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MINISTRY of ECONOMY
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
January 2016
Recent Update: 12/26/2015
A- MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK…………………………………………………… 3
B- FOREIGN TRADE OUTLOOK…………………………………………………….. 19
1) MERCHANDISE…………………………………………………………... 20
2) SERVICES…………………………………………………………………….. 32
C- INVESTMENTS , FOREIGN CAPITAL and INCENTIVES…………………. 37
D- FREE ZONES in TURKEY…………………………………………………………… 44
E- BILATERAL, REGIONAL, PLURILATERAL and MULTILATERAL TRADE 49
OUTLINE
January 2016 Ministry of Economy 2
A- MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK
January 2016 Ministry of Economy 3
Growth Forecasts of International Organizations (%)
 In 2014, Turkish economy grew by 2.9%.
 According to the IMF, Turkish Economy is expected to grow by 3% in
2015 and 2.9% in 2016
Source: IMF, OECD, WB
January 2016 Ministry of Economy 4
Growth Forecast for Selected Countries/Country Groups(%)
World Turkey Euro Area US Brazil Russia India China
IMF
2015 3,1 3,0 1,5 2,5 -3,8 -3,7 7,3 6,9
2016 3,4 2,9 1,7 2,6 -3,5 -1,0 7,5 6,3
OECD
2015 2,9 3,1 1,5 2,4 -3,1 -4,0 7,2 6,8
2016 3,3 3,4 1,8 2,5 -1,2 -0,4 7,3 6,5
WB
2015 2,4 4,2 1,5 2,5 -3,7 -3,8 7,3 6,9
2016 2,9 3,5 1,7 2,7 -2,5 -0,7 7,8 6,7
 According to the IMF estimates, global trade volume of merchandise and
services is expected to increase by 3.2% in in 2015 and 4.1% in 2016.
 According to the WTO estimates, global trade volume of merchandise and
services is expected to increase by 2.8% in 2015 and 3.9% in 2016.
Forecasts for Merchandise Trade Growth (%)
Source: IMF and WTO
January 2016 Ministry of Economy 5
Forecasts for Merchandise Trade Growth(%)
World Trade
VolumeYears
Exports Imports
Advanced
Economies
Emerging
Economies
Advanced
Economies
Emerging
Economies
IMF
2015 2,8 3,5 3,7 1,5 3,2
2016 3,1 4,6 4,0 4,3 4,1
WTO
2015 3,0 2,4 3,1 2,5 2,8
2016 3,9 3,8 3,2 5,2 3,9
Top 20 Economies (Current, PPP)
Source: IMF
 Turkey ranks as the 18th largest economy in the World and 7th in Europe.
January 2016 Ministry of Economy 6
Economic Targets of 2016-2018 Medium Term Program
**Purchasing Power Parity
(Medium Term Program, Ministry of Development)
 Medium Term Program, which covers 2016-2018 period, aims to
increase growth as well as providing its comprehension via
structural reforms, while continuing to reduce the current account
deficit and inflation gradually.
January 2016 Ministry of Economy 7
2015 2016 2017 2018
GDP (Billion TL, Current Prices) 1963 2207 2489 2770
GDP Per Capita ($)** 20.298 21.240 22.460 23.829
Real GDP Growth 4,0 4,5 5,0 5,0
Unemployment Rate(%) 10,2 10,2 9,9 9,6
Tourism Income (Billion $) 27,0 27,0 29,4 31,8
Current Account Balance (Billion $) -31,7 -28,6 -29,3 -29,9
Current Account Balance/GDP(%) -4,4 -3,9 -3,7 -3,5
Real GDP Growth of Selected Countries/Country Groups (2014)
 Turkish Economy expanded by 4.2% in 2013 and 2.9% in 2014.
Source: TURKSTAT, IMF
January 2016 Ministry of Economy 8
Economic Growth Rates (2002-2015)
Source: TURKSTAT
 Mean annual growth rate between 2002 and 2014 was 4.7%.
 GDP growth for the 1st quarter of 2015 was 2.5%, 3.8% for the 2nd quarter
and 4% for the third quarter
 Growth rate was 3.4% for the first 9 months of this year.
January 2016 Ministry of Economy 9
5.3
9.4
8.4
6.9
4.7
0.7
-4.8
9.2
8.8
2.1
4.2
2.9
2.5
3.8 4.0
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015-I 2015-II 2015-III
GDP Per Capita
Source: TURKSTAT,
 Since 2002 GDP per capita has tripled from 3,492 USD to 10,390 USD in
2014. In PPP terms GDP per capita exceeded 19,000 USD in 2014.
January 2016 Ministry of Economy 10
Capacity Utilization Ratio (%)
Source: CBRT
 Capacity utilization ratio in january 2016 decreased by 0.9 points
compared to that of previous month and realized as 74,9%.
January 2016 Ministry of Economy 11
Industrial Production Index (2010=100)
Source: TURKSTAT
 Industrial production index rose by 3,6% year-on-year to 130,0 (2010=100) in
October 2015.
January 2016 Ministry of Economy 12
PMI (Purchasing Manager Index)
PMI increased to 52,2 in December 2015, higher than the
previous month’s level (50,9).
January 2016 Ministry of Economy 13
Inflation (Annual Percentage Change)
 Inflation rates in December 2015 were 8.8% and 5.71% according to CPI
and PPI, respectively.
Source: TURKSTAT
January 2016 Ministry of Economy 14
Unemployment Rates (%)
Source: TURKSTAT
 In October 2015, unemployment rate was 10.5% . In 2014, it was 9.9%.
 Seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in Euro Area was 10.5 % and 9.1 % in (EU28) in
October 2015. In terms of unemployment ratio Turkey outperformed 6 EU members according
to current data.
 After Russia, Germany, England and France, Turkey has the 5th largest labor force among the
European countries. (2014, Economist Intelligence Unit)
January 2016 Ministry of Economy 15
CDS Premiums (January 25th, 2016)
Source: Deutsche Bank Research, Bloomberg
* Higher CDS premiums indicate higher risk levels.
January 2016 Ministry of Economy 16
44
68
105
128
119
166
209
174
286
294
489
374
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
Ireland
S.Korea
Spain
China
Italy
Hungary
Portugal
Bulgaria
Turkey
Croatia
Brazil
Russia
Central Government Budget Deficit/ GDP (%)
 Central government budget deficit/GDP ratio in 2013 was 1.2% and Turkey complied
with the Maastricht criteria of 3%. Turkey also outperformed 22 EU Countries. For the
year 2014, the same ratio was 1.3%.
 In January-December 2015 period, central government budget deficit was 22,6 billion
TL compared to 23,3 billion TL deficit in the same period of 2014.
Source: Eurostat, TUİK
* 2014
January 2016 Ministry of Economy 17
Government Debt / GDP (%)
 Debt/GDP ratio of Turkey was 36.2% in 2013 indicating a level below the
Maastricht Criterion (60%). Turkey also outperformed 25 EU countries.
 In 2014, the ratio was realized at 33.5%
Source: Eurostat
*2014
January 2016 Ministry of Economy 18
B- FOREIGN TRADE
OUTLOOK
January 2016 Ministry of Economy 19
I) MERCHANDISE
January 2016 Ministry of Economy 20
Targets in Merchandise Trade
Turkish Statistical Institute
*Forecast: Medium Term Programme, Ministry of Development, 2016-2018)
**The Exports Strategy of Turkey For 2023
January 2016 Ministry of Economy 21
(Billion $) 2014 2015* 2016* 2017* 2018* 2023**
Exports 157.6 143.9 155.5 175.8 201.4 500
Imports 242.2 207.1 210.7 243.1 273.2 625
Volume of trade 399.8 351.0 366.2 418.9 474.6 1125
Balance of trade -84.5 -63.1 -55.2 -67.2 -71.8 -125
Exports/Imports (%) 65.1 69.5 73.8 72.3 73.7 80
Turkey's Share in Global Merchandise Exports (%)
 Turkey’s share in global merchandise exports was %0.83 in
2014.
January 2016 Ministry of Economy 22
Turkey's Share in Global Merchandise Imports (%)
 Turkey’s share in global merchandise imports was %1.27 in 2014.
January 2016 Ministry of Economy 23
Foreign Trade Developments
In first eleven months of 2015, compared to the same period of 2014, exports decreased by 8.4%
and imports decreased by 14,1%.
Source: Ministry of Economy
* Energy corresponds to Chapter 27.
January 2016 Ministry of Economy 24
2013 2014 2014/(JAN-NOV) 2015/(JAN - NOV)
Change (%)
2014/2015
Export 151.8 157.6 144.3 132.2 -8.4
Energy Export* 6.7 6.1 5.7 4.2 -27.1
Gold Export 3.3 3.2 3.2 7.4 132.2
Import 251.7 242.2 220.4 189.2 -14.1
Energy Import* 55.9 54.9 50.5 34.8 -31.0
Gold Import 15.1 7.1 6.5 3.1 -52.2
Foreign Trade Volume 403.5 399.8 364.7 321.4 -11.9
Foreign Trade Balance -99.9 -84.6 -76.0 -57.0 -25.0
Balance excl. Energy -50.7 -35.8 -31.3 -26.4 -15.8
Export/Import (%) 60.3 65.1 65.5 69.9 6.7
Annual (Billion $) Periodic (Billion Dollar)
Monthly Exports and Imports
In November, 2015 compared to the same month of 2014, exports have decreased by 10.2% and realized
as 11.7 billion dollars and imports have decreased by 25.3% down to the level of 15.9 billion dollars.
January 2016 Ministry of Economy 25
Distribution of Foreign Trade in Broad Economic Categories
January 2016 Ministry of Economy 26
EXPORT
IMPORT
Source: TURKSTAT
EXPORT (Milyon $) 2014 2015 2014 2015 Change (%)
Share
%
Investment Goods 1,288 1,417 10.0 14,644 13,981 -4.5 10.6
Intermediate Goods 5,692 5,000 -12.2 69,350 63,577 -8.3 48.1
Consumption Goods 6,001 5,284 -11.9 59,333 53,965 -9.0 40.8
Others 86 37 -57.0 1,013 671 -33.8 0.5
TOTAL 13,067 11,738 -10.2 144,340 132,194 -8.4 100
November
Change (%)
January-November
İMPORT (Milyon $) 2014 2015 2014 2015 Change (%)
Share
%
Investment Goods 3,033 2,688 -11.4 32,185 31,622 -1.7 16.7
Intermediate Goods 15,908 10,980 -31.0 161,654 131,165 -18.9 69.3
Consumption Goods 2,423 2,270 -6.3 26,146 26,034 -0.4 13.8
Others 21 36 71.4 404 399 -1.2 0.2
TOTAL 21,385 15,974 -25.3 220,389 189,220 -14.1 100
November
Change (%)
January-November
Main Export Items
January 2016 Ministry of Economy 27
* Percent change is related to the annual change in exports in 2015.
Source: TURKSTAT
Million Dollar CHANGE % *
Rank Code Periodic (January-November) 2014 2015 2014 2015 2014 2015 2014/2015
1 87 VEHICLE OTHER THANRAILWAYOR TRAMWAY 16,544 15,843 13,920 15,899 2,624 -56 -4.2
2 84 BOILERS, MACHINERYAND MECHANICAL APPLIANCES 12,435 11,255 25,236 23,048 -12,801 -11,794 -9.5
3 71 PEARLS, PRECIOUS STONES, PRECIOUS METALS 7,227 10,932 7,417 3,807 -189 7,125 51.3
4 61 KNITTED AND CROCHETED GOODS AND ARTICLES THEREOF 9,301 8,208 920 799 8,381 7,409 -11.7
5 85 ELECTRICAL MACHINERYAND EQUIPMENT, PARTS THEREOF 8,775 7,543 16,242 15,995 -7,467 -8,452 -14.0
6 72 IRONAND STEEL 8,441 6,068 16,152 13,651 -7,710 -7,582 -28.1
7 62 NONKNITTED AND CROCHETED GOODS AND ARTICLES THEREOF 5,773 5,439 1,758 1,672 4,015 3,767 -5.8
8 73 ARTICLES OF IRONAND STEEL 5,773 5,034 2,395 2,468 3,378 2,566 -12.8
9 39 PLASTIC AND ARTICLES THEREOF 5,617 4,941 13,036 11,233 -7,419 -6,292 -12.0
10 27 MINERAL FUELS AND MINERALS OILS 5,714 4,164 50,477 34,835 -44,763 -30,671 -27.1
85,601 79,428 147,553 123,406 -61,952 -43,978 -7.2
144,341 132,194 220,389 189,219 -76,048 -57,025 -8.4
EXPORTS IMPORTS BALANCE
List Total
Total
Main Import Items
January 2016 Ministry of Economy 28
* Percent change is related to the annual change in imports in 2015.
Source: TURKSTAT
Million Dollar CHANGE % *
Rank Code Periodic (January-November) 2014 2015 2014 2015 2014 2015 2014/2015
1 27 MINERAL FUELS AND MINERALS OILS 50,699 34,835 5,714 4,164 -44,985 -30,671 -31.3
2 84 BOILERS,MACHINERYAND MECHANICAL APPLIANCES,PARTS THEREOF 27,025 23,048 12,435 11,255 -14,590 -11,793 -14.7
3 85 ELECTRICAL MACHINERYAND EQUIPMENT,PARTS THEREOF 16,112 15,995 8,775 7,543 -7,337 -8,452 -0.7
4 87 VEHICLE OTHER THANRAILWAYOR TRAMWAYROLLING-STOCK,PARTS THEREOF 15,143 15,899 16,544 15,843 1,401 -56 5.0
5 72 İRONAND STEEL 16,887 13,651 8,441 6,068 -8,446 -7,583 -19.2
6 39 PLASTIC AND ARTICLES THEREOF 12,785 11,233 5,617 4,941 -7,168 -6,292 -12.1
7 29 ORGANIC CHEMICALS 4,869 4,339 498 430 -4,371 -3,909 -10.9
8 90 OPTICAL,PHOTOGRAPHIC,CINEMATOGRAPHIC,MEASURING CHECKING,PRECISION 4,102 4,150 631 657 -3,471 -3,493 1.2
9 30 PHARMACEUTICAL PRODUCTS 3,783 3,856 723 785 -3,060 -3,071 1.9
10 71 PRECİOUS STONES,PRECİOUS METALS 14,757 3,807 7,227 10,932 -7,530 7,125 -74.2
166,162 130,812 66,605 62,618 -99,557 -68,194 -21.3
220,389 189,219 144,341 132,194 -76,048 -57,025 -14.1
IMPORT EXPORT BALANCE
ListTotal
Total
Main Export Partners (Share,%)
Main Trade Partners (January –November 2015)
Main Import Partners (Share,%)
Source: TURKSTAT
January 2016 Ministry of Economy 29
9.3
7.4
6.1
4.7
4.4
Germany
United Kingdom
Iraq
Italy
USA
12
10.2
9.9
5.4
5.1
China
Germany
Russia
Italy
USA
Exports by Regions
Source: TURKSTAT
January 2016 Ministry of Economy 30
2014 2015 % Share % Chg. 2014 2015 % Share % Chg.
EU (28) 5,720 5,631 48.0 -1.5 63,178 58,633 44.4 -7.2
FREE ZONES IN TURKEY 182 149 1.3 -18.1 2,074 1,741 1.3 -16.1
OTHER EUROPE 1,152 855 7.3 -25.8 14,243 13,428 10.2 -5.7
AFRİCA 1,056 1,059 9.0 0.3 12,517 11,274 8.5 -9.9
North Africa 748 712 6.1 -4.8 8,887 7,714 5.8 -13.2
Other Africa 308 347 3.0 12.7 3,631 3,560 2.7 -2.0
AMERICA 852 753 6.4 -11.6 9,083 8,414 6.4 -7.4
North America 653 559 4.8 -14.4 6,502 6,425 4.9 -1.2
Central America and Caraips 58 117 1.0 101.3 847 794 0.6 -6.3
South America 140 77 0.7 -45.0 1,734 1,195 0.9 -31.1
ASIA 4,056 3,240 27.6 -20.1 42,488 38,045 28.8 -10.5
Near and Middle East 3,099 2,418 20.6 -22.0 31,908 28,602 21.6 -10.4
Other Asia 958 822 7.0 -14.2 10,580 9,443 7.1 -10.7
AUSTRALIA and NEW ZEALAND 44 41 0.4 -5.2 543 561 0.4 3.4
OTHER COUNTRIES 6 9 0.1 50.1 216 99 0.1 -54.0
Total 13,067 11,738 100 -10.2 144,341 132,194 100 -8.4
EXPORT
(Million $)
November January-November
Imports by Regions
Source: TURKSTAT
January 2016 Ministry of Economy 31
2014 2015 % Share % Chg. 2014 2015 % Share % Chg.
EU(28) 7,426 6,395 40.0 -13.9 80,647 71,588 37.8 -11.2
FREE ZONES IN TURKEY 98 95 0.6 -3.7 1,165 1,128 0.6 -3.1
OTHER EUROPE 3,675 1,911 12.0 -48.0 33,283 25,771 13.6 -22.6
AFRİCA 657 380 2.4 -42.1 5,363 4,654 2.5 -13.2
North Africa 272 209 1.3 -23.0 3,127 2,733 1.4 -12.6
Other Africa 385 171 1.1 -55.6 2,236 1,921 1.0 -14.1
AMERICA 1,647 1,233 7.7 -25.1 17,168 15,323 8.1 -10.7
North America 1,168 850 5.3 -27.2 12,593 11,026 5.8 -12.4
Central America and Caraips 98 70 0.4 -28.5 1,019 962 0.5 -5.6
South America 381 313 2.0 -17.9 3,555 3,335 1.8 -6.2
ASIA 6,428 5,149 32.2 -19.9 69,864 61,203 32.3 -12.4
Near and Middle East 1,938 987 6.2 -49.1 18,887 12,485 6.6 -33.9
Other Asia 4,489 4,162 26.1 -7.3 50,978 48,718 25.7 -4.4
AUSTRALIA and NEW ZEALAND 92 78 0.5 -15.8 479 560 0.3 16.9
OTHER COUNTRIES 1,363 733 4.6 -46.2 12,421 8,994 4.8 -27.6
Total 21,385 15,974 100 -25.3 220,389 189,219 100 -14.1
(Million $)
November January-November
2) SERVICES
January 2016 Ministry of Economy 32
Targets in Services
January 2016 Ministry of Economy 33
Turkey's Share in Global Services Exports (%)
Source: WTO
 Turkey’s share in global exports of services was 1.03% in 2014.
January 2016 Ministry of Economy 34
Turkey's Share in Global Services Imports (%)
Source: WTO
 Turkey’s share in global imports of services was 0.49% in 2014.
January 2016 Ministry of Economy 35
Contracting Services Abroad
 42 out of the world’s top 250
contracting companies are Turkish.
 Turkey ranks as the 2nd country
(following China) in terms of the
number of top contracting companies.
Contributions to the overall
economic performance: Creating
foreign exchange inflow, exports,
employment, technology transfer;
adding to the machinery stock,
facilitating internationalization.
Regional Breakdown of Projects(%)
Years Projects Countries
Project
Volume
(Million $)
Cum.
Project
Volume
(Million $)
Avr.
Project
Volume
(Million $)
1971-2001 2256 48 46,584 46,584 21
2002 208 34 4,127 50,711 20
2003 343 35 6,401 57,112 19
2004 476 36 8,460 65,573 18
2005 451 33 13,245 78,818 29
2006 575 35 22,205 101,023 39
2007 610 45 25,122 126,145 41
2008 657 39 23,874 150,019 36
2009 512 45 20,189 170,207 39
2010 624 50 23,446 193,653 38
2011 552 51 23,027 216,680 42
2012 533 48 29,741 246,421 56
2013 416 48 29,977 276,398 73
2014 324 46 26,824 303,222 83
2015 156 42 19,366 322,588 124
Last updated on December 2015
January 2016 Ministry of Economy 36
C- INVESTMENTS, FOREIGN CAPITAL and
INCENTIVES
January 2016 Ministry of Economy 37
Foreign Direct Investment
 FDI reached 148.75 billion USD in 2003-2014 period, while it
was 14.6 billion USD in 1984-2002 period.
 FDI increased 23.2 % in 2015 January-November with respect to
previous period and reached 14.1 billion USD.
Source: CBRT
January 2016 Ministry of Economy 38
Foreign Direct Investment Abroad
 Turkish citizens’ direct investments abroad reached 33 billion USD from
2003 to date.
 Outward FDI, for the period 2015 January-November and reached 4.9 billion
USD.
Source: CBRT
January 2016 Ministry of Economy 39
The Sectoral Breakdown of Foreign Investments
Source: CBRT
*January-November
January 2016 Ministry of Economy 40
(Million $) 2013 2014 2014* 2015*
AGRICULTURE 47 61 57 46
INDUSTRIAL SECTORS 4,819 4,844 4,346 5,132
Mining and Quarrying 242 364 364 194
Manufacturing 2,207 2,894 2,646 3,601
Production and Distribution of Electricity & Gas 2,334 1,583 1,333 1,335
SERVICES SECTOR 5,000 3,979 3,370 4,794
TOTAL 9,866 8,884 7,773 9,972
Breakdown of Foreign Investments by Country
*January-November
Source: CBRT
January 2016 Ministry of Economy 41
2013 2014* 2015*
1 Spain 506 57 2,154
2 USA 326 175 1,479
3 Netherlands 918 1,949 1,024
4 Russia 875 729 757
5 Belgium 60 39 733
6 England 300 1,033 454
7 China 9 28 446
8 Qatar 469 8 350
9 Luxembourg 278 522 337
10 Malaysia 12 0 327
11 Germany 1,968 624 324
12 Japan 439 211 298
13 Azerbaijan 803 716 294
14 Swiss 204 152 161
15 France 217 97 158
16 Italy 146 473 150
17 Greece 68 92 89
18 United Arab Emirates 176 98 67
19 South Korea 61 42 61
20 Austria 647 48 54
LIST TOTAL 8,482 7,093 9,717
TOTAL 9,866 7,773 9,972
Million Dolar
Investment Incentive System
The current investment incentive system of
Turkey is structured in four sub systems:
 General Investment Incentive System
 Regional Investment Incentive System
 Investment Incentive System for Big Scale
Projects
 Incentive System for Strategic Investments
January 2016 Ministry of Economy 42
Investment Incentives
*January – November
Source: General Directorate of Incentive Implementation and Foreign Investment
January 2016 Ministry of Economy 43
Certificates
Issued
Amount of
Fixed
Investment
(Million TL)
Potential
Employment
(People)
Total Total Total
2013 4,856 96,121 194,385
2014 4,033 64,022 144,471
2015* 3,959 90,655 128,430
Region 1 Region 2 Region 3 Region 4 Region 5 Region 6 Various TOTAL
2013 1,753 797 686 505 470 619 26 4,856
2014 1,446 707 591 447 365 459 17 4,033
2015* 1,303 788 579 426 417 436 10 3,959
CERTIFICATESISSUED
D - FREE ZONES IN TURKEY
January 2016 Ministry of Economy 44
 Tax advantages for manufacturers
 Medium-and long-term investment view
 Availability to transfer profits
 Commercial facilities
 Exemption from customs duties
 Acquisition of the documents relating to the free movement of goods under
the scope of Customs Union with the EU
 Principle of equality
 No time restrictions
 Flexibility to adjust to the market needs and conditions
 Reliable inflation accounting
 Market access to domestic and foreign markets
 Reduced bureaucratic procedures and dynamic business management
 Strategic advantages
 Affordable and compatible infrastructure
 Supply chain opportunities
The Advantages of Free Zones for Users
January 2016 Ministry of Economy 45
Free Zones in Turkey
 61,505 people have been employed in Free Zones of Turkey in 2014.
January 2016 Ministry of Economy 46
Trade Flows of Free Zones
 In 2014, total trade volume of the Free Zones reached 22.4
billion dollars, decreasing 3.5% annually.
Source: General Directorate of Free Zones, Foreign Investments and Services
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
3,195 2,177 2,295 2,668 2,971 2,887 2,732
5,874 4,913 4,361 6,924 7,071 7,701 7,958
8,248 5,493 6,625 7,253 7,257 7,490 7,059
7,262 5,173 5,291 5,801 5,754 5,162 4,683
24,579 17,756 18,572 22,646 23,053 23,240 22,432TOTAL TRADE VOLUME
Million Dollar
From Domestic Market to Free Zones
From Free Zones to Abroad
From Abroad to Free Zones
From Free Zones to Domestic Markets
January 2016 Ministry of Economy 47
Concentration in Free Zones by Industries
Source: General Directorate of Free Zones, Foreign Investments and Services
Istanbul Ataturk Airport FZ Services and Software
Antalya FZ Yacht-building, Medical Equipment
Kocaeli FZ Ship-building
Avrupa FZ Ready-Wear
Mersin FZ Ready-Wear
Bursa FZ Automotive sub-industries
Izmir FZ Leather
TUBITAK-MAMFZ R&D Activities
Adana-Yumurtalik FZ Ship Repair and Maintenance
January 2016 Ministry of Economy 48
E - BILATERAL, REGIONAL,
PLURILATERAL and MULTILATERAL
TRADE
January 2016 Ministry of Economy 49
Trade Relationships of Turkey with Others
Bilateral Trade Relationships of Turkey
Europe, Asia-Pacific, Eurasia, Middle East and North Africa,
Sub-Saharan Africa, Americas
Regional and Multiple Trade Relationships of
Turkey
EU, ECO, D8, BSEC, OIC, COMCEC
Multilateral Trade Relationships of Turkey
WTO, OECD, G20
January 2016 Ministry of Economy 50
1. EFTA (Norway, Switzerland, Iceland,
Liechtenstein)
2. Israel
3. Macedonia
4. Bosnia and Herzegovina
5. Palestine
6. Tunisia
7. Morocco
8. Syria (**)
9. Egypt
10. Albania
(*) Agreements that are in the approval process
(**) Pending
FTA Countries
11. Georgia
12. Montenegro
13. Serbia
14. Chile
15. Jordan
16. South Korea
17. Mauritius
18. Lebanon*
19. Kosovo*
20.Malaysia
21. Moldova*
22. Faroe Islands*
23. Singapore
January 2016 Ministry of Economy 51
1. Ghana*
2. Ukraine
3. Colombia
4. Ecuador
5. Democratic Republic of the
Congo
6. Cameroon
7. Seychelles
FTA Countries(On-going Negotiations)
8. Gulf Cooperation Council
9. Libya
10. MERCOSUR
11. Japan
12. Peru
13. Mexico
* Negotiations completed.
January 2016 Ministry of Economy 52
Multilateral Trade Relationships
Trade in Services Aggrement (TISA)
 Due to the stumble of Doha Development Round and ambitious targets of top services
exporters, TISA negotiations which continue between countries, who makes up 70% of
total world services, in order to increase liberalisation in services trade while Turkey is
included in the negotiations.
Non Agricultural Market Access (NAMA)
 NAMA refering to all products not covered by the WTO-Agreement on Agriculture
(manufacturing products, fuels and mining products, fish and fish products, and forestry
products) targets to further liberalization on these product by both reducing tariff and
non-tariff barriers.
G-20 Presidency
 The G-20 economies consisting of USA, Germany, Argentina, the European Union
Australia, Brazil, China, Indonesia, France, South Africa, South Korea, India, Britain, Italy,
Japan, Canada, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia and Turkey represent approximately 90% of
the World GDP, 80% of the world trade, and two-thirds of the world population.
January 2016 Ministry of Economy 53
Regional Breakdown of Exports
Source: TURKSTAT
* January –November
** Except Lebanon and Kosovo
In January- November 2015, exports to EFTA countries increased by 64%
annually and the EFTA Countries became the fastest growing export destination
of the regions above.
January 2016 Ministry of Economy 54
(Million $) 2013 2014
Change
(%)
% Share
(2014)
2014* 2015*
Change
(%)
% Share
(2014)
EU-28 63,040 68,514 8.7 43.5 63,178 58,633 -7.2 43.8
CIS 16,924 15,616 -7.7 9.9 14,354 9,799 -31.7 9.9
EFTA 1,662 3,795 128.4 2.4 3,708 6,098 64.4 2.6
Economic Cooperation
Organization 11,898 11,717 -1.5 7.4 10,534 8,728 -17.1 7.3
Organization of Islamic Cooperation
49,371 48,625 -1.5 30.9 43,987 39,227 -10.8 30.5
Black Sea Economic
Cooperation 20,368 19,687 -3.3 12.5 18,133 13,422 -26.0 12.6
FTA Countries**
14,942 18,845 26.1 11.2 17,440 18,560 6.4 12.1
OECD 68,684 76,675 11.6 48.6 70,557 69,308 -1.8 48.9
Turkic Republics 6,908 7,108 2.9 4.5 6,470 4,880 -24.6 4.5
General Total 151,803 157,610 3.8 100 144,341 132,194 -8.4 100.0
Trade Representatives Abroad
The Ministry are serving in 110
countries, 154 locations and 4
offices abroad.
January 2016 Ministry of Economy 55
Daimi Temsilci Yardımcılığı
Ticaret Müşavirliği
Ticaret Ataşeliği
İrtibat Büroları
AFRİKA
Kahire
Nairobi
Pretoria
Rabat
Trablus
Tunus
Kazablanka
ASYA
Astana
Aşkabat
Bangkok
Bişkek
Cakarta
Duşanbe
Hanoi
İslamabad
Kabil
Kuala Lumpur
Manila
Pekin
Seul
Singapur
AVRUPA/KAFKASYA
AB
DTÖ
OECD
Atina
Bakü
Belgrad
Berlin
Bern
Bratislava
Brüksel
Budapeşte
Bükreş
Dublin
Helsinki
Kiev
Kişinev
Kopenhag
Lahey
Lizbon
Lefkoşa
Londra
Lubliyana
Madrid
Minsk
Moskova
Oslo
Paris
Podgorica
Prag
Priştine
Roma
Saraybosna
Sofya
Stokholm
Tiflis
Tiran
Üsküp
Varşova
Viyana
Zagreb
Barselona
Batum
Düsseldorf
Hamburg
Hannover
Kazan
Marsilya
Milano
Münih
Novorossisk
Odessa
Rotterdam
Selanik
St.
Petersburg
Stutgart
Birmingham
Krasnodar
Novosibirsk
Yekaterinbur
g
Taşkent
Tokyo
Ulan Bator
Yeni Delhi
Almatı
Guangzhou
Hong Kong
Karaçi
Mumbai
Şangay
Georgetown
Abuja
Addis Ababa
Akra
Cezayir
Dakar
Darüsselam
Hartum
İskenderiye
Buenos Aires
Karakas
Mexico City
Ottava
Santiago
Vaşington
Houston
Los Angeles
AMERİKA
ORTA DOĞU
Abu Dhabi
Amman
Bağdat
Beyrut
Doha
Kuveyt
Manama
Muskat
Riyad
Sana
Şam
Tahran
Tel Aviv
Basra
Cidde
Dubai
Erbil
Halep
Kudüs
Musul
Tebriz
Sidney
Melbourne
AVUSTRALYA
New York
Sao Paulo
Şikago
Toronto
Miami
San Francisco
Seattle
GEORGETOWN
Locations of Trade Representatives
56

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Economic outlook

  • 1. MINISTRY of ECONOMY ECONOMIC OUTLOOK January 2016 Recent Update: 12/26/2015
  • 2. A- MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK…………………………………………………… 3 B- FOREIGN TRADE OUTLOOK…………………………………………………….. 19 1) MERCHANDISE…………………………………………………………... 20 2) SERVICES…………………………………………………………………….. 32 C- INVESTMENTS , FOREIGN CAPITAL and INCENTIVES…………………. 37 D- FREE ZONES in TURKEY…………………………………………………………… 44 E- BILATERAL, REGIONAL, PLURILATERAL and MULTILATERAL TRADE 49 OUTLINE January 2016 Ministry of Economy 2
  • 3. A- MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK January 2016 Ministry of Economy 3
  • 4. Growth Forecasts of International Organizations (%)  In 2014, Turkish economy grew by 2.9%.  According to the IMF, Turkish Economy is expected to grow by 3% in 2015 and 2.9% in 2016 Source: IMF, OECD, WB January 2016 Ministry of Economy 4 Growth Forecast for Selected Countries/Country Groups(%) World Turkey Euro Area US Brazil Russia India China IMF 2015 3,1 3,0 1,5 2,5 -3,8 -3,7 7,3 6,9 2016 3,4 2,9 1,7 2,6 -3,5 -1,0 7,5 6,3 OECD 2015 2,9 3,1 1,5 2,4 -3,1 -4,0 7,2 6,8 2016 3,3 3,4 1,8 2,5 -1,2 -0,4 7,3 6,5 WB 2015 2,4 4,2 1,5 2,5 -3,7 -3,8 7,3 6,9 2016 2,9 3,5 1,7 2,7 -2,5 -0,7 7,8 6,7
  • 5.  According to the IMF estimates, global trade volume of merchandise and services is expected to increase by 3.2% in in 2015 and 4.1% in 2016.  According to the WTO estimates, global trade volume of merchandise and services is expected to increase by 2.8% in 2015 and 3.9% in 2016. Forecasts for Merchandise Trade Growth (%) Source: IMF and WTO January 2016 Ministry of Economy 5 Forecasts for Merchandise Trade Growth(%) World Trade VolumeYears Exports Imports Advanced Economies Emerging Economies Advanced Economies Emerging Economies IMF 2015 2,8 3,5 3,7 1,5 3,2 2016 3,1 4,6 4,0 4,3 4,1 WTO 2015 3,0 2,4 3,1 2,5 2,8 2016 3,9 3,8 3,2 5,2 3,9
  • 6. Top 20 Economies (Current, PPP) Source: IMF  Turkey ranks as the 18th largest economy in the World and 7th in Europe. January 2016 Ministry of Economy 6
  • 7. Economic Targets of 2016-2018 Medium Term Program **Purchasing Power Parity (Medium Term Program, Ministry of Development)  Medium Term Program, which covers 2016-2018 period, aims to increase growth as well as providing its comprehension via structural reforms, while continuing to reduce the current account deficit and inflation gradually. January 2016 Ministry of Economy 7 2015 2016 2017 2018 GDP (Billion TL, Current Prices) 1963 2207 2489 2770 GDP Per Capita ($)** 20.298 21.240 22.460 23.829 Real GDP Growth 4,0 4,5 5,0 5,0 Unemployment Rate(%) 10,2 10,2 9,9 9,6 Tourism Income (Billion $) 27,0 27,0 29,4 31,8 Current Account Balance (Billion $) -31,7 -28,6 -29,3 -29,9 Current Account Balance/GDP(%) -4,4 -3,9 -3,7 -3,5
  • 8. Real GDP Growth of Selected Countries/Country Groups (2014)  Turkish Economy expanded by 4.2% in 2013 and 2.9% in 2014. Source: TURKSTAT, IMF January 2016 Ministry of Economy 8
  • 9. Economic Growth Rates (2002-2015) Source: TURKSTAT  Mean annual growth rate between 2002 and 2014 was 4.7%.  GDP growth for the 1st quarter of 2015 was 2.5%, 3.8% for the 2nd quarter and 4% for the third quarter  Growth rate was 3.4% for the first 9 months of this year. January 2016 Ministry of Economy 9 5.3 9.4 8.4 6.9 4.7 0.7 -4.8 9.2 8.8 2.1 4.2 2.9 2.5 3.8 4.0 -6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015-I 2015-II 2015-III
  • 10. GDP Per Capita Source: TURKSTAT,  Since 2002 GDP per capita has tripled from 3,492 USD to 10,390 USD in 2014. In PPP terms GDP per capita exceeded 19,000 USD in 2014. January 2016 Ministry of Economy 10
  • 11. Capacity Utilization Ratio (%) Source: CBRT  Capacity utilization ratio in january 2016 decreased by 0.9 points compared to that of previous month and realized as 74,9%. January 2016 Ministry of Economy 11
  • 12. Industrial Production Index (2010=100) Source: TURKSTAT  Industrial production index rose by 3,6% year-on-year to 130,0 (2010=100) in October 2015. January 2016 Ministry of Economy 12
  • 13. PMI (Purchasing Manager Index) PMI increased to 52,2 in December 2015, higher than the previous month’s level (50,9). January 2016 Ministry of Economy 13
  • 14. Inflation (Annual Percentage Change)  Inflation rates in December 2015 were 8.8% and 5.71% according to CPI and PPI, respectively. Source: TURKSTAT January 2016 Ministry of Economy 14
  • 15. Unemployment Rates (%) Source: TURKSTAT  In October 2015, unemployment rate was 10.5% . In 2014, it was 9.9%.  Seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in Euro Area was 10.5 % and 9.1 % in (EU28) in October 2015. In terms of unemployment ratio Turkey outperformed 6 EU members according to current data.  After Russia, Germany, England and France, Turkey has the 5th largest labor force among the European countries. (2014, Economist Intelligence Unit) January 2016 Ministry of Economy 15
  • 16. CDS Premiums (January 25th, 2016) Source: Deutsche Bank Research, Bloomberg * Higher CDS premiums indicate higher risk levels. January 2016 Ministry of Economy 16 44 68 105 128 119 166 209 174 286 294 489 374 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 Ireland S.Korea Spain China Italy Hungary Portugal Bulgaria Turkey Croatia Brazil Russia
  • 17. Central Government Budget Deficit/ GDP (%)  Central government budget deficit/GDP ratio in 2013 was 1.2% and Turkey complied with the Maastricht criteria of 3%. Turkey also outperformed 22 EU Countries. For the year 2014, the same ratio was 1.3%.  In January-December 2015 period, central government budget deficit was 22,6 billion TL compared to 23,3 billion TL deficit in the same period of 2014. Source: Eurostat, TUİK * 2014 January 2016 Ministry of Economy 17
  • 18. Government Debt / GDP (%)  Debt/GDP ratio of Turkey was 36.2% in 2013 indicating a level below the Maastricht Criterion (60%). Turkey also outperformed 25 EU countries.  In 2014, the ratio was realized at 33.5% Source: Eurostat *2014 January 2016 Ministry of Economy 18
  • 19. B- FOREIGN TRADE OUTLOOK January 2016 Ministry of Economy 19
  • 20. I) MERCHANDISE January 2016 Ministry of Economy 20
  • 21. Targets in Merchandise Trade Turkish Statistical Institute *Forecast: Medium Term Programme, Ministry of Development, 2016-2018) **The Exports Strategy of Turkey For 2023 January 2016 Ministry of Economy 21 (Billion $) 2014 2015* 2016* 2017* 2018* 2023** Exports 157.6 143.9 155.5 175.8 201.4 500 Imports 242.2 207.1 210.7 243.1 273.2 625 Volume of trade 399.8 351.0 366.2 418.9 474.6 1125 Balance of trade -84.5 -63.1 -55.2 -67.2 -71.8 -125 Exports/Imports (%) 65.1 69.5 73.8 72.3 73.7 80
  • 22. Turkey's Share in Global Merchandise Exports (%)  Turkey’s share in global merchandise exports was %0.83 in 2014. January 2016 Ministry of Economy 22
  • 23. Turkey's Share in Global Merchandise Imports (%)  Turkey’s share in global merchandise imports was %1.27 in 2014. January 2016 Ministry of Economy 23
  • 24. Foreign Trade Developments In first eleven months of 2015, compared to the same period of 2014, exports decreased by 8.4% and imports decreased by 14,1%. Source: Ministry of Economy * Energy corresponds to Chapter 27. January 2016 Ministry of Economy 24 2013 2014 2014/(JAN-NOV) 2015/(JAN - NOV) Change (%) 2014/2015 Export 151.8 157.6 144.3 132.2 -8.4 Energy Export* 6.7 6.1 5.7 4.2 -27.1 Gold Export 3.3 3.2 3.2 7.4 132.2 Import 251.7 242.2 220.4 189.2 -14.1 Energy Import* 55.9 54.9 50.5 34.8 -31.0 Gold Import 15.1 7.1 6.5 3.1 -52.2 Foreign Trade Volume 403.5 399.8 364.7 321.4 -11.9 Foreign Trade Balance -99.9 -84.6 -76.0 -57.0 -25.0 Balance excl. Energy -50.7 -35.8 -31.3 -26.4 -15.8 Export/Import (%) 60.3 65.1 65.5 69.9 6.7 Annual (Billion $) Periodic (Billion Dollar)
  • 25. Monthly Exports and Imports In November, 2015 compared to the same month of 2014, exports have decreased by 10.2% and realized as 11.7 billion dollars and imports have decreased by 25.3% down to the level of 15.9 billion dollars. January 2016 Ministry of Economy 25
  • 26. Distribution of Foreign Trade in Broad Economic Categories January 2016 Ministry of Economy 26 EXPORT IMPORT Source: TURKSTAT EXPORT (Milyon $) 2014 2015 2014 2015 Change (%) Share % Investment Goods 1,288 1,417 10.0 14,644 13,981 -4.5 10.6 Intermediate Goods 5,692 5,000 -12.2 69,350 63,577 -8.3 48.1 Consumption Goods 6,001 5,284 -11.9 59,333 53,965 -9.0 40.8 Others 86 37 -57.0 1,013 671 -33.8 0.5 TOTAL 13,067 11,738 -10.2 144,340 132,194 -8.4 100 November Change (%) January-November İMPORT (Milyon $) 2014 2015 2014 2015 Change (%) Share % Investment Goods 3,033 2,688 -11.4 32,185 31,622 -1.7 16.7 Intermediate Goods 15,908 10,980 -31.0 161,654 131,165 -18.9 69.3 Consumption Goods 2,423 2,270 -6.3 26,146 26,034 -0.4 13.8 Others 21 36 71.4 404 399 -1.2 0.2 TOTAL 21,385 15,974 -25.3 220,389 189,220 -14.1 100 November Change (%) January-November
  • 27. Main Export Items January 2016 Ministry of Economy 27 * Percent change is related to the annual change in exports in 2015. Source: TURKSTAT Million Dollar CHANGE % * Rank Code Periodic (January-November) 2014 2015 2014 2015 2014 2015 2014/2015 1 87 VEHICLE OTHER THANRAILWAYOR TRAMWAY 16,544 15,843 13,920 15,899 2,624 -56 -4.2 2 84 BOILERS, MACHINERYAND MECHANICAL APPLIANCES 12,435 11,255 25,236 23,048 -12,801 -11,794 -9.5 3 71 PEARLS, PRECIOUS STONES, PRECIOUS METALS 7,227 10,932 7,417 3,807 -189 7,125 51.3 4 61 KNITTED AND CROCHETED GOODS AND ARTICLES THEREOF 9,301 8,208 920 799 8,381 7,409 -11.7 5 85 ELECTRICAL MACHINERYAND EQUIPMENT, PARTS THEREOF 8,775 7,543 16,242 15,995 -7,467 -8,452 -14.0 6 72 IRONAND STEEL 8,441 6,068 16,152 13,651 -7,710 -7,582 -28.1 7 62 NONKNITTED AND CROCHETED GOODS AND ARTICLES THEREOF 5,773 5,439 1,758 1,672 4,015 3,767 -5.8 8 73 ARTICLES OF IRONAND STEEL 5,773 5,034 2,395 2,468 3,378 2,566 -12.8 9 39 PLASTIC AND ARTICLES THEREOF 5,617 4,941 13,036 11,233 -7,419 -6,292 -12.0 10 27 MINERAL FUELS AND MINERALS OILS 5,714 4,164 50,477 34,835 -44,763 -30,671 -27.1 85,601 79,428 147,553 123,406 -61,952 -43,978 -7.2 144,341 132,194 220,389 189,219 -76,048 -57,025 -8.4 EXPORTS IMPORTS BALANCE List Total Total
  • 28. Main Import Items January 2016 Ministry of Economy 28 * Percent change is related to the annual change in imports in 2015. Source: TURKSTAT Million Dollar CHANGE % * Rank Code Periodic (January-November) 2014 2015 2014 2015 2014 2015 2014/2015 1 27 MINERAL FUELS AND MINERALS OILS 50,699 34,835 5,714 4,164 -44,985 -30,671 -31.3 2 84 BOILERS,MACHINERYAND MECHANICAL APPLIANCES,PARTS THEREOF 27,025 23,048 12,435 11,255 -14,590 -11,793 -14.7 3 85 ELECTRICAL MACHINERYAND EQUIPMENT,PARTS THEREOF 16,112 15,995 8,775 7,543 -7,337 -8,452 -0.7 4 87 VEHICLE OTHER THANRAILWAYOR TRAMWAYROLLING-STOCK,PARTS THEREOF 15,143 15,899 16,544 15,843 1,401 -56 5.0 5 72 İRONAND STEEL 16,887 13,651 8,441 6,068 -8,446 -7,583 -19.2 6 39 PLASTIC AND ARTICLES THEREOF 12,785 11,233 5,617 4,941 -7,168 -6,292 -12.1 7 29 ORGANIC CHEMICALS 4,869 4,339 498 430 -4,371 -3,909 -10.9 8 90 OPTICAL,PHOTOGRAPHIC,CINEMATOGRAPHIC,MEASURING CHECKING,PRECISION 4,102 4,150 631 657 -3,471 -3,493 1.2 9 30 PHARMACEUTICAL PRODUCTS 3,783 3,856 723 785 -3,060 -3,071 1.9 10 71 PRECİOUS STONES,PRECİOUS METALS 14,757 3,807 7,227 10,932 -7,530 7,125 -74.2 166,162 130,812 66,605 62,618 -99,557 -68,194 -21.3 220,389 189,219 144,341 132,194 -76,048 -57,025 -14.1 IMPORT EXPORT BALANCE ListTotal Total
  • 29. Main Export Partners (Share,%) Main Trade Partners (January –November 2015) Main Import Partners (Share,%) Source: TURKSTAT January 2016 Ministry of Economy 29 9.3 7.4 6.1 4.7 4.4 Germany United Kingdom Iraq Italy USA 12 10.2 9.9 5.4 5.1 China Germany Russia Italy USA
  • 30. Exports by Regions Source: TURKSTAT January 2016 Ministry of Economy 30 2014 2015 % Share % Chg. 2014 2015 % Share % Chg. EU (28) 5,720 5,631 48.0 -1.5 63,178 58,633 44.4 -7.2 FREE ZONES IN TURKEY 182 149 1.3 -18.1 2,074 1,741 1.3 -16.1 OTHER EUROPE 1,152 855 7.3 -25.8 14,243 13,428 10.2 -5.7 AFRİCA 1,056 1,059 9.0 0.3 12,517 11,274 8.5 -9.9 North Africa 748 712 6.1 -4.8 8,887 7,714 5.8 -13.2 Other Africa 308 347 3.0 12.7 3,631 3,560 2.7 -2.0 AMERICA 852 753 6.4 -11.6 9,083 8,414 6.4 -7.4 North America 653 559 4.8 -14.4 6,502 6,425 4.9 -1.2 Central America and Caraips 58 117 1.0 101.3 847 794 0.6 -6.3 South America 140 77 0.7 -45.0 1,734 1,195 0.9 -31.1 ASIA 4,056 3,240 27.6 -20.1 42,488 38,045 28.8 -10.5 Near and Middle East 3,099 2,418 20.6 -22.0 31,908 28,602 21.6 -10.4 Other Asia 958 822 7.0 -14.2 10,580 9,443 7.1 -10.7 AUSTRALIA and NEW ZEALAND 44 41 0.4 -5.2 543 561 0.4 3.4 OTHER COUNTRIES 6 9 0.1 50.1 216 99 0.1 -54.0 Total 13,067 11,738 100 -10.2 144,341 132,194 100 -8.4 EXPORT (Million $) November January-November
  • 31. Imports by Regions Source: TURKSTAT January 2016 Ministry of Economy 31 2014 2015 % Share % Chg. 2014 2015 % Share % Chg. EU(28) 7,426 6,395 40.0 -13.9 80,647 71,588 37.8 -11.2 FREE ZONES IN TURKEY 98 95 0.6 -3.7 1,165 1,128 0.6 -3.1 OTHER EUROPE 3,675 1,911 12.0 -48.0 33,283 25,771 13.6 -22.6 AFRİCA 657 380 2.4 -42.1 5,363 4,654 2.5 -13.2 North Africa 272 209 1.3 -23.0 3,127 2,733 1.4 -12.6 Other Africa 385 171 1.1 -55.6 2,236 1,921 1.0 -14.1 AMERICA 1,647 1,233 7.7 -25.1 17,168 15,323 8.1 -10.7 North America 1,168 850 5.3 -27.2 12,593 11,026 5.8 -12.4 Central America and Caraips 98 70 0.4 -28.5 1,019 962 0.5 -5.6 South America 381 313 2.0 -17.9 3,555 3,335 1.8 -6.2 ASIA 6,428 5,149 32.2 -19.9 69,864 61,203 32.3 -12.4 Near and Middle East 1,938 987 6.2 -49.1 18,887 12,485 6.6 -33.9 Other Asia 4,489 4,162 26.1 -7.3 50,978 48,718 25.7 -4.4 AUSTRALIA and NEW ZEALAND 92 78 0.5 -15.8 479 560 0.3 16.9 OTHER COUNTRIES 1,363 733 4.6 -46.2 12,421 8,994 4.8 -27.6 Total 21,385 15,974 100 -25.3 220,389 189,219 100 -14.1 (Million $) November January-November
  • 32. 2) SERVICES January 2016 Ministry of Economy 32
  • 33. Targets in Services January 2016 Ministry of Economy 33
  • 34. Turkey's Share in Global Services Exports (%) Source: WTO  Turkey’s share in global exports of services was 1.03% in 2014. January 2016 Ministry of Economy 34
  • 35. Turkey's Share in Global Services Imports (%) Source: WTO  Turkey’s share in global imports of services was 0.49% in 2014. January 2016 Ministry of Economy 35
  • 36. Contracting Services Abroad  42 out of the world’s top 250 contracting companies are Turkish.  Turkey ranks as the 2nd country (following China) in terms of the number of top contracting companies. Contributions to the overall economic performance: Creating foreign exchange inflow, exports, employment, technology transfer; adding to the machinery stock, facilitating internationalization. Regional Breakdown of Projects(%) Years Projects Countries Project Volume (Million $) Cum. Project Volume (Million $) Avr. Project Volume (Million $) 1971-2001 2256 48 46,584 46,584 21 2002 208 34 4,127 50,711 20 2003 343 35 6,401 57,112 19 2004 476 36 8,460 65,573 18 2005 451 33 13,245 78,818 29 2006 575 35 22,205 101,023 39 2007 610 45 25,122 126,145 41 2008 657 39 23,874 150,019 36 2009 512 45 20,189 170,207 39 2010 624 50 23,446 193,653 38 2011 552 51 23,027 216,680 42 2012 533 48 29,741 246,421 56 2013 416 48 29,977 276,398 73 2014 324 46 26,824 303,222 83 2015 156 42 19,366 322,588 124 Last updated on December 2015 January 2016 Ministry of Economy 36
  • 37. C- INVESTMENTS, FOREIGN CAPITAL and INCENTIVES January 2016 Ministry of Economy 37
  • 38. Foreign Direct Investment  FDI reached 148.75 billion USD in 2003-2014 period, while it was 14.6 billion USD in 1984-2002 period.  FDI increased 23.2 % in 2015 January-November with respect to previous period and reached 14.1 billion USD. Source: CBRT January 2016 Ministry of Economy 38
  • 39. Foreign Direct Investment Abroad  Turkish citizens’ direct investments abroad reached 33 billion USD from 2003 to date.  Outward FDI, for the period 2015 January-November and reached 4.9 billion USD. Source: CBRT January 2016 Ministry of Economy 39
  • 40. The Sectoral Breakdown of Foreign Investments Source: CBRT *January-November January 2016 Ministry of Economy 40 (Million $) 2013 2014 2014* 2015* AGRICULTURE 47 61 57 46 INDUSTRIAL SECTORS 4,819 4,844 4,346 5,132 Mining and Quarrying 242 364 364 194 Manufacturing 2,207 2,894 2,646 3,601 Production and Distribution of Electricity & Gas 2,334 1,583 1,333 1,335 SERVICES SECTOR 5,000 3,979 3,370 4,794 TOTAL 9,866 8,884 7,773 9,972
  • 41. Breakdown of Foreign Investments by Country *January-November Source: CBRT January 2016 Ministry of Economy 41 2013 2014* 2015* 1 Spain 506 57 2,154 2 USA 326 175 1,479 3 Netherlands 918 1,949 1,024 4 Russia 875 729 757 5 Belgium 60 39 733 6 England 300 1,033 454 7 China 9 28 446 8 Qatar 469 8 350 9 Luxembourg 278 522 337 10 Malaysia 12 0 327 11 Germany 1,968 624 324 12 Japan 439 211 298 13 Azerbaijan 803 716 294 14 Swiss 204 152 161 15 France 217 97 158 16 Italy 146 473 150 17 Greece 68 92 89 18 United Arab Emirates 176 98 67 19 South Korea 61 42 61 20 Austria 647 48 54 LIST TOTAL 8,482 7,093 9,717 TOTAL 9,866 7,773 9,972 Million Dolar
  • 42. Investment Incentive System The current investment incentive system of Turkey is structured in four sub systems:  General Investment Incentive System  Regional Investment Incentive System  Investment Incentive System for Big Scale Projects  Incentive System for Strategic Investments January 2016 Ministry of Economy 42
  • 43. Investment Incentives *January – November Source: General Directorate of Incentive Implementation and Foreign Investment January 2016 Ministry of Economy 43 Certificates Issued Amount of Fixed Investment (Million TL) Potential Employment (People) Total Total Total 2013 4,856 96,121 194,385 2014 4,033 64,022 144,471 2015* 3,959 90,655 128,430 Region 1 Region 2 Region 3 Region 4 Region 5 Region 6 Various TOTAL 2013 1,753 797 686 505 470 619 26 4,856 2014 1,446 707 591 447 365 459 17 4,033 2015* 1,303 788 579 426 417 436 10 3,959 CERTIFICATESISSUED
  • 44. D - FREE ZONES IN TURKEY January 2016 Ministry of Economy 44
  • 45.  Tax advantages for manufacturers  Medium-and long-term investment view  Availability to transfer profits  Commercial facilities  Exemption from customs duties  Acquisition of the documents relating to the free movement of goods under the scope of Customs Union with the EU  Principle of equality  No time restrictions  Flexibility to adjust to the market needs and conditions  Reliable inflation accounting  Market access to domestic and foreign markets  Reduced bureaucratic procedures and dynamic business management  Strategic advantages  Affordable and compatible infrastructure  Supply chain opportunities The Advantages of Free Zones for Users January 2016 Ministry of Economy 45
  • 46. Free Zones in Turkey  61,505 people have been employed in Free Zones of Turkey in 2014. January 2016 Ministry of Economy 46
  • 47. Trade Flows of Free Zones  In 2014, total trade volume of the Free Zones reached 22.4 billion dollars, decreasing 3.5% annually. Source: General Directorate of Free Zones, Foreign Investments and Services 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 3,195 2,177 2,295 2,668 2,971 2,887 2,732 5,874 4,913 4,361 6,924 7,071 7,701 7,958 8,248 5,493 6,625 7,253 7,257 7,490 7,059 7,262 5,173 5,291 5,801 5,754 5,162 4,683 24,579 17,756 18,572 22,646 23,053 23,240 22,432TOTAL TRADE VOLUME Million Dollar From Domestic Market to Free Zones From Free Zones to Abroad From Abroad to Free Zones From Free Zones to Domestic Markets January 2016 Ministry of Economy 47
  • 48. Concentration in Free Zones by Industries Source: General Directorate of Free Zones, Foreign Investments and Services Istanbul Ataturk Airport FZ Services and Software Antalya FZ Yacht-building, Medical Equipment Kocaeli FZ Ship-building Avrupa FZ Ready-Wear Mersin FZ Ready-Wear Bursa FZ Automotive sub-industries Izmir FZ Leather TUBITAK-MAMFZ R&D Activities Adana-Yumurtalik FZ Ship Repair and Maintenance January 2016 Ministry of Economy 48
  • 49. E - BILATERAL, REGIONAL, PLURILATERAL and MULTILATERAL TRADE January 2016 Ministry of Economy 49
  • 50. Trade Relationships of Turkey with Others Bilateral Trade Relationships of Turkey Europe, Asia-Pacific, Eurasia, Middle East and North Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa, Americas Regional and Multiple Trade Relationships of Turkey EU, ECO, D8, BSEC, OIC, COMCEC Multilateral Trade Relationships of Turkey WTO, OECD, G20 January 2016 Ministry of Economy 50
  • 51. 1. EFTA (Norway, Switzerland, Iceland, Liechtenstein) 2. Israel 3. Macedonia 4. Bosnia and Herzegovina 5. Palestine 6. Tunisia 7. Morocco 8. Syria (**) 9. Egypt 10. Albania (*) Agreements that are in the approval process (**) Pending FTA Countries 11. Georgia 12. Montenegro 13. Serbia 14. Chile 15. Jordan 16. South Korea 17. Mauritius 18. Lebanon* 19. Kosovo* 20.Malaysia 21. Moldova* 22. Faroe Islands* 23. Singapore January 2016 Ministry of Economy 51
  • 52. 1. Ghana* 2. Ukraine 3. Colombia 4. Ecuador 5. Democratic Republic of the Congo 6. Cameroon 7. Seychelles FTA Countries(On-going Negotiations) 8. Gulf Cooperation Council 9. Libya 10. MERCOSUR 11. Japan 12. Peru 13. Mexico * Negotiations completed. January 2016 Ministry of Economy 52
  • 53. Multilateral Trade Relationships Trade in Services Aggrement (TISA)  Due to the stumble of Doha Development Round and ambitious targets of top services exporters, TISA negotiations which continue between countries, who makes up 70% of total world services, in order to increase liberalisation in services trade while Turkey is included in the negotiations. Non Agricultural Market Access (NAMA)  NAMA refering to all products not covered by the WTO-Agreement on Agriculture (manufacturing products, fuels and mining products, fish and fish products, and forestry products) targets to further liberalization on these product by both reducing tariff and non-tariff barriers. G-20 Presidency  The G-20 economies consisting of USA, Germany, Argentina, the European Union Australia, Brazil, China, Indonesia, France, South Africa, South Korea, India, Britain, Italy, Japan, Canada, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia and Turkey represent approximately 90% of the World GDP, 80% of the world trade, and two-thirds of the world population. January 2016 Ministry of Economy 53
  • 54. Regional Breakdown of Exports Source: TURKSTAT * January –November ** Except Lebanon and Kosovo In January- November 2015, exports to EFTA countries increased by 64% annually and the EFTA Countries became the fastest growing export destination of the regions above. January 2016 Ministry of Economy 54 (Million $) 2013 2014 Change (%) % Share (2014) 2014* 2015* Change (%) % Share (2014) EU-28 63,040 68,514 8.7 43.5 63,178 58,633 -7.2 43.8 CIS 16,924 15,616 -7.7 9.9 14,354 9,799 -31.7 9.9 EFTA 1,662 3,795 128.4 2.4 3,708 6,098 64.4 2.6 Economic Cooperation Organization 11,898 11,717 -1.5 7.4 10,534 8,728 -17.1 7.3 Organization of Islamic Cooperation 49,371 48,625 -1.5 30.9 43,987 39,227 -10.8 30.5 Black Sea Economic Cooperation 20,368 19,687 -3.3 12.5 18,133 13,422 -26.0 12.6 FTA Countries** 14,942 18,845 26.1 11.2 17,440 18,560 6.4 12.1 OECD 68,684 76,675 11.6 48.6 70,557 69,308 -1.8 48.9 Turkic Republics 6,908 7,108 2.9 4.5 6,470 4,880 -24.6 4.5 General Total 151,803 157,610 3.8 100 144,341 132,194 -8.4 100.0
  • 55. Trade Representatives Abroad The Ministry are serving in 110 countries, 154 locations and 4 offices abroad. January 2016 Ministry of Economy 55
  • 56. Daimi Temsilci Yardımcılığı Ticaret Müşavirliği Ticaret Ataşeliği İrtibat Büroları AFRİKA Kahire Nairobi Pretoria Rabat Trablus Tunus Kazablanka ASYA Astana Aşkabat Bangkok Bişkek Cakarta Duşanbe Hanoi İslamabad Kabil Kuala Lumpur Manila Pekin Seul Singapur AVRUPA/KAFKASYA AB DTÖ OECD Atina Bakü Belgrad Berlin Bern Bratislava Brüksel Budapeşte Bükreş Dublin Helsinki Kiev Kişinev Kopenhag Lahey Lizbon Lefkoşa Londra Lubliyana Madrid Minsk Moskova Oslo Paris Podgorica Prag Priştine Roma Saraybosna Sofya Stokholm Tiflis Tiran Üsküp Varşova Viyana Zagreb Barselona Batum Düsseldorf Hamburg Hannover Kazan Marsilya Milano Münih Novorossisk Odessa Rotterdam Selanik St. Petersburg Stutgart Birmingham Krasnodar Novosibirsk Yekaterinbur g Taşkent Tokyo Ulan Bator Yeni Delhi Almatı Guangzhou Hong Kong Karaçi Mumbai Şangay Georgetown Abuja Addis Ababa Akra Cezayir Dakar Darüsselam Hartum İskenderiye Buenos Aires Karakas Mexico City Ottava Santiago Vaşington Houston Los Angeles AMERİKA ORTA DOĞU Abu Dhabi Amman Bağdat Beyrut Doha Kuveyt Manama Muskat Riyad Sana Şam Tahran Tel Aviv Basra Cidde Dubai Erbil Halep Kudüs Musul Tebriz Sidney Melbourne AVUSTRALYA New York Sao Paulo Şikago Toronto Miami San Francisco Seattle GEORGETOWN Locations of Trade Representatives 56