Emily Morris
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The document summarizes forecasts for Cuba's economy over different timeframes. Over two years, the economy is expected to remain state-dominated and stagnant, assuming regime survival and no major upheavals from Venezuela or the US. Short-term forecasts predict average annual growth in output and expenditure. Within five years, the economy is projected to become more mixed but still distorted and contradictory, with new activity and investment rising but external vulnerabilities remaining, assuming continued reforms and Venezuela's weakening. Medium-term forecasts anticipate average annual growth. Looking 20 years out, reforms are projected to result in a mixed economy with a unified peso, more social protection, and diversification reducing external reliance, assuming Venezuela's
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Politics of Cuba
Cuba has been governed by a communist system since 1959, with the Communist Party of Cuba as the leading political force. Raúl Castro currently serves as President and oversees the executive government. The unicameral National Assembly exercises legislative power. Miguel Díaz-Canel is the First Vice President and seen as Raúl Castro's potential successor. Esteban Lazo Hernández currently serves as President of the National Assembly. Committees for the Defense of the Revolution and the Communist Party also play important roles in Cuba's single-party political system.
Cuba
Cuba tiene una población de 11.2 millones de habitantes con una economía en desarrollo. A pesar de su PIB per cápita relativamente bajo, Cuba tiene uno de los mejores sistemas de salud en el mundo, con acceso universal gratuito y una gran inversión estatal en el sector salud, incluyendo una alta proporción de médicos por habitante. El sistema de salud cubano está descentralizado en Sistemas Locales de Salud para proporcionar atención a toda la población.
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Politics of Cuba
Cuba has been governed by a communist system since 1959, with the Communist Party of Cuba as the leading political force. Raúl Castro currently serves as President and oversees the executive government. The unicameral National Assembly exercises legislative power. Miguel Díaz-Canel is the First Vice President and seen as Raúl Castro's potential successor. Esteban Lazo Hernández currently serves as President of the National Assembly. Committees for the Defense of the Revolution and the Communist Party also play important roles in Cuba's single-party political system.
Cuba
Cuba tiene una población de 11.2 millones de habitantes con una economía en desarrollo. A pesar de su PIB per cápita relativamente bajo, Cuba tiene uno de los mejores sistemas de salud en el mundo, con acceso universal gratuito y una gran inversión estatal en el sector salud, incluyendo una alta proporción de médicos por habitante. El sistema de salud cubano está descentralizado en Sistemas Locales de Salud para proporcionar atención a toda la población.
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El documento discute el sistema de salud en Cuba, notando algunos avances pero también problemas significativos. Mientras la propaganda del gobierno cubano presenta estadísticas positivas, la realidad para los cubanos comunes incluye hospitales con instalaciones deficientes, escasez de recursos para alimentación que llevó a muertes, y un sistema de dos niveles donde los políticos y extranjeros reciben mejor atención que el pueblo.
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This document provides a chronology of key political events in Cuba from 1893 to 1958, including:
- The U.S. occupation of Cuba from 1898-1902 after the Spanish-American War.
- A list of Cuban presidents from 1902-1952, with Fulgencio Batista seizing power in a coup in 1952.
- Events leading to the overthrow of President Gerardo Machado in 1933 and subsequent revolutions.
- Fidel Castro and other revolutionaries landing in Cuba and their assassination attempt on the presidential palace in 1956.
- Batista going into exile in 1958, allowing Castro to enter Havana.
Normalization: Context and Prospects
- President Obama and Raul Castro announced an agreement to normalize relations between the US and Cuba after secret talks over 18 months. This agreement represents the most significant change in US-Cuba policy in 50 years and aims to eventually lift the longstanding embargo.
- While previous US presidents had attempted normalization in the 1970s and 1990s, this recent agreement was possible due to reforms in Cuba, a changing geopolitical context, and Obama's preference for engagement. However, full normalization will be difficult and require addressing ongoing differences over issues like human rights and economic models.
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Introducción a los lineamientos.
El documento describe los antecedentes de los Lineamientos de la Política Económica y Social de Cuba. Explica que los Lineamientos surgieron de un proceso masivo de participación ciudadana y debates tras un discurso del presidente Raúl Castro en 2007, en el que se recogieron más de 1,3 millones de aportes. Estos aportes dieron lugar a los 313 Lineamientos iniciales para guiar las transformaciones económicas en Cuba. Los Lineamientos fueron luego aprobados en el VI Congreso del Partido Comunista de Cuba en 2011.
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Cooperatives produce 77% of Cuba's food while occupying only 24.4% of arable land. Non-state agricultural producers, which include cooperatives and private farms, account for 57% of total food output. They produce 63% of milk and own over half of cattle and hogs.
The document agrees that cooperatives can play an important role in Cuba's agriculture by improving resource use, productivity, and reducing food imports. However, it notes that Cuba's 2011 economic guidelines still limit full realization of private property. The document raises questions about
From Planning to Market: Paths in Central and Eastern Europe?
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Planning and Market in the Cuban Economy
This document discusses the relationship between economic planning and markets in Cuba. It outlines three common perspectives on this relationship: those that prioritize planning over markets, those that prioritize markets over planning, and those that see an objective relationship between the two. The document then examines Cuba's experience with central planning and the need for economic reforms. While reforms have introduced some market elements, the document argues planning still dominates and market functions are limited. It analyzes the segmentation of Cuba's internal food market and challenges in supplying Havana. Overall, the document concludes Cuba's guidelines recognize the role of markets but still lack a full understanding and resolution of how to incorporate markets effectively.
Actualización in Perspective
The document summarizes the evolution of Cuba's socialist system and economy from 1960 to the present in distinct periods:
- 1960-1970 saw the rise of Cuban socialism following the revolution and consolidation of power under Fidel Castro with nationalization of industries and adoption of socialist policies.
- 1970-1985 was a period of institutionalization where Cuba formalized close economic and political ties with the Soviet Union and adopted a Soviet-style centralized planned economy.
- In the 1990s, Cuba faced a "Special Period" of economic crisis following the collapse of the Soviet Union, forcing reforms like legalization of the dollar and growth in tourism.
- Since 2008 under Raúl Castro, Cuba has pursued a policy
Em cuny may 21st 2012 to print
The document discusses the economic risks of restructuring in Cuba, including unemployment from higher productivity, monetary instability and inflation, fiscal crisis from loss of social protection capacity, and potential economic stagnation. It analyzes trends in these areas from 1990-2011 through various data charts and graphs. While the risks of unemployment, inflation, and fiscal crisis are considered low due to policy commitments, the fragmented economy and potential need for disruption to spur growth could lead to stagnation unless changes are managed through an evolutionary institutional process.
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1) The document outlines Cuba's agricultural reforms since 2008 that aimed to increase food self-sufficiency and exports through decentralized management and greater autonomy for non-state farmers.
2) Preliminary findings show that between 2008-2010, agricultural output declined in most crop categories in both state and non-state sectors, and yields experienced downward trends across sectors.
3) Regression analysis found area under cultivation was a significant predictor of output for rice only, suggesting it is a poor predictor for most crops.
Cuban Restructuring: The Economic Risks
The document discusses the economic risks of restructuring in Cuba, including unemployment from higher productivity, monetary instability and inflation, fiscal crisis from loss of social protection capacity, and potential economic stagnation. It analyzes trends in these areas from 1990-2011 and finds that while the risk of fiscal crisis and unemployment may be low due to commitments to employment and fiscal discipline, distorted prices and constraints on investment could lead to stagnation without disruption to the economic system. The key challenge is managing disruption through an evolutionary institutional process.
Non-State Enterprises in Cuba: Current Situation and Purposes
This document discusses non-state enterprises in Cuba, including their current situation and prospects. It defines non-state enterprises as those not managed by the state and examines precedents like over 147,000 self-employed workers and 362,000 private farmers. Recent changes expanded licenses for self-employment and allowed cooperatives in new industries. Prospects include more opportunities for non-agricultural cooperatives and allowing coops to provide services currently handled by state enterprises.
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This document summarizes a seminar on Cuba's economic prospects. It outlines Cuba's current difficult economic situation, including low wages, deindustrialization, and reliance on imports. It describes reforms under Raul Castro to liberalize self-employment and reduce the state sector. While the reforms are a step in the right direction, implementation has been slow and uncertainties remain. Cuba's economic future will depend on factors like foreign investment, Venezuela's support, and engagement with countries like China and Brazil.
Update on Cuba's Non-Sugar Agricultural Sector
The document provides an update on Cuba's non-sugar agricultural sector between 2005-2010. It finds:
1) Declining agricultural output and yields, due in part to economic inefficiencies and lack of incentives.
2) Cuba implemented policy reforms from 2007-2011 to address issues, including price increases and transfers of idle lands.
3) Recent performance is mixed, with some crops showing recovery but yields continuing to decline.
4) Non-state sector sales in agricultural markets have been increasing but remain below one-quarter of total sales.
Teatro cCubano en el Transmilenio Imagenes
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The Struggle for Democracy in Cuba: The Republic
This document provides a chronology of key political events in Cuba from 1893 to 1958, including:
- The U.S. occupation of Cuba from 1898-1902 after the Spanish-American War.
- A list of Cuban presidents from 1902-1952, with Fulgencio Batista seizing power in a coup in 1952.
- Events leading to the overthrow of President Gerardo Machado in 1933 and subsequent revolutions.
- Fidel Castro and other revolutionaries landing in Cuba and their assassination attempt on the presidential palace in 1956.
- Batista going into exile in 1958, allowing Castro to enter Havana.
Normalization: Context and Prospects
- President Obama and Raul Castro announced an agreement to normalize relations between the US and Cuba after secret talks over 18 months. This agreement represents the most significant change in US-Cuba policy in 50 years and aims to eventually lift the longstanding embargo.
- While previous US presidents had attempted normalization in the 1970s and 1990s, this recent agreement was possible due to reforms in Cuba, a changing geopolitical context, and Obama's preference for engagement. However, full normalization will be difficult and require addressing ongoing differences over issues like human rights and economic models.
Un nuevo escenario, un nuevo modelo agrícola cubano
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El documento describe los antecedentes de los Lineamientos de la Política Económica y Social de Cuba. Explica que los Lineamientos surgieron de un proceso masivo de participación ciudadana y debates tras un discurso del presidente Raúl Castro en 2007, en el que se recogieron más de 1,3 millones de aportes. Estos aportes dieron lugar a los 313 Lineamientos iniciales para guiar las transformaciones económicas en Cuba. Los Lineamientos fueron luego aprobados en el VI Congreso del Partido Comunista de Cuba en 2011.
Comments -- "Forms of Property in the Cuban Economy - Agriculture"
This document discusses cooperatives and non-state agricultural producers in Cuba. It summarizes the findings of Dr. Armando Nova González, who found that:
Cooperatives produce 77% of Cuba's food while occupying only 24.4% of arable land. Non-state agricultural producers, which include cooperatives and private farms, account for 57% of total food output. They produce 63% of milk and own over half of cattle and hogs.
The document agrees that cooperatives can play an important role in Cuba's agriculture by improving resource use, productivity, and reducing food imports. However, it notes that Cuba's 2011 economic guidelines still limit full realization of private property. The document raises questions about
From Planning to Market: Paths in Central and Eastern Europe?
The document summarizes the transition of economies in Central and Eastern Europe from centrally planned socialist systems to market economies. It describes the features of state socialism, including one-party states, public ownership, and centrally planned economies. It then outlines reforms in places like Hungary in the 1960s-1980s that decentralized control and allowed more market mechanisms and private business. However, rapid economic liberalization in the 1990s weakened these "socialist entrepreneurs" and state capacity was limited, allowing political elites to dominate. Overall it questions the "social engineering" approach promoted by the West.
U.S. Food and Agricultural Exports to Cuba - Uncertain Times Ahead
The document summarizes a presentation about U.S. food and agricultural exports to Cuba from 2000-2011. It finds that exports increased dramatically after 2001 when trade was allowed, with the U.S. becoming Cuba's top supplier by 2002. However, U.S. exports have declined since 2008 as Cuba imports more from other countries like Brazil, which surpassed the U.S. as Cuba's largest supplier in 2011. The future of U.S. exports is uncertain as Cuba aims to reduce imports and other countries invest in Cuba's agricultural sector.
Planning and Market in the Cuban Economy
This document discusses the relationship between economic planning and markets in Cuba. It outlines three common perspectives on this relationship: those that prioritize planning over markets, those that prioritize markets over planning, and those that see an objective relationship between the two. The document then examines Cuba's experience with central planning and the need for economic reforms. While reforms have introduced some market elements, the document argues planning still dominates and market functions are limited. It analyzes the segmentation of Cuba's internal food market and challenges in supplying Havana. Overall, the document concludes Cuba's guidelines recognize the role of markets but still lack a full understanding and resolution of how to incorporate markets effectively.
Actualización in Perspective
The document summarizes the evolution of Cuba's socialist system and economy from 1960 to the present in distinct periods:
- 1960-1970 saw the rise of Cuban socialism following the revolution and consolidation of power under Fidel Castro with nationalization of industries and adoption of socialist policies.
- 1970-1985 was a period of institutionalization where Cuba formalized close economic and political ties with the Soviet Union and adopted a Soviet-style centralized planned economy.
- In the 1990s, Cuba faced a "Special Period" of economic crisis following the collapse of the Soviet Union, forcing reforms like legalization of the dollar and growth in tourism.
- Since 2008 under Raúl Castro, Cuba has pursued a policy
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The document discusses the economic risks of restructuring in Cuba, including unemployment from higher productivity, monetary instability and inflation, fiscal crisis from loss of social protection capacity, and potential economic stagnation. It analyzes trends in these areas from 1990-2011 through various data charts and graphs. While the risks of unemployment, inflation, and fiscal crisis are considered low due to policy commitments, the fragmented economy and potential need for disruption to spur growth could lead to stagnation unless changes are managed through an evolutionary institutional process.
Relanzamiento del cuentapropismo en medio del ajuste estructural
El documento analiza el relanzamiento del sector cuentapropista en Cuba en 2010 y su papel en el ajuste estructural de la economía. Resumiendo: 1) El sector cuentapropista experimentó un fuerte crecimiento tras la nueva apertura en 2010 pero persisten limitaciones como la falta de acceso a insumos e importaciones. 2) El sector juega un papel importante en el ajuste fiscal y la absorción de empleo, pero se necesitan mayores transformaciones estructurales. 3) A pesar de su contribución, las perspectivas apuntan
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The document discusses Cuba's new credit policy since 2011 that aims to provide financial resources to the private sector through microloans. It outlines the characteristics of the new credits which will be addressed through three banks. While this policy could help spur private business and economic growth, international microfinance faces challenges related to scope, costs, technology and more. Cuba will need to address institutional weaknesses in its banking system and restrictions on the private sector to fully realize the potential benefits of microfinance. Complementary policies and support from other organizations will also be required for sustainable expansion of microloans.
Measuring Cuba's Agricultural Transformations: Preliminary Findings
1) The document outlines Cuba's agricultural reforms since 2008 that aimed to increase food self-sufficiency and exports through decentralized management and greater autonomy for non-state farmers.
2) Preliminary findings show that between 2008-2010, agricultural output declined in most crop categories in both state and non-state sectors, and yields experienced downward trends across sectors.
3) Regression analysis found area under cultivation was a significant predictor of output for rice only, suggesting it is a poor predictor for most crops.
Cuban Restructuring: The Economic Risks
The document discusses the economic risks of restructuring in Cuba, including unemployment from higher productivity, monetary instability and inflation, fiscal crisis from loss of social protection capacity, and potential economic stagnation. It analyzes trends in these areas from 1990-2011 and finds that while the risk of fiscal crisis and unemployment may be low due to commitments to employment and fiscal discipline, distorted prices and constraints on investment could lead to stagnation without disruption to the economic system. The key challenge is managing disruption through an evolutionary institutional process.
Non-State Enterprises in Cuba: Current Situation and Purposes
This document discusses non-state enterprises in Cuba, including their current situation and prospects. It defines non-state enterprises as those not managed by the state and examines precedents like over 147,000 self-employed workers and 362,000 private farmers. Recent changes expanded licenses for self-employment and allowed cooperatives in new industries. Prospects include more opportunities for non-agricultural cooperatives and allowing coops to provide services currently handled by state enterprises.
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This document summarizes a seminar on Cuba's economic prospects. It outlines Cuba's current difficult economic situation, including low wages, deindustrialization, and reliance on imports. It describes reforms under Raul Castro to liberalize self-employment and reduce the state sector. While the reforms are a step in the right direction, implementation has been slow and uncertainties remain. Cuba's economic future will depend on factors like foreign investment, Venezuela's support, and engagement with countries like China and Brazil.
Update on Cuba's Non-Sugar Agricultural Sector
The document provides an update on Cuba's non-sugar agricultural sector between 2005-2010. It finds:
1) Declining agricultural output and yields, due in part to economic inefficiencies and lack of incentives.
2) Cuba implemented policy reforms from 2007-2011 to address issues, including price increases and transfers of idle lands.
3) Recent performance is mixed, with some crops showing recovery but yields continuing to decline.
4) Non-state sector sales in agricultural markets have been increasing but remain below one-quarter of total sales.
Teatro cCubano en el Transmilenio Imagenes
El documento lista varias obras de teatro cubanas y los grupos teatrales que las produjeron entre 1990 y 2010. Algunas de las obras mencionadas son "Otra tempestad", "Charenton", "Woyzeck", "Las amargas lágrimas de Petra Von Kant", "Chamaco", "Final de partida", "Talco", "Pájaros de la playa" y "Visiones de la Cubanosofía". Los grupos teatrales citados incluyen Teatro Buendía, Teatro de la Luna, Teatro El Público y Argos Teatro.
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Emily Morris
- 1. Forecasting the Cuban economy: two years, five years and 20 years The Political Economy of Change in Cuba “ Forecasting the Cuban Economy: Two Years, Five Years, and Twenty Years” Emily Morris London Metropolitan University
- 2. Forecasting the Cuban economy: two years, five years and 20 years Emily Morris
- 5. Short term forecast output and expenditure (av. annual % change) Forecasting the Cuban economy: two years, five years and 20 years
- 7. Medium term forecast output and expenditure (av. annual % change) Forecasting the Cuban economy: two years, five years and 20 years
- 9. Long term forecast Real GDP per head, index (2010=100) Forecasting the Cuban economy: two years, five years and 20 years
- 11. The Cuban economy: two years, five years and 20 years Open to debate… Emily Morris [email_address]