Eimear gave an FMCG Outlook for 2016 on February 27th for our members. Slides of her presentation are here. Full video available to our members in our Knowledge Centre.

1. Eimear Hennessy
Business Unit Director,
Nielsen Ireland
THE THREATS AND OPPORTUNITIES AT
PLAY FOR OUR FAVOURITE BRANDS

2. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
& € SPEND

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CONSUMER CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO RISE
Q4 2012
65
Q4 2013
77
Q4 2014
90
IRE Consumer Confidence Index
Q4 2012
18%
Q4 2013
26%
Q4 2014
46%
Job Prospects - Excellent/Good
Q4 2012
27%
Q4 2013
40%
Q4 2014
45%
Personal Finances - Excellent/Good
Q4 2012
26%
Q4 2013
29%
Q4 2014
37%
Readiness to Spend- Excellent/Good
Source: Nielsen Global Online Survey Ireland Q4 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015
Q4 2015
99
Q4 2015
56%
Q4 2014
53%
Q4 2015
53%
Burden of financial constraints now improving for the majority.

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CHANGING CONCERNS FOR IRISH CONSUMERS
Increasing Utility Bills remains unchanged illustrating the burden that consumers feel in
this area but the biggest change is around Health and Work/Life Balance (pre recession
concerns)
Source: Nielsen Global Online Survey, Ireland
8%
13%
14%
11%
8%
8%
13%
15%
5%
14%
20%
5%
Increasing Utility Bills
Job Security
Health
Debt
Economy
Work Life Balance
Q4 2015 Q4 2012
Q7a. What is your biggest concern over the next six months?
2015
Consumer
Confidence
Index
99
2012
Consumer
Confidence
65

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2015 MAT vs LY
TOTAL FMCG MARKET WORTH €15.5BN
VOLUME-LED GROWTH
Source: Nielsen Strategic Planner , Total Market Read| MAT to Dec 2015
+0.5%
+0.4%
+0.9%
+3.2%
0%
+3.2%
Volume
Price
Value
Nov/Dec 2015 vs LY

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STEADY VOLUME GROWTH OVER 2015
Optimistic signs ahead for 2016 in terms of Volume but still significant price
resistance.
-1.5
-0.1
0.0
0.9
2.2
3.2
-2.7
-1.0
-0.5
0.4
2.1
3.2
Jan/Feb 2015 Mar/Apr 2015 May/Jun 2015 July/Aug 2015 Sep/Oct 2015 Nov/Dec 2015
VALUE UNITS
Source: Nielsen Strategic Planner , Total Market Read| Bi-Monthly YoY Performance up to Dec 2015
Total FMCG Value and Unit Growth

7. CHANNEL
PERFORMANCE

8. Copyright©2012TheNielsenCompany.Confidentialandproprietary.
8Strategic Planner | MAT to Dec 2015 | Scantrack/Market Track incl Discounters & Dunnes| VALUE
MAT to Dec 2015
+0.9%
DISCOUNTERS AND CONVENIENCE WINNING AT THE
EXPENSE OF THE MULTIPLES
46.1%
36.2%
17.7%
MULTIPLES + DUNNES
CONVENIENCE
DISCOUNTERS
-1.5%
+7.4%
+1.1%
Nov-Dec 2015
+3.2%
48.7%
34.1%
17.2%
MULTIPLES + DUNNES
CONVENIENCE
DISCOUNTERS
+1.6%
+10%
+2.2%

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DISCOUNTERS STILL CONTINUING TO INVEST IN NEW
STORE OPENINGS.
Turnover now approaching €2.7 billion
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
263 Stores
6% Growth
Nielsen Data Science - Discounter Store Numbers 1999 - 2015

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6.5 6.1 5.7
4.1 4.4
1.3
6.0 6.2
4.2
3.5 2.0
1.7
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
LIDL ALDI TESCO SUPERVALU DUNNES MARKS &
SPENCER
Press TV
LIDL & ALDI MAKING UP 48% OF
ADVERTISING SPEND AND GROWING.
Supermarket Adspend FY 2015
+13% +6%
+5%
-13%
+8%
+35%
Lidl
24%
Aldi
24%Tesco
19%
SV
15%
Dunnes
12%
M&S
6%
SHARE
OF
SPEND
Source: Nielsen AdDynamix – Full Year 2015/ Includes TV (ROI Channels) and National Newspapers
FMCG based on Defined set including Food, Drink, Health & Beauty, Household, Tobaccco & Accessories / Retailers includes large
Supermarkets & Discounters
€m
-5%

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11Source: Nielsen Strategic Planner Total Market Read Data to December 2015
55 50 47 46 44
43
36 36 36 35
2
14 17 18 21
2006 2013 2014 2015 2020
FMCG Trended Channel Share
MULTIPLES & DUNNES CONVENIENCE DISCOUNTERS
DISCOUNTERS REMAIN ON TRACK TO REACH 21% SHARE
IN NEXT 5 YEARS

12. CATEGORY &
BRAND GROWTH

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VALUE GROWTH IN ALL CATEGORIES
Price deflation drives volume growth ahead of value growth.
VALUE UNITS PRICE
BIMONTH VALUE €M BIMONTH % CHG BIMONTH % CHG BIMONTH % CHG
GROCERY €464 +2.7 +4.5 -1.7
CONFECTIONERY €423 +4.3 +2.4 +1.9
ALCOHOL €407 +2.5 +3.5 -0.9
TOBACCO & SUNDRIES €263 +4.2 -1.3 +5.6
HOUSEHOLD €104 +1.9 +3.7 -1.7
BAKERY €93 +2.0 +2.1 -0.1
HEALTH & BEAUTY €79 +4.0 +6.1 -2.0
FROZEN FOOD €56 +1.6 +3.2 -1.6
Total value +3.2% Total units +3.2%
Strategic Planner | MAT to Dec 2015 | Scantrack/Market Track incl Discounters & Dunnes| VALUE

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WHICH CATEGORIES DELIVERED THE MOST
ADDITIONAL SALES?
Source: Nielsen Strategic Planner Total Market Data MAT DEC 2015
22.8
12.2
11.2
9.5
7.9
7.1
6.9
5.5
4.6
4.2
3.9
3.6
3.4
3.3
3.0
2.8
2.7
2.6
2.4
2.2
CONFECTIONERY
MINERAL WATERS
TABLE WINES
CRISPS/SNACKS/TUBES
NUTS
INSTANT/GROUND COFFEE
SPECIAL DIETARY PRODUCTS
SPARKLING WINES
PETFOOD
WHISKEY
DETERGENTS
GRANOLA BARS
TOILET TISSUES
RTD FLAV MILK & SHAKES
CHEESE
PACKED SALADS
CAKES
YOGHURT, FROMAGE FRAIS AND YOGHURT
BUTTER/SPREADABLE BUTTER
NUT BUTTERS
Incremental Value €'m

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TOP 20 BRAND WINNERS IN 2015
These brand winners are using two to four of the levers for success.
MF MALTESERS
MONSTER
CADBURY BOOST
COCA COLA LIFE
PRINGLES
EXTRA
BUDWEISER
VIT HIT
INNOCENT
BALLYGOWAN
ALPRO
CADBURY DAIRY MILK
MOOJU
GUINNESS
KINDER
CARROLL MEATS
CARLSBERG
NICKY
ORCHARD THIEVES
€1.8m
€1.8m
€2.2m
€2.3m
€2.3m
€2.3m
€2.3m
€2.7m
€2.7m
€2.8m
€2.8m
€3.1m
€3.2m
€3.2m
€3.3m
€4.6m
€4.8m
€4.8m
€5.2m
Source: Nielsen Scantrack including Discounters – Data up to the 27th Dec 2015

16. BRAND LEVERS
FOR GROWTH

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WHICH BUTTON DO YOU ACTIVATE?
As brand owners are we challenging our investments wisely enough?
AVAILABILITY
It is no longer
good enough
to get listings.
Brand owners
need to assess
the quality of
that
distribution.
PROMOTIONS
Ever increasing
promotions on
offer but as
brands owners
have we
measured
their
profitability?
ADVERTISING
FMCG Brand
owners have
increased their
advertising
spend but have
they evaluated
the reaction it
has generated?
INNOVATION
Long term
sustainable
growth
requires brand
innovation but
only 10% are
deemed as
truly
successful.

18. Retail reality
1
8
18

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THE QUALITY OF YOUR DISTRIBUTION COUNTS
To get products in front of consumers can be a big ask but also with big € returns.

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TOTAL MARKET
+9% +4%
RETAILER SPEND
+11%
FMCG
SPEND
Source: Nielsen AdDynamix – Full Year 2015/ Includes TV (ROI Channels) and National Newspapers
FMCG based on Defined set including Food, Drink, Cosmetics & Toiletries, Household, Petcare & Tobaccco & Accessories
Retailers includes large Supermarkets & Discounters
MANUFACTURERS SPENDING HEAVILY WITH RETAILERS
REMAINING STEADY

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REACTION
How did it change their
behavior?
RESONANCE
Did it positively change
their opinions?
REACH
Who saw the
campaign/content?
MEASURE CAMPAIGN EFFECTIVENESS BY
FOLLOWING THE CONSUMER
PAID – OWNED - EARNED

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A THIRD OF MULTIPLES VALUE IS SOLD ON DEAL
VARYING BY SECTOR
Source: Nielsen Multiples Data Week Ending 27th Dec 2015
33.2 33.5
37.2 36.8 38.6 38.3 38.6 38.8
MAT YA MAT TY 12 WEEKS
YA
LATEST 12
WEEKS
8 WEEKS
YA
LATEST 8
WEEKS
4 WEEKS
YA
LATEST 4
WEEKS
Total FMCG - Value % On Deal
38.8
36.1
29.0
32.0 33.0
36.0
23.6
ALCOHOL CONFECTIONERY GROCERY HEALTH &
BEAUTY
HOUSEHOLD FROZEN FOOD BAKERY
Product Class Value % On Deal
MAT TY

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DAIRY
75%
MEAT
62%
FROZENFOODS
66%
GENERALMERCHANDISE
60%
HOUSEHOLDCARE
56%
GROCERY
73%
PERSONAL
50%
BAKERY
73%
PET CARE
66%
HEALTH
59%
BEAUTY CARE
50%
PRODUCE
74%
DELI
72%
70-75%65-69%60-64%55-59%50-54%
% OF WEEKS THAT DON’T BREAK EVEN
ON AVERAGE, 67% OF PROMOTIONS DON’T
MAKE MONEY.
Trade promotion effectiveness varies from across departments
Source: Nielsen Trade Promotion Landscape Analysis 2014 Q3

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SOME RECENT EXAMPLES OF SUCCESSFUL NPD
By our Favourite Brands offering new Consumer Occasions/Experiences/Packaging

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BUT MOST PRODUCTS HAVE A SHORT LIFE
Less than 3 out of 10 items survive their first year
Source: Nielsen Innovation Analysis, across France, UK, Italy, Spain
% of new items
with store sales 100% 55% 24%
LAUNCH
Week 1 Week 26 Week 52

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>75%
Success rate with Nielsen
Factors for SuccessTM
All New Products
10%
INCREASING THE ODDS OF SUCCESS

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AT NIELSEN WE CHALLENGE TO CREATE SUCCESS.
As brand owners are we challenging our investments wisely enough.
AVAILABILITY
Store Testing
allows you to
make informed
choices before
making a full
investment.
PROMOTION
Have you
measured how
efficiently your
promotions
are working
for you?
Knowing your
profitability
allows for
greater agility.
ADVERTISING
Do we
continue with
the same
media
campaigns or
start afresh?
Measure your
return on
investment
before making
that decision.
INNOVATION
Successful
innovation is
neither luck
nor magic
there is a
logical
framework to
follow to
increase your
success rate.

28. THANK YOU