Workshop on climate change and uncertainty from below and above, Delhi. http://steps-centre.org/2016/blog/climate-change-and-uncertainty-from-above-and-below/
If you're not measuring advertising effectiveness through RCTs, you're doing ...Grega Kespret
This document discusses the importance of using randomized controlled trials (RCTs) to measure advertising effectiveness and incrementality. It notes that simply comparing converters who saw an ad to those who did not see it (observational studies) can overestimate effectiveness due to selection bias and confounding variables. RCTs randomly assign users to test and control groups to view or not view an ad, allowing for an unbiased estimate of the ad's causal impact. While challenging, the author argues advertisers should start using RCTs internally to properly measure incrementality and guide investment decisions.
“Does co-opetition change the game? A Bayesian analysis of firm participation strategy in an industry standard-setting organization,” 43rd Hawaii International Conference on Systems Science (HICSS), Kauai, HI, January 2010
Este documento describe un método para identificar errores técnicos en el drive de tenis. El método implica grabar al alumno realizando golpeos de drive, ver el video individualmente y anotar los errores observados, comparar las observaciones, y registrar los datos de los errores identificados. El objetivo es ayudar al alumno a identificar sus propios errores técnicos y mejorar su técnica de drive.
Spi ce n Gr i l l ed Foods Pvt . Lt d. i s a gr i l l ed food company establ i shed i n 2012 i n Del hi . They take pr i de i n usi ng fres h i ngr edi ents and spi ces to cr eat e t hei r di shes. The company ai ms to expa nd t hrough openi ng new out l et s a nd offer i ng f r a nchi se opport uni t i es t o i nt er est ed i ndi vi dual s. Cur r ent l y, SGF has 15 out l et s i n var i ous par t s of Del
Aquarela do Brasil is a song composed in 1939 by Ary Barroso. It is considered Brazil's unofficial national anthem and captures the beauty and diversity of Brazil through its lyrics describing the country's landscapes, people, and culture. The song has been recorded by many Brazilian and international artists over the decades and remains one of the most recognizable Brazilian songs worldwide.
The Lewisham Children’s Hearing Services Working Group (CHSWG) aims to ensure high quality services for deaf children and their families. The group meets at least twice a year and includes representatives from health, education, social care, voluntary organizations, parents, and deaf children. Key responsibilities include monitoring children's hearing services, providing guidance, and producing an annual report. Members are expected to represent their organizations and keep informed of issues to discuss at meetings. The CHSWG reports to the Healthy Child Programme Board.
Spelling correction systems for e-commerce platformsAnjan Goswami
This is a presentation on building a scalable machine learned spell correction system for an e-commerce site. However, most of the techniques are also generally applicable for any large consumer site.
The document discusses strategies for innovation at both the societal and organizational levels. It provides 10 rules for strategic innovators, which include having clarity of direction, clear communication, reducing bureaucracy, shared purpose, implementing R&D at institutional and local levels, tolerating risks and failures, quickly dropping things that don't work, being irreverent to established norms, funding "crazy ideas", and avoiding an accounting approach. It also discusses managing the present while selectively forgetting the past to create the future, and the need for a strategic balance between competition in the present and future.
If you're not measuring advertising effectiveness through RCTs, you're doing ...Grega Kespret
This document discusses the importance of using randomized controlled trials (RCTs) to measure advertising effectiveness and incrementality. It notes that simply comparing converters who saw an ad to those who did not see it (observational studies) can overestimate effectiveness due to selection bias and confounding variables. RCTs randomly assign users to test and control groups to view or not view an ad, allowing for an unbiased estimate of the ad's causal impact. While challenging, the author argues advertisers should start using RCTs internally to properly measure incrementality and guide investment decisions.
“Does co-opetition change the game? A Bayesian analysis of firm participation strategy in an industry standard-setting organization,” 43rd Hawaii International Conference on Systems Science (HICSS), Kauai, HI, January 2010
Este documento describe un método para identificar errores técnicos en el drive de tenis. El método implica grabar al alumno realizando golpeos de drive, ver el video individualmente y anotar los errores observados, comparar las observaciones, y registrar los datos de los errores identificados. El objetivo es ayudar al alumno a identificar sus propios errores técnicos y mejorar su técnica de drive.
Spi ce n Gr i l l ed Foods Pvt . Lt d. i s a gr i l l ed food company establ i shed i n 2012 i n Del hi . They take pr i de i n usi ng fres h i ngr edi ents and spi ces to cr eat e t hei r di shes. The company ai ms to expa nd t hrough openi ng new out l et s a nd offer i ng f r a nchi se opport uni t i es t o i nt er est ed i ndi vi dual s. Cur r ent l y, SGF has 15 out l et s i n var i ous par t s of Del
Aquarela do Brasil is a song composed in 1939 by Ary Barroso. It is considered Brazil's unofficial national anthem and captures the beauty and diversity of Brazil through its lyrics describing the country's landscapes, people, and culture. The song has been recorded by many Brazilian and international artists over the decades and remains one of the most recognizable Brazilian songs worldwide.
The Lewisham Children’s Hearing Services Working Group (CHSWG) aims to ensure high quality services for deaf children and their families. The group meets at least twice a year and includes representatives from health, education, social care, voluntary organizations, parents, and deaf children. Key responsibilities include monitoring children's hearing services, providing guidance, and producing an annual report. Members are expected to represent their organizations and keep informed of issues to discuss at meetings. The CHSWG reports to the Healthy Child Programme Board.
Spelling correction systems for e-commerce platformsAnjan Goswami
This is a presentation on building a scalable machine learned spell correction system for an e-commerce site. However, most of the techniques are also generally applicable for any large consumer site.
The document discusses strategies for innovation at both the societal and organizational levels. It provides 10 rules for strategic innovators, which include having clarity of direction, clear communication, reducing bureaucracy, shared purpose, implementing R&D at institutional and local levels, tolerating risks and failures, quickly dropping things that don't work, being irreverent to established norms, funding "crazy ideas", and avoiding an accounting approach. It also discusses managing the present while selectively forgetting the past to create the future, and the need for a strategic balance between competition in the present and future.
Ancient Egyptian medicine made significant contributions to psychiatry. Egyptian doctors recognized relationships between physical and mental health as early as 1550 BCE, as evidenced by the Edwin Smith and Ebers medical papyri. The papyri described the brain, classified psychological diseases, and documented early understandings of depression, alcoholism, hysteria, and psychosis. Though Egyptian treatments were sometimes inadequate, their empirical observations and attempts to formulate remedies represented a major advancement in recognizing and studying mental health issues in a medical context.
Presentation restaurant de la fin du mondedocteuratelier
The document summarizes the Restaurant at the End of the Universe. It describes how the restaurant is built on the remains of a ruined planet that is enclosed in a time bubble projected to the end of the universe. Guests can watch the destruction of the universe while eating sumptuous meals. The restaurant allows guests to meet and dine with people from across space and time. Visitors can return to the restaurant without risk of meeting themselves.
Marketing : 25 utilisations de la réalité virtuelle par les marques !ARUCO
Les applications immersives et la réalité virtuelle sont de plus en plus utilisées par les entreprises comme un outil marketing. Aruco vous propose de passer en revue 25 initiatives utilisant la réalité virtuelle comme un puissant outil de promotion de marques.
La technologie permet de faire le buzz, de séduire, d'immerger le client potentiel ou encore de récolter de précieuses données sur le client.
D’après une récente étude de Strategy Analytics, le marché des casques de réalité virtuelle devrait s’élever à environ 895 Millions de dollars cette année (2016).
Près de 77% de la valeur sera captée par les 3 principaux acteurs, à savoir l'Oculus Rift, HTC Vive et Sony Playstation VR.
Pourtant, ceux-là ne devraient représenter que 13% du marché en volume, notamment en raison de l’abondance d'accessoires low-cost, le Google Cardboard en tête. Cet accessoire annoncé par le moteur de recherche en 2014 a considérablement contribué à développer les usages de la réalité virtuelle dans le marketing.
Aruco vous propose une panorama de 25 initiatives d'utilisation de la réalité virtuelle comme opportunité Marketing.
Idag är det hög arbetslöshet bland ungdomar och därför tog vi reda vilka behov och utmaningar ungdomar står inför när de ska komma ut på arbetsmarknaden. Detta projekt var ett samarbete med Fryshuset där vi också undersökte hur Fryshuset kunde stötta dessa ungdomar på bästa sätt för att nå meningsfull sysselsättning.
Thèse "Comment une marque peut intégrer une dimension émotionnelle grâce à la...Laurence Thébault
Le consommateur est devenu hyper exigeant. Son environnement, fortement digitalisé, lui a offert
de nouvelles opportunités. Sa communication avec ses paires a été démultipliée. Dans le même
temps, il a tiré la quintessence de cette digitalisation pour accéder à une offre de services et de
produits comme jamais il n’en avait connue auparavant.
Mais aujourd’hui, cette économie de l’hyper choix ne le satisfait plus.
Il veut être reconnu et valorisé dans ses achats. Il veut une congruence avec la marque qu’il
choisit : au-delà du produit et du service, il veut vivre une expérience. Il veut de l’émotion !
Créées dans les années 60, la réalité augmentée et la réalité virtuelle se développent plus
rapidement depuis 15 ans. Grâce à la maturité des composants de ses technologies, elles
atteignent aujourd’hui, enfin, un niveau de performance qui vont leur permettre d’entrer résolument
dans une nouvelle dimension.
Au service de la marque, ces technologies hautement sensorielles vont donner le pouvoir à un
consommateur désormais mature. Doué de sens et en quête d’émotions, le consommateur sera
un être augmenté, au coeur de la marque et de son écosystème.
Alors “Comment une marque peut-elle intégrer une dimension émotionnelle grâce à la réalité
augmentée et la réalité virtuelle ?”.
Je répondrai dans un premier temps en démontrant qu’au-delà de leur fort pouvoir émotionnel, ces
technologies constituent un vecteur de croissance et un levier d’adoption client :
● la réalité augmentée et la réalité virtuelle sont-elles la prochaine grande innovation ?
● la réalité augmentée et la réalité virtuelle sont-elles créatrices de valeurs ?
● le design, élément clé du succès de la réalité augmentée et de la réalité virtuelle ?
Dans un deuxième temps, je démontrerai au travers de 3 champs d’expressions comment la
marque peut mettre en application les technologies :
● la réalité augmentée et la réalité virtuelle, sources et médias pour le brand content ?
● la réalité augmentée et la réalité virtuelle sont-elles des leviers pour le commerce ?
● la réalité augmentée et la réalité virtuelle, le futur des médias sociaux ?
L’objectif de cette thèse a pour but d’ouvrir l’esprit des marques aux potentiels émotionnels que
ces technologies proposent. Elles peuvent être un levier de croissance tout en créant une nouvelle
relation marque/consommateur.
El documento describe el concepto, características, sujetos y obligaciones de las partes involucradas en un contrato de underwriting. El underwriting es un contrato entre una empresa financiera y una sociedad emisora de valores donde la empresa financiera se compromete a financiar, prefinanciar y vender los valores emitidos por la sociedad emisora.
This letter provides a reference for Viktor Filipov who worked as a Senior Support Engineer at Thintech from 2015 to 2016. In this role, Viktor was responsible for supporting 25 clients with Terminal Server Citrix Environments and two multi-tenant hosted environments, as part of a four person team. The letter states that Viktor rose to the challenges of the demanding role quickly and was able to communicate effectively with clients and other team members. The director of engineering at Thintech would re-hire Viktor if given the opportunity.
This document proposes a performance-based contract scheme to retrofit buildings and hotels in the Caribbean with energy efficient technologies. It estimates that a single hotel retrofitted with LED lights, efficient computers/electronics, energy efficient condensers, and solar PV could save 25% in electricity consumption and $105,000 annually. Savings would be allocated to loan repayment, monitoring costs, and lower electricity bills for the hotel. The scheme aims to use early savings to fund additional retrofits each year, decreasing loan amounts over time as more hotels are retrofitted with less upfront capital needed. The criteria for evaluating the scheme's success include achieving the largest overall guaranteed savings, direct savings for buildings, number of buildings retrofitted, and shortest implementation time
Bayesian Model Fusion for Forecasting Civil UnrestParang Saraf
Abstract: With the rapid rise in social media, alternative news sources, and blogs, ordinary citizens have become information producers as much as information consumers. Highly charged prose, images, and videos spread virally, and stoke the embers of social unrest by alerting fellow citizens to relevant happenings and
spurring them into action. We are interested in using Big Data approaches to generate forecasts of civil unrest from open source indicators. The heterogenous nature of data coupled with the rich and diverse origins of civil unrest call for a multi-model approach to such forecasting. We present a modular approach wherein a collection of models use overlapping sources of data to independently forecast protests. Fusion of alerts into one single alert stream becomes a key system informatics problem and we present a statistical framework to accomplish such fusion. Given an alert from one of the numerous models, the decision space
for fusion has two possibilities: (i) release the alert or (ii) suppress the alert. Using a Bayesian decision theoretical framework, we present a fusion approach for releasing or suppressing alerts. The resulting system enables real-time decisions and more importantly tuning of precision and recall. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.
For more information, please visit: http://people.cs.vt.edu/parang/ or contact parang at firstname at cs vt edu
Impact evaluations aim to predict the future, but they are rooted in particular contexts and to what extent they generalize is an open and important question. I founded an organization to systematically collect and synthesize impact evaluation results on a wide variety of interventions in development. These data allow me to answer this and other questions for the rst time using a large data set of studies. I consider several measures of generalizability, discuss the strengths and limitations of each metric, and provide benchmarks based on the data. I use the example of the eect of conditional cash transfers on enrollment rates to show how some of the heterogeneity can be modelled and the eect this can have on the generalizability measures. The predictive power of the model improves over time as more studies are completed. Finally, I show how researchers can
estimate the generalizability of their own study using their own data, even when data from no comparable studies exist.
Read more at: www.hhs.se/site
PROBABILISTIC CREDIT SCORING FOR COHORTS OF BORROWERSAndresz26
This document proposes a methodology for probabilistic credit scoring of cohorts (groups) of borrowers with similar characteristics. It begins by discussing existing credit scoring models that focus on individual applicants. It then outlines a methodology to score groups that considers the diversity within each group and the distribution of default probabilities. The key steps are: 1) estimating default probabilities for individuals using a logit model, 2) estimating distributions of variables for each group, 3) simulating individuals in each group to capture diversity, and 4) incorporating residual variability to account for unobserved factors. This allows ranking groups by risk while addressing uncertainty about a group's composition and risk preferences of decision makers.
Free Printable Snowflake Border - Customize And PrintBrandy Carpenter
The document provides instructions for creating an account and requesting a paper writing service from HelpWriting.net. It is a 5 step process:
1. Create an account by providing a password and email.
2. Complete a 10 minute order form with instructions, sources, deadline and attach a sample if wanting the writer to imitate style.
3. Review bids from writers and choose one based on qualifications, history and feedback and place a deposit.
4. Review the paper and authorize full payment if pleased, or request free revisions.
5. Request multiple revisions to ensure satisfaction, and HelpWriting.net promises original, high quality content or a full refund.
The application of data mining to recommender systems sunsine123
This document discusses the application of data mining techniques to recommender systems. It begins with an introduction to recommender systems and their use of algorithms like collaborative filtering to provide recommendations. It then discusses how data mining can enhance recommender systems, including through clustering, classification, association rule mining, and graph-based techniques. Emerging areas like meta-recommenders, social data mining systems, and temporal recommendation are also covered. The document concludes that data mining algorithms are becoming an important part of generating accurate recommendations across different domains.
HLEG thematic workshop on Economic Insecurity, Andrea Brandolini, presenterStatsCommunications
HLEG thematic workshop on Economic Insecurity, 4 March 2016, New York, United States. More information at: http://oecd/hleg-workshop-on-economic-insecurity-2016
DQ2Patrick QueisneOne of the greatest barriers that the orgaDustiBuckner14
DQ2
Patrick Queisne
One of the greatest barriers that the organization I am at for my practicum has with implementation of evidence-based practice (EBP) is education. Historically, the use of would tactics such as mentorship, online learning modules, in person skills days, and lectures. However, the COVID-19 pandemic forced facilities shift in person educational avenues with an attempt to adapt by using technology. Live streaming videos rapidly became the go to replacement for the in-person class. This was the same approach that was taken by nursing programs across the country to replace clinical time for nursing students. Now there are new graduate nurses entering facilities with little, if any, in person clinical time.
Staff has now realized the opportunity to have flexibility for training as there is no commute time associated with attending virtual sessions. However, as the facility seeks to return to the new normal, in person classes are not well received. The intent of continuing education is to help keep nurses informed of the latest EBP (Fletcher, 2016). Now faced with a lack of staff engagement related to long working and staffing shortages leaves the empty classrooms for in-person education. From an educational standpoint, the first part of developing a plan to determine how individuals in the organization want the information delivered. This involves having open lines of communication between educators for the facility and the staff receiving the education.
References
Fletcher, S. (2016). Nurse education specialist utilizing career coaching to encourage lifelong learning. Journal of Nursing Education and Practice, 6(6), 71-74. doi: 10.5430/jnep.v6n6p71
Assignment Task 2
Respond to one of your colleague’s posts in 125 words response and explain how you might see the implications differently.
Colleague Response
Romel Jimera
Top of Form
For this week's discussion on the relationship between data variability, sample size, and confidence level, I chose the "Size of the Place in 1000s" as my quantifiable variable, utilizing the General Social Survey dataset. The mean Age from that dataset is 49.01. To better appreciate the tradeoff between lowering the risk of our confidence in estimations and increasing precision, I entered a random sample size of 100 and 400 with 90 and 95 percent confidence levels, using IBM SPSS Statistics software.
Table 1
In Table 1, the left table shows a random sample of 100, a mean of 324.90, and a standard error of 121.911. Using a 95% confidence interval (CI), the estimation was only 5% off (Frankfort-Nachmias et al., 2021). Meaning we are 95% confident that the actual average size of the place in 1000s is not less than 83 and not more than 566.8. However, with a 90% confidence level in the right table, all the values remain the same except for the CI (122.48, 527.32). Although the CI width is shorter than the previous one, there is more precision, but the chance of error has increased to 10%. C ...
Sentiment Features based Analysis of Online Reviewsiosrjce
IOSR Journal of Computer Engineering (IOSR-JCE) is a double blind peer reviewed International Journal that provides rapid publication (within a month) of articles in all areas of computer engineering and its applications. The journal welcomes publications of high quality papers on theoretical developments and practical applications in computer technology. Original research papers, state-of-the-art reviews, and high quality technical notes are invited for publications.
This document discusses sentiment analysis of online reviews using a hybrid polarity detection system. It first provides background on sentiment analysis and different levels of analysis (document, sentence, aspect). It then describes related work on techniques like Naive Bayes, maximum entropy, and support vector machines. The hybrid system is described as having three modules: 1) data preprocessing, 2) sentiment feature generation that extracts 14 features, and 3) an SVM classifier. Experimental results on movie, hotel, and mobile phone data show the proposed system with two additional features achieves slightly better accuracy than existing approaches. The document concludes that sentiment-based features may provide promising outcomes for sentiment analysis tasks.
Ancient Egyptian medicine made significant contributions to psychiatry. Egyptian doctors recognized relationships between physical and mental health as early as 1550 BCE, as evidenced by the Edwin Smith and Ebers medical papyri. The papyri described the brain, classified psychological diseases, and documented early understandings of depression, alcoholism, hysteria, and psychosis. Though Egyptian treatments were sometimes inadequate, their empirical observations and attempts to formulate remedies represented a major advancement in recognizing and studying mental health issues in a medical context.
Presentation restaurant de la fin du mondedocteuratelier
The document summarizes the Restaurant at the End of the Universe. It describes how the restaurant is built on the remains of a ruined planet that is enclosed in a time bubble projected to the end of the universe. Guests can watch the destruction of the universe while eating sumptuous meals. The restaurant allows guests to meet and dine with people from across space and time. Visitors can return to the restaurant without risk of meeting themselves.
Marketing : 25 utilisations de la réalité virtuelle par les marques !ARUCO
Les applications immersives et la réalité virtuelle sont de plus en plus utilisées par les entreprises comme un outil marketing. Aruco vous propose de passer en revue 25 initiatives utilisant la réalité virtuelle comme un puissant outil de promotion de marques.
La technologie permet de faire le buzz, de séduire, d'immerger le client potentiel ou encore de récolter de précieuses données sur le client.
D’après une récente étude de Strategy Analytics, le marché des casques de réalité virtuelle devrait s’élever à environ 895 Millions de dollars cette année (2016).
Près de 77% de la valeur sera captée par les 3 principaux acteurs, à savoir l'Oculus Rift, HTC Vive et Sony Playstation VR.
Pourtant, ceux-là ne devraient représenter que 13% du marché en volume, notamment en raison de l’abondance d'accessoires low-cost, le Google Cardboard en tête. Cet accessoire annoncé par le moteur de recherche en 2014 a considérablement contribué à développer les usages de la réalité virtuelle dans le marketing.
Aruco vous propose une panorama de 25 initiatives d'utilisation de la réalité virtuelle comme opportunité Marketing.
Idag är det hög arbetslöshet bland ungdomar och därför tog vi reda vilka behov och utmaningar ungdomar står inför när de ska komma ut på arbetsmarknaden. Detta projekt var ett samarbete med Fryshuset där vi också undersökte hur Fryshuset kunde stötta dessa ungdomar på bästa sätt för att nå meningsfull sysselsättning.
Thèse "Comment une marque peut intégrer une dimension émotionnelle grâce à la...Laurence Thébault
Le consommateur est devenu hyper exigeant. Son environnement, fortement digitalisé, lui a offert
de nouvelles opportunités. Sa communication avec ses paires a été démultipliée. Dans le même
temps, il a tiré la quintessence de cette digitalisation pour accéder à une offre de services et de
produits comme jamais il n’en avait connue auparavant.
Mais aujourd’hui, cette économie de l’hyper choix ne le satisfait plus.
Il veut être reconnu et valorisé dans ses achats. Il veut une congruence avec la marque qu’il
choisit : au-delà du produit et du service, il veut vivre une expérience. Il veut de l’émotion !
Créées dans les années 60, la réalité augmentée et la réalité virtuelle se développent plus
rapidement depuis 15 ans. Grâce à la maturité des composants de ses technologies, elles
atteignent aujourd’hui, enfin, un niveau de performance qui vont leur permettre d’entrer résolument
dans une nouvelle dimension.
Au service de la marque, ces technologies hautement sensorielles vont donner le pouvoir à un
consommateur désormais mature. Doué de sens et en quête d’émotions, le consommateur sera
un être augmenté, au coeur de la marque et de son écosystème.
Alors “Comment une marque peut-elle intégrer une dimension émotionnelle grâce à la réalité
augmentée et la réalité virtuelle ?”.
Je répondrai dans un premier temps en démontrant qu’au-delà de leur fort pouvoir émotionnel, ces
technologies constituent un vecteur de croissance et un levier d’adoption client :
● la réalité augmentée et la réalité virtuelle sont-elles la prochaine grande innovation ?
● la réalité augmentée et la réalité virtuelle sont-elles créatrices de valeurs ?
● le design, élément clé du succès de la réalité augmentée et de la réalité virtuelle ?
Dans un deuxième temps, je démontrerai au travers de 3 champs d’expressions comment la
marque peut mettre en application les technologies :
● la réalité augmentée et la réalité virtuelle, sources et médias pour le brand content ?
● la réalité augmentée et la réalité virtuelle sont-elles des leviers pour le commerce ?
● la réalité augmentée et la réalité virtuelle, le futur des médias sociaux ?
L’objectif de cette thèse a pour but d’ouvrir l’esprit des marques aux potentiels émotionnels que
ces technologies proposent. Elles peuvent être un levier de croissance tout en créant une nouvelle
relation marque/consommateur.
El documento describe el concepto, características, sujetos y obligaciones de las partes involucradas en un contrato de underwriting. El underwriting es un contrato entre una empresa financiera y una sociedad emisora de valores donde la empresa financiera se compromete a financiar, prefinanciar y vender los valores emitidos por la sociedad emisora.
This letter provides a reference for Viktor Filipov who worked as a Senior Support Engineer at Thintech from 2015 to 2016. In this role, Viktor was responsible for supporting 25 clients with Terminal Server Citrix Environments and two multi-tenant hosted environments, as part of a four person team. The letter states that Viktor rose to the challenges of the demanding role quickly and was able to communicate effectively with clients and other team members. The director of engineering at Thintech would re-hire Viktor if given the opportunity.
This document proposes a performance-based contract scheme to retrofit buildings and hotels in the Caribbean with energy efficient technologies. It estimates that a single hotel retrofitted with LED lights, efficient computers/electronics, energy efficient condensers, and solar PV could save 25% in electricity consumption and $105,000 annually. Savings would be allocated to loan repayment, monitoring costs, and lower electricity bills for the hotel. The scheme aims to use early savings to fund additional retrofits each year, decreasing loan amounts over time as more hotels are retrofitted with less upfront capital needed. The criteria for evaluating the scheme's success include achieving the largest overall guaranteed savings, direct savings for buildings, number of buildings retrofitted, and shortest implementation time
Bayesian Model Fusion for Forecasting Civil UnrestParang Saraf
Abstract: With the rapid rise in social media, alternative news sources, and blogs, ordinary citizens have become information producers as much as information consumers. Highly charged prose, images, and videos spread virally, and stoke the embers of social unrest by alerting fellow citizens to relevant happenings and
spurring them into action. We are interested in using Big Data approaches to generate forecasts of civil unrest from open source indicators. The heterogenous nature of data coupled with the rich and diverse origins of civil unrest call for a multi-model approach to such forecasting. We present a modular approach wherein a collection of models use overlapping sources of data to independently forecast protests. Fusion of alerts into one single alert stream becomes a key system informatics problem and we present a statistical framework to accomplish such fusion. Given an alert from one of the numerous models, the decision space
for fusion has two possibilities: (i) release the alert or (ii) suppress the alert. Using a Bayesian decision theoretical framework, we present a fusion approach for releasing or suppressing alerts. The resulting system enables real-time decisions and more importantly tuning of precision and recall. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.
For more information, please visit: http://people.cs.vt.edu/parang/ or contact parang at firstname at cs vt edu
Impact evaluations aim to predict the future, but they are rooted in particular contexts and to what extent they generalize is an open and important question. I founded an organization to systematically collect and synthesize impact evaluation results on a wide variety of interventions in development. These data allow me to answer this and other questions for the rst time using a large data set of studies. I consider several measures of generalizability, discuss the strengths and limitations of each metric, and provide benchmarks based on the data. I use the example of the eect of conditional cash transfers on enrollment rates to show how some of the heterogeneity can be modelled and the eect this can have on the generalizability measures. The predictive power of the model improves over time as more studies are completed. Finally, I show how researchers can
estimate the generalizability of their own study using their own data, even when data from no comparable studies exist.
Read more at: www.hhs.se/site
PROBABILISTIC CREDIT SCORING FOR COHORTS OF BORROWERSAndresz26
This document proposes a methodology for probabilistic credit scoring of cohorts (groups) of borrowers with similar characteristics. It begins by discussing existing credit scoring models that focus on individual applicants. It then outlines a methodology to score groups that considers the diversity within each group and the distribution of default probabilities. The key steps are: 1) estimating default probabilities for individuals using a logit model, 2) estimating distributions of variables for each group, 3) simulating individuals in each group to capture diversity, and 4) incorporating residual variability to account for unobserved factors. This allows ranking groups by risk while addressing uncertainty about a group's composition and risk preferences of decision makers.
Free Printable Snowflake Border - Customize And PrintBrandy Carpenter
The document provides instructions for creating an account and requesting a paper writing service from HelpWriting.net. It is a 5 step process:
1. Create an account by providing a password and email.
2. Complete a 10 minute order form with instructions, sources, deadline and attach a sample if wanting the writer to imitate style.
3. Review bids from writers and choose one based on qualifications, history and feedback and place a deposit.
4. Review the paper and authorize full payment if pleased, or request free revisions.
5. Request multiple revisions to ensure satisfaction, and HelpWriting.net promises original, high quality content or a full refund.
The application of data mining to recommender systems sunsine123
This document discusses the application of data mining techniques to recommender systems. It begins with an introduction to recommender systems and their use of algorithms like collaborative filtering to provide recommendations. It then discusses how data mining can enhance recommender systems, including through clustering, classification, association rule mining, and graph-based techniques. Emerging areas like meta-recommenders, social data mining systems, and temporal recommendation are also covered. The document concludes that data mining algorithms are becoming an important part of generating accurate recommendations across different domains.
HLEG thematic workshop on Economic Insecurity, Andrea Brandolini, presenterStatsCommunications
HLEG thematic workshop on Economic Insecurity, 4 March 2016, New York, United States. More information at: http://oecd/hleg-workshop-on-economic-insecurity-2016
DQ2Patrick QueisneOne of the greatest barriers that the orgaDustiBuckner14
DQ2
Patrick Queisne
One of the greatest barriers that the organization I am at for my practicum has with implementation of evidence-based practice (EBP) is education. Historically, the use of would tactics such as mentorship, online learning modules, in person skills days, and lectures. However, the COVID-19 pandemic forced facilities shift in person educational avenues with an attempt to adapt by using technology. Live streaming videos rapidly became the go to replacement for the in-person class. This was the same approach that was taken by nursing programs across the country to replace clinical time for nursing students. Now there are new graduate nurses entering facilities with little, if any, in person clinical time.
Staff has now realized the opportunity to have flexibility for training as there is no commute time associated with attending virtual sessions. However, as the facility seeks to return to the new normal, in person classes are not well received. The intent of continuing education is to help keep nurses informed of the latest EBP (Fletcher, 2016). Now faced with a lack of staff engagement related to long working and staffing shortages leaves the empty classrooms for in-person education. From an educational standpoint, the first part of developing a plan to determine how individuals in the organization want the information delivered. This involves having open lines of communication between educators for the facility and the staff receiving the education.
References
Fletcher, S. (2016). Nurse education specialist utilizing career coaching to encourage lifelong learning. Journal of Nursing Education and Practice, 6(6), 71-74. doi: 10.5430/jnep.v6n6p71
Assignment Task 2
Respond to one of your colleague’s posts in 125 words response and explain how you might see the implications differently.
Colleague Response
Romel Jimera
Top of Form
For this week's discussion on the relationship between data variability, sample size, and confidence level, I chose the "Size of the Place in 1000s" as my quantifiable variable, utilizing the General Social Survey dataset. The mean Age from that dataset is 49.01. To better appreciate the tradeoff between lowering the risk of our confidence in estimations and increasing precision, I entered a random sample size of 100 and 400 with 90 and 95 percent confidence levels, using IBM SPSS Statistics software.
Table 1
In Table 1, the left table shows a random sample of 100, a mean of 324.90, and a standard error of 121.911. Using a 95% confidence interval (CI), the estimation was only 5% off (Frankfort-Nachmias et al., 2021). Meaning we are 95% confident that the actual average size of the place in 1000s is not less than 83 and not more than 566.8. However, with a 90% confidence level in the right table, all the values remain the same except for the CI (122.48, 527.32). Although the CI width is shorter than the previous one, there is more precision, but the chance of error has increased to 10%. C ...
Sentiment Features based Analysis of Online Reviewsiosrjce
IOSR Journal of Computer Engineering (IOSR-JCE) is a double blind peer reviewed International Journal that provides rapid publication (within a month) of articles in all areas of computer engineering and its applications. The journal welcomes publications of high quality papers on theoretical developments and practical applications in computer technology. Original research papers, state-of-the-art reviews, and high quality technical notes are invited for publications.
This document discusses sentiment analysis of online reviews using a hybrid polarity detection system. It first provides background on sentiment analysis and different levels of analysis (document, sentence, aspect). It then describes related work on techniques like Naive Bayes, maximum entropy, and support vector machines. The hybrid system is described as having three modules: 1) data preprocessing, 2) sentiment feature generation that extracts 14 features, and 3) an SVM classifier. Experimental results on movie, hotel, and mobile phone data show the proposed system with two additional features achieves slightly better accuracy than existing approaches. The document concludes that sentiment-based features may provide promising outcomes for sentiment analysis tasks.
Vulnerable Groups and Communities in The Context of Adaptation and Developmen...Tariq A. Deen
Participants will be taken through the identification and targeting of vulnerable communities, groups and ecosystems at different scales, best available methods and data, best practices, in the context of adaptation and development planning and implementation. It will include introductory presentations on the topic and will engage participants in breakout group discussions.
Vulnerable Groups and Communities in The Context of Adaptation and Developme...NAP Events
This document discusses methods for identifying vulnerable groups and communities in the context of adaptation and development planning. It outlines various definitions of vulnerability and describes common approaches to vulnerability mapping including using geographic information systems and indicators of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. The document also discusses specific methods like poverty mapping using small area estimation and participatory approaches. It emphasizes choosing methods based on objectives, data availability, and analytical capacity. The document concludes that vulnerability assessments are important for targeting limited resources but require balancing technical and qualitative considerations.
Face Construct And Criterion-Related Validity EssayDeb Birch
The document discusses validity and reliability as they relate to psychological assessment tools. It describes different types of validity, including face validity, construct validity, and criterion-related validity. Face validity assesses whether a test appears to measure what it intends to, construct validity examines how well a test measures a theoretical construct, and criterion-related validity determines whether test scores correlate with a criterion measure. The document also discusses reliability and notes that internal consistency and test-retest reliability are two important reliability considerations. Internal consistency ensures items on a test consistently measure the same construct, while test-retest reliability examines consistency of scores over time.
The document discusses improving collaboration within and between organizations. It introduces a Collaboration Maturity Model that provides a scale to describe the nature and efficacy of interactions, from "conflicted" to "coordinated" to "collaborative" to "agile." The model considers factors like information distribution, shared awareness and understanding, and decision rights. The document suggests applying the model to better understand collaboration in situations like remote teams, virtual partnerships, and outsourced work.
Aon FI Risk Advisory - CCAR Variable SelectionEvan Sekeris
Operational risk projections for CCAR pose challenges as the relationships between losses and economic factors are unclear. While established models exist for market and credit risk, the best approach for operational risk is less certain. Banks must use economic scenarios but many operational risk drivers are independent of economic changes. The document discusses whether variable selection should be objective via algorithms or subjective through expert judgment based on economic theory. It acknowledges limitations of both approaches. Regulators are looking for banks to consider both objective and subjective aspects in their models. Hybrid approaches that include multiple techniques like regression analysis, scenario analysis and historical averages may be most appropriate.
This paper examines the "variance premium", which is the difference between the squared VIX index and expected realized variance. The authors show that the variance premium captures attitudes toward economic uncertainty and predicts future stock returns over short horizons. They develop a generalized long-run risks model that generates a time-varying variance premium consistent with market return and risk-free rate levels. The model requires extensions to match the large size, volatility and skewness of the variance premium and its short-term return predictability. Calibrating the model to cash flow and asset pricing targets allows it to generate the variance premium and its return predictability features.
Forecasting operational risk losses for CCAR poses a number of challenges, not least of which is uncertainty about the best methodology for modeling the relationship between a bank’s future losses and the macroeconomic environment.
This document discusses the relevance and implications of forecasting retail deposits. Forecasting retail deposits involves analyzing macroeconomic data to build models that can accurately predict future deposit levels given economic conditions. Accurately forecasting deposits is important for banks to inform strategic planning and decisions around operations, technology, and infrastructure needs. The implications of deposit forecasting are discussed from social and philosophical perspectives, including how forecasting stems from humans' innate desire to understand and prepare for an uncertain future.
Does evidence actually influence policy? What can be done to improve the record?
Presentation by Priya Deshingkar, Research Director of the Migrating out of Poverty RPC
Similar to Dominic Kniveton - Embracing uncertainty (20)
This document outlines a variety of methods that can be used to scope issues broadly, focus on particularities in depth, and link relations and perspectives across contexts. It provides a repertoire of methods that can help appreciate alternative pathways, including interpretive, interactive, and group deliberative styles as well as techniques like critical literature reviews, in-depth case studies, discourse analysis, and participatory approaches.
Coloniality in Transformation: decolonising methods for activist scholarship ...STEPS Centre
Presentation by Andy Stirling to 2021 Transformations to Sustainability conference session on '‘Philosophical Underpinnings’ in decolonizing research methods for transformation towards sustainability', 17th June 2021
Opening up the politics of justification in maths for policy: power and uncer...STEPS Centre
Presentation by Andy Stirling to conference of INET in collaboration with OECD on ‘Forecasting the Future for Sustainable Development: approaches to modelling and the science of prediction’. 16th June 2021
Discussion: The Future of the World is Mobile - Giorgia GiovannettiSTEPS Centre
By Giorgia Giovannetti, University of Firenze and Robert Schuman Centre, EUI. Given at EUI on 10 April 2019.
https://steps-centre.org/event/the-future-of-the-world-is-mobile-what-can-we-learn-from-pastoralists/
Interfacing pastoral movements and modern mobilitiesSTEPS Centre
By Michele Nori, PASTRES (Pastoralism, Uncertainty, Resilience) project. Given at EUI on 10 April 2019.
https://steps-centre.org/event/the-future-of-the-world-is-mobile-what-can-we-learn-from-pastoralists/
Reconceiving migration through the study of pastoral mobilitySTEPS Centre
By Natasha Maru, PASTRES (Pastoralism, Uncertainty, Resilience) project. Given at EUI on 10 April 2019.
https://steps-centre.org/event/the-future-of-the-world-is-mobile-what-can-we-learn-from-pastoralists/
Bringing moral economy into the study of land deals: reflections from MadagascarSTEPS Centre
19 March 2019, Institute of Development Studies
Seminar organised by the Resource Politics and Rural Futures Clusters, in association with the STEPS Centre’s PASTRES project
Speaker: Mathilde Gingembre
https://steps-centre.org/event/steps-seminar-mathilde-gingembre-bringing-moral-economy-into-the-study-of-land-deals-reflections-from-madagascar/
Agency and social-ecological system (SES) pathways: the Transformation Lab in...STEPS Centre
Presentation by J. Mario Siqueiros, February 2019, at a STEPS Seminar at the Institute of Development Studies.
More information: https://steps-centre.org/project/pathways-network/
From controlled transition to caring transformations - StirlingSTEPS Centre
This document discusses the differences between "controlling transitions" and "caring transformations" when addressing issues like climate change. It argues that ideas of control are part of the problem and that controlled transition does not equal real transformation. Caring for transformation instead of control could mean culturing transformation through myriad grassroots actions that challenge power and are driven by solidarity, values and hope rather than singular theories and top-down control. True transformation is shaped by unruly diversity rather than imposed order and expertise.
Systems, change and growth - Huff and BrockSTEPS Centre
Presentation from week 1 of the System Change HIVE that outlines big ideas about the environment and some criticisms of capitalism.
http://systemchangehive.org/
STEPS Annual Lecture 2017: Achim Steiner - Doomed to fail or bound to succeed...STEPS Centre
Achim Steiner, incoming UNDP director, gave the STEPS Annual lecture at the University of Sussex on 15 May 2017. Find out more: https://steps-centre.org/event/steps-annual-lecture-achim-steiner/
Andy Stirling - nexus methods (RGS 2016)STEPS Centre
This document discusses the concept of "nexus thinking" across multiple domains and topics. It makes several key points:
1) Nexus thinking spans across different silos and considers connections between domains like food, water, energy, climate, and development.
2) Framing of nexus issues applies at every level and transcends place, space, and scale. Different framings lead to different understandings and potential solutions.
3) Nexus thinking recognizes the entanglement of objective conditions and subjective actors, and highlights the role of power and politics in knowledge production.
Andy Stirling - STEPS Centre 'Pathways Methods'STEPS Centre
The document outlines the STEPS Centre 'Pathways Methods' for helping appreciate alternative pathways. It summarizes the methods as follows:
1. The methods aim to catalyze more open political space by broadening out discussions beyond incumbent 'pro-innovation' views and opening up consideration of marginalized interests and alternative pathways.
2. The methodology involves engaging actors, exploring narratives, characterizing dynamics, and revealing strategies through a repertoire of participatory and deliberative methods.
3. A case study applying these methods in Kenya found surprising optimism for alternative crops but farmer preference for local maize varieties, showing how the methods can surface plural perspectives on pathways.
This document provides an overview of a presentation given by Andy Stirling on 'Nexus Methods' at the ESRC Methods Festival. It discusses the complex and interconnected nature of issues related to the food-water-energy nexus. It notes that while there are many quantitative and qualitative methods that can be applied to nexus issues, they all involve subjective framings and no single method can capture the full complexity. The presentation advocates a reflexive approach that acknowledges the conditional nature of knowledge and assessment in this domain.
Suresh Rohilla - Climate change and sanitation, water resourcesSTEPS Centre
Workshop on climate change and uncertainty from below and above, Delhi. http://steps-centre.org/2016/blog/climate-change-and-uncertainty-from-above-and-below/
Suraje Dessai - Uncertainty from above and encounters in the middleSTEPS Centre
Workshop on climate change and uncertainty from below and above, Delhi. http://steps-centre.org/2016/blog/climate-change-and-uncertainty-from-above-and-below/
Sumetee Pahwa Gajjar - Uncertainty from withinSTEPS Centre
Workshop on climate change and uncertainty from below and above, Delhi. http://steps-centre.org/2016/blog/climate-change-and-uncertainty-from-above-and-below/
Shibaji Bose - Voices from below - a Photo Voice exploration in Indian sundar...STEPS Centre
Workshop on climate change and uncertainty from below and above, Delhi. http://steps-centre.org/2016/blog/climate-change-and-uncertainty-from-above-and-below/
ESA/ACT Science Coffee: Diego Blas - Gravitational wave detection with orbita...Advanced-Concepts-Team
Presentation in the Science Coffee of the Advanced Concepts Team of the European Space Agency on the 07.06.2024.
Speaker: Diego Blas (IFAE/ICREA)
Title: Gravitational wave detection with orbital motion of Moon and artificial
Abstract:
In this talk I will describe some recent ideas to find gravitational waves from supermassive black holes or of primordial origin by studying their secular effect on the orbital motion of the Moon or satellites that are laser ranged.
Immersive Learning That Works: Research Grounding and Paths ForwardLeonel Morgado
We will metaverse into the essence of immersive learning, into its three dimensions and conceptual models. This approach encompasses elements from teaching methodologies to social involvement, through organizational concerns and technologies. Challenging the perception of learning as knowledge transfer, we introduce a 'Uses, Practices & Strategies' model operationalized by the 'Immersive Learning Brain' and ‘Immersion Cube’ frameworks. This approach offers a comprehensive guide through the intricacies of immersive educational experiences and spotlighting research frontiers, along the immersion dimensions of system, narrative, and agency. Our discourse extends to stakeholders beyond the academic sphere, addressing the interests of technologists, instructional designers, and policymakers. We span various contexts, from formal education to organizational transformation to the new horizon of an AI-pervasive society. This keynote aims to unite the iLRN community in a collaborative journey towards a future where immersive learning research and practice coalesce, paving the way for innovative educational research and practice landscapes.
(June 12, 2024) Webinar: Development of PET theranostics targeting the molecu...Scintica Instrumentation
Targeting Hsp90 and its pathogen Orthologs with Tethered Inhibitors as a Diagnostic and Therapeutic Strategy for cancer and infectious diseases with Dr. Timothy Haystead.
Or: Beyond linear.
Abstract: Equivariant neural networks are neural networks that incorporate symmetries. The nonlinear activation functions in these networks result in interesting nonlinear equivariant maps between simple representations, and motivate the key player of this talk: piecewise linear representation theory.
Disclaimer: No one is perfect, so please mind that there might be mistakes and typos.
dtubbenhauer@gmail.com
Corrected slides: dtubbenhauer.com/talks.html
The binding of cosmological structures by massless topological defectsSérgio Sacani
Assuming spherical symmetry and weak field, it is shown that if one solves the Poisson equation or the Einstein field
equations sourced by a topological defect, i.e. a singularity of a very specific form, the result is a localized gravitational
field capable of driving flat rotation (i.e. Keplerian circular orbits at a constant speed for all radii) of test masses on a thin
spherical shell without any underlying mass. Moreover, a large-scale structure which exploits this solution by assembling
concentrically a number of such topological defects can establish a flat stellar or galactic rotation curve, and can also deflect
light in the same manner as an equipotential (isothermal) sphere. Thus, the need for dark matter or modified gravity theory is
mitigated, at least in part.
Sharlene Leurig - Enabling Onsite Water Use with Net Zero Water
Dominic Kniveton - Embracing uncertainty
1. “I spent a lot of years trying to outrun or outsmart vulnerability by making things certain and definite, black and white, good and
bad. My inability to lean into the discomfort of vulnerability limited the fullness of those important experiences that are wrought
with uncertainty: Love, belonging, trust, joy, and creativity to name a few.” Brene Brown
2. The Uncertainty Principle prohibits accuracy. Therefore, the initial situation of a
complex system can not be accurately determined, and the evolution of a
complex system can therefore not be accurately predicted.
3. Fractional Uncertainty means the ratio of the model spread to the projected temperature change
(against a 1971-2000 mean):
Hawkins and Sutton 2009
6. Complex adaptive systems consist of nested hierarchies, multiplicity of cross-
scale interactions and feedback loops between different hierarchical levels
implying a high degree of complexity, emergence and non-linear behaviour that
predictive equilibrium models fail to calculate (Van den Bergh and Gowdy, 2003)
7. Flexible, robust and low regrets responses
The 2008 PRESAO forecast: Probability forecast for precipitation over July-August-September
(source: African Center for Meteorological Applications to Development (ACMAD), Seasonal
forecast of precipitation bulletin for West Africa, Chad and Cameroon for July-August-
September 2008).
8. Heuristic decision making
• Commercial retailers need to distinguish those customers who are likely to purchase again in a
given time frame (active customers) from those who are not (inactive customers). These
companies have a large database containing the amount, kind, and date of every customer’s
previous purchases. Based on this information, how can an executive predict which customers will
be active in the future? Statistically sophisticated academics might opt for a Bayesian analysis,
regression analysis, or some other optimizing strategy to predict the probability that a customer
with a given purchase history is active at some future time. Researchers in business share this
vision, and the state-of-the-art approach is the Pareto/NBD model (negative binomial
distribution; Schmittlein & Peterson 1994). This model assumes that purchases follow a Poisson
process with a purchase parameter λ, that customer lifetimes follow an exponential distribution
with a dropout rate parameter μ, and that, across customers, purchase and dropout rates are
distributed according to a gamma distribution.
• However, most managers in Europe, North America, Japan, Brazil, and India rely on “intuitive”
heuristics rather than on this or similar statistical forecasting methods (Parikh 1994). W¨ubben &
Wangenheim (2008) reported that experienced managers use a simple recency-of-last-purchase
rule:
• Hiatus heuristic: If a customer has not purchased within a certain number of months (the hiatus),
the customer is classified as inactive; otherwise, the customer is classified as active.