Ad Fraud is at its highest point ever. Yet detection of fraud is at its lowest point ever. Hmmm. It's probably because the bots are better at hiding so the detection is catching less and less of it.
Good publishers are left with a small portion of the ad spend, after fraud siphons the dollars out of the ad ecosystem into the pockets of the bad guys. Once the fraud is cleaned up, a lot more ad revenue opens up for good publishers (the ones that have human audiences, and good business practices).
So much misinformation out there about digital ad fraud. Most numbers come without context. And that is a problem. Here are some charts updated with the latest data; internally consistent.
We've come a long way in terms of getting the industry educated about ad fraud. And now there are even case studies of advertisers and publishers taking measurable actions that reduce bots and fraud. There is still a lot of work ahead and the first step is to realize we can't let our guard down now; we must be ever more vigilant and aggressive in protecting the digital ad ecosystem.
Human audiences are scarce and valuable; if you want "traffic" or "inventory' there's plenty of that, even at low cost (because it's generated by bots -- i.e. NHT - non-human traffic).
Good publishers are left with a small portion of the ad spend, after fraud siphons the dollars out of the ad ecosystem into the pockets of the bad guys. Once the fraud is cleaned up, a lot more ad revenue opens up for good publishers (the ones that have human audiences, and good business practices).
So much misinformation out there about digital ad fraud. Most numbers come without context. And that is a problem. Here are some charts updated with the latest data; internally consistent.
We've come a long way in terms of getting the industry educated about ad fraud. And now there are even case studies of advertisers and publishers taking measurable actions that reduce bots and fraud. There is still a lot of work ahead and the first step is to realize we can't let our guard down now; we must be ever more vigilant and aggressive in protecting the digital ad ecosystem.
Human audiences are scarce and valuable; if you want "traffic" or "inventory' there's plenty of that, even at low cost (because it's generated by bots -- i.e. NHT - non-human traffic).
Directly measured ad blocking rates are more accurate than estimates based on self-reported surveys or counts of downloads of ad blocking browsers. U.S. consumers have downloaded adblocking browsers but do not use them regularly.
The results confirm last month's observations that ad blocking is lower among good publishers, and industry estimates.
Good publishers have real human audiences. Advertisers should value real human audiences because their ads will be shown to humans. By focusing on good publishers, marketers can get more ROI from their digital campaigns; good publishers will earn what they deserve; and ad fraud will be significantly reduced.
You all knew this, right? The adage "you get what you pay for" never held more than it does in digital media. Buying low CPM impressions doesn't save you money if you spend the same budget. Buying better media so your ads are shown to humans leads to better outcomes. And notice the conversions are done by humans.
If we can cut off this outflow of dollars from the digital ad ecosystem, there will be 4 - 7X more digital ad dollars left for good publishers. Currently, marketers dollars are flowing straight out of the digital ecosystem into the pockets of cybercriminals.
Digital ad fraud is so bad, I could not wait another quarter to update the numbers, based on recent research. The difference in quality is so dramatic, it is worthwhile just buying clean to begin with. Savvy marketers are already starting to do this.
Many still think that ad fraud is lower in mobile. It's not lower; it's just that current fraud detection cannot detect it. Examples and case studies about the rampant fraud in mobile - betcha didn't know.
From two reputable exchanges (platforms) at every CPM price point, only 60 cents of every dollar goes towards working digital media. The rest can be considered "mark up" or margin taken by the middlemen.
There are many types of bots. Some are simple; others are more advanced and therefore cost more. The key is that bots are used to make money and they won't work harder than they need to, to get the job done.
Procurement can play a crucial role in fighting ad fraud; by helping marketers to move away from easily faked quantity metrics, to real business outcome metrics. And also removing misaligned incentives - like buying ultra low cost CPM inventory.
Ad blocking must be directly measured, not estimated from the number of downloads of ad blocking extensions or ad blocking mobile browsers. In mobile, due to app store rules, one app may not interfere with the operation of another app, which includes calling for ads. So unless users use an ad blocking browser or specifically configured proxy server, ads are NOT blocked in mobile. Our data confirms 100% of ads are loaded in mobile, in the U.S. And ad blocking may be irrelevant to advertisers because good publishers do not call for ads when an ad blocker is active (they respect consumers' wishes or they have asked them to whitelist the site).
Much more data and case studies included. Good advertisers and good publishers are making significant headway against fraud that impacts their own businesses. This cannot be said more generally of the broader digital advertising ecosystem where fraud remains rampant, because it is allowed to be.
Directly measured ad blocking rates are more accurate than estimates based on self-reported surveys or counts of downloads of ad blocking browsers. U.S. consumers have downloaded adblocking browsers but do not use them regularly.
The results confirm last month's observations that ad blocking is lower among good publishers, and industry estimates.
Good publishers have real human audiences. Advertisers should value real human audiences because their ads will be shown to humans. By focusing on good publishers, marketers can get more ROI from their digital campaigns; good publishers will earn what they deserve; and ad fraud will be significantly reduced.
You all knew this, right? The adage "you get what you pay for" never held more than it does in digital media. Buying low CPM impressions doesn't save you money if you spend the same budget. Buying better media so your ads are shown to humans leads to better outcomes. And notice the conversions are done by humans.
If we can cut off this outflow of dollars from the digital ad ecosystem, there will be 4 - 7X more digital ad dollars left for good publishers. Currently, marketers dollars are flowing straight out of the digital ecosystem into the pockets of cybercriminals.
Digital ad fraud is so bad, I could not wait another quarter to update the numbers, based on recent research. The difference in quality is so dramatic, it is worthwhile just buying clean to begin with. Savvy marketers are already starting to do this.
Many still think that ad fraud is lower in mobile. It's not lower; it's just that current fraud detection cannot detect it. Examples and case studies about the rampant fraud in mobile - betcha didn't know.
From two reputable exchanges (platforms) at every CPM price point, only 60 cents of every dollar goes towards working digital media. The rest can be considered "mark up" or margin taken by the middlemen.
There are many types of bots. Some are simple; others are more advanced and therefore cost more. The key is that bots are used to make money and they won't work harder than they need to, to get the job done.
Procurement can play a crucial role in fighting ad fraud; by helping marketers to move away from easily faked quantity metrics, to real business outcome metrics. And also removing misaligned incentives - like buying ultra low cost CPM inventory.
Ad blocking must be directly measured, not estimated from the number of downloads of ad blocking extensions or ad blocking mobile browsers. In mobile, due to app store rules, one app may not interfere with the operation of another app, which includes calling for ads. So unless users use an ad blocking browser or specifically configured proxy server, ads are NOT blocked in mobile. Our data confirms 100% of ads are loaded in mobile, in the U.S. And ad blocking may be irrelevant to advertisers because good publishers do not call for ads when an ad blocker is active (they respect consumers' wishes or they have asked them to whitelist the site).
Much more data and case studies included. Good advertisers and good publishers are making significant headway against fraud that impacts their own businesses. This cannot be said more generally of the broader digital advertising ecosystem where fraud remains rampant, because it is allowed to be.
Ad fraud steals ad budgets and negatively impacts the class action notice industry - ads are not put in front of humans, but instead are shown to bots (software programs that load webpages). Bot don't complete claim forms; humans do.
Despite the use of fraud detection technologies, notice providers should use "best practicable" actions to verify the campaign analytics to see if ad fraud still gets through.
Marketers should always insist on detailed reports; otherwise they are sure to be ripped off and not get what they thought they bought, in digital media. The charts collected over the years show that the reality is usually the opposite of what people expected.
At-scale piracy makes its money from selling digital ads. They steal content to attract an audience and monetize with ads. Other forms of "cheating" amplify their ad fraud revenues.
Ad fraud is very bad. But no matter how big the number reported, brands often don't think it affects them -- i.e. it's someone elses' problem. Here are 3 case studies of marketers taking a look for themselves and solving ad fraud by putting in place best practices and processes to continuously monitor and reduce fraud, without using fraud detection tech.
Digital ad fraud has not only NOT gone down; it has actually gone up in certain cases. There are some improvements when companies make special efforts. Ad blocking is also emerging as a threat.
presentation on ad fraud and ad blocking, and the intersection with bots -- bots dont use ad blocking and their fraudulent activities mess up measurement and ROI
Advertisers have deployed technology and relied on new industry standards to reduce wasted ad spend due to fraud and low viewability. But have those actually worked to drive up RoAS (return on ad spend)? Research data suggests that there are still high amounts of ad fraud that remains to be cleaned up and that the fake traffic, impressions, and clicks further corrupt the analytics that advertisers use to measure the success of their campaigns. Hear practical recommendations from Dr. Augustine Fou, independent cybersecurity and ad fraud researcher, on how to measure and mitigate ad fraud using high tech tools and low tech techniques.
“In addition to the ad fraud itself, bad guys make money by selling the “picks and shovels” too – e.g. bots, traffic, clicks, malware, fake apps, etc. They have an entire ecosystem to extract value. What follows are just a few examples, scratching the surface.”
Digital ad fraud continues to increase, as more ad dollars shift into digital. This is a recap of current forms of ad fraud and current techniques and technologies being used to combat it.
Marketers do their own experiments to determine the effectiveness of digital ads. The best way is to go dark for a short period of time and see if there is any change to business outcomes.
The "Badtech Industrial Complex" was built on "surveillance marketing" which comes from the misguided notions of the long tail, hypertargeting, and behavioral targeting. Ad tech and supporting services were designed with a singular goal - to extract as much value as possible from the digital marketing supply chain.
A new balance is required for the future of the Internet.
FouAnalytics - site analytics and media analytics for practitioners to detect fraud and take action themselves - on-site tags and in-ad tags measure sites and ad impressions, respectively
how the money flows from the advertisers through the ad tech intermediaries to longtail, fraud, and fake sites, with the help of botnets and traffic sellers
In 2021 some marketers are still asking whether ad fraud is real and whether it is pervasive. This serves as a simple reminder of some of the evidence collected over the years.
bad guys started with fake websites, then moved to loading ads only to save time and bandwidth; now they are simply faking bid requests and flooding exchanges
Previous studies that addressed the impact of losing third party (“3P”) cookies on ad revenue did not clearly differentiate between the impact on ad tech intermediaries versus on publishers. Instead of “advertiser CPMs” (what advertisers pay) this study uses “media CPMs” (what the publishers get) to better isolate the impact of tracking vs no tracking on publishers.
The original idea of the digital media trust collaborative is was sharing threat intelligence to more quickly remove fraudulent domains and apps from media buys.
most buyers who buy in programmatic channels think they are getting enormous "reach" -- i.e. their ads are shown on many sites; but this data shows the exact opposite is true. Their ads are being shown on a small number of sites (less than 1,000); the buyers might as well have bought more direct from good publishers.
digital ad fraud is as rampant as ever; new ripples caused by privacy regulations are starting to affect the market. and more BS from trade associations pretending to be doing something
Using Google Analytics to find abnormal traffic and fraud; this is a how-to, to get hourly charts instead of daily rolled-up or averaged data, which hides the fraud.
from the IAB FY 2019 advertising revenue report, we show that CPM and CPC ads represent 92% of all digital spend; these are the favorite targets of fraudters
FouAnalytics is an alternative to Google Analytics, but with fraud and bot detection baked in. Marketers can use FouAnalytics to look at their own campaigns, find the domains and apps that are eating up their budgets fraudulently, and turn them off, while the campaign is still running. How does that compare to your blackbox fraud detection that just gives you a percent IVT number?
Financial curveballs sent many American families reeling in 2023. Household budgets were squeezed by rising interest rates, surging prices on everyday goods, and a stagnating housing market. Consumers were feeling strapped. That sentiment, however, appears to be waning. The question is, to what extent?
To take the pulse of consumers’ feelings about their financial well-being ahead of a highly anticipated election, ThinkNow conducted a nationally representative quantitative survey. The survey highlights consumers’ hopes and anxieties as we move into 2024. Let's unpack the key findings to gain insights about where we stand.
For too many years marketing and sales have operated in silos...while in some forward thinking companies, the two organizations work together to drive new opportunity development and revenue. This session will explore the lessons learned in that beautiful dance that can occur when marketing and sales work together...to drive new opportunity development, account expansion and customer satisfaction.
No, this is not a conversation about MQLs and SQLs. Instead we will focus on a framework that allows the two organizations to drive company success together.
Digital Money Maker Club – von Gunnar Kessler digital.focsh890
Title One is a comprehensive examination of the impact of digital technologies on
modern society. In a world where technology continues to advance rapidly, this article delves into the nuances and complexities of the digital age, exploring Its implications across various sectors and aspects of life.
AI-Powered Personalization: Principles, Use Cases, and Its Impact on CROVWO
In today’s era of AI, personalization is more than just a trend—it’s a fundamental strategy that unlocks numerous opportunities.
When done effectively, personalization builds trust, loyalty, and satisfaction among your users—key factors for business success. However, relying solely on AI capabilities isn’t enough. You need to anchor your approach in solid principles, understand your users’ context, and master the art of persuasion.
Join us as Sarjak Patel and Naitry Saggu from 3rd Eye Consulting unveil a transformative framework. This approach seamlessly integrates your unique context, consumer insights, and conversion goals, paving the way for unparalleled success in personalization.
When most people in the industry talk about online or digital reputation management, what they're really saying is Google search and PPC. And it's usually reactive, left dealing with the aftermath of negative information published somewhere online. That's outdated. It leaves executives, organizations and other high-profile individuals at a high risk of a digital reputation attack that spans channels and tactics. But the tools needed to safeguard against an attack are more cybersecurity-oriented than most marketing and communications professionals can manage. Business leaders Leaders grasp the importance; 83% of executives place reputation in their top five areas of risk, yet only 23% are confident in their ability to address it. To succeed in 2024 and beyond, you need to turn online reputation on its axis and think like an attacker.\
Key Takeaways:
- New framework for examining and safeguarding an online reputation
- Tools and techniques to keep you a step ahead
- Practical examples that demonstrate when to act, how to act and how to recover
Short video marketing has sweeped the nation and is the fastest way to build an online brand on social media in 2024. In this session you will learn:- What is short video marketing- Which platforms work best for your business- Content strategies that are on brand for your business- How to sell organically without paying for ads.
When most people in the industry talk about online or digital reputation management, what they're really saying is Google search and PPC. And it's usually reactive, left dealing with the aftermath of negative information published somewhere online. That's outdated. It leaves executives, organizations and other high-profile individuals at a high risk of a digital reputation attack that spans channels and tactics. But the tools needed to safeguard against an attack are more cybersecurity-oriented than most marketing and communications professionals can manage. Business leaders Leaders grasp the importance; 83% of executives place reputation in their top five areas of risk, yet only 23% are confident in their ability to address it. To succeed in 2024 and beyond, you need to turn online reputation on its axis and think like an attacker.
Key Takeaways:
- New framework for examining and safeguarding an online reputation
- Tools and techniques to keep you a step ahead
- Practical examples that demonstrate when to act, how to act and how to recover
In this presentation, Danny Leibrandt explains the impact of AI on SEO and what Google has been doing about it. Learn how to take your SEO game to the next level and win over Google with his new strategy anyone can use. Get actionable steps to rank your name, your business, and your clients on Google - the right way.
Key Takeaways:
1. Real content is king
2. Find ways to show EEAT
3. Repurpose across all platforms
Digital Commerce Lecture for Advanced Digital & Social Media Strategy at UCLA...Valters Lauzums
E-commerce in 2024 is characterized by a dynamic blend of opportunities and significant challenges. Supply chain disruptions and inventory shortages are critical issues, leading to increased shipping delays and rising costs, which impact timely delivery and squeeze profit margins. Efficient logistics management is essential, yet it is often hampered by these external factors. Payment processing, while needing to ensure security and user convenience, grapples with preventing fraud and integrating diverse payment methods, adding another layer of complexity. Furthermore, fulfillment operations require a streamlined approach to handle volume spikes and maintain accuracy in order picking, packing, and shipping, all while meeting customers' heightened expectations for faster delivery times.
Amid these operational challenges, customer data has emerged as an important strategy. By focusing on personalization and enhancing customer experience from historical behavior, businesses can deliver improved website and brand experienced, better product recommendations, optimal promotions, and content to meet individual preferences. Better data analytics can also help in effectively creating marketing campaigns, improving customer retention, and driving product development and inventory management.
Innovative formats such as social commerce and live shopping are beginning to impact the digital commerce landscape, offering new ways to engage with customers and drive sales, and may provide opportunity for brands that have been priced out or seen a downturn with post-pandemic shopping behavior. Social commerce integrates shopping experiences directly into social media platforms, tapping into the massive user bases of these networks to increase reach and engagement. Live shopping, on the other hand, combines entertainment and real-time interaction, providing a dynamic platform for showcasing products and encouraging immediate purchases. These innovations not only enhance customer engagement but also provide valuable data for businesses to refine their strategies and deliver superior shopping experiences.
The e-commerce sector is evolving rapidly, and businesses that effectively manage operational challenges and implement innovative strategies are best positioned for long-term success.
Most small businesses struggle to see marketing results. In this session, we will eliminate any confusion about what to do next, solving your marketing problems so your business can thrive. You’ll learn how to create a foundational marketing OS (operating system) based on neuroscience and backed by real-world results. You’ll be taught how to develop deep customer connections, and how to have your CRM dynamically segment and sell at any stage in the customer’s journey. By the end of the session, you’ll remove confusion and chaos and replace it with clarity and confidence for long-term marketing success.
Key Takeaways:
• Uncover the power of a foundational marketing system that dynamically communicates with prospects and customers on autopilot.
• Harness neuroscience and Tribal Alignment to transform your communication strategies, turning potential clients into fans and those fans into loyal customers.
• Discover the art of automated segmentation, pinpointing your most lucrative customers and identifying the optimal moments for successful conversions.
• Streamline your business with a content production plan that eliminates guesswork, wasted time, and money.
The What, Why & How of 3D and AR in Digital CommercePushON Ltd
Vladimir Mulhem has over 20 years of experience in commercialising cutting edge creative technology across construction, marketing and retail.
Previously the founder and Tech and Innovation Director of Creative Content Works working with the likes of Next, John Lewis and JD Sport, he now helps retailers, brands and agencies solve challenges of applying the emerging technologies 3D, AR, VR and Gen AI to real-world problems.
In this webinar, Vladimir will be covering the following topics:
Applications of 3D and AR in Digital Commerce,
Benefits of 3D and AR,
Tools to create, manage and publish 3D and AR in Digital Commerce.
Mastering Local SEO for Service Businesses in the AI Era is tailored specifically for local service providers like plumbers, dentists, and others seeking to dominate their local search landscape. This session delves into leveraging AI advancements to enhance your online visibility and search rankings through the Content Factory model, designed for creating high-impact, SEO-driven content. Discover the Dollar-a-Day advertising strategy, a cost-effective approach to boost your local SEO efforts and attract more customers with minimal investment. Gain practical insights on optimizing your online presence to meet the specific needs of local service seekers, ensuring your business not only appears but stands out in local searches. This concise, action-oriented workshop is your roadmap to navigating the complexities of digital marketing in the AI age, driving more leads, conversions, and ultimately, success for your local service business.
Key Takeaways:
Embrace AI for Local SEO: Learn to harness the power of AI technologies to optimize your website and content for local search. Understand the pivotal role AI plays in analyzing search trends and consumer behavior, enabling you to tailor your SEO strategies to meet the specific demands of your target local audience. Leverage the Content Factory Model: Discover the step-by-step process of creating SEO-optimized content at scale. This approach ensures a steady stream of high-quality content that engages local customers and boosts your search rankings. Get an action guide on implementing this model, complete with templates and scheduling strategies to maintain a consistent online presence. Maximize ROI with Dollar-a-Day Advertising: Dive into the cost-effective Dollar-a-Day advertising strategy that amplifies your visibility in local searches without breaking the bank. Learn how to strategically allocate your budget across platforms to target potential local customers effectively. The session includes an action guide on setting up, monitoring, and optimizing your ad campaigns to ensure maximum impact with minimal investment.
SEO as the Backbone of Digital MarketingFelipe Bazon
In this talk Felipe Bazon will share how him and his team at Hedgehog Digital share our journey of making C-Levels alike, specially CMOS realize that SEO is the backbone of digital marketing by showing how SEO can contribute to brand awareness, reputation and authority and above all how to use SEO to create more robust global marketing strategies.
Search Engine Marketing - Competitor and Keyword researchETMARK ACADEMY
Over 2 Trillion searches are made per day in Google search, which means there are more than 2 Trillion visits happening across the websites of the world wide web.
People search various questions, phrases or words. But some words and phrases are searched
more often than others.
For example, the words, ‘running shoes’ are searched more often than ‘best road running
shoes for men’
These words or phrases which people use to search on Google are called Keywords.
Some keywords are searched more often than others. Number of times a keyword is searched
for in a month is called keyword volume.
Some keywords have more relevant results than others. For the phrase “running shoes” we
get more than 80M relevant results, whereas for “best road running shoes for men” we get
only 8.
The former keyword ‘running shoes’ has way more competition from popular websites to
new and small blogs, whereas the latter keyword doesn’t have that much competition. This
search competition for a keyword is called search difficulty of a keyword or keyword
difficulty.
In other words, if the keyword difficulty is ‘low’ or ‘easy’, there won’t be any competition
and if you target such keywords on your site, you can easily rank on the front page of Google.
Some keywords are searched for, just to know or to learn some information about something,
that’s their search intention. For example, “What shoe size should I choose?” or “How to pick
the right shoe size?”
These keywords which are searched just to know about stuff are called informational
keywords. Typically people who are searching this type of keywords are top of a Conversion
funnel.
Conversion funnel is the journey that search visitors go through on their way to an email
subscription or a premium subscription to the services you offer or a purchase of products
you sell or recommend using your referral link.
For some buyers, research is the most important part when they have to buy a product.
Depending on that, their journey either widens or narrows down. These types of buyers are
Researchers and they spend more time with informational keywords.
Conversion is the action you want from your search visitors. Number of conversions that you
get for every 100 search visitors is called Conversion rate.
People who are at different stages of a conversion funnel use different types of keywords.
Mastering Multi-Touchpoint Content Strategy: Navigate Fragmented User JourneysSearch Engine Journal
Digital platforms are constantly multiplying, and with that, user engagement is becoming more intricate and fragmented.
So how do you effectively navigate distributing and tailoring your content across these various touchpoints?
Watch this webinar as we dive into the evolving landscape of content strategy tailored for today's fragmented user journeys. Understanding how to deliver your content to your users is more crucial than ever, and we’ll provide actionable tips for navigating these intricate challenges.
You’ll learn:
- How today’s users engage with content across various channels and devices.
- The latest methodologies for identifying and addressing content gaps to keep your content strategy proactive and relevant.
- What digital shelf space is and how your content strategy needs to pivot.
With Wayne Cichanski, we’ll explore innovative strategies to map out and meet the diverse needs of your audience, ensuring every piece of content resonates and connects, regardless of where or how it is consumed.
5. June 2017 / Page 4marketing.scienceconsulting group, inc.
linkedin.com/in/augustinefou
Stop buying poop water…
“Which? 1) start with ‘poop water’ and filter it
before you drink it?, or 2) start with fresh water?”
Good publishers are “fresh water.”
6. June 2017 / Page 5marketing.scienceconsulting group, inc.
linkedin.com/in/augustinefou
Bifurcate good pubs from “other”
100% bot traffic
“fake (cash out) sites”
• No content
• Stolen content
• Fake content
“sites with real content that
real humans want to read”
Source: DCN/ WhiteOps 2015
“sites you’ve heard of”
WSJ
ESPN
NYTimes
Economist
Reuters
Elle
Good Publishers
(good business practices)
“sites that carry ads”
7. June 2017 / Page 6marketing.scienceconsulting group, inc.
linkedin.com/in/augustinefou
How ad fraud works … very simply
Source: Distil Networks 2017
1. Start with lots of bots
2X more data center browsers
than malware on PCs at home
2. Launder using tech tools
Randomize referrer to look legit,
user agent, and IP address location
3. Sell traffic to willing buyers
“Sites that carry ads” want to buy
traffic to increase ad revenues
4. Sell low cost CPMs on exchanges
Massive quantities of low cost inventory
sold to marketers, fully laundered
Source: Ratko Vidakovic, May 2017
Publishers who want it Advertisers who want it
9. “just because you can’t
detect it (fraud), doesn’t
mean it’s not there.”
10. June 2017 / Page 9marketing.scienceconsulting group, inc.
linkedin.com/in/augustinefou
Fraud diverts ad spend to fake sites
Good Publishers “sites that carry ads”
• No content
• Few humans
• Low CPMS
Search Spend
$40 $40
Display Spend Other
$21$30
$3
Google Search FB+Google Display$29
(outside Google/Facebook)
Source: eMarketer March 2017
11. June 2017 / Page 10marketing.scienceconsulting group, inc.
linkedin.com/in/augustinefou
Walled gardens are fine, on-site …
Google
Search
Facebook
Display
“bots can’t make money
when ads load here”
GDN FBX
less bots | more humans
first-party IDs, people-based marketing
facebook.comgoogle.com
facebook app
12. June 2017 / Page 11marketing.scienceconsulting group, inc.
linkedin.com/in/augustinefou
$29
(outside Google/Facebook)
There’s 15X more “sites with ads”
Good Publishers “sites with ads”
Source: Verisign, Q4 2016
329M
domains
159 million
“sites that carry ads”
11 million
“sites you’ve heard of”
WSJ
ESPN
NYTimes
Economist
Reuters
Elle
3%
no ads
ads
15X more
13. June 2017 / Page 12marketing.scienceconsulting group, inc.
linkedin.com/in/augustinefou
Mobile fraud steals ad dollars too
159 million
“sites that carry ads”
11 milion
“sites you’ve heard of”
WSJ
ESPN
NYTimes
Economist
Reuters
Elle
3%
no ads
7M
apps
Source: Statista, March 2017
96%
“apps that carry ads”
Search Spend
$40 $40
Display Spend Other
$21$30
$3
Google Search FB+Google Display$29
(outside Google/Facebook)
Source: eMarketer March 2017
Source: Verisign, Q4 2016
329M
domains
10,000
“apps you’ve heard of”
Facebook
Spotify
Pandora
Zynga
Pokemon
YouTube
14. June 2017 / Page 13marketing.scienceconsulting group, inc.
linkedin.com/in/augustinefou
Fake sites, fake apps -- examples
Fake Sites
Source: Sadbottrue.com
Fake Apps
… they can sell ad
“inventory” at low prices
16. June 2017 / Page 15marketing.scienceconsulting group, inc.
linkedin.com/in/augustinefou
The most profitable criminal activity
1000% return
11% returns1% interest
digital ad fraud
stock marketbank interest
“buy traffic for $1, sell
ads for $10 CPMs”
17. June 2017 / Page 16marketing.scienceconsulting group, inc.
linkedin.com/in/augustinefou
(2015) Display ads …
Increased CPM prices
by 800%
Decreased impression
volume by 92%
Source: http://adexchanger.com/ad-exchange-news/6-months-after-fraud-cleanup-appnexus-shares-effect-on-its-exchange/
260 billion
20 billion
> $1.60
< 20 cents
18. June 2017 / Page 17marketing.scienceconsulting group, inc.
linkedin.com/in/augustinefou
(2016) Video ads …
Source: Dec 2016 WhiteOps Discloses Methbot Research
“Methbot, steals $2 billion annualized;
and it avoided detection for years.”
1. Targeted video ad inventory
$13 average CPM, 10X
higher than display ads
2. Disguised as good publishers
Pretending to be good
publishers to cover tracks
3. Simulated human actions
Actively faked clicks, mouse
movements, page scrolling
4. Obfuscated data center origins
Data center bots pretended to
be from residential IP addresses
1 botnet eats 15% of video inventory
19. June 2017 / Page 18marketing.scienceconsulting group, inc.
linkedin.com/in/augustinefou
(2017) Mobile ads …Source: June 2017, Tune
average 20% fraud
100% fraud
50% fraud24 billion clicks on
700 mobile networks
20. June 2017 / Page 19marketing.scienceconsulting group, inc.
linkedin.com/in/augustinefou
Our own data on mobile…
1 2
66% avg fraud
18% avg fraud
1. 9% of the apps (blue dots) caused 80% of fraudulent impressions
2. Remaining 91% of apps caused the remaining 20% of fake impressions
• 1 billion mobile display impressions
• Nearly 1,000 apps cross referenced with SDK
21. June 2017 / Page 20marketing.scienceconsulting group, inc.
linkedin.com/in/augustinefou
Case File: 3 bad apps eat most of budget
com.jiubang com.flashlight com.latininput
75% of the
dark red
22. June 2017 / Page 21marketing.scienceconsulting group, inc.
linkedin.com/in/augustinefou
Ad fraud on such a massive scale…
May 26 Forbes “Judy Malware”
• 40 bad apps to load ads
• 36 million fake devices to load
bad apps
• e.g. 30 ads per device /minute
• 30 ads per minute = 1 billion
fraud impressions per minute
June 1 Checkpoint “Fireball”
• 250 million infected computers
• primary use = traffic for ad
fraud
• 4 ads /pageview (2s load time)
• fraudulent impressions at the
rate of 30 billion per minute
24. June 2017 / Page 23marketing.scienceconsulting group, inc.
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Fake sites successfully sell ads… how?
100% viewability
(but, it’s fake)
AD
Stack ads all
above the fold to
trick detection
0% NHT
(but, it’s fake)
Buy traffic that is
guaranteed to
pass fraud filters
clean placement
(but, it’s fake)
Pass fake source
to trick reports of
placement details
http://www.olay.co
m/skin-care-
products/OlayPro-
X?utm_source=elle
&utm_medium=dis
play
+ +
“by tricking measurement and reporting”
25. June 2017 / Page 24marketing.scienceconsulting group, inc.
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Fake inventory sold on exchanges
publisherA.com
… but, PublisherA
does NOT sell ads
on open exchanges!
“Dark Revenue” is ad revenue diverted away from
publishers, so they don’t even see it’s missing.
• Large pubs – “dark” is 1-2X ad revenue
• Medium pubs - “dark” is 5-10X ad revenue
• Small pubs - “dark” is 20-100X ad revenue
26. June 2017 / Page 25marketing.scienceconsulting group, inc.
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Case in point… Chase (try this)
“JPMorgan had already decided
last year to oversee its own
programmatic buying operation.
Advertisements for JPMorgan
Chase were appearing on about
400,000 websites a month. [But]
only 12,000, or 3 percent, led to
activity beyond an impression.
[Then, Chase] limited its display
ads to about 5,000 websites. We
haven’t seen any deterioration on
our performance metrics,” Ms.
Lemkau said.”
“99% reduction in ‘reach’ … Same Results.”
Source: NYTimes, March 29, 2017
(because it wasn’t real, human reach)
27. June 2017 / Page 26marketing.scienceconsulting group, inc.
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Bad guys exploit gaps
in detection
28. June 2017 / Page 27marketing.scienceconsulting group, inc.
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Current detection is severely limited
In-Ad
(billions of ads)
• Limitations –
tag is in foreign
iframe, cannot look
outside itself
ad tag / pixel
(in-ad measurement)
In-Network
(trillions of bids)
On-Site
(millions of pageviews)
javascript embed
(on-site measurement)
• Limitations –
most detailed and
complete analysis
of visitors
• Limitations –
relies on blacklists
or probabilistic
algorithms, least info
ad
served
bot
human
fraud site
good site
29. June 2017 / Page 28marketing.scienceconsulting group, inc.
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Resulting in bad measurements
Incorrect IVT
Measurement
Sources 1 and 2
on-page
Source 3
in foreign iframe
1x1 pixel
incorrectly reported as
100% viewable
Incorrect
Viewability
30. June 2017 / Page 29marketing.scienceconsulting group, inc.
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Tag placement matters ... A LOT
Tag
(in foreign iframe)
Tag
(on page)
window sizes detected
as 0x0 or 0x8 pixels correct window sizes
for ads detected
0% humans
60% bots
60% humans
3% bots
“fraud measurements could be entirely wrong, depending on
where the tag is placed and where the measurement is done.”
32. June 2017 / Page 31marketing.scienceconsulting group, inc.
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Actively review and scrub campaigns
Launch Week 3 and beyondWeek 2
Initial baseline
measurement
Measurement after
first optimization
After eliminating several
“problematic” networks
33. June 2017 / Page 32marketing.scienceconsulting group, inc.
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Optimize for real human conversions
Organic sources
have more humans
(dark blue)
Conversion actions (calls)
are well correlated to
humans; bots don’t call
34. June 2017 / Page 33marketing.scienceconsulting group, inc.
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Shift budgets to quality (high human)
Lower quality paid sources
mean higher cost per human
acquired – like 11X the cost.
Sources of different quality send
widely different amounts of
humans to landing pages.
“mitigation doesn’t even
require technology!”
35. June 2017 / Page 34marketing.scienceconsulting group, inc.
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Measure every point of the funnel
Measure
Ads
Measure
Arrivals
Measure
Conversions
346
1743
5
156
A
B
30X more human
conversion events
• More arrivals
• Better quality
more humans (blue)
good publishers
low-cost media,
ad exchanges
37. June 2017 / Page 36marketing.scienceconsulting group, inc.
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Good publishers act to reduce bots
Publisher 1 – stopped buying traffic
Publisher 2 – filtered data center traffic
38. June 2017 / Page 37marketing.scienceconsulting group, inc.
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Good publishers protect advertisers
On-Site measurement,
bots are still coming
In-Ad measurement, bots
and data centers filtered
11% red
-9% (filtered GIVT
and data centers)
2% red
“Filter data center traffic and not call the ads”
39. June 2017 / Page 38marketing.scienceconsulting group, inc.
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Good publishers protect their users
42 trackers
24.3s load time
8 trackers
1.3s load time
“minimize 3rd party javascript trackers on pages”
40. June 2017 / Page 39marketing.scienceconsulting group, inc.
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Good publishers have good practices
“good business practices lead to good looking data”
Good Publishers “sites that carry ads”
• source traffic
• audience extension
• auto-refresh
• traffic laundering
• don‘t source traffic
• protect advertisers
• protect consumers
41. June 2017 / Page 40marketing.scienceconsulting group, inc.
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How can we tell “good” from “other?”
“Business practice review by independent 3rd party
provides the trust and assurance that distinguishes
good publishers from ‘sites that carry ads’.”
42. June 2017 / Page 41marketing.scienceconsulting group, inc.
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The “new deal” benefits all parties
Good Publishers
(more revenue)
Consumers
(better experience)
Advertisers
(better outcomes)
43. June 2017 / Page 42marketing.scienceconsulting group, inc.
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Trust & Transparency Manifesto
Good Publishers
(more revenue)
Consumers
(better experience)
Advertisers
(better outcomes)
Agencies
(better business)
• Protect
advertisers
• Protect
Consumers
• Whitelist
good
publishers
• Protect
themselves
from malware
and privacy
invasion
• Be an agency;
charge for
work done
• Don’t
arbitrage
undisclosed
margins
• Optimize for
outcomes not
quantity
• Pay Fairly
and Timely
“every party has a role to help make the industry better”
44. June 2017 / Page 43marketing.scienceconsulting group, inc.
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About the Author
June 2017
Augustine Fou, PhD.
acfou [@] mktsci.com
212. 203 .7239
45. June 2017 / Page 44marketing.scienceconsulting group, inc.
linkedin.com/in/augustinefou
Dr. Augustine Fou – Independent Ad Fraud Researcher
2013
2014
Follow me on LinkedIn (click) and on Twitter
@acfou (click)
Further reading:
http://www.slideshare.net/augustinefou/presentations
https://www.linkedin.com/today/author/augustinefou
2016
2015
46. June 2017 / Page 45marketing.scienceconsulting group, inc.
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Harvard Business Review
Excerpt:
Hunting the Bots
Fou, a prodigy who earned a Ph.D. from MIT at
23, belongs to the generation that witnessed
the rise of digital marketers, having crafted his
trade at American Express, one of the most
successful American consumer brands, and at
Omnicom, one of the largest global advertising
agencies. Eventually stepping away from
corporate life, Fou started his own practice,
focusing on digital marketing fraud
investigation.
Fou’s experiment proved that fake traffic is
unproductive traffic. The fake visitors inflated
the traffic statistics but contributed nothing to
conversions, which stayed steady even after the
traffic plummeted (bottom chart). Fake traffic is
generated by “bad-guy bots.” A bot is computer
code that runs automated tasks.