This document summarizes a meeting to discuss the development of a tool integrating hydrological forecasting and multi-use management of the Arzal dam. It outlines the objectives to develop a hydrological model using meteorological forecasts as input and producing hydrological forecasts as output to feed into a management model generating dam management scenarios. It describes the existing conceptual rainfall-runoff hydrological model being used and plans for future work exploring data and how to present forecast results operationally. Finally, it lists upcoming events where the project will be presented, including an EMS conference to present hydrological forecasts from meteorological data and a stay at ECMWF to collect meteorological forecasts to evaluate their potential for hydrological prediction.

1. DROP meeting and visit
Drought Team
Pour mieux
affirmer
ses missions,
le Cemagref
devient Irstea
www.irstea.fr
June 11th-13th 2013
Institution d’Aménagement de la Vilaine

2. 2
Objectives of the project
Developing a tool that integrates hydrological forecasting and multi-uses
management of the Arzal dam
Meteorological
forecasts
Hydrological
Model
Hydrological
forecasts
Management
model
Dam management
scenarios

3. 3
Exploratory analysis of data collected
 Characterisation of flows and low flows
Interannual daily mean of precipitations and flows
Focus on May-October period  Low flow period

4. 4
The hydrological model
Meteorological
forecasts
Hydrological
Model
Hydrological
forecasts
Management
model
Dam management
scenarios

5. 5
The hydrological model
Existing conceptual rainfall-runoff model
 Daily
 6 parameters
 Developed specifically for low flows
Inputs: meteorological data (P, T, E)
 Past observed data
 Mid-term forecasts and past observed data
 Seasonal forecasts (?)
Outputs: hydrological forecasts
GR6J structure (Pushpalatha et al., 2011)

6. 6
The hydrological model
n precipitation scenarios
Meteorological forecasts (P)
Hydrological Model
n flow simulations
Day of
forecast
Target
period
Hydrological forecasts (Q)
(Pushpalatha, 2013)
Current and Future work:
Exploratory analysis of data collected
How to select relevant forecasts among past observed data ?
How to efficiently present results for an operational use in risk anticipation ?

7. 7
The management model
Meteorological
forecasts
Hydrological
Hydrological
Model
Model
GR6J
Hydrological
forecasts
Management
model
Dam management
scenarios

8. 8
The management model
Will take into account all water uses
 Drinking water
 Fishway
 Boating
Inputs: possible scenarios of water inflows for coming period
Outputs:
 Possible management scenarios
 Related impacts on uses
Experience on water management in the team:
 Climaware project (Charles Perrin and Guillaume Thirel)
Optimisation of management rules for dams upstream the Seine river
 Maria-Helena Ramos also has experience on water management issues
PhD work on optimisation of the management of a power dam based on power profitability

9. 9
Past events
Meeting of PhD students: Poster on the Arzal dam
 22-23 April 2013: PhD School
 7 June 2013: Irstea
Participation to EGU presentation
 9-12 April 2013
 I contributed to the preparation of a game that was presented at
EGU …which you will try! It was prepared together with Helena
(Irstea), F. Pappenberger (ECMWF), SJ van Andel (UNESCO) and
A. Wood (NOAA). We are preparing a paper on the results

10. 10
To come
EMS conference in Reading in Septembre 2013
 Presentation of hydrological forecasts obtained from mid-term
precipitation forecasts combined with climatological data.
Development of operational graphs for drought forecasting.
Abstract accepted
Stay at ECMWF/CEPMMT also in Reading (with F. Pappenberger)
 Meteorological forecasts: data will be collected to enrich our
database of meteorological forecasts and tried as forcings to the
GR6J model to evaluate their potential predictability for
hydrological purposes.

11. 11
…
Thank you for your attention!