Diane Coyle: Logical and possible futures
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This document discusses three potential problems related to the future: 1) Stagnating labor productivity which has been an ongoing issue, 2) Robots taking human jobs as technology advances, and 3) Failing to share productivity gains broadly in society. It references a "Back to the Future Future" and questions what the actual future may hold.
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Diane Coyle: Logical and possible futures
- 1. Logical and possible futures Future Shock Friday 14 November, 2015 Diane Coyle Diane.Coyle@manchester.ac.uk @diane1859
- 4. Problem 1: labour productivity
- 5. (It’s an old problem)
- 6. Problem 2: robots taking jobs
- 7. A bit of logic…. If P1 then P2 P2 P3
- 8. Problem 3: sharing productivity gains
- 9. The Back to the Future Future
- 10. The Future?
Editor's Notes
- Keynes memorandum to War Cabinet on Britain’s likely post-war difficulties: “If by some sad geographical slip, the American Air Force (it is now too late to hope for much from the enemy) were to destroy eveery factory on the NE coast and in Lancashire (at an hour when the directors were sitting there and no-one else) we should have nothing to fear.” ‘Antiquated inefficiency’.
- Bank of England – 16 ppt gap relative to pre-crisis trend to explain: about ¼ measurement issues, remainder “reduced investment in physical and intangible capital, and impaired resource allocation and unusually high firm survival rates” Also a huge increase in productivity dispersion across industries Business investment has just regained 2008 peak (post-revisions – without them, 16% below peak). Peak was only 14% above level a decade earlier – share in GDP in steady decline.
- So two billion have access to washing machines. And the remaining five billion, how do they wash? My mother explained the magic with this machine the very, very first day. She said, "Now Hans, we have loaded the laundry. The machine will make the work. And now we can go to the library."