DW 2015: Bjarne Myklebust - The Future of Television

1. The Future of Television
Five major trends shaping the future of our industry
Bjarne Andre Myklebust , NRK
DW2015

2. #1
Technology is driving change

3. Tech companies are changing the industry

4. Changes are technology driven

5. – Ted Sarandos, Netflix’ chief of content
«Netflix is a technology company. How many TV networks would
describe themselves as a technology company? Frankly, I can’t
think of any.»
«In fact, TV networks appear to be going in the reverse direction.
When HBO launched its Scandinavian service HBO Nordic built out its own
technology solution, which failed horribly in the market. In the US, however, the
company took a completely different approach with HBO Now, handing the
technical implementation to high-end tech company.»

6. #2
People want more value for money

7. Cable cutting in the US
• 7% of US homes have broadband and
OTT but no pay TV
• Global OTT video service subscription
revenues will increase from nearly $9
billion in 2014 to over $19 billion in 2019,
according to Parks Associates.
• Currently, 57% of US broadband
households subscribe to an OTT video
service.
• Among European broadband households,
57% in the UK, 29% in Spain, and 24% in
Germany subscribe to an OTT service.

8. Minutter/dag
• Totalt (2000-2014) +1,5%
• Lineær (2009-2014) -1,5%
• OTT (2009-2014) +70%Minutter/dag
• Totalt (2000-2014) +1,5%
• Lineær (2009-2014) -1,5%
• OTT (2009-2014) +70%
Kilde:Mediavisjon (Norge)

9. Cutting cables i Norway?
Source: SSB, NKOM, NRK - *SSB adjusted for new model
1800000
1850000
1900000
1950000
2000000
2050000
2100000
2150000
2200000
2250000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
TV+Subscriptions

10. Cutting cables i Norway?
Source: SSB, NKOM, NRK - *SSB adjusted for new model
1800000
1900000
2000000
2100000
2200000
2300000
2400000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Households
TV2Subscriptions

11. Internet Usage 16-24 oldsMinutes
0
55
110
165
220
2012 2013 2014
8292105
204196
163
Internet 16-24 years old TV 16-24 years old
Minutes per Day - Norway
Kilde: SSB Norsk Mediebarometer

13. Over-The-Air Growth driven by OTT
«Support for free over-the-air TV is showing up in some very unusual places these days.
The pairing of OTA TV with broadband is a good one for some consumers. While library TV titles are ably
handled by services like Netflix and Hulu, the very latest linear TV favorites like Big Bang Theory and local
football games aren’t freely available outside of pay TV. OTA delivery solves that problem.»
Cablevision appears to be embracing it. The company is offering a “cord-cutter package” which combines
50 mbps broadband with an OTA antenna.
- Collin Dixon, nScreenMedia

14. #3
The future of TV is data driven

15. Data will optimize revenue and user experience
and lower cost exposure
• Programatic and targeted advertising on the fly
• Enhanced user experience and recommendations
• Aid for more successful content production

16. Programatic and targeted advertising on the fly
Source: broadbandtvnews.com
• more then half of all online video
advertising by 2020 will be
generated programmatically
according to broadbandtvnews.com
• all ready common for short form
video
• advanced solutions coming for long
form
• Google already provides tools

17. Data will optimize revenue and user experience
and lower cost exposure
• Programatic and targeted advertising on the fly
• Enhanced user experience and recommendations
• Aid for more successful content production

18. Underlaying preferences for how to find and
discover content are changing
We are here
Passive Surfing
Active Searching
Recommendations
technology.ihs.com

20. NRK just launched login
functionality witch gives
the users enhanced
personal experience
• Favorites
• Continue to watch on other
platforms
• Get notified of new
episodes
• Next - Recommendations

21. «Can NRK crack the Public
Service Algorithm…»
Data driven programing..

22. Data will optimize revenue and user experience
and lower cost exposure
• Programatic and targeted advertising on the fly
• Enhanced user experience and recommendations
• Aid for more successful content production

23. Each season Amazon chooses
several shows to make pilots
and allows Prime members to
watch and comment on those
pilots, giving them ratings that
help determine whether the
shows will be picked up to
series.
Aid for more successful content production

25. #4
Globale competition driven by Economy of scale

26. The competition is globale !

27. Mediavision estimates
total Norwegian OTT
SVOD revenue to be
1.1 billion NOK (2014)

28. Netflix expects to invest nearly $5bn on acquired and original content in 2016,
Near 63 million paying subscribers at the end of Q2 2015, a presence in over
50 markets, and viewing times up 50% in two years.

29. OTT Content Polarization
More of this !
More expensive and
spectacular !
4K
Driven by the globale
economy of scale
More of this !
More professionalized by
channel networks.
Driven by advertising
reaching a difficult audience

30. #5
Shift in plattform usage

31. Chromecast Apple TV Smart-TV Game Consoles

32. Preferred platformes
Kilde: NRK Analyse
Mobile
3 %TV
23 %
PC
57 %
Tablet
17 %
• NRK Streaming totale
• Long-form content
• Average time spent 2015

33. BBC iPlayer
unknown
8 %
Mobile
19 %
TV
24 %
PC
25 %
Tablet
23 %
% of requests Sept 2015
Kilde: BBC

35. The majority wants to consume streaming on a big
screen if given the alternative
%
0
20
40
60
80
PC/MAC TV Tablets Mobile Dont know
112
80
14
If you are at home and can choose, where would you prefer to watch streamed content like TV-
series, films and other programs?
Scorce: Ipsos MMI
2014

36. Time spent NRK TV OTT on TV
01#
Jan
05#
Jan
12#
Jan
19#
Jan
26#
Jan
02#
Feb
09#
Feb
16#
Feb
23#
Feb
02#
Mar
09#
Mar
16#
Mar
23#
Mar
30#
Mar
06#
Apr
13#
Apr
20#
Apr
27#
Apr
04#
May
11#
May
18#
May
25#
May
01#
Jun
08#
Jun
15#
Jun
22#
Jun
29#
Jun
06#
Jul
13#
Jul
20#
Jul
27#
Jul
03#
Aug
10#
Aug
17#
Aug
24#
Aug
31#
Aug
07#
Sep
14#
Sep
21#
Sep
28#
Sep
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
androidtv
atv
bluray
chromecast
ps
smart_tv
spillkonsoll
stb
tv
AppleTV
Game
Consoles
Smart TVs

37. TV Centric OTT devices
Amazon, Apple, Google, and Roku dominate
the US streaming media device market with
86% of sales, according to Parks Associates.
Nearly 20% of US broadband households own
at least one streaming media player, such as
a Roku 3, Amazon Fire TV, or Apple TV
Roku devices are the most used among US
broadband households that own a streaming
media device at 37%, followed by Google
Chromecast at 19%, Apple TV at 17%, and
Amazon Fire TV devices at 14%
Source: Parks Associates

38. NRKTV App vs WEB
Browser
60 %
App
40 %
Kilde: NRK Analyse
Average unique users tablets
Browser
61 %
App
39 %
Average unique users mobile

39. Wanna see the
future of
tomorrow?
Look at the kids of today!
nerations pattern of media
ill change when they get
ey will bring with them a

40. Custom service for kids

41. Preferred platformes
Kilde: NRK Analyse
Mobile
9 %
PC
24 %
Tablet
67 %
• Average time spent 2015

42. 145$ 135$ 135$
111$ 113$
171$
129$
173$
200$
14$ 16$ 14$
10$ 13$
15$
15$
19$
13$
204$
289$
237$
221$ 205$
245$
156$
144$
137$
0$
50$
100$
150$
200$
250$
300$
350$
400$
450$
500$
Sni/$så$
langt$
Karsten$og$
Petra$1$
Karsten$og$
Petra$2$
Karsten$og$
Petra$3$
Karsten$og$
Petra$4$
Karsten$og$
Petra$5$
Karsten$og$
Petra$6$
Karsten$og$
Petra$7$
Karsten$og$
Petra$8$
Webra=ng$
Opptaksseing$
Live$
Rating per episode
Karsten and Petra
Higher rating on
tablets then TV.
363 000

43. Kids streaming usage before and after deploying
av dedicated service
!50$000$
50$000$
100$000$
150$000$
200$000$
250$000$
300$000$
350$000$
400$000$
Uke$1$2013$
Uke$3$
Uke$5$
Uke$7$
Uke$9$
Uke$11$
Uke$13$
Uke$15$
Uke$17$
Uke$19$
Uke$21$
Uke$23$
Uke$25$
Uke$27$
Uke$29$
Uke$31$
Uke$33$
Uke$35$
Uke$37$
Uke$39$
Uke$41$
Uke$43$
Uke$45$
Uke$47$
Uke$49$
Uke$51$
Uke$1$2014$
Uke$3$
Uke$5$
Uke$7$
Uke$9$
Uke$11$
Uke$13$
Uke$15$
Uke$17$
Uke$19$
Uke$21$
Uke$23$
Uke$25$
Uke$27$
Uke$29$
Uke$31$
Uke$33$
Uke$35$
Uke$37$
Uke$39$
Uke$41$
Weekly$uniqe$users.$$
Super$ Childrens$player$
Same content - higher reach !

44. 60 sec on other trends..
• Globale players will take local positions
• More local cooperation and consolidation
• 4K, HDR, 360 and VR
• Hybrid TV experience, actively combining Broadcast and OTT
• Linear will not die but the amount of linear channels will subside. VOD will
grow.
• Apple and Amazon will deliver low cost linear cable-like channel services.
Linear going online.

45. The take…
For broadcasters and content providers to survive - the ability to
understand, develop and utilize technology to meet the high demand of
modern user behavior is just at critical as a high quality content.
Thank you !
Bjarne Andre Myklebust
NRK