Developing Trends of Renewable Energy-small size

Maxwell Venture Service LLC All Rights Reserved & Confidential
Developing Trends of Renewable Energies
麥斯管理顧問有限公司
Maxwell Chen 陳世芳
Chief Executive Officer
An Industry, Business, and Investment Architect
2016創投學苑-創投經理人課程
2016/05/11

Disclaimer and Cautionary Note
• You are about to review presentations, pictures, graphics, tables, comments, filings and/or other materials of
Maxwell Venture Service LLC. The information contained therein is accurate as of the date thereof.
However, that information may be updated, amended, supplemented or otherwise modified by
subsequent presentations, pictures, graphics, tables, comments, filings, events and/or other materials.
• In addition to the historical information contained therein, these materials contain forward-looking
statements that are inherently subject to risks and uncertainties, including but not limited to statements
regarding company, industry, geographic, product, technology or demand projections, estimates, forecasts,
trends, growth or opportunities, or our positioning or ability to capitalize thereon; target business or
financial outlook, projections, estimates, guidance, forecasts, trends or growth; target business or growth
initiatives or strategies; projections, estimates, forecasts, trends or growth in shipments, sales or average
selling prices; product roadmap; devices which may contain products; or future products, solutions,
technologies, innovations, features or functionality. Forward-looking statements are generally identified by
words such as "expects," "believes," "anticipates," "projects," "estimates," "guidance" and similar
expressions. Actual results may differ materially from those referred to in the forward-looking statements
due to a number of important factors, including but not limited to risks associated with the commercial
deployment of technologies and sales of equipment, products and services based on these technologies;
competition; our dependence on a small number of customers and industry players; our dependence on
third-party suppliers; the enforcement and protection of our intellectual property rights; claims by third
parties that we infringe their intellectual property; global economic conditions that impact the industry and
the potential impact on demand for our analysis and forecast. We undertake no obligation to update any
forward-looking statements.
• Content in this presentation is for reference only and should not be a basis for any investment or
business decision making. Maxwell Venture Service LLC assumes no liability.
2

Introduction of Maxwell Chen
• Education：
2002~2004：M.S., Management of Technology, National Chiao Tung University
1996~2000：B.S., Electronic Engineering, National Chiao Tung University
• Venture Capital Experience (since 2004)：
(1) Sunsino Venture Capital Group, (2) Vertex Venture Holdings, a Temasek
Holdings company.(3) C Squared Capital, (4)Waterland Venture Capital, a
Waterland Financial Holdings company.(5) Sasson Capital, a MTI company.
• Board Director：
2015/08~now：CEO at Maxwell Venture Service LLC. (麥斯管理顧問有限公司)
2015/02~now：Member of the Supervisory Board at uSenlight Inc. (佑勝光電)
2014/05~now：Member of the Supervisory Board at Dexatek Technology (海峽數
碼)
• Successful Exit Investment (19 cases)：
穩懋半導體(WIN Semiconductor) 、創意電子(Global Unichip) 、光環科技(TrueLight) 、上詮光纖
(FOCI) 、隆達電子(Lextar Electronics)、晶宏半導體(UltraChip)、韋僑科技(Securitag Assembly Group)、
全智科技(Giga Solution) 、笙泉科技(Megawin Technology)。聯銓科技(EPITECH )、元砷光電(SOUTH
EPITAXY) 、聯鈞光電(eLaser)、前鼎光電(APAC Opto Electronics) 、奇力光電(Chi Mei Lighting
Technology)、興能高科技(SYNergy ScienTech)、星通資訊(Loop Telecom) 、光頡科技(Viking Tech)、
高平磊晶(Kopin Taiwan)、聯勝光電(High Power Opto)。
3

Investment Performance in 2014
Company
Avg. Unit
Cost
Avg. Unit Selling
Price
First buying
date
Last Selling
Date ROI XIRR
TW.3141 Ultrachip -
first buy 10 18.53 2010/11/22 2014/3/17 85% 20%
TW.3141 UltraChip -
second buy 10.48 18.17
2013/7/9 2014/3/20
73% 122%
TW.3363 FOCI 31.99 44.00
2014/3/21 2014/4/15
37% 9805%
TW.6417 SAG - first
buy 13.84 27.38 2014/1/6 2014/9/19 97% 216%
TW.6417 SAG - second
buy 19.06 28.90 2014/6/23 2014/9/17 51% 476%
TW.3025 Loop Com. 12.00 13.70
2014/1/8 2014/2/21
12% 190%
Synergy ScienTech
Corp. 8.80 15.00 2014/1/18 2014/3/15 83% 4967%

Business of Maxwell Venture Service LLC
• Venture Service：
a new business model which combines venture capital and business incubation/accelerator.
A venture service firm provides services and integrates cross-industry resources to help a single
company to growth in multiple industries and to play as a key player. It helps to strengthen a
client’s inside value chain and outside supply chain.
The first venture service theory is from Maxwell’s MBA thesis in 2004. “The Venture
Creation Services - The Convergence of Venture Capital and Business Incubation.”,
National Chiao-Tung University, Institute of Management of Technology
• Our Services：
Omni-Industry Analysis (全方位產業分析)
Technology Foresight & Forecast (技術前瞻與預測)
Strategic Alliance ＆ Business Development (策略聯盟與企業發展)
Fund Raising Implementation
Market Foresight & Forecast
Building a Strong Team
Strategic Planning
Operation of Board/Shareholders Meeting & Corporate Governance
Financial Planning
Managing Family Investment Fund

Evolution o f Venture Service
Source：陳世芳(2004)，「創業服務－創業投資與企業育成之聚合」，國立交通大學，科技管理碩士學位論文；Revised in 2005
accelerator

Omni-industry Analysis & Proactive Investment
• Omni-industry Analysis： (http://technews.tw/author/maxwell/)
• 離岸風力發電(Offshore Wind Power)/海底電纜(Submarine Cable)
• 物聯網(IoT)通訊系統(IoT Communication Systems)
• 超級智慧電網 (Super Smart Grid)/數位電源控制(Digital Power Control)
• 微機電/半導體/IC設計/IP設計 (MEMS/Semiconductor/IC Design/IP Design)
• 電動車(EV)/電動機車(E-scooter)/電動腳踏車(E-bike)/能源服務(Energy Service)
• 醫療設備(Medical Equipment)/醫療感測器(Medical Sensors)
• 生質能(Biomass)/再生能源(Renewable Energies)/石油與天然(頁岩)氣(Oil & Natural/Shale
Gas)
• 新材料(New Materials)/穿戴式電子(Wearable Electronics)
• 科技農漁業(Technology Agriculture & Fisheries)
• 水資源(Water Resources)
• 國際連鎖企業(International Chain Enterprise)/社會企業(Social Enterprise)/媒體與網路
(Media & Internet)/文創產業(Cultural Enterprise)
• 智慧型機器人(Intelligent Robot)/航太(Aerospace)/精密機械(Precision Machinery)
• Proactive Investment。
7

Outline
• Industry Analysis as a Venture Capitalist
• A Smart Energy/Power Era
CCS is expensive
Do not Invest CO2 Price/Emission Allowance
Nuclear Power is not as Cheap as Claimed
Very High Subsidies of Nuclear Power
32.97~55.07% Chance of a Reactor Meltdown if Year of Operations >40 Years
• Renewable Energies
• Wind Power
Small Wind Turbine was Dead since 2005
New “Electricity Formula (電價公式)” asked all electricity consumers to pay the FIT subsidies.
Ship Channel Problems
• Solar PV Power
Solar PV should replace OCGT/Light Diesel Oil Power first, and then Fuel Oil Power
• Geothermal Power
Earthquake Power Plant（地震發電廠）, Comprising Water Injection Well
• Super Smart Grid
Microgrid/Distributed Power is expensive and a niche market
Phase 1 of Submarine Grid of Taiwan Straits
A lot of Wind and Solar PV Power Will be Abandoned after 2020 without Grid Upgrade
• Smart Power Dispatch
• Power Grid Storage
• Intersection between Renewable Energies & Financial Industry
• 100% Renewable Energy World by 2050
8

Industry Analysis as a Venture Capitalist
• An industry is a set of supply chains. An industry comprises a lot of firms,
and a firm may cross multiple industries/supply chains.
How to define an industry? What is the proper resolution of industry analysis?
• We do industry analysis for Profits/Performance/IRR, not for report price.
• We do industry analysis for outstanding post-investment management.
• We monitor the whole supply chain, and engage the global leaders.
How much connections do you have?
Did you put connections in the right places? Scopes & depths.
How often do you gather information? Permanent monitoring?
What is the return path? Direct or indirect?
Signal to Noise Ratio? How to define a noise or a signal?
What is your techniques to analyze huge information/big data?
How do you meet the global leaders? Face to face? Why must they tell you the truth?
• Unfortunately, most VC bosses don’t care about industry analysis. They
don’t know too much about supply chains.
• Please customize an industry analysis for your investment case. You need
not tell everything into details.
9

Industry Development & Financial Sector
• Financial Sectors support industry development in the ecosystems.
10
Source: UNEP (United Nations Environment Programme), Bloomberg New Energy Finance (2016), "GLOBAL TRENDS IN RENEWABLE ENERGY
INVESTMENT 2016".
(Operators,
Developers)
(Financial
Sectors)

My Architecture of Industry Analysis
Source: Michael Porter, Ghemawa, Hill & Jones, Maxwell, 2006
Supplier’s Power Competitive Rivalry
Threat of Potential
Competitors
Buyer’s Power
Threat of
Substitution
Complementary
Factors
Political & Legal Environment
Population Structure Social Environment
Marco Economies
Technology Environment
How do you give weights? How do you define the needed depths of an industry analysis?

What Can a VC do in the Global Renewable Energy Investment Context?
• VC funds must cooperate with project finance/M&A funds.
• Encourage renewable power developers go public.
12
Source: UNEP (United Nations Environment Programme), Bloomberg New Energy Finance (2016), "GLOBAL TRENDS IN RENEWABLE ENERGY INVESTMENT 2016".

Asset Finance Plays a Key Role in Renewable Energy Investment
• New Investment of VC：＄1.3B, 0.45%
• Transactions of VC：＄1.3B, 0.34%
• Transactions ($380B) = New Investment ($285.9B) + M&A/Buy-out ($94B)
13

Asset Finance & Renewable Power
14

Invest in Wind Power, not Solar PV
15

Solar PV’s High Growth Comes from Low Entry Barriers
16
*Small distributed capacity (SDC) of Solar PV is under 1MW.
(typically rooftop and small ground-mounted solar PV
installations.)
*This is a kind of distributed power generation if the power is
consumed in the distribution grid without transmission grid.
*Small distributed capacity and distributed power generation are
highly correlated with government policies.

The World’s Lowest System Price of Solar PV in Germany Doesn’t Help the Market.
• Subsidy curtailment will hit the UK market in 2016, just as it dampened demand
in Germany in 2015, sending small distributed capacity investment there down
57%.
• Japan remains by far the largest small distributed power market in the world,
thanks to still-generous feed-in tariffs and falling PV system costs.
17

LCOE Comparison (1:32.43)
• In late 2015, onshore wind is $83/MWh (NT$2.69/KWh), solar PV is $122/MWh
(NT$3.96/KWh), offshore wind is $174/MWh (NT$5.64/KWh), and solar
thermal/Parabolic trough with storage is $275/MWh (NT$8.92/KWh).
• IEA-STSAP & IRENA showed onshore wind power in 2014 is US$0.06-0.12/KWh
(NT$1.95-3.89/KWh), and offshore wind power with under 5MW turbines is US$0.1-
0.21/KWh (NT$3.24-6.81/KWh).
• The first offshore wind farm that used 6MW turbines is Westermost Rough which
was inaugurated on July 1st 2015.
• Using 6-8MW turbines and locating at a high-wind place, the LCOE of offshore
wind power is under NT$3/KWh. (Taipower’s average cost is NT$2.74/KWh)
18
Source: UNEP (United Nations Environment Programme), Bloomberg New Energy
Finance (2016), "GLOBAL TRENDS IN RENEWABLE ENERGY INVESTMENT 2016". Source: IEA-ETSAP, IRENA (2016), "Wind Power Technology Brief",

Big Investment Drop in High Solar PV Countries, Japan & Germany
19
• Japan’s largest source of new investment in renewable comes from SDC, small distributed
capacity/Solar PV. Germany has a -46% drop due to reduction of Solar PV.
• Japan’s residential electricity price is around NT$10.11~11.60/KWh. (1:0.3028). 3~4 times of
Taiwan’s price. FIT price of Solar PV under 10KW in Japan 2012 is NT$9.39-11.51/KWh.
• High ratio of nuclear power has made Japan paid a lot in nuclear disaster and high solar PV price.
• If Taiwan has high penetration of SDC, we will have double to triple electricity price soon or later.

Wind Power Leads Global Renewable Power Investment by 2040
20
Source: IEA, 2015

Power Mix Transformation Has Begun
21
53%
9%
16%
6%
17%

Renewable Power Generation by Technology
22

Energy versus Power/Electricity
• “Energy” is not equal to “Power”. Power is a secondary energy.
• We will focus on “Renewable Power” in the coming slides.
23
Source: IPCC (2011), Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation (SRREN)

Oil is seldom to generate power.
• Oil price has very small impacts on renewable power.
• If renewable power becomes “new baseload” and the world has a super
smart grid/energy IoT, the use of natural gas power (OCGT+CCGT) will
decline.
24
Source: IRENA (2015), "REmap 2030 - A Renewable Energy Roadmap, RENEWABLE ENERGY PROSPECTS: USA“ .

Carbon Capture Storage is Expensive
25
Source: US EIA

Mix of a Power System
• Fossil-fuels power includes coal, natural gas, and oil.
• A smart power system is rising.
• Other rare renewable power includes wave, tidal…etc.
26
Source: REN21 (2014), "RENEWABLES 2014 - Global Status Report“ & Maxwell Venture Service LLC (2016).
Coal, Natural Gas, Oil, Nuclear
Stupid Power System
Smart
Power
System

US Average Historical Electricity Prices & Grid Losses
27

Nuclear Power is Low-carbon, but not Clean and Cheap
• Wind power has great potential to replace nuclear power as a new baseload.
Lower CO2 emission,
Lower LCOE (Levelized Cost of Electricity/Energy,
Lower SCOE (Social Cost of Electricity).
• Cheap LCOE of coal and nuclear power today comes from tomorrow’s air ,
water, and food pollution. Remember “Fukushima nuclear disaster” and
“PM 2.5 in China”.
28
Source: NEA (2012), "Nuclear Energy and Renewables - System Effects in Low-carbon Electricity Systems".

Do not Invest CO2 Price/Emission Allowance
29
Source：Bernard Caillaud, Gabrielle Demange (2015), "Joint design of emission tax and trading systems", http://voxeu.org/article/joint-design-emission-tax-and-trading-systems

Future Energy System
30

Primary and Final Energy Demand in Taiwan 2012
31

Power Capacity by 2030
• Based on BNEF’s forecast, global power capacity will grow to 10,569GW by
2030.
• Wind power will have largest generations because of its average capacity
factor is 2 to 3 times than Solar PV.
Generation of Wind over Solar PV: 12% * 2 ~ 3 times / 18% = 1.33 ~ 2 times
What is important to you if you’re the CEO of Taipower?
32
Source: BNEF (2014), "Bloomberg New Energy Finance’s (BNEF) 2030 Market Outlook".
Source: IRENA (2015), "REmap 2030 - A Renewable Energy
Roadmap, RENEWABLE ENERGY PROSPECTS: USA“ .

Renewable Energy Mix by 2050
33
Source：IRENA (2016), "REmap: Roadmap for A Renewable Energy Future, 2016 Edition", http://www.irena.org/menu/index.aspx?mnu=Subcat&PriMenuID=36&CatID=141&SubcatID=1691

Be Careful of Power-bias in Taiwan
• Power-bias in Taiwan：Some people mentioned German successful
experiences in renewable power, but they highly recommend developing
Solar PV in Taiwan. In fact, wind power is the largest power source in
Germany. German government is decreasing the EEG/FIT of solar PV due
to expensive cost.
• They won’t tell you the average annual generation of Solar PV in Germany
is around 900 ~ 1100 KWh/KWp. (Taiwan is around 1250 KWh/KWp.)
34

Technical Potential Dominates the Future of Renewable Power
• Renewable power must consider local conditions/technical potential.
Solar PV and Biopower should not harm food supplies.
Utility-scale Solar PV has lower LCOE and higher generation than root-top.
Plenty of idle industrial land in Taiwan.
Food supply is also a national security issue. Taiwan’s food supply is under 35%.
EGS will be replaced by CEEG because most people will reject induced earthquakes.
I predict EGS will fail soon or later. We should put more attentions on CEEG.
35
Source: IRENA (2015), "REmap 2030 - A Renewable Energy Roadmap, RENEWABLE ENERGY PROSPECTS: USA“ .

Enterprises are Key Buyers of Green Power.
• US EPA’s Green Power Partnership National Top 100 (Released on April
25, 2016)
• Buyers are enterprises, governments, colleagues and universities, K-12
schools…etc.
Taiwan’s suppliers will be asked to use green power by their customers.
36
1. Intel Corporation 3,107,050,000 100% Technology & Telecom Solar, Wind
2. Microsoft Corporation 2,699,210,000 100% Technology & Telecom Biogas, Biomass, Solar,
Wind
3. Kohl's Department Stores 1,430,381,349 109% Retail Solar, Wind
4. Cisco Systems, Inc. 1,085,086,742 97% Technology & Telecom Solar, Wind
5. Google Inc. 1,061,619,944 36% Technology & Telecom Biogas, Solar, Wind
6. Apple Inc. 1,021,607,000 100% Technology & Telecom Biogas, Biomass,
Geothermal, Small-hydro,
Solar, Wind
7. Starbucks (company-
owned cafe retail stores)
970,920,339 100% Restaurants & Cafes Wind
8. City of Houston, TX 951,799,375 80% Govt. (Local, Municipal) Solar, Wind
9. Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. 826,343,726 4% Retail Biogas, Solar, Wind
10. U.S. Department of
Energy
810,030,662 15% Govt. (Federal) Biogas, Biomass, Small-
hydro, Solar, Wind
Source: https://www.epa.gov/greenpower/green-power-partnership-national-top-100

Investment Changes Direction from Generation to Super Smart Grid
• LCOE of renewable power is competing with fossil-fuel and nuclear power.
• Abandoned wind power and solar power in China
• Super Smart Grid = Transmission Grid + Distribution Grid + IoT
Super Grid = Transmission Grid + IoT
Smart Grid = Distribution Grid + IoT
It’s a world of energy IoT.
• Microgrid will keep in a stage of micro-scale for decades.
37

Energy Sector Project Risk Factors
• Energy sector is a chartered industry. Policies and regulations dominate most of
investment risk factors.
• KMT’s offshore wind power plan：4GW by 2030
• A new plan after DPP wined the president election：10GW by 2030
• ITRI Green Energy and Environment Research Laboratories changed their view all the
time and serve for politicians.
In 2011, ITRI GEERL said there are 8,326.2 Km2 (57GW) for offshore wind power in Taiwan.
Only 6.2GW can be developed.
In 2013, ITRI GEERL said there are 5,640 Km2 for offshore wind power in Taiwan. Only
29.37GW can be developed.
• A VC should have independent views beyond ITRI GEERL.
38
Source: IRENA (2015), "Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2014".

Nuclear Power is not as Cheap as Claimed
39

Nuclear Power is Losing its Market Share in China
40
Source: Bernard CHABOT, BCCONSULT (2015), "Wind power and nuclear electricity production in China, India, Brazil
and South Africa up to 2014"

Very High Subsidies of Nuclear Power
• The low LCOE of nuclear power comes from invisible government subsides.
41
Source：European Environment Agency (2016), "Renewable Energy in Europe 2016 - Recent Growth and Knock-on Effects"

Dangerous Extension of Nuclear Power Plants
42
Source: David Lochbaum (2016), "Nuclear power in the future: risks of a lifetime", published on "Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists", http://thebulletin.org/nuclear-power-future-risks-lifetime9185

32.97+% Chance of a Reactor Meltdown if Year of Operations >40 Years
43
Source: David Lochbaum (2016), "Nuclear power in the future: risks of a lifetime", published on "Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists", http://thebulletin.org/nuclear-power-future-risks-lifetime9185

The Decline of Nuclear and Coal is Sure
44

Power Concepts
45
• Generation：1 TWh (10億度電) ＝ 1 billion KWh
• 8.76TWh/GW per year, if capacity factor is 100%.
1 GW * 8,760 hours * 100% = 8760 GWh = 8.76 TWh
• Capacity Factor：The net capacity factor of a power plant is the ratio of its actual output over a
period of time, to its potential output if it were possible for it to operate at fullnameplate
capacity continuously over the same period of time.
Source: IEA (2013), World Energy Outlook Special Report

Global Wind Power 2015
46

Offshore Wind Power 2015
47

Global Wind Power Market by 2050
• CAGR from 2000-2050： (1) World：11.66%; (2) Onshore：10.73%; (3)
Offshore：23.71%。
2030, 1264GW
2050, 2834GW
2015, 13GW
2020, 46GW
2030, 297GW
2050, 1481GW
2015, 423GW
2020, 676GW
2050, 4315GW
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
CumulativeCapacity(GW)
Year
2000-2050 Global Wind Power Cumulative Capacity
Onshore Cumulative Capacity (GW) Offshore Cumulative Capacity (GW)
Global Cumulative Capacity (GW)
Source: GWEC, EWEA, AWEA, MAKE Consulting, Maxwell Venture Service LLC, 2015
Crazy Forecast?
48

World Wind Potentials 250TW@100m
• If wind turbines cover all areas in the world, there is 6,000TW.
• These saturation potentials are >250TW at 100 m globally, approximately
80 TW at 100 m over land plus coastal ocean (nearshore). (1TW=1,000GW)
• 4,315GW/250,000GW = 1.73%; 2,834GW/80,000GW = 3.54%.
• 2015 Global Wind Power Installation：432.883GW/250,000GW = 0.173%
• No need to worry about the weather problems.
Source: Mark Z. Jacobson, "Saturation wind power potential and its implications for wind energy", September 25, 2012 vol. 109 no. 39,
PNAS., http://www.pnas.org/content/109/39/15679.abstract
NO, It’s reasonable.
49

Small Wind Turbine was Dead since 2005
50

Average LCOE in Good to Excellent Wind Sites & US Wind Power Capacity
Source: Wind Vision:A New Era for Wind Power in the United States, US Department of Energy, 2015
51

US Onshore Wind LCOE without PTC, 1980-2050, $/MWh
Source: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Maxwell Venture Service LLC, 2015
52

Regional Effects on LCOE in the US
Source: Source: 2014 Wind Technologies Market Report, US Department of Energy, August 2015
US$62.5/MWh
(LBNL)
Interior is about
US$48/MWh, 23%
lower than Nationwide
53

US Onshore Wind LCOE without PTC, 1980-2050, NT$/KWh
Source: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Maxwell Venture Service LLC, 2015
USD/TWD=32.5
54

Source of UK Offshore Wind LCOE
• Roughly estimation by Maxwell： (the model doesn’t consider O&M inflation)
2010：150 ₤/MWh (US$227/MWh, NT$7.419/KWh)
2020：85 ₤/MWh (US$139/MWh, NT$4.204/KWh)
2030：55 ₤/MWh (US$83/MWh, NT$2.720/KWh)
2040：35 ₤/MWh (US$53/MWh, NT$1.731/KWh)
2050：25 ₤/MWh (US$38/MWh, NT$1.237/KWh)
Source 2005 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2017 2020 2023 2030
Crown Estate (₤/MWh) 140 140 140 140 90-100
BVG Associate
(₤/MWh) 110 80
NREL (₤/MWh)
160-
190 150-190 70-110 60-100
EY Associate (₤/MWh) 85
ORE Catapult
(₤/MWh)
136
(Works Completed)
136
(Works Completed)
121
(FID)
121
(FID)
121
(FID)
114
(CfD)
Prognos & Fichtner
(₤/MWh), Site A,
Germany, Scenario 2 90 81 68 57
Prognos & Fichtner
(₤/MWh), Site B,
Prognos & Fichtner
(₤/MWh), Site C,
Source：Crown Estate, BVG Associate, NREL, EY Associate, ORE Catapult, EWEA; sorting by Maxwell Venture Service LLC, 2015
Exchange Rate： GBP/USD=1.51551, GBP/EUR=1.42609391
55

11% Decline in LCOE in the UK this Year
• Results in 2015 confirmed an 11% decline in LCOE in the UK, ahead of a
predicted cost reduction pathway set out by the Crown Estate.
• Europe accounts for 92% of all offshore wind installations globally.
Growing at a five year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 31%, the
strong build-up of this emerging industry has resulted in total cumulative
installations topping 10 GW in 2015.
Crown Estate
Estimation
56

Estimation of Prognos & Fichtner
57

Asia Manufacturing Effects
• According to IRENA, average LCOE in China & India is around 43.75%
lower than OECD countries.
• We assume the price gaps are around 0% between 2000-2010, 40% to 30%
between 2010-2020, 30% to 20% between 2020-2030, 20% to 10% between
2030-2040, and 10% to 0% between 2040-2050.
58

Optimistic Wind Farm Variation 8-25% below Average
Optimistic Wind Farm Variation
8% below the average ???
25% below the average
59

Wind Farm Variation by BVG Association
60

LCOE of Offshore Wind Power by 2050 in EU
2010, ₤150
2020(f), ₤85
2030(f), ₤55
2040(f), ₤35 2050(f),₤25
2010, ₤90
2020(f), ₤60
2030(f), ₤44
2040(f), ₤32 2050(f), ₤25
2010, ₤112 2020(f), ₤63
2030(f), ₤41
2040(f), ₤26
2050(f), ₤19
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015(f)
2016(f)
2017(f)
2018(f)
2019(f)
2020(f)
2021(f)
2022(f)
2023(f)
2024(f)
2025(f)
2026(f)
2027(f)
2028(f)
2029(f)
2030(f)
2031(f)
2032(f)
2033(f)
2034(f)
2035(f)
2036(f)
2037(f)
2038(f)
2039(f)
2040(f)
2041(f)
2042(f)
2043(f)
2044(f)
2045(f)
2046(f)
2047(f)
2048(f)
2049(f)
2050(f)
LCOE(₤/MWh)
Year
LCOE of Offshore Wind Power by 2050
Maxwell Forecast (₤/MWh), EU Supply Chain
Maxwell Forecast (₤/MWh), Asia Supply Chain
Optimistic Wind Farm Variation (₤/MWh), EU Supply Chain
Source: Maxwell Venture Service LLC, 2015
GBP：USD 1.51551
GBP：TWD 49.4618146
GBP：EUR 1.42609391
Exchange Rate
61

LCOE of Offshore Wind Power by 2050 in Asia, 8% Wind Farm Variation
2010, NT$7.419 2020(f), NT$4.204 2030(f), NT$2.720 2040(f), NT$1.731 2050(f), NT$1.237
2010, NT$4.452
2020(f), NT$2.943
2030(f), NT$2.176 2040(f), NT$1.558 2050(f), NT$1.237
2010, NT$4.114
2020(f), NT$2.720 2030(f), NT$2.011 2040(f), NT$1.440 2050(f), NT$1.143
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015(f)
2016(f)
2017(f)
2018(f)
2019(f)
2020(f)
2021(f)
2022(f)
2023(f)
2024(f)
2025(f)
2026(f)
2027(f)
2028(f)
2029(f)
2030(f)
2031(f)
2032(f)
2033(f)
2034(f)
2035(f)
2036(f)
2037(f)
2038(f)
2039(f)
2040(f)
2041(f)
2042(f)
2043(f)
2044(f)
2045(f)
2046(f)
2047(f)
2048(f)
2049(f)
2050(f)
LCOE(NT$/KWh)
Year
LCOE of Offshore Wind Power by 2050
Maxwell Forecast (NT$/KWh), EU Supply Chain
Maxwell Forecast (NT$/KWh), Asia Supply Chain
Optimistic Wind Farm Variation (NT$/KWh), Asia Supply Chain
GBP：USD 1.51551
GBP：TWD 49.4618146
GBP：EUR 1.42609391
Exchange Rate
62

LCOE Gap between Offshore & Onshore Wind Power by 2050
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
500%
600%
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015(f)
2016(f)
2017(f)
2018(f)
2019(f)
2020(f)
2021(f)
2022(f)
2023(f)
2024(f)
2025(f)
2026(f)
2027(f)
2028(f)
2029(f)
2030(f)
2031(f)
2032(f)
2033(f)
2034(f)
2035(f)
2036(f)
2037(f)
2038(f)
2039(f)
2040(f)
2041(f)
2042(f)
2043(f)
2044(f)
2045(f)
2046(f)
2047(f)
2048(f)
2049(f)
2050(f)
Offshore Wind LCOE over Onshore Wind LCOE
UK Offshore over US Onshore Asia Offshore&Supply Chain over US Onshore
Optimistic UK Offshore over US Onshore Optimistic Asia Offshore over US Onshore
Due to Wind Farm Variation (25% lower than
average)
100~150% by 2050
237~425% in 2015
63

Taiwan Case (Without Grid Cost)
• Average Electricity Selling Price of Taipower is NT$2.0533/KWh in 2005,
and NT$3.0705 in 2014. CAGR from 2005 to 2014 is 4.57%.
• If we assume 1% CAGR from 2015 to 2050, NT$4.3932/KWh in 2050.
0.000
1.000
2.000
3.000
4.000
5.000
6.000
7.000
8.000
9.000
10.000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015(f)
2016(f)
2017(f)
2018(f)
2019(f)
2020(f)
2021(f)
2022(f)
2023(f)
2024(f)
2025(f)
2026(f)
2027(f)
2028(f)
2029(f)
2030(f)
2031(f)
2032(f)
2033(f)
2034(f)
2035(f)
2036(f)
2037(f)
2038(f)
2039(f)
2040(f)
2041(f)
2042(f)
2043(f)
2044(f)
2045(f)
2046(f)
2047(f)
2048(f)
2049(f)
2050(f)
TaiwanElectricityPriceorLCOE(NT$/KWh)
Year
Taiwan Electricity Price & Offshore Wind Power LCOE
Maxwell Forecast (NT$/KWh), EU Supply Chain
Maxwell Forecast (NT$/KWh), Asia Supply Chain
Optimistic Wind Farm Variation (NT$/KWh), Asia Supply Chain
Taipower Average Selling Price (NT$/KWh), 1% inflation
Cross Point：2017 to 2026
Source: Taipower, Maxwell Venture Service LLC, 2015
64

Taiwan Case (Considering Grid Cost)
• Grid Cost Assumption：NT$0.8/KWh (Current cost is NT$0.4811/KWh in 2015)
0.000
2.000
4.000
6.000
8.000
10.000
12.000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015(f)
2016(f)
2017(f)
2018(f)
2019(f)
2020(f)
2021(f)
2022(f)
2023(f)
2024(f)
2025(f)
2026(f)
2027(f)
2028(f)
2029(f)
2030(f)
2031(f)
2032(f)
2033(f)
2034(f)
2035(f)
2036(f)
2037(f)
2038(f)
2039(f)
2040(f)
2041(f)
2042(f)
2043(f)
2044(f)
2045(f)
2046(f)
2047(f)
2048(f)
2049(f)
2050(f)
TaiwanElectricityPriceorLCOE(NT$/KWh)
Year
Taiwan Electricity Price & Offshore Wind Power LCOE+Grid Cost
Maxwell Forecast (NT$/KWh), EU Supply Chain+Grid Cost
Maxwell Forecast (NT$/KWh), Asia Supply Chain+Grid Cost
Optimistic Wind Farm Variation (NT$/KWh), Asia Supply Chain+Grid Cost
Taipower Average Selling Price (NT$/KWh), 1% inflation
Cross Point：2023 to 2030
65

New “Electricity Formula (電價公式)” asked all electricity consumers to pay the FIT subsidies.
• New “Electricity Formula (電價公式)” asked all electricity consumers to pay the
FIT subsidies.
• DPP government’s 50TWh/year green power will need NT$150 ~ 250B of subsidies.
Subsidies of Solar PV in 2025：17.08 TWh * NT$3/KWh = NT$51B
Subsidies of Offshore Wind Power in 2025：9.99 TWh * NT$0.5/KWh = NT$5B (LCOE
NT$2.37/KWh)
Are you ready to pay ??? “Smart Grid” cost is not included.
66
Item Category 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
OnshoreWind 32.2 45.11 93.42 136.63 152.73
SolarPV 3.53 37.96 125.68 277.1 370.22
Total 35.73 83.07 219.1 413.73 522.95
OnshoreWind 3,323 10,868 23,511 31,335 37,875
SolarPV 151 650 9,259 18,625 40,472
Total 3,474 11,518 32,770 49,960 78,347
OnshoreWind 908 2,703 2,305 2,929 4,516
SolarPV 760 4,061 57,563 103,185 202,564
Total 1,668 6,764 59,868 106,114 207,080
OnshoreWind 0.273 0.249 0.098 0.093 0.119
SolarPV 5.033 6.248 6.217 5.540 5.005
Total 0.480 0.587 1.827 2.124 2.643
2010~2014 Taiwan Feed-In Tariff Analysis
CumullativeCapacity (MW)
Generation (10,000 KWh)
FIT(NT$10,000)
AverageFITin NT$/KWh
Source：MOEABOE,MaxwellVentureServiceLLC,2015
Source: DPP, 2016

Feed-In Tariff Policy in Germany Has Changed
67

Factors Driving Cost Reduction - Competitions
*Alstom was acquired by GE Renewable Energy in 2015.
**Asia players are not clear on the radar map, but Goldwind & Envision are competitive.
Source：NREL, 2014-2015 Offshore Wind Technologies Market Report, September 2015
Enercon, Suzlon ???
68

GE Renewable Energy’s Ambitions
• Anders Søe-Jensen, CEO of offshore wind power at GE Renewable Energy,
said GE has 2GW order backlog, the world’s 2nd largest order backlog behind
Siemens.
• Two months field test：99% availability & 80% capacity factor.
• GE acquired Enron Wind in 2002, and Alstom Power’s wind business in 2015.
• Turbine Capacity：The current offshore top range is 6 – 8.5MW, with a possible
ceiling at around 10MW. （Maxwell’s perdition：10MW turbine will be
series production in 2018~2019.）
• Backlog Project List (2,226MW)：Arcadis Ost 1 (348MW), Østerild
(6MW), Merkur offshore (396MW), Belwind (6MW), Fécamp (498MW),
Courseulles (450MW), Saint-Nazaire (480MW), Le Carnet (6MW), Block
Island (30MW), VOWTAP (12MW), Taiwan (6MW)
There might be another 1500MW in Taiwan.
69

Factors Driving Cost Reduction – Technology Improvements
• Larger Turbine：8MW to 50MW.
• Advanced Foundation (50 years)：Twisted Jacket, Active/Passive Floater.
• Availability：95% to 99% (with predictive maintenance O&M Strategy).
• IoT Technologies in wind turbine：500 sensors to 3,000 sensors, data collecting period
from 10 minutes to 40ms, GE’s industrial internet technologies and “Power Up”
technologies with up to 5% generation increase.
• IoT Technologies in wind farm：GE’s “Digital Wind Farm” technologies with 20+%
generation increase.
• Big Data-based wind forecast：day-ahead forecast error from 10% to 3% by IBM/The
Weather Company.
• Siemens’s new transport vehicles： cost savings of 15 to 20% current cost, or
US$0.1/KWh.
• Siemens’s new offshore grid solution：New connection solution can drive the price of
offshore wind power below US$0.1 (NT$3.3)/KWh by 2020, Total cost decrease of 30%,
Transmission capacity increased by 33%, transmission losses decreased by 20%.
• Turbine design life time：from 20~25 years to 40~50 years, around 11% LCOE
reduction per 5 years.
• Other Technologies：Segmented Smart Blades, Direct-Drive, Batteries, ….
70

Factors Driving Cost Reduction – Economies of Scale
• For a country (local supply chain)： 10GW cumulative installation capacity.
• For an offshore wind turbine manufacturer： 3.5GW/year (BVG Associate)
• For a model of offshore wind turbine：1,000 units.
• For a offshore wind farm：100 turbines.
Source：NREL, 2014-2015 Offshore Wind Technologies Market
Report, September 2015
71

Wind Farm CAPEX Forecast
Source：NREL, 2014-2015 Offshore Wind Technologies Market Report, September 2015
Below US$2,000/KW is Onshore Wind CAPEX Area
72

Larger Turbine is Cost-Competitive
• EU MFG：
8MW turbine will be US$1,500-2,000/KW
10MW turbine will be around US$1,500/KW
• Goldwind will deliver its 6MW offshore wind turbine in 2018.
China MFG：NT＄1.66~1.85/KWh by 2023. (My Article on Technews)
73

From Wind Farm Developer to Resource Developer & Protector
• Onshore Resource Developer：Onshore Wind Power + Livestock +
Agriculture +Tourism
• Offshore Resource Developer：Offshore wind power + Fish Farming +
Wave Power + Tourism
• It finds that large turbine arrays (300+ GW installed capacity) may
diminish(降低) peak near-surface hurricane wind speeds (最大近表面風速)
by 25–41 m/s (56–92 mph) and storm surge (暴風波浪) by 6–79%.
Source: Mark Z. Jacobson1, Cristina L. Archer, Willett Kempton, "Taming hurricanes with arrays of offshore wind turbines", NATURE
CLIMATE CHANGE | VOL 4 | MARCH 2014
74

Policy Ecosystem
• Green Power Market & Legislation：
Time-of-Use Power Price Market (時間電價)
Power Court (電力專業法院)
Power Arbitration Commission (電力仲裁委員會)
• Capital Market Related to Wind Power：
Wind Power Index (風電指數)
Wind ETF (風電ETF, not including Solar PV and others)
YieldCo (Energy REITs Concept)
Green Bond Market (Usually 70% CAPEX from debt financing)
National Green Fund (UK, Green Investment Bank)
PPA, Futures, Options of Power （電力的現貨、期貨與選擇權）
Other Financial Derivatives
Power Market is a Part of Financial Market
75

Ship Channel Problems
76
• 在观测期间(2011/10~2012/09)通行海峡南北的航次规模（3.55万）高达闽台
直航航次总数（7126）的5倍, 因此, 二者是海西水域的交通主流。
• Solution： new design of precautionary area (警戒區) in western Taiwan Strait
• Longer distance & curve channel of ship channel enhances national security. We
have more time to response.
Source: 陈金海, 陆锋, 李明晓. .海上主航迹带边界统计推断与海西航路警戒区布局优化分析[J].地球信息科学学报, 2015,17(10): 1196-1206

Submarine Grid of Taiwan Straits
• 28GW offshore wind power in Taiwan
(Phase 1)：39 sites, including 3
demonstration projects, around 3,125 Km2.
• Multi-terminal HVDC Lite Submarine
Grid： (1) Stabilizing the power grid with a
network between Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen,
Matsu; (2) lowering the cost for island power
(NT$1+B loss per year); (3) Transferring
offshore wind power to North Taiwan to
replace land-based transmission line.
• Upgrading Super Smart Grid：
Expanding “Smart Station” capacity alone
the west coast.
New Land-based transmission line to Taipei
City and New Taipei City.
• Maxwell predicted 100+GW offshore wind
power in Taiwan. (published on Technews)
We need a solution for oversupply in winter.
77

Solar PV is Expensive and the Market is Shrinking in the EU
• Will Taiwan make mistakes of EU again?
78
Source：European Environment Agency (2016), "Renewable Energy in Europe 2016 - Recent Growth and Knock-on Effects"

EEG’s Big Mistake
• Solar PV in 2010 occupied 38.62%
EEG subsidies and 14.48% power
generation.
• Wind Power in 2010 occupied 25.15%
EEG subsidies and 46.42% power
generation.
• Output/Input of Solar PV = 0.37,
Output/Input of Wind Power = 1.85
79
Source: Maxwell Venture Service LLC

Direct Normal Irradiation Decides Generation of Solar PV
• The unit of DNI is KWh/m2 per day or KWh/m2 per year
• The average DNI in the US is around 2 to 3 times than Taiwan.
The LCOE of solar PV in Taiwan is 2 to 3 times than the US.
80

DNI in Taiwan is Quite Low
81

Empirical Study in Taiwan
• 新北市大覺禪寺：10165 KWh/y /9450 W =
1.076 KWh/W-y。在沒有政府補助之下, （財
務上）約需要31年才能回收投資成本。（尚
不包含每年的維護成本）
• 高雄永安太陽能：6M KWh/y / 4.6MW =
1.304 KWh/W-y。高雄市安裝太陽能在沒有
政府補助的情況下, 需要25.6年才能回收。
• You and me pay the bill.
新的電價公式已經改成全體用電戶分攤綠電補
助。
綠電佔比越高，平均電價上漲幅度越大，用電
戶的負擔也越重。電價上漲是必然的趨勢。
升級超級智慧電網，消納太陽能也需要很多
錢。
能源使用也是一種基本人權：照顧低收入族群
很重要。例如，政府補助安裝節能設備，如
LED燈、變頻冷暖氣等…。
提高工業電價，促進產業升級。
利用閒置工業土地開發地面型/電力級太陽
82
＊Taiwan：1250 KWh/KWp-year
＊Germany：900~1100 KWh/KWp-year
＊Japan：900~1100 KWh/KWp-year
＊Arizona State：2380 KWh/KWp-year

SDC/FIT & Public Markets Pay the High Cost of Solar PV
83

In the Long Run, Solar PV Will Be Price-competitive
84

Solar PV is not Matured
• Utility-grade power should achieve 30% system capacity factor, but Solar
PV is around 15% right now.
• Utility-scale generator is beyond 6MW, but most solar PV system is under
1MWp.
85

We Can Not Achieve These Goals in Taiwan
86
• Average DNI/Insolation in Taiwan is 3.4, but Arizona State is 6.5
• System life time in Taiwan is around 8-12 years, not 30 years.
• Typhoon issues.
• Solution：Service + Landlord business model
Source: Josh Cornfeld (2014), "How Arizona’s Property Tax Ruling Will Affect State Solar Prices"
11.1 cents
11.6 cents
12.1 cents

Solar PV should replace OCGT/Light Diesel Oil Power first, and then Fuel Oil Power
• Fuel Oil + Light Diesel Oil：NT$52,605,344,436 (21X), 13,332,200,000 KWh (16X)
• Solar PV should replace OCGT/Light Diesel Oil first, and then Fuel Oil.
FIT Root-top NT$6.8/KWh + Grid Cost NT$0.85/KWh = NT$7.65 per KWh
FIT Utility Scale NT$4.6/KWh + Grid Cost NT$0.85/KWh = NT$5.45 per KWh
2015 Taipower Cost Analysis (based on budget plan)
Generation Type Electricity (KWh) Cost (NT$)
Unit Cost
(NT$/KWh)
Unit Cost,
including grid
cost (NT$/KWh)
Unit Cost, including
grid cost & operating
cost (NT$/KWh)
Fossil-Fuel： 129,295,200,000 300,806,502,000 2.3265 2.8076 3.0771
Coal 56,527,000,000 67,737,061,581 1.1983 1.6794 1.9489
Fuel oil 12,908,000,000 48,997,621,745 3.7959 4.2770 4.5465
Light diesel oil 424,200,000 3,607,722,691 8.5048 8.9858 9.2553
Gas 59,436,000,000 180,464,095,983 3.0363 3.5174 3.7869
Nuclear 35,418,000,000 31,051,803,000 0.8767 1.3578 1.6273
Hydro 3,649,000,000 7,473,631,000 2.0481 2.5292 2.7987
Renewable (Wind, Solar & Others) 825,000,000 2,536,748,000 3.0748 3.5559 3.8254
Pumped Hydro 3,025,000,000
Generation Cost 341,868,684,000 1.9852
Expense：
Transmission 172,212,200,000 35,929,135,000 0.2086
Distribution 172,212,200,000 46,918,948,000 0.2724
Grid Cost 82,848,083,000 0.4811
Other Operating Cost 172,212,200,000 305,802,000 0.0018
Marketing Expense 172,212,200,000 6,205,971,000 0.0360
Administration Expense 172,212,200,000 1,485,525,000 0.0086
R&D Expense 172,212,200,000 3,512,907,000 0.0204
Employee Traning Expense 172,212,200,000 642,341,000 0.0037
Non-operating Expense 172,212,200,000 34,258,495,000 0.1989
Operating Cost 46,411,041,000 0.2695
Grid+Operating Cost 129,259,124,000 0.7506
Total Cost 172,212,200,000 471,127,808,000 2.7357
http://www.taipower.com.tw/content/announcement/ann01.aspx?BType=6
87
（OCGT）
（CCGT）

Earthquake Power (地震發電) versus Geothermal Power (地熱發電)
• Pumping water underground at geothermal power plants can lead to
dangerous earthquakes even in regions not prone to tremors, according to
scientists. They say that quake risk should be factored into decisions about where
to site geothermal plants and other drilling rigs where water is pumped
underground – for example in shale gas fracking.
• However, the new evidence reveals the potential for much larger earthquakes, of
magnitude 4 or 5, related to the weakening of pre-existing undergrounds faults
through increased fluid pressure. (magnitude >2, Felt earthquakes)
• The analysis of the Californian site showed that for a net injection of 500m
gallons of water into the ground per month, there is an earthquake on average
every 11 days.
88
Source: The Guardian (2013) by Natalie Starkey, "Pumping water underground could trigger major earthquake, say
scientists", https://www.theguardian.com/science/2013/jul/11/fracking-water-injection-major-earthquakes

Types of Geothermal Power
89
Source：US Geothermal Energy Association (2016), "2016 Annual U.S. & Global Geothermal Power Production Report"

Earthquake Power Plant, Comprising Water Injection Well
• EGS (Enhanced Geothermal Systems) is a kind of Binary geothermal technology.
• Back Pressure (a kind of binary geothermal)：The condensate (冷凝水) and brine (鹽水) from
both of the subsystems are combined and re-injected into the reservoir.
90
Back Pressure Steam Turbine
Source：ORMAT (2016), "Integrated Combined Cycle Units Geothermal
Power Plants",
http://www.ormat.com/solutions/Geothermal_Integrated_Combined_Cycle

A System Overview of CEEG
• CEEG：Complex Energy Extraction from Geothermal resources
91
Source：NOX Holding AG (2014), "CEEG-TECHNOLOGY by BY PROF. BOHDAN
ZAKIEWICZ, PhD", http://umba.am/pics/2014/03/NOX-Holding.pdf

CEEG is a Future Technology
• All the data, information, graphs, tables, texts…etc. which are claimed by
any CEEG company ,doctor, and professor need to be verified very
carefully.
92
Source：NOX Holding AG (2014), "CEEG-TECHNOLOGY by BY PROF. BOHDAN
ZAKIEWICZ, PhD", http://umba.am/pics/2014/03/NOX-Holding.pdf
Reliability and Security are very important for power equipment.

Microgrid/Distributed Power is expensive and a niche market
• “Distributed Power Generation” is a power generation without transmission grid.
• As of 2Q 2013, Navigant Research has identified a total of 3,793 MW of total microgrid
capacity throughout the world, up from 3,179 MW in the previous tracker update in 4Q 2012.
• 3,793MW/5,579,000MWW = 0.068%
• Microgrid/Distributed Power is a very very niche market.
• People with energy-bias see this niche market as a main stream. They lied to you.
• Again, the additional cost of microgrid/distributed power is paid by you and me.
93
Source: Navigant Research (2013), “Microgrid Deployment Tracker 2Q13”. Source: BNEF (2014), "Bloomberg New Energy Finance’s (BNEF) 2030 Market
Outlook".

Microgrid/Small Distributed Capacity Investment
94

Super Grid in Asia
95

Renewable Power Will Fail without Super Smart Grid
• Where is Taiwan’s Super Grid Strategy?
• Smart Meter is not the core. Smart Dispatching & Super Grid are dual
cores for a smart power system.
96

Grid Profits over Costs
97

Slow Super Grid Development Makes Fast Growing of Offshore Wind Power in China
98

Phase 1 of Submarine Grid of Taiwan Straits
99
Northern Delivery of Offshore Power

A lot of Wind and Solar PV Power Will be Abandoned after 2020 without Grid Upgrade
• Grid Cost of Solar PV in Taiwan, NT$0.85/KWh
Unfortunately, Taipower’s 345KV transmission grid is totally 5,545MW. It can’t afford 20GW
Solar PV from the southern Taiwan to northern Taiwan. There are 16-20GW offshore wind
power from Changhua to Taipei.
There will be a lot of wind and solar PV power abandoned after 2020 if Taipower doesn’t upgrade its
transmission grid.
• Transmission grid should be upgraded to super grid with IoT capabilities.
100
Source: Taipower, 2016 Source: Maxwell Venture Service LLC, 2016

Grid Power Storage
• Power Storage smooths the output curve.
• 30 seconds storage is a must, and 10 minutes (automatic generation control) is good.
It’s not necessary to store over 10 minutes due to high cost of storage solutions.
• Wind farm storage is around 2 minutes. Storage (MWh)/Wind Capacity (MW) =
1:30
• If Taipower has a 30 minutes grid power storage system, it will be very expensive.
101

Solar PV plus Energy Storage is a Nightmare
102
NT$6.84/KWh
NT$9.83/KWh
NT$4.15/KWh
NT$3.08/KWh
NT$3.89/KWh NT$4.09/KWh
NT$8.11/KWh
NT$5.80/KWh
NT$6.42/KWh
NT$6.23/KWh
It’s stupid to have 2 hours storage right now, and only 2 minutes is sufficient.

The Challenges of Operating a Grid with High Renewable Penetration
103
Source: ICF International, "The Dynamic Challenge of Integrating Variable Resources", http://www.powermag.com/the-dynamic-challenge-of-integrating-
variable-resources/?pagenum=2

Energy IoT
104

SCADA is very Key to Energy IoT
105

Wrong Scenario Leads the Wrong Roadmap
106

Criteria for Evaluating Roles of Energy Sources
107
Source：US DOE (2012), "Role of Alternative Energy Sources: Wind Technology Assessment", http://netl.doe.gov/File%20Library/Research/Energy%20Analysis/Publications/DOE-NETL-2012-1536.pdf

Financial Industries Help Renewable Industries
108

YieldCo (Stock) & Green Bond
• Be careful of “Agent Problems” & “Fintech Fraud”.
109
Source: NREL (2014), "A Deeper Look into Yieldco Structuring", by Marley Urdanick
Source: UNEP (United Nations Environment Programme), Bloomberg New
Energy Finance (2016), "GLOBAL TRENDS IN RENEWABLE ENERGY
INVESTMENT 2016".

100% Renewable Energy World by 2050
110
Source: Source: Mark Z. Jacobson, Mark A. Delucchi, Guillaume Bazouin, Zack A. F. Bauer, Christa C. Heavey, Emma Fisher, Sean B. Morris, Diniana J. Y. Piekutowski,
Taylor A. Vencill and Tim W. Yeskoo (2015), "100% clean and renewable wind, water, and sunlight (WWS) all-sector energy roadmaps for the 50 United States", published on Energy & Environmental Science

Contact Information
111

Q&A
Proactive Professionalism

麥斯管理顧問公司陳世芳執行長
再生能源的發展趨勢
創投的產業分析
智慧能源與智慧電力系統
再生能源概論
太陽能發展趨勢
地熱發電發展趨勢
Q＆A
2016/5/11
15:30-17:30

Developing Trends of Renewable Energy-small size

Recommended

Recommended

More Related Content

Viewers also liked

Viewers also liked (9)

Similar to Developing Trends of Renewable Energy-small size

Similar to Developing Trends of Renewable Energy-small size (20)

Developing Trends of Renewable Energy-small size