Earthquake Risk of Mongolia

1. Meeting in commemoration of the "National day to promote public awareness of disaster risk reduction“
BCM Risk Working Group, The Business Council of Mongolia
March 30, 2017
American Cultural Center, Ulanbaatar
"Earthquake risk of Mongolia"
BATTULGA, Sukhee
Cooperative Center for RESILIENCE Research (NUM and Nagoya Univ. Japan)

2. Mogod Earthquake:
1957
Earthquake
Bulgan province, Mogod soum
60
Year to create awareness of
earthquake risk and disaster risk
reduction
2017

3. 2017.07.05 ӨЛГИЙ ХОТ, БАЯН-ӨЛГИЙ АЙМАГ, МОНГОЛ
164 families suffered.
110 buildings damaged.
1250 people were left homeless.

4. 2016.07.28
Flood risk trends:
(Average occurrence per 5 years)
Years 2001-2005: 12
Years 2006-2010: 17
Years 2011-2015: 20+-2
Years 2016-2020: 25+-2
D. Serjmyadag, 2012

5. Flood due to
storm...
Flood due to
mountain snow
melting...
Flash flood...
Зургийг цахим хуудаснаас авав.

6. “SUFFOCATING...”

8. “ZUD”
DESERTIFICATION
HOW IS OUR “CAPACITY TO OVERCOME DISASTERS” ?

9. Kobe Earthquake
(阪神淡路大震災), 1995.1.17

10. City of Kobe,
Hyogo prefecture, JAPAN

11. CITY OF KOBE,
HYOGO PREFECTURE,
JAPAN

12. Tōhoku earthquake, Northeast Japan, 2011.3.11
三十災害（地震・津波・原発）

13. TSUNAMI
21000
Human loss
61000
Displaced citizens
(Japanese embassy)

14. KUMAMOTO, КYUSHU, JAPAN
熊本、九州、日本

16. KUMAMOTO, КYUSHU, JAPAN
熊本、九州、日本

17. РЭЦҮМЭЙКАН ИХ СУРГУУЛЬ,
КЁОТО, ЯПОН
НАГОЯ ИХ СУРГУУЛЬ,
НАГОЯ, АЙЧИ МУЖ, ЯПОН

18. 天譴論（てんけんろん）
Tengri, Kami’s punishment
運命論（うんめいろん）
Human “destiny”
精神論（せいしんろん）
Strength, grit
「我慢する」
「耐える」
「頑張る」
「泣かない」
Accept
Nature’s power
2011
Great East Japan Earthquake
and Tsunami
“force majeure”
“staying positive”
“trying to forget”
“be ready”...
Natural disaster: “CHALLENGE”

22. A History Of Large Earthquakes
Data: USGS PAGERCAT 1900-2008, USGS-NEIC & gCMT 2008-present
Figure courtesy of Charles Ammon, after Ammon et al., SRL, 2010
The 03/11/2011 Mw9.0 Tohoku, Japan Earthquake

23. Northern Sumatra,
west coast, 2004, 9,1 М
9.1 Magnitude earthquake which occurred
under ocean near Sumatran west coast affected
14 countries such as Sumatra, Indonesia, India,
Thailand, Somali, Maldives and heaviest
damage was caused in Indonesia. 168,000
Indonesians died and total human loss was
over 240,000.
Northern Sumatra, 2005,
8,6 М
Just after 2 months, another earthquake with
8,6 Magnitude hit the area again.
1300 people died and
5000 were injured.
news.xopom.com/57565/ © XopoM News

24. Kamchatka Peninsula,
Russia, 1952,
9,0 М
Maule coast, Chile,
2010, 8,8 М
530 people died
800,000 were left homeless.
In total 1,8 million people were affected.
news.xopom.com/57565/ © XopoM News

25. Assam, Tibet
1950, 8,6 М
1600 people died,
70 villages were wiped out.
Epicenter was in Tibet and the damages
reached many provinces of China, heaviest
damage done in Sichuan.
news.xopom.com/57565/ © XopoM News
Alaska, Prince William
Sound,
1964, 9,2 М
Landslide caused by the earthquake raised
the islands up 11 meters and resulted in
Tsunamis reaching 70 meters in height.
In total 130 people died . 320 million USD
property damage was recorded.

26. Kantо, Japan
(関東大震災),
1923.09.01
Ecuadorian Coast,
1906, 8,8 М
Almost 100 years ago, an earthquake
occurring near Columbia and
Ecuadorian coast caused 1500
deaths and injured over
10,000 people.
news.xopom.com/57565/
© XopoM News

27. Natural disaster & disaster research:
1917
Canada, Nova Scotia Harbour, S.H.Prince ammunitions explosion disaster case study.
1937
Kentucky, US, Roosevelt flood.
1940’s
Research during World War II
1950
Chicago University’s National Opinion Research Center/ NORC
40 years-long study on Natural disaster affected communities and groups
1952 “Community on Disaster Study” (1957, “Disaster Research Group)
1963 Ohio State University, “Disaster Research Center (DRC)
1972 DRC of USA, Japanese (安部北夫 etc) joint international seminar.....
Late 1950’s...
“Individual ” “Team”

28. 2015.10.3 15:30
20 km from UB, 4,4 magnitude
Khustai: 30-150 кm southwest
Emeelt: 18 кm southwest
Gunj: 5 кm northeast
3 active
faults near
UB 2016, Research Institute of Astronomy
and Geophysics by Mongolian
Academy of Sciences

29. Magnitude
0.1-5.2
10849 times

30. Figure 1. Tectonic setting of Mongolia, and Ulaanbaatar, within the
wider India-Eurasia collision zone (from Vergnolle, et al., 2007).
Green circles show locations for the 1905, 1931, and 1957
earthquakes.
Source: Research Institute of Astronomy and Geophysics
Total area
55.4 % / 7-8
magnitude

31. Earthquake Geology of the
Bulnay Fault (Mongolia)
by M. Rizza,
2015
“World’s longest active fault” –Bulnay fault
300 km

32. A great earthquake of Gobi-Altay took place at
1957-12-04, 03:37 UTC with magnitude 8,1.
1905
Khuvsgul,
Mountain range of
Tsetserlegt Khul
Azarga =
8,4 magnitude=
11-12 Mercalli
scale=130 km
Khan Khokhii
Mountain= within 14
days =350 km
1931
Mongolian Altai =10-
11 Mercalli scale
1957
Gobi-Altai=
270 km=
Ikh Bogd Mountain
Vertical 12 m,
Horizontal 84 m
canyon

34. “Монгол улсын эрсдэлийн тойм 2016”,
Мандал даатгал, Эрсдэлийн даатгалын Форум

35. “Монгол улсын хөгжлийн урт хугацааны бодлого 2015-2040” (төсөл)
Монгол улсын Их хурал, Үндэсний хөгжлийн хүрээлэн, 2015, М.Алтанбагана, 2014

36. С.Чулуун, 2013, Уур амьсгалд зохицсон хөгжлийн талаархи бодлогын зөвлөмж,
Баянхонгор, Өвөрхангай аймагт хийсэн судалгаа

37. “Sendai Framework 2015-2030”
“THE PROJECT FOR STRENGTHENING THE NATIONAL
CAPACITY OF EARTHQUAKE DISASTER PROTECTION AND
PREVENTION IN MONGOLIA 2016”

38. In the first 10 months of 2016, 1260 tremors were recorded
(Source: Research Institute of Astronomy and Geophysics)

39. ：Ger district in 1975 ：Buildings in 1975
：Ger district in 2003 : : Buildings in 2003
：Ger district in 2014 ：Buildings in 2014
Matsumiya, 2015

40. “Long-term strategy of Mongolian development 2015-2040” (project)
State Great Hural , Institute of National Strategy, 2015
Migration of citizens

41. Brick buildings 61%
Block buildings 18%
Steel concrete buildings 16%
Wooden buildings 2%
Steel buildings 2%
ULAANBAATAR
1960/1990 brick building resistance:
65% / 129%
1980/1990 karkaz building resistance:
50% / 78%
Damage to buildings:
683/2174
Human risk:
2441/8068
Human risk with Gers and
private homes taken into
account:
3700/12000

43. Sustainability
Resilience
UNISDR Аюулгүй, гамшигт тэсвэртэй
хөгжих чадавхтай хотыг хэрхэн бий
болгох вэ? 2012

44. Т

45. Why could we not consider having
URBANIZATION with NOMADIC STYLE ?.......

46. 285,000 people would be gathered at 47
temporary shelters, and relocated to 24
locations in 6 zones.
Images obtained from web.
DISASTERS
HAVE
STRUCK
BEFORE.
HUMANS
WERE
ALWAYS
THERE.
CAN’T
ESCAPE
DISASTERS...

47. • Mindset, capacity, immunity
• Traditional wisdom, structure
• Risk and disaster education
• Information
• Planning
• Coordination
• Local know-how
• Volunteerism
• Cooperation
• Advantages maximized...
• Realizes afterwards...
• Forgetful...
IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT :
BUT:

48. CITIZENS
Government
Private
sector
NGOs
Cooperation
SEE THE LARGE PICTURE
REFRESH MEMORIES
DO NOT FORGET
RESOLVE ON OWN

49. Field work, 2016/08 Mogod sum, Bulgan aimag
Implementation of campaign for earthquake preparedness
in 2017
(60th Anniversary of Mogod Earthquake)
utilizing the findings of research and study by
multidisciplinary professionals
(Plan)
・ Continuation of research and study in Mogod
・ Implementation of enhancing resilience in Mongolia by
interdisciplinary activities of the Center
・ Building long-term vision in society in cooperation with
researchers, citizens, students and administrative agencies
・ Development of young researchers