The document discusses the current state of cloud computing and its implications. It notes that cloud computing is transforming IT provisioning from centralized local models to flexible, wide-area models delivered as utilities. This reflects the industrialization and commoditization of computing resources. Major players like Google, Microsoft and Amazon now dominate cloud production and distribution, mirroring trends in other utility industries. The document argues that cloud services could enable more flexible innovation if universities embrace this new model and rethink security and services.

1. Cloud Services – current state of affairs Dr. Leo Plugge Wetenschappelijk Technische Raad SURF – ICT innovation by and for higher education and research April 15, 2010

2. A definition of ‘Cloud computing’ Cloud computing is Internet-based computing, whereby shared resources, software and information are provided to computers and other devices on-demand, like a public utility. Source: Wikipedia Cloud computing is about delivering services through a Wide Area Network (internet) in a flexible manner (scalable in size and number). Flexibility is usually attained by sharing generic resources (software, platform, hardware). SURF – ICT innovation by and for higher education and research April 15, 2010 2

3. Cloud Services is the industrialization of ITCf the generation of electricity From local provisioning To regional provisioning SURF – ICT innovation by and for higher education and research April 15, 2010 3

4. From regional monopoly to free market SURF – ICT innovation by and for higher education and research Production Distribution Provisioning Client Regional Monopoly (PZEM, PLEM, PEM, etc) GDF Suez, E-ON EDF, Enel, RWE (75% EU market) Lots of small players: Greenchoice, NEM, Dong Energy,… Tennet & Local ? April 15, 2010 4

5. Back to ITJohn McCarthy in 1961: “If computers of the kind I have advocated* become the computers of the future, then computing may someday be organized as a public utility just as the telephone system is a public utility... The computer utility could become the basis of a new and important industry.” John McCarthy, MIT Centennial in 1961 (* time sharing) SURF – ICT innovation by and for higher education and research April 15, 2010 5

6. Industrialized IT From centralized local (campus) provisioning To wide area provisioning SURF – ICT innovation by and for higher education and research April 15, 2010 6

7. Turning to market forces Production Distribution Provisioning Client University IT centers Google Microsoft Yahoo Amazon SalesForce Sun … Internet SURFnet Local Private ? SURF – ICT innovation by and for higher education and research April 15, 2010 7

8. The world needs only five computers. Thomas Watson , CEO IBM (1943) “there will be small number of big players and a large numbers of small players in the cloud computing space ” Dr. Eric Schmidt , CEO Google SURF – ICT innovation by and for higher education and research April 15, 2010 8

9. And the big players are… Source: Niraj Juneja, Webscale Solutions “A Walk in the Clouds” April 15, 2010 9 SURF – ICT innovation by and for higher education and research

10. Working from different angles… On-line Off-line Both focus on a content delivery architecture SURF – ICT innovation by and for higher education and research April 15, 2010 10

11. Competition from the cloud gives us choice,but… SURF – ICT innovation by and for higher education and research April 15, 2010 11

12. Mixed feelings about Software as a Service (SaaS) Users like SaaS and are dissatisfied with rate of adoption of new IT in enterprise: 30% users 2008 dissatisfied Gartner expects: increase to 50% in 2013 Suppliers are skeptic about SaaS (enterprise) Customers not impressed by SaaS performance 42% cost is barrier 38% integration barrier 32% technical requirements However: 58% maintain current SaaS level 32% will increase level 5% will decrease 5% will discontinue Gartner: by 2012, 20% of businesses will own virtually no IT assets. Source: Gartner SURF – ICT innovation by and for higher education and research April 15, 2010 12

13. Some effects of cloud services market Competition gives consumers a choice of services; Employees are consumers and bring in new services; User groups will build their own/new solutions; Cloud services provide means for flexible innovation; Innovation through customer’s (‘beta’)* testing. * Beta ≠ banana software SURF – ICT innovation by and for higher education and research April 15, 2010 13

14. Another effect is the IT-department trying to stay in control of services with… Public Cloud Internal Cloud Hybrid Cloud External Cloud Private Cloud Some X-cloud I didn’t think of SURF – ICT innovation by and for higher education and research April 15, 2010 14

15. But Cloud Services is mainlyabout letting some services and customers go! Cloud Services mission critical Outsource Make context core Partner Contract I will Help myself! supporting SURF – ICT innovation by and for higher education and research April 15, 2010 15

16. To use the effects of cloud services we need (among others) stop “hugging” (local/national) hardware; rethink ‘inside-outside’ (perimeter based) security; re-examine the institutional services production portfolio; more configurable generic services; differentiate by user group / application area; room for users (groups) to bring in new services (sandbox); SURF – ICT innovation by and for higher education and research April 15, 2010 16

17. The cloud argument also holds for research SURF – ICT innovation by and for higher education and research April 15, 2010 17

18. Ed Lazowska* “85% of research computing could easily use clouds” “Only some very specialized research and computational scientists need dedicated high performance computers” *Bill & Melinda Gates Chair in Computer Science & Engineering, Director, eScience Institute, University of Washington Chair, Computing Community Consortium SURF – ICT innovation by and for higher education and research April 15, 2010 18 Only a small number of researchers need capability computing, i.e., High Performance Computing systems with large numbers of cores. The majority of researchers are well served with capacity computing, systems that share their computing power with several up to many users. (what cloud computing excels at)

19. Lazowska’s statement visualized by Cees de Laat’s Bandwidth requirements, 2008 Source: C. de Laat SURF – ICT innovation by and for higher education and research April 15, 2010 19

20. Lazowska’s arguments for cloud computing Funding councils face an insatiable demand in research grant applications for more computers and clusters. Computing and ICT represent anywhere from 30-50% of the energy consumption at a typical research university. If institutions charged fees based on energy bill, this would be a powerful incentive to move in the direction of clouds. Ergo: “Cloud services could be included in the indirect costs of research much like energy is today.” SURF – ICT innovation by and for higher education and research April 15, 2010 20

21. Europe, we have a problem SURF – ICT innovation by and for higher education and research April 15, 2010 21

22. ESAutilizes Amazon EC2 for the data-processing needs of its Gaia mission(launch in 2012) Gaia generates 40GB per night. Using local resources (read “a grid” or “a cluster”) would cost $1.5 million. Using EC2 will cost in the range of $500,000. SURF – ICT innovation by and for higher education and research April 15, 2010 22

23. Cloud Outlook 2010 webcastby 451 Group's William Fellows, Feb. 2010 Spending on cloud computing 57% in the U.S. 31% in Europe 12% in Asia. Adoption of infrastructure as a service (e.g. Amazon's EC2) 93% of that spending is done in the U.S. 6% in Europe 1% in Asia. Flexiant is currently the only cloud computing service based in Europe. SURF – ICT innovation by and for higher education and research April 15, 2010 23

24. To compete we need cloud services From EGEE? (Enabling Grids for E-sciencE) SURF – ICT innovation by and for higher education and research April 15, 2010 24 Bob Hertzberger

25. Providing the opportunity to share and reuse Bob Hertzberger SURF – ICT innovation by and for higher education and research April 15, 2010 25

26. Remember: the internet is scale-freeand the rich get richer Albert-László Barabási: A small number of nodes in the internet have far more connections than most other nodes. As the network grows, the rich nodes get richer. (AMS-IX and NetherLight are examples) “Out of the 40,000 routed end sites in the Internet, 30 large companies — ‘hyper giants’ like Limelight, Facebook, Google, Microsoft and YouTube — now generate and consume a disproportionate 30 percent of all Internet traffic.” Arbor’s Internet Observatory Report SURF – ICT innovation by and for higher education and research April 15, 2010 26

27. Leo Plugge plugge@surf.nl www.surf.nl Thank you SURF – ICT innovation by and for higher education and research April 15, 2010 27