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Economic Update
        February 2013




Michael Hespen
National Account Executive
Non Farm Payroll Revisions                                                                                      4th Qtr. GDP: -0.1% (Initial Estimate)
 Bureau of Labor Statistics
 November 2012 revised from +161,000 to +247,000
 December 2012 revised from +155,000 to +196,000
 Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses since the last published estimates
 and the monthly recalculation of seasonal factors. The annual benchmark process also contributed to these
 revisions.


Four Takeaways From January Jobs Report (Wall Street Journal)

Slow and Steady: Job growth slowed in January, but at a bit better than 150,000 new jobs, the overall
pace of growth stayed relatively steady. The private sector drove the growth, as it has for most of the
past two-plus years, adding 166,000 jobs while the government cut payrolls 9,000. The recent pace of
growth hasn’t been enough to make a dent in the unemployment rate, which rose slightly and has
been more or less stuck since the end of the summer.

Huge Revisions: The real news in today’s report may not be in January’s figures but in December                                             2011                       2012
and November’s, which were revised upward by a combined 127,000 jobs. November’s jobs growth                     Components
now registers a fairly impressive 247,000 net gain in jobs (256,000 in the private sector), and                    of GDP          1st  2nd   3rd   4th    1st  2nd   3rd   4th
employers added 196,000 jobs in December despite fears of the Fiscal Cliff. The significance of the             Consumers        2.22% 0.70% 1.18% 1.45% 1.72% 1.06% 1.12% 1.52%
revisions goes beyond their sheer size: The Labor Department’s initial estimates often lag behind               (Personal
shifts in the job market, showing too little growth when hiring is speeding up and too much when it is          Consumption)
slowing down. So today’s revisions could be a sign that the labor market is gaining steam.                      *Businesses      -0.68% 1.40% 0.68% 3.72% 0.78% 0.09% 0.85% -0.08%
                                                                                                                (Gross Private
Pace of Growth Looks Better: For most of last year, it looked like the economy was adding around                Domestic
150,000 jobs per month. Turns out, job growth actually averaged a more robust 181,000 jobs per                  Investment)
month for the year. The revised figure reflects not just the November and December revisions but also           Net Exports
the government’s annual “benchmark” revisions, which added 422,000 jobs in the year that ended last              (Exports-       0.03% 0.54% 0.02% -0.64% 0.06% 0.23% 0.38% -0.25%
March. With the revisions, 2012 now stands as the best year of the recovery in terms of job growth,             Imports)
ever so slightly better than 2011, when the economy added an average of 175,000 jobs per month.                 Government       -1.49% -0.16% -0.60% -0.43% -0.60% -0.14% 0.75% -1.33%
                                                                                                                Total GDP        0.08% 2.48% 1.28% 4.10% 1.96% 1.24% 3.10% -0.14%
Consumer Sector Shows Strength: Retailers added 33,000 jobs in January, and restaurants added
17,000 jobs. The improving housing market may also finally be showing up in construction
employment, which rose by 28,000 jobs and is up by 82,000 in the past three months. But                         *Inventories -0.54% 0.01% -1.07% 2.53% -0.39% -0.46% 0.73% -1.27%
manufacturing employment was essentially flat, and factories cut back on workers’ hours.                        component of
                                                                                                                Business


Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Wall Street
Journal, Bureau of Economic Analysis
Temp Penetration Rate: 1.90%                  0.1%      Job Loss/Gain:            + 157,000 Jobs               Unemployment Rate: 7.9%              0.1%




                          I




                                                                                  Change from Previous
Number of people employed as a temporary employee                 Job Gains              Month             Unemployment Rate: Bachelor’s Degree or higher
   divided by total non farm payroll employment         Retail Trade                   32,600
                                                        Construction                   28,000
Temp Employment                                         Professional & Business                                   Oct     Nov      Dec       Jan
                                                                                       25,000
Temporary help services lost 8,100 jobs.                Services                                                 3.7%     3.9%     3.9%     3.7%
                                                        Leisure & Hospitality          23,000
Why is the Temp Penetration Rate Important?             Financial Activities            6,000
“Temporary Help Employment is a Leading Indicator for
                                                        Manufacturing                   4,000
Nonfarm Employment—Staffing job trends lead                                                               Nonfarm Payroll –
                                                        Education & Health                                                                Jobs Added/Lost
nonfarm employment by three months when the                                            25,000             Job Growth Details
                                                        Services
economy is emerging from a recession and by six
months during periods of normal economic growth.”
                                                          - Education                   -2,000            Private Sector                     166,000
                                                           - Healthcare                 22,800            Government Sector                  - 9,000
American Staffing Association
                                                          - Social Assistance            4,800            Total                              157,000
                                                                                   Change from Previous
                                                              Job Losses                  Month

                                                        Government                      -9,000

   Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics,
   American Staffing Association
Unemployment Rate Projections                                         Revisions to 2011 & 2012 BLS Labor Data
Survey of Economists (Wall Street Journal                             (Looking Better But A Ways To Go – Wall Street Journal)




/




    GDP Projections
                                                                      http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=300
    Survey of Economists (Wall Street Journal)                        0144702&play=1




/




Source: Wall Street Journal, New York Times
Please note: WSJ Projections were released prior to the BLS report,
Business Insider Chart of the Day, Calculated Risk Blog

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Economic update (feb 2013)

  • 1. Economic Update February 2013 Michael Hespen National Account Executive
  • 2. Non Farm Payroll Revisions 4th Qtr. GDP: -0.1% (Initial Estimate) Bureau of Labor Statistics November 2012 revised from +161,000 to +247,000 December 2012 revised from +155,000 to +196,000 Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses since the last published estimates and the monthly recalculation of seasonal factors. The annual benchmark process also contributed to these revisions. Four Takeaways From January Jobs Report (Wall Street Journal) Slow and Steady: Job growth slowed in January, but at a bit better than 150,000 new jobs, the overall pace of growth stayed relatively steady. The private sector drove the growth, as it has for most of the past two-plus years, adding 166,000 jobs while the government cut payrolls 9,000. The recent pace of growth hasn’t been enough to make a dent in the unemployment rate, which rose slightly and has been more or less stuck since the end of the summer. Huge Revisions: The real news in today’s report may not be in January’s figures but in December 2011 2012 and November’s, which were revised upward by a combined 127,000 jobs. November’s jobs growth Components now registers a fairly impressive 247,000 net gain in jobs (256,000 in the private sector), and of GDP 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th employers added 196,000 jobs in December despite fears of the Fiscal Cliff. The significance of the Consumers 2.22% 0.70% 1.18% 1.45% 1.72% 1.06% 1.12% 1.52% revisions goes beyond their sheer size: The Labor Department’s initial estimates often lag behind (Personal shifts in the job market, showing too little growth when hiring is speeding up and too much when it is Consumption) slowing down. So today’s revisions could be a sign that the labor market is gaining steam. *Businesses -0.68% 1.40% 0.68% 3.72% 0.78% 0.09% 0.85% -0.08% (Gross Private Pace of Growth Looks Better: For most of last year, it looked like the economy was adding around Domestic 150,000 jobs per month. Turns out, job growth actually averaged a more robust 181,000 jobs per Investment) month for the year. The revised figure reflects not just the November and December revisions but also Net Exports the government’s annual “benchmark” revisions, which added 422,000 jobs in the year that ended last (Exports- 0.03% 0.54% 0.02% -0.64% 0.06% 0.23% 0.38% -0.25% March. With the revisions, 2012 now stands as the best year of the recovery in terms of job growth, Imports) ever so slightly better than 2011, when the economy added an average of 175,000 jobs per month. Government -1.49% -0.16% -0.60% -0.43% -0.60% -0.14% 0.75% -1.33% Total GDP 0.08% 2.48% 1.28% 4.10% 1.96% 1.24% 3.10% -0.14% Consumer Sector Shows Strength: Retailers added 33,000 jobs in January, and restaurants added 17,000 jobs. The improving housing market may also finally be showing up in construction employment, which rose by 28,000 jobs and is up by 82,000 in the past three months. But *Inventories -0.54% 0.01% -1.07% 2.53% -0.39% -0.46% 0.73% -1.27% manufacturing employment was essentially flat, and factories cut back on workers’ hours. component of Business Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Wall Street Journal, Bureau of Economic Analysis
  • 3. Temp Penetration Rate: 1.90% 0.1% Job Loss/Gain: + 157,000 Jobs Unemployment Rate: 7.9% 0.1% I Change from Previous Number of people employed as a temporary employee Job Gains Month Unemployment Rate: Bachelor’s Degree or higher divided by total non farm payroll employment Retail Trade 32,600 Construction 28,000 Temp Employment Professional & Business Oct Nov Dec Jan 25,000 Temporary help services lost 8,100 jobs. Services 3.7% 3.9% 3.9% 3.7% Leisure & Hospitality 23,000 Why is the Temp Penetration Rate Important? Financial Activities 6,000 “Temporary Help Employment is a Leading Indicator for Manufacturing 4,000 Nonfarm Employment—Staffing job trends lead Nonfarm Payroll – Education & Health Jobs Added/Lost nonfarm employment by three months when the 25,000 Job Growth Details Services economy is emerging from a recession and by six months during periods of normal economic growth.” - Education -2,000 Private Sector 166,000 - Healthcare 22,800 Government Sector - 9,000 American Staffing Association - Social Assistance 4,800 Total 157,000 Change from Previous Job Losses Month Government -9,000 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, American Staffing Association
  • 4. Unemployment Rate Projections Revisions to 2011 & 2012 BLS Labor Data Survey of Economists (Wall Street Journal (Looking Better But A Ways To Go – Wall Street Journal) / GDP Projections http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=300 Survey of Economists (Wall Street Journal) 0144702&play=1 / Source: Wall Street Journal, New York Times Please note: WSJ Projections were released prior to the BLS report, Business Insider Chart of the Day, Calculated Risk Blog