, expanding into regional forestry markets, diversifying into non-forestry starter plants and hardwood seedlings.
This document discusses development projects and real estate in Bath and North East Somerset. It includes:
1) Data and charts on retail vacancy rates, housing construction, and school capital project spending in the region.
2) Information on the financial challenges facing the local council due to budget cuts, including a required 30% reduction in spending over four years.
3) John Betty's role as the Strategic Director of Development and Major Projects, and examples of projects the council is undertaking regarding housing, regeneration, and working with the private sector.
Taller en Control en la Distribución, expendio y uso de Medicamentos Veterinarios aplicable en Apicultura, Acuicultura, Bovinos y Porcinos, basados en la OIE y la
Legislación Europea en Materia de Salud Animal.
07 al 10 de abril de 2014 – Guatemala
constructing social power through academic literacyMihaela Tilinca
presentation of research on construction of power through academic literacy in a Romanian University
drawing on works of David Barton, Roz Ivanic, Bordieu
EcoSaludable cree que la calidad de vida de las personas mayores depende de su alimentación y pretende ser una referencia para la calidad de la alimentación de las personas mayores a través de productos orgánicos, locales y acordes a sus necesidades de salud, libres de químicos y respetuosos con el medio ambiente. Su misión es optimizar la salud de las personas mayores mediante una alimentación sostenible que incluye productos de temporada producidos localmente.
A Leads 4 Business oferece serviços de geração de leads qualificadas e fechamento de vendas através de estratégias de marketing digital. A empresa assume todos os custos e o cliente paga apenas por resultados, em leads entregues ou vendas concluídas. A Leads 4 Business cria e mantém todos os meios necessários para gerar vendas para os clientes.
Lenze offers a complete range of three-phase AC motors that:
- Come in different designs for foot or flange mounting and can operate in any mounting position.
- Have options for separate or integral fans, brakes, and encoders.
- Are suitable for inverter operation and designed to withstand high switching frequencies.
- Can be paired with Lenze frequency inverters and gearboxes for complete drive solutions from a single supplier.
Construya su propia pbx asteriks elastixjuanes2001
Este documento describe cómo configurar un sistema PBX (central telefónica privada) utilizando el software de código abierto Asterisk y la distribución Elastix. Explica que Asterisk es un software PBX popular que ha sido adoptado por muchas empresas, y que Elastix es una distribución que facilita la instalación y configuración de Asterisk a través de una interfaz web amigable sin necesidad de experiencia en Linux o programación. A continuación, guía al lector paso a paso en la instalación de un sistema PBX basado en Asterisk/Elastix con 4 líneas
This document outlines the agenda for the CIRCLE-2 MOUNTain Final Meeting on September 26-27, 2013 in Barcelona, Spain. Day 1 will cover topics like CIRCLE-2 projects, knowledge exchange in mountain areas, and adaptation efforts in the Pyrenees and Carpathians. Working groups will discuss improving knowledge sharing and cooperation in mountain regions. Day 2 will cover climate change in the Himalayas and integrating stakeholder needs with scientific knowledge through effective science-practice interactions. The CIRCLE-2 MOUNTain sub-network funded research projects on climate change impacts and adaptation in European mountain areas.
Paolo Petrucciani has over 30 years of experience in management consulting, having worked at several large consulting firms and run his own firm. He has extensive experience designing and implementing organizational change projects, HR systems, knowledge management programs, and strategic planning initiatives for a wide range of clients across multiple industries. Petrucciani holds a degree in mathematics and specializes in organizational cybernetics, change management, and human resources. He is a certified management consultant and has authored several publications.
Kevin Leversee on Big Data and You at Campus DevCon at DLSUDEVCON
The document discusses how the amount of content on the internet doubles every 48 hours, meaning data is growing exponentially. It states that even small businesses now have access to massive amounts of data and making sense of this data is critical for business success. The final line indicates that every company is now a social business.
Este documento presenta una guía de aprendizaje para un programa de formación técnica. La guía describe las actividades de aprendizaje que incluyen reflexión, contextualización, apropiación de conocimientos, transferencia y evaluación. El objetivo es que los aprendices desarrollen habilidades para el mantenimiento de equipos de cómputo y redes a través de dramatizaciones y ejercicios prácticos.
The British Council is the UK’s official agency for building trust between the UK and other countries through developing cultural and educational links and providing educational opportunities.
El documento presenta TREEMODEL, un servicio de consultoría para PYMEs que se describe mediante la metáfora de un árbol. TREEMODEL ofrece asesoramiento a PYMEs para mejorar sus procesos a través de un análisis inicial, establecimiento de objetivos, implantación de mejoras y seguimiento. El servicio busca que las PYMEs se unan en una comunidad para apoyarse mutuamente en su crecimiento.
Crossfit es un tipo de entrenamiento funcional de alta intensidad que combina ejercicios de fuerza, resistencia y gimnasia. Se enfoca en mejorar la funcionalidad de los músculos a través de movimientos constantes y variados realizados a alta intensidad. Comenzó en 1995 en California y desde entonces se ha expandido a más de 2,700 gimnasios (llamados "Boxes") alrededor del mundo.
Revista de agosto de Tiendas Top Móvil. Este mes coontinuamos hablando de móviles, samartphones y tablets.
Este mes analizamos el nuevo modelo Q10 de la marca Blackberry, comparamos dos tablets de Samsung y Amazon y entrevistamos a nuestro departamento de franquicias.
- PRT Growing Services Ltd. is the largest producer of container grown forest seedlings in North America, with 13 nursery sites and over 425 employees.
- The presentation discusses PRT's competitive position, contracted revenue stream, forest seedling market drivers including the housing market and export markets, and the impact of the US housing market downturn on PRT's financial performance between 2008-2011.
- Looking ahead, PRT's growth strategies include leveraging an expected housing market recovery, expanding into regional forestry markets, diversifying into non-forestry starter plants and hardwood seedlings.
This document discusses development projects and real estate in Bath and North East Somerset. It includes:
1) Data and charts on retail vacancy rates, housing construction, and school capital project spending in the region.
2) Information on the financial challenges facing the local council due to budget cuts, including a required 30% reduction in spending over four years.
3) John Betty's role as the Strategic Director of Development and Major Projects, and examples of projects the council is undertaking regarding housing, regeneration, and working with the private sector.
This document shows the Human Interest (HI) scores for several documentary films over a two year period from 2010 to 2012. The HI scores measure conversation and interest in films online and spike around a film's release date and Oscar nomination. While interest drops off for most films after their initial buzz, some films like Food Inc. and Restrepo were able to sustain public interest and conversation over longer periods of time. The data also shows that films in 2011 saw sharp drops in discussion after the Academy Awards compared to films from 2010 which maintained higher levels of engagement.
Nigeria’S Economic Competitiveness In The African Contexticgfmconference
This paper addresses two key issues. First, we provide a set of basic facts on the current state of Nigeria’s economic competitiveness. Using the World Economic Forum’s Global Competitiveness Index, we identify Nigeria’s main competitive strengths and weaknesses. Comparisons with selected African and other countries provide an idea of Nigeria’s economic preparedness to move to a more advanced stage of development. Second, the paper focuses on the fact that in spite of huge oil resources, the nation’s economic competitiveness remains very low. We note the role of expenditure policy in managing the volatility of oil revenue/wealth, which has implications for economic development in Nigeria. We then highlight the areas on which the country should focus in order to achieve higher economic competitiveness, sustainable growth and enduring prosperity for its citizens. These include measures at the macro, micro, state, and regional levels, in addition to adopting sound and prudent fiscal policy, productive investments (especially on infrastructure and human capital), and diversification of the economy.
This document summarizes online video trends in Europe. It finds that while growth of unique viewers and video views slowed in 2010, consumption has since shifted to higher quality, longer videos. There is demand for a quality viewing experience, wide range of engaging content, convenient accessibility, and pricing worth paying. As supply meets this demand, online video is being driven by improved broadband, more content from broadcasters and local specialists, and user generated content supplemented by partners. Syndication and social media make video more accessible, while advanced advertising allows optimized campaigns and understanding of impact. Overall online video is becoming more integrated with television.
The document discusses the impacts of the global economic crisis following the financial crisis of 2008. It notes that many developing countries were innocent victims despite not being involved in subprime lending. The crisis led to a collapse in asset prices, economic recession, and declining growth rates around the world. Commodity prices and capital flows also reversed, straining the finances of developing nations. The document advocates for improved international cooperation and policy responses to mitigate the crisis impacts.
Monsanto's biotech pipeline is accelerating, with 10 projects either advancing phases or being added in the past year. Key advancements include two generations of drought-tolerant corn families moving forward simultaneously, as well as 4 projects transitioning from Phase 2 to Phase 3. Progress is focusing on the most impactful technologies like drought tolerance and nitrogen utilization in corn. SmartStax was also added to the pipeline as the new corn trait platform to complement Roundup Ready 2 Yield soybeans. Overall the updates show a strengthened pipeline with increased progress across important programs.
Monsanto's biotech pipeline is accelerating, with 10 projects either advancing phases or being added in the past year. Key advancements include two generations of drought-tolerant corn families moving forward simultaneously, as well as 4 projects transitioning from Phase 2 to Phase 3. Progress is focusing on the most impactful technologies, like two HIT projects advancing. SmartStax was also added as the new corn trait platform to complement Roundup Ready 2 Yield soybeans. This signals strength across Monsanto's leading pipeline.
Monsanto's biotech pipeline is accelerating, with 10 projects either advancing phases or being added in the past year. Key advancements include two generations of drought-tolerant corn families moving forward simultaneously, as well as 4 projects transitioning from Phase 2 to Phase 3. Progress is focusing on the most impactful technologies like drought tolerance and nitrogen utilization in corn. SmartStax was also added to the pipeline as the new corn trait platform to complement Roundup Ready 2 Yield soybeans. Overall the updates show a strengthened pipeline with increased progress across important programs.
The document describes the BLU-JET AT6020 Commercial Class Fertilizer Applicator. It is designed for high rate, high acre application needs with a heavy duty 6" x 6" mainframe and swath widths from 45' to 62.5'. It can place NH3, liquid, dry, or dual placement applications in preplant, sidedress, or strip till configurations. It features high flotation tires and precision metering systems to handle high speed, high rate application needs.
Estonia Overview - Andrus Viirg - Stanford - Jan 25 2010Burton Lee
Estonia is a northern European country that regained its independence in 1991 after being occupied by the Soviet Union. It has a population of 1.36 million and its economy relies heavily on exports, which comprise 76% of GDP. Estonia has transitioned to a digital society, with nearly all government and banking services available online. It has a strong focus on innovation and R&D, with several Centers of Excellence conducting research in fields like IT, electronics, food, and biomedicine. Enterprise Estonia works to promote foreign investment and international trade, as well as support entrepreneurs and startups.
Hugh Grant, Chairman and CEO of Monsanto Company, presented at a CEO & Investor Conference on February 14, 2006. In his presentation, he discussed:
1) Biotechnology has been rapidly adopted by farmers due to significant economic and environmental benefits it provides, such as increased productivity and yields as well as reductions in pesticide use.
2) Monsanto has a leading commercial portfolio of biotech traits as well as an unmatched research and development pipeline of new traits in development.
3) During the 2005 Midwest drought, Monsanto's YieldGard Rootworm trait demonstrated its value by allowing corn plants to have heartier roots and tap into available moisture, providing over 30 additional bushels per acre
The Impact of Global Financial Crisis on IndonesiaDadang Solihin
The document summarizes a presentation on the impact of the global financial crisis in Asia and the Pacific region. It discusses how Indonesia was less impacted than expected due to strong economic growth prior to the crisis. While export and import growth declined, domestic consumption helped maintain GDP growth. The government implemented fiscal stimulus and social protection programs to mitigate effects. It also established a crisis monitoring system to better understand vulnerabilities and impacts on the poor.
The document discusses the economic downturn and its causes, including the housing crisis and overleveraged financial system. It notes that problems were compounded by structured products, regulatory changes, and derivative growth. The downturn has impacted consumers through falling home prices, tight credit, job losses, and declining earnings. Technology spending is also slowing as the economy weakens. The challenges suggest a slow, non-V shaped recovery.
This document discusses the economic recession and its various causes. It analyzes factors like the housing crisis leading the recession, overleveraged financial institutions, falling asset prices, and a weak household balance sheet both in the US and globally. It examines how productivity growth, central banks, and foreign purchases of treasuries contributed to rising debt levels and a consumer-driven economy in the US. It concludes that the current crisis is secular in nature rather than a normal cycle and will take time to recover from.
The document discusses the economic crisis and its causes, including the housing market collapse, overleveraged financial institutions, and falling asset prices. It analyzes factors like declining inflation, growing household debt levels, and foreign investment in U.S. treasuries. Key themes discussed are that the crisis is global in scale, secular in nature, and will take time to resolve given its credit-driven nature and risk to GDP growth. The U.S. economy's past reliance on consumption and how this has impacted consumers and businesses is also examined.
This document discusses the economic recession and its various causes. It analyzes factors like the housing crisis leading the recession, overleveraged financial institutions, falling asset prices, and a weak household balance sheet both in the US and globally. It examines how productivity growth, central banks, and foreign purchases of treasuries contributed to rising debt levels and a consumer-driven economy in the US. It concludes that the current crisis is secular in nature rather than a normal cycle and will take time to recover from.
The document discusses the economic crisis and its causes, including the housing crisis and overleveraged financial system. It notes that problems were compounded by structured products, regulatory changes, and derivative growth. The US economy had become dependent on consumers and foreign investment in treasuries. Several charts show trends like rising household debt, falling wages and savings, and declining consumer confidence. The outlook suggests a long recovery rather than a quick V-shaped bounce back. Key sectors like technology will likely see slowing growth as the economy contracts.
Форум о финансовых инновациях
500 человек, формирующих будущее финансовых инноваций:
банки, телеком, стартапы, инвесторы, it-компании,
соберутся на ежегодный форум FinNext-2016.
соберутся на
ежегодный форум
FinNext-2016.
Алексей Гиязов,
Сбербанк
и многие другие...
В числе спикеров:
В числе спикеров:
500 человек формирующих будущее
финансовых инноваций:
Банки, телеком,
стартапы, инвесторы,
it-компании,
В числе спикеров
500 человек
формирующих будущее
финансовых инноваций:
Банки, телеком,
стартапы, инвесторы,
it-компании,
Банки, телеком,
стартапы, инвесторы,
IT-компании
Место встречи людей,
формирующих будущее
финансовых инноваций
Прямое
общение
с инесторами
Курс по продаже
стартапа
Сбербанку
Финансовые
услуги
будушего
Инновационные
кейсы банков
Битва
инноваторов
500
участников
Борис Ким,
Qiwi
Артем Яманов,
Тинькофф Банк
Владимир
Урбанский,
Альфа-банк
Екатерина
Фроловичева
Сбербанк
Максим
Янпольский,
Банк Открытие
Александр
Сотников,
Национальный банк
Республики
Беларусь
Мария Грачева,
Яндекс.Деньги
Виктор Орловский,
Управляющая
компания венчурного
фонда SBTV Fund I
В числе спикеров:
Уже участвуют:
Партнеры:
Борис Ким,
Qiwi
Артем Яманов,
Тинькофф Банк
Владимир
Урбанский,
Альфа-банк
Екатерина
Фроловичева,
Сбербанк
Максим
Янпольский,
Банк Открытие
Александр
Сотников,
Нацбанк Беларуси
О Форуме FinNext-2015
Инновации, которые спасут в кризис
Нынешний кризис не получится «пересидеть», как это было в 2008-2009 годах. Чтобы остаться в живых, финансовые структуры обязаны измениться. 2015-й год — возможно, последний шанс для таких изменений. Без значительных инвестиций надо внедрить инновации, которые дадут немедленный результат. Катализатором изменений стало выступать и государство. Когда рынок не прощает ошибок, исполнение становится критически важным. Прорывной инновацией становится хорошая идея, совмещенная с лучшим исполнением. Победят самые умные, самые аналитичные, самые информированные. Как войти в эту когорту? Ответ на этот вопрос мы получим 25 февраля 2015 года на Третьем Форуме финансовых инноваций FinNext-2015. http://finnext.ru/
Программа «Моё дело» выходит с мая 2014 года.
К концу января 2015 года сделано 37 интервью с предпринимателями.
Ведущий —Олег Анисимов. Интервью выходят в трёх форматах: видео, аудио и текст.
Государственные гарантии по средствам ИП в банкахOleg Anisimov
С 1 января 2014 года вступил в силу закон №410-ФЗ «О внесении изменений в Федеральный закон «О негосударственных пенсионных фондах» и отдельные законодательные акты Российской Федерации», согласно которому страхованию подлежат средства на всех банковских счетах (вкладах) индивидуальных предпринимателей.
Под вкладами понимаются не только депозиты, но и текущие счета.
Возмещение выплачивается вкладчику в размере 100% суммы всех его счетов (вкладов) в банке, в том числе открытых для осуществления предпринимательской деятельности, но не более 700 тысяч рублей в совокупности.
Программка к матчам Лиги чемпионов Зенит-Бенфика 2012 года. Первый матч прошел в Санкт-Петербурге 15 февраля и закончился победой "Зенита" 3:2. Ответный матч состоится в Лиссабоне 6 марта.
Олег Тиньков "Как стать бизнесменом" (1 глава)Oleg Anisimov
Содержание, введение и первая глава книги Олега Тинькова "Как стать бизнесменом". Электронная версия книги доступна на Портале Олега Тинькова бесплатно: http://tinkov.com/books. Соавтор - Олег Анисимов: http://bit.ly/oleganisimov.
В магазинах появилась в продаже книга Олега Тинькова "Я такой как все". Не прошло и недели, а она уже попала практически во все топ-5 раздела "Бизнес" крупных московских книжных магазинов и интернет-магазина ОЗОН.
В книге 384 страницы, она в твердом переплете и в суперобложке.
Книга отличается от эксклюзивного варианта, который Олег продает на своем сайте Tinkov.com, меньшим размером, меньшим количеством фотографий, качеством бумаги и внешним видом макета.
Федеральное агентство по печати и массовым коммуникациям в мае 2010 года выпустило доклад "Интернет
в России: Состояние, тенденции
и перспективы развития".
Книга Олега Тинькова "Я такой как все" выходит в мае 2010 года и продается только на tinkov.com до сентября. Цена - 990 рублей. Или 2500 рублей с дарственной надписью Олега Тинькова.
In a tight labour market, job-seekers gain bargaining power and leverage it into greater job quality—at least, that’s the conventional wisdom.
Michael, LMIC Economist, presented findings that reveal a weakened relationship between labour market tightness and job quality indicators following the pandemic. Labour market tightness coincided with growth in real wages for only a portion of workers: those in low-wage jobs requiring little education. Several factors—including labour market composition, worker and employer behaviour, and labour market practices—have contributed to the absence of worker benefits. These will be investigated further in future work.
Abhay Bhutada, the Managing Director of Poonawalla Fincorp Limited, is an accomplished leader with over 15 years of experience in commercial and retail lending. A Qualified Chartered Accountant, he has been pivotal in leveraging technology to enhance financial services. Starting his career at Bank of India, he later founded TAB Capital Limited and co-founded Poonawalla Finance Private Limited, emphasizing digital lending. Under his leadership, Poonawalla Fincorp achieved a 'AAA' credit rating, integrating acquisitions and emphasizing corporate governance. Actively involved in industry forums and CSR initiatives, Abhay has been recognized with awards like "Young Entrepreneur of India 2017" and "40 under 40 Most Influential Leader for 2020-21." Personally, he values mindfulness, enjoys gardening, yoga, and sees every day as an opportunity for growth and improvement.
Discover the Future of Dogecoin with Our Comprehensive Guidance36 Crypto
Learn in-depth about Dogecoin's trajectory and stay informed with 36crypto's essential and up-to-date information about the crypto space.
Our presentation delves into Dogecoin's potential future, exploring whether it's destined to skyrocket to the moon or face a downward spiral. In addition, it highlights invaluable insights. Don't miss out on this opportunity to enhance your crypto understanding!
https://36crypto.com/the-future-of-dogecoin-how-high-can-this-cryptocurrency-reach/
University of North Carolina at Charlotte degree offer diploma Transcripttscdzuip
办理美国UNCC毕业证书制作北卡大学夏洛特分校假文凭定制Q微168899991做UNCC留信网教留服认证海牙认证改UNCC成绩单GPA做UNCC假学位证假文凭高仿毕业证GRE代考如何申请北卡罗莱纳大学夏洛特分校University of North Carolina at Charlotte degree offer diploma Transcript
New Visa Rules for Tourists and Students in Thailand | Amit Kakkar Easy VisaAmit Kakkar
Discover essential details about Thailand's recent visa policy changes, tailored for tourists and students. Amit Kakkar Easy Visa provides a comprehensive overview of new requirements, application processes, and tips to ensure a smooth transition for all travelers.
Independent Study - College of Wooster Research (2023-2024) FDI, Culture, Glo...AntoniaOwensDetwiler
"Does Foreign Direct Investment Negatively Affect Preservation of Culture in the Global South? Case Studies in Thailand and Cambodia."
Do elements of globalization, such as Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), negatively affect the ability of countries in the Global South to preserve their culture? This research aims to answer this question by employing a cross-sectional comparative case study analysis utilizing methods of difference. Thailand and Cambodia are compared as they are in the same region and have a similar culture. The metric of difference between Thailand and Cambodia is their ability to preserve their culture. This ability is operationalized by their respective attitudes towards FDI; Thailand imposes stringent regulations and limitations on FDI while Cambodia does not hesitate to accept most FDI and imposes fewer limitations. The evidence from this study suggests that FDI from globally influential countries with high gross domestic products (GDPs) (e.g. China, U.S.) challenges the ability of countries with lower GDPs (e.g. Cambodia) to protect their culture. Furthermore, the ability, or lack thereof, of the receiving countries to protect their culture is amplified by the existence and implementation of restrictive FDI policies imposed by their governments.
My study abroad in Bali, Indonesia, inspired this research topic as I noticed how globalization is changing the culture of its people. I learned their language and way of life which helped me understand the beauty and importance of cultural preservation. I believe we could all benefit from learning new perspectives as they could help us ideate solutions to contemporary issues and empathize with others.
Vicinity Jobs’ data includes more than three million 2023 OJPs and thousands of skills. Most skills appear in less than 0.02% of job postings, so most postings rely on a small subset of commonly used terms, like teamwork.
Laura Adkins-Hackett, Economist, LMIC, and Sukriti Trehan, Data Scientist, LMIC, presented their research exploring trends in the skills listed in OJPs to develop a deeper understanding of in-demand skills. This research project uses pointwise mutual information and other methods to extract more information about common skills from the relationships between skills, occupations and regions.
Dr. Alyce Su Cover Story - China's Investment Leadermsthrill
In World Expo 2010 Shanghai – the most visited Expo in the World History
https://www.britannica.com/event/Expo-Shanghai-2010
China’s official organizer of the Expo, CCPIT (China Council for the Promotion of International Trade https://en.ccpit.org/) has chosen Dr. Alyce Su as the Cover Person with Cover Story, in the Expo’s official magazine distributed throughout the Expo, showcasing China’s New Generation of Leaders to the World.
Fabular Frames and the Four Ratio ProblemMajid Iqbal
Digital, interactive art showing the struggle of a society in providing for its present population while also saving planetary resources for future generations. Spread across several frames, the art is actually the rendering of real and speculative data. The stereographic projections change shape in response to prompts and provocations. Visitors interact with the model through speculative statements about how to increase savings across communities, regions, ecosystems and environments. Their fabulations combined with random noise, i.e. factors beyond control, have a dramatic effect on the societal transition. Things get better. Things get worse. The aim is to give visitors a new grasp and feel of the ongoing struggles in democracies around the world.
Stunning art in the small multiples format brings out the spatiotemporal nature of societal transitions, against backdrop issues such as energy, housing, waste, farmland and forest. In each frame we see hopeful and frightful interplays between spending and saving. Problems emerge when one of the two parts of the existential anaglyph rapidly shrinks like Arctic ice, as factors cross thresholds. Ecological wealth and intergenerational equity areFour at stake. Not enough spending could mean economic stress, social unrest and political conflict. Not enough saving and there will be climate breakdown and ‘bankruptcy’. So where does speculative design start and the gambling and betting end? Behind each fabular frame is a four ratio problem. Each ratio reflects the level of sacrifice and self-restraint a society is willing to accept, against promises of prosperity and freedom. Some values seem to stabilise a frame while others cause collapse. Get the ratios right and we can have it all. Get them wrong and things get more desperate.
BIHC Briefing June 2024 from Bank+Insurance Hybrid Capital in association wit...
Eugene Weinberg Commerzbank
1. GMT – Greed, Might and Taxi drivers
What comes after the strong price decreases for commodities?
Eugen Weinberg ZCM Research Cyprus / March 18, 2009
2. “I can calculate the motion of heavenly bodies, but
not the madness of peoplequot;
Sir Isaac Newton
„A politician needs the ability to foretell what is going
to happen tomorrow, next week, next month, and
next year. And to have the ability afterwards to
explain why it didn't happen.“
Sir Winston Churchill
1
Eugen Weinberg ZCM Research Cuprus / March 18, 2009
3. Agenda
Greed (of the financial investors)
Crude oil – economic vs. investment subject
•
1.
Strong speculative interest and influence of investors
•
Manipulation and speculation on commodity markets – common issue
•
Might (of the commodity producers)
• Are raw materials really scarce?
2.
• Uneven distribution of the commodity reserves
• Revenge of the “Old Economy”
Taxi drivers (in Shanghai)
• Decoupling of the Emerging Markets?
3.
• China and India should follow the path of the Asian Tiger States
• Enormous dynamics and importance of the Asian Ems for commodities
Conclusions
4. • Expectations
• Forecast error
2
Eugen Weinberg ZCM Research Cuprus / March 18, 2009
4. Commodity markets – quo vadis?
• The future is uncertain und is dependent on present decisions
• Mosaic theory: the more information one has to analyze the better is the forecast
1979
1999
2008 1986
3
Eugen Weinberg ZCM Research Cuprus / March 18, 2009
6. Investors – the most important pricing factor?
Favourable fundamental environment and 9000
Amount outstanding of OTC commodity derivatives
price performance sparked investor demand 8000
(in billions of US dollars)
(“Commodity Beta”) 7000
6000
De-correlation enhances return of an Equity 5000
Portfolio (“Equity Alpha”) 4000
3000
Investors’ demand growing dramatically 2000
1000
• Direct investments grew from US$5 billion in 2000
0
to US$300 billion this year, market value of oil 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
companies & mining stocks around US$5 trillion
3500 150
Total open interest WTI ('000 contracts, NYM EX), ls
Investors shape long-term …
3000 WTI price (USD/barrel, NYMEX), rS 125
• Growing long-only interest result in generally 2500
higher prices 100
2000
75
…as well as short-term trends 1500
50
• Non-professional speculative interest shape 1000
short-term development 25
500
0 0
• Daily WTI trading volume on NYMEX 500 bbl eq. 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
million, daily WTI production 300.000 bbl
Sources: BIS, NYMEX, CFTC, Commerzbank Corporates & Markets
5
Eugen Weinberg ZCM Research Cuprus / March 18, 2009
7. Speculation is dead… Long live investment!
180 150
US Oil Fund
160
• Oil-ETF: the easiest way to “invest” 130
140
in oil 120 110
• 4 billions USD invested 100
90
80
• Controls 20% of the total 1-month-
contracts on WTI 60 70
40
• Controls 15% of the trading volume 50
20
• Contango constellation is supported 0 30
by the regular rolls of the USO
Jul. 06 Jan. 07 Jul. 07 Jan. 08 Jul. 08 Jan. 09
25%
• Regularly rolls lead to negative
performance: 20%
- Emission: 1 USO share = 1 WTI-Future 15%
- Now: 1 USO = $27, WTI-Future = 45$
10%
5%
0%
Aug. 06 Feb. 07 Aug. 07 Feb. 08 Aug. 08 Feb. 09
6
Eugen Weinberg ZCM Research Cuprus / March 18, 2009
8. WTI is not an appropriate benchmark
Relation between production and
trading volumes biased
• Production volumes decreasing:
- 1986: 1,3 mm barrels daily
- 2008: 0,3 mm barrels daily
• Trading volumes increasing:
- 1986: 10’000 contracts daily
- 2008: 500’000 contracts daily
• Relations biased verzerrt
- WTI production:trading - 1:2000
- World production:trading - 1:6
Specific infrastructure problems of
-
WTI crudes
• Low inventory capacities
• “Land-locked” oil sorts
• Pipelines difficult to divert or “switch”
• New production from Canada
7
Eugen Weinberg ZCM Research Cuprus / March 18, 2009
9. Investors – markets strongly influenced by speculative interest
Speculation and manipulation are not phantoms 60 60000
Inventory statistics
used for price
• This year the volume of commodity hedge-funds 50 50000
manipulation?
increased to supposedly US$ 100 billions 40
40000
• Amaranth charged by CFTC of attempted 30
manipulation, Optiver Holdings charged by 30000
CFTC of manipulating oil & gas markets 20
20000
• Large hedge-funds collapses recently: 10
Amaranth, Red Kite, SemGroup, Ospraie Fund
0 10000
Dez. 04 Dez. 05 Dez. 06 Dez. 07
Unregulated markets susceptible for speculation LM E inventories, l Nickel (US$/tonne), r
• Little information on positioning of different
market participants available – FSA vs. SEC
Enorm volatility and
$30 intraday move -
• Statistics sometimes easy to manipulate
economic good vs.
• Low liquidity – derivatives markets often Investment
determine pricing in physical markets
Events not always fundamentally explainable
• Even ex-post not explainable
• Hedge-funds and big investors influence short-
as well medium-term developments
Sources: LME, Bloomberg
8
Eugen Weinberg ZCM Research Cuprus / March 18, 2009
10. Contango – what does the forward curve tell us?
Inventories 100
90
• Inventories are well filled
80
• Liquidity preference decreases attractiveness
of inventory holding 70
60
Expectations
WTI futures curve (currently - Jan. 16, 2009)
50
• The market expects higher prices going
40 WTI futures curve (1 year ago - Jan. 16, 2008)
forward
30
• Positioning of the “peak-oil” supporters at the
6M 1Y 18M 2Y 30M 3Y 42M 4Y 54M 5Y 66M
back end of the curve
20 170
Contango 24M -1M (USD/barrel), left
Credit crunch
15 150
WTI crude oil price (NYM EX, USD/barrel), right
• Arbitrage along the curve impossible
10 130
• Low credit availability results in short-end 5 110
selling
0 90
Increased pressure on the front end -5 70
Investment demand, speculative interest -10 50
decreasing
-15 30
• Margin calls and forced liquidations
-20 10
• Increased short-selling activities
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
9
Eugen Weinberg ZCM Research Cuprus / March 18, 2009 Source: ICE, NYMEX, Commerzbank Corporates & Markets
11. Agenda
Greed (of the financial investors)
• Crude oil – economic vs. investment subject
1.
• Strong speculative interest and influence of investors
• Manipulation und speculation on commodity markets – common issue
Might (of the commodity producers)
Are raw materials really scarce?
•
2.
Uneven distribution of the commodity reserves
•
Revenge of the “Old Economy”
•
Taxi drivers (in Shanghai)
• Decoupling of the Emerging Markets?
3.
• China and India should follow the path of the Asian Tiger States
• Enormous dynamics and importance of the Asian Ems for commodities
Conclusions
4. • Expectations
• Forecast error
10
Eugen Weinberg ZCM Research Cuprus / March 18, 2009
12. Available reserves still sufficient …
[…on a theoretical basis energy supplies are not endangered for quite a while]
Statistical reach of oil reserves: Proved reserves to consumption ratio (years of supply )
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Source: BP Statistical Review
11
Eugen Weinberg ZCM Research Cuprus / March 18, 2009
13. … but the allocation of reserves is quite uneven
[most oil reserves located in different regions to where they are needed
Crude oil Natural gas
OECD countries are the world‘s
Consumption Production Reserves Consumption Production Reserves
biggest consumers, however
OPEC 41% 75% 17% 44%
8% 11%
they don‘t have any significant
OECD 25% 7% 41% 8%
60% 52%
M. East
reserves
31% 62% 10% 41%
7% 9%
FSU 14% 10% 28% 33%
5% 22%
Resources often found in China 4% 1% 2% 1%
8% 2%
countries with high political risks USA 25% 9% 3% 24% 20% 3%
Total 81 mm 1189 2,7 bn cm 179,5
81 mm 2.7 bn cm
License agreements
(oil companies)
State owned companies
21%
International companies have
35%
limited access to reserves
participation
High cost of oil production due to
(oil companies)
high political risks
12%
Limited access
Irak 10%
22%
Source: International Energy Agency
12
Eugen Weinberg ZCM Research Cuprus / March 18, 2009
14. OPEC should react strongly to the falling oil prices
[OPEC is risking longer-term budget deficits if not obeying to the production quotas]
At what oil price the balance of external accounts is still in balance?
2000 2007 2008 2009
120
$/barrel
97
91 94
100
80 68 71
63
62
55 58
55
60 51
Current OPEC crude oil
49 49
45 45 48
basket
42
35 34 34
32
40 31
26 23
22
18
20 11
5
0
Algeria UAE Kuw ait Saudi Arabia Iran Nigeria Venezuela
Source: PFC Energy, Commerzbank Corporates & Markets
13
Eugen Weinberg ZCM Research Cuprus / March 18, 2009
15. Non-OPEC production will disappoint … again
[Production decreases in the non-OPEC countries not voluntarily ]
Mature oil fields
Mexico: Cantarell (1976)
Kazakhstan: Tengiz (1979)
4500 4500
Ölproduktion Norw egen (Tsd. Barrel/Tag)
Russia: Samotlor (1965),
4000 4000
Romashkino (1948) Ölproduktion M exiko (Tsd. Barrel/Tag)
3500 3500
USA: Prudhoe Bay (1969)
3000 3000
Norway: Forties (1970), Brent (1971)
2500 2500
Lack of financing, expensive 2000 2000
production 1500 1500
Kazakhstan : Kashagan (exp. 2005, 1000 1000
currently planned ffor 2014)
500 500
Brazil Sugar Loaf, Tupi
0 0
Canada: oil sands 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009e
Unavailable technologies /
Know How
14
Eugen Weinberg ZCM Research Cuprus / March 18, 2009
16. Non-OPEC production will disappoint … again (II)
[Production decreases in the non-OPEC countries not voluntarily ]
Russia
Mature oil fields (1960s-1980s) 45 Ölproduktion Russlands (M io. Tonnen pro M onat)
Lack of technologies 40
Lack of commitment/financing 35
High duties and taxes
30
Low domestic oil prices (RUB
5000 per ton = $19 per barrel) 25
20
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
Canada
Extremely high capital
expenditures
– USD 13,7 billions for 100.000 bbl daily expansion =
$40/bbl (Chevron/RD Shell)
Environmental hazard
15
Eugen Weinberg ZCM Research Cuprus / March 18, 2009
High royalties
High natural gas usage
17. Bio-fuels are not the answer yet
[… bio-fuels may currently only substitute an insignificant part of crude oil production]
Economic aspects are questionable 100 Proportion of flexi-fuelers for new registrations (Brazil)
• Only attractive taxation makes bio-fuels 80
competitive 60
Ecologic aspects are questionable 40
20
• Lacking energy efficiency: more input energy
than output (exceptions sugar, corn) 0
Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08
• Poorly CO2-balance: Rain forests swept for
palm oil plantages
4500 800
Palm oil price, left
Dramatic price increases for raw 4000 700
materials Corn price, right
3500 600
• Economic efficiency vulnerable due to high 3000 500
commodity costs 2500 400
2000 300
Dramatic effect on food prices
1500 200
• Bio-fuels responsible for 75% of food price
increases (World Bank) 1000 100
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Source: ANFAVEA, CBoT, MDE
16
Eugen Weinberg ZCM Research Cuprus / March 18, 2009
18. Agenda
Greed (of the financial investors)
• Crude oil – economic vs. investment subject
1.
• Strong speculative interest and influence of investors
• Manipulation und speculation on commodity markets – common issue
Might (of the commodity producers)
• Are raw materials really scarce?
2.
• Uneven distribution of the commodity reserves
• Revenge of the “Old Economy”
Taxi drivers (in Shanghai)
Decoupling of the Emerging Markets?
•
3.
China and India should follow the path of the Asian Tiger States
•
Enormous dynamics and importance of the Asian Ems for commodities
•
Conclusions
4. • Expectations
• Forecast error
17
Eugen Weinberg ZCM Research Cuprus / March 18, 2009
19. China and India
• catching up with neighbours on commodity demand
• should follow the path of other emerging Asian economies
9
8
Crude oil consumption (litres daily)
7
6
5
CHINA
4
INDIA
3
MALAYSIA
2 KOREA
TAIWAN
1
THAILAND
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18
GDP per capita (' 000 USD, real in 1995 US$)
Sources: BP Statistical Review, IMF, Commerzbank Corporates & Markets
18
Eugen Weinberg ZCM Research Cuprus / March 18, 2009
20. China and India – immense catch-up potential
5
Number of cars per 1000 inhabitants China: basic passenger car sales (in mm)
4.5
800
4
700
3.5
600
3
500
400 2.5
300 2
200
1.5
100
1
EU
USA
China
0.5
Japan
Brazil
Korea
Taiwan
India
Mexico
Indonesia
0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Sources: OECD, ACEA, CAA, Commerzbank Corporates & Markets
19
Eugen Weinberg ZCM Research Cuprus / March 18, 2009
21. New developments will change the Asian car landscape … again
[Indian market will be the strongest growing car market worldwide in the coming 20 years]
Ford Model T, 1908 Tata Nano, 2008
Source: WBMS
20
Eugen Weinberg ZCM Research Cuprus / March 18, 2009
22. Agenda
Greed (of the financial investors)
• Crude oil – economic vs. investment subject
1.
• Strong speculative interest and influence of investors
• Manipulation und speculation on commodity markets – common issue
Might (of the commodity producers)
• Are raw materials really scarce?
2.
• Uneven distribution of the commodity reserves
• Revenge of the “Old Economy”
Taxi drivers (in Shanghai)
• Decoupling of the Emerging Markets?
3.
• China and India should follow the path of the Asian Tiger States
• Enormous dynamics and importance of the Asian Ems for commodities
Conclusions
4. Expectations
•
Forecast error
•
21
Eugen Weinberg ZCM Research Cuprus / March 18, 2009
23. Oil prices might emerge much stronger from the crisis
[… a pickup in demand might come unexpected and have strong medium-term effects]
Reaction yet subdued due to lead time
500 150
Credit crunch 450
125
400
• Expansion (M&A, organic growth) plans
350 100
are not realized due to financing problems 300
75
• Smaller producing companies go bust, 250
green field projects are not reviewed at all 200 50
150
25
100
Falling output 50 0
• Prices fall below marginal costs, mining 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
closures as consequence Active oil rigs USA (Baker Huges), left WTI price (USD/barrel), right
160
Financing availability is worsening
Nationalism 1500 140
1000
• Entry barriers and handicaps (duties, 120
royalties) higher than last time at these 500
100
prices 250
80
150
Low inventories 100
60
• Massive forced selling will lead to low 50
40
inventories for commodities for the demand Aug-04 Feb-05 Aug-05 Feb-06 Aug-06 Feb-07 Aug-07 Feb-08 Aug-08
uptick (aluminum, basic metals, agriculture) CDS Gazprom (Senior, 5Y tenor), left WTI price (USD/barrel), right
Sources: Baker Hughes, CMA
22
Eugen Weinberg ZCM Research Cuprus / March 18, 2009
24. Great bull-run is over for now… Long live uptrend!
• Financial investments are susceptible to speculative excesses (to up- as well as downside)
• The current constellation and speculative excesses to the downside are not unique
S&P GSCI Commodity Index
23
Eugen Weinberg ZCM Research Cuprus / March 18, 2009
25. … provided that Chinese demand is still in place
[expectations are always speculative - we have some pieces of the puzzle but not a crystal ball]
Macro risks
Shanghai A Shares – „to the moon and back“!
Worldwide slowdown and recession
China does not compensate for the
demand fall in OECD countries …Stabilization or a dead cat-bounce?
China und India cool down massively
False inputs
Invalid data
Wrong assumptions
Manipulation
Manipulations of data
Manipulations of prices
System riska
Financial system at risk
Structured products and MTNs at risk
Legislative risks
Restrictions for commodity investments
Forecasts
Wrong picture
Wrong timing
24
Eugen Weinberg ZCM Research Cuprus / March 18, 2009
26. Agriculture commodities – Negative effect is relatively small
[Food demand is not significantly affected by the economic slowdown]
Theory of little joys illustrated
7.5 2200
2000
7.0
1800
6.5
1600
6.0
1400
5.5
1200
5.0
1000
4.5 800
4.0 600
3.5 400
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
US unemployment rate (% ), left Cocoa price (LIFFE, GBP per ton), right
Sources: LIFFE, BLS
25
Eugen Weinberg ZCM Research Cuprus / March 18, 2009
28. Commerzbank Corporates & Markets Locations
Main Offices Branches
Paris
Luxembourg
Frankfurt Amsterdam
23 rue de la Paix
25, rue Edward Steichen
DLZ - Gebäude 2 Strawinskylaan 2501
75002 Paris
2540 Luxemburg
Händlerhaus 1077 ZZ Amsterdam
France
Luxembourg
Mainzer Landstraße 153 Netherland
Phone: +33 1 4494 1700
Phone: +352 477 9111
60327 Frankfurt Phone: +31 205 574 911
Germany
Prague
Madrid
Phone: +49 69 136 44440 Budapest
Jugoslavska 1
Ps. Castellana 110
Széchenyi rakpart 8
120 21 Prague
28046 Madrid
H-1054 Budapest
London Czech Republic
Spain
Hungary
60 Gracechurch Street Phone: +420 221 193 111
Phone: +34 91 572 4700
Phone: +361 374 8100
London, EC3V 0HR
United Kingdom Singapore
Milan
Brussels
Phone: +44 20 7653 7000 8 Shenton Way
Via Cordusio 2
Blvd Louis Schmidt 87
Temasek Towers
20123 Milan
BE-1040 Brussels
Singapore 068811
Italy
Belgium
Singapore
Phone: +39 02 725 961
Phone: +32 2 743 1866
Phone: +65 63110 000
Moscow
Hong Kong
Kadashevskaya naberezhnya 14/2 Shanghai
21/F, Hong Kong Club Building
25F, World Plaza
119017 Moscow
3a Chater Road
855 Pudong South Road
Russia
Hong Kong
200120 Shanghai
Phone: +7 495 797 4800
China
China
Phone: +852 2842 9666
Phone: +86 21 5836 6666
New York
2 World Financial Center
Johannesburg
31st Floor
5 Keyes Avenue
New York, NY 10281
2196 Johannesburg
USA
South Africa
Phone: +1 212 266 7200
Phone: +27 11 328 7600
27
Eugen Weinberg ZCM Research Cuprus / March 18, 2009
29. Eugen Weinberg Zentrale
Kaiserplatz
Senior Commodity Analyst/ZCM Research Frankfurt am Main
www.commerzbank.de
Tel. +49 (0)69 / 136 434 17
Fax +49 (0)69 / 136 427 60
Postfachanschrift
Mail eugen.weinberg@commerzbank.com
60261 Frankfurt am Main
Tel. +49 (0)69 / 136-20
Mail info@commerzbank.com
Eugen Weinberg ZCM Research Cyprus / March 18, 2009