Rob Johnson of Research Consulting casts his expert eye over the implications of Plan S for those in academia and independent publishing, and explores what they might do to respond

1. Where next for Plan S?
Rob Johnson, Research Consulting
2 May 2019
The IPG Spring Conference 1
@rschrobUK

2. Where next for Plan S?
1. Publishing as a complex system
2. Plan S - a Simple solution?
3. Hope for the best, plan for the worst
2

3. 1.
Publishing as a complex
system
3

4. What do we mean by
complexity?
Source: Bowman et al 2015 Embracing Complexity: Strategic Perspectives for an Age of Turbulence
4
Systemic
Path-
dependent
Sensitive
to context
Emergent
Episodic

5. Are we ‘locked-in’...?
5
Firm becomes
successful
Temporarily cuts
prices to remove
competition
Increases
popularity by
advertising
Influences
economic trends
and societal norms
Becomes too
large to govern
Increasing
power and
consolidation
of the market

6. Percentage of papers published by
the top 6 publishers 1973-2013
6
Lariviére et al. 2015

7. ... Or at a tipping point?
7
Image: Pixabay CC0

8. Proportions of open access content
– 1975-2018
Courtesy of Eric Archambault (Science-Metrix)
(Figure courtesy of Eric Archambault)

9. Preprint posting is increasing
9
Source: http://www.prepubmed.org/monthly_stats/ - December 2018 data
Year
Number of
preprints
posted

10. Big Deal Cancellations
10
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Year
Number of
cancellations
Source: https://sparcopen.org/our-work/big-deal-cancellation-tracking/- SPARC

11. 2.
Plan S for Simple?
11

12. Plan S
12
Image: cOAlition S CC0

13. 13

14. 14
Images: Pixabay CC0

15. Image: Fabio Berti / Shutterstock

16. 16

17. 17

18. Feedback on Plan S
Clear support for the transition to open access.
Source: Lisa Hinchcliffe “Taking Stock of the Feedback on Plan S Implementation Guidance“ -
https://scholarlykitchen.sspnet.org/2019/02/11/with-thousand-of-pages-of-feedback-on-the-plans-s-implementation-guidance-
what-themes-emerged-that-might-guide-next-steps/
18
Guidance might work for STEM but will negatively impact HSS
scholars.
Technical requirements are poorly thought out.
Concern for viability of small, independent, and society
publishers.
It is likely impossible to set a fair and reasonable APC.
Scholars and organizations in the Global South object to being
told what they want.
Timelines are not feasible.

19. Implementation
timeline
19
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
1 Jan 2020 - Policies come into effect –
for new calls, grants OR ongoing grants

20. 3.
Hope for the best, plan for the
worst
20

21. Equity
- participatory governance and conflict-resolution mechanisms
Efficiency
- joined-up thinking that recognizes the inter-connected nature of
research and publishing
Sustainability
- monitoring and feedback mechanisms
21
What can we hope for?

22. The law of excess
diversity
22
‘The long-term survival of a system requires more
internal diversity than appears requisite at any time’
Image: Pixabay CC0
Quote – Allen, P. (2001), ‘ A complex systems approach to learning in adaptive systems’.
International Journal of Innovation Management, Vol. 2 No. 2, pp. 149-80

23. What should we plan
for?
• No movement on the principle of ‘full and immediate access’
• Emphasis on cost transparency rather than price caps?
• Increasingly polycentric approach?
• Exceptions as a means of ‘squaring the circle’?
23

24. Expansion +
dilution?
24

25. Variable publisher
impact
• More than 3,500 publishers have no Plan S-funded papers in Web of
Science at all
• Of >10,000 journals in WoS, only 3,700 had 6 or more Plan S-funded
papers
• No publisher has more than 30% of their papers Plan S-funded
Source: ISI (2019) The Plan S footprint https://clarivate.com/g/plan-s-footprint/
25

26. Gold or Green OA?
Source: https://client.cntv.at/egu2019/gdb5 26
Plan S is NOT all about
gold open access!!David Sweeney – Executive Chair of
Research England and Co-Chair of
Plan S Implementation Task Force

27. Compliance routes
Source: Bosman & Kramer (2018) tinyurl.com/nine-routes
27

28. What about China?
Source:OA2020 Mainland China Signatory Libraries Discussed a Response
To Plan S Guidance on Implementation http://english.las.cas.cn/ns/ne/201904/t20190402_207494.html
28
Chinese authorities and libraries have indicated their support for the
majority of Plan S principles – but full implications are unclear…
“We believe the transition process can be realized within the framework of
currently available resources. We see no legitimate reasons for, and will
object to, any attempts to increase spending from the original subscribing
institutions in the transformation.”
(Mainland China Signature Libraries, April 2019)

29. What about
monographs?
“cOAlition S will, at a later stage, issue guidance on Open Access
monographs and book chapters.” (cOAlition S Guidance, Nov 2018)
29

30. “If we think that the world is not entirely predictable, we would still
plan - but review the outcomes of the plan more frequently”
Quote: Bowman et al 2015 Embracing Complexity: Strategic Perspectives for an Age of Turbulence
Hope for the best, plan
for the worst

31. rob.johnson@research-consulting.com
@rschrobUK
www.research-consulting.com
31
Shifting Relationship Dynamics and Imbalances in an OA
world (The Scholarly Kitchen)
https://scholarlykitchen.sspnet.org/2019/04/03/guest-post-rob-
johnson-on-shifting-relationship-dynamics-and-imbalances-in-
an-open-access-world/
From coalition to commons: Plan S and the future of
scholarly communication (UKSG Insights)
https://insights.uksg.org/articles/10.1629/uksg.453/
More information…