2. 3nd Quarter GDP: 2.0% (Initial Estimate)3nd
Quarter GDP: 2.0% (Initial Estimate)
Video, Job Loss/Gain & GDP
Source: CNBC, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), Wall Street Journal
Video & Economic SummaryVideo & Economic Summary
GDP Release
GDP was 2.0% in the 2th
quarter (initial estimate)
Videos start with 15 sec commercial
Anticipating the jobs report (Nov 5, 2010) (5 min 40 sec)
with Tig Gilliam, Adecco Group North America,
Mark Zandi, Moody's Analytics
Click to Play`
Tracking in Job Growth 2010
The United States needs to increase by
~125,000 jobs on average/month (on the
Household survey) to keep the
unemployment rate from decreasing (because
the population of the United States typically
increased by ~1.5 million workers every year
due to population growth and immigration).
BLS Surveys
(Monthly Jobs Growth/Loss)
Month Household Payroll
Jan 541 14
Feb 308 39
March 264 208
April 550 313
May -35 432
June -301 -175
July -159 -66
Aug 290 -1
Sept 141 -41
Oct -330 151
Total 1,269 874
Avg/Month 127 87
2009 2010
Components of
GDP 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd
Consumers
-0.34% -1.12% 1.41% 0.69% 1.33% 1.54% 1.79%
(Personal
Consumption)
*Businesses
-6.80% -2.30% 1.22% 2.70% 3.04% 2.88% 1.54%
(Gross Private
Domestic Investment)
Net Exports
(Exports-Imports) 2.88% 1.47% -1.37% 1.90% -0.31% -3.50% -2.01%
Government -0.61% 1.24% 0.33% -0.28% -0.32% 0.80% 0.68%
Total GDP -4.90% -7.00% 1.60% 5.00% 3.70% 1.72% 2.00%
*Inventories
-1.09% -1.03% 1.10% 2.83% 2.64% 0.82% 1.44%component of Business
3. Number of people employed as a temporary employee
divided by total non farm payroll employment
June 2009 Recession Officially Ended
July 2009 Temp Penetration Trend Turns Positive
Oct 2009 1st
Job Growth >100,000 (Household
Survey)
Nov 2009 1st
Job Growth (Payroll Survey)
Temp Employment
Temporary help services gained 35,000 jobs.
Why is the Temp Penetration Rate Important?
“Temporary Help Employment is a Leading Indicator
for Nonfarm Employment—Staffing job trends lead
nonfarm employment by three months when the
economy is emerging from a recession and by six
months during periods of normal economic growth.”
American Staffing Association
US Employment Situation
Temp Penetration Rate: 1.67% .03%Temp Penetration Rate: 1.67% .03%
Job Loses
Change from
Previous Month
Government -8,000
Manufacturing -7,000
Leisure &
Hospitality -5,000
Financial Activities -1,000
Job Gains
Change from
Previous Month
Professional &
Business Services 46,000
Retail Trade 27,900
Construction 5,000
Education &
Health Services 53,000
- Education 19,200
- Healthcare 24,100
- Social Assistance 9,900
Job Loss/Gain: +151,000 JobsJob Loss/Gain: +151,000 Jobs Unemployment Rate: 9.6% no changeUnemployment Rate: 9.6% no change
Unemployment Rate: Bachelor’s Degree or higher
June July Aug Sept Oct
4.4% 4.5% 4.6% 4.4% 4.7%
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, American Staffing Association
Nonfarm Payroll – Job Growth Details Jobs Added/Lost
Private Sector 159,000
Government Sector -8,000
Census -5,000
Federal, State, Local -3,000
Total +151,000
End of the Census: There were only about 1,000
temporary census workers remaining on Federal Payrolls in
October.
4. USA Today: One Year Forecast
Change in Jobs (3rd
Qtr 2011 vs. 3rd
Qtr 2010)
USA Today: One Year Forecast
Change in Jobs (3rd
Qtr 2011 vs. 3rd
Qtr 2010)
GDP Projections
Survey of Economists (Wall Street Journal)
GDP Projections
Survey of Economists (Wall Street Journal)
Unemployment Rate Projections
Survey of Economists (Wall Street Journal)
Unemployment Rate Projections
Survey of Economists (Wall Street Journal)
Projections
Source: Wall Street Journal, USA Today
Please note: WSJ Projections were released prior to the BLS report
For Interactive Graph: Click Here
