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Economy on the rebound, to pick pace in
Q2: Government
Economics for manager
Presented by:madhav lankapati
Vaibhav mishra
Analysis
• Shrugging off the impact of demonetization and the
Goods and Services Tax (GST), the economy seems
to be on the rebound.
• Official data released in economics time showed
that GDP grew 6.3 per cent in the July-September
quarter, with robust expansion in manufacturing,
electricity production and trade and hotels sectors.
This is higher than the 5.7 per cent GDP growth in
the April-June quarter, but lower than the 7.5 per
cent growth in the second quarter of last fiscal.
• Gross value added (GVA) grew by 6.1 per cent in
the second quarter, against 5.6 per cent in the first
quarter.
• The economic rebound may be carried forward into
the third quarter, with core sector industries
growing by 4.7 per cent in October, unchanged
from the previous month, supported by strong
growth of refinery products and steel output.
Analysis
• Finance Minister Arun Jaitley said the GDP data showed the
impact of demonetization and GST has worn off. “It marks a
reversal and is driven by manufacturing, and investment is
growing,” he told reporters.
• “We had been seeing declining numbers from the fourth
quarter of 2016-17. This marks a reversal, and is
encouraging,” said TCA Anant, Secretary, Ministry of Statistics
and Programme Implementation.
• In fact, Q2 GDP growth may have been underestimated due
to lack of adequate data on GST collections and sales tax, he
added.
• Finance Secretary Hasmukh Adhia noted that taxes paid in
the July quarter are still to be calculated and could be revised
upwards
Analysis
• The data come ahead of the monetary policy review on December 6; most
analysts expect the Reserve Bank of India to maintain rates.
• However, the Centre’s financial health remains under pressure: the fiscal
deficit rose to ₹5,25,321 crore between April and October, or 96.1 per cent of
the Budget Estimate as receipts lagged expenditure.
• The revenue deficit overshot the full-year target by 24.7 per cent to ₹ 4,01,085
crore between April and October. The Centre hopes to maintain its fiscal
deficit at 3.2 per cent of GDP.
Thank you.

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Economy on the rebound, to pick pace in q2 government

  • 1. Economy on the rebound, to pick pace in Q2: Government Economics for manager Presented by:madhav lankapati Vaibhav mishra
  • 2. Analysis • Shrugging off the impact of demonetization and the Goods and Services Tax (GST), the economy seems to be on the rebound. • Official data released in economics time showed that GDP grew 6.3 per cent in the July-September quarter, with robust expansion in manufacturing, electricity production and trade and hotels sectors. This is higher than the 5.7 per cent GDP growth in the April-June quarter, but lower than the 7.5 per cent growth in the second quarter of last fiscal. • Gross value added (GVA) grew by 6.1 per cent in the second quarter, against 5.6 per cent in the first quarter. • The economic rebound may be carried forward into the third quarter, with core sector industries growing by 4.7 per cent in October, unchanged from the previous month, supported by strong growth of refinery products and steel output.
  • 3. Analysis • Finance Minister Arun Jaitley said the GDP data showed the impact of demonetization and GST has worn off. “It marks a reversal and is driven by manufacturing, and investment is growing,” he told reporters. • “We had been seeing declining numbers from the fourth quarter of 2016-17. This marks a reversal, and is encouraging,” said TCA Anant, Secretary, Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation. • In fact, Q2 GDP growth may have been underestimated due to lack of adequate data on GST collections and sales tax, he added. • Finance Secretary Hasmukh Adhia noted that taxes paid in the July quarter are still to be calculated and could be revised upwards
  • 4. Analysis • The data come ahead of the monetary policy review on December 6; most analysts expect the Reserve Bank of India to maintain rates. • However, the Centre’s financial health remains under pressure: the fiscal deficit rose to ₹5,25,321 crore between April and October, or 96.1 per cent of the Budget Estimate as receipts lagged expenditure. • The revenue deficit overshot the full-year target by 24.7 per cent to ₹ 4,01,085 crore between April and October. The Centre hopes to maintain its fiscal deficit at 3.2 per cent of GDP.