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Marketers take control
September 2017
Augustine Fou, PhD.
acfou [at] mktsci.com
212. 203 .7239
September 2017 / Page 1marketing.scienceconsulting group, inc.
linkedin.com/in/augustinefou
Chase: 99% reach had no impact...
September 2017 / Page 2marketing.scienceconsulting group, inc.
linkedin.com/in/augustinefou
P&G: $140M in digital, no impa...
September 2017 / Page 3marketing.scienceconsulting group, inc.
linkedin.com/in/augustinefou
Restoration Hardware: cut all ...
September 2017 / Page 4marketing.scienceconsulting group, inc.
linkedin.com/in/augustinefou
Uber Sues Mobile Agency for Ad...
If you don’t have 100%
measurement or very detailed
reports… you’re NOT
getting what you paid for.
September 2017 / Page 6marketing.scienceconsulting group, inc.
linkedin.com/in/augustinefou
Thought you bought ESPN? Nope
...
September 2017 / Page 7marketing.scienceconsulting group, inc.
linkedin.com/in/augustinefou
Thought you bought reach? Nope...
September 2017 / Page 8marketing.scienceconsulting group, inc.
linkedin.com/in/augustinefou
98% impressions blown out in 1...
September 2017 / Page 9marketing.scienceconsulting group, inc.
linkedin.com/in/augustinefou
Fraud filters don’t work. At. ...
September 2017 / Page 10marketing.scienceconsulting group, inc.
linkedin.com/in/augustinefou
Paid extra for geotargeting; ...
September 2017 / Page 11marketing.scienceconsulting group, inc.
linkedin.com/in/augustinefou
Paid extra for targeting, no ...
September 2017 / Page 12marketing.scienceconsulting group, inc.
linkedin.com/in/augustinefou
Targeting recent purchasers, ...
September 2017 / Page 13marketing.scienceconsulting group, inc.
linkedin.com/in/augustinefou
90-99% of geolocation bad or ...
September 2017 / Page 14marketing.scienceconsulting group, inc.
linkedin.com/in/augustinefou
9% of apps caused 80% of fake...
September 2017 / Page 15marketing.scienceconsulting group, inc.
linkedin.com/in/augustinefou
3 bad apps eat 75% of mobile ...
September 2017 / Page 16marketing.scienceconsulting group, inc.
linkedin.com/in/augustinefou
34 Mobile Networks >50% Fraud...
September 2017 / Page 17marketing.scienceconsulting group, inc.
linkedin.com/in/augustinefou
Some ads are called without w...
September 2017 / Page 18marketing.scienceconsulting group, inc.
linkedin.com/in/augustinefou
About the Author
September 20...
September 2017 / Page 19marketing.scienceconsulting group, inc.
linkedin.com/in/augustinefou
Dr. Augustine Fou – Independe...
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Marketers Take Control Run Experiments

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Marketers do their own experiments to determine the effectiveness of digital ads. The best way is to go dark for a short period of time and see if there is any change to business outcomes.

Published in: Marketing
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Marketers Take Control Run Experiments

  1. 1. Marketers take control September 2017 Augustine Fou, PhD. acfou [at] mktsci.com 212. 203 .7239
  2. 2. September 2017 / Page 1marketing.scienceconsulting group, inc. linkedin.com/in/augustinefou Chase: 99% reach had no impact “JPMorgan had already decided last year to oversee its own programmatic buying operation. Advertisements for JPMorgan Chase were appearing on about 400,000 websites a month. [But] only 12,000, or 3 percent, led to activity beyond an impression. [Then, Chase] limited its display ads to about 5,000 websites. We haven’t seen any deterioration on our performance metrics,” Ms. Lemkau said.” “99% reduction in ‘reach’ … Same Results.” Source: NYTimes, March 29, 2017 (because it wasn’t real, human reach)
  3. 3. September 2017 / Page 2marketing.scienceconsulting group, inc. linkedin.com/in/augustinefou P&G: $140M in digital, no impact “Procter & Gamble's concerns about where its ads were showing up online contributed to a $140 million cutback in the company's digital ad spending last quarter, the company said Thursday. That helped the world's biggest advertiser beat earnings expectations. Perhaps even more noteworthy, however, organic sales outperformed both analyst forecasts and key rivals at 2% growth despite the drop in ad support. Source: AdAge, July 2017
  4. 4. September 2017 / Page 3marketing.scienceconsulting group, inc. linkedin.com/in/augustinefou Restoration Hardware: cut all keywords “[W]e’ve found out that 98% of our business was coming from 22 words. So, wait, we’re buying 3,200 words and 98% of the business is coming from 22 words. What are the 22 words? And they said, well, it’s the word Restoration Hardware and the 21 ways to spell it wrong, okay? Immediately the next day, we cancelled all the words, including our own name.” Source: BusinessInsider, Sept 2017
  5. 5. September 2017 / Page 4marketing.scienceconsulting group, inc. linkedin.com/in/augustinefou Uber Sues Mobile Agency for Ad Fraud “Between 2015 and the first quarter of 2017, Uber paid more than $82.5 million for the ad effort coordinated by Fetch, court documents show. Uber alleges to have found… a Fetch transparency report that showed the number of weekly reported clicks on Uber ads on one website was nearly equal to the site’s monthly active users. Uber was spending millions of dollars a week on mobile ad inventory that was “purportedly attributable to hundreds of thousands (even millions) of Uber App installs per week,” according to the complaint. However, when the mobile ad effort was suspended, Uber said it saw “no material drop in total installations.” Source: WSJ, Sept 2017
  6. 6. If you don’t have 100% measurement or very detailed reports… you’re NOT getting what you paid for.
  7. 7. September 2017 / Page 6marketing.scienceconsulting group, inc. linkedin.com/in/augustinefou Thought you bought ESPN? Nope publisherA.com ALL fake inventory because, PublisherA does NOT sell any ads on any exchanges! “Fake sites must pretend to be mainstream ones in order to sell inventory.”
  8. 8. September 2017 / Page 7marketing.scienceconsulting group, inc. linkedin.com/in/augustinefou Thought you bought reach? Nope $1 CPM Top 10 sites = 66% of imps $5 CPM Top 10 sites = 74% of imps $0.50 CPM Top 5 sites = 100% of imps $10 CPM Top 10 sites = 71% of imps Majority of your ads ran on 5-10 sites/apps
  9. 9. September 2017 / Page 8marketing.scienceconsulting group, inc. linkedin.com/in/augustinefou 98% impressions blown out in 1 hr Most of budget wasted between 12a – 4a; to bots 98% impressions blown in 1st hour (12a-1a) HOURLY CHART
  10. 10. September 2017 / Page 9marketing.scienceconsulting group, inc. linkedin.com/in/augustinefou Fraud filters don’t work. At. All. 1. Fraud filters are no better than manual blacklists 2. In some cases it’s worse when filter is on 3. Using fraud filters adds 20 – 24% to costs; manual blacklists are free
  11. 11. September 2017 / Page 10marketing.scienceconsulting group, inc. linkedin.com/in/augustinefou Paid extra for geotargeting; 100% faked Not Normal – in both campaigns 1. 100% mobile apps; 100% Android; same top 15 apps in both markets 2. 100% of impressions generated between 4a – 5a local time 3. 100% fake devices; 15 unique devices generated top 95% impressions 4. 100% data center traffic, randomized through residential proxies
  12. 12. September 2017 / Page 11marketing.scienceconsulting group, inc. linkedin.com/in/augustinefou Paid extra for targeting, no effect “Verified Bots” “Verified Humans” “Fraud-free Apps”Control: No Targeting +$0.25 data CPM +$0.25 data CPM+$0.25 data CPM
  13. 13. September 2017 / Page 12marketing.scienceconsulting group, inc. linkedin.com/in/augustinefou Targeting recent purchasers, didn’t work “Frequent Buyers” “Heavy Buyers” “Recent Purchaser - Books”Control: No Targeting +$1.00 data CPM +$1.00 data CPM+$1.75 data CPM
  14. 14. September 2017 / Page 13marketing.scienceconsulting group, inc. linkedin.com/in/augustinefou 90-99% of geolocation bad or faked Source: Placed Source: SafeGraph
  15. 15. September 2017 / Page 14marketing.scienceconsulting group, inc. linkedin.com/in/augustinefou 9% of apps caused 80% of fake impressions 1 (52% of impressions) 2 (48% of impr) 66% avg fraud 18% avg fraud 1. 9% of the apps caused 52% of impressions; 66% outright fraud 2. Remaining 91% of apps caused 48% of impressions, 18% outright fraud
  16. 16. September 2017 / Page 15marketing.scienceconsulting group, inc. linkedin.com/in/augustinefou 3 bad apps eat 75% of mobile budget com.jiubang com.flashlight com.latininput 75% of the dark red
  17. 17. September 2017 / Page 16marketing.scienceconsulting group, inc. linkedin.com/in/augustinefou 34 Mobile Networks >50% Fraud Source: June 2017, Tune average 20% fraud 100% fraud > 50% fraud
  18. 18. September 2017 / Page 17marketing.scienceconsulting group, inc. linkedin.com/in/augustinefou Some ads are called without webpages “Naked ad calls” are ad impressions served without webpages
  19. 19. September 2017 / Page 18marketing.scienceconsulting group, inc. linkedin.com/in/augustinefou About the Author September 2017 Augustine Fou, PhD. acfou [@] mktsci.com 212. 203 .7239
  20. 20. September 2017 / Page 19marketing.scienceconsulting group, inc. linkedin.com/in/augustinefou Dr. Augustine Fou – Independent Ad Fraud Researcher 2013 2014 Follow me on LinkedIn (click) and on Twitter @acfou (click) Further reading: http://www.slideshare.net/augustinefou/presentations https://www.linkedin.com/today/author/augustinefou 2016 2015

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