Cuban Restructuring: The Economic Risks
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The document discusses the economic risks of restructuring in Cuba, including unemployment from higher productivity, monetary instability and inflation, fiscal crisis from loss of social protection capacity, and potential economic stagnation. It analyzes trends in these areas from 1990-2011 and finds that while the risk of fiscal crisis and unemployment may be low due to commitments to employment and fiscal discipline, distorted prices and constraints on investment could lead to stagnation without disruption to the economic system. The key challenge is managing disruption through an evolutionary institutional process.
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The document summarizes a presentation about U.S. food and agricultural exports to Cuba from 2000-2011. It finds that exports increased dramatically after 2001 when trade was allowed, with the U.S. becoming Cuba's top supplier by 2002. However, U.S. exports have declined since 2008 as Cuba imports more from other countries like Brazil, which surpassed the U.S. as Cuba's largest supplier in 2011. The future of U.S. exports is uncertain as Cuba aims to reduce imports and other countries invest in Cuba's agricultural sector.
Planning and Market in the Cuban Economy
This document discusses the relationship between economic planning and markets in Cuba. It outlines three common perspectives on this relationship: those that prioritize planning over markets, those that prioritize markets over planning, and those that see an objective relationship between the two. The document then examines Cuba's experience with central planning and the need for economic reforms. While reforms have introduced some market elements, the document argues planning still dominates and market functions are limited. It analyzes the segmentation of Cuba's internal food market and challenges in supplying Havana. Overall, the document concludes Cuba's guidelines recognize the role of markets but still lack a full understanding and resolution of how to incorporate markets effectively.
Actualización in Perspective
The document summarizes the evolution of Cuba's socialist system and economy from 1960 to the present in distinct periods:
- 1960-1970 saw the rise of Cuban socialism following the revolution and consolidation of power under Fidel Castro with nationalization of industries and adoption of socialist policies.
- 1970-1985 was a period of institutionalization where Cuba formalized close economic and political ties with the Soviet Union and adopted a Soviet-style centralized planned economy.
- In the 1990s, Cuba faced a "Special Period" of economic crisis following the collapse of the Soviet Union, forcing reforms like legalization of the dollar and growth in tourism.
- Since 2008 under Raúl Castro, Cuba has pursued a policy
Em cuny may 21st 2012 to print
The document discusses the economic risks of restructuring in Cuba, including unemployment from higher productivity, monetary instability and inflation, fiscal crisis from loss of social protection capacity, and potential economic stagnation. It analyzes trends in these areas from 1990-2011 through various data charts and graphs. While the risks of unemployment, inflation, and fiscal crisis are considered low due to policy commitments, the fragmented economy and potential need for disruption to spur growth could lead to stagnation unless changes are managed through an evolutionary institutional process.
Relanzamiento del cuentapropismo en medio del ajuste estructural
El documento analiza el relanzamiento del sector cuentapropista en Cuba en 2010 y su papel en el ajuste estructural de la economía. Resumiendo: 1) El sector cuentapropista experimentó un fuerte crecimiento tras la nueva apertura en 2010 pero persisten limitaciones como la falta de acceso a insumos e importaciones. 2) El sector juega un papel importante en el ajuste fiscal y la absorción de empleo, pero se necesitan mayores transformaciones estructurales. 3) A pesar de su contribución, las perspectivas apuntan
Microfinance in Cuba
The document discusses Cuba's new credit policy since 2011 that aims to provide financial resources to the private sector through microloans. It outlines the characteristics of the new credits which will be addressed through three banks. While this policy could help spur private business and economic growth, international microfinance faces challenges related to scope, costs, technology and more. Cuba will need to address institutional weaknesses in its banking system and restrictions on the private sector to fully realize the potential benefits of microfinance. Complementary policies and support from other organizations will also be required for sustainable expansion of microloans.
Measuring Cuba's Agricultural Transformations: Preliminary Findings
1) The document outlines Cuba's agricultural reforms since 2008 that aimed to increase food self-sufficiency and exports through decentralized management and greater autonomy for non-state farmers.
2) Preliminary findings show that between 2008-2010, agricultural output declined in most crop categories in both state and non-state sectors, and yields experienced downward trends across sectors.
3) Regression analysis found area under cultivation was a significant predictor of output for rice only, suggesting it is a poor predictor for most crops.
Non-State Enterprises in Cuba: Current Situation and Purposes
This document discusses non-state enterprises in Cuba, including their current situation and prospects. It defines non-state enterprises as those not managed by the state and examines precedents like over 147,000 self-employed workers and 362,000 private farmers. Recent changes expanded licenses for self-employment and allowed cooperatives in new industries. Prospects include more opportunities for non-agricultural cooperatives and allowing coops to provide services currently handled by state enterprises.
Impacto de los Lineamientos de la Política Económico y Social en la producció...
Este documento analiza el impacto de los Lineamientos de la Política Económica y Social en la producción nacional de alimentos en Cuba. Resume los resultados agrícolas entre 2009-2011, señalando que a pesar de las medidas implementadas, la producción ha disminuido o se ha mantenido estable debido a obstáculos no resueltos como la no realización de la propiedad y la falta de enfoque sistémico. Propone soluciones como un mercado de insumos y la descentralización de decisiones para lograr mayores incrementos product
Seminar on prospects for Cuba's Economy
This document summarizes a seminar on Cuba's economic prospects. It outlines Cuba's current difficult economic situation, including low wages, deindustrialization, and reliance on imports. It describes reforms under Raul Castro to liberalize self-employment and reduce the state sector. While the reforms are a step in the right direction, implementation has been slow and uncertainties remain. Cuba's economic future will depend on factors like foreign investment, Venezuela's support, and engagement with countries like China and Brazil.
Update on Cuba's Non-Sugar Agricultural Sector
The document provides an update on Cuba's non-sugar agricultural sector between 2005-2010. It finds:
1) Declining agricultural output and yields, due in part to economic inefficiencies and lack of incentives.
2) Cuba implemented policy reforms from 2007-2011 to address issues, including price increases and transfers of idle lands.
3) Recent performance is mixed, with some crops showing recovery but yields continuing to decline.
4) Non-state sector sales in agricultural markets have been increasing but remain below one-quarter of total sales.
Teatro cCubano en el Transmilenio Imagenes
El documento lista varias obras de teatro cubanas y los grupos teatrales que las produjeron entre 1990 y 2010. Algunas de las obras mencionadas son "Otra tempestad", "Charenton", "Woyzeck", "Las amargas lágrimas de Petra Von Kant", "Chamaco", "Final de partida", "Talco", "Pájaros de la playa" y "Visiones de la Cubanosofía". Los grupos teatrales citados incluyen Teatro Buendía, Teatro de la Luna, Teatro El Público y Argos Teatro.
Emily Morris
The document summarizes forecasts for Cuba's economy over different timeframes.
Over two years, the economy is expected to remain state-dominated and stagnant, assuming regime survival and no major upheavals from Venezuela or the US. Short-term forecasts predict average annual growth in output and expenditure.
Within five years, the economy is projected to become more mixed but still distorted and contradictory, with new activity and investment rising but external vulnerabilities remaining, assuming continued reforms and Venezuela's weakening. Medium-term forecasts anticipate average annual growth.
Looking 20 years out, reforms are projected to result in a mixed economy with a unified peso, more social protection, and diversification reducing external reliance, assuming Venezuela's
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Un nuevo escenario, un nuevo modelo agrícola cubano
Un nuevo escenario, un nuevo modelo agrícola cubano
Comments -- "Forms of Property in the Cuban Economy - Agriculture"
Comments -- "Forms of Property in the Cuban Economy - Agriculture"
From Planning to Market: Paths in Central and Eastern Europe?
From Planning to Market: Paths in Central and Eastern Europe?
U.S. Food and Agricultural Exports to Cuba - Uncertain Times Ahead
U.S. Food and Agricultural Exports to Cuba - Uncertain Times Ahead
Relanzamiento del cuentapropismo en medio del ajuste estructural
Relanzamiento del cuentapropismo en medio del ajuste estructural
Measuring Cuba's Agricultural Transformations: Preliminary Findings
Measuring Cuba's Agricultural Transformations: Preliminary Findings
Non-State Enterprises in Cuba: Current Situation and Purposes
Non-State Enterprises in Cuba: Current Situation and Purposes
Impacto de los Lineamientos de la Política Económico y Social en la producció...
Impacto de los Lineamientos de la Política Económico y Social en la producció...
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OJP data from firms like Vicinity Jobs have emerged as a complement to traditional sources of labour demand data, such as the Job Vacancy and Wages Survey (JVWS). Ibrahim Abuallail, PhD Candidate, University of Ottawa, presented research relating to bias in OJPs and a proposed approach to effectively adjust OJP data to complement existing official data (such as from the JVWS) and improve the measurement of labour demand.真实可查(nwu毕业证书)美国西北大学毕业证学位证书范本原版一模一样
原版定制【微信:bwp0011】《(nwu毕业证书)美国西北大学毕业证学位证书》【微信:bwp0011】成绩单 、雅思、外壳、留信学历认证永久存档查询，采用学校原版纸张、特殊工艺完全按照原版一比一制作（包括：隐形水印，阴影底纹，钢印LOGO烫金烫银，LOGO烫金烫银复合重叠，文字图案浮雕，激光镭射，紫外荧光，温感，复印防伪）行业标杆！精益求精，诚心合作，真诚制作！多年品质 ,按需精细制作，24小时接单,全套进口原装设备，十五年致力于帮助留学生解决难题，业务范围有加拿大、英国、澳洲、韩国、美国、新加坡，新西兰等学历材料，包您满意。
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三、进国企，银行，事业单位，考公务员等等，这些单位是必需要提供真实教育部认证的，办理教育部认证所需资料众多且烦琐，所有材料您都必须提供原件，我们凭借丰富的经验，快捷的绿色通道帮您快速整合材料，让您少走弯路。
留信网认证的作用:
1:该专业认证可证明留学生真实身份
2:同时对留学生所学专业登记给予评定
3:国家专业人才认证中心颁发入库证书
4:这个认证书并且可以归档倒地方
5:凡事获得留信网入网的信息将会逐步更新到个人身份内，将在公安局网内查询个人身份证信息后，同步读取人才网入库信息
6:个人职称评审加20分
7:个人信誉贷款加10分
8:在国家人才网主办的国家网络招聘大会中纳入资料，供国家高端企业选择人才
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我们所定的价格是非常合理的，而且我们现在做得单子大多数都是代理和回头客户介绍的所以一般现在有新的单子 我给客户的都是第一手的代理价格，因为我想坦诚对待大家 不想跟大家在价格方面浪费时间
对于老客户或者被老客户介绍过来的朋友，我们都会适当给一些优惠。
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"Does Foreign Direct Investment Negatively Affect Preservation of Culture in the Global South? Case Studies in Thailand and Cambodia."
Do elements of globalization, such as Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), negatively affect the ability of countries in the Global South to preserve their culture? This research aims to answer this question by employing a cross-sectional comparative case study analysis utilizing methods of difference. Thailand and Cambodia are compared as they are in the same region and have a similar culture. The metric of difference between Thailand and Cambodia is their ability to preserve their culture. This ability is operationalized by their respective attitudes towards FDI; Thailand imposes stringent regulations and limitations on FDI while Cambodia does not hesitate to accept most FDI and imposes fewer limitations. The evidence from this study suggests that FDI from globally influential countries with high gross domestic products (GDPs) (e.g. China, U.S.) challenges the ability of countries with lower GDPs (e.g. Cambodia) to protect their culture. Furthermore, the ability, or lack thereof, of the receiving countries to protect their culture is amplified by the existence and implementation of restrictive FDI policies imposed by their governments.
My study abroad in Bali, Indonesia, inspired this research topic as I noticed how globalization is changing the culture of its people. I learned their language and way of life which helped me understand the beauty and importance of cultural preservation. I believe we could all benefit from learning new perspectives as they could help us ideate solutions to contemporary issues and empathize with others.Independent Study - College of Wooster Research (2023-2024)
"Does Foreign Direct Investment Negatively Affect Preservation of Culture in the Global South? Case Studies in Thailand and Cambodia."
Do elements of globalization, such as Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), negatively affect the ability of countries in the Global South to preserve their culture? This research aims to answer this question by employing a cross-sectional comparative case study analysis utilizing methods of difference. Thailand and Cambodia are compared as they are in the same region and have a similar culture. The metric of difference between Thailand and Cambodia is their ability to preserve their culture. This ability is operationalized by their respective attitudes towards FDI; Thailand imposes stringent regulations and limitations on FDI while Cambodia does not hesitate to accept most FDI and imposes fewer limitations. The evidence from this study suggests that FDI from globally influential countries with high gross domestic products (GDPs) (e.g. China, U.S.) challenges the ability of countries with lower GDPs (e.g. Cambodia) to protect their culture. Furthermore, the ability, or lack thereof, of the receiving countries to protect their culture is amplified by the existence and implementation of restrictive FDI policies imposed by their governments.
My study abroad in Bali, Indonesia, inspired this research topic as I noticed how globalization is changing the culture of its people. I learned their language and way of life which helped me understand the beauty and importance of cultural preservation. I believe we could all benefit from learning new perspectives as they could help us ideate solutions to contemporary issues and empathize with others.
一比一原版宾夕法尼亚大学毕业证(UPenn毕业证书)学历如何办理
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【业务选择办理准则】
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三、进国企，银行，事业单位，考公务员等等，这些单位是必需要提供真实教育部认证的，办理教育部认证所需资料众多且烦琐，所有材料您都必须提供原件，我们凭借丰富的经验，快捷的绿色通道帮您快速整合材料，让您少走弯路。
留信网认证的作用:
1:该专业认证可证明留学生真实身份
2:同时对留学生所学专业登记给予评定
3:国家专业人才认证中心颁发入库证书
4:这个认证书并且可以归档倒地方
5:凡事获得留信网入网的信息将会逐步更新到个人身份内，将在公安局网内查询个人身份证信息后，同步读取人才网入库信息
6:个人职称评审加20分
7:个人信誉贷款加10分
8:在国家人才网主办的国家网络招聘大会中纳入资料，供国家高端企业选择人才
留信网服务项目：
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2、国（境）学习人员提供就业推荐信服务
3、留学人员区块链存储服务
【关于价格问题（保证一手价格）】
我们所定的价格是非常合理的，而且我们现在做得单子大多数都是代理和回头客户介绍的所以一般现在有新的单子 我给客户的都是第一手的代理价格，因为我想坦诚对待大家 不想跟大家在价格方面浪费时间
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快速制作美国迈阿密大学牛津分校毕业证文凭证书英文原版一模一样
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留信网认证的作用:
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2:同时对留学生所学专业登记给予评定
3:国家专业人才认证中心颁发入库证书
4:这个认证书并且可以归档倒地方
5:凡事获得留信网入网的信息将会逐步更新到个人身份内，将在公安局网内查询个人身份证信息后，同步读取人才网入库信息
6:个人职称评审加20分
7:个人信誉贷款加10分
8:在国家人才网主办的国家网络招聘大会中纳入资料，供国家高端企业选择人才
1比1复刻(ksu毕业证书)美国堪萨斯州立大学毕业证本科文凭证书原版一模一样
原版定制【微信:bwp0011】《(ksu毕业证书)美国堪萨斯州立大学毕业证本科文凭证书》【微信:bwp0011】成绩单 、雅思、外壳、留信学历认证永久存档查询，采用学校原版纸张、特殊工艺完全按照原版一比一制作（包括：隐形水印，阴影底纹，钢印LOGO烫金烫银，LOGO烫金烫银复合重叠，文字图案浮雕，激光镭射，紫外荧光，温感，复印防伪）行业标杆！精益求精，诚心合作，真诚制作！多年品质 ,按需精细制作，24小时接单,全套进口原装设备，十五年致力于帮助留学生解决难题，业务范围有加拿大、英国、澳洲、韩国、美国、新加坡，新西兰等学历材料，包您满意。
【业务选择办理准则】
一、工作未确定，回国需先给父母、亲戚朋友看下文凭的情况，办理一份就读学校的毕业证【微信bwp0011】文凭即可
二、回国进私企、外企、自己做生意的情况，这些单位是不查询毕业证真伪的，而且国内没有渠道去查询国外文凭的真假，也不需要提供真实教育部认证。鉴于此，办理一份毕业证【微信bwp0011】即可
三、进国企，银行，事业单位，考公务员等等，这些单位是必需要提供真实教育部认证的，办理教育部认证所需资料众多且烦琐，所有材料您都必须提供原件，我们凭借丰富的经验，快捷的绿色通道帮您快速整合材料，让您少走弯路。
留信网认证的作用:
1:该专业认证可证明留学生真实身份
2:同时对留学生所学专业登记给予评定
3:国家专业人才认证中心颁发入库证书
4:这个认证书并且可以归档倒地方
5:凡事获得留信网入网的信息将会逐步更新到个人身份内，将在公安局网内查询个人身份证信息后，同步读取人才网入库信息
6:个人职称评审加20分
7:个人信誉贷款加10分
8:在国家人才网主办的国家网络招聘大会中纳入资料，供国家高端企业选择人才
【关于价格问题（保证一手价格）】
我们所定的价格是非常合理的，而且我们现在做得单子大多数都是代理和回头客户介绍的所以一般现在有新的单子 我给客户的都是第一手的代理价格，因为我想坦诚对待大家 不想跟大家在价格方面浪费时间
对于老客户或者被老客户介绍过来的朋友，我们都会适当给一些优惠。
一比一原版美国新罕布什尔大学(unh)毕业证学历认证真实可查
永久可查学历认证【微信：A575476】【美国新罕布什尔大学(unh)毕业证成绩单Offer】【微信：A575476】（留信学历认证永久存档查询）采用学校原版纸张、特殊工艺完全按照原版一比一制作（包括：隐形水印，阴影底纹，钢印LOGO烫金烫银，LOGO烫金烫银复合重叠，文字图案浮雕，激光镭射，紫外荧光，温感，复印防伪）行业标杆！精益求精，诚心合作，真诚制作！多年品质 ,按需精细制作，24小时接单,全套进口原装设备，十五年致力于帮助留学生解决难题，业务范围有加拿大、英国、澳洲、韩国、美国、新加坡，新西兰等学历材料，包您满意。
【业务选择办理准则】
一、工作未确定，回国需先给父母、亲戚朋友看下文凭的情况，办理一份就读学校的毕业证【微信：A575476】文凭即可
二、回国进私企、外企、自己做生意的情况，这些单位是不查询毕业证真伪的，而且国内没有渠道去查询国外文凭的真假，也不需要提供真实教育部认证。鉴于此，办理一份毕业证【微信：A575476】即可
三、进国企，银行，事业单位，考公务员等等，这些单位是必需要提供真实教育部认证的，办理教育部认证所需资料众多且烦琐，所有材料您都必须提供原件，我们凭借丰富的经验，快捷的绿色通道帮您快速整合材料，让您少走弯路。
留信网认证的作用:
1:该专业认证可证明留学生真实身份
2:同时对留学生所学专业登记给予评定
3:国家专业人才认证中心颁发入库证书
4:这个认证书并且可以归档倒地方
5:凡事获得留信网入网的信息将会逐步更新到个人身份内，将在公安局网内查询个人身份证信息后，同步读取人才网入库信息
6:个人职称评审加20分
7:个人信誉贷款加10分
8:在国家人才网主办的国家网络招聘大会中纳入资料，供国家高端企业选择人才
→ 【关于价格问题（保证一手价格）
我们所定的价格是非常合理的，而且我们现在做得单子大多数都是代理和回头客户介绍的所以一般现在有新的单子 我给客户的都是第一手的代理价格，因为我想坦诚对待大家 不想跟大家在价格方面浪费时间
对于老客户或者被老客户介绍过来的朋友，我们都会适当给一些优惠。
选择实体注册公司办理，更放心，更安全！我们的承诺：可来公司面谈，可签订合同，会陪同客户一起到教育部认证窗口递交认证材料，客户在教育部官方认证查询网站查询到认证通过结果后付款，不成功不收费！
South Dakota State University degree offer diploma Transcript
办理美国SDSU毕业证书制作南达科他州立大学假文凭定制Q微168899991做SDSU留信网教留服认证海牙认证改SDSU成绩单GPA做SDSU假学位证假文凭高仿毕业证GRE代考如何申请南达科他州立大学South Dakota State University degree offer diploma Transcript
Fabular Frames and the Four Ratio Problem
Digital, interactive art showing the struggle of a society in providing for its present population while also saving planetary resources for future generations. Spread across several frames, the art is actually the rendering of real and speculative data. The stereographic projections change shape in response to prompts and provocations. Visitors interact with the model through speculative statements about how to increase savings across communities, regions, ecosystems and environments. Their fabulations combined with random noise, i.e. factors beyond control, have a dramatic effect on the societal transition. Things get better. Things get worse. The aim is to give visitors a new grasp and feel of the ongoing struggles in democracies around the world.
Stunning art in the small multiples format brings out the spatiotemporal nature of societal transitions, against backdrop issues such as energy, housing, waste, farmland and forest. In each frame we see hopeful and frightful interplays between spending and saving. Problems emerge when one of the two parts of the existential anaglyph rapidly shrinks like Arctic ice, as factors cross thresholds. Ecological wealth and intergenerational equity areFour at stake. Not enough spending could mean economic stress, social unrest and political conflict. Not enough saving and there will be climate breakdown and ‘bankruptcy’. So where does speculative design start and the gambling and betting end? Behind each fabular frame is a four ratio problem. Each ratio reflects the level of sacrifice and self-restraint a society is willing to accept, against promises of prosperity and freedom. Some values seem to stabilise a frame while others cause collapse. Get the ratios right and we can have it all. Get them wrong and things get more desperate.
The state of welfare Resolution Foundation Event
How has Britain’s safety net changed since 2010 and what comes next?
Who Is Abhay Bhutada, MD of Poonawalla Fincorp
Abhay Bhutada, the Managing Director of Poonawalla Fincorp Limited, is an accomplished leader with over 15 years of experience in commercial and retail lending. A Qualified Chartered Accountant, he has been pivotal in leveraging technology to enhance financial services. Starting his career at Bank of India, he later founded TAB Capital Limited and co-founded Poonawalla Finance Private Limited, emphasizing digital lending. Under his leadership, Poonawalla Fincorp achieved a 'AAA' credit rating, integrating acquisitions and emphasizing corporate governance. Actively involved in industry forums and CSR initiatives, Abhay has been recognized with awards like "Young Entrepreneur of India 2017" and "40 under 40 Most Influential Leader for 2020-21." Personally, he values mindfulness, enjoys gardening, yoga, and sees every day as an opportunity for growth and improvement.
Ending stagnation: How to boost prosperity across Scotland
A toxic combination of 15 years of low growth, and four decades of high inequality, has left Britain poorer and falling behind its peers. Productivity growth is weak and public investment is low, while wages today are no higher than they were before the financial crisis. Britain needs a new economic strategy to lift itself out of stagnation.
Scotland is in many ways a microcosm of this challenge. It has become a hub for creative industries, is home to several world-class universities and a thriving community of businesses – strengths that need to be harness and leveraged. But it also has high levels of deprivation, with homelessness reaching a record high and nearly half a million people living in very deep poverty last year. Scotland won’t be truly thriving unless it finds ways to ensure that all its inhabitants benefit from growth and investment. This is the central challenge facing policy makers both in Holyrood and Westminster.
What should a new national economic strategy for Scotland include? What would the pursuit of stronger economic growth mean for local, national and UK-wide policy makers? How will economic change affect the jobs we do, the places we live and the businesses we work for? And what are the prospects for cities like Glasgow, and nations like Scotland, in rising to these challenges?
How to Invest in Cryptocurrency for Beginners: A Complete Guide
Cryptocurrency is digital money that operates independently of a central authority, utilizing cryptography for security. Unlike traditional currencies issued by governments (fiat currencies), cryptocurrencies are decentralized and typically operate on a technology called blockchain. Each cryptocurrency transaction is recorded on a public ledger, ensuring transparency and security.
Cryptocurrencies can be used for various purposes, including online purchases, investment opportunities, and as a means of transferring value globally without the need for intermediaries like banks.
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Cuban Restructuring: The Economic Risks
- 1. Cuban Restructuring: The Economic Risks Emily Morris CUNY Colloquium: Economic Transformation in Cuba May 21st 2012 1 1
- 2. Economic risks 1. Unemployment the cost of higher productivity? 2. Monetary instability prices, exchange rate 3. Fiscal crisis loss of capacity for social protection? 4. Stagnation is Cuba stuck? 2 2
- 3. Actualización in perspective: Growth performance 15.0 10.0 5.0 - -5.0 -10.0 -15.0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Real GDP growth, % Crisis & instability Stabilisation & recovery Boom ̶ and its limits An achievement, but not a success 3
- 4. Unemployment: the cost of higher productivity? 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Disguised unemployment as survival strategy Job creation through growth Over-full employment? Subsidised Underemployment? 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Index, 1990 = 100 Real GDP Employment Average productivity per worker Low risk: official policy commitment employment subsidy4
- 5. Monetary instability: prices 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Shortages & rations: sharing hunger Stabilization & recovery: improvement Inflation low BUT prices controlled & real wages low 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Index, 1990=100 Cost of living ? Nominal average wage Average real wage ? Low risk: price liberalisation slow due to public fears 5
- 6. Monetary instability: exchange rate 0.20 0.18 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.10 0.08 0.06 0.04 0.02 0.00 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 US$:CUP Black market rate collapse = shared hardship unorthodox stabilisation and legalisation CUP:CUP stable But gulf between ‘official’ and ‘Cadeca’ rates Low risk of exchange rate collapse – but is appreciation needed?6
- 7. Monetary imbalance: exchange rate 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Black market rate collapse = US$ privilege Stabilisation and legalisation CUP stable BUT still very weak 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 US$100 as multiple of average monthly wage at Cadeca rate Fragmented economy: official & unofficial prices, wages, exchange rates 7
- 8. Fiscal crisis: loss of capacity for social protection? 100 80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 Big Government; monetised deficit Fiscal rectitude 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 % of GDP Spending Revenue Balance Spending surge & readjustment: The institutional test 8 Low risk of fiscal crisis: commitment, institution-building
- 9. Stagnation: is the Cuban economy stuck? • Unemployment: low risk - high commitment to full employment slow productivity growth = bad for growth • Inflation: low risk - fear of rising cost of living distorted prices persist = bad for growth • Fiscal crisis: low risk - discipline and high taxes squeeze on public and private investment = bad for growth • So where is growth coming from?? Disruption is necessary; can it be managed? 9
- 10. Cuban Restructuring: The Economic Risks Managing risk: an evolutionary-institutional process emily.morris@sas.ac.uk 10 10