By 2020, advances in technologies like analytics, IoT, and smart machines will provide faster and cheaper digital transformation in the energy industry, though CIOs will still face economic challenges. Also by 2020, the most valuable energy company may own no assets, 40% of field assets will be managed through 3D models, and over 50% of drilling will be controlled by algorithms. Additionally, disruptions from digital technologies, renewable energy growth, and extreme weather will drive changes across the utilities sector in areas like workforce skills, customer experience, and outage management.

1. Analyst Energy Predictions 2016
Christopher Manfredi

2. Role of the CIO and the IT organization in upstream oil
and gas will be to initiate change, foster relationships
and change the culture of the organization
- Gartner: Industry Top Predicts 2016

3. Advances in key enabling technologies, such as advanced analytics, the
Internet of Things, smart machines and wearable devices, are providing
faster, better and cheaper pathways for digitalization. Unfortunately, CIOs
will still need to operate under difficult economic conditions
- Gartner: Industry Top Predicts 2016

4. By 2020, the most valuable energy utility in the world
will not own any network or generation assets
- Gartner: Industry Top Predicts 2016

5. By 2018, 50% of customers will download utility mobile
apps, but only 10% will use them on a regular basis
- Gartner: Industry Top Predicts 2016

6. By 2020, 40% of field assets will be monitored and
managed by interactions with virtual 3D models
- Gartner: Industry Top Predicts 2016

7. By 2020, more than 50% of well bore drilling
activities on electric rigs will be controlled primarily
by algorithm and secondarily by human expertise.
- Gartner: Industry Top Predicts 2016

8. By 2020, 30% of upstream CIOs will adopt scenario
planning methodology to guide digital innovation and
future-proof their companies against market volatility.
- Gartner: Industry Top Predicts 2016

9. "The oil bust will kill off 19 million barrels
per day (MMBD) of future oil production."
- Will Oil Production Fall Off A Cliff?

10. 93.6 MMBD in 2014 to an expected 86.1 MMBD
in 2017 and down to 80.4 MMBD in 2020
- Will Oil Production Fall Off A Cliff?

11. More Than 90% of Oil and Gas Companies Will
Have a Standard Set of Cybersecurity Applications
in Operation Within the Next 16 Months
- IDC Worldwide Oil & Gas Predictions 2016

12. 25% of All Oil and Gas Companies Will Be Using Cognitive
Advanced Analytics Approaches in the Oilfield by 2019 to
Improve Performance and Production by 10%
- IDC Worldwide Oil & Gas Predictions 2016

13. The Top 50% of Oil and Gas Companies Will Double
Down on Oilfield Operations Automation to
Double the Productivity of Those Operations by 2020
- IDC Worldwide Oil & Gas Predictions 2016

14. - IDC Worldwide Oil & Gas Predictions 2016
With Growth in Energy Demand Across ASEAN and
India, 30% of Oil and Gas Companies Operating in
Asia Will Seek Capabilities to Execute by 2019

15. - IDC Worldwide Oil & Gas Predictions 2016
By 2018, 75% of Oil and Gas Organizations with
More Than 10 Operating Wells Will Have Digital
Twins of Each Individual Platform

16. - 2016 Predictions for the Oil and Gas Industry
In the next three years, operating in the cloud will become the norm across
the oil and gas industry. Wireless technology was the first big step, and the
cloud is soon to follow as it’s both more efficient and cost effective

17. - 2016 Predictions for the Oil and Gas Industry
Over the next year, less mature or smaller organizations will continue
to react more extremely and cut spending, even shutting down for a
period of time to save the business. The bigger players will guard
budgets and reduce or delay planned maintenance, expansion projects
and other business transformations in order to maintain critical activities

18. - 2016 Predictions for the Oil and Gas Industry
Industrial organizations will reap the benefits of big
data. As affordable sensors have been introduced to the
market, more data has become available to industrial
organizations.

19. - 2016 Predictions for the Oil and Gas Industry
3D printing will emerge as an innovative alternative for
companies in the oil and gas industry in 2016, as they
scrutinize their supply chains and engineering practices.

20. Not just coal plant retirements, but
perhaps more nuclear plants shuttering
Electric Utility Trends And Predictions

21. Electric Utility Trends And Predictions
Growing interest in energy
imbalance markets

22. - IDC Worldwide Oil & Gas Predictions 2016
Growing utility interest in
microgrids
Electric Utility Trends And Predictions

23. Continued merger activity into 2016
Electric Utility Trends And Predictions

24. Electric Utility Trends And Predictions
Disillusionment with carbon
capture as a way to clean up coal

25. By 2018, 20% of Energy Consumers Will Purchase New
Energy-Related Products and Services from Utilities and
Their Affiliates, Opening Up New Revenue Streams
IDC FutureScape: Worldwide Utilities 2016 Predictions

26. By 2018, 70% of Utilities Will Have Launched Major Digital
Transformation Initiatives That Address at Least One of These
Three Areas: Omni-Experience, Operating Model, or
Information
IDC FutureScape: Worldwide Utilities 2016 Predictions

27. In 2016, 70% of Utilities Will Need to Externally Source
Talent from the Ecosystem to Make Use of Advanced
Analytics, Cognitive Systems, Cloud, and Cybersecurity
IDC FutureScape: Worldwide Utilities 2016 Predictions

28. In 2019, 50% of Utilities Will Spend 5% or More of Their
Capex on Operational Technologies and the Internet of Things
(IoT) to Optimize Distributed Energy Resources, Field
Services, and Asset Operations
IDC FutureScape: Worldwide Utilities 2016 Predictions

29. By 2017, Forced by Extreme Weather Events, 75% of
Utilities Will Make New IT Investments to Predict Outages,
Reduce Their Duration by 5%–10%, and Improve Customer
Communications
IDC FutureScape: Worldwide Utilities 2016 Predictions

30. By 2018, 80% of Generation and/or Transmission
Companies Will Require Real-Time Visibility and Rapid
Prediction of Demand Fluctuations to Protect Themselves
Against Price Volatility
IDC FutureScape: Worldwide Utilities 2016 Predictions

31. IDC FutureScape: Worldwide Utilities 2016 Predictions
In 2016, 30% of Utilities Will Leverage Digital
Twins for Asset Design, Construction,
Operation, Maintenance, and Decommissioning

32. References
- Predicts 2015: Upstream Oil and Gas CIOs Must Prepare for Data-Driven Optimization
- Will Oil Production Fall Off A Cliff?
- Industry Top Predicts 2016: The Technology Foundation for Digital Business Will Accelerate Industry
Fluidity
- IDC FutureScape: Worldwide Oil and Gas 2016 Predictions
- 2016 Predictions for the Oil and Gas Industry
- Five Possible Surprises In Energy
- Electric Utility Trends And Predictions
- IDC FutureScape: Worldwide Utilities 2016 Predictions