The project will identify actions that could be taken within the next 10 years to reduce the impacts of disasters arising from hazards up to 2040. It will call on industry and academic expertise from the UK and explore how emerging science and technology might improve our ability to prepare for and respond to these impacts.
Crisis Management in Service Organizations: Will the New Habits and Practices...Elissar Toufaily
In this research seminar, I discuss the Covid-19 Shock and its accelerations globally and in the UAE, before presenting the results of a qualitative research, through semi-structured interviews done with 47 managers and decision-makers in the service sector. In this research, I explore: 1/ the impact of Covid-19 on organizations and the service industry, 2/ the strategies and practices adopted for recovery; 3/ the challenges and facilitators of recovery, 4/the new normal for organizations and consumers, before finalizing with the lessons and opportunities that we can learn from the crisis.
Running head RISK MANAGEMENT PLAN 1RISK MANAGE.docxtoltonkendal
Running head: RISK MANAGEMENT PLAN 1
RISK MANAGEMENT PLAN 2
Risk Management Plan
Name
Institution
SCOPE
This risk management plan illustrates how risk management will be organized and carried out on the project to make sure risks are dealt with and controlled at acceptable levels. Risks in this project can be cannot be totally eradicated (Assessment, 2016).
Tasks
Costs ($)
Starting date
(2017)
End date
(2017)
Risk identification
10,000
August/ 1
August/31
Risk assessment
15000
September/1
September/30
Risk register
5000
October/1
October/ 30
Risk analysis
20000
November/1
November/14
Risk response planning
5000
November/15
November/30
Mitigation actions to consider
5000
December/ 1
December/14
Risk related to time, cost or scope
5000
December/ 15
December/ 31
Risk monitoring control
25000
January/1/018
January/14/ 018
Total
90000
January/ 15/018
January/31
Deliverables
· Risk Identification
· Analyzing the underlying causes of a risk
· Assign a probability of occurrence to every lowest level causes, and calculate the possibility of every next higher risk by continuing up the tree until the highest probability is calculated.
· Identify the possible loss
· Enter the Prob(UO) and Loss(UO) values on the Risk Log.
· Sort the spreadsheet by descending order of Risk Exposure.
Risk mitigation
OBJECTIVES
· To minimize the effect of unplanned incidents on the project by identifying as well as addressing possible risks before substantial negative results occur.
· The risk assessment is to become a subset of the Project Management Plan.
· To identify all activities based on the following five procedures to make sure they suit the functions in question
PROJECT SIZE
· Risk Reviews and Reporting
· Probability and Impacts of the Risk Management Plan
· The size of the project team 11 people
· The project will elapse after 6 months
· Variation in the timeframe to be tolerated-schedule is flexible
· Problem is easily understood and solution is readily attainable
· Total cost of the project less than $100,000
· Level of change to be implemented-impacts many business units
RISK TOOLS AND TECHNIQUES
Qualitative Risk Analysis
After possible risks have been detected and developed, the next phase is to assess them. This can be quite challenging if there are many risks (Assessment, 2016). Hence the first step is to filter the risks in order to determine which are the potential risks and which are important.
Qualitative risk techniques include the following:
The green-light or red-light rating is a subjective evaluation of whether risk will have key impact on the project. The risks are then divided into 3 groups, one is “green”, one is “yellow’ and finally one is “red.” The threshold for these classes can be predicated on the possibility of occurrence, the quality of impact, the time impact, the cost impact or the mixture of these (Assessment, 2016). Usually, red risks are the ones that are likely to happen ...
Multi-layered comprehensive climate risk management (CRM) in Austria – connec...OECD Governance
Investing in infrastructure: Costs, benefits and effectiveness of disaster risk reduction measures.
Presentation made by:
- Thomas Schinko, International Institute for
Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
- Markus Leitner, Environment Agency Austria (EAA)
The project will identify actions that could be taken within the next 10 years to reduce the impacts of disasters arising from hazards up to 2040. It will call on industry and academic expertise from the UK and explore how emerging science and technology might improve our ability to prepare for and respond to these impacts.
Crisis Management in Service Organizations: Will the New Habits and Practices...Elissar Toufaily
In this research seminar, I discuss the Covid-19 Shock and its accelerations globally and in the UAE, before presenting the results of a qualitative research, through semi-structured interviews done with 47 managers and decision-makers in the service sector. In this research, I explore: 1/ the impact of Covid-19 on organizations and the service industry, 2/ the strategies and practices adopted for recovery; 3/ the challenges and facilitators of recovery, 4/the new normal for organizations and consumers, before finalizing with the lessons and opportunities that we can learn from the crisis.
Running head RISK MANAGEMENT PLAN 1RISK MANAGE.docxtoltonkendal
Running head: RISK MANAGEMENT PLAN 1
RISK MANAGEMENT PLAN 2
Risk Management Plan
Name
Institution
SCOPE
This risk management plan illustrates how risk management will be organized and carried out on the project to make sure risks are dealt with and controlled at acceptable levels. Risks in this project can be cannot be totally eradicated (Assessment, 2016).
Tasks
Costs ($)
Starting date
(2017)
End date
(2017)
Risk identification
10,000
August/ 1
August/31
Risk assessment
15000
September/1
September/30
Risk register
5000
October/1
October/ 30
Risk analysis
20000
November/1
November/14
Risk response planning
5000
November/15
November/30
Mitigation actions to consider
5000
December/ 1
December/14
Risk related to time, cost or scope
5000
December/ 15
December/ 31
Risk monitoring control
25000
January/1/018
January/14/ 018
Total
90000
January/ 15/018
January/31
Deliverables
· Risk Identification
· Analyzing the underlying causes of a risk
· Assign a probability of occurrence to every lowest level causes, and calculate the possibility of every next higher risk by continuing up the tree until the highest probability is calculated.
· Identify the possible loss
· Enter the Prob(UO) and Loss(UO) values on the Risk Log.
· Sort the spreadsheet by descending order of Risk Exposure.
Risk mitigation
OBJECTIVES
· To minimize the effect of unplanned incidents on the project by identifying as well as addressing possible risks before substantial negative results occur.
· The risk assessment is to become a subset of the Project Management Plan.
· To identify all activities based on the following five procedures to make sure they suit the functions in question
PROJECT SIZE
· Risk Reviews and Reporting
· Probability and Impacts of the Risk Management Plan
· The size of the project team 11 people
· The project will elapse after 6 months
· Variation in the timeframe to be tolerated-schedule is flexible
· Problem is easily understood and solution is readily attainable
· Total cost of the project less than $100,000
· Level of change to be implemented-impacts many business units
RISK TOOLS AND TECHNIQUES
Qualitative Risk Analysis
After possible risks have been detected and developed, the next phase is to assess them. This can be quite challenging if there are many risks (Assessment, 2016). Hence the first step is to filter the risks in order to determine which are the potential risks and which are important.
Qualitative risk techniques include the following:
The green-light or red-light rating is a subjective evaluation of whether risk will have key impact on the project. The risks are then divided into 3 groups, one is “green”, one is “yellow’ and finally one is “red.” The threshold for these classes can be predicated on the possibility of occurrence, the quality of impact, the time impact, the cost impact or the mixture of these (Assessment, 2016). Usually, red risks are the ones that are likely to happen ...
Multi-layered comprehensive climate risk management (CRM) in Austria – connec...OECD Governance
Investing in infrastructure: Costs, benefits and effectiveness of disaster risk reduction measures.
Presentation made by:
- Thomas Schinko, International Institute for
Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
- Markus Leitner, Environment Agency Austria (EAA)
Risk and Procurement ManagementDr Paul BaguleyClass Slides.docxlillie234567
Risk and Procurement Management
Dr Paul Baguley
Class Slides
Contents
Definition of Risk
Context of Projects
Risk Management Process
Risk Id
Risk Assessment
Risk Evaluation
Cost Risk
Monte-Carlo Simulation
Management Reserve and Contingency
Risk Management by Procurement
Examples of Contracts to Manage Risk
Learning Objectives
Define Project Risk and identify stages of project risk management
Understand Risk Response Strategy Selection process using risk matrix
Identify characteristics of procurement routes and map risk allocation amongst project stakeholders
Appreciate a more risk informed procurement route selection
What makes project management a risky business
Organisations take risks to compete through projects making projects risky
Indeed risk appetite is the term used to describe the amount of risk an organisation is willing to take
And risk tolerance is the amount of risk an organisation can absorb
Risk is an important subject in APM BoK7 and PMBoK Guide (Chapter 11)
Institute of risk management; the Orange Book from the UK Gov
Communication between stakeholders in the project, suppliers and customer
VUCA (Volatility Uncertainty Complexity Ambiguity) environment
Risks in Projects
https://www.pmi.org/learning/library/top-50-projects-sydney-opera-house-11757
Lack of process and
Large budget over run
Safety regulations
O Ring
Safety disaster
Case: impact of culture on risk
The Nimrod Accident
Case: the conspiracy of optimism
Optimism bias is a known phenomenon which has been described as a psychological factor in estimators. In the defence industry it is recognised there is political pressure for projects to deliver more and cost less.
Activity: What projects do you know failed?
What projects do you know from your own experience which failed in some way and how did they fail? For example “Potters Bar safety disaster”
Definition of Risk and Uncertainty
Before ISO 31000 a working definition of risk was an event that may or may not happen
Uncertainty is variation in something that has happened
For example a machine breakdown may or may not happen
Schedule delay is variation in the delay schedule in terms of time
Risk is defined as an uncertain event or set of circumstances, that should it occur, will have an effect on achievement of one or more objectives, by APM Body of Knowledge 2012
ISO 31000 (2018) definition of risk
ISO 31000 defines risk as the effect of uncertainty on project objectives
Note 1 to entry: an effect is a deviation from the expected. It can be positive, negative or both, and can address, create or result in opportunities and threats
Note 2 to entry: Objectives can have different aspects and categories, and can be applied at different levels
Note 3 to entry: Risk is usually expressed in terms of risk sources, potential events, their consequences and their likelihood
Project objectives are influenced by the iron triangle and trade-off space between cost, quality and time
This means that cost ris.
Every year, the Allianz Risk Barometer identifies the most important corporate perils for the next 12 months and beyond, based on the insight of more than 2,700 risk management experts from 92 countries and territories. What are the top business risks for 2021?
This is the comprehensive PPT on regression analysis. It covers the methods of identifying IV, DV, mediator, and moderators. How to interpreter using the parameters, R square, T-test. differentiation between linear and non-lienar regression
Resilience of infrastructure is moving up the policy agenda, according to a report published this year by the UK’s National Infrastructure Commission (NIC). The NIC considers resilience
to be characterised by an ability to ‘Anticipate, Resist, Absorb, Recover, Adapt and Transform’. Dr Rupert Booth, Oxera Economic Adviser, examines the first element—‘Anticipate’. He considers the role of the economist in working with executives on the analysis and treatment of risk as the first step in creating a resilience strategy.
This presentation was made by Andrew BLAZEY, OECD, at the 15th Annual Meeting of OECD-CESEE Senior Budget Officials held in Minsk, Belarus, on 4-5 July 2019
This presentation was made by Delphine Moretti, OECD, at the 40th OECD Senior Budget Officials (SBO) meeting held in Tallinn, Estonia, on 5-6 June 2019
Disaster PlansThe SNS is a pivotal tool in the event of a disa.docxduketjoy27252
Disaster Plans
The SNS is a pivotal tool in the event of a disaster.
Using the Scholarly Library or the Internet, research SNS. Based on your understanding, respond to the following:
· List and explain the types of items a community hospital will require and seek from the SNS in the event of a disaster.
· List and explain at least two concerns you may have when forced to rely on this facility.
· During the creation of disaster plans, it is common and essential that neighboring hospitals work together. List and explain some of the problems that may arise from a disaster plan which may be ten years old and involved all of the local community hospitals at the time it was originally designed.
NOTES FROM CLASS
Disaster planning is planning for the mitigation of the most likely, or most destructive, events based on some rational thought process. Note that this approach recognizes and accepts that it is impossible to plan for every contingency.
The simplest technique for prioritizing between possibility and probability based on threats and vulnerability is to use a matrix comparing the probability of a particular threat occurring. This is then weighed against a similar matrix comparing the potential threat with the observed vulnerabilities.
Differently put, what is the possibility of something happening and if it does, what impact will it have?
Since the attacks of 9/11, the anthrax attack in Washington, DC, and the sniper shootings in 2002, disaster planning in the United States has changed. In the past, hospitals planned for disasters involving mass casualty such as, a plane crash or hazardous material spill. Now hospitals must contend with the idea that they could be the primary targets. They must also realize that in the event of a biohazard attack, they may be the point at which the outbreak is first recognized. They may be the first contaminants.
You must also position your plan from the perspective of both an external bioterrorism attack as well as an internal bioterrorism attack. Your approach, response priorities, and staff involved may be very different between the two types of attack.
Hospitals have traditionally been designed and operated to be open, welcoming places. This would no longer be desirable. Facility hardening and personnel security are now bywords for disaster planning. Hospitals must decide who is to be allowed inside the facility, and who is to be kept out. At the same time, hospitals must be sensitive to confidential medical information being mishandled under the terms of Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act (HIPAA) and understand that a cyber-attack could be just as dangerous as a bioterrorist attack.
The emergency department may be the first place where victims of a bioterrorist attack are received and the attack is first identified. Hospital staff, especially emergency room staff, is likely to have been exposed and may then have to be quarantined and taken out of commission.
The hospital is.
The APM Risk SIG presented a Quantitative Risk Analysis event on 11th February 2016 that provided perspectives across the project stakeholder spectrum, from client decision-makers to risk analysts and consultants. Dr David Hillson, The Risk Doctor, spoke about assessing overall project risk with quantitative risk analysis.
Risk and Procurement ManagementDr Paul BaguleyClass Slides.docxlillie234567
Risk and Procurement Management
Dr Paul Baguley
Class Slides
Contents
Definition of Risk
Context of Projects
Risk Management Process
Risk Id
Risk Assessment
Risk Evaluation
Cost Risk
Monte-Carlo Simulation
Management Reserve and Contingency
Risk Management by Procurement
Examples of Contracts to Manage Risk
Learning Objectives
Define Project Risk and identify stages of project risk management
Understand Risk Response Strategy Selection process using risk matrix
Identify characteristics of procurement routes and map risk allocation amongst project stakeholders
Appreciate a more risk informed procurement route selection
What makes project management a risky business
Organisations take risks to compete through projects making projects risky
Indeed risk appetite is the term used to describe the amount of risk an organisation is willing to take
And risk tolerance is the amount of risk an organisation can absorb
Risk is an important subject in APM BoK7 and PMBoK Guide (Chapter 11)
Institute of risk management; the Orange Book from the UK Gov
Communication between stakeholders in the project, suppliers and customer
VUCA (Volatility Uncertainty Complexity Ambiguity) environment
Risks in Projects
https://www.pmi.org/learning/library/top-50-projects-sydney-opera-house-11757
Lack of process and
Large budget over run
Safety regulations
O Ring
Safety disaster
Case: impact of culture on risk
The Nimrod Accident
Case: the conspiracy of optimism
Optimism bias is a known phenomenon which has been described as a psychological factor in estimators. In the defence industry it is recognised there is political pressure for projects to deliver more and cost less.
Activity: What projects do you know failed?
What projects do you know from your own experience which failed in some way and how did they fail? For example “Potters Bar safety disaster”
Definition of Risk and Uncertainty
Before ISO 31000 a working definition of risk was an event that may or may not happen
Uncertainty is variation in something that has happened
For example a machine breakdown may or may not happen
Schedule delay is variation in the delay schedule in terms of time
Risk is defined as an uncertain event or set of circumstances, that should it occur, will have an effect on achievement of one or more objectives, by APM Body of Knowledge 2012
ISO 31000 (2018) definition of risk
ISO 31000 defines risk as the effect of uncertainty on project objectives
Note 1 to entry: an effect is a deviation from the expected. It can be positive, negative or both, and can address, create or result in opportunities and threats
Note 2 to entry: Objectives can have different aspects and categories, and can be applied at different levels
Note 3 to entry: Risk is usually expressed in terms of risk sources, potential events, their consequences and their likelihood
Project objectives are influenced by the iron triangle and trade-off space between cost, quality and time
This means that cost ris.
Every year, the Allianz Risk Barometer identifies the most important corporate perils for the next 12 months and beyond, based on the insight of more than 2,700 risk management experts from 92 countries and territories. What are the top business risks for 2021?
This is the comprehensive PPT on regression analysis. It covers the methods of identifying IV, DV, mediator, and moderators. How to interpreter using the parameters, R square, T-test. differentiation between linear and non-lienar regression
Resilience of infrastructure is moving up the policy agenda, according to a report published this year by the UK’s National Infrastructure Commission (NIC). The NIC considers resilience
to be characterised by an ability to ‘Anticipate, Resist, Absorb, Recover, Adapt and Transform’. Dr Rupert Booth, Oxera Economic Adviser, examines the first element—‘Anticipate’. He considers the role of the economist in working with executives on the analysis and treatment of risk as the first step in creating a resilience strategy.
This presentation was made by Andrew BLAZEY, OECD, at the 15th Annual Meeting of OECD-CESEE Senior Budget Officials held in Minsk, Belarus, on 4-5 July 2019
This presentation was made by Delphine Moretti, OECD, at the 40th OECD Senior Budget Officials (SBO) meeting held in Tallinn, Estonia, on 5-6 June 2019
Disaster PlansThe SNS is a pivotal tool in the event of a disa.docxduketjoy27252
Disaster Plans
The SNS is a pivotal tool in the event of a disaster.
Using the Scholarly Library or the Internet, research SNS. Based on your understanding, respond to the following:
· List and explain the types of items a community hospital will require and seek from the SNS in the event of a disaster.
· List and explain at least two concerns you may have when forced to rely on this facility.
· During the creation of disaster plans, it is common and essential that neighboring hospitals work together. List and explain some of the problems that may arise from a disaster plan which may be ten years old and involved all of the local community hospitals at the time it was originally designed.
NOTES FROM CLASS
Disaster planning is planning for the mitigation of the most likely, or most destructive, events based on some rational thought process. Note that this approach recognizes and accepts that it is impossible to plan for every contingency.
The simplest technique for prioritizing between possibility and probability based on threats and vulnerability is to use a matrix comparing the probability of a particular threat occurring. This is then weighed against a similar matrix comparing the potential threat with the observed vulnerabilities.
Differently put, what is the possibility of something happening and if it does, what impact will it have?
Since the attacks of 9/11, the anthrax attack in Washington, DC, and the sniper shootings in 2002, disaster planning in the United States has changed. In the past, hospitals planned for disasters involving mass casualty such as, a plane crash or hazardous material spill. Now hospitals must contend with the idea that they could be the primary targets. They must also realize that in the event of a biohazard attack, they may be the point at which the outbreak is first recognized. They may be the first contaminants.
You must also position your plan from the perspective of both an external bioterrorism attack as well as an internal bioterrorism attack. Your approach, response priorities, and staff involved may be very different between the two types of attack.
Hospitals have traditionally been designed and operated to be open, welcoming places. This would no longer be desirable. Facility hardening and personnel security are now bywords for disaster planning. Hospitals must decide who is to be allowed inside the facility, and who is to be kept out. At the same time, hospitals must be sensitive to confidential medical information being mishandled under the terms of Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act (HIPAA) and understand that a cyber-attack could be just as dangerous as a bioterrorist attack.
The emergency department may be the first place where victims of a bioterrorist attack are received and the attack is first identified. Hospital staff, especially emergency room staff, is likely to have been exposed and may then have to be quarantined and taken out of commission.
The hospital is.
The APM Risk SIG presented a Quantitative Risk Analysis event on 11th February 2016 that provided perspectives across the project stakeholder spectrum, from client decision-makers to risk analysts and consultants. Dr David Hillson, The Risk Doctor, spoke about assessing overall project risk with quantitative risk analysis.
Do height and BMI affect human capital formation? Natural experimental evidence from DNA. CHE seminar presentation by Neil Davies, University of Bristol 12 June 2020
Healthy Minds: A Randomised Controlled Trial to Evaluate PHSE Curriculum Deve...cheweb1
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Baker what to do when people disagree che york seminar jan 2019 v2cheweb1
Public values, plurality and health care resource allocation: What should we do when people disagree? (..and should economists care about reasons as well as choices?) CHE Seminar 21 January 2019
Pulmonary Thromboembolism - etilogy, types, medical- Surgical and nursing man...VarunMahajani
Disruption of blood supply to lung alveoli due to blockage of one or more pulmonary blood vessels is called as Pulmonary thromboembolism. In this presentation we will discuss its causes, types and its management in depth.
TEST BANK for Operations Management, 14th Edition by William J. Stevenson, Ve...kevinkariuki227
TEST BANK for Operations Management, 14th Edition by William J. Stevenson, Verified Chapters 1 - 19, Complete Newest Version.pdf
TEST BANK for Operations Management, 14th Edition by William J. Stevenson, Verified Chapters 1 - 19, Complete Newest Version.pdf
Tom Selleck Health: A Comprehensive Look at the Iconic Actor’s Wellness Journeygreendigital
Tom Selleck, an enduring figure in Hollywood. has captivated audiences for decades with his rugged charm, iconic moustache. and memorable roles in television and film. From his breakout role as Thomas Magnum in Magnum P.I. to his current portrayal of Frank Reagan in Blue Bloods. Selleck's career has spanned over 50 years. But beyond his professional achievements. fans have often been curious about Tom Selleck Health. especially as he has aged in the public eye.
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Introduction
Many have been interested in Tom Selleck health. not only because of his enduring presence on screen but also because of the challenges. and lifestyle choices he has faced and made over the years. This article delves into the various aspects of Tom Selleck health. exploring his fitness regimen, diet, mental health. and the challenges he has encountered as he ages. We'll look at how he maintains his well-being. the health issues he has faced, and his approach to ageing .
Early Life and Career
Childhood and Athletic Beginnings
Tom Selleck was born on January 29, 1945, in Detroit, Michigan, and grew up in Sherman Oaks, California. From an early age, he was involved in sports, particularly basketball. which played a significant role in his physical development. His athletic pursuits continued into college. where he attended the University of Southern California (USC) on a basketball scholarship. This early involvement in sports laid a strong foundation for his physical health and disciplined lifestyle.
Transition to Acting
Selleck's transition from an athlete to an actor came with its physical demands. His first significant role in "Magnum P.I." required him to perform various stunts and maintain a fit appearance. This role, which he played from 1980 to 1988. necessitated a rigorous fitness routine to meet the show's demands. setting the stage for his long-term commitment to health and wellness.
Fitness Regimen
Workout Routine
Tom Selleck health and fitness regimen has evolved. adapting to his changing roles and age. During his "Magnum, P.I." days. Selleck's workouts were intense and focused on building and maintaining muscle mass. His routine included weightlifting, cardiovascular exercises. and specific training for the stunts he performed on the show.
Selleck adjusted his fitness routine as he aged to suit his body's needs. Today, his workouts focus on maintaining flexibility, strength, and cardiovascular health. He incorporates low-impact exercises such as swimming, walking, and light weightlifting. This balanced approach helps him stay fit without putting undue strain on his joints and muscles.
Importance of Flexibility and Mobility
In recent years, Selleck has emphasized the importance of flexibility and mobility in his fitness regimen. Understanding the natural decline in muscle mass and joint flexibility with age. he includes stretching and yoga in his routine. These practices help prevent injuries, improve posture, and maintain mobilit
Ozempic: Preoperative Management of Patients on GLP-1 Receptor Agonists Saeid Safari
Preoperative Management of Patients on GLP-1 Receptor Agonists like Ozempic and Semiglutide
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NYSORA Guideline
2 Case Reports of Gastric Ultrasound
Prix Galien International 2024 Forum ProgramLevi Shapiro
June 20, 2024, Prix Galien International and Jerusalem Ethics Forum in ROME. Detailed agenda including panels:
- ADVANCES IN CARDIOLOGY: A NEW PARADIGM IS COMING
- WOMEN’S HEALTH: FERTILITY PRESERVATION
- WHAT’S NEW IN THE TREATMENT OF INFECTIOUS,
ONCOLOGICAL AND INFLAMMATORY SKIN DISEASES?
- ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE AND ETHICS
- GENE THERAPY
- BEYOND BORDERS: GLOBAL INITIATIVES FOR DEMOCRATIZING LIFE SCIENCE TECHNOLOGIES AND PROMOTING ACCESS TO HEALTHCARE
- ETHICAL CHALLENGES IN LIFE SCIENCES
- Prix Galien International Awards Ceremony
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE IN HEALTHCARE.pdfAnujkumaranit
Artificial intelligence (AI) refers to the simulation of human intelligence processes by machines, especially computer systems. It encompasses tasks such as learning, reasoning, problem-solving, perception, and language understanding. AI technologies are revolutionizing various fields, from healthcare to finance, by enabling machines to perform tasks that typically require human intelligence.
Anti ulcer drugs and their Advance pharmacology ||
Anti-ulcer drugs are medications used to prevent and treat ulcers in the stomach and upper part of the small intestine (duodenal ulcers). These ulcers are often caused by an imbalance between stomach acid and the mucosal lining, which protects the stomach lining.
||Scope: Overview of various classes of anti-ulcer drugs, their mechanisms of action, indications, side effects, and clinical considerations.
Explore natural remedies for syphilis treatment in Singapore. Discover alternative therapies, herbal remedies, and lifestyle changes that may complement conventional treatments. Learn about holistic approaches to managing syphilis symptoms and supporting overall health.
These simplified slides by Dr. Sidra Arshad present an overview of the non-respiratory functions of the respiratory tract.
Learning objectives:
1. Enlist the non-respiratory functions of the respiratory tract
2. Briefly explain how these functions are carried out
3. Discuss the significance of dead space
4. Differentiate between minute ventilation and alveolar ventilation
5. Describe the cough and sneeze reflexes
Study Resources:
1. Chapter 39, Guyton and Hall Textbook of Medical Physiology, 14th edition
2. Chapter 34, Ganong’s Review of Medical Physiology, 26th edition
3. Chapter 17, Human Physiology by Lauralee Sherwood, 9th edition
4. Non-respiratory functions of the lungs https://academic.oup.com/bjaed/article/13/3/98/278874
Ocular injury ppt Upendra pal optometrist upums saifai etawah
Discounting future healthcare costs and benefits (part 2)
1. Catastrophic risks and the value of health projects
Mark Freeman
Centre for Health Economics, York
7th December 2017
Mark Freeman (University of York) Risk & Valuation December 2017 1 / 20
2. What is appropriate for valuing healthcare in LMICs?
Risk matters
Macroeconomic risk has a different valuation implication
(precautionary saving) than project uncertainty (risk premium)
Risk should not be measured by standard deviation alone. Higher
moments matter
Low probability, but potentially catastrophic, economic outcomes can
significantly influence valuations
Risk premiums can be negative, increasing healthcare project
valuation
National or international perspective?
Mark Freeman (University of York) Risk & Valuation December 2017 2 / 20
3. Risk-free or risk-adjusted discounting?
Risk-free discounting
Many governments value all social projects using the simple Ramsey rule
(e.g. UK for horizons < 30 years). Based on the Arrow-Lind theorem
Risk-adjusted discounting
Others (e.g. French, Dutch and Norwegian), explicitly allow for risk in
valuation, as project benefits generally relate to the overall
macro-economy (non-zero ‘beta’).
Central ground
Some argue that risk premiums are too small to concern us. The US
discounts at 7% and 3% (2.5%, 3% & 5% climate change, 3% health).
Mark Freeman (University of York) Risk & Valuation December 2017 3 / 20
4. Stylistic example
Binomial process for consumption
Current aggregate consumption c0 = $1, 000. Consumption in 10 years of
cu (probability π) or cd (probability 1 − π).
Parameterizing
We set cu, cd and π so that future (10-year) consumption has an
expectation of $1,200 with a standard deviation of $300.
Vary π, let the mean and standard deviation determine cu and cd .
Mark Freeman (University of York) Risk & Valuation December 2017 4 / 20
5. The consumption process
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Futureconsumption
Probability of being in the up state
Consumption in the up state
Consumption in the down state
Low probability of severe
consumption catastrophe
Mark Freeman (University of York) Risk & Valuation December 2017 5 / 20
6. An LMIC healthcare project
Another binomial process
Healthcare project with monetized benefit of bu or bd in ten years:
Pro-cyclical: bu occurs iff cu occurs; probability π
Counter-cyclical: bu occurs iff cd occurs; probability 1 − π
Also look at risk-free and acyclical projects.
Parameterizing
bu and bd set so the expected benefit is $2, with standard deviation to $1.
They depend on π.
Mark Freeman (University of York) Risk & Valuation December 2017 6 / 20
7. Cyclical benefits
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Benefit
Probability of being in the up state
benefit in up state (pro-cyclical)
benefit in down state (pro-cyclical)
Mark Freeman (University of York) Risk & Valuation December 2017 7 / 20
8. Counter-cyclical benefits - Mirror image
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Benefit
Probability of being in the up state
benefit in up state (counter-cyclical)
benefit in down state (counter-cyclical)
Low probability of
consumption catastrophe
associated with high project
benefits
Mark Freeman (University of York) Risk & Valuation December 2017 8 / 20
9. Valuing the healthcare project
Equilibrium
Social planner gets time separable utility e−ρtU(ct) from aggregate
consumption. In equilibrium, the present value, p, of the project:
U(c0 − p) + e−ρt
E[U(ct + b)] = U(c0) + e−ρt
E[U(ct)]
The utility function
Power utility with relative risk aversion = 2, rate of pure time preference
ρ = 1%.
Mark Freeman (University of York) Risk & Valuation December 2017 9 / 20
10. Present value of the risk-free project
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Presentvalueoftheproject
Probability of being in the up state
PV (risk-free)
PV (risk-free, certain consumption)
Precautionary effect increases
price of risk-free projects
(extended Ramsey Rule)
Precautionary effect gets stronger
with catastrophic consumption
outcomes (Rietz 1988, Barro 2006 &
2009, Gabaix 2012)
Mark Freeman (University of York) Risk & Valuation December 2017 10 / 20
11. Present value of the pro-cyclical & acyclical projects
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Presentvalueoftheproject
Probability of being in the up state
PV (pro-cyclical)
PV (independent)
PV (risk-free)
Positive (zero) risk premium for
positive (zero) beta healthcare
project (CCAPM)
Risk premium high in the presence
of catastrophic risk (Rietz, 1988;
Barro 2006 & 2009; Gabaix 2012)
High sensitivity of valuation to precise
likelihood and outcome of catastrophe
(Martin, 2013; Gollier, 2016)
Mark Freeman (University of York) Risk & Valuation December 2017 11 / 20
12. Present value of the counter-cyclical project
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Presentvalueoftheproject
Probability of being in the up state
PV (counter-cyclical)
PV (risk-free)
Counter-cyclical projects more
highly priced than risk-free
assets (CCAPM)
Projects with strong payoffs in
catastrophic states are very highly
valued (e.g. Weitzman 2007 &
2009, Dietz 2011, Barro 2013,
Pindyck 2013). Discount rate here
negative.
Mark Freeman (University of York) Risk & Valuation December 2017 12 / 20
13. A counter-cyclical healthcare project
Healthcare projects in LMICs to protect against economic collapse
Consider an LMIC that, in the event of an economic collapse (low
probability event), expects a healthcare crisis (famine, malaria outbreak,
etc.).
Project to protect against this outcome
Since this project’s benefits are greatest in catastrophic states, it has very
high value.
Mark Freeman (University of York) Risk & Valuation December 2017 13 / 20
14. What is the ‘beta’ of a healthcare project
National or international perspective
The probability of catastrophic economic outcomes, and the relationship
with healthcare projects, within LMICs are greater/stronger on a national
than international perspective.
Proper international support would help mitigate national effects
Therefore, when undertaking these valuations, an assessment needs to be
made of the international policy response to a disaster
Mark Freeman (University of York) Risk & Valuation December 2017 14 / 20
15. Risk of future pandemic
Uncertain future risk
The number of deaths (as % population), N, in a future pandemic is
unknown. Both the policy maker and health expert think N is lognormally
distributed.
Different parameter values
E[N] = m for the policy maker and E[N] = M > m for the expert.
Var[N] = s2 for the policy maker and Var[N] = S2 for the expert.
Mark Freeman (University of York) Risk & Valuation December 2017 15 / 20
16. How does the policy maker respond to the expert advice
Bayesian learning
The policy maker hears the opinion of the expert and rationally Bayesian
updates her beliefs (e.g., French 1985; Lindley 1985; Genest and Zidek
1986).
Bayesian posterior
The Bayesian posterior of the expert is also lognormally distributed in N.
The mean and variance of this distribution, m , s 2 are known in closed
form as functions of m, M, s, S (messy!)
Mark Freeman (University of York) Risk & Valuation December 2017 16 / 20
17. Example
m = 2%, s = 2%, M = 3.2%, S = 2%. Then m = 2.46% and s = 1.23%
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
ProbabilityDensityFunction
N
Prior
Consensus
Posterior
Mark Freeman (University of York) Risk & Valuation December 2017 17 / 20
18. Economic damages
Consumption drops from ct to (1 − D(N))ct at some future time t in the
event of a pandemic. D(N) = 1 − exp(−θN2) for θ = 0.006585
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Economicdamages,D(N)
Percentage of population killed, N
Mark Freeman (University of York) Risk & Valuation December 2017 18 / 20
19. Main result
Expert opinion can result in decreasing WTP
After receiving expert opinion, a statistically and economically rational
policy maker with logarithmic utility will increase her expected value of N,
but reduce her willingness to pay to avoid the potential pandemic if and
only if
M4
M2 + S2
− s2
< m2
<
M4
M2 + S2
The example
In the example, m = 2.46% > m = 2%, yet the WTP drops from 5.13%
to 4.86% of current income.
Mark Freeman (University of York) Risk & Valuation December 2017 19 / 20
20. Psychological evidence
Climate change communication reduces skepticism...
Expert communication is successful in reducing overall levels of climate
change skepticism through knowledge transfer (e.g. Lewandowsky, Gignac
& Vaughan 2013, van der Linden et al. 2015; Ramney & Clark 2016)
... but not WTP
... but people become no more willing to pay for preventative action after
receiving this communication (e.g. Deryugina & Shurchkov 2016; Kahan
2016; Bolsen & Druckman 2016)
Mark Freeman (University of York) Risk & Valuation December 2017 20 / 20
