This document discusses the need for a systematic approach and simulation tools to analyze complex and decentralized future energy systems. It describes tools and methods developed for regional energy system analysis, including optimization models, energy flow simulators, and demand response simulation. As a case study, it examines scenarios for the district heating network in Järvenpää from 2015-2035, exploring building stock changes, energy efficiency improvements, and options for industrial waste heat and prosumer heat sales. Evaluation of the scenarios will consider energy, ecological, and economic aspects. More detailed results and related publications are referenced.

1. Approach for regional
energy system analysis
3.9.2015
Ismo Heimonen
Senior Scientist
VTT

2. Future energy systems
• Versatile and complex energy systems
• trend of decentralization
• the end-users starting to produce part of the own energy use
(prosumers)
• new technical possibilities in energy production
• increase of the local energy and renewables
• improvement of the energy efficiency of buildings
• increase of the uncertainty of the energy business
⇒ Systematic approach and simulation tools needed
⇒ Case studies in EFEU and FlexE
3.9.2015

3. Set of tools and methods developed and
used during EFEU
PeXa Primary Exergy
Efficiency Analysis
(Aalto)
Optimization of LNG
supply chains (ÅA)
Optimization of gas
distribution network
(ÅA)
A Spatial Decomposition
Procedure for Efficient
Solution of Two-Dimensional
Energy Distribution Problems
(ÅA)
A model for optimizing
the regional mix of
intermittent and
flexible energy (ÅA)
Ship Energy Flow
Simulator (VTT)
Online Energy Flow
Forecasting Methods
(VTT)
VTT business network
analysis approach
LUT energy efficiency
analysis approach
Solvo® Regio
(Fortum)
Simulation of demand response
in communities within NetZED
concept (Empower)
APROS, simulation of
dynamic processes
(VTT & Fortum)

4. Case study Järvenpää district heating
• Existing network as platform for the study
• Scenario approach, possible pathways for 2015-2035
• Building stock and energy efficiency scenarios
• Energy system scenarios
1. Conservative => 1 % of floor area changed to ground
source heat pump GSHP
2. Extensive => 10 % GSHP or solar thermal collectors
STC
3. Extreme => 50 % GSHP or STC
4. Industrial waste heat, ’excess heat’
5. Heat prosumer, extra heat sold back to district heating
network
• Evaluation basis for the cases:
• Energy – ecology – economy – social aspects

5. Examples of results
Energy
Ecology Economy

6. Thank you!
More results…
• Posters about the tools
• Reports about the scenario studies
• ’Visions for future energy efficient district energy systems’,
Satu Paiho et al.; to be published in VTT Technology series
• Future district energy systems, Master’s Thesis Elina Grahn