Slides from presentation by Rob Johnson at the SSP Pre-Conference Seminar on 7 April 2018: We’re Not Who We Used to Be’: Shifting Relationship Dynamics and Imbalances in an Open Access World.

1. Embracing complexity: The
new normal in scholarly
communication
Rob Johnson, Research Consulting
7 April 2019
SSP Pre-conference 1
@rschrobUK

2. Embracing
complexity
1. A changing publishing landscape
2. Messy... or complex?
3. Living with complexity
2

3. 1.
A changing publishing
landscape
3

4. STM Market Characteristics
• CAGR 2.1% (2013 US$9.1 billion)
Annual STM English-language journal revenues about US$10 billion
(2017)
• STM Books worth ~US$3.3 billion annually; e books ~1/3rd (2016) and
growing at a faster rate than the market as a whole
Broader STM market about US$25.7 billion (2017)
• 41% US; 27% Europe/Middle East; 26% Asia/Pacific; 6% Rest of World
STM revenues by geography
• Journal volumes growing at 5% per annum, and articles at 4% p.a.
33,100 journals publishing c. 3 million articles per year
STM Report 2018. https://www.stm-assoc.org/2018_10_04_STM_Report_2018.pdf

5. A shifting global picture
National Science Board (2018). Science and Engineering Indicators 2018. NSB-2018-1. Alexandria, VA:
National Science Foundation
Rank Country
% of global
outputs (2016)
Ranking change
since 2006
1 China 18.6 ↑1
2 US 17.8 ↓1
3 India 4.8 ↑7
4 Germany 4.5 −
5 UK 4.3 ↓1
6 Japan 4.2 ↓3

6. • Degree of penetration of various OA models is complex
• DOAJ lists 11,811 OA journals (9,172 in English)
• Overall OA article penetration is approximately 1/3rd
• 15-20% (Gold or articles in OA journals)
• 10-15% (Delayed access on publisher websites or self-archived copies)
• OA only c.5% of total market revenues
Open Access

7. Proportions of open access content
– 1975-2018
Courtesy of Eric Archambault (Science-Metrix)
(Figure courtesy of Eric Archambault)

8. Changes in publishing models
8
Universities UK (2017). Monitoring the Transition to Open Access. Universities UK, December.

9. 9
https://authorservices.wiley.com/Reviewers/journal-reviewers/what-is-peer-review/types-of-peer-
review.html © Wiley

11. 2.
Messy... or complex?
11

12. Credit where credit’s
due...
Embracing Complexity: Strategic
Perspectives for an Age of
Turbulence
Cliff Bowman, Jean G. Boulton, and Peter M.
Allen
12

13. What do we mean by
complexity?
13
Systemic
Path-
dependent
Sensitive
to context
Emergent
Episodic

14. Are we ‘locked-in’...?
14
Firm becomes
successful
Temporarily cuts
prices to remove
competition
Increases
popularity by
advertising
Influences
economic trends
and societal norms
Becomes too
large to govern
Increasing
power and
consolidation
of the market

15. Percentage of papers published by
the top 6 publishers 1973-2013
15
Lariviére et al. 2015

16. ... Or at a tipping
point?
• A ‘phase shift’ relating to
characteristics, patterns of
relationships, and
dimensions.
• Normally there are multiple
different ways to progress
after this point.
16
Image: Pixabay CC0

17. Preprint posting is increasing
17
Source: http://www.prepubmed.org/monthly_stats/ - December 2018 data
Year
Number of
preprints
posted

18. Big Deal Cancellations
18
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Year
Number of
cancellations
Source: https://sparcopen.org/our-work/big-deal-cancellation-tracking/- SPARC

19. Plan S
19
Image: cOAlition S CC0

20. 3.
Responding to complexity
20

21. Image: Fabio Berti / Shutterstock

22. 22
Source: DILBERT © Scott Adams. Used By permission of ANDREWS MCMEEL SYNDICATION. All rights
reserved.

23. 23
Images: Pixabay CC0

24. Predicting the future...
"Everyone's always asking me when Apple will come out with a cell
phone. My answer is, 'Probably never.'" — David Pogue, Tech writer at
The New York Times, 2006.
Image: Pixabay CC0

25. The law of excess
diversity
25
‘The long-term survival of a system requires more
internal diversity than appears requisite at any time’
Image: Pixabay CC0
Quote – Allen, P. (2001), ‘ A complex systems approach to learning in adaptive systems’.
International Journal of Innovation Management, Vol. 2 No. 2, pp. 149-80

26. Looking East...
26
...and South
Image: Pixabay CC0

27. Being data-driven...
27
Photo by Lukas from Pexels
...but humble

28. Embracing complexity…
…but ‘hiding the wiring’
28
Image: Pixabay CC0

29. rob.johnson@research-consulting.com
@rschrobUK
www.research-consulting.com
29
STM Report 2018 (w/ Anthony Watkinson & Michael Mabe)
https://www.stm-assoc.org/2018_10_04_STM_Report_2018.pdf
Shifting Relationship Dynamics and Imbalances in an OA
world (The Scholarly Kitchen)
https://scholarlykitchen.sspnet.org/2019/04/03/guest-post-rob-
johnson-on-shifting-relationship-dynamics-and-imbalances-in-
an-open-access-world/
From coalition to commons: Plan S and the future of
scholarly communication (UKSG Insights)
https://insights.uksg.org/articles/10.1629/uksg.453/
More information…