sustainable development

1. 1
Development Planning
in Pakistan
Concepts & Practices
PUNJAB AS A CASE
by
DR. SHAHID ADIL

2. 2
Sequence

3. • According to DICKINSON(1966) the planning is the
making of major economic decisions what and how is to be
produced, how ,when and where is to be produced , to
whom it is to be allowed, by the conscious decision of a
determined authority, on the basis of comprehensive
survey of the economic system as a whole.
• Planning can be defined as a continuous process , which
involves decisions or actions about alternative ways of
using available resources, with the aim of achieving
particular goals within specific time- future.
Economic planning East and West : lectures by H.D. Dickinson, N. Cuthbert, D. Swann
Planning

4. 4
• Development” means making a better life for everyone.
• National development refers to the ability of a nation to improve the lives of its citizens.
• Development Planning (DP) is about decisions and chosen actions for mobilizing and using available
resources for attaining desirable goals
• Measures of improvement may be material, such as an increase in the gross domestic product, or social,
such as literacy rates and availability of healthcare.
Development Planning

5. 5
• 1962 -What was the main idea of Rachel
Carson's Silent Spring?
• The overarching theme of Silent
Spring is the powerful—and often
negative—effect humans have on the
natural world. Carson's main argument
is that pesticides have detrimental
effects on the environment; she says
these are more properly termed
"biocides" because their effects are
rarely limited to the target pests.
New Concept for Development

6. 6
The Population Bomb is a best-
selling book written by Stanford
University Professor Paul R.
Ehrlich and his wife, Anne
Ehrlich, in 1968. It predicted
worldwide famine in the 1970s
and 1980s due to overpopulation,
as well as other major societal
upheavals, and advocated
immediate action to limit
population growth
New Concept for Development

7. 7
New Concept for Development
“If the present growth trends in world
population, industrialization, pollution,
food production, and resource depletion
continue unchanged, the limits to growth
on this planet will be reached sometime
within the next one hundred years. No S
shape recovery will be possible- First
Forecast-2100
• Message of hope, as well: If Man
imposes limits on himself and create a
carefully selected global equilibrium
between population and production-
he can live indefinitely -Sustainable
Development .

8. 8
Nightmare to Reality
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/02/limits-to-growth-was-right-new-research-shows-were-nearing-collapse

9. 9
Towards Sustainable Development

10. 10
 Current development that does not
jeopardize the development of future
generations
 Inter-generational harmony
 Balancing act: Honor the limits as we
continue to improve our well being
Sustainable Development

11. 12
Journey Towards Sustainable Development

12. 13
The Agenda 2030- What is
Different ?

13. 14
The Club of Rome, the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, the
Stockholm Resilience Centre and the Norwegian Business School 1980-2100
Two scenarios -Too Little,-Too Late and The Giant Leap – Explores how
population, economies, resource use, pollution, wellbeing and social tensions
might change this century based on decisions made in this decade-
-First Scenario - rise in global temperatures exceeding the target stipulated in
the Paris Agreement (below 2 preferably 1.5 degrees Celsius ) – Global
Temperature soar to about 2.5 by 2100)- very Difficult
-The Giant Leap Scenario is achievable if societies adopt unprecedented and
immediate action across five interconnected turnarounds:
• Ending poverty through reform of the international financial system, lifting
3-4 billion people out of poverty
• Addressing gross inequality by ensuring that the wealthiest 10% take less
than 40% of national incomes
• Empowering women to achieve full gender equity by 2050
• Transforming the food system to provide healthy diets for people and
planet by 2050
• Transitioning to clean energy to reach net zero emissions by 2050
Legacies of The Limits to Growth-Not 50 but 10

14. • Global inequality and poverty- income and wealth
inequality, poverty reduction, and social welfare
• Environmental and sustainability - climate change,
resource depletion, and environmental degradation
• Technological and digital revolution- automation,
digitalization, and new technologies.
• Political and governance issues- political polarization,
the rise of populism, and erosion of democratic
institutions.
- addressed through a combination of economic policies, including fiscal and monetary policies, as well as
structural reforms and investment in education, innovation and infrastructure.--international cooperation
Future Economic Policy Challenges

15. Planning Process for Development
Source:, Presenter’s own description

16. • Policies
• Plans
• Perspective Plan 10-25 years
• Mid Term Plan 04-07 years
• Rolling Plan 03 Years
• Annual Plan 01 Year
• Transformation of Plans into Programs and Project
Policies Plans Projects
Implemented through Annual Development Programe
(ADP)
17
Main Instruments of Development Planning
Source:, Presenter’s own description

17. 18
Does Development Policies Matter?
•In 1960, Ghana had a higher
per capita GDP than Thailand.
• Ghana’s per capita GDP was
almost eighty percent of the
level of per capital GDP in
South Korea.
• In 2009, Ghana’s per capita
GDP in real purchasing power
terms had increased by just
under 23 percent, while
Thailand’s grew eight-fold, from
$897 to $7,260.
• And South Korea, whose per
capita GDP stood at $1832 in
1960, reached $25,593 in 2009,
an increase of 1,391 percent.
• After 1950s 10 largest Econmy

18. • Second decade of the 20th century (1919-20), after the
First World War, Russia introduced ‘Goelro’ plan focusing
rural electrification in Russia and covered a period of 10 to
15 years.
• The National Planning Commission of United Soviet
Socialist Republican ‘GOSPLAN’ was set up in February
1921 in Moscow.
• The era of medium-term plans or five-year plans started in
1928 with the launching of the first Five year Plan (1928-
32) by Joseph Stalin- slowly swept over almost two third of
the entire world.
Evolution of Development Planning

19. • During 1930s the whole world was affected by great depression, only USSR was
exempted
• Bretton wood System 1944-The Bank for Reconstruction & Development
• Success of planning in USSR convinced the policy makers of importantce of state role
in economic planning and resource extraction-Molotov plan-1949 renamed
COMECON -encouraging spread of communism.
• Marshall Plan( 1948) ,European Recovery Plan after WW-II the importance of capital
in economic development-to stop spread of communism
20
Evolution of Development Planning

20. • With the advent of Planning in USSR, few individuals and institutions made efforts to
make plans
• Nation was conscious about the significance of planned development Dadabhai Naoroji (1825 –
1917), M. C. Ranade, (1842-1901), R. G. Dutt (1848 – 1909) wrote extensively on the social and
economic problems of the Indians.
• During the long period of India’s struggle for freedom, there remained concern for the problems of
mass poverty, protection of the farmer and the artisan, the need for industrialization and, the
reconstruction of the entire fabric of social and economic life.
• In 1934 a renowned Civil engineer, Statesman and ex-dewan of the state of Mysore Sir M
Visvesvaraya formulated a ten year plan for economic development of the country in his book
“Planned Economy for India.” for doubling India’s national income
21
Development Planning before Independence

21. • Government of India Act – 1935, introduced provincial autonomy- Congress
Governments in eight provinces.
• In 1937 the Congress Working Committee suggested scheme of national reconstruction
and social planning.
• In 1938 Subhash Chandra Bose initiated formal planning through National Planning
Committee ,later on Jawaharlal Nehru headed the Committee. – nine years before
independence
• In 1944, a Department of Planning and Development was set up
• In 1944, eminent industrialists and economists of Bombay Sir Purshottamdas Thakurdas,
Mr. J.R.D. Tata and six others published a development plan, called Bombay plan.
• In 1945 late M.N. Roy prepared ‘People Plan’ (a ten year plan)’ emphasizing on
agricultural and consumer goods through state owned industries.
22
Development Planning before Independence

22. • Development Board was established early in 1948
• In 1950 a Six-Year Development Plan was formulated and embodied in the Colombo Plan for Cooperative
Economic Development in South and South East Asia..
• Planning Board: 18th July, 1953
• To develop the resources of the country as rapidly as possible so as to promote the welfare of the people,
provide adequate living standards, and social services, secure social justice and equality of opportunity to all
and aim at the widest and most equitable distribution of national wealth.
• Planning Commission On 22nd October 1958
• Functions & Structure Changes from time to time
• Development Planning Regime under 1973 Constitution
Planning Commission at Federal level/Federal ministries/Divisions and Provincial Planning &
Development Boards/Departments/line departments-Restructured/Reorganized time to time.
23
Development Planning in Pakistan
Source:, Planning Commission

23. Part V: Constitution,1973 Chapter 3: Special Provisions
Article 156
The National Economic Council- review the overall condition of the country, advise Federal Government
and the Provincial Governments in formulate of plans; ensure balanced development and regional equity.
Article 153-154
Council of Common Interest (CCI)- -formulate and regulate policies in relation to matters in Part II of
the Federal Legislative List-National planning and economic coordination
Article 79- Custody, etc., of Federal Consolidated Fund and Public Account
The Federal Public Finance Management Act, 2019-Chapter III-Development and Maintenance and
use of Public Assets. Sections 13-20-deals with development Projects - Planning Commission
Article 139 Conduct of business of Provincial Governments-
Article 140-A-Local Governments
Public Financial Management Act,2022 Chapter V-Public Investment
24
Relations between Federation and Provinces
Source:, Presenter’s own description

24. Needs
• Social, economic, services, recurrent
Resources
• Financial, human, strategy, material, Time
Institutions
• Research, Planning, coordination,
financing, implementation, monitoring
Stakeholders
• People/tax payer, people’s representatives,
civil society, donors, bureaucracy
Ingredients and Key determinants of Planning/Development
• Fiscal space
• Vision, manifestos and long-term plans
• Ongoing portfolio/liabilities and throw
forward
• Donor related commitments
• Absorption capacity
INGREDIENTS KEY DETERMINANTS
Source:, Presenter’s own description

25. • National Economic Council
• Planning Document(Annual/Medium Term Plan),Vision, Policy, Strategy
• Assistance and Partnership with Donor
• Line Ministries/ Public Sector Corporations- Provinces-Line
Departments/Bodies- Based upon their sectoral strategies/Plans
• Public Representatives/NGOs/Pressure Groups
• Policy Debates
26
How Projects are Identified
Source:, Presenter’s own description

26. • History
• Introduced in September
1952-Harvard Model
• Revised by Group of Experts
1995 including World Bank
• 14 Forms for various Sectoral
Projects
• Present
• Three Sectoral PC
Performa(Infrastructure,
Social Sector and Production
Sector)
• Five Performa for different
phases of Project Cycle
27
Project life cycle & Project Preparation Formats
Source:, Planning Commission

27. 28
Project Preparation Formats
PC-IV
Source:, Planning Commission

28. 29
PSDP Formulation-Federal
Government
PC-EAD &
FD
Source:, Planning Commission

29. 30
Planning Architecture in Pakistan
Source:, Planning Commission

30. 31
Planning Architecture in Pakistan
Source:, Planning Commission

31. Formulation of ADP & Planning Process
Planning & Development Board, Punjab

32. 33
Guiding Documents for Public Investment in Punjab
Source:, Presenter’s own Selection

33. Pillars of Punjab Growth Strategy-23
34
Punjab Growth Strategy-23
Vision :“A globally connected and competitive, equitable, culturally vibrant and technologically advanced
Punjab with sustainable economic growth driven through a dynamic private sector, an efficient public sector,
rich and productive human capital and, a regionally equalized development footprint by 2023”
Prioritized
public
investment
Coordination
with
FG
for
key
macroeconomic
variables-SDGs
etc
Focus
on
human
capital
Investment
Private
sector
led
investment
and
growth
Focus
on
sectors
having
comparative
advantage
Source: PGS-23, P&DB

34. 35
Punjab Growth Strategy 2023
Source: PGS 23, P&DB

35. .
FINANCE
DEPARTMENT
PLANNING
&
DEVELOPMENT
BOARD
LINE
DEPARTMENTS
PROVINCIAL
ASSEMBLY
/
CM
/
GOVERNOR
STAGE I STAGE II STAGE III STAGE IV STAGE V
Resource
Availability
Estimation
Ascertaining
Inter
Sectoral
Priorities
Tentative ADP Size
Sector-Wise Allocation
ADP Formulation
Guidelines
Schemes Formulation
Preliminary Draft of
Departmental ADP
Meetings/
Prioritization
/
Review
by
CM
Draft
ADP
Finalization
Authentication &
Approval
ADP Formulation-Stages
Financing of ADP. Provincial Contribution,
Federal Assistance, External Assistance Source: Planning Manual, P&DB

36. 37
ADP Guidelines
Source:, P&DB

37. 38
ADP Guidelines
Source:, P&DB

38. .
39
Project Need
Assessment
by Line Dept.
Project Identification
Does
the
Project
cost is
more
than Rs
1000
M?
Make
PC II
Make
PC I
If
feasible
PC I
document
with
necessary
details/ana
lysis go to
approving
body-
based on
project
cost
Conduct
Feasibility
Appraisals
Approval-Did
Approving
Body Approve
the Project
Implement
Terminate
Submit
Revised
PC I
• For PPP Project send
to PPPA for Processing
• If foreign Assistance or
Federal Component
involved or Project
related to Irrigation
sector -send to
CDWP/ECNEC after
recommendation from
PDWP
Process flow for Development Projects
Source: Planning Manual, P&DB

39. .
40
Process flow for Development Projects
Project Implementation
Issuance
of AA
Release of
Funds-FD
Monitoring
-AD,P&DB
Project
Completion
Project
Evaluation
Non-
Dev
Terminate
Source: Planning Manual, P&DB

40. 41
Guiding Principles of ADP 2022-23
Source: ADP 2022-23, P&DB

41. 42
Rs Million 22%
Trends of Total Budget Vs ADP
Source: ADP 2022-23, P&DB

42. Sector 2021-22 2022-23 Increase % Increase
Social Sector 205.5 272.6 67.1 33
Infrastructure
Development
145.4 164.3 18.9 13
Production
Sector
57.9 41.4 -16.5 -28
Services
Sector
23.4 14.8 -8.6 -37
Others 36.4 37.4 1.0 3
Special
Initiatives
64.4 109.5 43.1 65
PPP 25.0 45.0 20 80
43
Rs.685 M-22%
Source: ADP 2022-23, P&DB
Sectoral Priorities ADP 2022-23

43. 44
Analysis of ADP 2022-23
Aging Analysis
No. of schemes initiated during:
• Last 5 years 4855
• 5 to 10 years 846
• More than 10 years 52
Rs. Billion
Source: ADP 2022-23, P&DB

44. 45
Project Constraints

45. • Inadequacy of reliable data-incorrect assumptions, unrealistic cost estimates-over estimation of
benefits
• Lack of proper cost-benefit, risk assessment, sensitivity analysis, stakeholder consultation,
environmental and sustainability analyses. Improper rough estimation of scope and cost- technical,
economic, financial, and environmental appraisal
• Lack of proper implementation schedule, coordination between the relevant agencies.
• Challenges in land acquisition such as litigation, right of way, and relocation of utilities, frequent
changes in taxation and rates
• Misinterpretation of government directions- confusion in policy matters. Litigation issues in staffing
and procurements. Frequent transfers of project staff
• lack a sense of ownership- problems identified by the Project Monitoring Team during the M&E phase
are often overlooked. PC-IV and PC-V are submitted infrequently.
46
Issues

46. • Current Expenditures are crowding out Development Expenditures
• The lack of sectoral plans to guide the selection of appropriate public investments
• Resource Constraints-Non availability of funding as per physical phasing-Implementation delays
• Absence of systems to ensure proper maintenance and routine rehabilitation of completed public assets. No
system to keep asset records
• Leakages/corruption-Weak accountability- Absence of monitoring feedback and learning loops
• Unable to spend according to plans-laps of funds
• Capacity of P&DB and line departments in Planning, Appraisals and Execution & coordination-Increasing
share of unapproved projects in ADP-Inter-district inequalities
• Fragmentation of ADP in too many projects -Thin Funding-longer time frame for completion-frequent
revisions-cost & time over run-Increasing throw forwards
47
Issues

47. • Projects should be evidence based-Research-There should be Sectoral Plans/Policies/Strategies for
Public Investment in line with National Objectives
• Duplications be removed-Consultancy and contingency charges should be rationalized
• A formal criterion be devised for inclusion of projects in ADP & allocations-
• Block Allocations and Subsequent additions in ADP should be stopped.
• Non feasible projects should not be included in ADP.
• Schemes where utilization is less that 25% with more than 10 years may be considered for
closures
48
Suggestions

48. • Streamline release of funds and project Procurement processes.
• Introduction/Strengthening ICTs at each phase of the project cycle and assets records
• Capacity building of the P&DB and line departments for Identification, preparation, appraisal
,execution, Monitoring & Evaluation of projects
49
Suggestions

49. • How to address increasing throw forwards
• How to manage frequent revisions in
projects-control, time and cost overrun-
design change, up scaling and change in
rates-Inflation-land acquisitions-legal issues
• How to ensure funding as per approved
phasing
50
Points to Ponder

50. .Better
&
And ……….. STRONG INSTITUTIONS
51
Solution lies in……….

51. 52
For readings
Source:, Presenter’s own selection

52. 53
For practitioners’ guidance
Source:, Presenter’s own selection

53. Thanks
To contact: shahidadil313@hotmail.com
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