Presented by Rory Hearne,Senior Policy Analyst at Think-tank for Action on Social Change, at the Housing Emergency Conference at Liberty Hall on October 3rd, hosted by Housing Action Now.

1. What role for housing in a Republic? What
strategy for housing policy?
Q: Is/should housing be provided as Human
right, need, public good or financial/speculative
asset?

2. Repossession a trickle compared to the flood ofRepossession a trickle compared to the flood of
people about to lose their homespeople about to lose their homes
• Approx. 350 PDH repossessed in first half 2015
• But 50,000 PDH legal repossession notices
issued
• Full court proceedings to repossess homes
initiated in 23,751 cases
• 18,000 BTL issued with repossession letters
and 8,618 with court proceedings

3. This IS a National Emergency!
• 100,000 on housing waiting list (& homeless)
• 79,788 households in receipt of rent supplement
(40,000) have to top up
• 30,000 RAS (35% total private tenancies)
• 100,000 in mortgage arrears
• 10,000s in poor quality local authority
accommodation & private (dampness etc)
• Hidden homeless/rental distress/mortgage distress
• Well in excess of 300,000 households (over half a
million people) in serious housing distress

5. • “Direct investment in real estate is “almost back at the pre-crisis level” and increasingly the
impetus is attributable to sovereign wealth fund and institutional capital, much of it from
Asia.
• The market is awash with capital surging into Europe from around the world.
• The wave of capital rich investors entering European real estate markets is savvy and
sophisticated. Their need to preserve and create new wealth will, for some, see a move away
from core markets where many feel there is little value to be gained and into assets,
developments and cities that give them the opportunity to achieve better returns.”

6. Speaking about real estate investment in Dublin, Enda
Faughnan, Real Estate Leader, PwC Ireland, said:
“There has been heightened interest in
Dublin as a property investment centre,
particularly from foreign investors. There is
still a lot of supply to come onto the market
which will appeal to a wide range of buyers.”
“Though office rents and values are
recovering strongly, they still have some
way to go before they regain their pre-crisis
peak”
(Don’t expect rent rises to stop – Is this why gov reluctant
to introduce rent regulation)

7. If only people in housing distress
were banks…….

9. Why this crisis?
•Housing & property important area for economic growth/Irish
business ‘entrepreneurs’ - capital/wealth/
accumulation/investment 1980s
•‘housing as an investment or asset ‘housing policy
•Close (corrupt?) relationship between politics/power and
developers/builders/financiers (banks)
•Social/public housing supposed to be a ‘failure’
•Neoliberal approach
•Part of global deregulation of finance – financialisation &
neoliberalisation
•Global asset bubbles –investment and wealth inequality

11. Household debt
Percentage of Gross Disposable Income

12. Neoliberalism in response to crisis: socialism for property
finance and wealth – debt for the majority
•Crash – losses of developers and banks put on to taxpayers/society –
Accumulation through & displacement of crisis (Harvey) –
•bank bailouts & NAMA –saving Eurozone & ECB - vs austerity for the people
- – crisis displaced from banks to homeowners and renters -
•Injustice of debt: the Irish people get national debt and mortgage arrears :
socialisation of financial crisis: of costs of speculative investment – no moral
hazard for investors/speculators
•NAMA: 12 debtors - debts of €1 billion each - 133 between €110m & €999m
•"Mr Noonan replied there was nothing unusual about significant write-
offs: “If you look at the billions that were involved in Nama and the billions
that were involved in all the banks, the way of restructuring was write offs
so there is nothing unusual about huge write offs, massive write offs..”"....
•Noonan has consistently ruled out write offs for ordinary people or looking
for right offs on national debt

14. National Debt Interest
€m As a % of GNP As % of
Exchequer Tax
Revenue
2014 7,470 4.6% 18.1%
2013 7,324 4.8% 19.4%
2012 5,679 4.0% 15.5%
2011 4,548 3.2% 13.4%
2010 3,492 2.5% 11.0%
2009 2,535 1.8% 7.7%
2008 1,544 1.0% 3.8%
2007 1,619 1.0% 3.4%

15. Mortgage arrears: what crisis?
Still
98,137
(13 per cent) of mortgage accounts for Principal Dwelling Houses are in
arrears (down from 117,000 last year)
38,041
PDH accounts in arrears over 720 days: no decrease
15,276
BTL accounts in arrears over 720 days (€4.6 billion, 17% of BTLs)
Financialisation/profiteering speculative ‘investment’: Up to 20,000
residential mortgages sold to "mortgage vultures“

17. Austerity (to pay for bailing out banks and European financial system - results in lack
of social housing)
•Austerity budgets reduced funding for local authority housing from €1.3bn in 2007 to just €83 million in 2013
•As a result, only 8,200 units were delivered in these years
•Had spending being maintained at the 2008 level an additional 25,000 social housing units would have been
provided

18. NAMA
•Playing a significant role in worsening the housing crisis through
its sale of assets to real estate investment trusts (REITs).
•Government encouraged Irish-based REITs in 2012 through
generous tax breaks.
•Nama advertises portfolios with residential rental income -
Selling to investors with this expected rate of return places huge
upward pressure on rents
•600 units out of a promised 4,000 social housing units
•3bn with developers - 22,000 units in Dublin (half of expected
demand) and surrounding counties by 2019 -existing units and
1,500 hectares of development land.
•maximum commercial return - Nama will sell these units at the
highest price, thus inflating prices further.
•need for rental growth – rent control

19. NAMA: Bringing the global
property bubble back to Ireland?
• Transactions involving income-producing real estate
totalled $770.2bn globally in 2014, up 9 percent from
2013
• .“What’s really driving all this activity is the
availability of capital rather than the underlying
fundamentals”
• “The wall of money is even bigger than before the
crisis.”
• “The corollary of so much capital focusing on limited
stock is higher prices. Core property is overpriced in
almost all markets, say 61 percent of those surveyed.
• finding the required rate of return will involve taking
on more risk

21. Social Housing 2020 strategy & Capital Investment Plan = Worsening crisis
•110,000 units by 2020 - only 35,000 new social housing units
•only 22,500 (1/5) would be built or bought by local authorities or housing associations (only
3750 per annum)
•11,000 would be leased
• 2,300 “voids”
At that rate current housing list will not be dealt with until 2038 ie will take 23 years!
75,000 – HAP & RAS – Private rental sector: supply from where???
Truth: funding/resources is an issue – LAs being told to use Has & ‘off balance sheet’

22. Public Land is Available
But…PPP
The council is seeking expressions of interest from venture capitalists,
financiers, investors, housing providers, developers, builders or consortiums of
the above to enter into discussions on providing private and public housing on
council owned land.

23. In who’s interest is current housing policy?
• Property Industry Ireland, representing developers, real estate agents, the largest
banks, financial institutions, and legal firms is making the case for reducing the ‘cost
burden’ and speeding up the ‘development process’ through incentivizing private
development (such as reducing Vat on construction, development contributions
along with reducing Part V– which they achieved)
• The increased supply of private housing will ensure, they claim, market principles will
operate and prices will drop. However, this policy did not work in the Celtic Tiger
housing boom. Additional supply did not reduce prices.
• They all have a vested interest in a rising property market.
• Media - property economists, who themselves work for these institutions that have a
direct interest in rising property prices such as banks, mortgage brokers and
stockbrokers.
• Rising house prices celebrated in the media to sell advertising and supplements
• Political return - government ministers welcoming property price growth and
international capital investors buying up distressed Irish homes as signals of a return
to growth.
• At least 41 of the 166 TDs in the Dáil are landlords

24. • Need radically different approach to housing policy
• Neoliberal – the private market will solve it – ‘enterpreneurial investment’
still dominates Irish state and political thinking
• Move away from speculative housing as investment – to a rights and– to a rights and
home based approach – underpinned by human rights & strong role ofhome based approach – underpinned by human rights & strong role of
the statethe state
• Enshrining right to housing in the constitution (As reccommended by
constitutional convention)
• Additional 1bn in budget for social housing (Wealth tax, relax EU fiscal
rules)
• Rent regulation & tenants rights
• CPO vacant housing & land : private housing vacancy: 100,000 in Leinster,
43,000 in Dublin
• Cooperative and co-housing models
• Proper planning and regional development
• Redirect NAMAs 3bn from developers to build low cost rent and social
housing
• Debt write down like Iceland
•

25. The constitution?
• Rent control or taking over vacant land - would contravene
private property rights enshrined in the Constitution.
• It is true that Article 43.2 protects “the right of private
ownership”.
• However, Article 43.2.1 states that this right “ought to be
regulated by the principles of social justice” and the State
may, “delimit by law” these rights for “the common good”.

26. A Human Rights Approach Case Study
Collective Complaint against Ireland, which outlines appalling and substandard
housing issues across 20 Local Authority housing estates, has been deemed admissible
for further investigation by the European Committee of Social Rights.
Council of Europe European Social Charter:
Article 30 states:
With a view to ensuring the effective exercise of the right to protection against
poverty and social exclusion, the Parties undertake:
to take measures within the framework of an overall and co-ordinated approach to
promote the effective access of persons who live or risk living in a situation of social
exclusion or poverty, as well as their families, to, in particular, employment, housing,
training, education, culture and social and medical assistance
Article 31 of the RESC on the right to housing states: “With a view to ensuring the
effective exercise of the right to housing, the Parties undertake to take measures
designed: 1. to promote access to housing of an adequate standard; 2. to prevent and
reduce homelessness with a view to its gradual elimination; 3. to make the price of
housing accessible to those without adequate resources
But Ireland hasn’t ratified Article 31!

27. If only people in housing distress
were banks…….