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THE EU & THE MIGRANT
CRISIS
Anastasiia Potsiluiko
Samah Filali Alaoui
Thanh Ha Nguyen
OUTLINE
Background
The situation
Impacts
EU Reactions
Suggestions
BACKGROUND
GLOBAL REFUGEE CRISIS
- the number of forcibly
displaced people
worldwide
Million
refugees
Million
asylum-seekers
Million Syrian refugees
in 2014 - the largest
refugee group
Million Afghan refugees
were the largest refugee
group for 3 decades
THE REALITY
The phrases "European migrant crisis" and "European refugee crisis"
became widely used in April 2015, when five boats carrying almost
2,000 migrants to Europe sank in the Mediterranean Sea, with a
combined death toll estimated at more than 1,200 people.
MIGRANT & REFUGEES
DEFINITIONS
An asylum seeker is defined as a person fleeing persecution
or conflict, and therefore seeking international protection
under the 1951 Refugee Convention on the Status of
Refugees
A refugee is an asylum seeker whose claim has been
approved
The UN considers migrants fleeing war or persecution to be
refugees, even before they officially receive asylum
A mixed-migration phenomenon
COMMON EUROPEAN ASYLUM
SYSTEM
Asylum seekers apply
through Asylum
Procedures
Asylum applicants
receive material
reception conditions
Applicant’s
fingerprints are
taken and sent to a
Eurodac
Interviewed by a
caseworker to determine
whether he/she may
qualify for refugee status
or subsidiary protection
If asylum is not granted
to the applicant at first
instance, this refusal
may be appealed in
court
If the court confirm this
decision, the applicant
may be returned to
his/her country of origin
or transit
If refugee status is granted,
people can access to a
residence permit
Overturning of
the negative first
instance decision
by the court
DUBLIN REGULATIONS
Asylum seekers must remain in the first European
country they enter and that country is solely responsible
for examining migrants' asylum applications
Migrants who travel to other EU states face deportation
back to the EU country they originally entered
Reformation of the Dublin Regulation
THE
SITUATION
THE SITUATION
How many migrants are going to the EU?
Where do they come from?
How do they get to the EU?
What are their destinations?
HOW MANY MIGRANTS ARE
GOING TO EUROPE
people have been reaching
Europe by sea since the
start of 2016
people reached Europe by
sea and land in 2015
HOW MANY MIGRANTS ARE
GOING TO EUROPE
new asylum applications in
Germany in 2015
people claimed asylum in 2015
applications in 2015 in Hungary
applications in 2015 in Sweden
HOW MANY MIGRANTS ARE
GOING TO EUROPE
Asylum applications per 100,000 local population in 2015
SWEDEN: more than 1,575 refugees/100,000 residents
HUNGARY: 1,508 refugees/100,000 residents
GERMANY: 520 refugees/100,000 residents
UK: 42 refugees/100,000 residents
WHERE DO THE MIGRANTS
COME FROM
56%
adult
men17%
women
27%
children
HOW DO THEY GET TO THE EU
WHAT ARE THEIR DESTINATIONS
IMPACTS
ECONOMIC IMPACTS
Migrants lead to increases in social
sector spending: Host countries must
house and educate refugees until they
become productive members of the
local economy
€8,000
per application
for first year
Refugees increase aggregate demand:
New migrants represent potential
markets for new services leading to: In
real income and GDP for their host
countries as native workers and
professional migrate to new forms and
types of work
Europe Economy
in 2016 - 2017
ECONOMIC IMPACTS
Migrants alter the local labour market: Skilled refugees may
compete with local workers for jobs, which may result in a
temporary increase in unemployment numbers
By the end of 2016
EEA labour
force
Germany
labour force
The labour market of host countries may become flexible with migrant
workers taking jobs that locals shun
Asylum seekers can only enter the labor force if they gain refugees
status (from 3 months – a few years)
ECONOMIC IMPACTS
The influx from Cuba into
the U.S. in the 1960s -
Combination of highly
skilled & low skilled
migrants was a good source
for growth
Sweden lets in 25
times as many
immigrants as the U.S
does—and economy is
in excellent shape
In both optimistic &
pessimistic scenarios there
is a positive increase in
projected income of
Germany in the long run
POLITICAL IMPACTS
Disintegration of the travel-free Schengen Agreement
• Several EU members temporarily re-established
border checks in an effort to contain the influx of
asylum seekers
• The establishment of internal border controls is
exactly the opposite of the Schengen Area’s raison
d’être. Creating tension between the member states
and affecting Trade as it delays the movement of
goods
POLITICAL IMPACTS
The German power/ EU division: by responding to the
refugee crisis independently, Germany has shown the way to
purely national responses by others
 This can turn into a downward spiral: an integrated EU
response is made more difficult as a result of go-it-alone
policies
 The resulting absence of a convincing EU response will
lead Germany and others to further act on their own
initiative, thus fuelling souverainiste forces overall
 The systematic practice of souverainisme by each member state is not
conducive to the emergence of the EU as a single strategic actor
POLITICAL IMPACTS
Advantage for the UK exit debate: the migration crisis
strengthens the UK's negotiating and increase the risk of
positive vote for the Brexit
Turkey holding the key power and this could be in its
favour: Turkey has the ability to promt further
emigration towards the EU, which gives Turkey
negotiation power
Changes in the European priorities in the Middle East:
avoiding large scale of refugee flows; eliminating ISIS;
providing the non-jihadi component of the Syrian
rebellion with the ability to resist Russian and Iranian
operations in support of Assad, while seeking his removal
by political means
SOCIAL IMPACTS
Reduction in the social welfare budget/ benefits:
Asylum seekers only have the ability to earn money
by way of social welfare, therefore it could reduce
the basic state services to citizens of the host
countries
Idleness and porverty within a refugee camp may cause
an excalation of security and social problems such as
crimes, prostitution and alcoholism
Different ethnicity, failures in communication and
understanding caused by language and culture can
form serious barriers with the local population and
create conflicts.
EU
REACTIONS
SAVING LIVES & SECURING
TRIPLED the budget for
Frontex to reinforce its
joint operations Triton and
Poseidon in order to save
lives
EU ACTION PLAN
against migrant smuggling
(2015 – 2020)
EU NAVAL OPERATION
against human smugglers
and traffickers - EUNAVFOR
Med
lives have been rescued in
the Central Mediterranean
since June 2015
arriving during the month
of August 2015, the same
as 2014
RELOCATION & ASSISTANCE
Made a commitment to
relocate 160,000 people
from Greece, Italy and the
most affected members
HOTSPOT APPROACH
in Italy and Greece to
identify, register and
fingerprint migrants &
refugees
people have been relocated until
13 January 2016
Till the end of 2015, only 1/5
hotspot in Greece (Lesvos) & 2/6
hotspots in Italy (Lampedusa and
Trapani) are operational
€1.3 million
To cover new staff for
2015
€700 million
Emergency Funding
(2015: €100 million
2016: €600 million)
SUPPORT THIRD COUNTRIES
Made a commitment to
RESETTLING 22,504
displaced persons till the
end of 2017
had been effectively resettled
until 13 January 2016
0
100
200
300
400
500
EU
Budget
Member
State
Extra support of
€500m €442.74m
Shortfall
€57.26m
Funds for
Humanitarian Aid
0
100
200
300
400
500
EU
Budget
Member
State
Extra support of
€500m €434.48m
Shortfall
€465.52m
EU Trust Fund for the
Syrian crisis
0
100
200
300
400
500
EU
Budget
Member
State
Initial Capital
Contribution
€1800m €81.27m
Shortfall
€1718.73m
Emergency Trust Fund
for Africa
COOPERATING WITH THIRD
COUNTRIES
Meeting on the
Western Balkans
Migration Route
Providing temporary shelter, food,
healthcare, water and sanitation
Managing the migration flows
together by sharing information
about flows and avoiding taking
unilateral decisions
Strengthening border
management by bilateral border-
related confidence-building
measures
COOPERATING WITH THIRD
COUNTRIES
EU – Turkey
Action Plan
Offer temporary
protection to Syrian
refugees
Strengthen
cooperation with the
EU & implement a
series of repressive
measures against
irregular migration
Mobilize funds in
the most flexible
and rapid way
Consider the visa
liberalisation
dialogue with Turkey
FURTHER REGULATION
PROPOSALS
Establish a European Border and Coast Guard –
reinforcing the mandate of Frontex
Legal migration package including revision of Blue
Card
A long-term, EU-wide system of resettlement and
relocation
A credible and effective return policy
SUGGESTIONS
SUGGESTIONS
Reinforce the resettlement and relocation systems
Considering private sponsorship
Improve the living conditions at refugee centers in Turkey
and Europe
Create new system that allows asylum-seekers to register
requests from their home countries or states adjoining the
EU
Open legal channels for economic migrants seeking work in
the EU, both high and low qualified employees
THANK YOU

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EU and Migrant Crisis

  • 1. THE EU & THE MIGRANT CRISIS Anastasiia Potsiluiko Samah Filali Alaoui Thanh Ha Nguyen
  • 4. GLOBAL REFUGEE CRISIS - the number of forcibly displaced people worldwide Million refugees Million asylum-seekers Million Syrian refugees in 2014 - the largest refugee group Million Afghan refugees were the largest refugee group for 3 decades
  • 5. THE REALITY The phrases "European migrant crisis" and "European refugee crisis" became widely used in April 2015, when five boats carrying almost 2,000 migrants to Europe sank in the Mediterranean Sea, with a combined death toll estimated at more than 1,200 people.
  • 6. MIGRANT & REFUGEES DEFINITIONS An asylum seeker is defined as a person fleeing persecution or conflict, and therefore seeking international protection under the 1951 Refugee Convention on the Status of Refugees A refugee is an asylum seeker whose claim has been approved The UN considers migrants fleeing war or persecution to be refugees, even before they officially receive asylum A mixed-migration phenomenon
  • 7. COMMON EUROPEAN ASYLUM SYSTEM Asylum seekers apply through Asylum Procedures Asylum applicants receive material reception conditions Applicant’s fingerprints are taken and sent to a Eurodac Interviewed by a caseworker to determine whether he/she may qualify for refugee status or subsidiary protection If asylum is not granted to the applicant at first instance, this refusal may be appealed in court If the court confirm this decision, the applicant may be returned to his/her country of origin or transit If refugee status is granted, people can access to a residence permit Overturning of the negative first instance decision by the court
  • 8. DUBLIN REGULATIONS Asylum seekers must remain in the first European country they enter and that country is solely responsible for examining migrants' asylum applications Migrants who travel to other EU states face deportation back to the EU country they originally entered Reformation of the Dublin Regulation
  • 10. THE SITUATION How many migrants are going to the EU? Where do they come from? How do they get to the EU? What are their destinations?
  • 11. HOW MANY MIGRANTS ARE GOING TO EUROPE people have been reaching Europe by sea since the start of 2016 people reached Europe by sea and land in 2015
  • 12. HOW MANY MIGRANTS ARE GOING TO EUROPE new asylum applications in Germany in 2015 people claimed asylum in 2015 applications in 2015 in Hungary applications in 2015 in Sweden
  • 13. HOW MANY MIGRANTS ARE GOING TO EUROPE Asylum applications per 100,000 local population in 2015 SWEDEN: more than 1,575 refugees/100,000 residents HUNGARY: 1,508 refugees/100,000 residents GERMANY: 520 refugees/100,000 residents UK: 42 refugees/100,000 residents
  • 14. WHERE DO THE MIGRANTS COME FROM 56% adult men17% women 27% children
  • 15. HOW DO THEY GET TO THE EU
  • 16. WHAT ARE THEIR DESTINATIONS
  • 18. ECONOMIC IMPACTS Migrants lead to increases in social sector spending: Host countries must house and educate refugees until they become productive members of the local economy €8,000 per application for first year Refugees increase aggregate demand: New migrants represent potential markets for new services leading to: In real income and GDP for their host countries as native workers and professional migrate to new forms and types of work Europe Economy in 2016 - 2017
  • 19. ECONOMIC IMPACTS Migrants alter the local labour market: Skilled refugees may compete with local workers for jobs, which may result in a temporary increase in unemployment numbers By the end of 2016 EEA labour force Germany labour force The labour market of host countries may become flexible with migrant workers taking jobs that locals shun Asylum seekers can only enter the labor force if they gain refugees status (from 3 months – a few years)
  • 20. ECONOMIC IMPACTS The influx from Cuba into the U.S. in the 1960s - Combination of highly skilled & low skilled migrants was a good source for growth Sweden lets in 25 times as many immigrants as the U.S does—and economy is in excellent shape In both optimistic & pessimistic scenarios there is a positive increase in projected income of Germany in the long run
  • 21. POLITICAL IMPACTS Disintegration of the travel-free Schengen Agreement • Several EU members temporarily re-established border checks in an effort to contain the influx of asylum seekers • The establishment of internal border controls is exactly the opposite of the Schengen Area’s raison d’être. Creating tension between the member states and affecting Trade as it delays the movement of goods
  • 22. POLITICAL IMPACTS The German power/ EU division: by responding to the refugee crisis independently, Germany has shown the way to purely national responses by others  This can turn into a downward spiral: an integrated EU response is made more difficult as a result of go-it-alone policies  The resulting absence of a convincing EU response will lead Germany and others to further act on their own initiative, thus fuelling souverainiste forces overall  The systematic practice of souverainisme by each member state is not conducive to the emergence of the EU as a single strategic actor
  • 23. POLITICAL IMPACTS Advantage for the UK exit debate: the migration crisis strengthens the UK's negotiating and increase the risk of positive vote for the Brexit Turkey holding the key power and this could be in its favour: Turkey has the ability to promt further emigration towards the EU, which gives Turkey negotiation power Changes in the European priorities in the Middle East: avoiding large scale of refugee flows; eliminating ISIS; providing the non-jihadi component of the Syrian rebellion with the ability to resist Russian and Iranian operations in support of Assad, while seeking his removal by political means
  • 24. SOCIAL IMPACTS Reduction in the social welfare budget/ benefits: Asylum seekers only have the ability to earn money by way of social welfare, therefore it could reduce the basic state services to citizens of the host countries Idleness and porverty within a refugee camp may cause an excalation of security and social problems such as crimes, prostitution and alcoholism Different ethnicity, failures in communication and understanding caused by language and culture can form serious barriers with the local population and create conflicts.
  • 26. SAVING LIVES & SECURING TRIPLED the budget for Frontex to reinforce its joint operations Triton and Poseidon in order to save lives EU ACTION PLAN against migrant smuggling (2015 – 2020) EU NAVAL OPERATION against human smugglers and traffickers - EUNAVFOR Med lives have been rescued in the Central Mediterranean since June 2015 arriving during the month of August 2015, the same as 2014
  • 27. RELOCATION & ASSISTANCE Made a commitment to relocate 160,000 people from Greece, Italy and the most affected members HOTSPOT APPROACH in Italy and Greece to identify, register and fingerprint migrants & refugees people have been relocated until 13 January 2016 Till the end of 2015, only 1/5 hotspot in Greece (Lesvos) & 2/6 hotspots in Italy (Lampedusa and Trapani) are operational €1.3 million To cover new staff for 2015 €700 million Emergency Funding (2015: €100 million 2016: €600 million)
  • 28. SUPPORT THIRD COUNTRIES Made a commitment to RESETTLING 22,504 displaced persons till the end of 2017 had been effectively resettled until 13 January 2016 0 100 200 300 400 500 EU Budget Member State Extra support of €500m €442.74m Shortfall €57.26m Funds for Humanitarian Aid 0 100 200 300 400 500 EU Budget Member State Extra support of €500m €434.48m Shortfall €465.52m EU Trust Fund for the Syrian crisis 0 100 200 300 400 500 EU Budget Member State Initial Capital Contribution €1800m €81.27m Shortfall €1718.73m Emergency Trust Fund for Africa
  • 29. COOPERATING WITH THIRD COUNTRIES Meeting on the Western Balkans Migration Route Providing temporary shelter, food, healthcare, water and sanitation Managing the migration flows together by sharing information about flows and avoiding taking unilateral decisions Strengthening border management by bilateral border- related confidence-building measures
  • 30. COOPERATING WITH THIRD COUNTRIES EU – Turkey Action Plan Offer temporary protection to Syrian refugees Strengthen cooperation with the EU & implement a series of repressive measures against irregular migration Mobilize funds in the most flexible and rapid way Consider the visa liberalisation dialogue with Turkey
  • 31. FURTHER REGULATION PROPOSALS Establish a European Border and Coast Guard – reinforcing the mandate of Frontex Legal migration package including revision of Blue Card A long-term, EU-wide system of resettlement and relocation A credible and effective return policy
  • 33. SUGGESTIONS Reinforce the resettlement and relocation systems Considering private sponsorship Improve the living conditions at refugee centers in Turkey and Europe Create new system that allows asylum-seekers to register requests from their home countries or states adjoining the EU Open legal channels for economic migrants seeking work in the EU, both high and low qualified employees