The document summarizes real estate market trends and outlook in the United States. It discusses topics such as national existing home sales, home prices, housing affordability, foreclosure and delinquency rates, housing starts, the state of the economy, job changes, and the federal budget deficit. It also provides forecasts for home sales and prices and discusses factors that could lead to inflation or deflation in the future. The outlook is that stimulus spending and falling housing inventory will help stabilize home prices in the coming years.

1. Real Estate Market Trends & Outlook Lawrence Yun, Ph.D. Chief Economist NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS ® Presentation at Northern Virginia Association of REALTORS ® September 23, 2009

2. National Existing Home Sales

3. Recent Pending Home Sales Rising, but Taking Longer to Close in Recent Months

5. National Existing Median Home Price $

6. Dallas, San Diego, Washington Home Price Source: NAR $ thousand SD DC Dallas

7. Home Price to Income Ratio (Enticing for All-Cash Buyers) Stay within Budget and all will be OK !

8. Housing Affordability Index (Higher numbers mean more people can afford to buy a home) ALL-TIME HIGH … on conforming loans …if people need to stay within budget

9. Latest Monthly Home Price Trend Case-Shiller, Govt (FHFA), NAR … Seasonally Adjusted Data $ thousand NAR FHFA Case-Shiller

11. Foreclosure Rates Virginia vs Nation % US Virginia

13. Homebuilders Down and Out (Single Family Starts and New Home Sales) Source: Census In thousand units

14. New Home Inventory for Sale Source: Census In thousand units In thousands

15. Housing Starts: Too Much to Too Little New Units Needed 3 million more people each year … 1 to 1.4 million household formation … need to account for 300,000 demolitions …. need 1.3 to 1.7 new units

16. Economy to Recover Slowly GDP annualized growth rate Source: BEA Latest Data Forecast

17. Job Changes in U.S. … Unemployment Rate to 10.5% Source: BLS, NAR forecast One-month payroll job changes in thousands

18. Federal Budget Deficit .. Impact? Future Generation and Housing $ million Source: Congressional Budget Office Projections

19. Tax Revenue Collections (4-quarter change as of 2009 Q1) Tax Assessors and Appraisers need to meet %

21. Economic Outlook 2008 2009 2010 forecast 50 year average GDP 1.1% -2.9% 1.5% 3.3% CPI Inflation 3.8% -0.5% 2.1% 4.1% Unemployment Rate 5.8% 9.5% 10.0% 5.9% Mortgage Rate 6.1% 5.2% 5.8% 9.1% Existing Home Sales 4.9 m 4.9 m 5.2 m 5.2 m in 2000 (before bubble)

23. Commercial Credit Freeze

24. Commercial Real Estate Loan Delinquency Rate Source: Federal Reserve